It appears than many believe that recent inflation involves the following short-term drivers (10-30 years):
-Years of QE
-Years of forced low interest rates
-Interruptions caused by covid & Ukraine war
-Reduction in planned new mines coming on-line (iron ore, coal, lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, etc.) Note that it can take 5-15 yrs for new mines to come online
In addition to the above short-term causes, I have also read/heard theories that involve the following probable long-term inflationary factors (70 - 100+ years):
-Diminishing human reproduction, resulting in existing and on-going labor shortages world-wide for years and possibly decades to come
-Corporate consolidation resulting from governmental loosening on anti-trust policy and/or enforcement. The lack of proper competition has allowed corporate conglomerates to drive corporate profits higher than historically. In theory, corporate greed is one of the contributors to rising prices on many goods/services.
-Diminishing raw resources (oil, water, top soil, metals, etc.) Future supply bottlenecks and shortages may become a more common trend in the future.
-Government Policy or the lack of timely government policy has allowed climate change to get away from us, which will cause more disruptions (extreme weather impacts, rising sea levels, water shortages, impacts to food supplies, etc).
- Increased Globalization has caused the world to become more interdependent.........interruptions in a major supplier of a commodity or an economic hardship in one area causes a ripple affect across other economies.
- Government policies supporting or at least allowing wealth concentration in a small percentage of society and the shrinking of the middle-class has made economies less resilient
If countries continue to raise their interest rates, it will eventually cause recessions/depressions, which would likely cause spikes in unemployment. Instead of getting ahead of inflation, the result may be stagflation.
Do you agree with the bulk of the ideas above?
Do you do think stagflation is likely in our future and if you do, how long do you think it will last?
P.S. Please don't turn this post into a political blame game.