The post formerly sarcastically titled "Doom?"

[hellommm]

I don't really think we're doomed, but my wife thought it'd be a catchier subject line :P

Saw this a couple years ago and it came up again when I was talking with a non-Mustachian friend about reasons why frugality is great. I remember thinking it was good, but couldn't remember much so I ended up re-watching it with my wife and thought it would be good to share here as well. To me, it's a bit like preaching to the choir here, but still feel it's worth a watch and share. At the end of the video my wife and I felt like the whole Mustachian ideology aligns nicely with their call to action.

basically he provides data as to declining natural resources as of late. talks about economy, environment, and energy and in the end a very mustachian call to action: invest in community, reduce fossil fuel use, eat local, boost emergency preparedness, and improve health.

Accelerated Crash Course 2014 by Chris Martenson at PeakProsperity.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYyugz5wcrI

The above video is a condensation of the 4.5-hour long full Crash Course video series. The data and analysis underlying the material represent over a decade of intensive research and study. Over that decade, its forecasts have proved increasingly validated by events like the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007, the 2008 credit crisis and the anemic 'recovery' since, oil prices persistently over $100 per barrel, the five-fold rise in gold prices, and many other symptoms of an unsustainable world economy reaching its failure point. Sadly, the risks warned of in this video are very real, and they are arriving now.

[UKMustache]

I'm in work so I can't watch a video, care to summarise?

[accolay]

Meh. I watched a bit of it since I'm one of the "intelligent independent minded people," right? The beginning of the video makes it seem like it's going to blow your mind, of course. Some is common sense for people on this forum, other  parts are debatable. Premise is "buy gold and prepare because we're printing too much money while our energy production will run out and we're destroying the environment."

[hellommm]

i'd say that it's worth watching the whole thing. your summary is pretty accurate, but of course oversimplified and i found the details to be quite interesting. in the end, one of his suggestions is indeed to own at least a little bit of gold/silver, but to me was a minuscule part of the message

[marty998]

You need an optimism gun.

We don't deal in doom on this forum*. We plug along and keep buying shares whenever we can.

*Except for the handwringing on the 2739 different election threads, but this too shall pass.

[hellommm]

You need an optimism gun.

lol my optimism gun is working just fine :) first line of my post "I don't really think we're doomed, but my wife thought it'd be a catchier subject line :P"

optimism doesn't mean one should be blinded from reality either ;) like i said, i think there's good info within. the video also states that it is not about doom or bringing anyone down. it is to inform and that ultimately a mustachian lifestyle is a good way to proceed!

[StreetCat]

A few years ago I read/heard what Chris Martensen had to say.

One of the things I distinctly remember him talking about was "peak oil".  Since then, oil prices have crashed, with no sign of ever reaching those previous highs again.  Someone on this forum (or may be on bogleheads, I'm not sure) pointed out that while Chris had repeatedly talked about hyper-inflation, his own subscription fees hadn't increased in many years :-)

I'm not saying that he is wrong.  But, the correction of any valuation errors in an economy can take decades to play out.  As they say, "the markets can remain irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent".

His predictions may come true, some day.  I don't know when.  In the meanwhile, I think the best I can do is to diversify well.

[hellommm]

absolutely!

i guess i was a bit too optimistic in thinking people would actually read my post and watch the video, let alone to the end, before responding :P

in the end his recommendations are (of course he goes into more detail):
1) invest in community
2) protect the purchasing power of your financial wealth. his specific here is to own at least some gold/silver, but i think diversify is just as appropriate
3) reduce fossil fuel use
4) eat local
5) boost emergency readiness
6) improve your health

as i said in my original post, hes preaching to the choir here. but i found the data he provides throughout to be fascinating and just thought i'd share

[bobechs]

I'm not going to sit and watch a video in order to comment in detail on some doom-sayer prediction for the immediate future.

I'm almost not willing to take the time to even comment on the phenomenon it represents.

Almost, but not quite.  I've been around since Eisenhower was President (missed Truman by a few years) and during that span there has never been a time that this precise brand of drivel has not been marketed, in one form or another.

The only thing that has changed is that instead of being offered a pamphlet or a broadsheet you are importuned to watch (yet another) time-wasting video.

No thanks.

And no, it isn't different this time.

[hellommm]

if you don't want to watch, why bother post on something you don't really know anything about?

actually, change is a natural part of our universe, so really it is different this time and every time ;) change is also how we all grow and become better! some aspects may be unchanging though, and i can agree with that :)

ok ok, i get the picture folks. i think the title of the post wasnt as good/fun idea as i thought :P i didn't mean to strike a chord with you! sure, i don't agree with all that was laid out in the video, but like i keep saying i felt there was some good interesting info in there and support the message of living a more mustachian lifestyle overall.

retitled the post for future readers

have a great life!

[bobechs]

I posted precisely to say I was not going to watch.  You don't rack up any points by belaboring that.

I have in fact heard all this before, over years and years of dreary repitition.  Many, many times.  With tiny, tiny differences each time.

It is not thought-provoking.

But it is provoking.  You have that miniature success secure in the bag.

[hellommm]

im sorry you feel that way. im not trying to provoke anything or anyone. i genuinely thought it was interesting and thought others might think so as well. ive certainly not been around since eisenhower so ive got much less experience under my belt for sure. the only success i was hoping for was to share some info i thought was interesting and apparently im failing at that

[soccerluvof4]

It can be tough on here sometimes when you post things even with the best intent.  I have done so myself and people have disrespected or misunderstood my intent or tried to show me how smart they are instead of just ignoring the thread.  Having said that scare tactics have been around forever and perhaps someday somebody will be right just like the person that thinks there dying everyday....eventually they will. The problem is what do you do until then since you don't know when then is. Keep going with your plan, be diversified which everyone has ever said anyhow and there is always the argument of owning gold or not. In the late seventies early 80's we were all going to freeze to death, solar systems you had to buy but none of them worked worth a shit. Now were all going to melt. The earth/climate changes that's inevitable as sure will the market and the world economy. Most of this is money making at its best but there is always some good in it as well.

[arebelspy]

It's not your joking title we think is dumb, and should be shot with an optimism gun, it's the fearmongering * video.

Stop listening to stuff like that which isn't rooted in reality.  Your life will be much, much better.  :)

[Metric Mouse]

im sorry you feel that way. im not trying to provoke anything or anyone. i genuinely thought it was interesting and thought others might think so as well. ive certainly not been around since eisenhower so ive got much less experience under my belt for sure. the only success i was hoping for was to share some info i thought was interesting and apparently im failing at that

This is a pretty good place to get a diversity of opinions and lots of interesting discussion on any topic. Just because people don't agree with you doesn't make you wrong. There's so much to learn; the wide base of knowledge on this forum is a great place to expand your own experience. Thank you for sharing.

[Syonyk]

Stop listening to stuff like that which isn't rooted in reality.  Your life will be much, much better.  :)

The summary of most videos along that path can be summed up as, "Infinite exponential growth on a finite planet is going to run into problems at some point."  The details vary, the timelines vary, but that's the core of it.

==============

I haven't seen that specific video (and generally prefer to read things over watching video, just as a personal preference for how I let things filter into my mind), but I'm quite familiar with the concept, and am working towards making my early retirement robust/resilient/anti-fragile against such things, where I can.

My wife is fully onboard with this, and tends this way as well, so there's no conflict there.

What this looks like is that while I do invest in some market stuff, given a choice, I will invest in useful tools/equipment/skills to make me more anti-fragile going forward, and will do things with an eye towards future use in a failing economy/long term collapse situation.

So, when I put solar on my house (hopefully next year), I'm not going with the standard microinverters, which are ~useless in a grid down situation.  I'm going with string inverters that are capable of handling battery backup.  I probably won't install batteries initially, but I want the capability, and I'll get a transfer switch wired in as well.  This also means I need 240V output so I can run my well pump, and I'd like enough surge capacity to start and run my heat pump if possible.

It will be slightly more expensive than micro inverters, but radically more useful if I find myself needing to run grid-free for a long period of time (or, potentially, hook up with other neighbors to create a small micro-grid for the area).

It means I'm going to be focusing more on gardens and greenhouses than markets, when picking where to spend money.  I intend to do some fairly substantial raised bed gardens, and an aquaponics greenhouse - I expect there will be several years of learning curve involved, and I'm fine losing money through those years on it to gain the experience and become an expert in such things.

And chickens.  Because hopefully they're able to do something about cheatgrass and turn it into eggs and fertilizer.  If you've never had house-chicken eggs, you're missing out.

I'm planning on doing some work with heavy thermal mass rocket stoves (mostly to heat my office and the greenhouse) - so I can find out what works well and what doesn't.  Being able to very efficiently use biomass for low grade heat (and possibly cooking bread or other food) is important to me.

I'll probably find a way to dig in a root cellar for longer term food storage.  Which... will be a challenge, given how much basalt I have to work around.  It may be bermed.  I'll probably dig it by hand, because I'm stubborn like that, and could use the exercise.

It also means that I have some non-optimal-return investments/hedges.  Metals, bitcoin, etc.  I'm diversified to try and be able to come through a wide range of possible future disruptions with at least some useful wealth stored.  An awful lot of this forum is incredibly vulnerable to either hyperinflation or a severe market crash.  Most people view that as unlikely, I view it was likely enough within my intended lifespan (another ~60 years, God willing) that I should defend against it.  Not with everything, but with at least something.

The long term goal is to have the knowledge and built up infrastructure on my property to be able to live very, very cheaply if we have to.  I'd like to be able to have enough useful and highly local knowledge that I'm of substantial value to the community around me, both in terms of immediate food production, but also in being able to help people get gardens and the like up without as much of a learning curve.

If I'm wrong?  Oh well.  I eat well, have interesting hobbies, and between low cost of living and investments, have more money than I know what to do with.  We'll probably travel more, pot about the country via either 5th wheel or small airplane, and generally enjoy life while spending very little.

If I'm right?  It'll suck.  But I'll be better positioned than a lot of people to deal with it, and will have the knowledge to help my local community at least survive, if not thrive.  If that's looking likely, I can expand my operations out along some family owned land on the hill we live on, and I've got direct access to quite a few acres I can start working on.  If that's the case, I expect I'll have no shortage of local labor I can rely on as well.

It's not the common path on this forum.  But it's one I've seen a few other people talk about, and it's the direction I'm going.

[Metric Mouse]

absolutely!

i guess i was a bit too optimistic in thinking people would actually read my post and watch the video, let alone to the end, before responding :P

in the end his recommendations are (of course he goes into more detail):
1) invest in community
2) protect the purchasing power of your financial wealth. his specific here is to own at least some gold/silver, but i think diversify is just as appropriate
3) reduce fossil fuel use
4) eat local
5) boost emergency readiness
6) improve your health

as i said in my original post, hes preaching to the choir here. but i found the data he provides throughout to be fascinating and just thought i'd share

Facepunch accepted! The video does start out so 'doomsy' that I didn't finish. I will make the effort now.

Edit: I got excited when he began talking about oil. Then it turns out all of his arguments are based on having "come to the end of cheap oil".  After this I kinda began to pick apart more of his arguments, as oil is not the only source of energy, and hopefully in the future, not even the most predominate. So if we assume we can move past oil at some point, then we can begin to see that all of the other factors may not play out the way he is predicting; though his point that energy is the start of the entire system is sound.

Zeihan, he is not. I remember watching Peter speak, and then months later yelling at the tv going "He was right! He said Russia would do this!" 

[Syonyk]

Edit: I got excited when he began talking about oil. Then it turns out all of his arguments are based on having "come to the end of cheap oil".  After this I kinda began to pick apart more of his arguments, as oil is not the only source of energy, and hopefully in the future, not even the most predominate. So if we assume we can move past oil at some point, then we can begin to see that all of the other factors may not play out the way he is predicting; though his point that energy is the start of the entire system is sound.

Demand destruction is a thing, and certainly a thing that the peak oilers got wrong.

We'll see how the alternatives work out.  Right now, the US power generation is heavily dependent on natural gas, and the fracking depletion curves are nasty.  A hundred years of energy independence, it is not.

[Metric Mouse]

Edit: I got excited when he began talking about oil. Then it turns out all of his arguments are based on having "come to the end of cheap oil".  After this I kinda began to pick apart more of his arguments, as oil is not the only source of energy, and hopefully in the future, not even the most predominate. So if we assume we can move past oil at some point, then we can begin to see that all of the other factors may not play out the way he is predicting; though his point that energy is the start of the entire system is sound.

Demand destruction is a thing, and certainly a thing that the peak oilers got wrong.

We'll see how the alternatives work out.  Right now, the US power generation is heavily dependent on natural gas, and the fracking depletion curves are nasty.  A hundred years of energy independence, it is not.

Yes, the future will be interesting. Exciting to see how the world's energy portfolio evolves - there are quite a few different routes, all of them with their own issues and advantages.

[Syonyk]

Quite a few involve a permanent per capita reduction in energy use as well.

Many, nearly total reduction.

[paddedhat]

Edit: I got excited when he began talking about oil. Then it turns out all of his arguments are based on having "come to the end of cheap oil".  After this I kinda began to pick apart more of his arguments, as oil is not the only source of energy, and hopefully in the future, not even the most predominate. So if we assume we can move past oil at some point, then we can begin to see that all of the other factors may not play out the way he is predicting; though his point that energy is the start of the entire system is sound.

Demand destruction is a thing, and certainly a thing that the peak oilers got wrong.

We'll see how the alternatives work out.  Right now, the US power generation is heavily dependent on natural gas, and the fracking depletion curves are nasty.  A hundred years of energy independence, it is not.

My son is a field engineer in the fracking industry. He is stunned how little this fact is known, and how it really is a surprise to lease holders who watch a pretty sweet royalty stream plummet, only a few years after a well begins producing.  The industry tries to placate by claiming that they can look forward to a  small payment for 30, 40 years, but in reality, at what point is realistic to continue to bear the cost of operating a well with very little output.

[Syonyk]

My son is a field engineer in the fracking industry. He is stunned how little this fact is known, and how it really is a surprise to lease holders who watch a pretty sweet royalty stream plummet, only a few years after a well begins producing.  The industry tries to placate by claiming that they can look forward to a  small payment for 30, 40 years, but in reality, at what point is realistic to continue to bear the cost of operating a well with very little output.

A few years?  Get me in on that!

The curves from the first wells (the best wells) are looking at 50-70% annual depletion - that means, in a year, you've got 30% of original flow.  In two years, 9%.  And goes down from there.

It's obscene depletion rates - and anyone who says, "Well, that's the rate for all of them, and there are a lot of undrilled sites" - is full of shit.  The best sites are drilled first.  Resource extraction 101: Do the easy and cheap stuff early, since that's the most profitable.

We're pretty well into the fracking bust.  What that means for power rates and such?  Well, I'm looking to get solar on my roof next year to prepay power for an awful lot of years, and I intend to design my system such that I can go off grid if I need to.  It won't be pretty (off grid in the winter is a cold, dark, somewhat miserable existence in a house not designed for it, which mine isn't), but it's better than nothing.  I'll run heat tape on the plumbing. :/

[Metric Mouse]

Urg. If we get to that point, I'm not bothering to stay in my house. There is plenty of less marginal land in the USA; no need to stay in an arbitrary place that is only inhabitable due to low energy costs.

Sadly many people won't have the resources to move. It'll be bleak for many, for sure.