Author Topic: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...  (Read 6163 times)

Johnez

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The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« on: August 30, 2014, 10:48:03 PM »
The quoted section below is from a yahoo news article comment by user Sailor.  I'm a news fiend, but its sometimes the comments that hold the real story, and I think this one sums up what the "new normal" really means, how it affects our labor pool.  It's astounding how much our world has changed due to automation, there are fewer and fewer chairs for when the music stops.  I see mustachianism as a bit more FI than RE, in reality its more about being in a position of strength to deal with new shit storms or simply the "new normal."  It's fun, but in a way we're kind of "prepping," to borrow a phrase from my gold and silver bug friends, by storing up wealth and property instead of frivolously consuming it as if it's always going to be there.  It's not going to be, and already we're seeing changes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/america-disappearing-jobs-151610531.html

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Regarding the video; Modest wages no doubt help in placing factories in the US. I own one. But what is holding jobs and wages down is the same thing we see ending the jobs listed above. Automation. Today we use SolidWorks to design machines. In 1990 it was drafting tables and a little 2D AutoCAD. We do far, far, more work and better quality designs quicker... with fewer people.

Rather than fabricating sheet metal housings in house we send CAD files to the job shop down the street. They use our CAD to program their robotic cutting and forming machines. Far fewer people than once were needed to do this task. Next the parts go to a powder-coater who uses robots to coat the parts.

We do our marketing mostly on the wen now. This saves us Huge amounts of money over the days when we had sales people traveling all over the country all the time. Now we are even selling overseas (yes, even to China!).

All the accounting is done on computers now. No TPS reports and certainly no cover sheets. Also no checks. All that is handled electronically. I don't need someone to drive to the bank and the local bank doesn't need someone to process our deposit.

People have failed to appreciate this change since it was happening gradually. The Great Recession just pushed lazy old-skool companies to modernize or close. The economy is doing really well for businesses. It just no longer has need for as many laborers. This is a real problem, not just for the US, but for all humanity.

Science fiction told us the future and robots would bring us more leisure time. We didn't think that through very well. The future is here. We have more "leisure time" and even more is on the way, but today we call it unemployment. As technology and automation continue to advance many more jobs will become obsolete through no fault of the workers.

If you are interested (and you should be, it affects you) there is a great video on you tube called "humans need not apply"

Pooperman

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2014, 05:07:18 AM »
The industrial revolution was possible because advances in farming efficiency lessened the need for farm workers, freeing them to be factory workers instead. Now the factories are automated, freeing the workers to do _____. What that blank is, I can't say. The effects of the industrial revolution on people was bad... really bad. The final result was less starvation and more shit and the consumerist society we live in. It's possible we, as humans, will go through a similar set of events (revolutions, not enough jobs, massive poverty, new modes of travel, and eventually an easier life).

Maybe we go colonize new worlds with this excess. Maybe we do other things. I can't really say or hope to divine the future (if I could I'd retire in a month with several million from knowing stock movements ahead of time).

lakemom

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2014, 06:08:47 AM »
One great takeaway from all the discussions about robots lately is:  if you are younger (late teens, early 20s) or looking for a career change, study robotics from some angle either engineering them, programming them, and, an area that is already experiencing a shortage of qualified workers, maintaining them.  You'll have work even as your peers struggle to find something, anything, to put food on the table.

DSA

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2014, 06:21:21 AM »
That "Humans Need Not Apply" video is great -- linking it here for more visibility:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

(Also, I did the logo design for CGP Grey, the creator of the video)

My thought is that eventually our societies will need to transition to a universal basic income system to get through the coming waves of automation, but it's going to be a painful transition and I don't know how confident I am that we'll get it right.

Retired To Win

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2014, 06:46:00 AM »
My perspective is just the opposite from the OP and all the commenters before me.

Automation, technology, any and all moves to make production and distribution more cost effective result --  in the long run, because of competition -- in more goods and services being put at the financial reach of more and more people.  Which is a definite positive.

 And the mechanisms to bring about that change all require new labor to make them happen.  The demand for labor shifts, not disappears.  We simply have to keep up with that in order to remain marketable.

No natural law says life is guaranteed.  You have to earn it, and you have to keep on earning it.

And, as far as a guaranteed annual income is concerned... please keep the government's hands out of my pockets, thank you.

Johnez

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2014, 01:57:33 PM »
My perspective is just the opposite from the OP and all the commenters before me.

Automation, technology, any and all moves to make production and distribution more cost effective result --  in the long run, because of competition -- in more goods and services being put at the financial reach of more and more people.  Which is a definite positive.

 And the mechanisms to bring about that change all require new labor to make them happen.  The demand for labor shifts, not disappears.  We simply have to keep up with that in order to remain marketable.

No natural law says life is guaranteed.  You have to earn it, and you have to keep on earning it.

And, as far as a guaranteed annual income is concerned... please keep the government's hands out of my pockets, thank you.

You are right in that skills have to keep up to meet demands, however if you've not viewed the video "Humans Need Not Apply," I recommend checking it out.  You don't even need to have seen the video to know that the future is here with examples like driverless cars on the horizon and that development alone will likely affect the 3 million plus transportation jobs in a big way.

You are also right that to get it you must earn it, but what if there are only so many opportunities to earn it?  A company only needs so many decision makers at the helm, many of the physical jobs left can be worked by a trained robot, or replaced by automation.  Truck drivers, janitors, warehouse pickers (my own current job), etc...  Computers are even being trained to draw up reports with pertinent information found in seconds eliminating even white collar jobs.

With the new machines, we'll of course need people to direct them.  We'll also need mechanics, designers, engineers, etc.  Our vast labor pool is not going to be soaked up by the fewer and fewer jobs humans are required for however.  We've seen that in the decades long shift from high school grads being able to find jobs in factories to high school grads being lucky to find jobs in Starbucks or Walmart.  What happens when THOSE jobs are threatened by robotics? 

You might be fine, your kids might be fine, and people around you well prepared, but we live in a country that on the whole I think is not prepared to handle a new reality of less need for human labor.

rosarugosa

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2014, 11:47:11 AM »
Powerful video - thanks for sharing.

Nords

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2014, 03:47:01 PM »
The quoted section below is from a yahoo news article comment by user Sailor.  I'm a news fiend, but its sometimes the comments that hold the real story, and I think this one sums up what the "new normal" really means, how it affects our labor pool.  It's astounding how much our world has changed due to automation, there are fewer and fewer chairs for when the music stops.
Remember when "calculators" were people who could add numbers really fast on spreadsheets made out of little rectangles on paper?  And the "typing pool" took care of correspondence?  And execs used to dictate business letters to secretaries who wrote in "shorthand"?

Yeah, me neither.  Yet somehow our grandparents and our parents survived that era of automation.

Every generation thinks that technology and automation will be the end of labor for the next generation.  Based on that seemingly endless cycle of short-term labor memory, I predict that the next generation will find plenty of highly-paying jobs for skilled labor-- with even less drudgery than this generation.

I'm really looking forward to a robot caregiver for disabled people and Alzheimer's patients... and a robot plumber... and a robot toilet cleaner... and a robot lawn/garden weeder.

MikeBear

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2014, 04:41:38 PM »
The quoted section below is from a yahoo news article comment by user Sailor.  I'm a news fiend, but its sometimes the comments that hold the real story, and I think this one sums up what the "new normal" really means, how it affects our labor pool.  It's astounding how much our world has changed due to automation, there are fewer and fewer chairs for when the music stops.

I'm really looking forward to a robot caregiver for disabled people and Alzheimer's patients... and a robot plumber... and a robot toilet cleaner... and a robot lawn/garden weeder.

....and Morlocks and Eloi! lol

fantabulous

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2014, 05:07:16 PM »
I'm really looking forward to a robot caregiver for disabled people and Alzheimer's patients... and a robot plumber... and a robot toilet cleaner... and a robot lawn/garden weeder.

At my age, I'm really hoping for affordable robot exoskeletons or such when my body becomes infirm.

Nords

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Re: The new normal, and why we're all on the right track...
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2014, 12:39:46 AM »
I'm really looking forward to a robot caregiver for disabled people and Alzheimer's patients... and a robot plumber... and a robot toilet cleaner... and a robot lawn/garden weeder.
At my age, I'm really hoping for affordable robot exoskeletons or such when my body becomes infirm.
Well, the Navy is using a similar model in shipyards right now... and you know it has to be cheap before they'll spend it on shipyard workers.
http://defensetech.org/2014/08/22/navy-uses-exoskeletons-for-shipyard-maintenance/