Author Topic: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint  (Read 5788 times)

ChpBstrd

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The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« on: August 07, 2017, 09:31:44 PM »
I just interviewed for a job that would be a 50% raise and decided I didn't want it. The routine 50-70 hour weeks would be too crazy, and it would ruin my life, my family, and cut me off from my sources of meaning.

My rationale for pursuing the job was to potentially cut 2 years off my time to FIRE. The observation that I personally don't have any more time to devote to work made me realize I'm dealing with a reflection of the "triple constraint" familiar to project managers: scope, time, and resources. Each of the constraints affects the other, and one cannot be increased without increasing the others. They form a triangle, the area of which is outcome quality.

For FIRE, the triple constraint represents three options you have to build a stash faster.

1) Make More Money
For many people, this means building the skills, education, certifications, or experience needed to convert the same 40-45 hour work week into a larger salary. However, if you're "maxed out" so to speak, and already are earning as much as you can earn with your available time, ability, and energy, you'll have to pick another constraint to work with.

2) Spend Less Money
This is the standard advice because every one of us wastes gobs of cash on dumb shit. However, you reach a point of diminishing returns if your spouse does not support the next round of cost cutting / downsizing / simplification. I see many spousal arguments described on this board, and divorce is certainly a setback on the road to FIRE. At some point in these situations, one must accept that they will have to work longer to entertain their spouse's spending habits - or let the spouse work longer, but good luck with that.

3) Earn Higher Returns
For people sitting on hoards of cash, the advice to invest it in the stock market makes sense. Once you are fully invested, however, reaching for higher and higher returns can get dangerous. Next thing you know you're buying call options on Amazon based on Jim Cramer's advice. Returns actually decline in the long run for investors who take on too much risk, so this is not a healthy area of focus for those already fully invested in an index fund.

The center of the triangle made up of these factors is "time until retirement".

Many of us are attacking all three fronts, which will generally get a person FIRE in 7-10 years, but others face hard constraints such as spendy spouses, disabilities that limit working ability, risk tolerances, a requirement to live in a HCOL area, or children/spouses/family who need our time. Perhaps for any given person, there is a "good enough" level of effort on all three factors, which represents both the best they can do given their circumstances and the point of diminishing returns which is both their goal and stopping point. Rather than being a workaholic who fights with their spouse over unused coupons and gambles their savings on pork belly futures, any given person should seek a balance and a realistic time until retirement.

That said, it's easy to make the "doing the best I can" excuse while not developing a weekend side gig, cutting off the Netflix, or investing extra cash sitting in the bank account. Maybe 2% of the people on this board, and a tiny fraction of 1% of the public can claim to be optimal on all three factors. However, many more of us are optimal on one factor, and instead of spending more time in that area need to focus elsewhere.

Thoughts on this paradigm?

Lan Mandragoran

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2017, 09:51:28 PM »
Pretty accurate imo. We each have our own problems and advantages, but my goal is to optimize for happiness. Not optimize for fire. They can be the same for some peeps, but not everyone.

For us that means as high of a savings rate as possible while still getting to take my wife to dinner occasionally spontaneously, or go on a fall hiking trip that costs a few hundred in gas and random stuff.

Dicey

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2017, 02:05:53 AM »
Pretty accurate imo. We each have our own problems and advantages, but my goal is to optimize for happiness. Not optimize for fire. They can be the same for some peeps, but not everyone.

For us that means as high of a savings rate as possible while still getting to take my wife to dinner occasionally spontaneously, or go on a fall hiking trip that costs a few hundred in gas and random stuff.
Brilliant assessment. If I get hit by the proverbial bus, I'm not gonna regret that I put off living until after a specific date. Doing both may take a little longer, but living a balanced life is imperative for me.

dude

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2017, 06:59:09 AM »
Pretty accurate imo. We each have our own problems and advantages, but my goal is to optimize for happiness. Not optimize for fire. They can be the same for some peeps, but not everyone.

For us that means as high of a savings rate as possible while still getting to take my wife to dinner occasionally spontaneously, or go on a fall hiking trip that costs a few hundred in gas and random stuff.
Brilliant assessment. If I get hit by the proverbial bus, I'm not gonna regret that I put off living until after a specific date. Doing both may take a little longer, but living a balanced life is imperative for me.

Agree, which is why we travel pretty frequently every year now while we're working.  But for sure, we have the luxury of being able to take multiple vacations AND save a pretty significant chunk of money each year because we are (a) DINKs, (b) high income earners (@top 5%), and (c) I have a pension benefit coming when I retire (which lessens the burden of saving considerably). Not specifically saying that spending more money equals happiness, because that's not necessarily true, but a good portion of our happiness comes from international travel, which costs money.

Laura33

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2017, 07:06:40 AM »
ITA.  I was just talking to my 16-yr-old DD the other day, when she rejected all food in the house and decided to walk to Subway for dinner (her money, of course).  I whipped out that engineer's triangle and said, "time, money, and stuff.  Pick two."  Total crash and burn, alas ("MOM, I don't want another lecture!")

We are not optimized in any area, but we have a balance that works for us.

alexpkeaton

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2017, 07:26:38 AM »
I'm going all-in on pork belly futures.

Abe Froman

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2017, 01:35:22 PM »
Not me - I am going in on Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice.

alexpkeaton

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2017, 02:00:44 PM »
Not me - I am going in on Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice.

Sell, Mortimer, sell!

Rosy

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2017, 02:05:14 PM »
Earn more money - spend less - get higher returns on your money - the triangle bringing success for the established mustachians:) - agreed!

For the wanna be's like us, it is a frustrating reality check. It's tough to hit all three, but if you are still wrangling with the basics it is daunting. In fact, enough to want to throw in the towel.

Your own reality might differ, but the principles still hold.
We are working on the "get higher returns" part and the other two are at acceptable levels for us. It is too easy to slip, so we do our best to balance living the good life now and preparing for a good retirement for Mr. R. for later. We are at capacity for income. 
I found that automating as much as possible and fine tuning along the way works well for us.

We celebrate every little win and I enjoy becoming smarter about our investments and financial decisions. It takes time, but sometimes I'm a little awestruck to see how far we have come.
You are right, there are tradeoffs - time and money, stuff and goals, family life and sacrifice or compromise.
Money personalities are another consideration and have to delicately be negotiated between partners.
 
BTW - how does Cramer feel about bitcoin?:) 

Vegasgirl

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2017, 08:43:20 AM »
ITA.  I was just talking to my 16-yr-old DD the other day, when she rejected all food in the house and decided to walk to Subway for dinner (her money, of course).  I whipped out that engineer's triangle and said, "time, money, and stuff.  Pick two."  Total crash and burn, alas ("MOM, I don't want another lecture!")

We are not optimized in any area, but we have a balance that works for us.

I am in the same boat as Dude - been travelling a good amount over the past several years while everyone is still gainfully employed.  I've gotten to the point where I am ready to bow out.  I'm just tired and burned out.  DH will continue to work.  We've been fortunate to be able to travel a lot and do some pretty cool stuff over the years and still managed to save a good amount.  I'll be drawing a pension and have access to my 457/deferred comp with no age penalty so no real income drop when I RE.  Bigger leap will be when DH is done in I suspect 7 years or so.

Novik

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2017, 09:11:55 AM »
Really interesting paradigm - I think you can also consider that two halves of a couple could attack different areas at once to move the net household closer to optimal. Of course, it all works better if everyone focuses on their "worst" area, as you point out, which is for some the least fun to do.


talltexan

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2017, 09:33:24 AM »
I think it's interesting that the spending item references the divorce, but the earn more money doesn't.

Working so much that you're not able to provide appropriate time to family can also really tax marriages. Or moving frequently to grow income through new job opportunities. Many spouses would balk at leaving an area with family in it (or opportunities to build their own career) to allow the other spouse to 2X job income.

Investing also requires a joint approach. One spouse might be willing to take a lot more risk than the other. I wasn't married at the start of the 2008 financial crisis, but I imagine it would have been quite stressful for such a couple.

ChpBstrd

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2017, 07:13:01 PM »
Earn more money - spend less - get higher returns on your money - the triangle bringing success for the established mustachians:) - agreed!

For the wanna be's like us, it is a frustrating reality check. It's tough to hit all three, but if you are still wrangling with the basics it is daunting. In fact, enough to want to throw in the towel.
Well, by using the "iron triangle" project management paradigm, I didn't mean to imply a binary outcome like succeed or don't succeed or retire at 40 vs retire at 70. The concept emphasizes the relationship between 3 factors (lines) and time to retire (area of triangle).

Some of us will be really good at frugality and have a very short frugality line, which reduces the area of the triangle. Others will kick ass at making money, which shortens the income line.

However, they also might keep a six-figure cash "emergency fund" or maybe trade in and out of individual stocks based on "financial news", reducing investment returns. In that case, their time to retire might approximate the time to retire of someone with a completely different profile, such as a spendy person of moderate income who keeps a 100% allocation in tech stocks.

By using this model, we can troubleshoot our lives and the lives of others. Yes, the area of the triangle would be zero if spending could be zero, income was infinite, or investment returns yielded a million percent a day. But realistically we work with our own limitations to shorten the lines we can shorten.

For some, that's a six-year plan from zero to FIRE. Others might take 20 years. It's a gradient of opportunity, and the time to payoff is determined by 3 factors we can influence, but not always control.

The inspiring part is that doing our best tends to make our best easier to do. Taking shorter showers is easier after you've adjusted the AC thermostat. Walking or biking become easier and more pleasant after you've walked and biked yourself into shape. Your next 5% raise will be bigger than your last 5% raise. Etc.

Cubert

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Re: The Early Retirement Triple Constraint
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2017, 07:50:39 PM »
I can easily relate to this situation. I had two promotion offers this past year and turned them both down. Even though the added pay and bonus would help accelerate my early retirement goal, I similarly felt it would put a huge dent in precious time with family. I sometimes regret the decision when I see peers moving up the ladder, but with a little over two years to go until I'm DONE, I can't complain too much. 45 hours a week beats 55 any day, no matter the pay, when you have small kids who grow up way too fast.