* This also assumes zero technological advancements in enhanced production. "Peak oil" has been a concern for how long? Then fracking came along, and all of a sudden we're seeing oil back down around $60/barrel and the US is now a net exporter.
In 2017 dollars, oil's annual average was below $30/barrel every year until 1974, and didn't fall below 30 again until the Clinton Administration, then rose back above 30 for the last 18 years.
Still in 2017 dollars, the only time oil has been above 60/barrel annual average was from 79-85 and from 2005-2015.
The reason this happened is because hydrofracturing has actually been a known technology for about 40 years, but the price-point at which the extra effort is justified has been known just as long: it's profitable to frack around 52/barrel/2017. Other drilling technologies also exist, but their function isn't to make 60/b oil cost 30, it's to make 200/b oil cost 70. When the stable price of oil rises above whatever price those techs bring those fields down to, those fields will be activated. But using those techs on active fields is like using a grabber-claw to hold something on your lap.
The reason the US became an exporter is actually refreshingly mustachian: Since the 90's, per-capita oil consumption in the US has just
gone down. We live within our means better, and so we have some extra to sell.