Rant on Putin that I was going to put at https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/modern-day-slavery/100/
This is the better thread.
I don't get, and despise the way Putin is glorified ( good or bad).
Yes Putin (Russia) has nuclear weapons to saber rattle and has a seat on the UN Security council.
But:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_%28United_Nations%29
Russia is 9th after Bangladesh:
Do you glorify/fear/know who is, the head of state of Bangladesh?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29
Russia is 13th after Australia
Do you glorify/fear/know who is, the the head of state of Australia?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29_per_capita
Russia is 70th after Equatorial Guinea (wholly crap, I was not expecting that).
Do you glorify/fear/know who is, the the head of state of Equatorial Guinea?
That said: Putin is not someone I'd want to meet in a dark (or lit)alleyway, or across a negotiating table.
Putin is the obvious leader of Russia, able to swim in the dangerous currents of Russian politics (Po-210 anyone?)
When Putin passes from the scene (a "cold" like old Soviet leaders) the succession crisis should be interesting, as most high grade successors are likely "minimized".
One word answer: 'Energy'
"The Russian Federation supplies a significant volume of fossil fuels and is the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to the European Union. In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import.[1]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector
This + NATO / EU.
In many countries there is a large minority of people with Russian heritage, because those countries were under Russian influence for a long time. Russia maintains a territorial claim to these areas and has already invaded one place that they feel should be under the Russian influence. Ukraine was not part of the EU or NATO and nobody feels that area is important enough to risk real war. He was testing us and he got away with it.
But Russia has the same claim to the Baltic states. The Baltic states are EU and NATO members and historically have strong anti-Russian sentiments. If Russia would invade there, those countries would certainly ask for support against Russia. The Russian threat to their territory is why they joined NATO in the first place. This request would likely divide the EU and NATO and severely disrupt the stability of the EU and the single market/euro. The EU is trying to stay afloat, but 10 years after the first crisis happened it is still very fragile.
Whatever you think about Putin, he's a clever man and a strategic thinker. Is he interested in an all-out war with NATO? Of course not. He has very little to gain from that. But he's interested in power and money, and that's exactly what he's gaining now. He's getting involved in international conflicts, enough to divide and confuse his enemies. Whether or not he actually did try to influence the US elections, the Trump presidency has certainly been weakened by these claims, which in turn damages the relationship between the US and Europe. He's meddling in Syria both to to expand Russia's influence and crush the Chechens there, and also to show off his military power. Our economic dependence on Russia gives Putin power.
The scary part about guys like Putin and Erdogan, or any illiberal democracy, is that unlike true authoritarian regimes, they have a strong popular support and get a certain legitimacy because of it. They then use this to get rid of things like free press, free elections and opposition leaders, but there is no doubt that they maintain a strong fanbase, their domestic popularity is not just based on fear. We used to believe that slowly, all countries would progress to liberal democracies and then we would have world peace. It seems the other way round: democratic countries are slowly corrupted and become illiberal democracies.