Since even getting an estimate is basically on hold until early January, here are some things I'm weighing with my decision to go solar:
1). We are travelers in health care. Until we FIRE and/or scale back to working only part of the year, we will be gone from home A LOT. As in 90%+ of the year. The house will be occupied full time by at least 3 young adult children, likely for another 1-3 years, who knows for sure.
If we are never home, and the "kids" move out, should we have $20k(estimate) invested in solar to pay for electricity we aren't using?
2). The future is not 100% certain. For now, we are going on the assumption that this house "may" be our forever home, hence having solar, EV's, heat pump, induction stove i.e. 100% electric for ALL energy, will be an extremely good position to be in throughout retirement. However, what if, in 7-8 years, we decide we don't need a 2200 ft^2 4 BR house, and we downsize after being mostly gone for the previous 7-8 years while traveling. Well, that was a dumb $20k purchase, unless we get it back from the sale of the house. So maybe it will be good to have it in case we live here forever, and no big deal if not as we'll get it back when selling.
3). There's a good possibility that retirement will consist of a good portion of our time spent in Germany i.e. maybe 6 months there, 6 months here.
Ugg...there's a lot of potential uncertainty. So it is making the purchase of solar much more difficult.
I'm midway through the process of doing everything you're talking about, but taking it in a slightly different order. I did the heat pump over the summer, heat pump water heater a year ago, and just got a face-punch worthy Tesla a few weeks ago. My house has a tiny 2.3kW solar system that will get upsized when we replace the roof in a few years. Here's some solar thoughts to consider:
-Look at financing the solar system, but don't lease it. I'm generally an anti-debt person, but I think there is a case to be made for a loan Most home buyers don't add much value to a home for solar. At least in my neighborhood. But they don't seem to subtract value for taking over the debt on a solar system. It's irrational, but it seems to be how the real estate market is handling it. You could always pay off the loan later if you decide to stay in the house.
-See if your state has a viable Community Solar option, or other renewable energy plan. This is a larger solar array that you buy into and the power generation gets credited against your bill. It's still a monthly bill, but you can take your solar membership with you when you move. I think there's maybe 10-20 states that support Community Solar. It's not as psychologically satisfying as owning the physical panels, but it can be more practical.
On electrification projects, there's a massive difference in ROI for different projects. Maybe start with the high-ROI projects, and leave the other lower ROI projects for when something is getting ready to fail. While your math would be a little different based on usage and utility rates, here's how I saw it shake out for my house:
-A heat-pump water heater is probably the highest ROI project you can do if you qualify for the new IRA incentives. It saved a couple hundred dollars a year in my case, and I'd guess you could get it done for about $1,000, or even less with the new incentives. It should pay for itself in the time you live in the house.
-Cooking isn't a large enough energy user that switching will materially impact your bill no matter what you do. Getting off gas cooking has some good benefits for your health & indoor air quality. But it won't be a major financial change unless you do a ton of cooking. There was another thread on here somewhere about induction stoves being on sale for something like $1,100 at Lowe's, but I don't know if that's still available.
-Heat-pump HVAC is maybe saving us a couple hundred dollars a year. I originally thought it would be closer to $500, but it seems to be using a bit more electricity in the winter than I originally expected. Operating costs are still lower than gas, but just not by the margin I expected. And this is a REALLY expensive project. I'd say it's worth doing, but not until your HVAC is nearing replacement age. Just don't wait for a complete failure, as parts are back-ordered and qualified installers are booked months in advance.
