Author Topic: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.  (Read 4053 times)

EchoStache

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Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« on: July 09, 2023, 09:48:35 AM »
Just got a 10.53 kW solar system installed that is projected to produce ~ 12.8 MW of electricity per year.

We have a one year old, well insulated energy efficient 2150 ft^2 home that came with natural gas heat and central air.  AC unit is 3 ton 13 SEER.  Natural gas cost for one year was $609 which included cooking but I think VERY little of that was from cooking i.e. maybe $10?  Also, base monthly fee is about $16 with no usage.  We have a gas fireplace which my wife really likes.  To save the entire $609/year, would have to disconnect from gas, otherwise we pay about $185 base.  Just ordered induction stove, so gas cooking is eliminated. 

-Switching to heat pump and staying connected to gas will save $425/year.

-Upgrading a 13 SEER AC to an 18-20 SEER heat pump would provide some efficiency improvement on AC usage. Maybe $100/year?

-Yearly savings would be $525-$725 very rough estimate depending on whether we stay connected to gas.

Net metering, so whatever we don't use, we get full credit for.  Not sure if our 10.53 kW solar will cover 100% electric use with heat pump, but higher efficiency system would certainly help as it would lower current electric use for AC(30-40%?) and leave some room for heat.

However, have to see what the out of pocket cost will be compared to the upfront investment.  Total system cost would have to be well under $10k after rebates and incentives.

Just brainstorming.  Next step is to get some quotes and then see what we are eligible for in terms of rebates and incentives. 

Line 1 W2 was $104k for 2022.  AGI ~$102k.  Taxable ~$76k.  Not sure which of these are used for eligibility purposes.

Oh, southern PA in terms of weather.  Seldom gets below 20 but does very occasionally dip below for brief periods.

In theory, it sounds amazing to have 100% free heating, cooling, electricity, and fuel for cars(EV's) for the rest of our lives produced by our solar system, along with the benefits of this all being green.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2023, 09:56:11 AM by EchoStache »

snic

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2023, 07:10:19 PM »
In theory, it sounds amazing to have 100% free heating, cooling, electricity, and fuel for cars(EV's) for the rest of our lives produced by our solar system, along with the benefits of this all being green.

So amazing that it isn't actually true, unless you paid nothing for the solar system.

Keep in mind that energy production declines a percent or two every year, and that you will likely have some repair and maintenance costs. Two of my 16 solar panels failed in the 7 or so years I had the system. Replacement was covered under warranty but technically the labor costs were guaranteed for only 5 years, so they should have charged me to replace the second one. They were nice and didn't. We also had an annoying squirrel problem - apparently squirrels just love Enphase microinverters and will eat them for lunch. Also if you have one or two inverters (as opposed to microinverters), those have to be replaced every few years (that was true back when I bought my system about 10 years ago; not sure if it still is).

Our house (in the northeast) was about the same size as yours, and our 16 panel system I think was around half the size of yours. We did continue to have gas heating, hot water, stove and dryer, and the solar system covered our entire electricity usage (including a/c in summer) until we bought a Chevy Volt. At that point we had to start paying the utility for energy again. With a heat pump and electric car your usage may exceed what you produce, although it will depend on how much you drive, what temperature you set the thermostat to, etc.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2023, 07:11:58 PM by snic »

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2023, 01:06:47 AM »
I don't want to dump on your situation, but I have to say a builder who's going to cheap out on a SEER 13 unit is not, to my mind, likely to have actually put in the effort to produce an actually energy efficient house. I would check your assumptions about that before getting too far down the path of "well now I can do X".

Southern PA I would expect you're still heating dominated, so you may need a larger system than a 3 ton in order to reasonably heat your place. For those nights it can't keep up, you'll have electric strip heat, but that's only COP of 1, not COP of 3+.

If you do go for a heat pump, look outside the standard american brands. We replaced a heat pump a few years ago because the old one failed and we were just a bit too early. The DoE had to issue a cold climate challenge to kick the US brands in the rear. Meanwhile, there were already APAC/Euro brands that meet the DoE challenge requirements. Just not your standard Trane/Carrier/etc. Finding an installer is likely going to be an issue, but also likely worth the effort.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2023, 04:17:42 AM »
I get the idea of upgrading/converting as needed, but replacing perfectly good, 1 year old appliances and HVAC seems really wasteful to me.
If the motivation is entirely financial, then wouldn't you need to consider the cost of those items that were included in your purchase of the home and more or less write them off or depreciate them to zero?

GilesMM

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2023, 07:11:36 AM »
I get the idea of upgrading/converting as needed, but replacing perfectly good, 1 year old appliances and HVAC seems really wasteful to me.
If the motivation is entirely financial, then wouldn't you need to consider the cost of those items that were included in your purchase of the home and more or less write them off or depreciate them to zero?


I agree.  Upgrade when your current equipment fails.

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2023, 10:09:16 AM »
I get the idea of upgrading/converting as needed, but replacing perfectly good, 1 year old appliances and HVAC seems really wasteful to me.
If the motivation is entirely financial, then wouldn't you need to consider the cost of those items that were included in your purchase of the home and more or less write them off or depreciate them to zero?

I would want to make sure the old equipment were repurposed.

I don't think considering the original cost as a percentage of the house makes any sense.  What matters is how much I will spend for energy for the next 10-30 years.  If installing a new high efficiency heat pump were to cost me the same or less than what it would cost to not switch, then it may make sense financially, as well as potential environmental benefits.

For instance, I replaced a like new electric water heater with a heat pump water heater.  Plumber took the like new water heater as payment for labor, and I am spending $100's less per year for heating water in exchange for an upfront cost of about $500.  The builder could have spent $30,000 for the original water heater(as an extreme example), and this initial cost would be absolutely meaningless as to whether or not I switched to heat pump water heater.

grantmeaname

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2023, 01:50:47 AM »
I did the same math you are and came to the conclusion that the rate of return was really only there when a system needed replaced anyway (and so only the incremental cost had to be evaluated against the monthly savings). I have a high efficiency 2017 furnace and AC and it was hard to demonstrate meaningful savings even with a $600+/yr fixed cost of gas service.

There's a great thread here you may enjoy.

Ron Scott

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2023, 03:20:22 AM »
I agree with the input above. Even if you currently earn $0 from the $10k you’d spend on the new system and actually lived in the same house for the rest of your life too many stars have to align to justify all this on economics.

Might be better to invest in a sweater, a ceiling fan, and a bike.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2023, 04:02:12 AM »
I get the idea of upgrading/converting as needed, but replacing perfectly good, 1 year old appliances and HVAC seems really wasteful to me.
If the motivation is entirely financial, then wouldn't you need to consider the cost of those items that were included in your purchase of the home and more or less write them off or depreciate them to zero?

I would want to make sure the old equipment were repurposed.

I don't think considering the original cost as a percentage of the house makes any sense.  What matters is how much I will spend for energy for the next 10-30 years.  If installing a new high efficiency heat pump were to cost me the same or less than what it would cost to not switch, then it may make sense financially, as well as potential environmental benefits.

For instance, I replaced a like new electric water heater with a heat pump water heater.  Plumber took the like new water heater as payment for labor, and I am spending $100's less per year for heating water in exchange for an upfront cost of about $500.  The builder could have spent $30,000 for the original water heater(as an extreme example), and this initial cost would be absolutely meaningless as to whether or not I switched to heat pump water heater.

You're smart enough to realize that the builder passes costs onto the buyer.

Initial price of an asset always has to be calculated into the total cost of ownership, whether you pay that price directly for the asset, or indirectly through buying a larger item that includes the asset in question. You paid something for all of that gas stuff whether it was a direct line item or not.

It would be like buying an ICE, and then converting it to an EV just so you could have lower monthly running costs. The vehicle might have lower operational costs as an EV, but you paid for both the ICE and EV systems up front, and the labor involved in the conversion. That's going to take a long time to pay for itself in monthly savings.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2023, 04:44:50 AM by Paper Chaser »

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2023, 07:44:57 AM »
I'm planning to do the same sorts of upgrades, but plan to do so incrementally, with a similar end state as you (potentially keeping the gas hooked up to run the wife's fireplace).  PV to cover our entire household usage might not be realistic, though.  I live in an area with comparatively little sunshine, and our roof/lot is not oriented well to capture solar energy.  We'll see; the rooftop solar plan is further down the road, as the roof is nearing the end of its life and I don't plan to install new solar on an old roof.

First upgrade likely to be a heat pump.  Gas furnace works fine but is old.  Heat pump would be nice for the occasional summer A/C.  It's super mild where we live, but we still get the occasional demand for A/C, and I expect those occurrences to continue to increase.  Like the vast majority of houses where we live, there is no A/C. 

Cooking would be next.  Gas range is the oldest of our appliances after a recent dishwasher failure and replacement. 

Water heating down the road.  Water heater is still relatively new. 

Will get an EV, or at least a plug-in hybrid, for next car.  Don't drive much and only have one family car, but might get a second when the kids are getting to driving age.

Definitely hoping to get a lot more clarity on the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and rebates, as our income seems to be near the cutoff for a 50% rebate.

edit: Looks like the guidance on rebates is coming "late 2023."  I think we're over the cutoff for rebates if you have to use gross income.  If you get to use AGI, we're below it.   
« Last Edit: July 11, 2023, 07:56:35 AM by Arbitrage »

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2023, 07:00:51 AM »
I'm planning to do the same sorts of upgrades, but plan to do so incrementally, with a similar end state as you (potentially keeping the gas hooked up to run the wife's fireplace).  PV to cover our entire household usage might not be realistic, though.  I live in an area with comparatively little sunshine, and our roof/lot is not oriented well to capture solar energy.  We'll see; the rooftop solar plan is further down the road, as the roof is nearing the end of its life and I don't plan to install new solar on an old roof.

First upgrade likely to be a heat pump.  Gas furnace works fine but is old.  Heat pump would be nice for the occasional summer A/C.  It's super mild where we live, but we still get the occasional demand for A/C, and I expect those occurrences to continue to increase.  Like the vast majority of houses where we live, there is no A/C. 

Cooking would be next.  Gas range is the oldest of our appliances after a recent dishwasher failure and replacement. 

Water heating down the road.  Water heater is still relatively new. 

Will get an EV, or at least a plug-in hybrid, for next car.  Don't drive much and only have one family car, but might get a second when the kids are getting to driving age.

Definitely hoping to get a lot more clarity on the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and rebates, as our income seems to be near the cutoff for a 50% rebate.

edit: Looks like the guidance on rebates is coming "late 2023."  I think we're over the cutoff for rebates if you have to use gross income.  If you get to use AGI, we're below it.
We are looking to incrementally ditch fossil fuels, too.

We got quotes last summer on geothermal to replace our aging oil boiler + water heater, but opted to wait to see how tax credits play out. Our first swap was the tractor - DH bought a battery one to replace the 20 yo one that needed repairs. Next will probably be an induction stove to replace the propane gas stove. We have insulation upgrades scheduled for the house while waiting on info on the credits. An EV and some kind of HVAC change are down the road, before ultimately adding solar/wind once we better know our usage. Currently our electric usage is very low.

Biggest problem is that most of the credits are non-refundable, and thus we are not eligible to make good use of the credits. We want to keep AGI low for a few years (FAFSA for youngest), so increasing Roth conversions is out. Even later, increasing conversions to generate enough tax owed to use the credit doesn't help us pay for the changes - it doesn't *reduce* taxes as it would for someone with higher income/taxes, it just creates a fake tax balance to be wiped out. We still have the same total solar/EV/etc. bill to pay OOP.


GilesMM

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2023, 07:42:08 AM »
I'm planning to do the same sorts of upgrades, but plan to do so incrementally, with a similar end state as you (potentially keeping the gas hooked up to run the wife's fireplace).  PV to cover our entire household usage might not be realistic, though.  I live in an area with comparatively little sunshine, and our roof/lot is not oriented well to capture solar energy.  We'll see; the rooftop solar plan is further down the road, as the roof is nearing the end of its life and I don't plan to install new solar on an old roof.

First upgrade likely to be a heat pump.  Gas furnace works fine but is old.  Heat pump would be nice for the occasional summer A/C.  It's super mild where we live, but we still get the occasional demand for A/C, and I expect those occurrences to continue to increase.  Like the vast majority of houses where we live, there is no A/C. 

Cooking would be next.  Gas range is the oldest of our appliances after a recent dishwasher failure and replacement. 

Water heating down the road.  Water heater is still relatively new. 

Will get an EV, or at least a plug-in hybrid, for next car.  Don't drive much and only have one family car, but might get a second when the kids are getting to driving age.

Definitely hoping to get a lot more clarity on the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and rebates, as our income seems to be near the cutoff for a 50% rebate.

edit: Looks like the guidance on rebates is coming "late 2023."  I think we're over the cutoff for rebates if you have to use gross income.  If you get to use AGI, we're below it.
We are looking to incrementally ditch fossil fuels, too.

We got quotes last summer on geothermal to replace our aging oil boiler + water heater, but opted to wait to see how tax credits play out. Our first swap was the tractor - DH bought a battery one to replace the 20 yo one that needed repairs. Next will probably be an induction stove to replace the propane gas stove. We have insulation upgrades scheduled for the house while waiting on info on the credits. An EV and some kind of HVAC change are down the road, before ultimately adding solar/wind once we better know our usage. Currently our electric usage is very low.

Biggest problem is that most of the credits are non-refundable, and thus we are not eligible to make good use of the credits. We want to keep AGI low for a few years (FAFSA for youngest), so increasing Roth conversions is out. Even later, increasing conversions to generate enough tax owed to use the credit doesn't help us pay for the changes - it doesn't *reduce* taxes as it would for someone with higher income/taxes, it just creates a fake tax balance to be wiped out. We still have the same total solar/EV/etc. bill to pay OOP.


What was the geothermal quote like?  I was quoted over $100,000 which sounded nuts to me.

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2023, 07:54:44 AM »
What was the geothermal quote like?  I was quoted over $100,000 which sounded nuts to me.

WTF? Do you live on a solid granite outcropping in CA or something? That has to be "I don't want to do the job" numbers.

We did a 3-loop (3 ton, I think) geothermal at our old house -- vertical bored wells, which are more expensive -- and I think we only came out to $12-15k.

That was back in 2005, and in the flat midwest, but still.

grantmeaname

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2023, 08:25:11 AM »
I just got four quotes earlier this year in the $25-35k range for a 2100sq ft house in the midwest

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2023, 10:09:36 AM »
I get the idea of upgrading/converting as needed, but replacing perfectly good, 1 year old appliances and HVAC seems really wasteful to me.
If the motivation is entirely financial, then wouldn't you need to consider the cost of those items that were included in your purchase of the home and more or less write them off or depreciate them to zero?

I would want to make sure the old equipment were repurposed.

I don't think considering the original cost as a percentage of the house makes any sense.  What matters is how much I will spend for energy for the next 10-30 years.  If installing a new high efficiency heat pump were to cost me the same or less than what it would cost to not switch, then it may make sense financially, as well as potential environmental benefits.

For instance, I replaced a like new electric water heater with a heat pump water heater.  Plumber took the like new water heater as payment for labor, and I am spending $100's less per year for heating water in exchange for an upfront cost of about $500.  The builder could have spent $30,000 for the original water heater(as an extreme example), and this initial cost would be absolutely meaningless as to whether or not I switched to heat pump water heater.

You're smart enough to realize that the builder passes costs onto the buyer.

Initial price of an asset always has to be calculated into the total cost of ownership, whether you pay that price directly for the asset, or indirectly through buying a larger item that includes the asset in question. You paid something for all of that gas stuff whether it was a direct line item or not.

It would be like buying an ICE, and then converting it to an EV just so you could have lower monthly running costs. The vehicle might have lower operational costs as an EV, but you paid for both the ICE and EV systems up front, and the labor involved in the conversion. That's going to take a long time to pay for itself in monthly savings.

I know there was a cost to the gas furnace that was included in the price of the house, but that does not factor into the decision of whether to stay with gas or switch to heat pump.  That would be a sunk cost fallacy.  Only thing that matters is what is the best option *today* and moving forward.  It may be keeping the gas furnace.  I will get a good selection of quotes.  If heat pump comes out the same or less, I'll consider switching, and I won't be factoring in any kind of calculated cost of the original equipment. 

Honestly, I'm skeptical that the economics work out but I'd like to know for sure especially considering the IRA incentives which may heavily influence the math.

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2023, 10:12:29 AM »
I just got four quotes earlier this year in the $25-35k range for a 2100sq ft house in the midwest

Wow!  Geo-thermal or just air source?

grantmeaname

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2023, 12:56:26 PM »
Geothermal

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2023, 10:53:34 PM »
That's still pants-on-head stupid pricing. We had to redo a failed/leaking furnace in the new house in 2018 and my records claim the air source heat pump was $11k. We got a relatively high end trane unit (variable speed everything, including the compressor). While I'm not *super* happy with it, had it been in-ground that shouldn't have run more than $16-17k. That's assuming we'd be 3 loops here and $2k/loop which is twice what our 2005 price per loop was.

We didn't quote geo because there was exactly no way to put in loops in our new shallow back yard with where power and sewer come in to the house and where the air handler is.

grantmeaname

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2023, 04:35:45 AM »
Stupid based on what geothermal actually costs or based on what you feel it should cost as the owner of an air source heat pump?

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2023, 09:47:04 PM »
Both.

I realized I did have the numbers from the 3-loop vertical bore geo we did at the old house (2k sf, ranch, full basement) -- around 11k, but that's a 2008 number. Still, more-than-double, bordering on triple? Yikes.

Also I got the date wrong last post, it was 2008 not 2005. Eh.

I mean, in terms of equipment, it is all the same stuff in either air source or ground source -- plus the circulation pumps for the ground source. Package differently (all in one unit vs split indoor/outdoor) of course. Both still with electric strip backup heat, etc.

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2023, 06:06:38 AM »
Using Fannie Mae's Median Income Lookup Tool, we fall in the moderate income group of 80-150% and will qualify for a 50% reduction in the cost of a heat pump install, up to $8,000.  AFAIK, this means up to $8,000 in *savings* so it would cover half the cost up to $16,000.

So a $14,000 total cost would be $7k out of pocket.

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2023, 07:27:01 AM »
I'm planning to do the same sorts of upgrades, but plan to do so incrementally, with a similar end state as you (potentially keeping the gas hooked up to run the wife's fireplace).  PV to cover our entire household usage might not be realistic, though.  I live in an area with comparatively little sunshine, and our roof/lot is not oriented well to capture solar energy.  We'll see; the rooftop solar plan is further down the road, as the roof is nearing the end of its life and I don't plan to install new solar on an old roof.

First upgrade likely to be a heat pump.  Gas furnace works fine but is old.  Heat pump would be nice for the occasional summer A/C.  It's super mild where we live, but we still get the occasional demand for A/C, and I expect those occurrences to continue to increase.  Like the vast majority of houses where we live, there is no A/C. 

Cooking would be next.  Gas range is the oldest of our appliances after a recent dishwasher failure and replacement. 

Water heating down the road.  Water heater is still relatively new. 

Will get an EV, or at least a plug-in hybrid, for next car.  Don't drive much and only have one family car, but might get a second when the kids are getting to driving age.

Definitely hoping to get a lot more clarity on the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and rebates, as our income seems to be near the cutoff for a 50% rebate.

edit: Looks like the guidance on rebates is coming "late 2023."  I think we're over the cutoff for rebates if you have to use gross income.  If you get to use AGI, we're below it.

If you need a new roof soon, perhaps it wouldn't hurt to price a complete solar roof from Tesla.  My uneducated opinion is that it's very expensive, but perhaps if done in conjunction with the need for a new roof, maybe the math would work out?

For example, if a new roof would cost $20k(I have no idea???), and solar roof would cost $60k(also no idea), you'd get the 30% rebate on $60k, so new roof AND solar would be $42,000, or $22,000 more than just replacing the roof.

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #22 on: July 22, 2023, 07:30:33 AM »
I don't want to dump on your situation, but I have to say a builder who's going to cheap out on a SEER 13 unit is not, to my mind, likely to have actually put in the effort to produce an actually energy efficient house. I would check your assumptions about that before getting too far down the path of "well now I can do X".

Southern PA I would expect you're still heating dominated, so you may need a larger system than a 3 ton in order to reasonably heat your place. For those nights it can't keep up, you'll have electric strip heat, but that's only COP of 1, not COP of 3+.

If you do go for a heat pump, look outside the standard american brands. We replaced a heat pump a few years ago because the old one failed and we were just a bit too early. The DoE had to issue a cold climate challenge to kick the US brands in the rear. Meanwhile, there were already APAC/Euro brands that meet the DoE challenge requirements. Just not your standard Trane/Carrier/etc. Finding an installer is likely going to be an issue, but also likely worth the effort.

While not impressed with the 13 SEER AC unit, the house is 2x6 construction with correspondingly thicker insulation and very well insulated attic.  Full basement house and basement ceiling is insulated as well.  These 3 things make the house energy efficient, AFAIK. 

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #23 on: July 23, 2023, 06:59:23 AM »
While not impressed with the 13 SEER AC unit, the house is 2x6 construction with correspondingly thicker insulation and very well insulated attic.  Full basement house and basement ceiling is insulated as well.  These 3 things make the house energy efficient, AFAIK.

They have to insulate because it is likely code. Do they have to do air sealing, or meet a certain blower door ACH50 per code? If not, I wouldn't assume.

Signed,
1980's house owner where the house looks efficient and well built, but who just had an energy audit and is expecting a blower door score somewhere in the upper single digit range.

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #24 on: July 24, 2023, 11:25:09 AM »
While not impressed with the 13 SEER AC unit, the house is 2x6 construction with correspondingly thicker insulation and very well insulated attic.  Full basement house and basement ceiling is insulated as well.  These 3 things make the house energy efficient, AFAIK.

They have to insulate because it is likely code. Do they have to do air sealing, or meet a certain blower door ACH50 per code? If not, I wouldn't assume.

Signed,
1980's house owner where the house looks efficient and well built, but who just had an energy audit and is expecting a blower door score somewhere in the upper single digit range.

Thanks for this info.  Looks like it won't be a bad idea to have the test done.  Something the utility company offers, I assume?

EchoStache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #25 on: July 24, 2023, 11:46:32 AM »
Was in Home Depot the other day and saw a company soliciting for HVAC business(I suppose a Home Depot certified installer basically) so gave him my contact info.  They use Lenox equipment.

Installer came by the house today to give estimate:

16.5 SEER i.e. minimum efficiency to qualify for IRA rebates $10k
20 SEER $12k. Both would be variable speed.

He said either option would come with backup heat strips that would probably be necessary below 30 degrees.  Stated the 20 SEER would do better below 30 but probably still need some help from the heat strips.  Appreciated his honesty.

Sounds like this will be in the ballpark of being a consideration financially.  If the IRA covers half via tax credit, it would be $6k for the 20 SEER unit.

Our 10.53kW solar will not produce enough electricity to cover all needs with heat pump.  Next year, we plan to put a roof over our 12x24 patio in the back of the house which is also the optimal placement for solar.  I'm going to look into whether the entire roof project would qualify for 30% federal tax rebate if we add some solar panels.  Here's my thinking if so:

Let's assume the roof is $15k.  Adding ~3kW of panels for ~$9k(wild ass guess) would bring total project cost to $24k, or $16,800 after rebate.  Again, this assumes I can get 30% rebate on the entire project.  So adding a fair bit of solar capacity would be a relatively small cost increase over the roof alone, which we will do regardless. I would hope to cover all the electrical demand needed for heating with the heat pump.  Would obviously gain a lot of efficiency for AC from my current 13 SEER unit.

State rebate of $350.  Possible recoup of $1k-$1500 for sale of 1-2 year old gas furnace and AC unit.  If so, this would bring out of pocket cost to ~$4-$4500 for 20 SEER system.  I think this is worth pursuing further.

Additional considerations: Staying connected to gas would retain the minimum monthly gas fee or about $180/year.  Benefit: wife likes a fireplace.  Could be used as supplemental heat during cold snaps rather than heat strips?

If solar tax credit does not cover both patio roof and solar expansion, I think there is no way the math will work, overall.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2023, 11:59:58 AM by EchoStache »

Arbitrage

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #26 on: July 24, 2023, 01:04:27 PM »

If you need a new roof soon, perhaps it wouldn't hurt to price a complete solar roof from Tesla.  My uneducated opinion is that it's very expensive, but perhaps if done in conjunction with the need for a new roof, maybe the math would work out?

For example, if a new roof would cost $20k(I have no idea???), and solar roof would cost $60k(also no idea), you'd get the 30% rebate on $60k, so new roof AND solar would be $42,000, or $22,000 more than just replacing the roof.

Yeah, I've considered it.  Not sure how real an option it is or if it's mostly vaporware/unreliable to find and get it installed on a reasonable timeline as is par for the course for Elon-run businesses.  Will see what the status is once we're getting closer to that point, probably 2-3 years unless we get a leak.

Just Joe

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #27 on: August 08, 2023, 10:57:13 AM »
I'm a bit late to the conversation but just here to say - the house may have been well-built but the subsequent owners could have chosen low-quality or low-cost replacement equipment.

Both our current and previous houses were like this. Nice buildings but each had cheap owners who chose low cost / low efficiency replacement equipment. No idea why - high debt, low income or short term thinking where they only plan to be somewhere a few years before moving on.

I'm convinced our current house became an economic liability b/c the previous owners made low cost / low quality choices. It added up and became a  future major financial burden. We bought the house for a reasonable price and have slowly been making it right as things wear out. We are seeing major reductions in our cost of utilities already.

New roof, heat pump, HPWH, and switched from propane to NG. Next up: upstairs windows replacement, kitchen rebuild b/c of long term appliance leaks, all the porch railings are unsafe, and screened-in porch was poorly converted.

Previous owners dodged a bullet - moved a couple of miles away and built a new house with all new things and presumably no problems - all wrapped up into a big bank loan.

afox

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #28 on: August 08, 2023, 03:58:26 PM »
I'm a bit late to the conversation but just here to say - the house may have been well-built but the subsequent owners could have chosen low-quality or low-cost replacement equipment.

Both our current and previous houses were like this. Nice buildings but each had cheap owners who chose low cost / low efficiency replacement equipment. No idea why - high debt, low income or short term thinking where they only plan to be somewhere a few years before moving on.

I'm convinced our current house became an economic liability b/c the previous owners made low cost / low quality choices. It added up and became a  future major financial burden. We bought the house for a reasonable price and have slowly been making it right as things wear out. We are seeing major reductions in our cost of utilities already.

New roof, heat pump, HPWH, and switched from propane to NG. Next up: upstairs windows replacement, kitchen rebuild b/c of long term appliance leaks, all the porch railings are unsafe, and screened-in porch was poorly converted.

Previous owners dodged a bullet - moved a couple of miles away and built a new house with all new things and presumably no problems - all wrapped up into a big bank loan.

Too funny. THe sellers were smart. All of that goes un-noticed by 99% of home buyers. Home inspectors are trained to overlook these types of things and mostly try to prevent disrupting a sale by filling their reports with trivial things. Home upgrades never net their cost in increase value/sales price. Only reason to do things right/use quality equipment is for your own long term benefit. Average home ownerhip is like 7.5 years. Agents/the industry want high turnover.

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #29 on: August 09, 2023, 09:04:07 PM »
Thanks for this info.  Looks like it won't be a bad idea to have the test done.  Something the utility company offers, I assume?

Nope; private business. Look for energy audits. You want one who'll do a blower door test and maybe a "manual J" calculation. There are things in the report I'd quibble with (because they are incorrect, things like misidentifying a bathroom not having gfci when it does, via another bathroom's gfci down the hall) but it seems overall solid.

Our ACH50 wasn't awful; high 4s. That's below code for my area these days but in a 40 year old house it isn't bad. Most likely spray foaming the roof deck is going to bring that way down since we know from the blower door test that the house is far too connected to attic and the attic has no reliable air barrier between it and the vented roof assembly.

That said our manual J calc says our house shouldn't be able to heat and cool itself because it is turning out silly numbers. I'm not sure why that is, possibly because of the weird double-envelope design.

Our utility company did have an "energy audit" we did at our hold house but it was mostly useless -- "here use a few free CFLs and have a free faucet aerator. Oh and more insulation would help!" No calculations, no blower door, no recommendation on what sort of insulation, no mention of spray foaming the rim joists, etc.

Just Joe

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Re: Switching from gas heat to heat pump and solar.
« Reply #30 on: August 14, 2023, 09:21:48 AM »
I'm a bit late to the conversation but just here to say - the house may have been well-built but the subsequent owners could have chosen low-quality or low-cost replacement equipment.

Both our current and previous houses were like this. Nice buildings but each had cheap owners who chose low cost / low efficiency replacement equipment. No idea why - high debt, low income or short term thinking where they only plan to be somewhere a few years before moving on.

I'm convinced our current house became an economic liability b/c the previous owners made low cost / low quality choices. It added up and became a  future major financial burden. We bought the house for a reasonable price and have slowly been making it right as things wear out. We are seeing major reductions in our cost of utilities already.

New roof, heat pump, HPWH, and switched from propane to NG. Next up: upstairs windows replacement, kitchen rebuild b/c of long term appliance leaks, all the porch railings are unsafe, and screened-in porch was poorly converted.

Previous owners dodged a bullet - moved a couple of miles away and built a new house with all new things and presumably no problems - all wrapped up into a big bank loan.

Too funny. THe sellers were smart. All of that goes un-noticed by 99% of home buyers. Home inspectors are trained to overlook these types of things and mostly try to prevent disrupting a sale by filling their reports with trivial things. Home upgrades never net their cost in increase value/sales price. Only reason to do things right/use quality equipment is for your own long term benefit. Average home ownerhip is like 7.5 years. Agents/the industry want high turnover.

Yes, our inspector for our current house was useless. Nice 40 page report that warned of nothing. I'll admit I was surprised by a couple of things but we're doing what we've always done - improving the house as things wear out. All three of our most recent houses (~25 years worth) have been purchased right and have increased in value far beyond what we spent on improvements b/c we DIY what we can and we choose quality.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!