All the market timing noise is depressing. Cheer me up?

[dougules]

It's getting a little depressing seeing so many people jumping on the market-timing bandwagon.  It's impressive how many experts and psychics the market volatility has coined.  I know there are plenty of level heads here, but that's getting drowned out.  Seeing so much noise here is starting to get me down.  Anybody got anything to make me feel a little less pessimistic about the torrent of snake oil?

[bmjohnson35]

Are you FIRE'd now?

[dougules]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before). 

[dougules]

Are you FIRE'd now?

No.  I would think it might be a little tougher to not get caught up if I were. 

[Playing with Fire UK]

I'm doing nothing different with investments. I'm not close to needing to sell to rebalance, just directing dividends to stocks not bonds.

I am getting to work from home and it's a lovely sunny day here. And by checking in on older neighbours I'm having more pleasant conversations than I would in the office.

[zolotiyeruki]

The MMM are less than a drop in the bucket.  All the ones that are holding steady just aren't saying anything--they're just keeping on keepin' on.  For a lot of investors, it represents nothing more than rebalancing their portfolio, albeit in a very stressful time.

Don't sweat it!  People will make their own choices, and are responsible for those choices (and their consequences).  In the end, we'll all be fine.

[bmjohnson35]

Just retired last month. Market took a dive immediately following my last day on the job. I haven't touched my investments.  I am relatively confident that we are ok, but I certainly don't consider us exceptionally wealthy.  I will likely rebalance at some point when I think we are near the bottom.  When it comes emotional state, we are often our own worst enemies.  I read a study a long time ago where they found that humans are more apt to be influenced by fear than potential reward. This was consistent across various demographics.  It's wired into our DNA.  I believe they theorized that it was based on survival instincts. 

I find that I make a conscious effort to think rationally and not let negativity control me.  I am still inherently risk adverse.  This means that I simply research a lot and try to develop a reasonable and comprehensive plan to address as many foreseeable risks as possible. Once you have done your research, developed a plan and put it into action, you simply have to move forward with the belief it will be successful.  It sounds cheesy, but it's really that simple.

My wife and I got up early yesterday, had a light breakfast, worked out and later I played video games while she played cards with our grand daughter.  Later, we all went to the park and my grand daughter and I threw a Frisbee around for around an hour.  Afterwards, we all took a walk around the park along the waterfront.  We went home, had a salad for dinner and watched some TV finish off the day.  Regardless of what happened in the market during yesterday, we had a great day.  Don't let the noise control your state of mind.

BJ

[Hirondelle]

Haven't touched anything here. My EF was actually a little low so I didn't even invest after the last payday when stocks were already a little discounted (turned out to be a good thing with the current drop). Next payday I'll invest as usual again and I'm expecting a refund for a flight that will go either to the EF or investments as well.

I'm actually kinda surprised that I lost in the $10-15k range and not even upset at all. I'm well below my initial investments now (as in, net loss from the actual money that I put in from wages).

The 3 others that I regularly talk money with IRL are also staying put for now, so that's 4 non-market timers already!

[thd7t]

The only change I made was to skip updating my spreadsheets at the end of February.  I know approximately what the hit was, but I figure if I ignore it for a little while, I'll get used to the idea that my investments have (temporarily) lost value and not have any kind of panic response.  No change in the plan, though!

[dougules]

The only change I made was to skip updating my spreadsheets at the end of February.  I know approximately what the hit was, but I figure if I ignore it for a little while, I'll get used to the idea that my investments have (temporarily) lost value and not have any kind of panic response.  No change in the plan, though!

That's very self-aware.  Good idea. 

[wenchsenior]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before).

Not doing anything different. It's fine.

[terran]

I've done some tax loss harvesting, and moved some of that money to IRAs which I was going to wait on until the gains turned long term later this year, but otherwise just holding steady and continuing to invest large amounts of our income. I expect we'll come out of this in a better position than we went in.

[mrteacher]

The only change I made was to skip updating my spreadsheets at the end of February.  I know approximately what the hit was, but I figure if I ignore it for a little while, I'll get used to the idea that my investments have (temporarily) lost value and not have any kind of panic response.  No change in the plan, though!

I check balances frequently when the markets are thriving, and I check less frequently when they are performing poorly.

In a situation like this, I am avoiding checking at all costs.

Not checking has definitely helped me stay the course and avoid that "oh shit" moment.

[John Galt incarnate!]

 I read a study a long time ago where they found that humans are more apt to be influenced by fear than potential reward. This was consistent across various demographics.  It's wired into our DNA.  I believe they theorized that it was based on survival instincts. 

Investors'  unhappy/anxious feelings when the stock market plunges are 2.3-2.5X the intensity of their happy/buoyant feelings when the stock market surges.

[John Galt incarnate!]

I'm doing nothing different with investments. I'm not close to needing to sell to rebalance, just directing dividends to stocks not bonds.

I am getting to work from home and it's a lovely sunny day here. And by checking in on older neighbours I'm having more pleasant conversations than I would in the office.

Your reference to a "lovely sunny day" invites a weather metaphor vis-à-vis the stock market.

Most of the time the weather on Wall Street is favorable: The market goes up more often than down.

Sometimes the  weather on Wall Street is stormy and windy: It shakes and batters portfolios.

[dogboyslim]

I'm just keeping on.  I did check my balances, and as of last night I was down ~$500k from the peak in Feb.  That hurts.  But I'm not selling and continuing to invest on my regular schedule.  I suspect that by 2029 (my target), I'll have enough for my 3% withdrawal rate target.  I'm using 3% for this type of possibility early in my retirement.  I can then weather the loss and not stress.

[GreenToTheCore]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before).

Keeping on keepin' on

[Archipelago]

I already posted this yesterday as a separate topic but it's relevant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOGU94eL07E

[MilesTeg]

You need a security blanket because there are people who have a different opinion than you do?

[Buffaloski Boris]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before).

I'm probably not going to cheer you up much, but my strategy hasn't changed a bit.  My strategy was to wait and buy on sale.  I thought prices as measured by CAPE and PE ratios were much too high. My exposure to equities was pretty light, and I haven't sold any since the late unpleasantness started. 

We're having a once-a-decade sale! 

[dougules]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before).

I'm probably not going to cheer you up much, but my strategy hasn't changed a bit.  My strategy was to wait and buy on sale.  I thought prices as measured by CAPE and PE ratios were much too high. My exposure to equities was pretty light, and I haven't sold any since the late unpleasantness started. 

We're having a once-a-decade sale!

How long have you been waiting?  This is so far only a once in a year or two kind of sale.  If you managed to snag the exact bottom so far, you could have gotten early 2017 prices. 

[American GenX]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before).

I'm probably not going to cheer you up much, but my strategy hasn't changed a bit.  My strategy was to wait and buy on sale.  I thought prices as measured by CAPE and PE ratios were much too high. My exposure to equities was pretty light, and I haven't sold any since the late unpleasantness started. 

We're having a once-a-decade sale!

How long have you been waiting?  This is so far only a once in a year or two kind of sale.  If you managed to snag the exact bottom so far, you could have gotten early 2017 prices.

The S&P 500 had a higher close on Dec 24, 2018 than it had dropped to yesterday.  I can see this market dropping a ways before it finally finds a new bottom.  The news about the coronavirus, lockdowns, shutdowns, is getting worse every day.  And it's a global problem.  I see a long hard road to recover from this.  But we're still on the downfall at this point.

[Buffaloski Boris]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before).

I'm probably not going to cheer you up much, but my strategy hasn't changed a bit.  My strategy was to wait and buy on sale.  I thought prices as measured by CAPE and PE ratios were much too high. My exposure to equities was pretty light, and I haven't sold any since the late unpleasantness started. 

We're having a once-a-decade sale!

How long have you been waiting?  This is so far only a once in a year or two kind of sale.  If you managed to snag the exact bottom so far, you could have gotten early 2017 prices.

Too Long. I look like a genius for not being in the market more, but here’s the truth: I was stupid because I didn’t get a large part of the run up. I would’ve been much better off if I had simply put it all in around 2009, kept plowing money into the market and then sung the blues with everyone else. But I didn’t. And by the time I realized the error of my ways, the market was very pricey.

You play the hand you have, not the one you wish had picked up. I’m getting another opportunity to do it smarter.

[Uturn]

I remember as a kid in the 70s, the adults were talking about the crappy economy and it will never recover.  It did.

I was in high school on black monday in 87.  There is no way we can recover from this!  We did.

The dot com crash.  Oh boy, this one hurt.  Not only did my meager investments tank, but I even found myself homeless and living in a Ford Ranger.  I recovered.

There was a world wide meltdown in 07, but market charts say it really wasn't a big deal.  I wasn't invested because I had just recovered from 01-02, then married a woman who came with a ton of debt that we were dealing with.

One thing I learned along the way is folks that understand that life will throw curveballs at you and are prepared will be fine.  I don't know what the fallout of this pandemic will be, but I am not freaking out because I am prepared.  I have no debt, so if my job goes away, no one will come get my stuff.  I can cut luxuries and pay my rent and utilities from saving for quite some time.  I already know how to cook from scratch, so I'm not concerned if restaurants close. 

This post was not intended to be about me, but I assume many of us here are in the same situation.  We know how to live on less, have some resources set aside, and are prepared to weather the storm.  Even if this is THE   black swan event that forever changes the economy, I bet we MMMers don't sit around lamenting about it.  We will figure out the new game and adapt.   

[ChickenStash]

I haven't changed a thing. My asset allocation is a bit off from what I want but I'm just going to leave it be for awhile. Otherwise, all my auto-investments from my paycheck and 401k contributions are still doing what they always did. Keep on keeping on.

I have some friends that are about to have the cheese slide right off their cracker, though. The market volatility, the virus fears, kids home from school, public shutdowns, etc. are taking a toll on their psyche and I'm not sure how well they'll hold up. My more stoic approach to things has led to a few insults being sent my way but I do my best to shrug them off given the situation. 

[American GenX]

Maybe just a sound off of folks who haven't done anything different with their investments from last year (aside from maybe rebalancing to the same ratio as before).

I'm probably not going to cheer you up much, but my strategy hasn't changed a bit.  My strategy was to wait and buy on sale.  I thought prices as measured by CAPE and PE ratios were much too high. My exposure to equities was pretty light, and I haven't sold any since the late unpleasantness started. 

We're having a once-a-decade sale!

How long have you been waiting?  This is so far only a once in a year or two kind of sale.  If you managed to snag the exact bottom so far, you could have gotten early 2017 prices.

The S&P 500 had a higher close on Dec 24, 2018 than it had dropped to yesterday.  I can see this market dropping a ways before it finally finds a new bottom.  The news about the coronavirus, lockdowns, shutdowns, is getting worse every day.  And it's a global problem.  I see a long hard road to recover from this.  But we're still on the downfall at this point.

It dropped down below the Dec 24, 2018 close during intraday trading, but then it closed higher from there.  Stocks have further to fall from here before I start any rebalancing.  The worst is yet to come.  Hold on to your hats.

I haven't touched my investments yet and continue to contribute the max to my 457B stable value fund.  It keeps going up.