Stand by for disruption: when bicycling becomes the high-cost commute method...

[bobechs]

This report tries to predict the economic effect of shared self-driving e-vehicle fleets over the next ten to fifteen years.(free download)

https://www.rethinkx.com/
My own hunch is that like a lot of futurists who qualify better as advocates, however conscientious, than as neutral analysts, they may have compressed the time domain by a factor of two or more, but they explain & deny that their time scale is wrong, fwiw.

Some of the predictions are old-hat uncontroversial:the imminent demise of truck-driving as a trade, for example.

But the disappearance of car dealerships as a business thing by 2024, the collapse of the entire oil industry at the same time, and free transportation for the urban dweller who is willing to be marketed to enroute are logical-enoughprojections  but I haven't encountered before as specific effects with likely dates of emergence.

If this report is credible, now is definitely not the clever time to be buying a new petroleum-fueled vehicle, nor the time -mostly mustacian fashion- to be gloating over the putative resale value of your car, truck, motorcycle or e-bike on your balance sheet or in your case study.

[Optimiser]

free transportation for the urban dweller who is willing to be marketed to enroute

I hadn't considered this, but it would at all surprise me.

[6-Saturdays]

If this comes to pass I suspect that vehicle manufactures will stay in the game longer than anticipated by going to a “limited lease” only option for electric vehicles. They would then require all vehicles of a certain age to be returned to the dealership they will “junk them” and require uber, lyft, and any other companies to purchase new product. (Not very green, but it would add years to their survivability through a choke point).

Also I guess the pizza delivery guy will be no more you will have to walk out to the curb and put your smart phone to the dispenser box and out pops your order. Not sure if the self-driving pizza car will go all “Maximum Overdrive” if you don’t give it a tip????

[Chris22]

free transportation for the urban dweller who is willing to be marketed to enroute

I hadn't considered this, but it would at all surprise me.

One has to wonder at what point advertising has no incremental value, given that we are bombarded with more and more ads every day; does seeing a 6th ad for shoes really add value over the 5 previous ones?  There must be (or should be) some interesting psycho-analysis done on this to understand the point of diminishing/zero returns.

[shawndoggy]

sure am glad my uncle is keeping that red barchetta at the farm upstate.

[WSUCoug1994]

FWIW - The Automotive Manufacturers are planning to sell autonomic subscriptions with mileage limits.  You will pay a monthly fee to have on-demand access to a vehicle class with an option to upgrade/downgrade based on demand/availability.  Much like Uber you will request your Prius to show up at a certain time and you will jump in and go and you will have a mileage plan much like your data plan on your phone.

[exmmmer]

sure am glad my uncle is keeping that red barchetta at the farm upstate.

+1

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

[letired]

free transportation for the urban dweller who is willing to be marketed to enroute

I hadn't considered this, but it would at all surprise me.

One has to wonder at what point advertising has no incremental value, given that we are bombarded with more and more ads every day; does seeing a 6th ad for shoes really add value over the 5 previous ones?  There must be (or should be) some interesting psycho-analysis done on this to understand the point of diminishing/zero returns.

I think it actually works somewhat counter-intuitively. I think the more you see an ad for a given brand or product, the more 'normal' it is, and the closer it is to the top of your brain when you end up with the 'problem' the brand or product purports to solve. So there is probably some point of diminishing returns, but I would expect that it's closer to the 100 or 1000th time you encounter the ad, and probably has a time function as well. Seeing an ad for swiffers X times a month, for instance. Oh, now it seems totally normal to buy a specialized dry mop with branded disposable cleaning cloths.

[Dollar Slice]

free transportation for the urban dweller who is willing to be marketed to enroute

I hadn't considered this, but it would at all surprise me.

Urban dwellers are already heavily marketed to en route (see: every bus, subway car, and taxi). And those transport options are all struggling financially. I don't see a $20-$30 cab ride, or even a $2.50 subway ride, being paid for by a few more ads. Advertisers pay pennies, not dollars, for a single ad viewer.

(I couldn't get the link in the OP to work so forgive me if this is addressed in the article...)

[bunchbikes]

One has to wonder at what point advertising has no incremental value, given that we are bombarded with more and more ads every day; does seeing a 6th ad for shoes really add value over the 5 previous ones?  There must be (or should be) some interesting psycho-analysis done on this to understand the point of diminishing/zero returns.

I think advertising has more value than ever, as advertising platform providers know more about customers and their habits/interests than ever before.

Advertising will only increase, and continue to become more specifically tailored to you than it already is.

If the competition is such that there are 6 shoe ads bombarding you, then the offers being provided by each shoe company will be incrementally improved... better products that they know you specifically want and have bought before, lower prices, and they will improve until you, as a shoe lover, start to buy.

We've learned to "tune out" a lot of advertising, but that's because most advertising is irrelevant to us.


It wouldn't be a stretch to have an autnomous car that knew who you were, show you ads that you want to see, for the duration of the journey.

[bunchbikes]

but I would expect that it's closer to the 100 or 1000th time you encounter the ad, and probably has a time function as well.

From my friends who do facebook advertising for their businesses, there is definitely lifespan to any one ad.  A point in which the click-through rate and conversion rates drop off. This happens faster when targeting smaller groups, as they "get used" to the ad quicker.

Facebook ad guys are constantly re-working their ads with new images, new videos, new text, to keep it fresh.  There may be a lifespan to advertising a certain product, but I think it would be really really high.  i.e. Coca Cola still heavily advertises a 100 year old product.

[fdhs_runner]

The OP's link seems to be broken.

[Sibley]

free transportation for the urban dweller who is willing to be marketed to enroute

I hadn't considered this, but it would at all surprise me.

One has to wonder at what point advertising has no incremental value, given that we are bombarded with more and more ads every day; does seeing a 6th ad for shoes really add value over the 5 previous ones?  There must be (or should be) some interesting psycho-analysis done on this to understand the point of diminishing/zero returns.

I think it actually works somewhat counter-intuitively. I think the more you see an ad for a given brand or product, the more 'normal' it is, and the closer it is to the top of your brain when you end up with the 'problem' the brand or product purports to solve. So there is probably some point of diminishing returns, but I would expect that it's closer to the 100 or 1000th time you encounter the ad, and probably has a time function as well. Seeing an ad for swiffers X times a month, for instance. Oh, now it seems totally normal to buy a specialized dry mop with branded disposable cleaning cloths.

Except swiffer and like are defeated by my cats. They just can't handle the fur and dust. Vacuum is the only way, and why would I buy a disposable vacuum?

[bobechs]

The OP's link seems to be broken.

Fixed the link, hoping that actual exposure to information will improve the discussion.

[letired]

free transportation for the urban dweller who is willing to be marketed to enroute

I hadn't considered this, but it would at all surprise me.

One has to wonder at what point advertising has no incremental value, given that we are bombarded with more and more ads every day; does seeing a 6th ad for shoes really add value over the 5 previous ones?  There must be (or should be) some interesting psycho-analysis done on this to understand the point of diminishing/zero returns.

I think it actually works somewhat counter-intuitively. I think the more you see an ad for a given brand or product, the more 'normal' it is, and the closer it is to the top of your brain when you end up with the 'problem' the brand or product purports to solve. So there is probably some point of diminishing returns, but I would expect that it's closer to the 100 or 1000th time you encounter the ad, and probably has a time function as well. Seeing an ad for swiffers X times a month, for instance. Oh, now it seems totally normal to buy a specialized dry mop with branded disposable cleaning cloths.

Except swiffer and like are defeated by my cats. They just can't handle the fur and dust. Vacuum is the only way, and why would I buy a disposable vacuum?

I agree, for people with pets swiffers are not very effective. Obviously not every product is a hit with every consumer. But culturally in the US in many segments of the population, swiffers are seen as a perfectly normal thing to buy and use instead of a washable cloth mop.

I was trying to speak to how flooding a given culture with advertisements can shift the culture to make a given product or lifestyle seem normal. Without this framework, the idea of paying enough money as a brand to show a given consumer an advertisement multiple hundreds of times doesn't seem logical or effective. But if we think about it in the context of effecting cultural change, it makes more sense why a brand would want their ads to be everywhere, and makes the concept of free transportation funded via advertising somewhat more plausible. If the swiffer example doesn't make sense, maybe this article on diamond engagement rings might illustrate the point a bit better.

[Chris22]

I'm supposed to hate swiffers too?  They're the best thing for cleaning hardwood floors.

[bobechs]

I'm supposed to hate swiffers too?  They're the best thing for cleaning hardwood floors.

I would say if you happen to work in the oil industry, or the selling (i.e.,financing,)repair or other services related to cars, just kiss your swiffers goodbye.  Your hardwood floors, too.

[Chris22]

I'm supposed to hate swiffers too?  They're the best thing for cleaning hardwood floors.

I would say if you happen to work in the oil industry, or the selling (i.e.,financing,)repair or other services related to cars, just kiss your swiffers goodbye.  Your hardwood floors, too.

Eh?

FWIW I left the oil industry a while back.

[UKMustache]

I'm supposed to hate swiffers too?  They're the best thing for cleaning hardwood floors.

I would say if you happen to work in the oil industry, or the selling (i.e.,financing,)repair or other services related to cars, just kiss your swiffers goodbye.  Your hardwood floors, too.

You realise that plastic is made from oil right?   Theres an unimaginable number of products made from plastic these days.

Also while electric cars are nearly here, we're a long way off replacing jet fuel guzzling planes, heavy machinery and trucks (of the 18 wheeled haulage variety).

[bobechs]

I'm supposed to hate swiffers too?  They're the best thing for cleaning hardwood floors.

I would say if you happen to work in the oil industry, or the selling (i.e.,financing,)repair or other services related to cars, just kiss your swiffers goodbye.  Your hardwood floors, too.

You realise that plastic is made from oil right?   Theres an unimaginable number of products made from plastic these days.

Also while electric cars are nearly here, we're a long way off replacing jet fuel guzzling planes, heavy machinery and trucks (of the 18 wheeled haulage variety).

The authors of the report (Sec. 2.3) estimate that shared autonomous vehicles will reduce motor fuel demand for  by 90% by 2030 in the United States to less than 1 million bpd.  They also posit that the energy used to fuel autonomous vehicles is likely to be largely derived from wind, solar and other renewables.

To the extent that autonomous vehicles become a world phenomenon ( after all, cars, trucks, computers and even smartphones seem to have gained some degree of global popularity) there will be even larger volumes of diminished demand.  If they are right that oil prices will decline to about $25/bbl or less (pg. 42), I wouldn't count on petrochemicals to bail out the business.  Nor jet fuel.  Even the most timid travellers are not going to stick with being bullied at the airports an aboard just so they can have a human pilot at the controls.  In fact, I think that the prospect of sitting in a van for the time to cover intermediate distances of a few hundred miles by ground travel will undercut the airlines' appeal for regional travel.

At less than a dime a mile, all in,  if achieved will overwhelm petrochemical demand and the major sustenance for jet fuel usage will be from the military establishments of the US and China.   

OTR trucking is already doomed as a source of jobs and as a prop for oil consumption.
 

[Spork]

sure am glad my uncle is keeping that red barchetta at the farm upstate.

Shhhh!  No one knows about his country place!

[inline five]

So somehow they magically think that the cost to travel by autonomous car will be $0.03 per mile compared to $0.30 cost per mile of the average household when just the electricity cost to make that happen is ~$0.04.
 
So -$0.01 per mile in CAPEX, maintenance, insurance, profit, etc.

LOL

BLS figures are $9k per year in a two car household...spending ~$2k on gas...so $1k per car @ $2/gal X 30 MPG = 15,000 miles. $9,000/30,000 miles = $0.30 per mile cost.

Personally I think they are grossly over estimating the reduced cost/longevity of batteries. Lithium batteries have a shelf life of maybe six years at most even if they are hardly used. And that is being generous. Even large scale electric cars aren't going to be even remotely competitive with gas until the mid 2020's at BEST. The most optimistic projections show just 10% of all cars sold as EVs (Plug in hybrid and battery) by 2028, which mean 90% of all cars sold will still be gas.

Autonomous cars are going to be awesome. No really, they will be. I can't wait to own one. By they are still a long way away from being truly hands off door to door.

[dougules]

Self-driving cars still have a high cost in terms of lost exercise. 

[Optimiser]

Personally I think they are grossly over estimating the reduced cost/longevity of batteries. Lithium batteries have a shelf life of maybe six years at most even if they are hardly used. And that is being generous.

One thing the report talks about is much higher utilization rates for autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs). They gave an example of some Teslas that are currently being used 18,000/month as long distance taxis. One of these vehicles saw 6-8% battery degradation over 200k miles and two others saw 7-9% over their first 100,000 miles. These vehicles are being driven or charged 20 hours per day. If AEVs see similar usage they will see 500,000 miles long before the 6 year shelf life of the batteries is reached.

I agree that the report is very optimistic, but it seems plausible to me at least.

I'd also recommend reading the report if you haven't. I found it very interesting, and it addressed a lot of topics I hadn't considered before.