Spending more due to fatalistic thinking-anyone else?

[RosieTR]

Normally, I do try to balance spending now for happiness with saving for later for FIRE. However, currently I have been feeling pretty pessimistic about the eventual chances for FIRE, for a variety of reasons (health care, stability of the United States in the long term, darker thoughts like nuclear war). Because of that I feel a lot less like saving and a lot more like hey, YOLO. I find myself thinking "if the world ended, would I regret not doing this?" Often, I'm more of the check on spending than DH, but now I'm all like, yeah, sure, let's plan a trip! Who cares if it's not 50,000 points from air miles...may as well YOLO because who knows what the future holds!

It's not extreme spending, but definitely saved a lot less of a percentage of income in the past couple of months so it's feeling like a pattern. For example, I was prepping up the end-of-month spreadsheet for January recently and it looks to be about 0 of take-home, possibly negative. Usually this would kind of bother me because even if it's a large purchase that had been planned, just seeing a negative savings rate would trigger a little voice in my head "be careful! this is not the way to freedom from debt/work!" Now it's like, "eh, who cares! May not be able to retire anyway, if there's no chance of health insurance!"

Anyone else grappling with this? Have you figured out how to redirect your thinking, or are you OK with just letting it be this way for the time being, or what? Or, conversely, are some folks saving more due to uncertainty?

[scottish]

I just added 500K to my FIRE number to deal with all the uncertainty.   Having a goal like this makes me less likely to buy a new vehicle, a MacBook or whatever.   So I guess I'm having the opposite reaction.

[marty998]

So you're blaming trump for your excessive spending?

I think this is going a bit overboard.  Maybe next your performance at work will suffer?

DT won't be around forever. Just repeat the quote in your head "this too shall pass..."

[samsonator54321]

A couple thoughts:

- If they can take insurance  away that quick then they could add it back that quick. I don't know how far away from FIRE you are, but I think the best thing to do would be to plan insurance into your fire goals. Worst case scenario you have enough for insurance, best case you have a little extra if you don't end up needing it.

- Isn't part of the whole FIRE thing to realize that you don't need all that extra spending to be happy now? And often people find out that they enjoy a less extravagant life more?  If you believe in this then the potential future shouldn't affect your current lifestyle choices. A lot of us don't feel that we are making a sacrifice right now. We feel we are living our lives how we want, and it so happens that it will allow for early retirement.

- The doom and gloom attitude is exactly what makes people sell their stash low and buy high. You gotta be committed through the good and bad.  Vote for what you believe in and be an activist if you desire, but don't let a negative thought about the future change your behavior today.

-There are plenty of people who went through world wars and depressions, and after those periods were over lived long, happy, prosperous lives.  If you take the negative mindset then you are almost guranteeing a negative outcome instead of allowing for the possibility of a eventual great outcome.

[Miss Unleaded]

I just added 500K to my FIRE number to deal with all the uncertainty.   Having a goal like this makes me less likely to buy a new vehicle, a MacBook or whatever.   So I guess I'm having the opposite reaction.

I feel similarly.

It was actually the refugee crisis in Europe which was a big factor for me first getting interested in FIRE. The cost to the government, both local and national, has been astronomical and it is pretty clear that Sweden is not coping and there are talks of raising taxes, scrapping free education and other benefits.  The new arrivals are not getting into the job market fast enough to help offset some of the tax burden.  It became apparent to me that it's quite possible that by the time I retire there might no longer be any money left in my pension fund, so I needed to plan to take care of myself.

If climate change causes even greater numbers of refugees in the future then the situation will be even more dire.  Same with nuclear war or a number of other scenarios.

[NoStacheOhio]

Maybe try seeing a counselor or therapist?

[rachael talcott]

I gave notice a few months before the election, and at that time expected the ACA to be a huge help in retirement, but it was not absolutely necessary. It's possible that the new plan will have similar subsidies, but I'm not holding my breath. 

At this point, I'm committed to retirement, so I'm reducing my expectations of how much I'll be able to spend, which is a bummer, but at least I'll be free. 

It might help you to work through some of the ways you could FIRE, even without the ACA. 

You could save more, as scottish mentions.  If you need $700/mo for health care, that's $8400/yr.  $210K with a 4% withdrawal rate will give you that $700/mo. 

You could live overseas.  I've seen some people saying that they plan to live just over the border into Canada.  I have plans to live in France for at least a few years, but I can imagine staying longer or moving sooner if things get bad enough here.  The cost of living is actually quite low once you've factored in health care, and it has great food and culture.  There are communities of American expats in places like Mexico, which is closer to the US and has a very low CoL.

You could plan to semi-retire and keep working just enough to pay for health care.  Drive for Uber, or rent out a room on Airbnb. 

You could start setting up sources of passive income to supplement your savings.  If you could buy a rental property that will pay off its mortgage by the time you retire, it could easily cover your health insurance. 

So don't give up on your dreams of FIRE just yet!

[highflyingstache]

Another thing to consider:
You'll note "reversion to the norm". I'm positive I've got the phrasing wrong but the idea remains. When the pendulum swings in one direction, name the scenario, you see it almost always equally swing the other way. In the case of politics, there's almost always heavy resistance to new landmark decisions and laws, as that swing back.  What I'm suggesting is that, perhaps not all can be undone, but it's a bigger expansion on the idea that "this too shall pass".  It's not to say you can't suffer in the interim by any given action, it's that we typically revert to a neutral state. Simply put, watching things like what you see on the TV are the edges of those pendulum swings. You'll never see the norm, the boring, the everyday. That's not reportable, that's not exciting. Further, if you want to see just how the pendulum swings, see what exactly is coming, education can be a great answer. Read! The library is free! The internet, for the most part, is free! You can read on the characters, the actions, the ideas and the implementation. Not only is history going to repeat itself, but it also already has a bunch of social laws to govern how it will play out. The 3 branches of the US government are very well defined, for example. Most of the players within are too, if that's what's worrying you. Knowledge is power.

Alternatively, hope for the best plan for the worst. Of course you should always be realistic on such things like, having a few extra supplies at home in the event you get snowed in for 2 or 3 days. Preparing for a nuclear fallout is pretty difficult to do, considering the large number of variables. It's also along the lines of buying different forms of insurance; a bad play on odds.

[BFGirl]

Normally, I do try to balance spending now for happiness with saving for later for FIRE. However, currently I have been feeling pretty pessimistic about the eventual chances for FIRE, for a variety of reasons (health care, stability of the United States in the long term, darker thoughts like nuclear war). Because of that I feel a lot less like saving and a lot more like hey, YOLO. I find myself thinking "if the world ended, would I regret not doing this?" Often, I'm more of the check on spending than DH, but now I'm all like, yeah, sure, let's plan a trip! Who cares if it's not 50,000 points from air miles...may as well YOLO because who knows what the future holds!

It's not extreme spending, but definitely saved a lot less of a percentage of income in the past couple of months so it's feeling like a pattern. For example, I was prepping up the end-of-month spreadsheet for January recently and it looks to be about 0 of take-home, possibly negative. Usually this would kind of bother me because even if it's a large purchase that had been planned, just seeing a negative savings rate would trigger a little voice in my head "be careful! this is not the way to freedom from debt/work!" Now it's like, "eh, who cares! May not be able to retire anyway, if there's no chance of health insurance!"

Anyone else grappling with this? Have you figured out how to redirect your thinking, or are you OK with just letting it be this way for the time being, or what? Or, conversely, are some folks saving more due to uncertainty?

I have to admit I've been having similar thoughts.  Mainly because of the healthcare issue, I am not sure if it will be practical for me to retire as early as I would have liked.  I could buckle down and try to save more to try to cover the difference, but the things I spend money on are mostly things I enjoy doing with other people and I'm not willing to cut back on those expenditures at this point.  I also can't help feeling that at some point a portion of my savings will be taxed or appropriated to be redistributed to those who haven't saved if the social safety nets need bolstering.  So sometimes it's hard to look at the money in the bank and not want to splurge more.   I'm going to try to stay the course (although I'm not extremely frugal now)and hope the healthcare thing works itself out. 

Just wanted to let you know that you aren't the only one having these thoughts.

[Dave1442397]

Earlier today I was reading an article about a guy who lived on less than $200/mo in Thailand. I did some research and figured out that we have enough saved right now, if we were to just take our stash and put it in the bank, to live comfortably in Thailand for 56 years (based on renting a nice house, plus utilities, food, etc).

If we used the 4% rule, we could actually live on 2%, so our money would keep growing. If we waited for Social Security, we would be able to add to our stash every month - we'd only need 25% of our monthly SS payment to live comfortably.

When thinking FIRE, don't limit yourself to your current country.

[Slow&Steady]

So you're blaming trump for your excessive spending?

I think this is going a bit overboard.  Maybe next your performance at work will suffer?

Hmmm, I didn't see Trump's name in the OP at all, did I miss something?  Just to be an ass, shouldn't you capitalize the President's name?  I did see that the OP was concerned about not FIREing because

(health care, stability of the United States in the long term, darker thoughts like nuclear war)

As far as I have read there are absolutely plans in the works that will impact health care, why shouldn't OP be concerned that the changes would (or would not) drastically impact FIRE plans.  As for the stability of the US and nuclear war and OP (in my opinion) admits that is a darker though.  Preppers worry about both of these every day.

Maybe OP's post is politically based, maybe it is not.  Let's not turn it into one.

OP - As to your subject question, I try to create a balance and because of that will probably never be full MMM.  My DH has MS and therefore I will work as long as I have to, to make sure he always has very good medical insurance.  I am also aware that due to complications with MS we might be limited in travel options whenever I do finally retire so we plan to take a much slower path to retirement that includes plenty of luxuries now vs later.  There is a good chance that I will attempt to work as few hours as possible and still qualify for benefits within the next 5-7 years to help allow us to have more flexibility in our life.  It is also possible that the health care system will become something in the next 5-7 years that allows me to go full tilt for a few additional year and then FIRE.  You can not predict what will happen with any of this stuff but in my opinion if you are feeling like YOLO so F it, maybe you have been pushing a little too hard lately and you need to find a better balance.

[BFGirl]

Earlier today I was reading an article about a guy who lived on less than $200/mo in Thailand. I did some research and figured out that we have enough saved right now, if we were to just take our stash and put it in the bank, to live comfortably in Thailand for 56 years (based on renting a nice house, plus utilities, food, etc).

If we used the 4% rule, we could actually live on 2%, so our money would keep growing. If we waited for Social Security, we would be able to add to our stash every month - we'd only need 25% of our monthly SS payment to live comfortably.

When thinking FIRE, don't limit yourself to your current country.

Some of us need to FIRE in place due to family, friends or other commitments, so moving to a lower cost of living country isn't always an option.

[bogart]

I'm feeling the opposite -- moving to Canada or New Zealand won't be cheap and is likely to reduce (or eliminate) my income.  I'd say I've cut our readily discretionary spending by half since the election.  DH and I had also been considering buying a piece of rural land near us on which to build for retirement -- not because of cost-savings but for fun -- but I no longer have any interest in putting money in illiquid assets that cannot be taken out of the US (i.e., land/housing).  We haven't changed our behavior on "sunk costs" (still paying the mortgage), though I am finding inspiration to declutter and take on some small home-improvement tasks that will be necessary to complete before we sell or rent our primary residence.   

Might splurge to take the fam on a nice spring break visit to Canada, though.  They are less keen than I am on the idea of a trans-national relocation.

[DirtDiva]

I'm struggling a bit, but more because of my own health.  I was diagnosed with a rare cancer last summer.  I finished treatment and I'm cancer free, but I am aware that my 5-year survival is somewhere between 42% and 80% (I'm 52).  SO....YOLO?  Save for old age?  I don't know what to do.  Mostly, I'm doing some fun travel and continuing to save.

[azure975]

I can relate to this. Not necessarily just because of the political situation, but a combination of different things, including witnessing some people dying young through no fault of their own, feeling unsure whether not working will actually make me happier, etc. I definitely have a tendency towards negative thoughts so yes, therapy is probably in order for me. Of course, that is more $$.

[obstinate]

Another vote for doubling down on savings.

[FireHiker]

I'm struggling with fatalistic thinking right now too, but it's largely because of a close friend's (likely terminal) cancer diagnosis. I am trying to focus on cutting as much superfluous spending and ramping up savings ASAP, while balancing with increasing our travel. So, I'm spending less on MOST things, but spending MORE on travel/experiences.

I do have concerns about the insurance component right now, but since our FIRE date is at least 7 years out I am trying not to freak out unnecessarily.

[RosieTR]

Thanks for the thoughts, all! I appreciate the interesting perspective of folks like scottish. Probably a lot of this is due to my normal pessimism...which can be somewhat Stoic (ie plan for shit to hit the fan, then be pleasantly surprised when it doesn't) but can get a little dark, too.

Sending best wishes to you, DirtDiva. I can see how that sort of health concern can really mess with planning, because yeah, you don't want things to go in an unfortunate way and then be all like "well I should have taken that cruise" (or whatever floats your boat, ha ha).

[Abe]

Spending on superfluous items will not help you in the scenarios you've described. I've had a different response of ramping up savings because I realize my countrymen have no interest in helping anyone who looks like me or has my background. I've assumed all taxes are sunk costs.  They will be used to fund a government at best fueled by a hate-based ideology and at worst turned into a global nightmare. One must have plans and resources in place to escape and reset your life if necessary. The poor and weak will be crushed first, and only then will they realize the demons they have summoned.

My feelings aside- spending all your money because of bad thoughts and unfounded fears can be a sign of depression. It would be a good idea to talk to a friend about how you feel.

[RosieTR]

Earlier today I was reading an article about a guy who lived on less than $200/mo in Thailand. I did some research and figured out that we have enough saved right now, if we were to just take our stash and put it in the bank, to live comfortably in Thailand for 56 years (based on renting a nice house, plus utilities, food, etc).

If we used the 4% rule, we could actually live on 2%, so our money would keep growing. If we waited for Social Security, we would be able to add to our stash every month - we'd only need 25% of our monthly SS payment to live comfortably.

When thinking FIRE, don't limit yourself to your current country.

Some of us need to FIRE in place due to family, friends or other commitments, so moving to a lower cost of living country isn't always an option.

Thanks for the nice thoughts. And yes, I have thought about chucking it all and leaving, and discussed that with DH. I would not say it's totally off the table, but it's not my first choice. I mean, what is the point of FIRE, ultimately? If I tally my reasons, I would say: to enjoy life with your friends and family (mine are nearby), spend time in nature, be part of your community/give back/find a purpose, and go off and have adventures now and then. If the only thing out of those was the adventure part, I think I'd get sick of it after awhile. I do get to do all these things now, while working, just not as much as I'd like. Moving to another country would make me feel like a constant outsider, though there are worse things, I suppose. If my only goal was FIRE (rather than FIRE in place), we'd have already left.

Probably at heart I'm just struggling with the balance that we all face-spending for the now vs saving for the future. I'd like to die spending my last dollar, but I know I'm way too chicken to do that. No need to die with $4M like the one librarian guy in New Hampshire, though. Probably my pendulum has swung a bit to the "spend" side, as uncertainty generally makes it seem less hopeful to save. The heights of the stock market do not help, either.

Anyway, thanks for listening! It's definitely helpful to hear that some folks feel the same way, and also helpful to hear opposite perspectives.

[Syonyk]

Or, conversely, are some folks saving more due to uncertainty?

I've been on what, for this forum, is generally regarded as a weird path for retirement.  I'm on a few acres in the country now, and my focus is on investing, now, in property improvements that will reduce my long term cost of living - even if they're a bit less efficient than "Teh Marketz!"

Mostly, I don't share the faith that many people here have in index funds always going up over the long term.  If all goes well, I've got another 60-70 years of life to live, and while the past 60-70 years have been one hell of a ride up, I'm not optimistic that the trend will continue.

So, while I do have things invested in stocks/index funds/etc, I've been trying to focus on how I can reduce long term uncertainty - or, at least, give myself a framework to work within.

This means that I'm focusing on things like gardens, compost pits, solar (capable of running off grid if needed, which is more expensive, but more useful than micro-inverters that mostly won't run without grid power), greywater systems, aquaponics, etc.  My goal is to be able to feed myself and my family, and provide for our basic energy needs, from our property.

You'll note that this does not look like, "Store a bunch of crap because PREPPING!" - more, year to year production, with some carryover.  Though I will admit to storing more than many people here, part of that is that I live in the country and that's just prudent.  We've had a few weeks this winter in which we couldn't get out of the driveway.

If things go well, great.  I provide for most of my own needs, markets are up, and I have more money than I know what to do with.  If things go as I expect, I can still provide for my own energy and food needs, and hopefully have a surplus to export to the local community.  Also, a lot of useful skills and experience, built ahead of the curve, that I can share - so I'm a valuable person to keep around.

Will having to live within my property food and energy budget suck?  Yes.  Is it better than having no backup?  Yes.

I generally consider the US to be an empire on the backside of history, which means nothing particularly good is coming down the pipeline.  Politicians rarely admit that we're on the downswing, so rarely do anything useful about it, which means you're pretty much on your own.  Trump or Clinton, doesn't matter - the arc of history doesn't care who's in charge - and unless that person in charge understands that we're on the swing, it simply doesn't make a bit of difference.

Probably a lot of this is due to my normal pessimism...which can be somewhat Stoic (ie plan for shit to hit the fan, then be pleasantly surprised when it doesn't) but can get a little dark, too.

Normal pessimism?  Hell, I work as a paid pessimist! :D  It does bleed over into the rest of my life.  I assume the worst, try to prepare for it, and then am quite happy when that doesn't happen.

However, given my observations on the arc of history and the US, the pessimists are likely to be right a lot more, going forward. :/

[Dave1442397]

Earlier today I was reading an article about a guy who lived on less than $200/mo in Thailand. I did some research and figured out that we have enough saved right now, if we were to just take our stash and put it in the bank, to live comfortably in Thailand for 56 years (based on renting a nice house, plus utilities, food, etc).

If we used the 4% rule, we could actually live on 2%, so our money would keep growing. If we waited for Social Security, we would be able to add to our stash every month - we'd only need 25% of our monthly SS payment to live comfortably.

When thinking FIRE, don't limit yourself to your current country.

Some of us need to FIRE in place due to family, friends or other commitments, so moving to a lower cost of living country isn't always an option.

Thanks for the nice thoughts. And yes, I have thought about chucking it all and leaving, and discussed that with DH. I would not say it's totally off the table, but it's not my first choice. I mean, what is the point of FIRE, ultimately? If I tally my reasons, I would say: to enjoy life with your friends and family (mine are nearby), spend time in nature, be part of your community/give back/find a purpose, and go off and have adventures now and then. If the only thing out of those was the adventure part, I think I'd get sick of it after awhile. I do get to do all these things now, while working, just not as much as I'd like. Moving to another country would make me feel like a constant outsider, though there are worse things, I suppose. If my only goal was FIRE (rather than FIRE in place), we'd have already left.

Probably at heart I'm just struggling with the balance that we all face-spending for the now vs saving for the future. <b>I'd like to die spending my last dollar<b>, but I know I'm way too chicken to do that. No need to die with $4M like the one librarian guy in New Hampshire, though. Probably my pendulum has swung a bit to the "spend" side, as uncertainty generally makes it seem less hopeful to save. The heights of the stock market do not help, either.

Anyway, thanks for listening! It's definitely helpful to hear that some folks feel the same way, and also helpful to hear opposite perspectives.

We're not planning on going anywhere either, but I like knowing that the option is there, just in case. I've already country hopped once (came to the US at age 24) and my wife's family came to the US when she was 3.

As for dying with nothing left, that was always my FIL's mantra. He died last year at age 87, but he was still working up until a few weeks before he died. He loved what he did, and was only working part time, but still making $125/hr a couple of days a week.

My MIL was (and is) hopeless with finances, computers, and anything more complicated than a flip phone. She asked us to go to the bank with her to see how much she had. The lady at the bank pulled up his account and said "Ok, in the checking account, you have eighteen" (we're thinking thousand) "eighteen dollars and thirty-seven cents". Yikes!

It turned out he did leave enough for her to live comfortably along with her SS, but damn, when we heard $18.37 we almost fell over :)

[MonkeyJenga]

The way I see it, I need to save more than ever so I can 1) protect myself and 2) increase donations to orgs like the ACLU and NRDC. They need all the help they can get. Maybe that can could be a motivator for you?

A couple thoughts:

- If they can take insurance  away that quick then they could add it back that quick.

That's not exactly true. It's easier and requires fewer votes to dismantle it than it is to work out the details of a new law and pass it.

[Kiwi Fuzz]

My husband and I had a very hard time with this for a several weeks. He has panic disorder, among other things, and is 100% disabled so he felt like a target. Sometimes his anxiety gets so bad that he 'needs' take out (loses his appetite, which makes him more anxious, and the only thing he can get himself to eat is fast food). I do my best to be level headed for him but I had my own struggles.

What helped me was a myriad of things: therapy (realizing why this was impacting me the way it was - it's about me not anyone else), seeing the actions of people trying to do constructive things, learning about philosophy and history, understanding my options if the worst comes to pass (full discloser: I'm a New Zealand citizen so I do have an escape route that some others lack), the music of CAKE (I did buy 4 of their albums recently - extravagant!) and generally just time as I let my emotions settle and realize that life goes on.

In case you're interested, I'll leave some links to things that I found helpful.

On the topic Doom's Day thinking/preparation: http://earlyretirementextreme.com/myths-andthe-future.html
The Pendulum concept mentioned by highflyingstache: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q54VyCpXDH8 (The School of Life has many enjoyable philosophy videos that I would recommend).
This Tweet by MMM himself: https://twitter.com/mrmoneymustache/status/796315771538468864
This 'This American Life' episode - especially act 5: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/602/the-sun-comes-up

I have to make clear that I absolutely understand your concerns - Mustachianism is only possible with a stable economy and government system with rules and laws (rights to property, law enforcement, access to civil courts, & etcetera). But it has taken a long time to build these up and I know I'm not the only one who wants to keep them around. It might seem like they can be torn down in an instant but there's much more resistance to large scale change, I believe, in place than might be assumed. Vigilance, not paranoia, is where I'm trying to aim my mind. And even then I'm not going to read every news article (as has been mentioned - the media is geared toward sensationalism) for the sake of my sanity. I hope some of this helps!

[RosieTR]

My husband and I had a very hard time with this for a several weeks. He has panic disorder, among other things, and is 100% disabled so he felt like a target. Sometimes his anxiety gets so bad that he 'needs' take out (loses his appetite, which makes him more anxious, and the only thing he can get himself to eat is fast food). I do my best to be level headed for him but I had my own struggles.

What helped me was a myriad of things: therapy (realizing why this was impacting me the way it was - it's about me not anyone else), seeing the actions of people trying to do constructive things, learning about philosophy and history, understanding my options if the worst comes to pass (full discloser: I'm a New Zealand citizen so I do have an escape route that some others lack), the music of CAKE (I did buy 4 of their albums recently - extravagant!) and generally just time as I let my emotions settle and realize that life goes on.

In case you're interested, I'll leave some links to things that I found helpful.

On the topic Doom's Day thinking/preparation: http://earlyretirementextreme.com/myths-andthe-future.html
The Pendulum concept mentioned by highflyingstache: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q54VyCpXDH8 (The School of Life has many enjoyable philosophy videos that I would recommend).
This Tweet by MMM himself: https://twitter.com/mrmoneymustache/status/796315771538468864
This 'This American Life' episode - especially act 5: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/602/the-sun-comes-up

I have to make clear that I absolutely understand your concerns - Mustachianism is only possible with a stable economy and government system with rules and laws (rights to property, law enforcement, access to civil courts, & etcetera). But it has taken a long time to build these up and I know I'm not the only one who wants to keep them around. It might seem like they can be torn down in an instant but there's much more resistance to large scale change, I believe, in place than might be assumed. Vigilance, not paranoia, is where I'm trying to aim my mind. And even then I'm not going to read every news article (as has been mentioned - the media is geared toward sensationalism) for the sake of my sanity. I hope some of this helps!

Thanks, for the links KiwiFuzz! Yes, I like School Of Life and even went to their London location when I had a chance to visit that city!
Good luck, esp with your husband's stuff. I am glad you have a NZ backup plan. It would be on my short-list of places to go if I had to, and could.

[Metric Mouse]

Because of that I feel a lot less like saving and a lot more like hey, YOLO. I find myself thinking "if the world ended, would I regret not doing this?" Often, I'm more of the check on spending than DH, but now I'm all like, yeah, sure, let's plan a trip! Who cares if it's not 50,000 points from air miles...may as well YOLO because who knows what the future holds!

I've always tried to live my life this way. If I felt I would regret saving more than I would regret spending a little to go on a trip, I would do the trip. Every single day I would do the trip.

If the world doesn't end, would you still regret the trip? If spending a little more would bring more joy to your life, at a time that worries may be reducing some of the joy , I would suggest spending.  You may find that trips or dinner dates out or fancy new hats or whatever do not bring you joy in the way you thought; worse case scenario it's still a cheap lesson to learn and you can go back to saving.

Going deeper down the rabbit hole; if nuclear war does break out just before climate change hits and the volcano in Yellowstone finally goes off; it might be comforting to think during those dark times "We'll always have Paris."

[retired?]

Would be nice to keep politics out of the forums.  Everyone has their own opinion (just like everyone has an asshole) and no one is going to convince someone, on these forums, to change their political leaning.

e.g. - recent post asking "changing asset allocation due to Trump?"  Too easy to become a political bitch fest rather than discussion about changing allocation due to changing view in inflation, rates, stocks, etc.

[scottish]

spoilsport

[Syonyk]

At the same time, early retirement is dependent on politics to an extent.

[rachael talcott]

Would be nice to keep politics out of the forums.  Everyone has their own opinion (just like everyone has an asshole) and no one is going to convince someone, on these forums, to change their political leaning.

e.g. - recent post asking "changing asset allocation due to Trump?"  Too easy to become a political bitch fest rather than discussion about changing allocation due to changing view in inflation, rates, stocks, etc.

But surely how to deal with the current political situation is an important question, especially for those close to retirement?  I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.  I'm trying to figure out what to do for health insurance in 2018, at which point I'll be retired and the ACA will likely be gone.  For someone with a pre-existing condition, the repeal of the ACA could end up delaying retirement for some time.  It's a pretty big deal. 

[Metric Mouse]

Would be nice to keep politics out of the forums.  Everyone has their own opinion (just like everyone has an asshole) and no one is going to convince someone, on these forums, to change their political leaning.

e.g. - recent post asking "changing asset allocation due to Trump?"  Too easy to become a political bitch fest rather than discussion about changing allocation due to changing view in inflation, rates, stocks, etc.

But surely how to deal with the current political situation is an important question, especially for those close to retirement?  I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.  I'm trying to figure out what to do for health insurance in 2018, at which point I'll be retired and the ACA will likely be gone.  For someone with a pre-existing condition, the repeal of the ACA could end up delaying retirement for some time.  It's a pretty big deal.

I think it's best to not worry about this until the new plan is revealed. Unfortunately this is one of those times where one has to be flexible - since no one knows how this is going to go down, and events are likely to change rapidly over the next few years anyway, trying to plan for this is a fruitless exercise.  If the ACA going away could affect one's retirement, then they need to work until that is no longer the case, or find another acceptable solution to their health insurance needs.

[MonkeyJenga]

Would be nice to keep politics out of the forums.  Everyone has their own opinion (just like everyone has an asshole) and no one is going to convince someone, on these forums, to change their political leaning.

I've changed people's minds. :)

[Kiwi Fuzz]

Thanks, for the links KiwiFuzz! Yes, I like School Of Life and even went to their London location when I had a chance to visit that city!
Good luck, esp with your husband's stuff. I am glad you have a NZ backup plan. It would be on my short-list of places to go if I had to, and could.

That's awesome that you went to one of their events.

Moving back would be very hard, especially for my husband (I don't even know if they'd let him in because he's disabled), but we would find a way if we had to. I doubt it will come to that. He made a donation to the ACLU last night. They received $24 million in online donations over the weekend (6x their annual average of online donations). People are working to keep in place the liberties that we all enjoy. :)

[goalphish2002]

I may be going against the grain here, but some spending is reasonable.  You should enjoy life, and do things you enjoy now.  This does not mean go haywire on spending.  However, I don't think you should just save every penny for the sake of the future- especially if you don't hate your work.  Taking a trip from time to time is okay.   

[Slow&Steady]

That's awesome that you went to one of their events.

Moving back would be very hard, especially for my husband (I don't even know if they'd let him in because he's disabled), but we would find a way if we had to. I doubt it will come to that. He made a donation to the ACLU last night. They received $24 million in online donations over the weekend (6x their annual average of online donations). People are working to keep in place the liberties that we all enjoy. :)

I have always wanted to live in NZ and found out that my profession is one that is in high demand (therefore a Visa is more feasible) but with my husband's MS I have read that chances are unlikely that he would get approved.  I have settled for applying for a tourist visa (for a few months at a time) once we hit FIRE but I was and still am pretty bummed about this when I think about it.  I never really thought about them not allowing a visa for medical reasons when the person is married to a NZ native, I find this very interesting.

[runewell]

You could save more, as scottish mentions.  If you need $700/mo for health care, that's $8400/yr.  $210K with a 4% withdrawal rate will give you that $700/mo. 

But if healthcare costs are trending higher than general inflation, you should expect to need considerably more than $210K.

[Livingthedream55]

The opposite for me.

I am hunkering down to being super careful/frugal in case I need to FIRE 2 years ahead of schedule in the event I decide to quit my job and take up full time protesting/fighting for the future.  I could do so now but it would be more of a no frills FIRE.

I worry that "protest fatigue" will set in among the crowds we are currently seeing protesting and I worry this is all a carefully planned strategy of Bannon's to let us all exhaust ourselves early so the real dismantling of the U.S. can get underway.

[Kiwi Fuzz]

That's awesome that you went to one of their events.

Moving back would be very hard, especially for my husband (I don't even know if they'd let him in because he's disabled), but we would find a way if we had to. I doubt it will come to that. He made a donation to the ACLU last night. They received $24 million in online donations over the weekend (6x their annual average of online donations). People are working to keep in place the liberties that we all enjoy. :)

I have always wanted to live in NZ and found out that my profession is one that is in high demand (therefore a Visa is more feasible) but with my husband's MS I have read that chances are unlikely that he would get approved.  I have settled for applying for a tourist visa (for a few months at a time) once we hit FIRE but I was and still am pretty bummed about this when I think about it.  I never really thought about them not allowing a visa for medical reasons when the person is married to a NZ native, I find this very interesting.

I'm not entirely certain. It looks like he would need a 'limited medical certificate' and a chest x-ray. The pamphlet mentions a review of all medical notes and history. I suspect unless I could prove that he would not be a burden to the public healthcare system that he would be denied. I don't know if I could prove that simply by showing I had enough money saved up (not that I presently do) or if he would have to somehow prove that he could function in his role as my husband (per the quote below)? If we had to move I would definitely consult an immigration lawyer.

Applicants for visas and permits for New Zealand must have an acceptable standard of health. We consider you to have an acceptable standard of health if you are:

• unlikely to be a danger to public health
• unlikely to impose significant costs or demands on New Zealand’s health services or special education services
• able to perform the functions for which you have been granted entry.

If you intend to give birth in New Zealand you are not considered to have an acceptable standard of health.

It's a common misnomer that marrying a citizen of a country entitles you to citizenship. That has not been my experience with the USA and it's not with NZ either. It gives you the right to apply for residence (and eventually citizenship) but they can always deny you and it's certainly not automatic as some people have mentioned to me that they assumed.

[Reynold]

But surely how to deal with the current political situation is an important question, especially for those close to retirement?  I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.  I'm trying to figure out what to do for health insurance in 2018, at which point I'll be retired and the ACA will likely be gone.  For someone with a pre-existing condition, the repeal of the ACA could end up delaying retirement for some time.  It's a pretty big deal.

Even if this election hadn't turned out the way it had, I wouldn't have expected the ACA to continue in the same format for another 5-10 years, it was having increasing problems with funding, geographic coverage and insurance premium increases.  I had argued several times on this board that anyone who wasn't planning for an additional $30k/year in expenditures for insurance + health care long term was overly optimistic, that is what we priced ACA coverage + copays for ourselves out at, and I didn't expect it to get better.  In particular I couldn't, and still don't, imagine that heavy subsidies based SOLELY on income and not assets would last, given that programs like Medicaid look at both.  Any addition of assets into that equation would strip a lot of MMMers of subsidies. 

[Kaspian]

What?!  "Things in the world aren't going my way so I might as well chuck in the towel"?  Never!  Those are faulty thought patterns where I my head gets a shake, a dunk in cold water, a beer, and a dance around the living room to an old Ramones album.  You guys can sit around being vigilant, concerned, getting ulcers, and making yourself crazy by thinking about your own crazy (AKA navel-gazing), going on a high information CNN/Fox/MSNBC diet of lunacy (AKA lazy, binge-watching of inflammatory insanity which just agrees with your own preconceptions and tries to keep you watching by spoon-feeding puréed organic outrage) but none of that really got a real, valuable goal done in this life.  "Worry solved all my problems." <-- Said no high achieving person EVER!

[LouLou]

What?!  "Things in the world aren't going my way so I might as well chuck in the towel"?  Never!  Those are faulty thought patterns where I my head gets a shake, a dunk in cold water, a beer, and a dance around the living room to an old Ramones album.  You guys can sit around being vigilant, concerned, getting ulcers, and making yourself crazy by thinking about your own crazy (AKA navel-gazing), going on a high information CNN/Fox/MSNBC diet of lunacy (AKA lazy, binge-watching of inflammatory insanity which just agrees with your own preconceptions and tries to keep you watching by spoon-feeding puréed organic outrage) but none of that really got a real, valuable goal done in this life.  "Worry solved all my problems." <-- Said no high achieving person EVER!

I disagree with this outlook. There are many, many people who had the ability to legally enter the USA on Thursday that do not have that ability right now.  People who have plane tickets in hand for today who cannot board that plane.  Can they absorb the loss of the cost of the plane ticket? Can they afford a place to stay where they are?  Are there even places to stay available? Will they lose their jobs because they are suddenly unable to go back to work, for months? Let's say your 12 year old child was staying with a friend while you visited family in Iran for two weeks, but now you cannot get back to the USA.  Who will watch your child?  Can you afford to send money to help? Depending on which demographic you are in, these are not "faulty thought patterns."  They are very real questions that people may have to answer, with very little notice.  People are unexpectedly figuring out the answers to these questions right now.

If anything, the last few days have taught me to go on a very high information diet.  The media picked up some possible terms on the immigration executive order before it was signed.  I'd like to think that if I read about a potential executive order that would affect me or my loved ones, we could get somewhere safe immediately.  I don't think I would need to move out of the US permanently or anything, but I would like the financial freedom to live somewhere else for a few months if necessary. 

My plan: (1) be aware of rapidly changing policies; (2) get my passport renewed; (3) make sure my emergency fund is liquid and accessible; and (4) treasure my time with friends and family.

[Gondolin]

Earlier today I was reading an article about a guy who lived on less than $200/mo in Thailand. I did some research and figured out that we have enough saved right now, if we were to just take our stash and put it in the bank, to live comfortably in Thailand for 56 years (based on renting a nice house, plus utilities, food, etc).

Off-topic from where the thread went but, did you consider that Thailand is under the control of a military junta and has had multiple coups (most recently in 2014) since becoming a 'democracy' in 1932?

Third world countries with a very low cost of living are great to visit or slow travel through for a few months but, living there for 50-60 years would be a very different proposition.

[rachael talcott]

But surely how to deal with the current political situation is an important question, especially for those close to retirement?  I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.  I'm trying to figure out what to do for health insurance in 2018, at which point I'll be retired and the ACA will likely be gone.  For someone with a pre-existing condition, the repeal of the ACA could end up delaying retirement for some time.  It's a pretty big deal.

Even if this election hadn't turned out the way it had, I wouldn't have expected the ACA to continue in the same format for another 5-10 years, it was having increasing problems with funding, geographic coverage and insurance premium increases.  I had argued several times on this board that anyone who wasn't planning for an additional $30k/year in expenditures for insurance + health care long term was overly optimistic, that is what we priced ACA coverage + copays for ourselves out at, and I didn't expect it to get better.  In particular I couldn't, and still don't, imagine that heavy subsidies based SOLELY on income and not assets would last, given that programs like Medicaid look at both.  Any addition of assets into that equation would strip a lot of MMMers of subsidies.

I agree with the substance of this, but (possibly) not the details.  That is, the ACA doesn't seem to be sustainable in the long term.  But when I pulled the trigger on FIRE in Aug, I was expecting the ACA to still be in effect for 2018, which is a year in which my income will be low because I'm still building my rental portfolio one house at a time.  Now it appears that I was overly optimistic.   I can still weather the inconvenience. But $30K? Do you mean in today's dollars?  It seems like the bubble has to burst sometime, no?

[RosieTR]

I've always tried to live my life this way. If I felt I would regret saving more than I would regret spending a little to go on a trip, I would do the trip. Every single day I would do the trip.

If the world doesn't end, would you still regret the trip? If spending a little more would bring more joy to your life, at a time that worries may be reducing some of the joy , I would suggest spending.  You may find that trips or dinner dates out or fancy new hats or whatever do not bring you joy in the way you thought; worse case scenario it's still a cheap lesson to learn and you can go back to saving.

Going deeper down the rabbit hole; if nuclear war does break out just before climate change hits and the volcano in Yellowstone finally goes off; it might be comforting to think during those dark times "We'll always have Paris."

Ha ha ha. Yes, good points! I doubt I'll regret the extra spending...this wasn't quite like ehhh, fuck it, let's spend to spend. It was that normally I might have more uncertainty, or suggest we spread out the spending more (can we wait to buy X until next month?) etc. And unexpected expenses from vet bills were in there which contributed to the undersaving. It's not a crisis yet, just that I noticed I was more of the attitude "screw it" than obsessing over how much to spend, and where to pinch. If that's a trend, my future saving doesn't look too good, but then again, if I spend more money on stuff that eventually helps us stay self-sufficient/gives us barter opportunities, it may be worth it. So I may go forward with a few things that aren't cheap, because they serve multiple purposes: a greenhouse (or materials for one), for example, would be an expense but something I've wanted and thought about for awhile. And not a bad investment if produce gets very expensive.

I can totally see why people hunker down, too. I have no idea why my impulse was the other way.

[headwinds]

Just a generic reply to your first post.

Today, emphatically, yes.

Do I think it's the right choice? No. It's short sighted. It is falling for the confidence trick. But I think that it is a human behavioral trait which is hard to overcome. The kind of thinking where "It's fucked anyway, so you know, fuck it." In short, I understand and sympathize.

[Metric Mouse]

Earlier today I was reading an article about a guy who lived on less than $200/mo in Thailand. I did some research and figured out that we have enough saved right now, if we were to just take our stash and put it in the bank, to live comfortably in Thailand for 56 years (based on renting a nice house, plus utilities, food, etc).

Off-topic from where the thread went but, did you consider that Thailand is under the control of a military junta and has had multiple coups (most recently in 2014) since becoming a 'democracy' in 1932?

Third world countries with a very low cost of living are great to visit or slow travel through for a few months but, living there for 50-60 years would be a very different proposition.

Would this hold true for someone who was FI? I mean, it may not be perfect, but being rich in a poor country can mitigate a lot of the worst effects of the things you've mentioned.

[Kaspian]

What?!  "Things in the world aren't going my way so I might as well chuck in the towel"?  Never!  Those are faulty thought patterns where I my head gets a shake, a dunk in cold water, a beer, and a dance around the living room to an old Ramones album.  You guys can sit around being vigilant, concerned, getting ulcers, and making yourself crazy by thinking about your own crazy (AKA navel-gazing), going on a high information CNN/Fox/MSNBC diet of lunacy (AKA lazy, binge-watching of inflammatory insanity which just agrees with your own preconceptions and tries to keep you watching by spoon-feeding puréed organic outrage) but none of that really got a real, valuable goal done in this life.  "Worry solved all my problems." <-- Said no high achieving person EVER!

I disagree with this outlook.

I don't care.

As the original post--"spending more due to fatalistic thinking," is a preposterous supposition.  I've seen this sort of things before with friends and acquaintances, "Things outside of my control are upsetting me, therefore I'm going to go stick my own bare ass in a wood chipper."    Fine, you do that, friend-o and good luck to you!

[LouLou]

What?!  "Things in the world aren't going my way so I might as well chuck in the towel"?  Never!  Those are faulty thought patterns where I my head gets a shake, a dunk in cold water, a beer, and a dance around the living room to an old Ramones album.  You guys can sit around being vigilant, concerned, getting ulcers, and making yourself crazy by thinking about your own crazy (AKA navel-gazing), going on a high information CNN/Fox/MSNBC diet of lunacy (AKA lazy, binge-watching of inflammatory insanity which just agrees with your own preconceptions and tries to keep you watching by spoon-feeding puréed organic outrage) but none of that really got a real, valuable goal done in this life.  "Worry solved all my problems." <-- Said no high achieving person EVER!

I disagree with this outlook.

I don't care.

As the original post--"spending more due to fatalistic thinking," is a preposterous supposition.  I've seen this sort of things before with friends and acquaintances, "Things outside of my control are upsetting me, therefore I'm going to go stick my own bare ass in a wood chipper."    Fine, you do that, friend-o and good luck to you!

Did you actually read my post?  I agree that spending more because of fatalistic thinking is not a wise choice.  I disagree with the outlook that people are just having "faulty thought patterns" that can be solved with "a dunk in cold water, a beer, and a dance around the living room to an old Ramones album." If I was stuck in another country for months, away from my home and my job, without any warning whatsoever, going on a YOLO spending spree or dancing around a living room would not be the best reactions.  (I also wouldn't stick my ass in a wood chipper.  Seems painful.)  Is beer even an option when you're stuck in Syria?

In short, I disagreed with OP, and disagreed with you.

[damnedbee]

I've been trying to channel similar thoughts into something constructive. I've been working on improving my emergency preparedness plans, stockpiling the pantry, etc. Basically just preparing for the zombie apocalypse. I'm not a survivalist by any means, but doing something action-oriented gives me a better feeling of control, and that helps with the uncertainty of today's political climate.

[begood]

I've been trying to channel similar thoughts into something constructive. I've been working on improving my emergency preparedness plans, stockpiling the pantry, etc. Basically just preparing for the zombie apocalypse. I'm not a survivalist by any means, but doing something action-oriented gives me a better feeling of control, and that helps with the uncertainty of today's political climate.

I get this, damnedbee, and I hear you, RosieTR.

I'm quite certain that if The Unthinkable were to occur (in whatever fashion your 3:00 a.m. brain constructs), I would be more bunny than fox. That is, whatever I'd managed to hoard would probably be handed over at gunpoint to some asshole in the first twenty-four hours. So I don't kid myself that I can "prepare" for that.

But recent events have triggered (for want of a better word) what I call my "hurricane reflex" - honed during seven years of living in Florida, with its F4 tornadoes and hurricanes from both coasts. That meant always having a full tank of gas, a few hundred dollars in cash, and a supply of medications, food, battery-operated lights/chargers, and water enough to last a few days.

So that's what I'm doing this week: hurricane prep. I'm fully aware that it's an illusory sense of control.