Author Topic: Social Security Calculator  (Read 5345 times)

Tubby

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Social Security Calculator
« on: September 07, 2016, 11:54:27 AM »
Using the Social Security Retirement Estimator and want to make sure I don't end up with the wrong figures.

https://www.ssa.gov/retire/estimator.html

It is easy enough and straightforward enough figuring things out as far as the "typical" numbers go, i.e. retire and collect at 62, 67, or 70.

But I am looking at retiring next year at 56 and holding off collecting until 70.

When I hit the "Add a New Estimate" button, it brings me to a screen that asks me "What age do you plan to stop working?" and gives me a drop down tab. It also asks me to fill in "What is your average future earnings (per year)?"

When I punch in my retirement age of 56, it automatically calculates benefits at 62, which would be roughly $1800/month

In order to see what my plan will result in, retiring at 56 and collecting at 70, do I just choose "70 from the "What age do you plan to stop working?" and fill in $0 for the average future earnings? Doing it that way, it comes up as almost $3200/month, but obviously, I want to make sure I am doing it right.

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

neo von retorch

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2016, 11:59:30 AM »
Note that the 62 and 70 calculations are all based on your 100% full retirement at 67.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/ProgData/ar_drc.html

62 is exactly 70% of what you'll get at 67, and 70 is exactly 124%. I think $3189/month is reasonable based on retiring at age 56 and collecting at age 70.

Tubby

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2016, 01:16:59 PM »
Thanks Neo. I have been reasonably certain of that while formulating my escape, but a look see and confirmation from another certainly helps.

canadian bacon

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2016, 01:59:23 PM »
I used excel to calculate it.   Works well/

In general:
SS takes your last 35 years.  May be actually your highest paid 35 years.
So
List the amount that you have made for the past 35 years or as many years as you can list
Divide the total by 35.
Divide this by 12 to get a monthly average
Now the SS formula is
     (a) 90 percent of the first $856 of his/her average indexed monthly earnings, plus
     (b) 32 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $856 and through $5,157, plus
     (c) 15 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $5,157.

terran

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2016, 02:03:04 PM »
I used excel to calculate it.   Works well/

In general:
SS takes your last 35 years.  May be actually your highest paid 35 years.
So
List the amount that you have made for the past 35 years or as many years as you can list
Divide the total by 35.
Divide this by 12 to get a monthly average
Now the SS formula is
     (a) 90 percent of the first $856 of his/her average indexed monthly earnings, plus
     (b) 32 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $856 and through $5,157, plus
     (c) 15 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $5,157.

Yes, it's the 35 highest. And remember to index for inflation using the values provided here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html

SnackDog

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2016, 02:42:05 PM »
And the figure it gives you is in today's dollars or future dollars?

MDM

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2016, 05:25:41 PM »
And the figure it gives you is in today's dollars or future dollars?

Appears to be in today's dollars.  At least, the numbers from that calculator match the ones in the case study spreadsheet (SocialSecurity tab) for our earnings when assuming 0% for benefit and average wage increases.

Sid Hoffman

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2016, 05:37:19 PM »
And the figure it gives you is in today's dollars or future dollars?

Social Security goes up by the (COLA) rate of inflation every year.  So if you calculate it in today's dollars, that's what it will be worth in inflation adjusted future dollars.  In other words, it might say $3500/month today, but the real payment will be $4300, but because of inflation that $4300 will only be worth $3500: the amount they are showing today.

However I have discovered what appears to be an exception when talking about delaying payment beyond your full retirement age.  What my parents have seen is that their SS estimate went up every year until they reached age 66 - full retirement age.  After that point it went up 8% a year regardless of inflation.  So if the inflation is 0%, who cares, you get your 8% increase.  However suppose inflation is 4%.  You do not get 4% plus another 8% for delaying a year.  You only get the 8% increase, which is now only worth 4% because of inflation.

I could be wrong, but that's what my parents were seeing in the real world.  Because of this, they ended up taking one at 66.5 and the other taking spousal, then switching to individual at 68.5 because the way the math worked out, delaying any longer than that was on the "wrong side" of the odds for payback before dying.

I too use a spreadsheet in LibreOffice for estimating my future social security payment.  Granted, if you do it you'll need to grab the historic inflation tables, your income history, and update it yourself every year, but I view that as good and valuable work that's worth doing every year anyway.  Besides, everyone should be checking their SS annually to make sure it matches their tax statement.  If you don't get that fixed right away if it's wrong, you risk going into retirement having missed out on some income because of an employer understating or underpaying your SS taxes.

One last thing on that subject of taxes: if you have more than a million dollars in a pre-tax account like a 401k, IRA, or anything subject to RMDs, it might be worth your while to get really involved with your after tax estimates.  Social Security is generally tax-free income except if your income goes beyond $25,000 as an individual or $32,000 as a couple.  There's rules and math involved, but even just at age 70, the RMD on $1MM is about $58,800 and if you're also getting $3200/month ($38,400 total) from Social Security, that's $97,200 all together.  That's clearly more than $25,000.  Double everything if you're a married couple each collecting a similar SS and RMD amount, but in the worse situation of having only a $32k threshold, not $50k.  If you're married but filing separate it drops to $0 before you pay taxes on SS income.

You might find that it's to greater tax advantage to take SS earlier.  The earlier you take SS, the less you need to pull from your own retirement accounts, which might be taxable events anyway.  This would be especially true if you're doing a Roth ladder to move the maximum amount possible from your taxable accounts to a Roth account every year in order to tax shelter that money.  Putting off both your SS and RMDs until age 70 might mean you are simply setting yourself up to pay a crapload more money in taxes at that point.

Everyone's situation is a little different, but it may be well worth your while to look in to it.  At the very least, if you're retiring at age 56, you should start going over tax options using your new free time.  Becoming a master at tax strategy is one of your new side jobs at that point, and it may very well pay you thousands of dollars a year for the rest of your life by doing it well.

SwordGuy

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Re: Social Security Calculator
« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2016, 10:50:12 AM »

Now the SS formula is
     (a) 90 percent of the first $856 of his/her average indexed monthly earnings, plus
     (b) 32 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $856 and through $5,157, plus
     (c) 15 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $5,157.

That's a pretty hefty subsidy to the lower income earners.   I don't mind, but a thank you would be nice now and then.