Author Topic: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting  (Read 8903 times)

FI4good

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Hey all,

 I looked in my retirement account and saw a sea of red ... just so close to that next milestone or round number and now going in the opposite direction. Doh !

I thought i'd just post to say lets get through this, lets not get disheartened . We're back to late Novembers' all time highs and everyone was cock-a-hoop in the mood for buying then, crazy old markets !

Stay the course, keep on with the plan, this too shall pass. Stoicism is the mustachian way .   

JLee

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2018, 03:42:29 PM »
STOCKS ARE ON SALE!

SwitchActiveDWG

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 03:56:12 PM »
Top was in this time.

marty998

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2018, 05:08:14 AM »
Top was in this time.

Oh don't start!

More pain on the way... This really is one of those obvious times where you can wait a *little* bit if you need to. Tech stocks on the nose over in your world, banking stocks on the nose over in my world.

Save up and hit buy regularly. Ride it all the way down and all the way back up again in months and years to come.

asauer

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2018, 05:20:17 AM »
Thanks for posting this!  Weíve taken a big slide back and it can be disheartening.

ZiziPB

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2018, 05:28:35 AM »
I'm less than 4 weeks from FIRE, so I haven't been feeling warm and fuzzy about the market recently :-)  My portfolio has been moving down in $10K daily increments and I have just made my last monthly auto investment on Monday...

Dicey

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2018, 06:07:05 AM »
I'm going to add that if you're part of one of those "race to..." threads and recent market activity means technically you don't "belong" there any more, DON'T move back to your old group! You got there before fair and square and your numbers will return again. Keep the faith, keep adding to your stache. Now is not the time to panic or punish yourself for something out of your control.

I hit my highest savings rate ever in 2008 and am FIRE now because of what happened when the market roared back.

Piling on to the group hug.

ender

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2018, 06:16:09 AM »
The only reason I noticed is because our net worth went down last month in spite of us shoving $4k or so into retirement and getting our tax refund.

C'est la vie, I'm past the point of really worrying about this. Though as an accumulator in the middle of accumulating I guess it's easier for me to say that.

GuitarStv

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2018, 07:29:07 AM »
Meh.  So you re-balance from your bonds to your stocks.

obstinate

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2018, 08:07:40 AM »
I encourage anyone who is looking at their portfolio regularly enough to have noticed this dip to stop doing so. People who look at their portfolios often perform overall worse in the market, because they become tempted to adjust and fiddle. Don't tempt yourself!

Dicey

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2018, 08:12:34 AM »
I encourage anyone who is looking at their portfolio regularly enough to have noticed this dip to stop doing so. People who look at their portfolios often perform overall worse in the market, because they become tempted to adjust and fiddle. Don't tempt yourself!
Excellent advice. Interestingly, I find myself watching more often now than I normally do. I have no intention of touching anything. Well, maybe I'm tempted to dump in a little bit of otherwise idle cash...

dude

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2018, 09:08:00 AM »
I'm down 3% from my portfolio high ($747k back in late Jan), and up $10k for the year (likely from contributions), largely because I dropped to a 50/50 portfolio back in January. Planning to keep some powder dry for a deep correction, when I'll go back to 60/40, or 75/25, depending. PE10 is still at 31+, which is twice the mean. Shit is still way overvalued and reversion to the mean is pretty immutable in markets. Some would call it market timing, but I call it asset preservation. The downside is much greater than the upside right now in this market, IMHO, so I'm content to stay 50/50 until a big move happens.

jim555

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2018, 09:11:03 AM »
Double hugs for those who dropped out of the double comma club. 

Maenad

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2018, 09:15:09 AM »
Now is not the time to panic or punish yourself for something out of your control.

This is an important reminder - focus on what you can control: emergency fund, savings rate, etc. Stick to your IPS. It'll be OK.

Adding to the hug.

Freedomin5

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2018, 09:21:17 AM »
For some reason, the term ďmasochisticĒ came to mind when I read that some people have been checking MORE often. Why, just why?

Iíve found myself checking investment accounts less often. I do check my bank account more often waiting for my paychecks to go through (they donít always get deposited on the same day each month) so I know when I can dump more money into investments.

In times like these, ignorance is bliss. :)

Reynolds531

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2018, 09:35:27 AM »
I love the smell of burning money in the morning.

fattest_foot

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2018, 09:47:33 AM »
The thing is, this is still relatively minor. I'm not sure we've even hit "correction" territory of 10% yet (think we're around 9% off the January high).

Imma

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2018, 10:31:07 AM »
I encourage anyone who is looking at their portfolio regularly enough to have noticed this dip to stop doing so. People who look at their portfolios often perform overall worse in the market, because they become tempted to adjust and fiddle. Don't tempt yourself!

My broker only updates portfolio values once a week, which I think is excellent.

I'm not getting nervous yet. I remember 2008, I have nerves of steel because of that period. If anything, the eternally well performing market of the last couple of years is getting me more nervous - it just can't go on like this. I don't feel our economies are prepared for the inevitable next downturn. I do feel a lot more prepared for bad times to hit than I was last time, so I'm not that worried about my personal situation.

partgypsy

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #18 on: April 04, 2018, 10:56:58 AM »
Psychologically, I was hoping to get my property division done for my divorce "before" the crap hit the fan, because the division is a fixed dollar amount (versus percentage) and it will take out a much bigger bite. But I can only move as fast as courts move (end of May?).
Otherwise I don't care. I'm going to be retiring at a regular retirement age regardless. 

fuzzy math

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #19 on: April 04, 2018, 12:20:51 PM »
Thanks. Pulled the plug in Feb and put 20k final payoff of sick leave into market retirement acct absolute peak. Fortunately, we oversaved and hold cash, so the 500k drop in net worth doesnt feel like much of an issue...still, kinda some bad sequence of returns luck.

Did the 9% correction really drop you 500k??! Because that's UUH 5.5MM :o


ducky19

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #20 on: April 04, 2018, 12:30:57 PM »
Wait, is something going on with the markets...?

Basenji

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #21 on: April 04, 2018, 01:01:01 PM »
Wait, is something going on with the markets...?

My thoughts exactly.

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2018, 01:10:37 PM »
While my overall dollar amount change due to the recent market gyrations may be near the 2008 dollar changes I saw then, I need to keep in mind the percent change is WAY less than then. 

If I could sleep soundly back then, while I was laid off one week a month and only saving 30-some percent of my income, I can surely sleep soundly now with a full time job and saving almost 50 percent.  (Negative visualization FTW.)


sui generis

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #23 on: April 04, 2018, 01:13:38 PM »
I'm less than 4 weeks from FIRE, so I haven't been feeling warm and fuzzy about the market recently :-)  My portfolio has been moving down in $10K daily increments and I have just made my last monthly auto investment on Monday...
Extra hugs for you.  It's hard to face this sequence of return timing.  I'm still 10 months away, but definitely not as excited for "stocks being on sale" as I would have been if a correction had come to the market a few years ago, when people started saying it was time. 

I'm trying to be like I was in 2008 - not looking.  But I hear, and I imagine.  I was a lot more oblivious in 2008.  Didn't have electronic accounts set up, and every time a 401(k) statement came in the mail, I put in straight into my files without opening it, and didn't look for years.  I don't think I'll hold out that long this time, but I'm taking it day by day.

alanB

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2018, 01:21:35 PM »
Just a fraternal hug, no love for the ladies? ;P  Though I guess the women I know usually do not care what the market is doing.

Thanks. Pulled the plug in Feb and put 20k final payoff of sick leave into market retirement acct absolute peak. Fortunately, we oversaved and hold cash, so the 500k drop in net worth doesnt feel like much of an issue...still, kinda some bad sequence of returns luck.

Dang that is some sick sick leave money.

never give up

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #25 on: April 04, 2018, 01:27:29 PM »
I havenít logged in, I canít bear to look,
Too many days where the market has shook.
The stock market is done for, that is the fear,
Will it all be ok, itís not really clear.
Having just discovered MMM, Iíve really got the bug,
But now markets are volatile, I could do with that hug.
I will not panic and I wonít market time,
But why do falling markets make me nervously rhyme?

Radagast

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #26 on: April 04, 2018, 02:12:22 PM »
Vanguard Total World Stock Index will end the day with a YTD loss of about 0.6% with dividends included. Basically, nothing has happened.

Nick_Miller

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #27 on: April 04, 2018, 02:27:03 PM »
I'm going to add that if you're part of one of those "race to..." threads and recent market activity means technically you don't "belong" there any more, DON'T move back to your old group! You got there before fair and square and your numbers will return again. Keep the faith, keep adding to your stache. Now is not the time to panic or punish yourself for something out of your control.

I hit my highest savings rate ever in 2008 and am FIRE now because of what happened when the market roared back.

Piling on to the group hug.

We've had this discussion on the Race to $250K thread, and I think the consensus was that if it's a small drop and you'll quickly work your way back to the minimum of the next bracket, then stay in the current bracket.

However, if it's a big drop that will take more than a few months to recover from, then most people said they would (begrudgingly) move down to the old bracket. I think most folks view the brackets as "what you have" versus "what you had."


RedmondStash

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #28 on: April 04, 2018, 02:32:53 PM »
Good thread.

I am sticking to my guns of "When you have money, buy; when you need money, sell."

It's all fairy gold until you sell it. The gains aren't really real, and the losses aren't either, although the gains always feel good and the losses sting like crazy.

When you look back at market performance over the last 1-2 years, it gets a lot less stressful. Still up ~25% in the last 2 years. And that crazy, out-of-control ride upward couldn't last forever. A correction is a normal, natural thing, and does not mean something is wrong -- and we're not even at a correction yet.

The rivers will flow with milk and honey again someday. Just be patient.

marty998

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #29 on: April 04, 2018, 03:08:38 PM »
Wait, is something going on with the markets...?

My thoughts exactly.

I'm calling BS. You guys know exactly what is going on.

bluebelle

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #30 on: April 04, 2018, 03:15:58 PM »
Just a fraternal hug, no love for the ladies? ;P  Though I guess the women I know usually do not care what the market is doing.

ouch....I'd say you know the the wrong women, :-)  (please - I'm not trying to start a misogynistic side topic....and I think it depends on your social circle, in mine, the women pay more attention to the numbers, the men are blissfully ignorant)

ChpBstrd

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #31 on: April 04, 2018, 03:51:37 PM »
On the bright side, the covered calls I entered last week are up about $1k and implied volatility is making the premiums fat AF for the next round. Of course, the shares are down much more than that, but now I own them plus the $1k. I'll call that a gain in my mental account book.

DreamFIRE

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2018, 04:21:47 PM »
The thing is, this is still relatively minor. I'm not sure we've even hit "correction" territory of 10% yet (think we're around 9% off the January high).
The S&P entered into correction in February, then again earlier this week on April 2nd.  The Dow and Nasdaq have also entered correction territory this year.

Missy B

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #33 on: April 04, 2018, 04:23:23 PM »
I'm down 3% from my portfolio high ($747k back in late Jan), and up $10k for the year (likely from contributions), largely because I dropped to a 50/50 portfolio back in January. Planning to keep some powder dry for a deep correction, when I'll go back to 60/40, or 75/25, depending. PE10 is still at 31+, which is twice the mean. Shit is still way overvalued and reversion to the mean is pretty immutable in markets. Some would call it market timing, but I call it asset preservation. The downside is much greater than the upside right now in this market, IMHO, so I'm content to stay 50/50 until a big move happens.

Thanks for this, dude. Reversion to the mean. It is the truth, and it can be hard to remember sometimes, late in a long bull market when all the pundits are opining that This Time is Different, No Really, It Is.

I wonder to myself what will trigger the next big (35%+) correction. I think China's highly leveraged debt will play a role. I wonder who holds that debt, and how it will play out should the debt have to be covered.

Basenji

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #34 on: April 04, 2018, 04:40:01 PM »
Wait, is something going on with the markets...?

My thoughts exactly.

I'm calling BS. You guys know exactly what is going on.

Goodness! I know something is happening. But I rarely look at actual numbers in my accounts because I'm not withdrawing right now. And I tend to get news in very small and sporadic chunks via old-school newspaper outlets. I'm not a news junkie. Our family $ plan is almost completely automated in terms of paycheck deposits into accounts. But sure, if I have a scootch of money sitting around and you people really start screaming bloody murder (the post hug-it-out stage), I'll probably toss some bucks at Vanguard.

alanB

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #35 on: April 04, 2018, 05:57:14 PM »
Just a fraternal hug, no love for the ladies? ;P  Though I guess the women I know usually do not care what the market is doing.

ouch....I'd say you know the the wrong women, :-)  (please - I'm not trying to start a misogynistic side topic....and I think it depends on your social circle, in mine, the women pay more attention to the numbers, the men are blissfully ignorant)

Haha I meant it to be more misandrist, the men are all panicky and the women are keeping cool. I still think all deserve hugs though

ducky19

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #36 on: April 05, 2018, 05:59:41 AM »
Wait, is something going on with the markets...?

My thoughts exactly.

I'm calling BS. You guys know exactly what is going on.

Goodness! I know something is happening. But I rarely look at actual numbers in my accounts because I'm not withdrawing right now. And I tend to get news in very small and sporadic chunks via old-school newspaper outlets. I'm not a news junkie. Our family $ plan is almost completely automated in terms of paycheck deposits into accounts. But sure, if I have a scootch of money sitting around and you people really start screaming bloody murder (the post hug-it-out stage), I'll probably toss some bucks at Vanguard.

Honestly didn't have a clue until I read this thread, and then just kinda shrugged. I stopped checking my account and listening to the news at the beginning of February when the volatility started heating up - there's no point really, when I'm not planning to touch it for another ten years. I glanced at the news this morning and had to chuckle when I saw that all the hand-wringing from yesterday was for naught! Not to say that there won't be additional volatility this year, just that I won't be paying much attention to it. Stay the course, keep plowing money into the market. Easy peasy.

jlcnuke

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #37 on: April 05, 2018, 06:45:19 AM »
STOCKS ARE ON SALE!

My thoughts exactly.  No reason to think this is going to be worse than the worst case historical scenario for SWRs, so no reason to deviate from the plan whether you're FIRE already or working towards it. Of course, that assumes your FIRE plans are "reasonable" and not "exceptionally optimistic".

ender

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #38 on: April 05, 2018, 07:05:05 AM »
I guess this type of hug will be more necessary when we're not saving so much a month that our net worth still trends upwards even when the market apparently is 'hurting' ?

Imustacheyouaquestion

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #39 on: April 05, 2018, 07:13:01 AM »
Double hugs for those who dropped out of the double comma club.

Always makes me think of Silicon Valley now:
« Last Edit: April 05, 2018, 07:14:36 AM by Imustacheyouaquestion »

Imustacheyouaquestion

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #40 on: April 05, 2018, 07:19:23 AM »
I mean, sure, I don't like watching my net worth decrease. But this isn't even a full correction yet (10% drop). I might be worried if I had just retired because of sequence of returns risk. Otherwise? Net worth is just a number on paper while you're still accumulating assets.

mathlete

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #41 on: April 05, 2018, 08:08:45 AM »
Burn it all down!!


MonkeyJenga

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #42 on: April 05, 2018, 08:37:05 AM »
I FIRE'd in November, but I'm not worried. I already had a buffer, and my spending has been lower than expected (under $500 a month). I'm also casually looking for jobs in a passion field. If my expenses go up, it will probably be because I have income and need to pay rent to stay in one place.

the_fixer

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #43 on: April 05, 2018, 09:40:57 AM »
Would that be a Bear Hug?

Each time I check my account I have more shares than the last time.

Seems to be going up for me... shrug

For thoes that are fire or getting ready to fire sending my love
« Last Edit: April 05, 2018, 09:53:31 AM by the_fixer »

Tris Prior

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #44 on: April 05, 2018, 09:57:00 AM »
My stash went down by pretty close to the exact amount that I put into it last year. It is tough for me to max my 401k and Roth on my salary, but I'm making myself do it anyway, and it's hard not to feel like I sacrified for nothing and just flushed all that money down the toilet. Yes, I know it did not actually go down the toilet and that it goes back up again.

I was looking at my balance frequently because seeing it go up was motivating to me, and helped me feel a little less deprived, as I've been saying no to a LOT of things I want to do in order to max my accounts. I need to stop doing that; it's just making me more depressed.

OurTown

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #45 on: April 05, 2018, 10:12:04 AM »
If volatility is causing a severe emotional reaction and making you seriously question keeping the money in the market, your asset allocation may be too aggressive. 

ChpBstrd

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #46 on: April 05, 2018, 10:53:00 AM »
I started the following thread to discuss an alternative way of looking at FIRE numbers and market declines. This mentality may be a more comfortable way of plowing through corrections/recessions on the way to FIRE. Market prices determine your "net worth" but number of shares owned is a better predictor of when you can retire. Net worth fluctuates all over the place, but the proper way to watch one's progress toward FIRE is the steady upward accumulation of shares.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/fire-number-in-terms-of-shares/

GuitarStv

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #47 on: April 05, 2018, 11:02:43 AM »
If volatility is causing a severe emotional reaction and making you seriously question keeping the money in the market, your asset allocation may be too aggressive.

+1

It will be interesting to see how many folks currently 100% stock are still there after the next 2008 financial crisis.  I suspect that a great many people will not have the will to actually stick to their current plan.

aceyou

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #48 on: April 05, 2018, 11:03:01 AM »
For some reason, the term ďmasochisticĒ came to mind when I read that some people have been checking MORE often. Why, just why?

Iíve found myself checking investment accounts less often. I do check my bank account more often waiting for my paychecks to go through (they donít always get deposited on the same day each month) so I know when I can dump more money into investments.

In times like these, ignorance is bliss. :)

For the same reason that people check prices more around black friday...businesses are on sale right now all across this amazing world or ours. All my investment decisions are automated, so nothing about checking is actionable, but I still like to look each day and celebrate my good luck. What a great time to be alive. 

birdman2003

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Re: Share the love, a fraternal hug for those who's stashes are hurting
« Reply #49 on: April 05, 2018, 11:16:07 AM »
Do you think a lot of baby boomers in their 60's are pulling out of the stock markets as they retire and go with a more conservative portfolio?