You say you can't see staying in this job for more than 5 years, correct? So you are going to be leaving it early anyway, which renders the "stay 15 more years for a full pension" number irrelevant. What you need to focus on is the difference in the value of the pension now vs. in 5 years. From your description, it sounds like that's pretty much a wash, because you'd think you'd have basically the same amount if you just took the $230K and invested it on your own, yes? In which case you can ignore the pension entirely in your analysis, because it is basically worth the same amount in both scenarios.
You are correct on both accounts and we should probably stop considering the pension since there is a high likelihood I won't stick it out until the end anyway and over the next 10 years it will essentially be a wash.
So with that out of the way, I think there are lots of missing parts here. You have an option in your wife's possible new area; what options might she have in your current area? And what options might you have 5 years from now, given that you say you can't see staying in your current job past that time? (Or is 5 years your FIRE target?) And what do you think your post-FIRE expenses will be? Is it the same as your current $35K target? Would that go up more in the HCOL area?
I think you need the whole picture -- likely 2 incomes + expenses + lifestyle here vs. likely 2 incomes + expenses + liffestyle there, so you can compare how each option would affect your path to FIRE. (I throw in "lifestyle" because I was about to jump in with warnings about buying into the longer commute that comes in many HCOL areas, but then you mentioned that your commutes would actually get *better* -- to me, that is awesome and a significant advantage for moving. But make sure you can afford a house in that in-between area and like the neighborhood(s) there).
My wife absolutely loves her company and her job and is a reason she is excited to move up and build her career with them. She probably would have other options closer to home but leaving for something closer in our current area wouldn't be something she would even consider at this point.
We both would like to have the option of FIRE in 5 years and then reevaluate when we get there. Working another 10 years doesn't really bother us but neither one of us wants to worry about regular full time employment past our early 50's. We both have fathers that are working like dogs in their early 60's and we have vowed to each other that we will do everything in our control to make sure that doesn't happen to us.
My options in 5 years would probably be better if I took this new job because I would have a wider variety of experience. This job is an option because of what I've accomplished over the last 10 years and staying in the current job another 5 years most likely would not open any other opportunities that I couldn't already pursue today.
We are assuming that our post FIRE expenses will be the same as our pre FIRE expenses to error on the side of being conservative; however, we both want to relocate to a small/medium sized town with a low cost of living when we are ready to retire.
We have looked at a budget for both areas and while we expect our expenses to increase we believe it will be offset by my wife's raise in pay. I would lose the retirement match that I get now which means that is the main difference between staying and going so maybe that's why I am fixated on the pension (more for the match than the actual eventual pension benefit) but as we discussed before I may give that up eventually anyway. Therefore I don't expect our lifestyle to change much between the two areas.
If you quit your job earlier than official pension age, don't you then build up a percentage of your pension?
It will pay 2.5% interest which I can rollover whenever I want. My understanding is that the defined benefit formula only considers years of service and my final salary so I don't think that will change. The pension system does not have cost of living adjustments.
If you quit your job, will you roll your pension over into private investment or just look at the defined benefit as a bonus when it is available to you?
PS. Separately from everything else, I suspect that the emotional growth from taking a calculated risk that both people are happy with is good for the individuals and, by shared experience, even better for a couple. You would be developing your choice muscles and commitment-to-each-other's-best-life muscles rather than your endure the pain and boredom muscles. Just a thought.
Maybe combine the risk with a joint commitment to making thrifty choices in the expensive new city, locking in both career growth and financial advances? Fwiw, here are links to a couple who reached FI by living the Big City as renters instead of homeowners.
Bicycle_B, I am so glad you mentioned the emotional growth factor. Even just considering this option has brought us closer together, something we have both noticed. When my wife went back to college and we went down to one income, it had the same effect, we saw ourselves as a team and we became so much closer during that experience. My wife always felt guilty during those years for not contributing but it made me so happy seeing her achieve something she had always wanted to and it was definitely the right long term decision. We learned to be frugal too and it had no impact on our happiness. I can see us making thrifty choices in our new situation because we've done it before and it was a great sense of pride for both of us when she graduated without a single penny of student debt.
Renting is definitely on the table so thank you for sending those links. We want to get the right house at the right price and we may have to be patient before that happens or maybe as you suggested we rent before we move to our FIRE friendly community in 5 to 10 years.
