Author Topic: Safe Initial Withdrawal Rate too Safe?  (Read 1731 times)

gluskap

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Safe Initial Withdrawal Rate too Safe?
« on: November 25, 2015, 10:45:49 AM »
Has anyone read this article:

http://www.bobneiman.com/NWM_Pages/Decision%20Rules%20%26%20Portfolio%20Management%20for%20Retirees%20Safe%20Withdrawal%20Rate%20-%20John%20Guyton.pdf

I think by just being a little flexible on your withdrawal rules you can still safely have an initial withdrawal rate much higher than the standard 4% rule.  According to the article, by just following a few simple rules, ie

1.  Do not increase your withdrawal rate in a year when returns are negative
2.  No makeups for missed increase in any subsequent year
3.  Cap inflation increase to 6%
4.  There is no makeup for capped inflation adjustment in subsequent years

By following these rules, you can have successful initial withdrawal rates as high as 5-6%!  This would allow you to retire on a much smaller stache with less risk.  Any thoughts on this???

MDM

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Re: Safe Initial Withdrawal Rate too Safe?
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2015, 02:25:30 PM »
See also http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/variable-percentage-withdrawal-(vpw)/ and the bogleheads thread it references.

Many ways to skin the cat - all, however, tested on historical cats and thus no guarantee that the next feline will behave similarly.  But yes, being flexible instead of dogmatic is a good idea.

 

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