Roaring 20s?

[10SNE1]

Does anyone else feel like history will repeat itself? A pandemic occurred in 1918 and was followed by the "roaring 20s." We have a pandemic in 2020, and it feels like the roaring 20s in a way now since the US stock market is chugging right along, and the housing market is soaring in many places. It feels like there is little consequence economically from the current pandemic, and it doesn't seem right to me. Does anyone else feel this way?

[nath]

At the start of 2020, before the pandemic hit, I was thinking the same thing.
History can certainly repeat , and the conditions seemed ripe for the 2020s to be 10 years of the greatest asset price appreciation ever.
Of course anything can now happen, but with the US and every other country’s massive stimulus going around, it certainly looks like valuations will keep pushing higher for a while yet.

But regardless of booms, busts, recessions or depression,  the way to stay ahead is invest in real assets. Simple.
Property and shares being the main asset classes, and other commodities, collectibles and other currencies (even a small amount of crypto) are worth having in a diversified portfolio.
If there is a major drop, hold tight, try to keep buying , dollar cost averaging and in the end all will be fine.
Good luck all

[ender]

I'm a little confused how the "housing market soaring" as you say isn't a direct economic consequence of the covid pandemic.

[cool7hand]

I thought that Nicholas A. Christakis, MD, PhD, MPHmade a good argument for a post-Covid roaring 20s in this podcast: https://samharris.org/podcasts/222-pandemic-incompetence/.

[dodojojo]

I hope 2029 isn't anything like 1929...I'm in the 2030 FIRE cohort...

[slappy]

I hope 2029 isn't anything like 1929...I'm in the 2030 FIRE cohort...

My thoughts exactly...

[10SNE1]

I'm a little confused how the "housing market soaring" as you say isn't a direct economic consequence of the covid pandemic.

I forgot to specify negative consequences. The housing market was beginning to soar about 3 to 5 years prior to the pandemic IMO (at least in my area). I'd consider the housing market to be affected by interest rates rather than the pandemic.

[Malossi792]

I'm just going to leave this here...
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-24/personal-finance-don-t-count-on-another-roaring-20s-stock-market

[RWD]

I hope 2029 isn't anything like 1929...I'm in the 2030 FIRE cohort...

My thoughts exactly...

Well your investments will have tripled or maybe even quadrupled in the five years leading up to '29. Just slide towards a more conservative allocation as your FIRE date approaches.

[GodlessCommie]

Forget 20s - if history repeats, I sincerely hope we don't repeat 30s and especially 40s.

[HenryDavid]

Let's hope history is a bit different this time.
Look up "1920/21 depression." Big deflation after the war and pandemic ended.

Then after that all the "roaring" began.
But I've always heard it was named after a nautical term to do with crazy storms (where did I read that)? So some boats floated, lots of others sank. The 20s were a terrible time for many people. Some fortunes were made, others lost. Criminals organized, Hitler's startup got started up. As did Mussolini's.
It's always interesting to peel back the popular image stuck onto a time-period (like the "80s" or the "90s" in recent times) and see how much detail there is underneath.
Have  look at The Deluge by Adam Tooze, for example. Interesting book.

[GodlessCommie]

But I've always heard it was named after a nautical term to do with crazy storms (where did I read that)? So some boats floated, lots of others sank.

I read, essentially, the same. It's not parties, booze, and dancing; but strong, relentless winds that could bring you to your destination extra fast or make your ship capsize and sink.

[American GenX]

Way too much inflation with all the government spending and painfully low interest rates.  I'm having to cut back even further to keep my savings rate up and keep FIRE on target in the next year.

[jehovasfitness23]

nah, this time it will be the US that falls into authoritarianism

[Psychstache]

It's always interesting to peel back the popular image stuck onto a time-period (like the "80s" or the "90s" in recent times) and see how much detail there is underneath.

Guess that's why Billy Joel wrote a whole song about it. :)

[thesis]

These pundits will call the top and 95% of them will be wrong.

That's the problem. I get that history tends to repeat itself, but it tends not to repeat under the same circumstances, and doesn't repeat in precisely the same way. We also have roughly 90 years of additional legislation designed to prevent what caused the Great Depression. So I'm skeptical of pretty much every prediction.

[utaca]

Of course no one knows what will happen in the stock market or in the broader culture. However, since we're speculating, I would be excited to see something like the 1920s cultural renaissance again - big strides in various art forms, a more libertine youth culture and a general excitement in the air. I think there's a good argument that socially and culturally, the rise of modernism in the 1920s was every bit as profound as the changes that emerged in the 1960s.     

[Simpli-Fi]

I kind of would like to think we are in the roaring 20's...but I'm just basing this off of cFIREsim as my greatest portfolio cycle starts in 1921; my modest $3.1M starting portfolio grows to $101M by 1968.  WTF mate?!

[dodojojo]

Well, I guess I'll win the game if I sell every thing on October 28, 2029...