I get a little worried about this graphs showing me having a 50% chance on being broke at 67. I just really hope that my excel sheet with Norwegian tax rules is more correct for me. It probably is, but it doesn't show the chances of different outcomes like this graph does. One thing that is wrong with these numbers is of course that I won't FIRE this year, but earliest next year, so I would need to run the calculator again next year. And we should prepare for doing some consultancy work during FIRE.
I do realize very well that death can appear at any time, as my father passed away unexpected when he was 50.
I put in our entire stash. DH and I will receive normal pensions from the age of 67, that is why I put 67 in as last age to need FIRE stash. DH is a few years older than I am, so I put in his income from 65. For taxes I put in what we need to pay yearly on wealth taxes, which is 1%. What we take out of stash is not taxed the first 14 years, but taxed 30% for the remaining years (delayed tax). I cannot enter that in the graph. That's why I have an excel sheet.
The graph looks about right to me. Even though it is obviously more grey than this, I often view my ER as being two distinct periods as well, a similar 20 years before age 67 where my plan is to spend from my taxable accounts, and then the time after 67 where I'll spend from my retirement accounts, have SS and Medicare, kids will all be independent, etc.
Even though 20 years is a lot less time than 50, or whatever number we should use to consider the rest of our lives, once your swr goes over 5% the chance of failure increases pretty quickly if you're that invested in equities.
To see actual returns for some time periods I backtested portfolios close to yours and if you had retired in 2000 it would have run dry in a very quick 12 years at that withdraw rate. That was obviously an absolute horrible date to retire, but even if it was 1998 you would have run out in 18 years and if 2002 it looks like you'd run dry in a similar 18 years.
Running dry in my taxable account in 18 years was not a disastrous result for me as I would have access to my retirement accounts and/or early SS, etc, and of course its not like the portfolio disappeared at once so slight adjustments to the withdraw could have helped it survive the 20. But I guess that may not be the case with your plan if this is a barebones spend number for you and you don't have early access to those retirement pensions (or early access would reduce their income below future needs). You still don't have the problem of having run out of money and still have 30 years left with nothing, b/c the time between running out of money and the pension starting is not gonna be huge even in a bad case scenario, but there definitely is a fair chance there will be some time period between running out and the pension starting to think about and plan for.
But in the end, as you note re: your father's death, and as how I love this graphing tool throws in your face, one of your biggest risks to having a nice long successful retirement is not retiring early enough, as though your money may or may not become a problem the death curve is definitely gonna catch you at some point....so just figure out your tweaks (sounds like potential consulting work may be your answer if things do start to go south too early)