One thing I always struggled with on the FIRE discussions was the enthusiastic discussion of the fact that people die or get incapacitated earlier than 'traditional retirement age', so that's a great reason to ER. As a corollary, there is also enthusiastic talks about how, if we manage to live a really long time, we will spend less and leave lots of money to others. Both of these discussions made me a little sad as to why, if you really are 'betting' to die in 10 - 20 years, then do ER and don't complain if you don't die, but stop talking about it like you are 60 or 70 years old. Also, if you live below your means for much longer than expected, then enjoy figuring out to do with all that excess then. But in the meantime, just figure out a good way to optimize for the foreseeable future. The long term for you will inevitably be something different from whatever an average projects, and only you can be the best judge if you, say, eat better than average, exercise more than average, have better genetics than average, build net worth better than average, etc.
In my engineering job, Operations complains when we try to make things inflexible and reduce their job to the point where they don't have to think. That is apparently the most dangerous situation, when inexperienced people rely on safeguards as a matter of course.
Replacing 'expected outcomes' with 'normalized outcomes' subjects the individual to inevitable disappointment.