Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

[Mgmny]

Thank you for making it, this is my favorite calculator.
My wife finds it depressing though but I think that having that grey area staring in your face is a good reminder that life is finite.

Why is it depressing?

Because we all gonna die

Memento Mori

[CCCA]

I thought I'd update everyone here that I've added two new features to the Rich, Broke or Dead calculator:

(1) is the ability to include income and expense streams that are not adjusted for inflation. To make an income or expense stream constant in nominal dollars, you will need to add an asterisk '*' after the number.

(2) You can download all the yearly data on income, spending and portfolio balance for all historical cycles by pressing the download CSV button.

[TomTX]

Awesome!

My pension will be non-inflation adjusted (not so awesome...)

[CCCA]

Awesome!

My pension will be non-inflation adjusted (not so awesome...)

Inflation has been pretty low for awhile so hopefully the pension being non-inflation adjusted won't be too bad.  Unless you are trying to build a house.

[Omy]

I might have said it before, but thanks so much for creating and maintaining this calculator. It was eye opening and a major catalyst for me being able to finally "pull the trigger" on FIRE almost 2 years ago.

[Huffduf41]

Outstanding tool, absolutely destroys the tool that the "Professionals" at Fidelity use.

[henramdrea]

I might have said it before, but thanks so much for creating and maintaining this calculator. It was eye opening and a major catalyst for me being able to finally "pull the trigger" on FIRE almost 2 years ago.

I'll second that as well.  I find I tend to consult this tool along with a compound interest calculator when I'm thinking about coast FIRE numbers.

[Much Fishing to Do]

I might have said it before, but thanks so much for creating and maintaining this calculator. It was eye opening and a major catalyst for me being able to finally "pull the trigger" on FIRE almost 2 years ago.

I'll second that as well.  I find I tend to consult this tool along with a compound interest calculator when I'm thinking about coast FIRE numbers.

I'll pile on.  I still use this all the time and really enjoy the updates.  The spending flex/threshold fits into what my plans have always been but I had never had an easy way to factor it into a calculator.  And I've always wanted some sort confirmation that not only my chance of success (not running out of money) was greater than some very high X% (which every calc does), but also that my inflation adjusted starting balance would at some decent % chance hold its value over time, and the Bal<start option is amazing for not only giving that at the end but for actually visualizing over the entire retirement span.

[TomTX]

So, how hard would it be to model a "bond tent" strategy?

ie: go into retirement at something like a 50:50 stock:bond ratio, but incrementally convert to something like 80:20 or 90:10 over the course of 5-10 years.

I've seen claims it reduces failure probability, but I'm not aware of a retirement calculator that includes it as an option - just a perpetual fixed ratio. I'd be interested in fiddling around with different ratios and different timeframes.

[Saffron]

One think I'd like to be able to do with this model is add more than one extra income stream. Basically, I would like to be able to model a period of low income work at the beginning of my "retirement" and then a second period of income modelling receiving my social security pension later in life.

[CCCA]

Thanks for all the kind words. It makes me happy that people are using it and finding it so useful. Also hoping that it doesn't lead anyone astray. :)

One think I'd like to be able to do with this model is add more than one extra income stream. Basically, I would like to be able to model a period of low income work at the beginning of my "retirement" and then a second period of income modelling receiving my social security pension later in life.

There is already an option to do this. Just separate your income streams (and start and end ages) by semicolons (;).

So, how hard would it be to model a "bond tent" strategy?

ie: go into retirement at something like a 50:50 stock:bond ratio, but incrementally convert to something like 80:20 or 90:10 over the course of 5-10 years.

I've seen claims it reduces failure probability, but I'm not aware of a retirement calculator that includes it as an option - just a perpetual fixed ratio. I'd be interested in fiddling around with different ratios and different timeframes.

Probably wouldn't be too hard, but it's not something I've really heard about.  Maybe I'll read more about it at some point and then think about it some more.

[Saffron]

Thanks for all the kind words. It makes me happy that people are using it and finding it so useful. Also hoping that it doesn't lead anyone astray. :)

One think I'd like to be able to do with this model is add more than one extra income stream. Basically, I would like to be able to model a period of low income work at the beginning of my "retirement" and then a second period of income modelling receiving my social security pension later in life.

There is already an option to do this. Just separate your income streams (and start and end ages) by semicolons (;).

!!!! You're awesome!

[TomTX]

So, how hard would it be to model a "bond tent" strategy?

ie: go into retirement at something like a 50:50 stock:bond ratio, but incrementally convert to something like 80:20 or 90:10 over the course of 5-10 years.

I've seen claims it reduces failure probability, but I'm not aware of a retirement calculator that includes it as an option - just a perpetual fixed ratio. I'd be interested in fiddling around with different ratios and different timeframes.

Probably wouldn't be too hard, but it's not something I've really heard about.  Maybe I'll read more about it at some point and then think about it some more.

The general idea is that one fairly large source of portfolio risk is a stock market crash shortly after retiring, which is mitigated by having more bonds/cash. The flip side is the long-term inflation risk from having a lower stock allocation, which is mitigated by having more stock.

The idea of the "bond tent" is to mitigate both of these risks: As you get close to retirement, shift to a heavier bond/cash position - then slowly unwind it in your early years of retirement by shifting back to a heavier stock allocation to mitigate the inflation risk of a long retirement.

[chasingthegoodlife]

Just a quick note to say I just used this and found it really useful to illustrate trade offs with my SO.

Thanks for your time in making it.