Reverse face-punch

[spokey doke]

I think we need a different kind of face-punch for those of us who just won't believe the math...or act in ways consistent with the math.

I have mostly been using Fidelitiy's retirement tools over the past few years, which say I'm on track to retire in 4 years, even in an underperforming market.  It gets much closer if I dial back the time-frame, but it stills says we'd stand a decent chance of success retiring next year.

For fun I went back to cfiresim and plugged in the numbers, being very accurate with our assets (and not including the paid off house in the portfolio), overestimated spending and likely life-span, underestimated pension and SS...retiring next spring.  The success rate is 100% without ever getting close to zero.

I may do it, but likely won't for another year or so...

Punch me (?!)

[Travis]

Post these conflicting reports as a case study if you want a second opinion. Sounds like a great problem to be having!

We face punch people around here who can't understand 2-3= -1, but I can't really fault you for being hesitant about pulling the FIRE trigger.  It's a very personal and risky decision that can't be decided on cold numbers alone.  If you overestimated your FIRE requirement by a couple $million and you could have done it 5 years ago then I might be willing to bop you on the back of the head, but other than that there's nothing wrong with OMY if that makes you feel better.

[Rezdent]

Sweet.
I'm not likely to punch you, but I'd possibly PINCH you.
Or grab you gently by the shoulders and shake you...Hey, spokey doke, wake up!  Look, the door is OPEN.

[okits]

Yeah, I'm with the others, no face punch.  Maybe a pointed look with raised eyebrows.

Congrats on a FIREable stash.  Hopefully OMY will get you to the psychological and emotional place needed to make the leap.

[arebelspy]

Yes, you are one of many here who seem very (overly?) conservative. :)

http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/is-it-just-me-or-are-people-here-*overly*-cautious-about-fireing/

(Ignore the sidetrack the thread gets onto about the ACA, it gets back on track.)