I find the idea of cutting medicare or social security, without making any changes to our payroll taxes which are supposed to pay for them completely absurd. I think independents will feel the same. Trumps base probably will turn a blind eye. Because they will continue to get other things they want.
While I'm certainly not arguing for medicaid/care or social security cuts, it is worth noting that under currently law we're going to be spending more on those programs each year than the payroll taxes which are supposed to pay for them bring in each year.
Last year the social security payroll tax (plus income taxes charged on benefits) brought in $869 billion, but $910 billion was paid out. Which is a small gap, but one that keeps getting bigger every year.*
Last year medicare payroll tax (plus beneficiary premiums and medicare taxes on social security) brought in
$280 $366 billion and $679 billion was paid out in medicare benefits.**
Which is a long winded way of saying that it seems reasonable to me that either payroll taxes could be raised without raising benefits, or that if benefits were reduced, it wouldn't necessarily be reasonable (or responsible) to also cut payroll taxes.
*Right now that gap is covered by interest on treasury bonds purchased by social security years ago when the program is running a surplus, but the gap is projected to exceed this interest income in 2021, and the bonds themselves are projected to all have been sold to cover annual payments by 2034.
**Now to be fair, medicare payroll taxes were only designed to cover medicare part A (hospitals but not doctor's visits), and they do a good job of covering the spending on that alone. Medicare parts B and D (doctor's visits and prescription drugs approximately) don't have any dedicated revenue stream and end up being paid out of the general fund (essentially income tax revenue) every year.
Source for all numbers:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/