Author Topic: Redfin and ClimateCheck  (Read 3552 times)

uniwelder

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Redfin and ClimateCheck
« on: August 05, 2021, 07:19:02 AM »
I just heard yesterday that Redfin will be including a ClimateCheck rating with their listings.  I tried checking the Refin website today, but don't see anything (though I did notice a FloodFactor score) so not sure when it will be active.  Supposedly ClimateCheck gives a 1-100 rating on how climate change will affect your home over a 30 year timespan.  Going to the ClimateCheck website directly, you're able to type in any address and see how its predicted to fare based on heat, fire, storm, drought, and flood.  Has anyone else heard about this or used it?  Article is here--- https://gizmodo.com/redfin-will-now-tell-you-how-at-risk-your-dream-home-is-1847421501

The results are really wonky and I don't see any value in the computed numbers.  The following are some examples----

I live in Appalachian Virginia, generally regarded as a very safe place related to climate change, and my score is something like a 36-41, depending on whether I use my actual address or the zip code.  My actual address got 5 points higher (more risk) than the area, not because they determined it had more fire or flood potential (very localized), but because heat risk was calculated 1 point higher, which has me scratching my head.  Being on the north side of slope and in a valley, my house is actually a bit cooler than the surrounding area, but how does their faulty geographic data give me a 5 point overall increase based on 1 point of a particular factor?

The more bewildering scores come from comparisons of extreme areas of the US. 

Miami gets an overall score of 59, even though the heat and flood risk scores were at 100, and its generally accepted that parts of Miami won't exist in 30 years.  More specifically, Miami Beach gets an overall score of 55, with a flood risk score of 79.  How does this make any sense????

Las Vegas gets an overall score of 32 (low risk), though the drought score was 100, and heat risk somehow was only 50.  Something is being severely overlooked here. 

What the heck?  I would have thought a company like Redfin would have vetted a service like this a bit better before including it with their listings.  Hopefully its me that doesn't understand something about their methodology or climate change, and its not an entire company thats is in the dark.  Does anyone know anything about this?  If it could be trusted, it would be a great tool for home buyers.

wageslave23

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2021, 08:09:56 AM »
The premise is stupid anyway.  In 30 years from now, it might be 2-3 degrees warmer in Vegas.  Guess what?  If you don't like 103 degree heat, you probably don't like the 100 degree heat there now.  Same thing with flooding and hurricanes.  After 30 years, a spot that might have averaged 2-3 tropical storms per year would now average 3-4.  If you are worried about tropical storms in the future, don't move to a place that has them now.  Climate change happens over decades.  Most people live in the same house for 10-15 years.  If after 10 years, you start not liking the climate trend, then sell your house.  Its not like a place is going to average 100 degree weather in June and then in 5 years from now average 120 degrees and you can't find a market for your house.

Fire2025

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2021, 08:20:01 AM »
This seemed fun, so I did my area, and found some interesting results.

My address Got:
Overall risk: 23
Drought risk: 86
Storm risk: 18
Heat risk: 7
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 1

My zip Code Got:  Inglewood CA
Overall risk: 37
Drought risk: 86
Storm risk: 18
Heat risk: 7
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 72
This all seemed normal.  I'm up on a hill so it made sense that I would have a lower flood risk in comparison to the rest of Inglewood.

Los Angeles CA - for comparison as the most middle section of the greater LA metro area
Overall risk: 25
Drought risk: 82
Storm risk: 21
Heat risk: 18
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 1

Venice Beach, CA - for comparison as a coastal city
Overall risk: 25
Drought risk: 86
Storm risk: 19
Heat risk: 9
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 35 - This is weird, Venice is right on the ocean and has a flood risk of 35 but Inglewood, which is 2ish miles inland, has a flood risk of 72.  Maybe they assume the super rich of Venice won't allow their homes to be flooded.

FloodFactor shows twice as many properties at flood risk in Venice as Inglewood and has a much greater increase of risk for Venice than Inglewood.  So does ClimateCheck included median home price in their calculations for "risk"???

bacchi

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2021, 08:44:52 AM »
If after 10 years, you start not liking the climate trend, then sell your house.  Its not like a place is going to average 100 degree weather in June and then in 5 years from now average 120 degrees and you can't find a market for your house.

It sounds like the redfin algo needs some work.

We can all move but isn't the point, at a realty site, that the home value will decrease? If you're living in Napa for the wine lifestyle, and the grape season is more volatile, that affects the housing price (because others presumably move there for the same reason). If your Miami Beach condo is seeing an extra hurricane each year, and it's predicted to increase, that affects the value.

Most people in the US increase their net worth through their home. If they buy at $300k and sell, 10 years later, at $250k, that's no bueno.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2021, 09:58:12 AM »
This all seemed normal.  I'm up on a hill so it made sense that I would have a lower flood risk in comparison to the rest of Inglewood.

Something else to consider - if a house is on a hill, but a road to it is often submerged (or a nearby business district is often flooded, or other homes), the value will likely go down, too.

Not talking about your house, of course - just that there are a lot of considerations, and the models will need a ton of adjustments.

bacchi

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2021, 10:19:06 AM »
The heat score in the algorithm is basing it on the current temperatures. For example, for a Colorado town on the western slope, anything above ~85 is considered excessive. In Tucson, anything above 107 is considered excessive.

Shouldn't it be set at a more universal human comfort level? Sure, humans can live where it's 120 for most of the year but it's far more comfortable -- and safe -- to live where it's 90, even if there are more 90 degree days in 2050.

former player

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2021, 10:30:39 AM »
This seemed fun, so I did my area, and found some interesting results.

My address Got:
Overall risk: 23
Drought risk: 86
Storm risk: 18
Heat risk: 7
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 1

My zip Code Got:  Inglewood CA
Overall risk: 37
Drought risk: 86
Storm risk: 18
Heat risk: 7
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 72
This all seemed normal.  I'm up on a hill so it made sense that I would have a lower flood risk in comparison to the rest of Inglewood.

Los Angeles CA - for comparison as the most middle section of the greater LA metro area
Overall risk: 25
Drought risk: 82
Storm risk: 21
Heat risk: 18
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 1

Venice Beach, CA - for comparison as a coastal city
Overall risk: 25
Drought risk: 86
Storm risk: 19
Heat risk: 9
Fire risk: 1
Flood risk: 35 - This is weird, Venice is right on the ocean and has a flood risk of 35 but Inglewood, which is 2ish miles inland, has a flood risk of 72.  Maybe they assume the super rich of Venice won't allow their homes to be flooded.

FloodFactor shows twice as many properties at flood risk in Venice as Inglewood and has a much greater increase of risk for Venice than Inglewood.  So does ClimateCheck included median home price in their calculations for "risk"???
There are different types of flooding - river, sea and groundwater/drains.  So it's entirely possible that part of an inland area with the sort of geography that can collect water faster than it drains away has a higher flood risk than a coastal area.

Or the information is wrong, of course.

I think bacchi is right about values: property is a buy and hold proposition and in 10 or 20 years there will be properties in every country on earth that have either become uninhabitable or undesirable for climate change reasons.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2021, 10:33:07 AM by former player »

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2021, 06:23:34 PM »
The heat score in the algorithm is basing it on the current temperatures. For example, for a Colorado town on the western slope, anything above ~85 is considered excessive. In Tucson, anything above 107 is considered excessive.

Shouldn't it be set at a more universal human comfort level? Sure, humans can live where it's 120 for most of the year but it's far more comfortable -- and safe -- to live where it's 90, even if there are more 90 degree days in 2050.

Right.  I'm looking at the details a bit more now.  Storm risk in my area gets an 81 even though it isn't projected to get severe weather, while Miami gets a 62.  Its relative to what currently happens in that location.  If you live in utopia, it seems any deviation from that perfection would result in a high score.

Also, the overall score seems to be a weighted average of all five criteria, which doesn't make sense.  If the area will be underwater, but the other four categories are unchanged, it seems the overall score will end up at 20.  For example, the Miami Beach score of 59---  (100+100+62+31+1)/5 = 59 even though the land won't exist 30 years from now.

Being cynical, I believe the scoring is intentionally biased.  The people at ClimateCheck must know how flawed and misleading their algorithm is, but if half of the homes for sale end up with a score of 100, would an online real estate company want to advertise those numbers? 

edited to correct a mistake. and then edited again to correct my correction.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 07:41:43 AM by uniwelder »

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2021, 09:21:15 PM »
I sent an email to the company and actually received a very fast response.  They have been considering getting rid of the overall score or making some modification as some people are only focused on one metric or another.  I replied with some suggestions--- I'll update if I hear back again with anything else constructive.

chemistk

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2021, 06:50:34 AM »
Took a look at this yesterday, and realized that it's kind of a useless tool. It's designed in such a way that, from at least what I could tell, every area that could be worth living in will have at least one category that's substantially high. My address scored a 36 overall, with the biggest contributor being storms. Other areas are high drought, flood, etc. risk.

Anyone who's going to look at the tool in a serious manner (and really, that's very few people) isn't going to choose where to live based on whether it has a higher likelihood for drought, or for storms, or for floods. I mean, some people may, but I think it's already implied that the southwest will have water issues and coastal areas will flood.

Honestly I think the "storms" category is pretty BS to include among the rest of them. Since every area has some category that's high, inevitably you're choosing between drought or storms, fire or floods, etc. That's just not a realistic way to assess an area's stability as a long term place to live.

former player

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2021, 07:06:42 AM »
Took a look at this yesterday, and realized that it's kind of a useless tool. It's designed in such a way that, from at least what I could tell, every area that could be worth living in will have at least one category that's substantially high. My address scored a 36 overall, with the biggest contributor being storms. Other areas are high drought, flood, etc. risk.

Anyone who's going to look at the tool in a serious manner (and really, that's very few people) isn't going to choose where to live based on whether it has a higher likelihood for drought, or for storms, or for floods. I mean, some people may, but I think it's already implied that the southwest will have water issues and coastal areas will flood.

Honestly I think the "storms" category is pretty BS to include among the rest of them. Since every area has some category that's high, inevitably you're choosing between drought or storms, fire or floods, etc. That's just not a realistic way to assess an area's stability as a long term place to live.
Isn't that a USA problem in any case, that almost everywhere is at risk of serious storms in a way that other parts of the world haven't had?  The issue for climate change is how much worse/more frequent, and therefore more damaging and less survivable, they will become.

If the tool says that everywhere is at risk that doesn't mean the tool has to be wrong, it could just be that everywhere really is at risk.  Pick your poison, I guess.

DadJokes

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2021, 07:15:29 AM »
Overall for the zip code was 36/100 with storm risk being the highest at 77/100. Oddly enough, flood risk was 1/100, even though there has been significant flooding in the area twice since I've lived here (once in 2010 and slightly less severe in 2020). My actual address didn't change any numbers by more than 1.

It seems like a pretty useless tool.

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2021, 07:30:21 AM »
Took a look at this yesterday, and realized that it's kind of a useless tool. It's designed in such a way that, from at least what I could tell, every area that could be worth living in will have at least one category that's substantially high. My address scored a 36 overall, with the biggest contributor being storms. Other areas are high drought, flood, etc. risk.
...........
Honestly I think the "storms" category is pretty BS to include among the rest of them. Since every area has some category that's high, inevitably you're choosing between drought or storms, fire or floods, etc. That's just not a realistic way to assess an area's stability as a long term place to live.

Yes, I agree its pretty useless as currently scored and rated for risk.  However, since they already have the data nicely compiled and analyzed, it shouldn't be difficult for them to reorganize it better.  As @bacchi stated, its based on completely relative terms, rather than absolute.  Changing the scale to absolute could yield a useful score that people might pay attention to.

The storms category, among the rest, doesn't reflect actual risk in their algorithm.  Instead, its relative future change to the current local climate.  Storm risk is based entirely on the 8 worst average rainfalls per year, and how many days will exceed that in the future.  If you already live someplace prone to storms, you'll end up with a low risk score, whereas someplace that receives consistent weather will likely be predicted to be high risk.  Thats what happened to me.

Anyone who's going to look at the tool in a serious manner (and really, that's very few people) isn't going to choose where to live based on whether it has a higher likelihood for drought, or for storms, or for floods. I mean, some people may, but I think it's already implied that the southwest will have water issues and coastal areas will flood.

This exactly the issue this company and Redfin are trying to address.  People don't seem to care about future climate change when buying a home, hence buying houses in stupid places like along the coast or floodplains, in dry forests, in the desert, etc.  If there was some red flag being waved at them, it might help a little to persuade them to rethink their housing choices.  Ultimately, I think a tool like this will be most useful for mortgage companies that will stop providing loans on risky investments, as well as insurance companies and government subsidized flood insurance.  Maybe not this exact tool, but something like it.


uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2021, 07:35:34 AM »
If the tool says that everywhere is at risk that doesn't mean the tool has to be wrong, it could just be that everywhere really is at risk.  Pick your poison, I guess.

Unfortunately, the tool is wrong.  Places currently at high risk that will remain at high risk are given a favorable low score according the methodology.  Places currently at low risk that will become moderate risk will be given an unfavorable high score. 

former player

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2021, 08:22:36 AM »
If the tool says that everywhere is at risk that doesn't mean the tool has to be wrong, it could just be that everywhere really is at risk.  Pick your poison, I guess.

Unfortunately, the tool is wrong.  Places currently at high risk that will remain at high risk are given a favorable low score according the methodology.  Places currently at low risk that will become moderate risk will be given an unfavorable high score.
So it's looking at change from a current baseline rather than an absolute. That could make sense, working from the premise that the existing housing stock is already built to deal with current conditions.  It fails if 1) current housing stock is not built to deal with current conditions and 2) the threat is absolute ("will be underwater in 20 years") rather than relative ("greater risk of storms").

chemistk

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2021, 08:57:33 AM »
Took a look at this yesterday, and realized that it's kind of a useless tool. It's designed in such a way that, from at least what I could tell, every area that could be worth living in will have at least one category that's substantially high. My address scored a 36 overall, with the biggest contributor being storms. Other areas are high drought, flood, etc. risk.
...........
Honestly I think the "storms" category is pretty BS to include among the rest of them. Since every area has some category that's high, inevitably you're choosing between drought or storms, fire or floods, etc. That's just not a realistic way to assess an area's stability as a long term place to live.

Yes, I agree its pretty useless as currently scored and rated for risk.  However, since they already have the data nicely compiled and analyzed, it shouldn't be difficult for them to reorganize it better.  As @bacchi stated, its based on completely relative terms, rather than absolute.  Changing the scale to absolute could yield a useful score that people might pay attention to.

The storms category, among the rest, doesn't reflect actual risk in their algorithm.  Instead, its relative future change to the current local climate.  Storm risk is based entirely on the 8 worst average rainfalls per year, and how many days will exceed that in the future.  If you already live someplace prone to storms, you'll end up with a low risk score, whereas someplace that receives consistent weather will likely be predicted to be high risk.  Thats what happened to me.

Anyone who's going to look at the tool in a serious manner (and really, that's very few people) isn't going to choose where to live based on whether it has a higher likelihood for drought, or for storms, or for floods. I mean, some people may, but I think it's already implied that the southwest will have water issues and coastal areas will flood.

This exactly the issue this company and Redfin are trying to address.  People don't seem to care about future climate change when buying a home, hence buying houses in stupid places like along the coast or floodplains, in dry forests, in the desert, etc.  If there was some red flag being waved at them, it might help a little to persuade them to rethink their housing choices.  Ultimately, I think a tool like this will be most useful for mortgage companies that will stop providing loans on risky investments, as well as insurance companies and government subsidized flood insurance.  Maybe not this exact tool, but something like it.

Your second point would be far, far, far more impactful than something that looks exactly like the walkability score that these sites already employ - if lenders, upon review of your location, decide to give a buyer a higher rate or choose to not lend to them at all that's going to cause much more of a shift than looking at this as a potential buyer. Same with insurance companies  (which is much more likely than lenders to move first I'd imagine) - if your premium reflects future probability of all these factors (and not just fire or flood), it might cause folks to rethink their purchase.




Screw it, who am I kidding? That's not going to happen, people are going to just continue buying flood, fire, and drought prone homes and then complain that it's "not may fault" when the place floods or burns down and they're left holding the bill, which is just going to be passed to the rest of us through our tax dollars and collectively higher insurance premiums.

bacchi

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2021, 09:27:30 AM »
Your second point would be far, far, far more impactful than something that looks exactly like the walkability score that these sites already employ - if lenders, upon review of your location, decide to give a buyer a higher rate or choose to not lend to them at all that's going to cause much more of a shift than looking at this as a potential buyer. Same with insurance companies  (which is much more likely than lenders to move first I'd imagine) - if your premium reflects future probability of all these factors (and not just fire or flood), it might cause folks to rethink their purchase.




Screw it, who am I kidding? That's not going to happen, people are going to just continue buying flood, fire, and drought prone homes and then complain that it's "not may fault" when the place floods or burns down and they're left holding the bill, which is just going to be passed to the rest of us through our tax dollars and collectively higher insurance premiums.

There's some nibbling at the edges. Someone on this very forum was dismayed to find that they couldn't get insurance on their San Diego home because it was too close to a greenbelt/forest/reserve/something-like-that.

I would hope that insurance rates in Paradise, CA, are now astronomical. The For-Sale map is telling -- 30 homes vs 200 lots. Surprisingly, a house that survived the fire sold for $445k in 2015 and is now selling for $675k. ??

trollwithamustache

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2021, 09:58:44 AM »
Under the hood, most of this stuff gets done by zip code... which makes a lot of sense for mail.

A long time ago, my parents moved to hurricane country. you could drive around a neighborhood and get a sense of who was higher on the hill and who was lower/not up the hill. This correspond really well to who got flooded despite the whole town being in one zip code. When Katrina clobbered them, all of the older homes built in the areas people knew were out of the flood planes and not in the windy top of the hill were fine. (trees broke windows ect, but no floods, no houses completely trashed ect)
 


Plina

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2021, 02:34:25 PM »
I think people will in certain places be forced to care. When insurance companies refuse to insure properties due to flood risk banks will not loan money to buy them. That is already happening today and there are a lot of talk on how to mitigate especially flood risks from large amounts of rain or flooding which is the main problem here. I have looked at some properties by a river but I am not buying anything with a flood risk due to the hassle associated with a flooded house. I don’t believe the houses will hold their value in the future.

partgypsy

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2021, 05:18:31 PM »
If the tool says that everywhere is at risk that doesn't mean the tool has to be wrong, it could just be that everywhere really is at risk.  Pick your poison, I guess.

Unfortunately, the tool is wrong.  Places currently at high risk that will remain at high risk are given a favorable low score according the methodology.  Places currently at low risk that will become moderate risk will be given an unfavorable high score.
So it's looking at change from a current baseline rather than an absolute. That could make sense, working from the premise that the existing housing stock is already built to deal with current conditions.  It fails if 1) current housing stock is not built to deal with current conditions and 2) the threat is absolute ("will be underwater in 20 years") rather than relative ("greater risk of storms").

yes this sounds like a meaningless measure, if it is only measuring relative change from an unknown baseline and then averaging across very disparate types of risk. No clue what that average score even means.
We all know Las Vegas is going to run out of water. We know that parts of miami as well as Florida will be underwater. What I've done is look at the maps at project climate changes for my area. It's supposed to get rainier, and warmer. So for myself I would watch out about buying places with higher flood risk. And mature trees that shade the house are good.

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2021, 07:59:47 PM »
If the tool says that everywhere is at risk that doesn't mean the tool has to be wrong, it could just be that everywhere really is at risk.  Pick your poison, I guess.

Unfortunately, the tool is wrong.  Places currently at high risk that will remain at high risk are given a favorable low score according the methodology.  Places currently at low risk that will become moderate risk will be given an unfavorable high score.
So it's looking at change from a current baseline rather than an absolute. That could make sense, working from the premise that the existing housing stock is already built to deal with current conditions.  It fails if 1) current housing stock is not built to deal with current conditions and 2) the threat is absolute ("will be underwater in 20 years") rather than relative ("greater risk of storms").

yes this sounds like a meaningless measure, if it is only measuring relative change from an unknown baseline and then averaging across very disparate types of risk. No clue what that average score even means.
We all know Las Vegas is going to run out of water. We know that parts of miami as well as Florida will be underwater. What I've done is look at the maps at project climate changes for my area. It's supposed to get rainier, and warmer. So for myself I would watch out about buying places with higher flood risk. And mature trees that shade the house are good.

The methodology page has details, with most data coming from 1981-2005 and references to the data sources.  How they quantify individual risk scores is unknown.  The overall score is literally the average of the individual scores, which makes no sense.  When Las Vegas runs out of water, it doesn't matter whether the other metrics are fine.  This is exactly how their model fails. Drought risk for Las Vegas gets a 100, but everything else is relatively low--- no floods, no storms, no fires.  Therefore the overall score for Las Vegas is 32 (low risk).  Similar failure for Miami risk score.

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2021, 08:20:46 PM »
The premise is stupid anyway.  In 30 years from now, it might be 2-3 degrees warmer in Vegas.  Guess what?  If you don't like 103 degree heat, you probably don't like the 100 degree heat there now. 
That's not quite how it works though, the probability of events in the tail become much more likely. So yes, if the average is 100 and becomes 103, that might not make a difference. But if the probability of a 120 degree day goes from 0.0001 to 0.001, that means you're now likely to experience a few of these whereas before you were not.

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2021, 04:57:30 AM »
Update----

Someone else's MMM posting got me back here to check on ClimateCheck's site.  They have updated their scoring method.  Now, instead of taking the average of each individual risk category, they give a snapshot of the min and max of the range, with visual emphasis on the maximum.  Miami and Las Vegas finally get scores of 100, rather than the 59 and 32 they enjoyed previously.

Unfortunately, my relatively safe location now has its score upped to an 81 because of storm risk.  Certainly, I'm more likely to experience more storms (mountainous Appalachian Virginia) as the weather everywhere is expected to become more extreme, but not in absolute terms of risk.

chemistk

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2021, 05:53:01 AM »
I still think it's a misleading representation of risk. Usually when a "score" is assigned to...well...anything, most folks' natural inclination is to look for the place/thing in that category that has the best score. So I was curious - generally speaking, Montana and Minnesota represent the lowest collective risk - both have many regions which don't score more than about 50 in any of the categories.

Or in other words, it's borderline useless. If anything, the only effect I see from these scores is making people who are already concerned about the environment feel uncomfortable about any locale and its potential climate change risks. It doesn't convey any new or actionable information to a prospective homebuyer. It's not like I'm going to pick a home region of the country to live in that may have greater exposure to wildfires just because I hate heavy storms.

No matter what way you look at it, the overwhelming majority of zip codes have one category that's much higher than the rest. It was mentioned upthread that a better way of getting homebuyers to understand risk is to have insurance companies assess and accurately price in future climate risk based on your zip code. Make that part of your Zillow search - "chemistk, this property in coastal Florida may have associated insurance costs that are much higher than the rest of the country due to future risk of flooding and severe storms".

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2021, 06:55:41 AM »
I still think it's a misleading representation of risk...

...It was mentioned upthread that a better way of getting homebuyers to understand risk is to have insurance companies assess and accurately price in future climate risk based on your zip code. Make that part of your Zillow search - "chemistk, this property in coastal Florida may have associated insurance costs that are much higher than the rest of the country due to future risk of flooding and severe storms".

Yes, I should have mentioned its still pretty useless, but its at least an improvement, maybe?

Yes, there needs to be some financial or regulatory disincentive to prevent people from making these poor choices that taxpayers then take future responsibility for.

chemistk

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #25 on: September 21, 2021, 07:10:57 AM »
I mean, really all it does is promote (in theory) stratification of the population based on tolerance for various climate effects. In practice such stratification would be negligible, at best. Definitely not the intended consequence of the score.


meadow lark

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #26 on: September 21, 2021, 09:09:22 AM »
Yes, there needs to be some financial or regulatory disincentive to prevent people from making these poor choices that taxpayers then take future responsibility for.

I’m in this situation.  For many good reasons I am very motivated to continue living in an area that is being destroyed by climate change.  This attitude that a lot of people are expressing, not just uniwelder, misses the point that the earth has changed.  It used to be we would get annoyed by people who would perch their houses on the edge of the water for the view.  Or up on the hill, etc.  There were lots of other, less dangerous options in the area.  Because of climate change there are no safe areas in this part of the country now.  This area (southern Louisiana) is all about chemical plants and oil refineries.  Pollution and cancer are out of control.  Be grateful there are suckers out there that are willing to live here.  You want them in your backyard?  My house flooded this year.  (My house is not in a flood zone).   It was a lot more traumatic for me than the American taxpayer.

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2021, 09:23:06 AM »
Yes, there needs to be some financial or regulatory disincentive to prevent people from making these poor choices that taxpayers then take future responsibility for.

I’m in this situation.  For many good reasons I am very motivated to continue living in an area that is being destroyed by climate change.  This attitude that a lot of people are expressing, not just uniwelder, misses the point that the earth has changed.  It used to be we would get annoyed by people who would perch their houses on the edge of the water for the view.  Or up on the hill, etc.  There were lots of other, less dangerous options in the area.  Because of climate change there are no safe areas in this part of the country now.  This area (southern Louisiana) is all about chemical plants and oil refineries.  Pollution and cancer are out of control.  Be grateful there are suckers out there that are willing to live here.  You want them in your backyard?  My house flooded this year.  (My house is not in a flood zone).   It was a lot more traumatic for me than the American taxpayer.

Sorry, I've read your post a few times, but don't understand what you're getting at.  It seems like you're just venting, as you recognize reality, but are frustrated.  Are you trying to say the infrastucture (people's homes, chemical and oil industry) is already established, so no use trying to relocate?  The rest of US should continue to subsidize that which is unsustainable?

Its a difficult choice certainly, but people can't keep living in areas that will be underwater 30 years from now, unless they intend to have a houseboat instead.  You can move sooner rather than later, but eventually will need to relocate.

Arbitrage

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #28 on: September 21, 2021, 09:53:05 AM »
I definitely don't really understand (or agree with) their "Heat Risk" metric.  It seems to start from the baseline that all places currently have the same amount of heat risk, and the metric exists only to quantify how much worse it will get from today - i.e. how often will the area experience hot days compared to the current average temperature. 

None of the other metrics are constructed in that manner; they're more absolute.  They're not saying that all of the areas that currently get wildfires are fine as long as they're not predicted to get MORE wildfires in the future, but that's essentially how the heat risk is tallied up.

Because of that, somehow my current area (hot day defined as 79 F) has significantly more risk from extreme heat than our friends' place in the desert hills of SoCal (hot day 93 F) and is almost as risky as Phoenix, AZ (hot day 110 F), since you're only dinged for future days over that 'hot day' baseline. 

I understand that there are some infrastructure considerations for tolerance to hot days, but this methodology doesn't pass the smell test.  You need to interject some absolutes, especially when considering something easily measurable like temperature (or even heat index).

chemistk

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #29 on: September 21, 2021, 09:53:29 AM »
Yes, there needs to be some financial or regulatory disincentive to prevent people from making these poor choices that taxpayers then take future responsibility for.

I’m in this situation.  For many good reasons I am very motivated to continue living in an area that is being destroyed by climate change.  This attitude that a lot of people are expressing, not just uniwelder, misses the point that the earth has changed.  It used to be we would get annoyed by people who would perch their houses on the edge of the water for the view.  Or up on the hill, etc.  There were lots of other, less dangerous options in the area.  Because of climate change there are no safe areas in this part of the country now.  This area (southern Louisiana) is all about chemical plants and oil refineries.  Pollution and cancer are out of control.  Be grateful there are suckers out there that are willing to live here.  You want them in your backyard?  My house flooded this year.  (My house is not in a flood zone).   It was a lot more traumatic for me than the American taxpayer.

Sorry, I've read your post a few times, but don't understand what you're getting at.  It seems like you're just venting, as you recognize reality, but are frustrated.  Are you trying to say the infrastucture (people's homes, chemical and oil industry) is already established, so no use trying to relocate?  The rest of US should continue to subsidize that which is unsustainable?

Its a difficult choice certainly, but people can't keep living in areas that will be underwater 30 years from now, unless they intend to have a houseboat instead.  You can move sooner rather than later, but eventually will need to relocate.

I agree - moreover, I think the knee-jerk response to the idea that certain regions are uninhabitable is to assume that folks are going to be asked or even coerced to uproot themselves in the immediate future, which is just categorically false.

It will be a slow migration away from areas that are turning uninhabitable, and that is still going to suck. New investment in affected or projected-affected areas will all but cease. People will stop migrating toward those areas and as the population ages and moves away, the infrastructure in those areas will slowly fall apart. But we as a country could do well to not subsidize people to continue to live for decades in an area that's just not great for communities of people to be.

It's incredibly callous of me to say, but it needs to be said - history and tradition be damned, there is a threshold of support that after a certain point we as a collective society should stop pouring money into recovering and rebuilding areas that may not be inhabitable with our current technology for many years.

I am not suggesting eminent domain, but instead to incentivize industry and residents to move away from areas that are not great places to be (be it floods, fires, or drought). I'd much rather start to help people with the difficult but preferential process of transplanting them to hardier areas (even if it means moving 100 miles away) than to keep pouring billions into infrastructure that, one day, will be underwater, ash, or have no reasonable means of water supply.

And if folks or businesses want to stay put, then they should understand that they will have to bear greater responsibility for their remaining where they live.

Alternatively, I would hope that we can innovate adaptable infrastructure so that we can continue to preserve regions of the country that are going to be "lost" to climate change.

Meadow lark - I'm sorry that this is happening to the area you call home. I apologize if this comment is cold, callous, or if I've failed to understand what it's like to live in such an area. I don't mean to suggest that you're being unreasonable, but rather that there are millions of people across the country whose communities may soon cease to exist in the form that we're currently familiar with.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #30 on: September 21, 2021, 10:05:48 AM »
Unfortunately, my relatively safe location now has its score upped to an 81 because of storm risk.  Certainly, I'm more likely to experience more storms (mountainous Appalachian Virginia) as the weather everywhere is expected to become more extreme, but not in absolute terms of risk.

The Seattle area also has an extremely high score for storm risk. My house got a 79 in that category. But I look at the graph in the full report to see that they predict it will rain about 15% more in 40 years. That seems not all that bad.

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #31 on: September 21, 2021, 10:12:11 AM »
I definitely don't really understand (or agree with) their "Heat Risk" metric.  It seems to start from the baseline that all places currently have the same amount of heat risk, and the metric exists only to quantify how much worse it will get from today - i.e. how often will the area experience hot days compared to the current average temperature. 

None of the other metrics are constructed in that manner; they're more absolute.  They're not saying that all of the areas that currently get wildfires are fine as long as they're not predicted to get MORE wildfires in the future, but that's essentially how the heat risk is tallied up.

Because of that, somehow my current area (hot day defined as 79 F) has significantly more risk from extreme heat than our friends' place in the desert hills of SoCal (hot day 93 F) and is almost as risky as Phoenix, AZ (hot day 110 F), since you're only dinged for future days over that 'hot day' baseline. 

I understand that there are some infrastructure considerations for tolerance to hot days, but this methodology doesn't pass the smell test.  You need to interject some absolutes, especially when considering something easily measurable like temperature (or even heat index).

I think the rest of the categories may also be relative.  For storm risk, its based on the current worst 8 rainy days of a typical year, vs the number of days in the future with more rainfall than the typical worst 8.  Its more difficult to interpret how they're scoring the rest.

roomtempmayo

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #32 on: September 21, 2021, 10:17:25 AM »

It's incredibly callous of me to say, but it needs to be said - history and tradition be damned, there is a threshold of support that after a certain point we as a collective society should stop pouring money into recovering and rebuilding areas that may not be inhabitable with our current technology for many years.


I could see an argument made for using a carbon tax to buy out construction that pre-dates climate change knowledge.

However, it does seem critical that both federal and state governments credibly commit, probably by statute, to extending zero aid to new construction in risky areas going forward.

To the question of the actual measure, this seems like a case where expressing risk as an integer obscures more than it illuminates.  Is the difference between a 30 and a 60 actionable information for a home buyer?  I doubt it.

It seems like the task is to identify the worst properties and prominently signal the risk to buyers.  Marking the riskiest 1% of real estate with a floating dumpster fire emoji over the top of the listing might do the trick.

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #33 on: September 21, 2021, 10:33:58 AM »
Unfortunately, my relatively safe location now has its score upped to an 81 because of storm risk.  Certainly, I'm more likely to experience more storms (mountainous Appalachian Virginia) as the weather everywhere is expected to become more extreme, but not in absolute terms of risk.

The Seattle area also has an extremely high score for storm risk. My house got a 79 in that category. But I look at the graph in the full report to see that they predict it will rain about 15% more in 40 years. That seems not all that bad.

Where did you see the full report? Did you pay for one or is there some hidden menu selection that lets you see more comprehensive city wide information?

seattlecyclone

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #34 on: September 21, 2021, 11:54:02 AM »
Unfortunately, my relatively safe location now has its score upped to an 81 because of storm risk.  Certainly, I'm more likely to experience more storms (mountainous Appalachian Virginia) as the weather everywhere is expected to become more extreme, but not in absolute terms of risk.

The Seattle area also has an extremely high score for storm risk. My house got a 79 in that category. But I look at the graph in the full report to see that they predict it will rain about 15% more in 40 years. That seems not all that bad.

Where did you see the full report? Did you pay for one or is there some hidden menu selection that lets you see more comprehensive city wide information?

I went to the ClimateCheck site, typed in my address, and there was a spot to enter my email to get a free copy of the full report.

uniwelder

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #35 on: September 22, 2021, 06:07:08 AM »
Unfortunately, my relatively safe location now has its score upped to an 81 because of storm risk.  Certainly, I'm more likely to experience more storms (mountainous Appalachian Virginia) as the weather everywhere is expected to become more extreme, but not in absolute terms of risk.

The Seattle area also has an extremely high score for storm risk. My house got a 79 in that category. But I look at the graph in the full report to see that they predict it will rain about 15% more in 40 years. That seems not all that bad.

Where did you see the full report? Did you pay for one or is there some hidden menu selection that lets you see more comprehensive city wide information?

I went to the ClimateCheck site, typed in my address, and there was a spot to enter my email to get a free copy of the full report.

Wow, I hadn't seen that before.  Last time around, I thought they were charging money for the report, but maybe they're trying to get more feedback now.  I went ahead with it and got a good read through.

edited to add--- Their email with the report asks for feedback, so I filled out their survey with lots of constructive comments.  Their scoring system changed since last time I communicated with them, so I'd like to think it'll have an effect.  Hopefully others might do the same.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 07:01:28 AM by uniwelder »

Arbitrage

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #36 on: September 22, 2021, 09:21:15 AM »

I think the rest of the categories may also be relative.  For storm risk, its based on the current worst 8 rainy days of a typical year, vs the number of days in the future with more rainfall than the typical worst 8.  Its more difficult to interpret how they're scoring the rest.

They're not, or at least there is quite a bit of absolute measure in the metric, as far as I can tell.  For storm risk, the text does list the numbers based upon the 8 rainiest storms currently, but that's not what determines the actual risk number. 

As an example, here's a comparison of two cities:

Tallahassee, FL
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Tallahassee%2C%20Florida%2C%20United%20States

Elko, NV
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Elko%2C%20Nevada%2C%20United%20States

Both go from 8 up to 19 storms by their relatively determined baseline, but the storm risk is much higher in Tallahassee, as it should be. 

I do think there may be something in their formula that accounts for the current storm level, but it seems to be a small factor.

Compare that to the heat risk for:
Palm Springs, CA
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Palm%20Springs%2C%20California%2C%20United%20States

Bellingham, WA
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Bellingham%2C%20Washington%2098228%2C%20United%20States

According to the metric, 33 days over 80 F is more risky than 32 days over 111 F.  It's nonsensical.

aetheldrea

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #37 on: September 22, 2021, 11:09:46 PM »
Compare that to the heat risk for:
Palm Springs, CA
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Palm%20Springs%2C%20California%2C%20United%20States

Bellingham, WA
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Bellingham%2C%20Washington%2098228%2C%20United%20States

According to the metric, 33 days over 80 F is more risky than 32 days over 111 F.  It's nonsensical.
This kind of makes sense to me if you think about the risk number as how an area is likely to change from how it is now. So Palm Springs has miserable heat now and will get slightly worse with climate change, and Bellingham is very nice now but could get much hotter.

Radagast

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #38 on: September 22, 2021, 11:38:54 PM »
If the storm estimator is anywhere near correct, the entire American west is about to become lush and highly desirable, instead of mostly dry and sparsely populated. Palm Springs will go from 5.2" to 11.7" rain annually (13 storms at 0.9")! Which seems to conflict with the drought risk. Another possibility is that the storm calculator, and maybe every calculator, is deliberately exaggerating the likely effect to freak people out.

Yup, Las Vegas and Elko are going to get a lot more precipitation too. St George will double. I wonder if their Las Vegas drought calculator took into account all the extra water flowing into the Colorado Basin?
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 11:44:19 PM by Radagast »

Arbitrage

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Re: Redfin and ClimateCheck
« Reply #39 on: September 28, 2021, 12:58:35 PM »
Compare that to the heat risk for:
Palm Springs, CA
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Palm%20Springs%2C%20California%2C%20United%20States

Bellingham, WA
https://climatecheck.com/report?address=Bellingham%2C%20Washington%2098228%2C%20United%20States

According to the metric, 33 days over 80 F is more risky than 32 days over 111 F.  It's nonsensical.
This kind of makes sense to me if you think about the risk number as how an area is likely to change from how it is now. So Palm Springs has miserable heat now and will get slightly worse with climate change, and Bellingham is very nice now but could get much hotter.

I hear what you're saying, but disagree.  There are absolutes.  People die, and die quickly, in 111 degree heat.  80 degree heat means that you should be in shorts and a T shirt, and bring a water bottle when doing strenuous activity outdoors.