Author Topic: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years  (Read 6788 times)

prof61820

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Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« on: January 26, 2014, 10:34:35 AM »
Slate recently profiled this proposal to protect social security.  It seems like a reasonable way to protect the United State's safety net and make it through the boomer bubble of the next two decades.

http://www.salon.com/2014/01/10/americas_next_crisis_tens_of_millions_of_falling_into_poverty_partner/

From the article:  "Social Security is funded by a 15.3 percent tax on the first $117,000 of federal income, split between employers and employees (self-employed people pay all of that). That tax equates to 5 percent of the gross national product, according to the National Academy of Social Insurance’s Virginia Reno. Income above the $117,000 cap, and investment income isn’t taxed for Social Security.

There are slight variations in solutions proposed by various advocacy groups, but they all share basic elements. First, by gradually removing the income tax cap over 10 years, and increasing Social Security taxes by 1 percent for employees and employers over the 20 years—equal to an additional 50 cents a week annually—there will be no red ink for the next 75 years. These increases would mean that Social Security would take 6 percent of GDP, Reno reported. That increase in GDP is less than jumps in public education funding in the 1970s, she said."

What do you think?  Do you think the self employed would start to shift revenue in their business away from income and into capital gains if the income cap is lifted?

HayMaker

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2014, 12:27:18 PM »
It never made sense to me that income above a certain level would not be taxed for social security purposes.  I'm generally not a raise taxes kind of guy, but collecting more and adding some means testing looks like a fairly painless adjustment to make.

Undecided

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2014, 12:37:45 PM »
It never made sense to me that income above a certain level would not be taxed for social security purposes.  I'm generally not a raise taxes kind of guy, but collecting more and adding some means testing looks like a fairly painless adjustment to make.

I disagree. If it's supposed to be an internally-finded safety net that's serving a pension-like purpose, and the benefit is capped, I don't have any problem with the idea that the input metric (income) is capped, too. Now if it needs more money and the rate needs to be increased, I find that more attractive. Or de-couple it from being funded by a specific tax and just make it come out of general revenues, and raise taxes across the board as necessary.

Baylor3217

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2014, 02:12:18 PM »
It never made sense to me that income above a certain level would not be taxed for social security purposes.  I'm generally not a raise taxes kind of guy, but collecting more and adding some means testing looks like a fairly painless adjustment to make.

Do you think those that make over $117,000 would agree?

prof61820

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2014, 03:20:07 PM »
adding some means testing looks like a fairly painless adjustment to make.

I'm okay with raising the income threshold (and possibly offering a slightly higher payout in return) but I'm afraid  that means testing will likely lead to a further loss of political support (think Medicare) for the program.  The good news is that it seems that both a whole lot of unprepared Republicans and Democrats need SS income as part of their retirement portfolio so some "fix" may happen to shore up the system past 2033 and make it viable for Gen X and Gen Y.

prof61820

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2014, 03:36:03 PM »
Do you think those that make over $117,000 would agree?

This is a good question...I suppose it depends on how much you've saved, whether or not you have investment income  and how much you value the existense of a safety net. 

I've been curious lately about the macro economic benefits of paying enough SS benefits to seniors to keep them living in the United States (and spending here) instead of cashing in their 401(k)s, buying a house or condo in Mexico, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc. and living off their SS income abroad.  I suppose that Medicare may keep them local but enough seniors are already pursuing this retirement lifestyle so it can't be too much of a hassle...

Baylor3217

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2014, 04:35:05 PM »
Do you think those that make over $117,000 would agree?

This is a good question...I suppose it depends on how much you've saved, whether or not you have investment income  and how much you value the existense of a safety net. 

I've been curious lately about the macro economic benefits of paying enough SS benefits to seniors to keep them living in the United States (and spending here) instead of cashing in their 401(k)s, buying a house or condo in Mexico, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc. and living off their SS income abroad.  I suppose that Medicare may keep them local but enough seniors are already pursuing this retirement lifestyle so it can't be too much of a hassle...

It would be awesome to see our politicians cut back on the waste and grifting and cronyism (solyndra, no bid hburton, no bid foreign websites, etc etc) before coming back to us for more more more.

2527

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2014, 04:42:42 PM »
I think the day social security starts to be means tested is the day it starts to die.  It will be perceived as welfare. 

Undecided

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2014, 04:45:28 PM »
Do you think those that make over $117,000 would agree?

This is a good question...I suppose it depends on how much you've saved, whether or not you have investment income  and how much you value the existense of a safety net. 

I've been curious lately about the macro economic benefits of paying enough SS benefits to seniors to keep them living in the United States (and spending here) instead of cashing in their 401(k)s, buying a house or condo in Mexico, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc. and living off their SS income abroad.  I suppose that Medicare may keep them local but enough seniors are already pursuing this retirement lifestyle so it can't be too much of a hassle...

There are about 350,000 recipients of social security abroad, of about 60 million recipients. About 3/5ths of one percent. Some of those are probably relatively well off. Some of them are probably living in one or both spouses' native country. I'm not sure it's really a thing.

http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/chartbooks/fast_facts/2012/fast_facts12.html

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/whats-driving-americans-to-retire-abroad-money-or-lack-of-it/


SwordGuy

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2014, 05:08:18 PM »
It never made sense to me that income above a certain level would not be taxed for social security purposes.  I'm generally not a raise taxes kind of guy, but collecting more and adding some means testing looks like a fairly painless adjustment to make.

The tax was capped on income because the benefits were capped on income, too.  That seems fair to me.

2527

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2014, 05:38:31 PM »
The cap has not been updated for inflation.  That would be a good start.

Undecided

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2014, 06:13:06 PM »
The cap has not been updated for inflation.  That would be a good start.

It's adjusted up every year.

http://www.ssa.gov/planners/maxtax.htm

It's gone up from $87k to $117k since 2000.

But please don't let the facts interfere with the discussion on my account.

 

2527

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2014, 06:23:36 PM »
I stand corrected.  However, sarcasm noted.  I  think, however, that a larger percentage of wage earners are above the cap than than was the case in the past…maybe that is what I am remembering from something I read. 

prof61820

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2014, 06:57:43 PM »
may keep them local but enough seniors are already pursuing this retirement lifestyle so it can't be too much of a hassle...
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/whats-driving-americans-to-retire-abroad-money-or-lack-of-it/

Thanks for the link and research.  It looks like the trend is that the more adventurous baby boomers may expand the number of retired overseas Americans.  I suspect that more worldly Gen and Y will continue and expand this trend.  There are probably businesses (and opportunities) designed to facilitate an overseas retirement move.  Overseas retirement - and the flow of SS dollars overseas - may just be another consequence of globalization.

From the Wharton article: "The precise number of people retired overseas is hard to come by. About 350,000 American retirees receive Social Security benefits in countries other than the U.S., according to the Social Security Administration’s annual statistical supplement. The majority of those people live in Europe, Canada and Mexico. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this number will rise: As many as 3.3 million American baby boomers are planning to retire abroad, according to figures from Travel Market Report, the industry publication. Three years ago, the paid subscription base of International Living, a magazine for retirees who live overseas or plan to, was 39,000; today, it’s 80,000.

What’s driving them abroad? Money — or lack of it. Americans’ confidence in their ability to afford a comfortable retirement is at historically low levels, according to this year’s Retirement Confidence Survey, conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Only 14% of workers said they were “very confident” they would have enough money to live comfortably in retirement, according to the survey.

* * *

"The cost of living in most international retirement destinations is much less than the U.S."

* * *

"One of the most pressing financial concerns facing prospective retirees is whether they will have enough money to pay for medical and long-term care expenses. Health care costs have risen rapidly over the last decade and show no signs of abating. A 65-year-old couple retiring in 2012 is estimated to need $240,000 to cover out-of-pocket medical expenses — the costs not covered by Medicare — throughout retirement, according to the latest retiree health care costs estimate calculated by Fidelity Investments. This represents a 50% increase from 2002, when the estimate was $160,000.

Out-of-pocket medical costs are likely to continue to rise, says Olivia S. Mitchell, a Wharton professor who specializes in health/retirement analysis and policy. “Nobody knows how the U.S. will ultimately resolve its fiscal problems,” she says. “Medicare and Social Security are the biggest drain on the budget. I believe that more of the retiree health care cost burden will be borne by consumers in the form of higher co-pays and higher premiums in the future.”

SwordGuy

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2014, 07:00:17 PM »
Funny how the #1 reason for people not saving enough for retirement is never mentioned in these stories: the people simply didn't save enough and their current lifestyle is more affluent than they can afford.

Undecided

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2014, 07:16:16 PM »
I stand corrected.  However, sarcasm noted.  I  think, however, that a larger percentage of wage earners are above the cap than than was the case in the past…maybe that is what I am remembering from something I read.

I just read that too, in your post, but the data from SSA that I saw (which is now a bit dated), shows that rate being pretty stable around 6% from the early 1980s on. In the 70s it was three times that, and far higher before that. See chart 2 here: http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/policybriefs/pb2011-02.html

LalsConstant

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2014, 08:57:33 PM »
I will give that article massive props for accurately stating the actual SS tax rate.  It's pretty mind numbing to think how many extra years we have to work to pay for SS, and the trickery they use to make most people not realize how much they're actually paying.

Jamesqf

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2014, 09:28:59 PM »
I think, however, that a larger percentage of wage earners are above the cap than than was the case in the past…maybe that is what I am remembering from something I read.

Why would this matter?  Their income below the cap is what's taxed, and what they will receive benefits on.

About 350,000 American retirees receive Social Security benefits in countries other than the U.S., according to the Social Security Administration’s annual statistical supplement. The majority of those people live in Europe, Canada and Mexico.

Seems likely that many of those are immigrants, who've worked in the US but plan to return to their home country in retirement.

As to the basic problem, any real solution has to address the cause, which is the fact that people are living longer than SS planned for.  So increase the retirement age.

HayMaker

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2014, 09:30:50 PM »

Do you think those that make over $117,000 would agree?
Not sure.  When I was consulting I would hit the limit in August and have to admit I liked getting the extra $400 or so every couple of weeks for the rest of the year.  That being said, I wouldn't have really missed it if it wasn't capped.


dude

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2014, 09:33:30 AM »
It never made sense to me that income above a certain level would not be taxed for social security purposes.  I'm generally not a raise taxes kind of guy, but collecting more and adding some means testing looks like a fairly painless adjustment to make.

Because the benefit for high earners is much less, as a percentage of one's 35-year work history, than it is for lesser earners.  So unless there's an increased benefit for those making more than $117k, the system is going to face some very serious challenges from people who would be in effect subsidizing everyone else's retirement (i.e., people with the money to buy political influence).  And that could threaten the whole shebang. And where do you draw the line on means-testing?  Hard to support a confiscatory tax that provides no benefit whatsoever to those who'd be forking over a lifetime's worth of contributions only to be told down the road, "sorry pal, we know you worked hard, didn't spend frivolously, saved and invested, but you have enough -- we've got to give your money to the less industrious/frugal/foresighted folks."  That's a tough pill to swallow and a very hard political sell. Social Security, even for many so-called "high earners" -- say families earning between $100-$200K -- is still a significant part of the retirement security equation.

Undecided

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2014, 09:39:38 AM »

Thanks for the link and research.  It looks like the trend is that the more adventurous baby boomers ...


You're confusing "speculation" and "trend."

foobar

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2014, 09:51:31 AM »
I don't know what other self employed people do but I pay myself as low as possible reasonable salary (it is over the max SS tax) and take the rest as dividends just to avoid the medicare taxes. I don't expect that to change. If there was a legal way to shift my income into capital gains, you bet I would be doing that.

Means testing sounds great until you realize it just encourages people not to save. You are save much by not giving Bill Gates a SS check. To save money you are going to have to hit the middle/upper middle class people that saved 10% over their salary for 30 years and who are know sitting on 2 million dollar nest eggs. 

One thing to remember is projecting out 20+ years is really tough. Maybe the new generation of obese old people will die off sooner than we expect. Or of course maybe medical advancements will keep them all around until 100.  Personally I worry a heck of a lot more about medicare and medicaid (pays for a lot of nursing home care) than SS. It would be easy to tell someone your benefits are not going up this year. Telling someone that they don't get a new liver is a lot trickier.



What do you think?  Do you think the self employed would start to shift revenue in their business away from income and into capital gains if the income cap is lifted?

Baylor3217

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2014, 11:32:02 PM »

Do you think those that make over $117,000 would agree?
Not sure.  When I was consulting I would hit the limit in August and have to admit I liked getting the extra $400 or so every couple of weeks for the rest of the year.  That being said, I wouldn't have really missed it if it wasn't capped.

Wouldn't have missed it?  Mind.  Blown

HayMaker

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Re: Protecting Social Security for the Next 75 Years
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2014, 10:52:50 PM »

Do you think those that make over $117,000 would agree?
Not sure.  When I was consulting I would hit the limit in August and have to admit I liked getting the extra $400 or so every couple of weeks for the rest of the year.  That being said, I wouldn't have really missed it if it wasn't capped.

Wouldn't have missed it?  Mind.  Blown

Yes, well that was when I was on auto pilot regarding my financial affairs.  I shepherd each dollar now.