Author Topic: Predict the future development path of EVs!  (Read 3727 times)

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #100 on: April 15, 2021, 08:02:53 AM »
Hopefully boats could be one day.   They are making some progress with solar assisted power on boats, which would mesh well with battery storage and electrical propulsion.

AlanStache

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #101 on: April 15, 2021, 09:17:52 AM »

Max engine thrust by type: (varies by aircraft version and engine type)
747: 46,000 to 66,000 lb   (x4)
777: 77,000 to 115,000 lb  (x2)
787: 64,000, 76,000, lb   (x2)

Yes energy storage is a major problem, perhaps even the critical point that will prevent changes in large aircraft.  But the point was that generating large amounts of thrust electrically on large aircraft is also not solved and has been being worked for awhile - if I have missed some advance here I would love to read about it. 

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #102 on: April 15, 2021, 09:25:54 AM »
Saw some numbers for freight trains years back, and given the weight and terrain there are individual routes that would require entire power plaints to power the trains electrically.  Then you still need tens of thousands of miles of electrical lines.  Similar problem with electrifying large aircraft, jet engines produce crazy amounts of equivalent electrical power.  I have heard that in large aircraft aviation using electrical motors for propulsion has been five years off for a decade or two.  Its not that we cant produce large amounts of electrical power, we can, its just on an airplane you have painful size, weight and cooling considerations that dont exists on the ground. 

https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/19569/how-many-kilowatts-to-get-an-electric-747-8-airborne

Dang, was going to get me 100$ :-(

Just put nuclear power in that airplane. Its was done in the 1960s. It had its drawbacks...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_aircraft

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #103 on: April 15, 2021, 09:27:18 AM »
It's the reason why a Ford Fusion can go 300 miles on 60 pounds of gasoline but the Ford Mach-E needs a 1200 pound battery pack to go the same distance. H2 is better on a per-pound basis, but it is very bulky to store and presents its own problems if you go for liquid hydrogen tanks to maximize density.

Perhaps long distance travel will circle around to trains again...

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #104 on: April 15, 2021, 10:11:52 AM »
Hopefully boats could be one day.   They are making some progress with solar assisted power on boats, which would mesh well with battery storage and electrical propulsion.

You know how you make hydrogen? You use electricity to split water molecules into atoms of hydrogen and oxygen. You know what ships have an almost unlimited supply of? Free water. Instead of using the clean electricity to charge an insane number of batteries that would fill half a ship, why not take the solar or wind generated electricity and use it to turn the water the ship is floating in into hydrogen fuel? It will probably take up less space on the ship, and be lighter weight than an insane amount of batteries. They could centralize the hydrogen production at ports to improve scale, and then just fuel the ships like they currently do too. Or add the solar/wind generation capabilities to the ships so they can restore some of their fuel supply while at sea.

RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #105 on: April 15, 2021, 10:21:47 AM »
Hopefully boats could be one day.   They are making some progress with solar assisted power on boats, which would mesh well with battery storage and electrical propulsion.

You know how you make hydrogen? You use electricity to split water molecules into atoms of hydrogen and oxygen. You know what ships have an almost unlimited supply of? Free water. Instead of using the clean electricity to charge an insane number of batteries that would fill half a ship, why not take the solar or wind generated electricity and use it to turn the water the ship is floating in into hydrogen fuel? It will probably take up less space on the ship, and be lighter weight than an insane amount of batteries. They could centralize the hydrogen production at ports to improve scale, and then just fuel the ships like they currently do too. Or add the solar/wind generation capabilities to the ships so they can restore some of their fuel supply while at sea.

Salt water is harder to turn into hydrogen than pure water. Though the problem is being worked on:
https://news.stanford.edu/2019/03/18/new-way-generate-hydrogen-fuel-seawater/

AlanStache

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #106 on: April 15, 2021, 10:25:37 AM »
Hopefully boats could be one day.   They are making some progress with solar assisted power on boats, which would mesh well with battery storage and electrical propulsion.

You know how you make hydrogen? You use electricity to split water molecules into atoms of hydrogen and oxygen. You know what ships have an almost unlimited supply of? Free water. Instead of using the clean electricity to charge an insane number of batteries that would fill half a ship, why not take the solar or wind generated electricity and use it to turn the water the ship is floating in into hydrogen fuel? It will probably take up less space on the ship, and be lighter weight than an insane amount of batteries. They could centralize the hydrogen production at ports to improve scale, and then just fuel the ships like they currently do too. Or add the solar/wind generation capabilities to the ships so they can restore some of their fuel supply while at sea.

The energy loss going into and out of hydrogen is much larger than the energy loss going into and out of electric batteries.  Is idea is to power the ship by solar and store energy for at night like this one https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%BBranor_PlanetSolar?  It says they cruised at 10knots, google says container ships cruise at 24knots. 



Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #107 on: April 15, 2021, 10:33:13 AM »
Hopefully boats could be one day.   They are making some progress with solar assisted power on boats, which would mesh well with battery storage and electrical propulsion.

You know how you make hydrogen? You use electricity to split water molecules into atoms of hydrogen and oxygen. You know what ships have an almost unlimited supply of? Free water. Instead of using the clean electricity to charge an insane number of batteries that would fill half a ship, why not take the solar or wind generated electricity and use it to turn the water the ship is floating in into hydrogen fuel? It will probably take up less space on the ship, and be lighter weight than an insane amount of batteries. They could centralize the hydrogen production at ports to improve scale, and then just fuel the ships like they currently do too. Or add the solar/wind generation capabilities to the ships so they can restore some of their fuel supply while at sea.

Salt water is harder to turn into hydrogen than pure water. Though the problem is being worked on:
https://news.stanford.edu/2019/03/18/new-way-generate-hydrogen-fuel-seawater/

Yep. Correct. Sorry if I implied it's a simple process, or even all that efficient. I was mostly speaking in generalities to simplify the point. For some applications "add more batteries" isn't the solution. Hydrogen has some very strong advantages over batteries as we know them, particularly in large scale commercial vehicles. You understand this of course, I'm mostly just responding to anyone that might be less familiar with subjects like this.


verfrugal

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #108 on: April 15, 2021, 10:38:05 AM »
Perhaps long distance travel will circle around to trains again...

France just passed legislation in one of their representative bodies that would suspend domestic flights between points reachable by train in 2.5 hours, or something similiar.

The trains there are quite nice.  Same in Spain, where I greatly prefer train travel -- so much less stress and very civilized.  I mean, who doesn't love standing in a dining car eating jamon sandwiches and drinking wine while flying past the landscape at the speeds of a F1 car, and it feels almost like you are standing on the platform still...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/12/france-ban-some-domestic-flights-train-available-macron-climate-convention-mps


Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #109 on: April 15, 2021, 10:44:11 AM »
Hopefully boats could be one day.   They are making some progress with solar assisted power on boats, which would mesh well with battery storage and electrical propulsion.

You know how you make hydrogen? You use electricity to split water molecules into atoms of hydrogen and oxygen. You know what ships have an almost unlimited supply of? Free water. Instead of using the clean electricity to charge an insane number of batteries that would fill half a ship, why not take the solar or wind generated electricity and use it to turn the water the ship is floating in into hydrogen fuel? It will probably take up less space on the ship, and be lighter weight than an insane amount of batteries. They could centralize the hydrogen production at ports to improve scale, and then just fuel the ships like they currently do too. Or add the solar/wind generation capabilities to the ships so they can restore some of their fuel supply while at sea.

The energy loss going into and out of hydrogen is much larger than the energy loss going into and out of electric batteries.

Yes, it's a less efficient process to turn electricity into hydrogen than it is to simply store the electricity in batteries. As you're aware, the problem with batteries is that they're really big, really heavy, and really resource intensive. Hydrogen is an improvement over batteries in each of those categories for a lot of applications. There's not a single way forward. We don't currently rely on a single fuel for all transportation because some fuels work better than others at accomplishing different tasks. I think the future will be similar. Batteries have their place, especially now. Personally, I think hydrogen is a better end goal for all EVs, but at the very least I think it has more potential as a more viable battery alternative in vehicles that do lots of work.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #110 on: April 15, 2021, 10:49:28 AM »
A container ship at 1200 foot length and 160 foot beam could sport up to 2.8 megawatts of solar at 15% efficiency panels.

Unfortunately it takes something like 30GWh to cross the Atlantic in a big container ship according to one source I read.

In a 30 day crossing with 6 hours of full sun, you would only generate about 0.5GWh.

need a brighter sun!
« Last Edit: April 15, 2021, 10:51:10 AM by Roland of Gilead »

verfrugal

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #111 on: April 15, 2021, 11:11:39 AM »
I found this two-part series on the hydrogen economy to be very enlightening.  I have a subscription so heard the full episodes, but their free short versions are also well done.  The podcast has been well worth the subscription if you are into this topic at all.  Highly reccomended, as the host Chris Nelder has been working on EVs for decades.

https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-142-hydrogen-economy-2-0-part-1/

Abe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #112 on: April 15, 2021, 07:50:29 PM »
This may be a dumb question, but can hydrogen gas be used to power turbines rather than natural gas? Obviously there's some engineering that'll go into using a different fuel source, but technically should be possible, right? Then fuel cells won't be needed, just land-based electrolysis stations and storage tanks on the ships.

RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #113 on: April 15, 2021, 08:21:11 PM »
This may be a dumb question, but can hydrogen gas be used to power turbines rather than natural gas? Obviously there's some engineering that'll go into using a different fuel source, but technically should be possible, right? Then fuel cells won't be needed, just land-based electrolysis stations and storage tanks on the ships.
Yes.
https://www.powermag.com/siemens-roadmap-to-100-hydrogen-gas-turbines/

norajean

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #114 on: April 15, 2021, 08:53:02 PM »
Oil is still struggling to overtake coal as an energy source, 120 years after discovery. Any electric, solar or hydrogen revolution will have to get in line.

Abe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #115 on: April 15, 2021, 08:54:38 PM »
This may be a dumb question, but can hydrogen gas be used to power turbines rather than natural gas? Obviously there's some engineering that'll go into using a different fuel source, but technically should be possible, right? Then fuel cells won't be needed, just land-based electrolysis stations and storage tanks on the ships.
Yes.
https://www.powermag.com/siemens-roadmap-to-100-hydrogen-gas-turbines/

Nice. Found that when I searched but with the fuel cell / battery talk wasn’t sure if I was missing something.

What do you all think of the volkswagen id4?

Sid Hoffman

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #116 on: April 15, 2021, 08:56:27 PM »
This may be a dumb question, but can hydrogen gas be used to power turbines rather than natural gas? Obviously there's some engineering that'll go into using a different fuel source, but technically should be possible, right? Then fuel cells won't be needed, just land-based electrolysis stations and storage tanks on the ships.
Fuel cells are far more efficient than turbines. In general, 2/3 of the potential energy from a turbine engine is lost to heat and friction versus something like only 10% through a fuel cell. This would mean a hydrogen gas turbine engine equipped ship could need to carry 3 times as much fuel for a given journey.

Oil is still struggling to overtake coal as an energy source, 120 years after discovery. Any electric, solar or hydrogen revolution will have to get in line.

Coal is within 10-15 years of extinction in the developed world. Germany and China might be the last two countries still using coal, and even they are likely to be done within 30 years. Oil basically isn't EVER used for power generation except on islands where it's impractical to ship any other type of fuel to the island.

RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #117 on: April 16, 2021, 07:41:25 AM »
What do you all think of the volkswagen id4?
The ID.4 and its slightly more upscale cousin, the Audi Q4 e-tron, look to be excellent EVs overall. I expect them to be quite popular (at least as far as non-Teslas go). I've heard the ID.4 has some issues with the infotainment system being laggy so hopefully that can be improved in the future, maybe with software updates. If it wasn't for the upcoming Ioniq 5/EV6 these would probably be at the top of my list for consideration.

I am disappointed that VW isn't releasing the ID.3 in the US though. That is closer in size to the Golf which would be perfect for us. I've heard lots of good things about the ID.3.

In other EV news the redesigned Bolt for 2022 is going to be $5500 cheaper (~$32k MSRP). Though it doesn't qualify for federal incentives anymore and they didn't bother updating the charging rate from the mediocre 55 kW...

Abe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #118 on: April 16, 2021, 06:23:23 PM »
I'm pretty excited about the new vehicles coming out considering their price. I think in general I want to wait a year or two to let them iron out the bugs. My wife and I are (like good Mustachians) in no hurry to buy a new car and don't really drive much, so there isn't a good reason to purchase an EV until we have one that will last 10-15 years. But the technology is rapidly advancing and I think at least for luxury cars EV will be a new status symbol and quickly take over.

Fuel cells are a bit further behind, but maybe they will be practical for larger vehicles that are depot or port-based (limiting the amount of new infrastructure).
« Last Edit: April 16, 2021, 06:25:53 PM by Abe »

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #119 on: April 17, 2021, 06:28:22 AM »
In other EV news the redesigned Bolt for 2022 is going to be $5500 cheaper (~$32k MSRP). Though it doesn't qualify for federal incentives anymore and they didn't bother updating the charging rate from the mediocre 55 kW...

The updated Bolt still uses the same battery I believe, instead of GMs latest and greatest Ultium packs. So you can't charge it very quickly because it's essentially 5 year old battery tech. The new EVs coming from GM in the next year or so get the new batteries with faster charging. I really like what GM is doing with their approach to modular batteries and motors. It seems really flexible.