Author Topic: Predict the future development path of EVs!  (Read 3555 times)

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #50 on: April 07, 2021, 04:17:57 PM »
Main problem with EVs as I see it,

1. The energy required to manufacture an EV is worse than petrol cars. The batteries are mined in one part of the world using dirty energy and shipped to the other side of the world for manufacturing. Then the cars are shipped around on massive oil tankers. There is nothing ‘green’ going on here.

2. The charging is inconvenient unless you have a garage with a fast charger at home. Millions of people live in apartments or houses with street parking.

3. The charging is slow.   Who wants to wait 30mins to 5 hours to get enough electricity to take you where you need to go? It’s slowing the world down.

4. The electricity coming out of the plug is usually not green at all.  In Australia it is burnt coal. In other countries even worse.

5. The cars are dynamically not very good, much Heavier than normal cars which is not good for handling,  unless a Porsche Taycan which is wildly expensive.

6. Popular affordable brands like Tesla have very limited model ranges limiting appeal

7. The owners of EVs are too quirky for me.

Result? I will stick to petrol and diesel cars as long as possible.

1) Lifecycle emissions are superior to ICE: Source 1, Source 2

2) Millions of people also live in apartments or houses with accessibility to or potential to install EV chargers.

3) How often are you driving more than 300 miles in a day? If you are, you're certainly not using level 2 charging on the road, so your 5 hour wait is hyperbolic. If you're not, it's a non issue because any modern EV will easily fully recharge overnight on a household L2 charger.

4) Solar is projected to provide 48% of US power by 2050, and five years ago 24% of global energy was renewable.  This is only going to get better with time and technology.

5) A Tesla Model 3 Performance set a lap time of 1:41.28 at Laguna Seca.  For reference, a Jaguar F-Type R ran 1:42.00 and an Alfa Romeo 4C 1:43.78.

6) The Model 3 is the best selling car across all passenger segments in California and their production is still not ahead of demand (current estimated delivery from order is 8-12 weeks).

7) I can't help you there.

Blackeagle

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #51 on: April 07, 2021, 04:55:04 PM »
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been “10 years away” for the last 20 years.

Abe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #52 on: April 07, 2021, 06:09:46 PM »
Couple of factual errors @JLee already pointed out, and I have a few points to add regarding power sources:

US power source by fuel type: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php
Natural gas: 40%
Nuclear: 20%
Coal: 19%
Oil: 1%
Renewable: 20%

Canadian power source by fuel type:
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/electricity-facts/20068
67% Renewable
15% Nuclear
11% Natural gas/oil
7% Coal

EU: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/9990.pdf
30% Renewable
27% Nuclear
43% Natural Gas & Coal (30% Natural gas, 13% coal from other sources, but not specified here)

All of those sources except coal are lower emitters per watt than oil, and when accounting for efficiencies of coal power plants (~80%) vs car engines (30-40%), coal is probably on par (if not lower). Overall, as percent of energy source, renewable and natural gas are increasing while nuclear is slowly dropping and coal is dropping quickly.


JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #53 on: April 07, 2021, 06:30:18 PM »
To add to @Abe, if the primary argument is "our power is made by coal" that's not as much a downfall of EVs as it is a criticism of an antiquated power generation system that should be replaced anyway!

RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #54 on: April 07, 2021, 06:58:35 PM »
This seems like as good a place/time as any to drop this link:
The Dirty Truth about Combustion Engine Vehicles on the Fully Charged channel

Unfortunately leaves out some stuff and obviously has some bias but otherwise generally a good overview of why we want a future with EVs.

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #55 on: April 07, 2021, 10:05:27 PM »
Not that I think it will happen, but I want the future of EVs to look more like https://www.biohybrid.com/en/ than a tesla or bolt. The problem is that for the price of a new bio-hybrid, I could buy a lighty used bolt. If the enclosed ebike could get closer to the economy of scale that lets a bolt be sold new for $30k and bring it the ebike down to 3k (because, let's be honest, there's a lot less material, battery, motor, etc there) -- that's really more in line with what we need than more full-on cars, EV or otherwise.

I mean my unenclosed (cargo) ebike I have is nice. But it'd be sure nice to have a canopy/sides/3+ wheels when it is cold/rainy/icy/windy. That describes probably half the year here, if you include weather during late spring/summer/early fall.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #56 on: April 08, 2021, 04:10:04 AM »
I predict hydrogen fuel cells will replace batteries by 2030.     Instead of Tesla super chargers, we'll be seeing hydrogen fuel at the pumps.

They haven't particularly caught on in the last three decades so I really doubt it will in the next either. It has numerous problems (some of which are mentioned above by JLee) and the automotive industry is already leaning heavily into BEVs.

BEVs are nice options for a lot of personal vehicles, but they're really lacking for a lot of commercial applications. There's just not enough energy density, and you end up hauling around a bunch of heavy batteries all the time, whether they're charged or not. In the last 3-5 years, there has been a lot of money dumped into fuel cells by companies that make vocational vehicles, ships, trains, etc. That's where I think hydrogen is most likely to catch on. I know that fuel cells have been 'The Next Big Thing' for a long time, but there's been more investment in the last 5 years than any time before, and we're seeing more and more real world applications trickle out. A few SE Asian countries are even taking nationwide approaches to adopt hydrogen.

It's not without flaws, but hydrogen made via renewable energy has some potential advantages over batteries in both usefulness and environmental impact. Thinking about it more, I guess I see hydrogen as the diesel of the future (less commonly found, but great for applications where getting work done efficiently is mission critical) and BEVs more like a gasoline equivalent (more common, and good enough/cheap enough to work for most civilian needs).

RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #57 on: April 08, 2021, 06:54:38 AM »
I predict hydrogen fuel cells will replace batteries by 2030.     Instead of Tesla super chargers, we'll be seeing hydrogen fuel at the pumps.

They haven't particularly caught on in the last three decades so I really doubt it will in the next either. It has numerous problems (some of which are mentioned above by JLee) and the automotive industry is already leaning heavily into BEVs.

BEVs are nice options for a lot of personal vehicles, but they're really lacking for a lot of commercial applications. There's just not enough energy density, and you end up hauling around a bunch of heavy batteries all the time, whether they're charged or not. In the last 3-5 years, there has been a lot of money dumped into fuel cells by companies that make vocational vehicles, ships, trains, etc. That's where I think hydrogen is most likely to catch on. I know that fuel cells have been 'The Next Big Thing' for a long time, but there's been more investment in the last 5 years than any time before, and we're seeing more and more real world applications trickle out. A few SE Asian countries are even taking nationwide approaches to adopt hydrogen.

It's not without flaws, but hydrogen made via renewable energy has some potential advantages over batteries in both usefulness and environmental impact. Thinking about it more, I guess I see hydrogen as the diesel of the future (less commonly found, but great for applications where getting work done efficiently is mission critical) and BEVs more like a gasoline equivalent (more common, and good enough/cheap enough to work for most civilian needs).

Ah, yes, I should clarify that I was specifically referring to hydrogen fuel cells in passenger vehicles (first proof-of-concept in 1991). Energy density is a huge advantage for hydrogen so I can see it becoming viable for some commercial level applications.

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #58 on: April 08, 2021, 08:01:51 AM »
A hydrogen fuel cell car is an EV with a fuel cell to recharge a smallish battery. So it is a more complicated, more expensive EV.

And so far, the fuel cell itself isn't durable. Needs to be replaced several times over the course of the vehicle's lifetime according to what I've read.

The only advantage to the owner is that it refuels faster than an EV. The real advantage is to the oil companies who are guaranteed a product that everyone needs to buy to motor around town. And there is far, far, far less fuel cell infrastructure for refueling than there is EV infrastructure. And any EV can charge off of any electrical outlet with the right adapters.

Installing a commercial L2 EV charger is dead simple. Hydrogen infrastructure always seems to include a fueling station (tanks, lighting, etc) so more expensive and complex. 
https://youtu.be/9AQhZEdWXnI

As batteries continue to improve they'll get lighter, more durable, and smaller. We are already witnessing that trend.

As for delivery and commercial vehicles - many of those vehicles don't drive that many miles per day. Our rural route mail lady says she drives ~75 miles a day. Even if a UPS/FedEX/DHL driver drove twice that much, its very doable in 2021 using an EV delivery van.

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #59 on: April 08, 2021, 08:08:35 AM »
Not that I think it will happen, but I want the future of EVs to look more like https://www.biohybrid.com/en/ than a tesla or bolt. The problem is that for the price of a new bio-hybrid, I could buy a lighty used bolt. If the enclosed ebike could get closer to the economy of scale that lets a bolt be sold new for $30k and bring it the ebike down to 3k (because, let's be honest, there's a lot less material, battery, motor, etc there) -- that's really more in line with what we need than more full-on cars, EV or otherwise.

I mean my unenclosed (cargo) ebike I have is nice. But it'd be sure nice to have a canopy/sides/3+ wheels when it is cold/rainy/icy/windy. That describes probably half the year here, if you include weather during late spring/summer/early fall.

I'm wholeheartedly behind light duty pedal/battery powered hybrids in urban environments if the infrastructure is done right. Culturally we Americans seem welded to the idea of ever larger, faster cars. I'd also like to see a spoke shape bike path system in our small town into the rural parts of the county. Help the people who want to pedal into and around town do so. Get some cars off the road. Traffic here is lousy due to volume. I'm sure the city will decide to widen all the streets so it becomes impossible to walk or bicycle anywhere. It is unlikely that this town will ever do much about bike paths for utility. We have some paths but its for recreation.

norajean

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #60 on: April 08, 2021, 08:10:15 AM »
EVs have a long way to go at about 3% market share in the US, most of which is Tesla which continues to suffer appalling reliability.

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #61 on: April 08, 2021, 09:07:17 AM »
EVs have a long way to go at about 3% market share in the US, most of which is Tesla which continues to suffer appalling reliability.

...and?

Average vehicle age in the US is nearly 12 years. It will take time.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #62 on: April 08, 2021, 09:45:43 AM »
A hydrogen fuel cell car is an EV with a fuel cell to recharge a smallish battery. So it is a more complicated, more expensive EV.

And so far, the fuel cell itself isn't durable. Needs to be replaced several times over the course of the vehicle's lifetime according to what I've read.

The only advantage to the owner is that it refuels faster than an EV. The real advantage is to the oil companies who are guaranteed a product that everyone needs to buy to motor around town. And there is far, far, far less fuel cell infrastructure for refueling than there is EV infrastructure. And any EV can charge off of any electrical outlet with the right adapters.

Installing a commercial L2 EV charger is dead simple. Hydrogen infrastructure always seems to include a fueling station (tanks, lighting, etc) so more expensive and complex. 
https://youtu.be/9AQhZEdWXnI

As batteries continue to improve they'll get lighter, more durable, and smaller. We are already witnessing that trend.

As for delivery and commercial vehicles - many of those vehicles don't drive that many miles per day. Our rural route mail lady says she drives ~75 miles a day. Even if a UPS/FedEX/DHL driver drove twice that much, its very doable in 2021 using an EV delivery van.

Delivery vans and mail trucks are relatively light duty, and they typically start and finish their day in the same location where they can charge for several hours. They're a good enough fit for batteries that they can be done right now. But things like trains, boats, semi trucks, heavy construction equipment, airplanes, etc are not good fits for batteries because batteries are too heavy, take up too much space, or simply cannot be charged with any certainty due to the location. Big machines that do hard work will sap batteries very quickly. This is a problem with energy density and duty cycle. It's going to take major battery breakthroughs to fix that for these applications. Look at the 50-60% range losses that a Tesla might have while towing a small trailer and you get the idea.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122487_towing-a-camper-with-a-tesla-model-x-thank-elon-for-superchargers

Now scale that small trailer up from 3800lbs in that story to 50k lbs, make it larger/less aerodynamic, and let the driver do the speed limit instead of being limited to 50-55mph and the problem is made even worse. And that's before you consider lengthy charge times. If you need to get a ship full of goods across an ocean, or 80k lbs from the west cost to the east coast, or a train half a mile long up the coast or a big pile of dirt loaded into trucks ASAP, batteries require a lot of compromises right now. Hydrogen packs more energy density into a given volume than a battery, gets lighter as it's consumed, and the smaller battery uses far fewer rare Earth minerals, so much like a PHEV, you can spread out the amount of battery material that might go into a single EV into multiple vehicles and get more environmental bang for your buck. You're correct that it's got massive hurdles like infrastructure to overcome, particularly in the US. But if it can be made to work (with lots of green electricity generation and money spent on infrastructure), it's probably a better overall solution than vehicles that are strictly battery powered.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #63 on: April 08, 2021, 09:52:44 AM »
Our 2018 Ford Transit mid roof van is *almost* the perfect vehicle.

It has 5'9" of headroom, can easily fit a 10 foot long item in the cargo hold and can convert to a camper with a queen size memory foam mattress with storage underneath in about 5 minutes.   

The ONLY problem is it sucks in the snow.  It is RWD and unless you load up the back with 3000 pounds, the tires just spin in the snow.

If you were to take the powertrain of a 2 motor cybertruck, with all wheels powered, give it a 250kWh battery, put it in this van, you would have IMO the most bad ass vehicle around.   300+ mile range, ability to tow, excellent AWD snow/ice performance, and the ultimate camper with a 250kWh battery bank for extended stays with no generator noise.

Elon, you listening?

bmjohnson35

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #64 on: April 08, 2021, 10:04:18 AM »
Look at ICE vehicle advancement over the past 100 years.  Considering technology and international commercial cooperation today compared to 100 yrs ago, I think EV tech will develop much faster.  It has been around 25 yrs since the first Toyota Prius. I find myself reading about new battery tech at least monthly.  I suspect we will see significant increases in power density and reduced charged times over the next 10 -15 yrs or so.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 1k mile driving range within that timeframe. It may even be eventually be possible to have lighter EV sports cars that have similar driving ranges as ICE.  The batteries we use now are far from eco friendly, but I suspect we will see improvements in this area as well. 

One of the areas we need to improve is infrastructure.  I see Biden is already trying to tackle this one.  I don't know how standardized these are, but it makes sense to standardize, similar to fuel pumps.  I see a large uptick in solar in the south, which is also experiencing a lot research.  It only makes sense that we will see solar becoming more common on residential homes that compliment in-home charging for personal EV's. 

I also think that we will see an increase in safer and more cost effective use of nuclear.  Bill Gates is partnering with a company that is building one example of this and it looks very promising. Nuclear would provide added supply for the expansion of electric demand. 

I can honestly say I haven't been very interested in EV's so far, but I think they are a necessary step toward reduced emissions and they are here to stay.  If humanity expects to use Earth as our primary residence long-term, we have no choice but to find better ways to live with the planet, instead of living on the planet.


 
« Last Edit: April 08, 2021, 01:22:06 PM by bmjohnson35 »

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #65 on: April 08, 2021, 10:23:25 AM »
Look at ICE vehicle advancement over the past 100 years.  Considering technology and international commercial cooperation today compared to 100 yrs ago, I think EV tech will development much faster.  It has been around 25 yrs since the first Toyota Prius. I find myself reading about new battery tech at least monthly.  I suspect we will see significant increases in power density and reduced charged times over the next 10 -15 yrs or so.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 1k mile driving range within that timeframe. It may even be eventually be possible to have lighter EV sports cars that have similar driving ranges as ICE.  The batteries we use now are far from eco friendly, but I suspect we will see improvements in this area as well. 

One of the areas we need to improve is infrastructure.  I see Biden is already trying to tackle this one.  I don't know how standardized these are, but it makes sense to standardize, similar to fuel pumps.  I see a large uptick in solar in the south, which is also experiencing a lot research.  It only makes sense that we will see solar becoming more common on residential homes that compliment in-home charging for personal EV's. 

I also think that we will see an increase in safer and more cost effective use of nuclear.  Bill Gates is partnering with a company that is building one example of this and it looks very promising. Nuclear would provide added supply for the expansion of electric demand. 

I can honestly say I haven't been very interested in EV's so far, but I think they are a necessary step toward reduced emissions and they are here to stay.  If humanity expects to use Earth as our primary residence long-term, we have no choice but to find better ways to live with the planet, instead of living on the planet.

That's an important point that I think a lot of people miss - we are very early into the world of EVs, and they're being compared against the pinnacle of 100+ years of ICE engineering and development.  If you were to compare to emissions/environmental impact of a cars from even three decades ago, the difference would be utterly astonishing.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0037-5


Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #66 on: April 08, 2021, 10:28:45 AM »
If you need to get a ship full of goods across an ocean, or 80k lbs from the west cost to the east coast, or a train half a mile long up the coast or a big pile of dirt loaded into trucks ASAP, batteries require a lot of compromises right now. Hydrogen packs more energy density into a given volume than a battery, gets lighter as it's consumed, and the smaller battery uses far fewer rare Earth minerals, so much like a PHEV, you can spread out the amount of battery material that might go into a single EV into multiple vehicles and get more environmental bang for your buck. You're correct that it's got massive hurdles like infrastructure to overcome, particularly in the US. But if it can be made to work (with lots of green electricity generation and money spent on infrastructure), it's probably a better overall solution than vehicles that are strictly battery powered.

True on some of those applications. I expect alot of coast to coast freight could be better served by trains with the last leg done by electric delivery trucks (train depot to customer). Of course that implies a major change to how America does business and change happens slowly. The trucking company won't just let themselves be rendered obsolete overnight.

I think commercial traffic might be a good fit for fuel cells - they already have the maintenance facilities to repair these vehicles when they need complex repairs. They can have a hydrogen depot onsite, etc.

Still, we'll see if Tesla trucks are well received by trucking companies. They may be able to put enough range into their trucks that the driver is restricted by driving hours rather than miles or recharge times.

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #67 on: April 08, 2021, 10:33:43 AM »
If you need to get a ship full of goods across an ocean, or 80k lbs from the west cost to the east coast, or a train half a mile long up the coast or a big pile of dirt loaded into trucks ASAP, batteries require a lot of compromises right now. Hydrogen packs more energy density into a given volume than a battery, gets lighter as it's consumed, and the smaller battery uses far fewer rare Earth minerals, so much like a PHEV, you can spread out the amount of battery material that might go into a single EV into multiple vehicles and get more environmental bang for your buck. You're correct that it's got massive hurdles like infrastructure to overcome, particularly in the US. But if it can be made to work (with lots of green electricity generation and money spent on infrastructure), it's probably a better overall solution than vehicles that are strictly battery powered.

True on some of those applications. I expect alot of coast to coast freight could be better served by trains with the last leg done by electric delivery trucks (train depot to customer). Of course that implies a major change to how America does business and change happens slowly. The trucking company won't just let themselves be rendered obsolete overnight.

I think commercial traffic might be a good fit for fuel cells - they already have the maintenance facilities to repair these vehicles when they need complex repairs. They can have a hydrogen depot onsite, etc.

Still, we'll see if Tesla trucks are well received by trucking companies. They may be able to put enough range into their trucks that the driver is restricted by driving hours rather than miles or recharge times.

The potential for Tesla trucks to convoy is interesting - geese style, with the first one doing the aero work and the rest tucked right in behind.

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #68 on: April 08, 2021, 10:42:38 AM »
Ocean shipping has a alot of room to improve. I'm sure like everything else their strategy starts with cheap to maximize profits. They use the cheapest and dirtiest fuels. Could do fuel cells, nukes, diesel-electric, etc. More expensive cleaner fuels, higher construction costs, and more expensive expertise to operate and maintain.

Low cost is more important than paying for the pollution (long term consequences).
« Last Edit: April 08, 2021, 10:46:49 AM by Just Joe »

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #69 on: April 08, 2021, 10:55:36 AM »
Ocean shipping has a alot of room to improve. I'm sure like everything else their strategy starts with cheap to maximize profits. They use the cheapest and dirtiest fuels. Could do fuel cells, nukes, diesel-electric, etc. More expensive cleaner fuels, higher construction costs, and more expensive expertise to operate and maintain.

Low cost is more important than paying for the pollution (long term consequences).

Ironically ocean shipping has the lowest carbon footprint of any shipping method, but yeah the fuel is horrifically dirty.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2021, 11:00:10 AM by JLee »

bmjohnson35

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #70 on: April 08, 2021, 12:02:21 PM »
Look at ICE vehicle advancement over the past 100 years.  Considering technology and international commercial cooperation today compared to 100 yrs ago, I think EV tech will development much faster.  It has been around 25 yrs since the first Toyota Prius. I find myself reading about new battery tech at least monthly.  I suspect we will see significant increases in power density and reduced charged times over the next 10 -15 yrs or so.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 1k mile driving range within that timeframe. It may even be eventually be possible to have lighter EV sports cars that have similar driving ranges as ICE.  The batteries we use now are far from eco friendly, but I suspect we will see improvements in this area as well. 

One of the areas we need to improve is infrastructure.  I see Biden is already trying to tackle this one.  I don't know how standardized these are, but it makes sense to standardize, similar to fuel pumps.  I see a large uptick in solar in the south, which is also experiencing a lot research.  It only makes sense that we will see solar becoming more common on residential homes that compliment in-home charging for personal EV's. 

I also think that we will see an increase in safer and more cost effective use of nuclear.  Bill Gates is partnering with a company that is building one example of this and it looks very promising. Nuclear would provide added supply for the expansion of electric demand. 

I can honestly say I haven't been very interested in EV's so far, but I think they are a necessary step toward reduced emissions and they are here to stay.  If humanity expects to use Earth as our primary residence long-term, we have no choice but to find better ways to live with the planet, instead of living on the planet.

That's an important point that I think a lot of people miss - we are very early into the world of EVs, and they're being compared against the pinnacle of 100+ years of ICE engineering and development.  If you were to compare to emissions/environmental impact of a cars from even three decades ago, the difference would be utterly astonishing.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0037-5



Just curious, do you know what caused the jump in the US around 2001?

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #71 on: April 08, 2021, 12:15:58 PM »
Look at ICE vehicle advancement over the past 100 years.  Considering technology and international commercial cooperation today compared to 100 yrs ago, I think EV tech will development much faster.  It has been around 25 yrs since the first Toyota Prius. I find myself reading about new battery tech at least monthly.  I suspect we will see significant increases in power density and reduced charged times over the next 10 -15 yrs or so.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 1k mile driving range within that timeframe. It may even be eventually be possible to have lighter EV sports cars that have similar driving ranges as ICE.  The batteries we use now are far from eco friendly, but I suspect we will see improvements in this area as well. 

One of the areas we need to improve is infrastructure.  I see Biden is already trying to tackle this one.  I don't know how standardized these are, but it makes sense to standardize, similar to fuel pumps.  I see a large uptick in solar in the south, which is also experiencing a lot research.  It only makes sense that we will see solar becoming more common on residential homes that compliment in-home charging for personal EV's. 

I also think that we will see an increase in safer and more cost effective use of nuclear.  Bill Gates is partnering with a company that is building one example of this and it looks very promising. Nuclear would provide added supply for the expansion of electric demand. 

I can honestly say I haven't been very interested in EV's so far, but I think they are a necessary step toward reduced emissions and they are here to stay.  If humanity expects to use Earth as our primary residence long-term, we have no choice but to find better ways to live with the planet, instead of living on the planet.

That's an important point that I think a lot of people miss - we are very early into the world of EVs, and they're being compared against the pinnacle of 100+ years of ICE engineering and development.  If you were to compare to emissions/environmental impact of a cars from even three decades ago, the difference would be utterly astonishing.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0037-5



Just curious, do you know what caused the jump in the US around 2001?

It's in the article as "(The increase in 2002 U.S. NOx is due to an EPA modeling methodology change.)"

bmjohnson35

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #72 on: April 08, 2021, 12:20:52 PM »

Oh sorry.....didn't see the link.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #73 on: April 08, 2021, 12:45:09 PM »
If you need to get a ship full of goods across an ocean, or 80k lbs from the west cost to the east coast, or a train half a mile long up the coast or a big pile of dirt loaded into trucks ASAP, batteries require a lot of compromises right now. Hydrogen packs more energy density into a given volume than a battery, gets lighter as it's consumed, and the smaller battery uses far fewer rare Earth minerals, so much like a PHEV, you can spread out the amount of battery material that might go into a single EV into multiple vehicles and get more environmental bang for your buck. You're correct that it's got massive hurdles like infrastructure to overcome, particularly in the US. But if it can be made to work (with lots of green electricity generation and money spent on infrastructure), it's probably a better overall solution than vehicles that are strictly battery powered.


True on some of those applications. I expect alot of coast to coast freight could be better served by trains with the last leg done by electric delivery trucks (train depot to customer). Of course that implies a major change to how America does business and change happens slowly. The trucking company won't just let themselves be rendered obsolete overnight.

Trains are great for efficiency, but they take a long time. If you need something on the other side of the country tomorrow, it goes on a plane. If you need it there next week, it goes on a truck. If you need it there next month, then trains are probably good enough.

I think commercial traffic might be a good fit for fuel cells - they already have the maintenance facilities to repair these vehicles when they need complex repairs. They can have a hydrogen depot onsite, etc.
Yeah. There are fuel cell trains running in Europe right now that have hydrogen fueling on both ends of the line. I haven't heard any reviews yet but it seems like a good fit. Or if that's not viable, they could truck in hydrogen like they currently do for other liquid fuels.

Still, we'll see if Tesla trucks are well received by trucking companies. They may be able to put enough range into their trucks that the driver is restricted by driving hours rather than miles or recharge times.

You still run into the energy density issues. Batteries are really heavy. Trucks are capped at 80k lbs of combined weight for the truck, trailer, and it's cargo. Based on some spy shots of the Tesla semi and it's reported gross weight at the time, it's probably 5-7klbs heavier than an average diesel powered truck. That means the truck potentially hauls less cargo at a time, which means you essentially use more trucks to haul an equal amount of goods. The lack of nationwide parts/service for the Tesla truck compared to it's peers could be a hurdle as well. There are numerous truck repair places across the country right now that have common parts on hand to make quick repairs, and techs trained on those repairs. Tesla may eventually get to the same point, but they don't have the same support capability currently which could be seen as a detriment by a fleet owner.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2021, 01:43:42 PM by Paper Chaser »

mwulff

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #74 on: April 08, 2021, 01:05:02 PM »
I think at this point that there is little doubt that the next century belongs to EV for all privat and light commercial traffic. Very likely the electric drivetrain will also dominate heavy transport at some point, but the picture is more murky.

EV's are inarguably better for our climate: https://thedriven.io/2020/04/27/life-cycle-emissions-of-electric-cars-are-fraction-of-fossil-fuelled-vehicles/

There is real hard science all over the internet documenting this again and again and again.

However what really will transform the world will be the combination of self driving technology and the electric drive train. I urge anyone with an interest in this topic to watch Tony Sebas presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYFbnrBrbhs.

There is good reason to believe that working from home, autonomous transportation and electric drivetrains will transform the urban landscape over the coming decade. I hope that it changes to more liveable, walkable, bikeable cities centered around the human experience not the car.

But in my personal opinion the future is heading to electric vehicles and ICE will be regarded as a technology from the dark ages.

If batteries improve by even 20% over what is currently available then no ICE vehicle will be able to match any EV at any price. This is highly likely given the trajectory of battery tech over the last 10-20 years.


bmjohnson35

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #75 on: April 08, 2021, 01:31:07 PM »

ICE vehicle have also become increasingly complex as they try to squeeze out power and every MPG possible.  I remember talking to a vehicle repair shop in 2019, where the owner said he was soon to leave the business due to the increased complexity of cars.  He said he couldn't afford to keep up with the diagnostic equipment needed to effectively troubleshoot newer cars. Engines and all of the parts needed to support their operation on a vehicle is extensive.  EV's seem relatively simple to me.  The platform GM is buying into is a "universal sled" to be used under many different vehicle types.  I suspect an EV's long-term cost to own and maintain will be lower.   

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #76 on: April 08, 2021, 02:40:00 PM »
If you need to get a ship full of goods across an ocean, or 80k lbs from the west cost to the east coast, or a train half a mile long up the coast or a big pile of dirt loaded into trucks ASAP, batteries require a lot of compromises right now.

If the demand was there - and there would be if planes and trucks were no longer viable ways to express ship things - I'm sure the rail industry could start running express freight trains from one coast to another. A bullet train could do it in about 15 hours (using fast math). A fast freight train might be able to do it in double or triple that which is still pretty fast. Faster than a truck b/c drivers need sleep.

scottish

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #77 on: April 08, 2021, 03:12:45 PM »
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been “10 years away” for the last 20 years.

Third time's the charm!

scottish

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #78 on: April 08, 2021, 03:25:48 PM »
I predict hydrogen fuel cells will replace batteries by 2030.     Instead of Tesla super chargers, we'll be seeing hydrogen fuel at the pumps.

They haven't particularly caught on in the last three decades so I really doubt it will in the next either. It has numerous problems (some of which are mentioned above by JLee) and the automotive industry is already leaning heavily into BEVs.

BEVs are nice options for a lot of personal vehicles, but they're really lacking for a lot of commercial applications. There's just not enough energy density, and you end up hauling around a bunch of heavy batteries all the time, whether they're charged or not. In the last 3-5 years, there has been a lot of money dumped into fuel cells by companies that make vocational vehicles, ships, trains, etc. That's where I think hydrogen is most likely to catch on. I know that fuel cells have been 'The Next Big Thing' for a long time, but there's been more investment in the last 5 years than any time before, and we're seeing more and more real world applications trickle out. A few SE Asian countries are even taking nationwide approaches to adopt hydrogen.

It's not without flaws, but hydrogen made via renewable energy has some potential advantages over batteries in both usefulness and environmental impact. Thinking about it more, I guess I see hydrogen as the diesel of the future (less commonly found, but great for applications where getting work done efficiently is mission critical) and BEVs more like a gasoline equivalent (more common, and good enough/cheap enough to work for most civilian needs).

It's good to see at least a couple of people straying away from the herd of BEV believers!    This thread is going to be pretty boring if we're just going to extrapolate from Tesla, the Nissan leaf and the Chevrolet volt.   (Or is it the bolt?   There's an imaginative name for you.)     The US and Canada used to be full of innovative people with imagination.    It wasn't just Elon Musk.      Instead of jumping on the BEV wagon, companies would be exploring hydrogen more aggressively.   Most plentiful substance in the universe, maybe there's some use for it? 

AlanStache

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #79 on: April 08, 2021, 03:55:52 PM »
...
It's good to see at least a couple of people straying away from the herd of BEV believers!    This thread is going to be pretty boring if we're just going to extrapolate from Tesla, the Nissan leaf and the Chevrolet volt.   (Or is it the bolt?   There's an imaginative name for you.)     The US and Canada used to be full of innovative people with imagination.    It wasn't just Elon Musk.      Instead of jumping on the BEV wagon, companies would be exploring hydrogen more aggressively.   Most plentiful substance in the universe, maybe there's some use for it?

Hydrogen is plentiful but not in useful forms.  It takes a lot of tech and energy (or carbon) to get it into a useful form to fuel anything.  It also degrades storage tanks in a matter of years.  But it may be a great solution in some things that are not small/medium trucks or personal vehicles. 


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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #80 on: April 08, 2021, 10:19:53 PM »
True on some of those applications. I expect alot of coast to coast freight could be better served by trains with the last leg done by electric delivery trucks (train depot to customer). Of course that implies a major change to how America does business and change happens slowly. The trucking company won't just let themselves be rendered obsolete overnight.

Fun fact: the USA already leads the world in freight by rail. People complain about not enough passenger rail, but the effect has been that rail lines are almost completely devoted to freight and they increase capacity every year. https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/IS.RRS.GOOD.MT.K6/rankings What the US lacks in passenger rail is made up for by the fact the existing rail lines are almost exclusively and heavily utilized for freight, which is arguably the better usage anyway.

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #81 on: April 09, 2021, 10:10:48 AM »
Hydrogen is plentiful but not in useful forms.  It takes a lot of tech and energy (or carbon) to get it into a useful form to fuel anything.  It also degrades storage tanks in a matter of years.  But it may be a great solution in some things that are not small/medium trucks or personal vehicles.

Hydrogen embrittlement?

scottish

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #82 on: April 09, 2021, 04:44:43 PM »
Hydrogen *is* difficult to store and transfer.    But once these problems are solved for commercial vehicles, they can be applied to consumer vehicles.

And hydrogen can be produced locally using the same electricity you BEV people would use to recharge your batteries.   No need for a huge distribution system as we have for gasoline.

NumberJohnny5

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #83 on: April 09, 2021, 05:13:47 PM »
Hydrogen *is* difficult to store and transfer.    But once these problems are solved for commercial vehicles, they can be applied to consumer vehicles.

And hydrogen can be produced locally using the same electricity you BEV people would use to recharge your batteries.   No need for a huge distribution system as we have for gasoline.

So...it's used like a battery. And the upside is...faster recharging? I checked Amazon and they don't sell hydrogen refuelers for a couple hundred or less (or for any price that I can see), so...how do I charge one of these hydrogen dohickies at home?

Sid Hoffman

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #84 on: April 09, 2021, 07:16:53 PM »
Correct, hydrogen is basically a battery, but its a battery with dramatically higher charging losses than current "normal" batteries. Where you lose something like 10-15% to fast charge a conventional Li-Ion battery, you could be looking at something like 40-50% losses to turn electricity into compressed hydrogen that actually makes it into a vehicle tank. Also while Li-Ion batteries can generally sit for months at a time with only something like 1% loss per day, compressed hydrogen can leak a bit quicker and liquid hydrogen could be looking at as little as two weeks in vehicular cryogenic tanks. IMO liquid H2 is a non-starter for multiple reasons.

Compressed H2 gas is likely going to come down to how quickly we can have an electric grid with a huge surplus of electricity. Thus far, the most promising potential use case for hydrogen fuel cells isn't vehicles at all, it's for generating and using excess renewable energy, such as wind and solar where you can easily have way too much power at certain locations and times of day, then suddenly not enough power at night or when the wind dies down too much. Hydrogen fuel cells and generation could be a great way to act as a grid-scale battery to aid our transition to renewable energy grids.

ender

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #85 on: April 09, 2021, 11:10:06 PM »
Realistically one of the main drawbacks for us if we were to get a fully electric vehicle is less range and more charging at destinations. Numerous frequent destinations we go to are family located in more rural areas where we wouldn't be able to easily charge.

Until charging is somewhat ubiquitous, we're going to be stuck with ICE.

Plus, EV minvan when???

Our recent purchase was a hybrid Sienna though... :-)


Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #86 on: April 10, 2021, 10:44:01 AM »
If your rural family has an electric dryer plug near a door you could still charge. Slip them a $10 bill for the electricity.

mwulff

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #87 on: April 12, 2021, 02:29:09 AM »
Realistically one of the main drawbacks for us if we were to get a fully electric vehicle is less range and more charging at destinations. Numerous frequent destinations we go to are family located in more rural areas where we wouldn't be able to easily charge.

Until charging is somewhat ubiquitous, we're going to be stuck with ICE.

Plus, EV minvan when???

Our recent purchase was a hybrid Sienna though... :-)

My family has gone electric and this means that we can charge no matter who we visit. So this is a problem that solves itself given enough time.

Also there is power at every house we visit so we can just plug it into a normal outlet. It takes forever, but it does charge the car.


AlanStache

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #88 on: April 12, 2021, 07:01:57 PM »
An entertaining summary of the state of hydrogen fuel cell cars was posted today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b88v-WvqzeQ
Fair warning if you are a boomer and might be offended by an adult man in skinny jeans you may want to skip it.

scottish

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #89 on: April 13, 2021, 03:30:14 PM »
An entertaining summary of the state of hydrogen fuel cell cars was posted today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b88v-WvqzeQ
Fair warning if you are a boomer and might be offended by an adult man in skinny jeans you may want to skip it.

It's the refusal to shave that offends me!   And take off that stupid baseball cap, you're indoors!     

The argument he was making was essentially "EVs have first mover advantage and we haven't made much progress on the technical and economic problems of hydrogen"   not "The laws of physics say BEVs will always be better than hydrogen".       


RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #90 on: April 13, 2021, 05:36:34 PM »
An entertaining summary of the state of hydrogen fuel cell cars was posted today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b88v-WvqzeQ
Fair warning if you are a boomer and might be offended by an adult man in skinny jeans you may want to skip it.

It's the refusal to shave that offends me!   And take off that stupid baseball cap, you're indoors!     

The argument he was making was essentially "EVs have first mover advantage and we haven't made much progress on the technical and economic problems of hydrogen"   not "The laws of physics say BEVs will always be better than hydrogen".

Was someone making that argument in this thread? You asserted "hydrogen fuel cells will replace batteries by 2030." It doesn't take the laws of physics to decisively argue against that. Today's problems with hydrogen make it extremely unlikely to see a reversal in majority between BEV vs FCV in just nine years. If you had said you expect that in 2050 then there is less evidence to argue with as the technology might have enough time to overcome today's problems and current inertia by then. But 2030? No way. That's well within currently publicized automaker EV market share roadmaps and there is barely a peep from them about FCV plans.

AlanStache

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #91 on: April 13, 2021, 06:42:40 PM »
An entertaining summary of the state of hydrogen fuel cell cars was posted today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b88v-WvqzeQ
Fair warning if you are a boomer and might be offended by an adult man in skinny jeans you may want to skip it.

It's the refusal to shave that offends me!   And take off that stupid baseball cap, you're indoors!     

The argument he was making was essentially "EVs have first mover advantage and we haven't made much progress on the technical and economic problems of hydrogen"   not "The laws of physics say BEVs will always be better than hydrogen".       


They did break down the energy efficiency of each, some of that is base physics.  If you want to argue that solar will one day give near free electricity ok but it will still take less infrastructure to charge a BEV and that infrastructure is literally everywhere already.  Billions have been spent on hydrogen and they are stuck in "also ran" status.   I agree it would be great to have more viable non-carbon options but I have trouble seeing it with hydrogen.

scottish: For personal vehicles would you put 100$ on hydrogen out selling BEVs in the US by what year?

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #92 on: April 14, 2021, 12:27:22 PM »
FCV feels like greenwashing.

Something for oil company to use as a place holder so share holders continue to believe that big oil will continue to be relevant to the average consumer in the future.

Honestly, I look forward to charging at home and seldom if ever needing a gas station. Pay at the pump was a big improvement to me back in the day too.

Would be real pleased to move away from single use plastic packaging from the grocery store too. Seemingly unrelated to EVs but related to big oil.

scottish

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #93 on: April 14, 2021, 02:36:45 PM »
An entertaining summary of the state of hydrogen fuel cell cars was posted today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b88v-WvqzeQ
Fair warning if you are a boomer and might be offended by an adult man in skinny jeans you may want to skip it.

It's the refusal to shave that offends me!   And take off that stupid baseball cap, you're indoors!     

The argument he was making was essentially "EVs have first mover advantage and we haven't made much progress on the technical and economic problems of hydrogen"   not "The laws of physics say BEVs will always be better than hydrogen".       


They did break down the energy efficiency of each, some of that is base physics.  If you want to argue that solar will one day give near free electricity ok but it will still take less infrastructure to charge a BEV and that infrastructure is literally everywhere already.  Billions have been spent on hydrogen and they are stuck in "also ran" status.   I agree it would be great to have more viable non-carbon options but I have trouble seeing it with hydrogen.

scottish: For personal vehicles would you put 100$ on hydrogen out selling BEVs in the US by what year?

Pretty sure battery charging efficiencies are improving year over year.    Why would fuel cell charging efficiencies not do the same?

You want to bet - are you near Richmond?    I'm not sure if you guys have all changed my mind yet...   the first mover advantage is a pretty big deal.

scottish

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #94 on: April 14, 2021, 04:51:28 PM »
The sales story is not pretty for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.  :-(

Here are the electric vehicle sales - 3.24M last year and growing rapidly.:   
In 2019 there were only 7500 HFC vehicle sales worldwide.   And 2020 looks quite a bit worse.

That doesn't look like a very good bet.




lutorm

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #95 on: April 14, 2021, 05:51:01 PM »
But things like trains, boats, semi trucks, heavy construction equipment, airplanes, etc are not good fits for batteries
I agree with airplanes and semi trucks. Trains is not a problem, you just electrify the track rather than carry a battery. (I think the U.S is the only country with a cross-country railway network that isn't electrified.) I think ships aren't really weight-sensitive, either, it's probably more a volume/cost issue there.

AlanStache

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #96 on: April 14, 2021, 07:16:39 PM »
But things like trains, boats, semi trucks, heavy construction equipment, airplanes, etc are not good fits for batteries
I agree with airplanes and semi trucks. Trains is not a problem, you just electrify the track rather than carry a battery. (I think the U.S is the only country with a cross-country railway network that isn't electrified.) I think ships aren't really weight-sensitive, either, it's probably more a volume/cost issue there.

Saw some numbers for freight trains years back, and given the weight and terrain there are individual routes that would require entire power plaints to power the trains electrically.  Then you still need tens of thousands of miles of electrical lines.  Similar problem with electrifying large aircraft, jet engines produce crazy amounts of equivalent electrical power.  I have heard that in large aircraft aviation using electrical motors for propulsion has been five years off for a decade or two.  Its not that we cant produce large amounts of electrical power, we can, its just on an airplane you have painful size, weight and cooling considerations that dont exists on the ground. 

https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/19569/how-many-kilowatts-to-get-an-electric-747-8-airborne

Dang, was going to get me 100$ :-(

Sid Hoffman

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #97 on: April 14, 2021, 10:38:23 PM »
With regards to the above, the 747 isn't really relevant as all the superjumbos are being retired from service anyway. The direction the world is going is a higher number of smaller planes. If we scale back from jets entirely, there are turboprops that seat around 80 passengers and use 5000hp turboprop engines. It's actually not all that difficult to make 5000hp from a geared electric motor.

The issue isn't so much the power, it's the energy storage. In other words, not the thing that turns the propeller, but the fuel. For a turboprop, that fuel is Jet-A, which has an incredible energy density per pound. For electric motors in an airplane it means either batteries or relying on hydrogen storage tanks and H2 fuel cells to convert that H2 into electricity. Batteries have a very low energy density per pound compared to Jet-A. It's the reason why a Ford Fusion can go 300 miles on 60 pounds of gasoline but the Ford Mach-E needs a 1200 pound battery pack to go the same distance. H2 is better on a per-pound basis, but it is very bulky to store and presents its own problems if you go for liquid hydrogen tanks to maximize density.

At any rate, the move to electric cars is happening because cars are so easy by comparison to anything else and already make up about half of the transportation sector's GHG footprint while also being one of the top sources of smog, which is arguably just as important to eliminate as GHG anyway. The transportation sector accounts for about 29% of the USA's total GHG output, so that puts passenger cars at something like 14-15% of the total GHG, which sounds small, but the point is that we're addressing every sector at the same time, and personal automobiles are the easiest part of the transportation sector to address. Airplanes are way low on the list relative to everything that has easier fixes.

lutorm

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #98 on: April 15, 2021, 12:20:00 AM »
But things like trains, boats, semi trucks, heavy construction equipment, airplanes, etc are not good fits for batteries
I agree with airplanes and semi trucks. Trains is not a problem, you just electrify the track rather than carry a battery. (I think the U.S is the only country with a cross-country railway network that isn't electrified.) I think ships aren't really weight-sensitive, either, it's probably more a volume/cost issue there.

Saw some numbers for freight trains years back, and given the weight and terrain there are individual routes that would require entire power plaints to power the trains electrically.  Then you still need tens of thousands of miles of electrical lines.
This article: http://theoildrum.com/node/4301 makes a pretty good case for the electrification of rail. If the Russians managed to electrify the Trans-Siberian railroad, it seems it shouldn't be a problem here if there's a will to get it done.

The energy has to be supplied somehow anyway, and building the power lines starts to look a lot less expensive when you realize that we are talking about a need to seriously beef up our power distribution capacity anyway, to better handle renewables.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #99 on: April 15, 2021, 04:37:12 AM »
But things like trains, boats, semi trucks, heavy construction equipment, airplanes, etc are not good fits for batteries
I agree with airplanes and semi trucks. Trains is not a problem, you just electrify the track rather than carry a battery. (I think the U.S is the only country with a cross-country railway network that isn't electrified.) I think ships aren't really weight-sensitive, either, it's probably more a volume/cost issue there.

So it sounds like we agree on all counts then? Things like trains, boats, semi trucks, heavy construction equipment, airplanes, etc are not good fits for batteries.