Author Topic: Predict the future development path of EVs!  (Read 3688 times)

The Hin

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Predict the future development path of EVs!
« on: April 05, 2021, 08:29:27 AM »
Like many of you, I am watching the development of EVs into the auto market (I live in the US, so written from that perspective) and it's been great fun to follow the disruption within the auto industry. I am neither an engineer nor am I particularly a gear-head, so my impressions are not informed by any real level of technical knowledge regarding EV or internal combustion (ICE) cars, but at a high level perspective it feels like Tesla has helped catalyze a long-awaited transition away from ICE vehicles and the rate of wholesale change within the auto industry is higher now than any time in my memory. At any rate - it's plain to see that there are billions and billions of dollars being poured into the EV transition now (everything from basic research on battery technology and building out charging infrastructure to ramping up production capacity and designing/redesigning vehicles for an EV world) I have been pondering where I think the current state of EVs are relative to where they'll be in, say, 5-10 years. I'd be curious to hear thoughts and predictions from you smart and curious people.

Here are questions that I have been wondering about:

- What rate of EV efficiency improvement will we see going forward? Looking at rankings of EVs by efficiency the top is sedans (mostly Tesla models) at 24-25 KwH per 100 miles; SUV form factor EVs are more like 30 KwH per 100 miles. EV design is still a relatively new field; what happens when companies aside from Tesla throw themselves into reducing inefficiencies in powertrain, etc? Might battery technology (such as designing batteries that serve in part as the vehicle body) help reduce vehicle weight substantially? I am thinking that 20 KwH per 100 miles for a sedan, and 25 KwH for an SUV, is a reasonable future goal.

- What improvements in battery performance characteristics will come to fruition for consumer EVs? Current battery tech has a number of limitations that impose drawbacks for current EVs, such as dramatically reduced range in cold/hot weather, restrictions on charging rates and potential to damage the battery if you discharge it  too far. I understand that many different companies and academics are working on experimenting with different battery chemistries and battery pack designs; how far off are we from production versions of anything that would allow for noticeable changes in how EVs work as compared to current models?

- How quickly does the price of EV batteries drop? When does the price of EVs reach parity with relatively comparable ICE vehicles?

- When (if ever) does the charging landscape look consumer-friendly in the US? Tesla has obviously set up a great charging network for its vehicles, but public charging for non-Teslas in the US is (as I understand it) a bit of a dicey proposition. Lots of smaller companies providing charging services, each with their own system, lots of reports of frustrations/failures to charge. I don't even know if there's for sure one standard charging port style. Reminds me of Apple vs. Android.

- What political issues are going to be challenges? ICE vehicles provide funding for road maintenance through gas taxes; there is currently no such mechanism for EVs. Will public charging stations (and home ones?) be forced to introduce a tax intended to replace the gas tax? If not, how will states address the funding shortfall for road maintenance with more and more road miles coming from EVs?

- Overall, how mature is current EV technology? On the whole, how much better do you expect the EV proposition/experience relative to ICE vehicles to be in, say, 5 years? Let's measure it on the iPhone scale; if the EV models of five years from now will be an iPhone 12, what model iPhone are the current EVs?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2021, 08:34:45 AM »
I think we are still on flip phones and Tesla is Nokia.   Clear market leader but watch out for that new guy Apple and the smart phone.

Bradlinc4

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2021, 09:05:07 AM »
Do you mean the Apple Car project specifically or as a metaphor of what Apple brought to the smartphone market?

PhrugalPhan

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2021, 09:13:18 AM »
I am most certainly not a gear head either, but I have been educating myself on this since the beginning of the year, and here is a few things I have found out.

Might battery technology (such as designing batteries that serve in part as the vehicle body) help reduce vehicle weight substantially?
My understanding is that Tesla is already starting to do that.  This is supposed to cut ~400 pounds of weight from their newly designed cars.

When does the price of EVs reach parity with relatively comparable ICE vehicles?
It looks we are already there when you include the full life of the vehicle.  The problem is with EVs the savings come more after the purchase.  It will take time for the regular consumer to understand that change.

- When (if ever) does the charging landscape look consumer-friendly in the US? Tesla has obviously set up a great charging network for its vehicles, but public charging for non-Teslas in the US is (as I understand it) a bit of a dicey proposition. Lots of smaller companies providing charging services, each with their own system, lots of reports of frustrations/failures to charge. I don't even know if there's for sure one standard charging port style. Reminds me of Apple vs. Android.
As I understand there is *not* a standard charging port style.  To use other ports you need to buy an adapter.  Though I think this is a bit overblown as most people will be charging at home (assuming they live where they can charge at home).

- Overall, how mature is current EV technology? On the whole, how much better do you expect the EV proposition/experience relative to ICE vehicles to be in, say, 5 years? Let's measure it on the iPhone scale; if the EV models of five years from now will be an iPhone 12, what model iPhone are the current EVs?
EVs shouldn't have the same issues as iPhones.  They're not dependent on the network providers like the phones are.  I only see two possible changes to make them "obsolete".   Functionality at charging stations (just get an adapter) or the chips / boards installed on your car (so far Tesla has replaced these as needed).   The cars should not become unusable as they age, but you will probably want to upgrade your car if we ever get to fast recharging (its the only major downside I see to current EVs)

The Hin

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2021, 11:12:59 AM »
@Bradlinc4 - I meant to use iPhone models as a way to benchmark the sophistication of all EVs available now to your expectations of all EVs available in, say, 5 years.

@PhrugalPhan
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It looks we are already there when you include the full life of the vehicle.  The problem is with EVs the savings come more after the purchase.  It will take time for the regular consumer to understand that change.

That's a valid point, but consumers typically don't keep vehicles for "the full life of the vehicle", they buy for 2-3 years and then trade up, so the sticker price is relevant and a highly visible point of comparison for potential buyers.

Quote
EVs shouldn't have the same issues as iPhones.  They're not dependent on the network providers like the phones are.  I only see two possible changes to make them "obsolete".   Functionality at charging stations (just get an adapter) or the chips / boards installed on your car (so far Tesla has replaced these as needed).   The cars should not become unusable as they age, but you will probably want to upgrade your car if we ever get to fast recharging (its the only major downside I see to current EVs).

I didn't mean to imply that the current EVs would become obsolete in the way old cell phones do (once the OS is no longer supported), my intent in introducing "the iPhone scale" was to suggest a way to describe qualitatively how much improvement you think will occur in EV models over the next 5 years. The answer could be marginal improvements - say, there are more EV models to choose from, price is a little better and all of the new ones support fast charging - and you could say maybe that's the equivalent of an iPhone 8 or 9 now vs. a 12 then. Perhaps that's what you're thinking. @Roland of Gilead is probably envisioning far more sweeping improvements (including the possibility of things that I haven't even contemplated) happening with all the new entrants to the market, hence his response suggesting that the changes will be well beyond iterative improvements to fundamental changes/improvements in the product.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2021, 11:41:48 AM »
Many states already add an additional fee to the annual vehicle registration for EVs that is intended to make up for the lost fuel taxes. In some states it's $150+/yr just to register an EV, with a lower fee for PHEVs. This can really affect the payback math when comparing EVs to ICEs, but I think that fee-based model expands going forward:



People are concerned about reduced EV range in cold temps, but don't realize that ICEs can see similar reduction in range in the same conditions. It's just that ICE's can currently be refueled more quickly/easily than an EV can currently be charged. BUT, if you park in the same spot everyday (like a garage or carport) then you can plug your EV in overnight and leave your house with a full tank every day, so the need for widespread public charging is only an issue for long trips, or those who do not park in the same place for several hours at a time. That means we don't need the same number of EV chargers as we currently have fuel pumps. Something that's 20-30% of the toal number could probably work if those chargers are focused on urban areas where people don't have garages and along highways for those who are taking long trips.

I think the biggest areas of research in batteries moving forward will be cost reduction and/or material construction. Sourcing cheaper, cleaner materials from places that are more politically stable is where I see the real focus in the coming years so that $/kwh continues to fall.

The Hin

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2021, 12:02:13 PM »
@Paper Chaser yep, my family lives in a state with a $200 annual EV fee. We bought a used BMW X5 plug-in hybrid last year (wonderful vehicle, but not great efficiency-wise when running battery-only) and elected not to register it as an EV as it's primarily gas powered in order to avoid that annual fee.

Blackeagle

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2021, 12:04:11 PM »
Perhaps one of the biggest barriers I see to widespread EV adoption (perhaps because it’s a direct obstacle to my buying an EV) is charging for apartment dwellers and renters more generally.  I wonder how long it will be until “EV Charging Available” will be a marketing point for higher-end apartment buildings.  Further down the line perhaps changes to the zoning code mandating parking spots with EV chargers in new buildings.

NumberJohnny5

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2021, 12:25:18 PM »
As for charging, I think in the short-ish long-term we'll end up with something akin to the old mobile plans where you have a home area and pay more to roam. I.e. I think about how there are several power companies that will sell you power, even though there's only one that actually handles the power distribution. If you're "in-network", then you pay the same rate as you do at home. If the power company can sell power anywhere in the state, then you're in-network anywhere in the state (unless there's different rates at different locations, but you get the idea). Travel outside that area, and you pay "roaming rates". You could end up paying whatever the provider at that location choose to bill anyone not on a plan. Or maybe your plan has some kind of nationwide pricing.

For example, maybe anywhere in the metro area where you live, you pay 10c per kWh. Outside that metro area but in-state, you pay 15c kWh. Nationwide you pay 25c per kWh. You may also be billed on your regular electric bill, vs having to pay at time of usage. Be careful of international roaming charges!

"Free" EV charging will be a justification for increased parking rates. If it used to cost $5 an hour to park, now it'll be $8. Won't take long to round that up to $10 (or just keep at $8 but start charging for, um, charging). It'll be a decent deal for the earlier EV adopters, but anyone driving a gas vehicle will have to pay the same higher fees. Note that I'm not saying that EVs will be at fault...rather, if there's an easy way to justify charging more, it's going to happen.

Battery replacements will become more mainstream and a bit more reasonable in cost, but I don't see DRM going away. Perhaps manufacturers could quote a price to "recondition" the powertrain, which includes a new (or refurbished) battery, and give it a new warranty. Paying $8k for a new battery in a ten year old car ain't gonna happen...but $8k for a completely refurbed powertrain with six year warranty? I'm listening....

wageslave23

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2021, 01:00:14 PM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

lutorm

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2021, 06:07:11 PM »
- What rate of EV efficiency improvement will we see going forward? Looking at rankings of EVs by efficiency the top is sedans (mostly Tesla models) at 24-25 KwH per 100 miles; SUV form factor EVs are more like 30 KwH per 100 miles. EV design is still a relatively new field; what happens when companies aside from Tesla throw themselves into reducing inefficiencies in powertrain, etc? Might battery technology (such as designing batteries that serve in part as the vehicle body) help reduce vehicle weight substantially? I am thinking that 20 KwH per 100 miles for a sedan, and 25 KwH for an SUV, is a reasonable future goal.
I'm not sure what the prospect for improvements in inverter/motor efficiency is, since those are already very efficient. Most of the energy consumption goes into aerodynamic and rolling friction. This means a larger vehicle directly translates to a higher energy consumption.

Better battery chemistry may translate into lower charging losses, but this would really only impact the "well to wheel" energy efficiency, not the EPA MPGe number which is a "tank to wheel" number (apart from a tiny effect of lower regen losses.)

I don't think the EPA numbers include heating/cooling either, or at least puts a quite low multiplier on them. I know that our Pacifica Hybrid never gets above 60 MPGe when the EPA number is 80, and I attribute most of that difference to AC use. If you drive in very cold or hot conditions, especially in slow traffic, then a substantial fraction of energy will go into conditioning the cabin instead of into propulsion regardless of improvements in propulsion technology. It's hard to imagine substantial improvements there either (as long as it has a heat pump cabin heater) since those are well-known thermodynamic cycles.


Abe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2021, 08:16:05 PM »
Batteries will become cheaper through a combination of increased supply of raw materials and larger factories producing them. This will lead to higher power/weight ratios, resulting in better efficiency for electric cars. Everything else (aerodynamics, drivetrains, air conditioning/heating) is a near peak efficiency. Older batteries will be re-packaged into commercial or residential energy storage.

Most people will get used to slow-charging their car at home or work. Long-distance trips will require fast chargers or people will just charge at whatever hotel they stay at overnight.

We will all still wonder why the hell we are sitting in traffic instead of on a beach somewhere.

mwulff

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2021, 11:53:38 PM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

I agree on battery-price needing to come down, but current technology has the battery outliving the cars useful life. Improvements should help that even further along.

Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

Arbitrage

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2021, 08:20:42 AM »
Personal Electric Cars are a nice stepping stone, but still inherently really wasteful.  Giant 5000-6000 lb monsters that take up tons of street space and parking space really should not be what we aspire to.  We're talking about trying to get to 20 kWh for 100 miles, when I'm able to ride my electric bike at about 1.5 kWh for 100 miles.  Yes, you could probably bump that number up a bit more for the extra food I have to eat, but it's still around an order of magnitude better, and that would also apply to the lifecycle costs.  The costs in land use and infrastructure of the personal car culture we have are also enormous - huge portions of cities have to be reserved for streets and parking rather than livable, natural/green or productive areas.

Sure, you can't use a e-bike or other small PEV for everything, but shared vehicles and public transit could bridge much or most of the gap there.  There are countries and cities doing it successfully.  Not so much in the USA, but if we're thinking about sustainability, why not consider what baby steps we could take to move toward something an order of magnitude better than two electric cars in every garage?

Now, I'm well aware that a vision of small PEVs/shared cars/mass transit for 9X% of personal transportation is a pipe dream in this country and many others, at least for the next 50 years if not more, but I thought I would throw it out there as food for thought - this is the MMM forum, after all. 

RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2021, 09:28:24 AM »
Sure, you can't use a e-bike or other small PEV for everything [...]
But they are capable of quite a bit more than most people would think:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Qag-AxNPhg

bownyboy

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2021, 09:51:35 AM »
I recommend watching a talk by Tony Seba on just this topic. There are some fascinating points he raises about EV disruption https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y916mxoio0E

wageslave23

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2021, 12:09:11 PM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

I agree on battery-price needing to come down, but current technology has the battery outliving the cars useful life. Improvements should help that even further along.

Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

So they don't need to be replaced after 7-9 yrs?  I'm not refuting this, I actually want to know.  Do you have a link?

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2021, 12:41:55 PM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

I agree on battery-price needing to come down, but current technology has the battery outliving the cars useful life. Improvements should help that even further along.

Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

So they don't need to be replaced after 7-9 yrs?  I'm not refuting this, I actually want to know.  Do you have a link?

I'm not sure we have enough data to know how time plays a factor in battery lifespans, since the oldest mainstream Teslas are only 9 years old right now. But Tesloop has been pretty transparent with their costs and maintenance. They've got a handful of Teslas with over 300k miles, and they typically get about 200-400k miles out of a battery pack:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers

Here's the cost breakdown for the entire life of 2 of their Teslas and 2 of their standard ICE counterparts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HqBIOtNsYPalG51nAw_nubgskv4TQPGx8WhPZO4a_U8/edit#gid=0

I'd say that most ICE powered vehicles will need extensive engine and/or transmission work during a similar timeframe too so large maintenance/replacement costs over 300-500k miles of ownership aren't something that is isolated to EVs.

Also, in the Prius/Insight communities, there are lots of owners that DIY replacement of individual battery cells and keep driving on for a fraction of the cost of replacing the entire battery. You can often find individual battery cells for under $50/piece.

mwulff

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2021, 01:29:44 PM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

I agree on battery-price needing to come down, but current technology has the battery outliving the cars useful life. Improvements should help that even further along.

Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

So they don't need to be replaced after 7-9 yrs?  I'm not refuting this, I actually want to know.  Do you have a link?

I can say with 100% certainty that my 2015 EV still has a perfectly usable battery after 210.000 km. https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/ has some information on batteries with high mileage. So far the picture is that the batteries will last an extremely long time and probably outlive the car.

I'm sorry I can't link to huge studies as they haven't been made yet. But I would be very surprised if my battery dies before 1.000.000 km.


« Last Edit: April 06, 2021, 01:46:07 PM by mwulff »

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2021, 08:00:46 AM »
Perhaps one of the biggest barriers I see to widespread EV adoption (perhaps because it’s a direct obstacle to my buying an EV) is charging for apartment dwellers and renters more generally.  I wonder how long it will be until “EV Charging Available” will be a marketing point for higher-end apartment buildings.  Further down the line perhaps changes to the zoning code mandating parking spots with EV chargers in new buildings.

There are already charge points that look similar to parking meters. Of course this is in Europe so here in the USA we ought to see them in the next 20 years or so. ;)

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2021, 08:07:17 AM »
Personal Electric Cars are a nice stepping stone, but still inherently really wasteful.  Giant 5000-6000 lb monsters that take up tons of street space and parking space really should not be what we aspire to.  We're talking about trying to get to 20 kWh for 100 miles, when I'm able to ride my electric bike at about 1.5 kWh for 100 miles.  Yes, you could probably bump that number up a bit more for the extra food I have to eat, but it's still around an order of magnitude better, and that would also apply to the lifecycle costs.  The costs in land use and infrastructure of the personal car culture we have are also enormous - huge portions of cities have to be reserved for streets and parking rather than livable, natural/green or productive areas.

Sure, you can't use a e-bike or other small PEV for everything, but shared vehicles and public transit could bridge much or most of the gap there.  There are countries and cities doing it successfully.  Not so much in the USA, but if we're thinking about sustainability, why not consider what baby steps we could take to move toward something an order of magnitude better than two electric cars in every garage?

Now, I'm well aware that a vision of small PEVs/shared cars/mass transit for 9X% of personal transportation is a pipe dream in this country and many others, at least for the next 50 years if not more, but I thought I would throw it out there as food for thought - this is the MMM forum, after all.

All good points. I've been watching this channel (below). I think reshaping our country to be less dependent on cars is the most sustainable answer. Not that there is the political will for this in the USA. Perhaps it will start in cities and spread. Perhaps it will start in golf cart communities and spread. I don't know.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0intLFzLaudFG-xAvUEO-A


Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2021, 08:10:01 AM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

I agree on battery-price needing to come down, but current technology has the battery outliving the cars useful life. Improvements should help that even further along.

Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

So they don't need to be replaced after 7-9 yrs?  I'm not refuting this, I actually want to know.  Do you have a link?

https://youtu.be/Ws9Y1be8N-U

Replace a cell, not the whole pack. eBay has cells for ~$100 all the time for Leafs. My Prius friend bought cells a while back for his car for ~$50. Did his own work too.

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2021, 08:12:51 AM »
For the Leaf there is an app call Leaf Spy that can show the user which cells are low and aging badly.

I said eBay has cells for ~$100. Actually $100 gets a person a module (several cells bundled).

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p2380057.m570.l1313&_nkw=nissan+leaf+battery&_sacat=0


JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2021, 08:27:36 AM »
@Bradlinc4 - I meant to use iPhone models as a way to benchmark the sophistication of all EVs available now to your expectations of all EVs available in, say, 5 years.

@PhrugalPhan
Quote
It looks we are already there when you include the full life of the vehicle.  The problem is with EVs the savings come more after the purchase.  It will take time for the regular consumer to understand that change.

That's a valid point, but consumers typically don't keep vehicles for "the full life of the vehicle", they buy for 2-3 years and then trade up, so the sticker price is relevant and a highly visible point of comparison for potential buyers.

Quote
EVs shouldn't have the same issues as iPhones.  They're not dependent on the network providers like the phones are.  I only see two possible changes to make them "obsolete".   Functionality at charging stations (just get an adapter) or the chips / boards installed on your car (so far Tesla has replaced these as needed).   The cars should not become unusable as they age, but you will probably want to upgrade your car if we ever get to fast recharging (its the only major downside I see to current EVs).

I didn't mean to imply that the current EVs would become obsolete in the way old cell phones do (once the OS is no longer supported), my intent in introducing "the iPhone scale" was to suggest a way to describe qualitatively how much improvement you think will occur in EV models over the next 5 years. The answer could be marginal improvements - say, there are more EV models to choose from, price is a little better and all of the new ones support fast charging - and you could say maybe that's the equivalent of an iPhone 8 or 9 now vs. a 12 then. Perhaps that's what you're thinking. @Roland of Gilead is probably envisioning far more sweeping improvements (including the possibility of things that I haven't even contemplated) happening with all the new entrants to the market, hence his response suggesting that the changes will be well beyond iterative improvements to fundamental changes/improvements in the product.

People do that often because new cars have new features and older cars start to need more maintenance - engines/transmissions need more work, etc.  Much of this is either mitigated or completely a non-issue with an EV.

The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #24 on: April 07, 2021, 08:42:41 AM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #25 on: April 07, 2021, 08:45:16 AM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

Congratulations, you found the point! :P  Go price a used Model 3, then go price a new one.

Here's KBB for a 2020 Model 3 with 4700 miles on it:



A 2021 is $48,190 new from Tesla after the documentation fee (and has 353 miles of EPA range vs 322 in 2020).
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 08:50:08 AM by JLee »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2021, 08:56:30 AM »
A 2018 with 14,000 miles on it is $32,000

A 2018 camry with 14,000 miles on it is $27,000


JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2021, 09:03:28 AM »
A 2018 with 14,000 miles on it is $32,000

A 2018 camry with 14,000 miles on it is $27,000

A 2018...SR, SR+, LR RWD, LR? What trim Camry?

Here is a 2018 Camry LE for $15,985. MSRP started at $23,495, so it is listed at 68% of new MSRP.

The cheapest 2018 Model 3 under 14k miles in the US on Cargurus is a LR RWD at $37,500, which was $37,000 new after federal tax credit.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #28 on: April 07, 2021, 09:38:58 AM »
A 2018 with 14,000 miles on it is $32,000

A 2018 camry with 14,000 miles on it is $27,000

A 2018...SR, SR+, LR RWD, LR? What trim Camry?

Here is a 2018 Camry LE for $15,985. MSRP started at $23,495, so it is listed at 68% of new MSRP.

The cheapest 2018 Model 3 under 14k miles in the US on Cargurus is a LR RWD at $37,500, which was $37,000 new after federal tax credit.

Maybe they are collector items now lol?  I don't know why anyone would pay that much for a three year old car...

You can't really count the federal tax credit though in cost of ownership when you are discussing if battery tech is competitive cost wise since it will be going away at some point.   Also, EV are not paying their fair share yet of road maintenance in a lot of places (a 3000 pound EV does just as much damage to road surfaces as a 3000 pound hybrid/gas) which may also change in the near future.

It is getting a lot closer for sure though.  EV will take over very soon, sooner in places like CA.

Sid Hoffman

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #29 on: April 07, 2021, 09:47:53 AM »
Couple of points.

What rate of EV efficiency improvement will we see going forward? Looking at rankings of EVs by efficiency the top is sedans (mostly Tesla models) at 24-25 KwH per 100 miles; SUV form factor EVs are more like 30 KwH per 100 miles. EV design is still a relatively new field; what happens when companies aside from Tesla throw themselves into reducing inefficiencies in powertrain, etc? Might battery technology (such as designing batteries that serve in part as the vehicle body) help reduce vehicle weight substantially? I am thinking that 20 KwH per 100 miles for a sedan, and 25 KwH for an SUV, is a reasonable future goal.

Tesla's efficiency is not that great. They overstate their range figures by about 20% relative to other automakers. Multiple independent sources have confirmed it including Consumer Reports. There's also a number of Alex on Autos videos on youtube where he runs Teslas against other EVs and he's found the same thing in test after test with multiple different cars, multiple routes. What Tesla is reporting is legal, but it basically pushes the limits of what's legal. Other automakers take a much more middle of the road approach to estimating range.

When (if ever) does the charging landscape look consumer-friendly in the US? Tesla has obviously set up a great charging network for its vehicles, but public charging for non-Teslas in the US is (as I understand it) a bit of a dicey proposition. Lots of smaller companies providing charging services, each with their own system, lots of reports of frustrations/failures to charge. I don't even know if there's for sure one standard charging port style. Reminds me of Apple vs. Android.

Non issue, as has been pointed out. There's WAY more non-Tesla chargers out there than there are Tesla chargers in fact, with the last two years or so being the tipping point, partly due to the establishment of Electrify America as part of VW's penance for their destroying the planet with their diesel engines and then lying about it for years.

What political issues are going to be challenges? ICE vehicles provide funding for road maintenance through gas taxes; there is currently no such mechanism for EVs. Will public charging stations (and home ones?) be forced to introduce a tax intended to replace the gas tax? If not, how will states address the funding shortfall for road maintenance with more and more road miles coming from EVs?

No issues. The #1 greatest thing governments are good at is raising taxes. There is literally nothing governments do better than raising and collecting taxes. "Roads and bridges" is the most overused phrase in all of campaigning even though it accounts for only 1% of spending. There is no shortage of money, but it's the most visible infrastructure the government provides, thus it will always be used as a bogeyman to raise taxes. There will absolutely never ever be a shortage of money for roads and bridges, only the perception of a shortage as an excuse to raise taxes.

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #30 on: April 07, 2021, 09:51:00 AM »
A 2018 with 14,000 miles on it is $32,000

A 2018 camry with 14,000 miles on it is $27,000

A 2018...SR, SR+, LR RWD, LR? What trim Camry?

Here is a 2018 Camry LE for $15,985. MSRP started at $23,495, so it is listed at 68% of new MSRP.

The cheapest 2018 Model 3 under 14k miles in the US on Cargurus is a LR RWD at $37,500, which was $37,000 new after federal tax credit.

Maybe they are collector items now lol?  I don't know why anyone would pay that much for a three year old car...

You can't really count the federal tax credit though in cost of ownership when you are discussing if battery tech is competitive cost wise since it will be going away at some point.   Also, EV are not paying their fair share yet of road maintenance in a lot of places (a 3000 pound EV does just as much damage to road surfaces as a 3000 pound hybrid/gas) which may also change in the near future.

It is getting a lot closer for sure though.  EV will take over very soon, sooner in places like CA.

That's what makes Tesla different.  A three year old Model 3 is getting the same software updates that a new one is -- other than incremental improvements here and there, they're largely the same.  New features and functionality get pushed out and boom, upgraded.  There's just not a substantial difference between a 2018 and a 2021 Model 3, and there's nothing significant to wear out.

The federal tax credit has been gone for Tesla for a while - note the KBB image above for my car. It's still worth what I paid for it new, despite no tax credit.

Other EVs depreciate like rocks - take the Chevy Bolt for example, you can buy a 2017 Premiere for $15k now (a bargain IMO - I actually had one before NJ started a $5k rebate on new EVs). They were well over $40k new.

wageslave23

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #31 on: April 07, 2021, 10:36:06 AM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

I agree on battery-price needing to come down, but current technology has the battery outliving the cars useful life. Improvements should help that even further along.

Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

So they don't need to be replaced after 7-9 yrs?  I'm not refuting this, I actually want to know.  Do you have a link?

I'm not sure we have enough data to know how time plays a factor in battery lifespans, since the oldest mainstream Teslas are only 9 years old right now. But Tesloop has been pretty transparent with their costs and maintenance. They've got a handful of Teslas with over 300k miles, and they typically get about 200-400k miles out of a battery pack:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers

Here's the cost breakdown for the entire life of 2 of their Teslas and 2 of their standard ICE counterparts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HqBIOtNsYPalG51nAw_nubgskv4TQPGx8WhPZO4a_U8/edit#gid=0

I'd say that most ICE powered vehicles will need extensive engine and/or transmission work during a similar timeframe too so large maintenance/replacement costs over 300-500k miles of ownership aren't something that is isolated to EVs.

Also, in the Prius/Insight communities, there are lots of owners that DIY replacement of individual battery cells and keep driving on for a fraction of the cost of replacing the entire battery. You can often find individual battery cells for under $50/piece.

Thanks for the info.  I thought the fuel savings would be more between a Tesla and a 20mpg Lincoln.  Considering that I think you could get a comparable ICE car for $30k compared to a Model S, the fuel savings need to be tremendous.

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #32 on: April 07, 2021, 10:40:36 AM »
The battery life and/or replacement cost need to come way down in order to make EV competitive with an equivalent ICE vehicles from an overall cost perspective.  I think it will happen but we are not there yet.  5-10 yrs?

I agree on battery-price needing to come down, but current technology has the battery outliving the cars useful life. Improvements should help that even further along.

Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

So they don't need to be replaced after 7-9 yrs?  I'm not refuting this, I actually want to know.  Do you have a link?

I'm not sure we have enough data to know how time plays a factor in battery lifespans, since the oldest mainstream Teslas are only 9 years old right now. But Tesloop has been pretty transparent with their costs and maintenance. They've got a handful of Teslas with over 300k miles, and they typically get about 200-400k miles out of a battery pack:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers

Here's the cost breakdown for the entire life of 2 of their Teslas and 2 of their standard ICE counterparts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HqBIOtNsYPalG51nAw_nubgskv4TQPGx8WhPZO4a_U8/edit#gid=0

I'd say that most ICE powered vehicles will need extensive engine and/or transmission work during a similar timeframe too so large maintenance/replacement costs over 300-500k miles of ownership aren't something that is isolated to EVs.

Also, in the Prius/Insight communities, there are lots of owners that DIY replacement of individual battery cells and keep driving on for a fraction of the cost of replacing the entire battery. You can often find individual battery cells for under $50/piece.

Thanks for the info.  I thought the fuel savings would be more between a Tesla and a 20mpg Lincoln.  Considering that I think you could get a comparable ICE car for $30k compared to a Model S, the fuel savings need to be tremendous.

First, your target comparison should likely be a Model 3, not a Model S -- but what are you considering to be comparable?  Acceleration, noise, fuel efficiency, maintenance costs, safety features all factored in?

wageslave23

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #33 on: April 07, 2021, 10:44:09 AM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

A Camry is much bigger than a Model 3.  A Civic is probably a better comparison.  So $20k compared to $35k purchase price.  You better be getting a lot of fuel savings.  The opportunity cost of having an extra $15k equity stuck in a vehicle is around $750/yr alone.  Which is more than I would pay for gas each year driving a Civic.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 10:45:45 AM by wageslave23 »

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #34 on: April 07, 2021, 10:52:17 AM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

A Camry is much bigger than a Model 3.  A Civic is probably a better comparison.  So $20k compared to $35k purchase price.  You better be getting a lot of fuel savings.  The opportunity cost of having an extra $15k equity stuck in a vehicle is around $750/yr alone.  Which is more than I would pay for gas each year driving a Civic.

Have you priced a Civic with premium audio, leather, auto LED headlights, auto wipers, heated front/rear seats, and AWD?

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #35 on: April 07, 2021, 10:55:03 AM »

I'm not sure we have enough data to know how time plays a factor in battery lifespans, since the oldest mainstream Teslas are only 9 years old right now. But Tesloop has been pretty transparent with their costs and maintenance. They've got a handful of Teslas with over 300k miles, and they typically get about 200-400k miles out of a battery pack:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers

Here's the cost breakdown for the entire life of 2 of their Teslas and 2 of their standard ICE counterparts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HqBIOtNsYPalG51nAw_nubgskv4TQPGx8WhPZO4a_U8/edit#gid=0

I'd say that most ICE powered vehicles will need extensive engine and/or transmission work during a similar timeframe too so large maintenance/replacement costs over 300-500k miles of ownership aren't something that is isolated to EVs.

Also, in the Prius/Insight communities, there are lots of owners that DIY replacement of individual battery cells and keep driving on for a fraction of the cost of replacing the entire battery. You can often find individual battery cells for under $50/piece.

Thanks for the info.  I thought the fuel savings would be more between a Tesla and a 20mpg Lincoln.  Considering that I think you could get a comparable ICE car for $30k compared to a Model S, the fuel savings need to be tremendous.

Well Tesloop is located in CA and their cost to "fuel" the Tesla was estimated at $0.26/kwh. The national average price is around $0.13/kwh so you could probably cut the cost to "fuel" the Tesla in half in most places.

And their assumption with the ICE sedan was based on an estimate of $3/gal which is nowhere near what it would cost in the same CA environment that they operate their Teslas in (CA is currently $3.92/gal average for regular unleaded per AAA).

So the cost to fuel the ICE in the same situation as the Tesla would be  about 30% higher than their estimate using current pricing. OR, if the comparison were done outside of CA, with more reasonable electric rates, then the cost to "fuel" the EV would be quite a bit lower.

The difference in purchase price is still a big deal, but it's not as bad as their comparison makes it out to be because most people pay a lot less for electricity, and their fueling costs for the ICE were based on estimates that aren't realistic in that environment. It's not really apples to apples.

Ichabod

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #36 on: April 07, 2021, 10:57:52 AM »
Well designed EVs like those from Hyundai, Kia and Tesla all have active battery thermal management and these batteries last a long long time. Early Nissan Leafs didn't and get much worse degradation-

So they don't need to be replaced after 7-9 yrs?  I'm not refuting this, I actually want to know.  Do you have a link?
I have a 2013 Nissan Leaf. Advertised range was 84 miles. I still get 70+ miles. It was 2010-2012 Leafs that had the quickly degrading batteries. 2013 and later still have passive cooling, but the system is better designed.

Your replacement needs are going to depend entirely on your driving. If you're driving 80 highway miles a day and can't charge away from home, a small decrease in capacity is ruinous, and that kind of usage will likely degrade the batter more quickly. On the other hand, if you're driving 30 miles a day, I don't think we have a great idea of how long the battery will last. At least 10 years?

Really, EVs are economical and practical for 80% of current use cases (with the big caveat that you need a place to charge it). But people are willing to pay a big premium for that last 20% of use cases. That's why people buy trucks for that annual trip to the lake or the Suburban when they need to pick up the family from the airport.

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #37 on: April 07, 2021, 10:59:36 AM »

I'm not sure we have enough data to know how time plays a factor in battery lifespans, since the oldest mainstream Teslas are only 9 years old right now. But Tesloop has been pretty transparent with their costs and maintenance. They've got a handful of Teslas with over 300k miles, and they typically get about 200-400k miles out of a battery pack:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers

Here's the cost breakdown for the entire life of 2 of their Teslas and 2 of their standard ICE counterparts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HqBIOtNsYPalG51nAw_nubgskv4TQPGx8WhPZO4a_U8/edit#gid=0

I'd say that most ICE powered vehicles will need extensive engine and/or transmission work during a similar timeframe too so large maintenance/replacement costs over 300-500k miles of ownership aren't something that is isolated to EVs.

Also, in the Prius/Insight communities, there are lots of owners that DIY replacement of individual battery cells and keep driving on for a fraction of the cost of replacing the entire battery. You can often find individual battery cells for under $50/piece.

Thanks for the info.  I thought the fuel savings would be more between a Tesla and a 20mpg Lincoln.  Considering that I think you could get a comparable ICE car for $30k compared to a Model S, the fuel savings need to be tremendous.

Well Tesloop is located in CA and their cost to "fuel" the Tesla was estimated at $0.26/kwh. The national average price is around $0.13/kwh so you could probably cut the cost to "fuel" the Tesla in half in most places.

And their assumption with the ICE sedan was based on an estimate of $3/gal which is nowhere near what it would cost in the same CA environment that they operate their Teslas in (CA is currently $3.92/gal average for regular unleaded per AAA).

So the cost to fuel the ICE in the same situation as the Tesla would be  about 30% higher than their estimate using current pricing. OR, if the comparison were done outside of CA, with more reasonable electric rates, then the cost to "fuel" the EV would be quite a bit lower.

The difference in purchase price is still a big deal, but it's not as bad as their comparison makes it out to be because most people pay a lot less for electricity, and their fueling costs for the ICE were based on estimates that aren't realistic in that environment. It's not really apples to apples.

I believe 26c/kwh is supercharger pricing.  I pay around 17c in NJ, and when I get around to changing to a time-of-use power plan I will charge off peak at 6-7c / kwh, so less than two cents a mile in power.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #38 on: April 07, 2021, 11:30:47 AM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

A Camry is much bigger than a Model 3.  A Civic is probably a better comparison.  So $20k compared to $35k purchase price.  You better be getting a lot of fuel savings.  The opportunity cost of having an extra $15k equity stuck in a vehicle is around $750/yr alone.  Which is more than I would pay for gas each year driving a Civic.

It's not just size that matters for comparison. Tesla markets themselves and prices their products as a Premium/Luxury brand. You can argue the merits of that, but a BMW 3 series is a much better comparison to a Model 3 than a Civic is. They're nearly identical in size, offer both RWD and AWD, and have similar features/tech and driving focus. Your average Model 3 buyer is a lot more like the average BMW 3 series buyer than the average Civic buyer. Model 3 vs BMW 3 series pricing is very close, and probably favorable to the Tesla in most cases. The mid-size luxury sedan market has been a bloodbath in recent years because of the Model 3 success. I'm no Tesla fan, but they're sucking up market share in that space for a reason.

As for price gaps between EVs and similar ICE vehicles, compare what a Chevy Bolt is selling for vs a similar ICE hatchback. I'm seeing a lot of brand new Bolts being offered below $20k when they had MSRP of $38k. A Bolt that sells for $20-25k compares really well to an ICE hatchback that starts at $18k, especially if you try to get them equipped in a similar way.

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #39 on: April 07, 2021, 11:51:48 AM »
On the other hand, if you're driving 30 miles a day, I don't think we have a great idea of how long the battery will last. At least 10 years?

Sure we do, EVs have been around since 2011 (Leaf). Plenty of data to say batteries will last as least as long as X years and Y miles. Those two variables are improving every year.

And the manufacturers warranty them for 8-10 years and 100K miles. Those batteries aren't failing immediately after the warranty ends. Bad PR if they did.

Buy a 250 mile EV and drive it 30 miles a day. Even if the range falls 50%, you still have 125 miles of range. The warranties usually state that if the battery capacity dips below a certain threshold during the warranty period, it'll be replaced or repaired. Some of these waranty thresholds are in the 75% range.

So, in 10 years or 100K miles, the manufacturer is guaranteeing that the battery will still have 187.5 miles left in it at 100% charge. Still plenty to accomplish a 30 mile daily use.

As mentioned an above comment about Teslas - Tesloop has shown that the battery degradation is not linear, at least in Teslas. I've seen graphs on the Leaf and the curve is different but not completely different.

wageslave23

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #40 on: April 07, 2021, 12:53:43 PM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

A Camry is much bigger than a Model 3.  A Civic is probably a better comparison.  So $20k compared to $35k purchase price.  You better be getting a lot of fuel savings.  The opportunity cost of having an extra $15k equity stuck in a vehicle is around $750/yr alone.  Which is more than I would pay for gas each year driving a Civic.

Have you priced a Civic with premium audio, leather, auto LED headlights, auto wipers, heated front/rear seats, and AWD?

I'm talking about mustachians like myself who probably aren't worried about all that extra garbage.

wageslave23

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #41 on: April 07, 2021, 12:56:39 PM »

I'm not sure we have enough data to know how time plays a factor in battery lifespans, since the oldest mainstream Teslas are only 9 years old right now. But Tesloop has been pretty transparent with their costs and maintenance. They've got a handful of Teslas with over 300k miles, and they typically get about 200-400k miles out of a battery pack:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers

Here's the cost breakdown for the entire life of 2 of their Teslas and 2 of their standard ICE counterparts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HqBIOtNsYPalG51nAw_nubgskv4TQPGx8WhPZO4a_U8/edit#gid=0

I'd say that most ICE powered vehicles will need extensive engine and/or transmission work during a similar timeframe too so large maintenance/replacement costs over 300-500k miles of ownership aren't something that is isolated to EVs.

Also, in the Prius/Insight communities, there are lots of owners that DIY replacement of individual battery cells and keep driving on for a fraction of the cost of replacing the entire battery. You can often find individual battery cells for under $50/piece.

Thanks for the info.  I thought the fuel savings would be more between a Tesla and a 20mpg Lincoln.  Considering that I think you could get a comparable ICE car for $30k compared to a Model S, the fuel savings need to be tremendous.

Well Tesloop is located in CA and their cost to "fuel" the Tesla was estimated at $0.26/kwh. The national average price is around $0.13/kwh so you could probably cut the cost to "fuel" the Tesla in half in most places.

And their assumption with the ICE sedan was based on an estimate of $3/gal which is nowhere near what it would cost in the same CA environment that they operate their Teslas in (CA is currently $3.92/gal average for regular unleaded per AAA).

So the cost to fuel the ICE in the same situation as the Tesla would be  about 30% higher than their estimate using current pricing. OR, if the comparison were done outside of CA, with more reasonable electric rates, then the cost to "fuel" the EV would be quite a bit lower.

The difference in purchase price is still a big deal, but it's not as bad as their comparison makes it out to be because most people pay a lot less for electricity, and their fueling costs for the ICE were based on estimates that aren't realistic in that environment. It's not really apples to apples.

That makes more sense.  You would think tesla would be smart enough to make that adjustment so it is apples to apples.

wageslave23

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #42 on: April 07, 2021, 12:59:42 PM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

A Camry is much bigger than a Model 3.  A Civic is probably a better comparison.  So $20k compared to $35k purchase price.  You better be getting a lot of fuel savings.  The opportunity cost of having an extra $15k equity stuck in a vehicle is around $750/yr alone.  Which is more than I would pay for gas each year driving a Civic.

It's not just size that matters for comparison. Tesla markets themselves and prices their products as a Premium/Luxury brand. You can argue the merits of that, but a BMW 3 series is a much better comparison to a Model 3 than a Civic is. They're nearly identical in size, offer both RWD and AWD, and have similar features/tech and driving focus. Your average Model 3 buyer is a lot more like the average BMW 3 series buyer than the average Civic buyer. Model 3 vs BMW 3 series pricing is very close, and probably favorable to the Tesla in most cases. The mid-size luxury sedan market has been a bloodbath in recent years because of the Model 3 success. I'm no Tesla fan, but they're sucking up market share in that space for a reason.

As for price gaps between EVs and similar ICE vehicles, compare what a Chevy Bolt is selling for vs a similar ICE hatchback. I'm seeing a lot of brand new Bolts being offered below $20k when they had MSRP of $38k. A Bolt that sells for $20-25k compares really well to an ICE hatchback that starts at $18k, especially if you try to get them equipped in a similar way.

That is probably a better comparison.  I didn't think you could get bolts for $20k.  If the batteries do last the life of a typical ICE vehicle then it's probably more than worth it

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #43 on: April 07, 2021, 01:19:49 PM »
No they don't.  https://www.wheelsjoint.com/toyota-camry-vs-tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-after-5-years/

LOL what BS in that link.

First, they breakdown the total costs on the Camry but suspiciously don't on the Tesla.

They do mention depreciation on the Camry, $17,751 but claim they don't really have figures on the model 3 and use 34%, which is $15,055...a much lower figure of depreciation % than they used on the Camry.

A Camry is much bigger than a Model 3.  A Civic is probably a better comparison.  So $20k compared to $35k purchase price.  You better be getting a lot of fuel savings.  The opportunity cost of having an extra $15k equity stuck in a vehicle is around $750/yr alone.  Which is more than I would pay for gas each year driving a Civic.

Have you priced a Civic with premium audio, leather, auto LED headlights, auto wipers, heated front/rear seats, and AWD?

I'm talking about mustachians like myself who probably aren't worried about all that extra garbage.

In that case, your comparison is invalid because you're not comparing equivalents, or even competitors.

Just Joe

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #44 on: April 07, 2021, 01:42:18 PM »
That is probably a better comparison.  I didn't think you could get bolts for $20k.  If the batteries do last the life of a typical ICE vehicle then it's probably more than worth it

Just for easy window shopping look at Autotrader and CarMax as examples. Folks say CarMax is expensive so know that if true, you can probably beat that price.

We bought a CarMax car several years ago, self financed and it was a very competitive price and trouble free since then (45K->105K miles) now. They had the best price at that time and place compared to other potential sources si I don't agree that CarMax is automatically more expensive than other sources.

You might be surprised at what is available used and how few miles a used vehicle can have. Who turns in a car with 10K miles? - but people do.

I did the footwork for my employer to buy a Nissan Leaf with ~10K miles for ~$20K from CarMax. Car was and is like new.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 01:44:43 PM by Just Joe »

scottish

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #45 on: April 07, 2021, 03:13:50 PM »
I predict hydrogen fuel cells will replace batteries by 2030.     Instead of Tesla super chargers, we'll be seeing hydrogen fuel at the pumps.

JLee

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #46 on: April 07, 2021, 03:23:35 PM »
I predict hydrogen fuel cells will replace batteries by 2030.     Instead of Tesla super chargers, we'll be seeing hydrogen fuel at the pumps.

I don't agree -- running power to new locations is not free, but neither is replacing gasoline storage tanks with high pressure tanks and hauling hydrogen all over the place.  Electricity's simplicity is quite lovely - nearly no moving parts involved in charging stations, not much to go wrong, no spills to worry about, no tanks to build/store, no fuel to transport, and the infrastructure for it already exists nationwide.

Ichabod

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #47 on: April 07, 2021, 03:49:29 PM »
Sure we do, EVs have been around since 2011 (Leaf). Plenty of data to say batteries will last as least as long as X years and Y miles. Those two variables are improving every year.

I'm not a skeptic. I have a 2013 Leaf and have lost less than 10% capacity. I would add many/most of the 2011/2012 Leafs don't have their original batteries. But I suspect battery degradation isn't linear, so do we know if my battery will last for 2 more years or 20?

Now, I'm well aware that a vision of small PEVs/shared cars/mass transit for 9X% of personal transportation is a pipe dream in this country and many others, at least for the next 50 years if not more, but I thought I would throw it out there as food for thought - this is the MMM forum, after all.
I agree with this, and it requires land-use reform, and I'm mildly optimistic about it. There's been some progress over the last few years with California (one of the worst offenders at the local level) making it easier to build housing at the state level.

nath

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #48 on: April 07, 2021, 03:50:22 PM »
Main problem with EVs as I see it,

The energy required to manufacture an EV is worse than petrol cars. The batteries are mined in one part of the world using dirty energy and shipped to the other side of the world for manufacturing. Then the cars are shipped around on massive oil tankers. There is nothing ‘green’ going on here.

The charging is inconvenient unless you have a garage with a fast charger at home. Millions of people live in apartments or houses with street parking.

The charging is slow.   Who wants to wait 30mins to 5 hours to get enough electricity to take you where you need to go? It’s slowing the world down.

The electricity coming out of the plug is usually not green at all.  In Australia it is burnt coal. In other countries even worse.

The cars are dynamically not very good, much Heavier than normal cars which is not good for handling,  unless a Porsche Taycan which is wildly expensive.

Popular affordable brands like Tesla have very limited model ranges limiting appeal

The owners of EVs are too quirky for me.

Result? I will stick to petrol and diesel cars as long as possible.



RWD

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Re: Predict the future development path of EVs!
« Reply #49 on: April 07, 2021, 03:58:56 PM »
I predict hydrogen fuel cells will replace batteries by 2030.     Instead of Tesla super chargers, we'll be seeing hydrogen fuel at the pumps.

They haven't particularly caught on in the last three decades so I really doubt it will in the next either. It has numerous problems (some of which are mentioned above by JLee) and the automotive industry is already leaning heavily into BEVs.