Author Topic: Pre-Fire Questions  (Read 5465 times)

justvisitedyesterday

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Pre-Fire Questions
« on: March 13, 2017, 10:41:48 AM »
I read "your money or your life" 20 years ago and started saving and now I'm here...I'm FIREing while my wife still wants to work, which is fine.  I'm 42, wife is 41, w/ 1 child (6).  I'm comfortable with our total savings, expenses and the basics of the 4% withdrawal but am just playing with the details.

1. How do you budget for major appliance replacement?  I've been basically doing a simple amortization.  Example: fridge + washer + dryer = ($1000/10 yrs) + ($750/10 yrs) + ($500/10 yrs) = $225/yr.

2. How do you budget for large or infrequent ticket items like a car, roof, medical emergency, nursing home, house remodel, etc?  Amortize that similarly, just absorb in your annual budget, just absorb as a reduction in your large capital pool, etc?

3. When you calculate your 4% withdrawal rate, is it based on what you have each year total or based on what you had when you FIRED, i.e. 4% of $1,000,000 fixed at all times (if that's your number) or 4% of $1,100,000 one year and $900,000 another year, as the market fluctuates?

4. If I have $1,000,000 and 50% is in taxable accounts and 50% in retirement accounts, I assume it's still okay to withdrawal the 4% of the total from the taxable accounts only until I reach an age to begin withdrawing retirement?  The taxable would get drawn down as if I was withdrawing 8%, but it should all equal out over 40 years, right?

5. How should I withdraw the money?  Stop reinvesting dividends (2-3%) and then sell off the remainder as needed?  Sell off equally among assets or do it basically to rebalance back to my % targets?

6. If I have a chunk of cash coming back to me that I don't need as cash for the long-term, would you invest it all right now?  Dollar cost average?  Wait until a downtown?

Anything else?

« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 03:51:11 PM by justvisitedyesterday »

Vindicated

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2017, 11:28:10 AM »
Congrats on making it to the brink of FIRE!

I don't have any advice, but I'll happily follow to see what great advice you get from the Masters of Mustachianism.

Spork

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2017, 11:56:02 AM »
I don't know if I am typical.  We're only a couple of years into FIRE.  And they've been financially weird for us.  My answers may or may not apply.

1. We don't.  They only appliance we've bought in the last 5 years was a dishwasher.  It went into the accounting as a direct expense.  Refrigerators are (usually) pretty bullet proof.  I still have the first one I bought (about 1990) and it still works fine.  You might end up wanting one for efficiency or aesthetics.... but normally they work forever.  Our stove is from 1951 and I think it will be working when I die.  I am less confident on washer/dryer... but if they die, I will buy another and chalk it as a one time expense.  No amortization/depreciation.

2.  Cars are the only thing I apply any depreciation/amortization to.  I can't decide to sell my roof.  I can sell my car.  So I keep it on the books at it's current value and flatten out the initial purchase price by taking a yearly depreciation expense.  Cars are expensive and to some degree optional.  We have 3 cars for 2 people.  We could certainly get by with fewer.  Depreciating lets me track the full expense of the cars for future buying/selling decisions.

3.  I calculate it several ways.  But first off, we don't spend 4%.  We are closer to 2%.  This is both "saved too much" and to a degree "could stand to spend a little more."  I am an obsessive tracker/grapher.  I track income vs expense vs target expenditures.  I graph 2%, 3% and 4%, computed both as "of current financial assets" and computed as "inflation adjusted of original FIRE amount". 
Example:
I define "current financial assets" as being everything but house, land, cars.  It's financial assets I could get to right now.  Let's say that number is $1M.
a) I graph 2, 3 and 4% of that number as a baseline.  As that number changes daily, those lines change
b) I also graph a baseline number of the financial assets I had when we declared "FIRE".  On year 1, I graph 2, 3 and 4% of that number.  If it is $1M, 4% would be $40,000.  On year 2 I adjust that $40k according to CPI. (https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl)
These are tracking baselines.  We don't "try to spend" that amount.  Our habits are such that we're way under target.

4.  I would say yes.

5.  We stopped reinvesting dividends on anything non-taxable.  But we've also had odd financial windfalls since FIRE (death in the family/inheritance).  So... we are reworking plans. 

6.  General consensus is that you just invest it now.  We mostly follow that, but with some of our recent windfall, we have been slow to do so.  I believe that's emotional, not rational, so don't follow my lead.  We do keep a higher than average-mustacian amount of cash on hand.  I think that's mostly habit.

secondcor521

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 12:57:17 PM »
My answers (I'm a 47 year old who has been FIREd about a year now):

1.  I don't budget.  I spend reasonably and calculate my WR% by taking my last six months expenses, doubling them, then dividing by my FIRE stash (everything except house, car, kids' college funds).  As long as that is under 4% and the economy is doing OK, I'm not worried.

2.  I would absorb these as a reduction in my capital pool, except for a nursing home.  If I'm in a nursing home, I would likely consider that to be a permanent change in circumstances, and I'd evaluate how to proceed with fresh eyes.

3.  You can do it either way.  Historically and traditionally, it is 4% of your initial FIRE balance adjusted annually for inflation.  People also use the other way, which is similar to the variable percentage withdrawal, or VPW.  There are lots of other ways to do it, almost as many ways as there are people who are FIREd.  What I would recommend doing is reading more and understanding the differences between the various methods.  They will result in different survivability, different budget variability, and probably others I can't think of right now.  You should pick a method that you understand and that matches your personal financial goals.

4.  Yes, provided your taxable doesn't run out before you are able to (or decide to via such methods as the Roth pipeline or SEPP) access your tax deferred accounts.  Depending on how your taxable is invested and how close you are cutting it, this could matter a lot or not very much at all.

5.  Again, there are a wide variety of methods, but you've basically described the most popular variant.  Stop reinvesting dividends in your taxable accounts and spend those.  Withdraw what you need by selling, then rebalance - a lot of people do this once annually in January.

6.  Personally I would invest it all right now, but I am probably more bullish and risk-tolerant than average, and there's nothing wrong with DCA as long as you establish a DCA program that makes sense to you.

Good questions!

Frankies Girl

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2017, 01:42:20 PM »
FIREd just over 2 years now, early 40s with husband no kids.


1. How do you budget for major appliance replacement?  I've been basically doing a simple amortization.  Example: fridge + washer + dryer = ($1000/10 yrs) + ($750/10 yrs) + ($500/10 yrs) = $225/yr.
I don't. We have a basic budget for known expenses, and any surprise expenses (like the washer dies) will come out of our savings reserve if needed and replenished when we hit up the portfolio. We're talking under $1K on practically anything I could think of at this point so I literally don't even worry about it because it's such a small amount relative to our portfolio. If it's a larger expense like replacing a car or roof (which we just did last year) it just means we'll use more in that year. There is no set in stone spending any more other than just trying to keep our income below a certain threshold at the moment to meet the ACA subsidy limits.

And your estimates on how much appliances cost and how often you'll replace them - wow that is crazy! I buy basic stuff that hasn't got all the bells and whistles but they last for decades, and there's always good scratch and dent stuff out there for cheaper...




2. How do you budget for large or infrequent ticket items like a car, roof, medical emergency, nursing home, house remodel, etc?  Amortize that similarly, just absorb in your annual budget, just absorb as a reduction in your large capital pool, etc?
See above. Short answer: we don't budget; it just gets added into the drawdown.



3. When you calculate your 4% withdrawal rate, is it based on what you have each year total or based on what you had when you FIRED, i.e. 4% of $1,000,000 fixed at all times (if that's your number) or 4% of $1,100,000 one year and $900,000 another year, as the market fluctuates?
We set our yearly spend based off of previous year spending. We've been tracking our expenses for years now, and I can look back at pretty much anything and figure out a comfortable yearly rate with plenty of fun stuff figured in. It is in no way linked to the 4% rule or anything (just know that it is well below a 4% draw), just set a basic budget and try to include what we know might need to be replaced/repaired coming up. In good market years, we'll be okay with following that number less strictly, in down years, we know we've got some fat to cut (or reallocate the extras to things necessary to repair/replace) without too much pain.



4. If I have $1,000,000 and 50% is in taxable accounts and 50% in retirement accounts, I assume it's still okay to withdrawal the 4% of the total from the taxable accounts only until I reach an age to begin withdrawing retirement?  The taxable would get drawn down as if I was withdrawing 8%, but it should all equal out over 40 years, right?
Sounds good to me. That's the way I understood it.



5. How should I withdraw the money?  Stop reinvesting dividends (2-3%) and then sell off the remainder as needed?  Sell off equally among assets or do it basically to rebalance back to my % targets?
I take all dividends and LTCGs paid out of my taxable account (no more reinvesting) since they're being counted towards my income anyway. I have the rest covered from an inherited IRA - a small amount must be taken anyway due to required minimum distributions and then I pull a bit more to cover any gap. iIRAs require RMDs and are penalty free on any distributions but you may have to pay tax on them (and the distributions count towards income for tax purposes). The main reason I use the iIRA to fund the majority of my expenses is that right now, I'm in the sweet spot of paying zero taxes on everything anyway, and pulling out more money from there keeps its growth slower or even depletes it first (which will minimize the tax hit as I age and have to take my own IRA distributions).



6. If I have a chunk of cash coming back to me that I don't need as cash for the long-term, would you invest it all right now?  Dollar cost average?  Wait until a downtown?
If it was me, I'd likely throw it all in on any down day, but I could see the rationalization of doing some dollar cost averaging into the market over the rest of the year.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 03:24:28 PM by Frankies Girl »

financepatriot@gmail.com

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2017, 03:06:25 PM »
1.  Replace as needed, buy used.  You should roughly know your yearly spending, and presumably, this has some one time items in it already.  Therefore, keep it the same or try to lower it through efficiency.

2.  See answer above, keep your overall spending in line with prior years.  These won't all hit at once, so they should spread out over multiple years.  If you have enough assets to FIRE, you should have enough assets to fund these. 

3.  I don't do a 4% withdrawal rate.  My plan, when I fire, is to set aside two years of living expenses in a corporate bond fund.  This will be the money I use to live off of and should outlast any extended market downturn. 

4.  yes, withdraw the money from where it's most tax advantageous to do so. 

5.  Sell off whatever, reinvest in a bond fund, sell the bond fund to live.  If you have a poor performing stock you wish to sell, that might be a good first place.  Collect the dividends in cash when retired.  Transaction costs are zero when you are paid a dividend. 

6.  I would invest it all ASAP.  The market goes up 77% of all years.  Would you rather bet on 77%, or put your chips on 23%?  I'll take the 77% bet any day. 

canadian bacon

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2017, 09:15:04 PM »
Root of good does a great job of creating a budget with costs based on a service life:
http://rootofgood.com/budget-home-repairs-billion-dollar-project/

justvisitedyesterday

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2017, 07:53:06 AM »
A few other questions:

1. Do you need term life insurance if you FIRE? If we have 20 times our annual expenses in savings, I'm leaning toward dropping 25 yr $500K term life insurance policies (one for wife and one for me) and basically self-insuring.  It's about $1000/yr and if one of us dies, the other will be fine.  If both, our daughter will have a nest-egg with our friends who will take her.

2. Catastrophic house insurance?  We live in a light earthquake zone on a small river.  The last damaging earthquake was 1962, and I don't think it impacted the (brick) house.  The house has never flooded in 2 major floods in 1982 or 2011, though this year's snowpack will be another test.  Premium is $900/yr for $250K coverage with a $5K deductible.  My thinking is that is I assume a conservative number of years that it could happen (25) and multiply that times the annual premium, plus the deductible, that's $27.5K on the conservative side, which is more than an average claim of say $15-20K, so drop.  Obviously it could happen two years in a row and claims could be higher than $20K, but I'm basically self-insuring against a catastrophic and infrequent event.


RedefinedHappiness

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2017, 07:56:35 AM »
Congrats on making it to the brink of FIRE!

I don't have any advice, but I'll happily follow to see what great advice you get from the Masters of Mustachianism.

Me too!

Vindicated

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2017, 08:08:11 AM »
A few other questions:

1. Do you need term life insurance if you FIRE? If we have 20 times our annual expenses in savings, I'm leaning toward dropping 25 yr $500K term life insurance policies (one for wife and one for me) and basically self-insuring.  It's about $1000/yr and if one of us dies, the other will be fine.  If both, our daughter will have a nest-egg with our friends who will take her.

2. Catastrophic house insurance?  We live in a light earthquake zone on a small river.  The last damaging earthquake was 1962, and I don't think it impacted the (brick) house.  The house has never flooded in 2 major floods in 1982 or 2011, though this year's snowpack will be another test.  Premium is $900/yr for $250K coverage with a $5K deductible.  My thinking is that is I assume a conservative number of years that it could happen (25) and multiply that times the annual premium, plus the deductible, that's $27.5K on the conservative side, which is more than an average claim of say $15-20K, so drop.  Obviously it could happen two years in a row and claims could be higher than $20K, but I'm basically self-insuring against a catastrophic and infrequent event.

I really think you're OK "self-insuring" and dropping the life insurance.

I'd hesitate about the Earthquake insurance... is there another plan that would lower your payment?  Maybe a higher deductible, or less coverage.  What is the worst case scenario?  What would happen if your house collapsed during an Earthquake and you didn't have any insurance at all?  Could you afford to write it off and move to a new home without coming out of retirement?  If so, I'd say drop it for sure.

Spork

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2017, 09:39:28 AM »
A few other questions:

1. Do you need term life insurance if you FIRE? If we have 20 times our annual expenses in savings, I'm leaning toward dropping 25 yr $500K term life insurance policies (one for wife and one for me) and basically self-insuring.  It's about $1000/yr and if one of us dies, the other will be fine.  If both, our daughter will have a nest-egg with our friends who will take her.

2. Catastrophic house insurance?  We live in a light earthquake zone on a small river.  The last damaging earthquake was 1962, and I don't think it impacted the (brick) house.  The house has never flooded in 2 major floods in 1982 or 2011, though this year's snowpack will be another test.  Premium is $900/yr for $250K coverage with a $5K deductible.  My thinking is that is I assume a conservative number of years that it could happen (25) and multiply that times the annual premium, plus the deductible, that's $27.5K on the conservative side, which is more than an average claim of say $15-20K, so drop.  Obviously it could happen two years in a row and claims could be higher than $20K, but I'm basically self-insuring against a catastrophic and infrequent event.

1.   Well, it depends (and you seem to have already gotten the gist of it.)  The question is "What are you trying to fund with the $500k?"  For many it is "Surviving spouse gets house paid off and enough to live on" or "Child gets enough to fund their primary/teen/college years."  If you have everything funded, you don't need it.

We have no kids.  We have no life insurance.  If I were to die today, I cannot imagine how the lack of a payout will affect my wife. 

2. Naive question: How does catastrophic coverage differ from regular replacement cost home insurance.  I did some light googling here...  with mixed results.


Going back to your original question #2 on expenses...
I have a little over 20 years of expenses data.  The last 10-15 are very meticulously kept.  Before that... probably not as well kept.  But my point here is: I've gotten to a fair level of confidence what my average expenses are over time.  I've replaced roofs.  I've purchased some amount of appliances.  I've done very expensive house repairs.  I have never had a total catastrophic expense (health care, house obliterated, etc).  But, I think I have a handle on big ticket expenses by just averaging these things over time.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 10:34:31 AM by Spork »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2017, 10:25:54 AM »
1. How do you budget for major appliance replacement?  I just spit ball it. My appliances are 30yrs old and going strong with some inexpensive service. When they die I will replace them with used appliances off CL at a low cost. If I am drowning in money I might buy new fancy appliances as I've never had that.

2. How do you budget for large or infrequent ticket items like a car, roof, medical emergency, nursing home, house remodel, etc?  I have a guess of home maintenance costs in my budget. I'll see what happens and address things as they come up. I don't specifically budget for a car. Mine will last many more years and I don't need a car really so I'll just see what happens. I may buy a cheap used car. I may buy something nicer if I am drowning in money or I may just not have a car for a while. I don't budget for medical costs or care as I am in Canada. It's not that these costs can't occur, but our insurance coverage is decent and worst case when I am old I'll sell the house for my care.

3. When you calculate your 4% withdrawal rate, is it based on what you have each year total or based on what you had when you FIRED, i.e. 4% of $1,000,000 fixed at all times (if that's your number) or 4% of $1,100,000 one year and $900,000 another year, as the market fluctuates? 4% of what I fired with. Now if I FIRE with $800K and one day I end up at $1.6M in inflation adjusted investment value I may change my 4% target. I also look at the 4% as a guide. I may in fact take out 3% one year and 6% the next. I don't need the exact same amount of $$ each year and I'd rather pull less out during a crash and more out during a rally.

4. If I have $1,000,000 and 50% is in taxable accounts and 50% in retirement accounts, I assume it's still okay to withdrawal the 4% of the total from the taxable accounts only until I reach an age to begin withdrawing retirement? Yes. In Canada it makes sense to hit the retirement accounts first as there is no penalty and the mandatory withdrawal at age 71 can be a tax problem if you don't, but either way your money is your money and you can take 4% from whatever accounts make the most sense.

5. How should I withdraw the money?  Stop reinvesting dividends (2-3%) and then sell off the remainder as needed?  Sell off equally among assets or do it basically to rebalance back to my % targets? Pulling out dividends and selling to rebalance for the rest of your 4% seems reasonable.

6. If I have a chunk of cash coming back to me that I don't need as cash for the long-term, would you invest it all right now?  Dollar cost average?  Wait until a downtown? I would invest it.

Eric

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2017, 10:42:57 AM »
4.  Yes, provided your taxable doesn't run out before you are able to (or decide to via such methods as the Roth pipeline or SEPP) access your tax deferred accounts.  Depending on how your taxable is invested and how close you are cutting it, this could matter a lot or not very much at all.

To add on to this, if you're pulling only from your taxable accounts, your actual tax bill is going to be nil.  Make sure you start Roth conversions even if you have no intention of using them to fund your living expenses anytime soon.  At the minimum, convert your amount of standard deduction + personal exemption, because then this is tax free forever.

Also consider doing some tax gain harvesting if you have remaining space in the 15% bracket after the Roth conversions and your living expenses. 


EDIT -- crap, I just realized that you said your wife is still working, so this may not apply until she quits as well.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 10:45:22 AM by Eric »

MrsPete

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2017, 02:36:24 PM »
1. How do you budget for major appliance replacement?  I've been basically doing a simple amortization.  Example: fridge + washer + dryer = ($1000/10 yrs) + ($750/10 yrs) + ($500/10 yrs) = $225/yr.

2. How do you budget for large or infrequent ticket items like a car, roof, medical emergency, nursing home, house remodel, etc?  Amortize that similarly, just absorb in your annual budget, just absorb as a reduction in your large capital pool, etc?
I was just thinking about this topic yesterday. 

Right now we have an account that we consider our "Short Term Savings Account".  A portion of my paycheck goes directly into this account every month, and we use it for big, non-recurring expenses.  For example, we use this for vacations, household repairs (which would include new appliances or a new roof).  This account is not for expected costs like Christmas presents or our yearly insurance bill, and our rule is that we cannot access this money without talking about it together first. 

Once we retire, we'll still occasionally need to replace a water heater or buy a new car ... and we'll want it to be available for travel ... so I expect we'll keep this account.  We'll have to agree up on how much to put in each month, but it's a system that's worked for us for years. 

justvisitedyesterday

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2017, 08:57:52 PM »
 
2. Naive question: How does catastrophic coverage differ from regular replacement cost home insurance.  I did some light googling here...  with mixed results.

Regular homeowners insurance won't cover either on a basic policy.  You either buy through your homeowners, feds or on private market.  We have a brick facade, so earthquake insurance is more expensive than other exterior types (cracks and falls easily I guess).  Flood insurance is a pass-through with main company through the federal flood insurance program.  I buy through a company called Trustco that is underwritten by Llloyd's of London, which was cheaper and covers earthquake, flood, and landslide.



Spork

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2017, 09:02:22 AM »
 
2. Naive question: How does catastrophic coverage differ from regular replacement cost home insurance.  I did some light googling here...  with mixed results.

Regular homeowners insurance won't cover either on a basic policy.  You either buy through your homeowners, feds or on private market.  We have a brick facade, so earthquake insurance is more expensive than other exterior types (cracks and falls easily I guess).  Flood insurance is a pass-through with main company through the federal flood insurance program.  I buy through a company called Trustco that is underwritten by Llloyd's of London, which was cheaper and covers earthquake, flood, and landslide.

Interesting.  I have never lived in an earthquake zone nor a flood plain.  My (again possibly naive) assumption is that I don't need catastrophic coverage. 

If a tornado flattens my house... is that "catastrophic".  What about a fire? 

justvisitedyesterday

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2017, 02:24:16 PM »
Fire coverage is standard.  I would look at your policy on tornadoes.  Water coverage is highly variable - sewer back-up sometimes requires an add-on; flood generally not without an add-on; mold depends; water damage from a pipe leak would generally be covered, but maybe not if water was driven into the home by horizontal strong winds...

justvisitedyesterday

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2017, 08:42:31 AM »
Thanks to everyone for your comments and help!  Firing in June...

teamzissou00

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2017, 09:12:38 AM »
Just curious, if you're willing to share, what your annual expenses are, and what your FIRE number was.

retired?

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Re: Pre-Fire Questions
« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2017, 12:21:23 AM »
RE #4.  Let's suppose you are 59.5 (or whatever age you need to be so retirement account withdrawals are not penalized), and neither of you are working.

I've been of the mind that I should prefer to take evenly from taxable and retirement to make my taxable income level steady and (assuming I can't forecast changes in tax code) also the tax paid.  To take a somewhat extreme example, I wouldn't want to:

Year 1 - $0 from taxable and $100k from retirment
Year 2 - $100k from taxable and $0 from retirment

Net total tax will be larger than doing 50k from each both years.  Am I missing something?  Or was the advice based on the OP being 42?