Author Topic: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?  (Read 30326 times)

Psychstache

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #50 on: March 28, 2020, 09:03:00 AM »
I doubt we will see any long-term societal level behavior change. There will be some who choose to shift their habits, but most will be back to business as usual. It's like the old adage about a near-death experience changing you forever...for about 8 weeks.

I do agree with the increase in birth and divorce rate though.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #51 on: March 28, 2020, 09:18:49 AM »
.....

[/quote]
+1

I'm from but have lived outside the US mostly since the late 90s. The US response to 9/11 began to fatally weaken our international credibility. 2008 illustrated our financial leadership was untrustworthy. The 2016 election showed that enough of us were were greedy, racist idiots that our 'democratic system', excuse for numerous conflicts begun elsewhere, is unreliable.

Our delayed response to this inevitable pandemic will hamstring the US for a generation, domestically and internationally.

Also, this is a good read from MIT. Life will not "go back to normal" in a couple of weeks or months https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
[/quote]

Good article, thanks.  It points out that surveillance of the population will continue and become our new normal.  Public health will be the reason, and goodbye civil rights.

NAVRESLDO

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #52 on: March 28, 2020, 09:21:56 AM »
I would add that the world of sports is ripe for a change.  People may recognize that it is not an important part of their lives, they may not be as comfortable with large gatherings and the economics of big sports will shift. 

Sibley

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #53 on: March 28, 2020, 10:01:18 AM »
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.

Fru-Gal

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #54 on: March 28, 2020, 10:18:35 AM »
I would really hope that the environmental improvements would stick around after this but not sure why they would. However as many have observed it has felt like we were at the peak of global travel for a while now. Even a few years ago I began wondering about the conference industry. It did not used to be the case that every company or organization had a conference or three.

Predictions for US:
Fewer & smaller cruise ships
Generational swing away from air travel
More train travel
More local government transparency with Zoom-type broadcast of all public meetings
More local democracy-related tech tools
More biking
More downtowns closed to cars
Widespread mask-wearing
Arabic eye makeup gaining popularity
Less conference business
Invention of new conferencing and telework tools inspired by massive online gaming systems and controllers
More population surveillance for pandemic control
Less exotic travel
More state and county border control
More home cooking
More live streaming
Facetiming the new normal phone call
More instant test results and ability to prove to others via smart phone or certificate that one is disease-free
More work from home
Better mental health for a generation
Better physical health for a generation
Massive drop in school shootings for a generation
More public health study
More interest in math
More saving and disaster prepping
More neighborhood and local focus

I'd like to think auto sales would go down but not sure why. If fewer are commuting, that could be one reason.



Ryo

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #55 on: March 28, 2020, 10:19:27 AM »
How public transportation will fare will be an interesting question. In Asia and Europe particularly, but also in places like NY, trains and subways are essential.  An increase in wfh might reduce passenger load somewhat, but there will still be many needing to commute.  But will people still be ok with being in a packed train with hundreds of strangers?  Is there a viable alternative? The roads certainly won't be able to handle everyone suddenly trying to commute in cars, and the distances involved will make bicycles unfeasible for many.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 10:21:02 AM by Ryo »

LWYRUP

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #56 on: March 28, 2020, 10:21:24 AM »
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.

Unlikely, I think.  The only two other real competitors would be the EU and China.  There's not really evidence that the EU on a whole has been handling this a whole lot better.  Some places in the EU have been more responsible than others, but you could say the same about US states.  Ditto China.  I've seen too many horrifying videos of China (check out PhD Parody on Twitter or the video archive at archive.nothingburger.today) to believe for one second that everything in China is as the CCP says it is.

I think a lot of people on this forum are misperceiving things due to their hatred of Trump.  The reality is there have been an enormous amount of screw ups from various actors (WHO, CDC, EU, major news outlets for not covering human rights abuses in China, wall street for not reacting to obvious news in February).  My county in the USA has been locked down for two weeks (and I've been self-isolating for longer) and we have fewer cases per capita than Sweden or London where folks have been much slower to respond.  Remember it was the UK that came up with the "do nothing herd immunity" plan and it was the Mexican President just a few days ago told everyone to live their lives like normal, etc.  There are also issues in many, many countries with testing (inc. some places where it is purposefully to being done to make the party in power look good) and misclassification of deaths.  This list includes first world countries such as Germany and Spain. 

I am not saying Trump is great or the US has done a good job.  I just think you are misperceiving how equally shitty of a job many other paces have done, and you are probably erroneously relying on the official statistics of confirmed cases and deaths even though there are systemic issues with undercounting almost everywhere.  Whether left-wing or right-wing, I find it useful to get my news from international sources and not just US-centric left wing or US-centric right wing forums.  USA response has been middle of the road compared to some of the more proactive places and some of the less proactive ones. 

EU / China / Japan / Russia also have issues with age structure due to many years of depressed birth rates and lower immigration.  So notice in the financial world the flight to safety to U.S. treasuries has continued despite our many, obvious mistakes.  Economics is really a dismal science and everywhere has problems. 

bridget

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #57 on: March 28, 2020, 10:21:32 AM »
Here are the things I personally plan on changing forever, and hope they turn into societal trends that bake into us during this time.

- Being much more vigilant about washing my hands really frequently. Before I was the standard after bathroom/before eating person, on autopilot. Now I wash my hands most times I pass a sink for any reason, count to 30, and pay attention to scrubbing every part of my hand. I keep my fingernails short to make it easier to keep them clean.

- Being vigilant about not touching my face - not something I paid attention to before.

- Getting my flu shot every. year. I've always been on board with them and got it most years, but it was occasionally inconvenient so didn't get around to it. The talk about how many people die per year from the flu doesn't make me less concerned about coronavirus, it makes me more concerned about seasonal flu.

- Giving blood every 8 weeks like clockwork.

- Insisting on working from home anytime I have any symptoms of anything. No more giving into pressure to be at the office while "getting over" a cold and still sniffly. I will see you when it is 100% over. This one particularly I hope sticks as a societal norm; you are not being brave or a good worker by coming into work sick. And now everybody has the infrastructure to work from home, so we should use it for this more often.

- Keeping more pantry products/nonperishables on hand (was pretty good about this before but could improve)

- Keeping more of a cash cushion, because it's clear almost anybody could be laid off without warning, and I don't want to have to sell at a loss

OtherJen

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #58 on: March 28, 2020, 10:24:51 AM »
How public transportation will fare will be an interesting question. In Asia and Europe particularly, but also in places like NY, trains and subways are essential.  An increase in wfh might reduce passenger load somewhat, but there will still be many needing to commute.  But will people still be ok with being in a packed train with hundreds of strangers?  Is there a viable alternative? The roads certainly won't be able to handle everyone suddenly trying to commute in cars, and the distances involved will make bicycles unfeasible for many.

An increase in remote work would alleviate some of the burden on public transportation and roads. Hopefully, employers will be more inclined to give their employees the choice of working at home, if possible.

OtherJen

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #59 on: March 28, 2020, 10:28:42 AM »
- Insisting on working from home anytime I have any symptoms of anything. No more giving into pressure to be at the office while "getting over" a cold and still sniffly. I will see you when it is 100% over. This one particularly I hope sticks as a societal norm; you are not being brave or a good worker by coming into work sick. And now everybody has the infrastructure to work from home, so we should use it for this more often.

Yes. I shudder to think of the times that I let myself be bullied into working with a fever and hacking cough, including during the H1N1 outbreak 10 years ago, when my boss at the time started harassing me to come back in after one sick day (bonus: after listening to me hack up a lung outside his office all day, he never again questioned me about sick days). Working while sick doesn't make you a hero. It makes you an asshole if you have the choice to stay home, or it makes your boss an asshole if you don't.

maizeman

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #60 on: March 28, 2020, 10:29:05 AM »
Arabic eye makeup gaining popularity

This is so far outside my area I just have to ask.

What makes a kind eye makeup distinctly arabic and why do you think it's popularity will increase during/after coronavirus, @Fru-Gal ?

Hotstreak

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #61 on: March 28, 2020, 10:45:36 AM »
I am curious to see what happens with the gym.  I, and many other people, purchased exercise equipment when the gym shut down.  Will these people continue with home workouts and cancel their memberships?  Personally I will go to the gym for certain things, and keep doing other exercise at home.

Fru-Gal

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #62 on: March 28, 2020, 10:49:24 AM »
Quote
This is so far outside my area I just have to ask.

What makes a kind eye makeup distinctly arabic and why do you think it's popularity will increase during/after coronavirus, @Fru-Gal ?

Arabic eye makeup is very beautiful and detailed with the entire focus on eyes and eyebrows because most of the face is covered with a scarf. The scarves are colorful and part of a coordinated head-to-toe fashion statement.

Changes in makeup are common in times of economic uncertainty, and makeup artist ingenuity quite high.

It's also likely that the reverse will be true with a trend toward natural or no makeup. However, if mask wearing becomes commonplace, focusing on just eye makeup will save a lot of time.

Also, beauty is a major source of social power that women wield over both sexes, for those who think it only frivolous. It's also a major industry.

Permanent eyebrow and eyeliner may become even more popular, just as false lashes and lash serums have. It's possible that colored contact wearing would increase.

Plastic surgery might decrease if mask wearing became popular enough, along with fear of infection and less disposable income.

Finally, masks themselves might be an area of innovation. Technology built in? Fashion choices? Filter and oxygen (or other gas LOL like vaping) choices?

Sibley

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #63 on: March 28, 2020, 10:58:52 AM »
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.

Unlikely, I think.  The only two other real competitors would be the EU and China.  There's not really evidence that the EU on a whole has been handling this a whole lot better.  Some places in the EU have been more responsible than others, but you could say the same about US states.  Ditto China.  I've seen too many horrifying videos of China (check out PhD Parody on Twitter or the video archive at archive.nothingburger.today) to believe for one second that everything in China is as the CCP says it is.

I think a lot of people on this forum are misperceiving things due to their hatred of Trump.  The reality is there have been an enormous amount of screw ups from various actors (WHO, CDC, EU, major news outlets for not covering human rights abuses in China, wall street for not reacting to obvious news in February).  My county in the USA has been locked down for two weeks (and I've been self-isolating for longer) and we have fewer cases per capita than Sweden or London where folks have been much slower to respond.  Remember it was the UK that came up with the "do nothing herd immunity" plan and it was the Mexican President just a few days ago told everyone to live their lives like normal, etc.  There are also issues in many, many countries with testing (inc. some places where it is purposefully to being done to make the party in power look good) and misclassification of deaths.  This list includes first world countries such as Germany and Spain. 

I am not saying Trump is great or the US has done a good job.  I just think you are misperceiving how equally shitty of a job many other paces have done, and you are probably erroneously relying on the official statistics of confirmed cases and deaths even though there are systemic issues with undercounting almost everywhere.  Whether left-wing or right-wing, I find it useful to get my news from international sources and not just US-centric left wing or US-centric right wing forums.  USA response has been middle of the road compared to some of the more proactive places and some of the less proactive ones. 

EU / China / Japan / Russia also have issues with age structure due to many years of depressed birth rates and lower immigration.  So notice in the financial world the flight to safety to U.S. treasuries has continued despite our many, obvious mistakes.  Economics is really a dismal science and everywhere has problems.

We'll see. We're not through corona yet, we've barely begun. I'm certainly not a political science junky, I avoid the news until it's time for me to vote, then I do a bunch of research on candidates, platforms, etc. 

maizeman

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #64 on: March 28, 2020, 11:23:11 AM »
Quote
This is so far outside my area I just have to ask.

What makes a kind eye makeup distinctly arabic and why do you think it's popularity will increase during/after coronavirus, @Fru-Gal ?

Arabic eye makeup is very beautiful and detailed with the entire focus on eyes and eyebrows because most of the face is covered with a scarf. The scarves are colorful and part of a coordinated head-to-toe fashion statement.

Changes in makeup are common in times of economic uncertainty, and makeup artist ingenuity quite high.

It's also likely that the reverse will be true with a trend toward natural or no makeup. However, if mask wearing becomes commonplace, focusing on just eye makeup will save a lot of time.

Also, beauty is a major source of social power that women wield over both sexes, for those who think it only frivolous. It's also a major industry.

Permanent eyebrow and eyeliner may become even more popular, just as false lashes and lash serums have. It's possible that colored contact wearing would increase.

Plastic surgery might decrease if mask wearing became popular enough, along with fear of infection and less disposable income.

Finally, masks themselves might be an area of innovation. Technology built in? Fashion choices? Filter and oxygen (or other gas LOL like vaping) choices?

Very cool. Would have not have occurred to me, but now that you explain it, it makes complete sense there would be more focus on more elaborate makeup of just the eyes in a culture where most of the face is hidden, whether by niqabs or surgical masks.

Looking at japan, where wearing face masks has been socially acceptable for some time now (and in fact there is a social expectation to wear them when you are sick or might be sick), there definitely is a pretty broad range of fashion diversity available.

Thanks!
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 12:26:26 PM by maizeman »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #65 on: March 28, 2020, 12:10:42 PM »
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.

Unlikely, I think.  The only two other real competitors would be the EU and China.  There's not really evidence that the EU on a whole has been handling this a whole lot better.  Some places in the EU have been more responsible than others, but you could say the same about US states.  Ditto China.  I've seen too many horrifying videos of China (check out PhD Parody on Twitter or the video archive at archive.nothingburger.today) to believe for one second that everything in China is as the CCP says it is.

I think a lot of people on this forum are misperceiving things due to their hatred of Trump.  The reality is there have been an enormous amount of screw ups from various actors (WHO, CDC, EU, major news outlets for not covering human rights abuses in China, wall street for not reacting to obvious news in February).  My county in the USA has been locked down for two weeks (and I've been self-isolating for longer) and we have fewer cases per capita than Sweden or London where folks have been much slower to respond.  Remember it was the UK that came up with the "do nothing herd immunity" plan and it was the Mexican President just a few days ago told everyone to live their lives like normal, etc.  There are also issues in many, many countries with testing (inc. some places where it is purposefully to being done to make the party in power look good) and misclassification of deaths.  This list includes first world countries such as Germany and Spain. 

I am not saying Trump is great or the US has done a good job.  I just think you are misperceiving how equally shitty of a job many other paces have done, and you are probably erroneously relying on the official statistics of confirmed cases and deaths even though there are systemic issues with undercounting almost everywhere.  Whether left-wing or right-wing, I find it useful to get my news from international sources and not just US-centric left wing or US-centric right wing forums.  USA response has been middle of the road compared to some of the more proactive places and some of the less proactive ones. 

EU / China / Japan / Russia also have issues with age structure due to many years of depressed birth rates and lower immigration.  So notice in the financial world the flight to safety to U.S. treasuries has continued despite our many, obvious mistakes.  Economics is really a dismal science and everywhere has problems.

Good post.  Don't let your ideological and personal biases dissuade you from the evidence in front of your eyes. 

Noodle

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #66 on: March 28, 2020, 01:10:54 PM »
People really want normalcy, so I suspect in the short run things will go back pretty much to pre-corona ways. What happens in these big cultural events, though, is that it forces people to try new things and some of those will stick afterwards. The example I always think of is that at my employer we had an event that had happened pretty much the same way for decades. There were better ways to do it, but long-time participants were extremely invested in it as a "tradition" and I wasn't willing to spend the capital that it would take to get them to try it a new way. Well, guess what, we had a major natural disaster and the repairs forced us to do it another way (which I picked) and the vast majority loved the new way which has stuck even though the conditions which forced us to try it have ended.

The pandemic is pushing past people's cognitive biases about predicting what will and won't work. So some businesses will realize that working from home leads to less expensive operations and happy staff. Some restaurants may discover that they really like doing take-out and delivery. Some people will discover they like working out outside enough that a gym membership isn't necessary. But this may also cause some people to realize how much they value human contact, so I don't think movie theaters and restaurants and churches are going anywhere.

My employer won't expand WFH much, I suspect. We own our land and facilities, so moving people home doesn't save any money in terms of rent. The IT department only wants people working on employer-owned hardware and given the enormous economic hit we're taking, we will not be in a position to expand our investment in it (right now everyone is working from their own desktop hardware they dragged home, and 90% of our jobs would require at least some time at the workplace so you would also need a computer there). Plus, our sector has also taken a huge hit and there will be a lot of people anxious to fill open jobs. So our employer has zero motivation to provide WFH for employee morale other than for very high performers as it will be pretty easy to replace people who quit.

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #67 on: March 28, 2020, 02:07:34 PM »
Agree with these and would add, VOTING!

We already mail in our ballots in Washington state. It doesn't make sense to have people take time away from their day to go to a central location to vote. Some states have already delayed their primaries due to social distancing. All states will move to a mail-in model.

stoaX

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #68 on: March 28, 2020, 02:23:25 PM »
Agree with these and would add, VOTING!

We already mail in our ballots in Washington state. It doesn't make sense to have people take time away from their day to go to a central location to vote. Some states have already delayed their primaries due to social distancing. All states will move to a mail-in model.

Yup - I lived in California for 14 years..up until a few months ago.  I always voted by mail and loved it.  To actually see the ballot and have time to do some research and think about it was great.  I know their are those who argue against it - this is just my personal experience. 

OtherJen

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #69 on: March 28, 2020, 02:45:01 PM »
Agree with these and would add, VOTING!

We already mail in our ballots in Washington state. It doesn't make sense to have people take time away from their day to go to a central location to vote. Some states have already delayed their primaries due to social distancing. All states will move to a mail-in model.

Yup - I lived in California for 14 years..up until a few months ago.  I always voted by mail and loved it.  To actually see the ballot and have time to do some research and think about it was great.  I know their are those who argue against it - this is just my personal experience.

I love going to the polls, but I think it's great to offer both options to increase access to the ballot. We voted to expand absentee voting in Michigan a couple of years ago, and it's been really popular so far. Our governor just signed an executive order to have absentee ballots mailed to all registered voters in communities having elections this May, which is excellent.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #70 on: March 28, 2020, 06:42:06 PM »
I am curious to see what happens with the gym.  I, and many other people, purchased exercise equipment when the gym shut down.  Will these people continue with home workouts and cancel their memberships?  Personally I will go to the gym for certain things, and keep doing other exercise at home.
The home gym equipment purchased now will suffer the same fate home gym equipment purchased in the past: collecting dust in a corner somewhere.

As part of my business, I've followed up on those who leave my gym months later to see if they're still lifting. Those who did a single 3 month term it's about 10% - which is about the fraction of the population who are active on their own. 6 months makes it 25%, 9 months 50%, and 12+ months 90%. Now, we can argue about whether their experience at my gym makes them more dedicated and organised, or whether it's simply dedicated and organised people who stick around a long time.

But either way: most people need some combination of coaching and community to make them stick with things and get results. Now the fact is that if we're just thinking about health, 3 months at my gym gives them all the skills they need for a lifetime, they could get their own gear and do it on their own, maybe with a check in every 6 or 12 months for some general guidance. If we're talking performance, okay people need longer - but nobody needs to squat 180kg or run 5km in under 20' or have sixpack abs for their health, and health is what most people are after. Still, they seem to need a year for things to stick.


I really wish it weren't so. I'd love to have my gym just working people through their first 3-6 months (allowing extra time for those with zero physical training background, chronic injuries or illnesses to work around), then they go off and do it on their own and I get a new bunch. Many of us do jobs in the hopes of making an impact, and I'd rather help 100 people in a year than 25 people. But unfortunately it's just not so.



It's like that line in Good Will Hunting about getting a university education not for $100k but for $1.50 in late library fees. In theory that's possible, in practice extraordinarily few people manage it. Just think: we're going to pick some subject you don't know much about right now, and in 12 months' time you're going to sit down for 100-level university exams in that subject - how many people would pass? Now, extend that to a full Bachelor's degree, and give them four years... I'd be surprised if more than 1 in 100 people could do it.

Most of us need some sort of structure, some guidance and company along the way - classes to go to at scheduled times with an instructor who offers a planned curriculum and expects assignments at certain times, and so on. Coaching and community, lecturers and student peers, same thing really.


The gear will mostly gather dust, unfortunately. People need coaching and community.

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #71 on: March 28, 2020, 06:57:59 PM »

Most of us need some sort of structure, some guidance and company along the way - classes to go to at scheduled times with an instructor who offers a planned curriculum and expects assignments at certain times, and so on. .


Right.

Students don't know what they don't know that they must  know  to be competent in their chosen field.

Instructors know what to include in a curriculum so  their students learn what  they need to in a structured, sequential manner.

Widespread telelearning will still require instructors, professors, and  guest lecturers who have specialized, expert  knowledge.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 07:00:26 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #72 on: March 28, 2020, 07:00:12 PM »
The academics I know tell me their online courses have a much lower completion rate. We humans are social animals - we need in-person accountability. "The class is at 9, the teacher / my friend expects me there, I'd better get moving."

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #73 on: March 28, 2020, 07:06:46 PM »
The academics I know tell me their online courses have a much lower completion rate. We humans are social animals - we need in-person accountability. "The class is at 9, the teacher / my friend expects me there, I'd better get moving."

I've thought a bit about the desirability of the social, in-person aspect of education so I favor a hybrid model.

Let some education occur in classrooms/lecture halls and some via at-home computer monitors.


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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #74 on: March 28, 2020, 07:23:00 PM »
I doubt we will see any long-term societal level behavior change. There will be some who choose to shift their habits, but most will be back to business as usual. It's like the old adage about a near-death experience changing you forever...for about 8 weeks.

I do agree with the increase in birth and divorce rate though.

Had to make it to page 2 of this discussion before hitting this opinion.

Yep, I fully expect no long-term changes to societal behavior. I expect as soon as it's over that people start behaving the same as they did before. I know several people that are chomping at the bit to get out of the house and travel. (And as soon as it's clear I think they'll be cruising as soon as they can.)

This pandemic I think would have to go on about 2-5 years before it had any lasting effect.

As long as it ends by July with little to no rebound in the fall, we'll have a vaccine more than likely next year. All in time to make sure that everyone forgets this ever happened by 2022, and we all go back to consuming as much as we ever did before.

mountain mustache

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #75 on: March 28, 2020, 08:02:18 PM »
whatever things change in society, I think they were already going to...this pandemic merely accelerated things in the direction they had already been heading.



Kyle Schuant

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #76 on: March 28, 2020, 09:09:10 PM »
I've thought a bit about the desirability of the social, in-person aspect of education so I favor a hybrid model.
Seems fair to me. It'd get rid of those boring lectures where the lecturer just shows you a video. "Okay, watch this at home and we'll discuss it next time."


As long as it ends by July with little to no rebound in the fall, we'll have a vaccine more than likely next year. All in time to make sure that everyone forgets this ever happened by 2022, and we all go back to consuming as much as we ever did before.

We don't have a vaccine for SARS-Cov, which was the source of the outbreak in 2002-3. We still don't have vaccines against malaria, HIV, MERS, Hepatitis C, Lyme disease, West Nile, or Zika. Unfortunately, vaccines are not inevitable.

Again, whether there are lasting changes depends on the duration of this drama. As I noted above, even a relatively simple thing like gym, 3 months doesn't produce lasting changes - but 12 months does. More complex changes, well we'll see.

Trimatty471

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #77 on: March 28, 2020, 09:16:41 PM »
I am curious to see what happens with the gym.  I, and many other people, purchased exercise equipment when the gym shut down.  Will these people continue with home workouts and cancel their memberships?  Personally I will go to the gym for certain things, and keep doing other exercise at home.

My wish is that gyms have ala carte pricing.
When I had membership, I only went to classes.  But you cannot pay for classes without paying for the use of equipment.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #78 on: March 28, 2020, 09:49:19 PM »
That's been tried. What then happens is that everyone chooses whichever is the cheapest membership, then some people try to sneak into other classes and areas they haven't paid for - so that staff are forever having to challenge people for their membership cards, which people forget and... it's all very unpleasant and erodes that community feel which is what people are really after in the gym.


And people who choose the cheapest membership tend not to go much anyway. Which is the basis of the success of the cheap unstaffed 24 hour gyms - they're banking on your not going. An industry relying on people not using its goods and services does not have a great long-term future, there's a massive turnover in gym businesses. But there it is.


This is the fitness industry. There's always someone five minutes closer or five dollars cheaper. This is why people will of course buy gym gear for home - but not use it much. Likewise, this is why people will do their paid work from home if not actually prohibited by managers from doing so.

poetdereves

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #79 on: March 29, 2020, 07:27:38 AM »
I donít think many things will change with such a big swing. There may be small differences, but most people will go back to their normal life.

Iím surprised the most by the people think international travel is going to disappear. It may take a hit for a while during the beginning while people get back into their work habits and build up more PTO, but almost everyone I know still has an international trip planned within the next year and I have personally been browsing cheap tickets for trips I have been wanting to take.

Coronavirus was barely scary enough to the majority of people to start washing their hands. Even where I currently live people arenít taking it very seriously and arenít staying home and changing their habits as much as they should. I doubt many people will change their habits with most of the things mentioned.

Two things that will change for me personally:
-I i will find a good used car to pay cash for because a lot of people canít afford their payments and have to get rid of the car they canít afford.
-I will finally get cheap home gym equipment when people realize they bought all this stuff that takes up space that they arenít using.

expatartist

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #80 on: March 29, 2020, 09:16:31 AM »
I donít think many things will change with such a big swing. There may be small differences, but most people will go back to their normal life.

Iím surprised the most by the people think international travel is going to disappear. It may take a hit for a while during the beginning while people get back into their work habits and build up more PTO, but almost everyone I know still has an international trip planned within the next year and I have personally been browsing cheap tickets for trips I have been wanting to take.

Your lives will change not because you want them to, not because you'll try, but because the rest of the world will change whether you want it to or not. So your choices will change, because prices and the options they reflect will be different. Income opportunities for some of you will change. The materials and labor and systems that have made your life what it is so far, are and will continue to be affected by this pandemic for several years. Entire industries will change. The people who make your clothes, your furniture, the breathe the toxic waste created by the goods that power many economies linked with yours, will die of this at incredibly high rates. Their nations will be devastated.

I worked in the travel industry for a handful of years: as a writer, photographer, for a tour company. Everyone I know who works in the travel industry knows this is the end of the business as they've known it. Every business that depends on international flows of currency and goods and / or people will be affected.

ender

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #81 on: March 29, 2020, 10:01:48 AM »
I'm really surprised how many people expect this to have large sweeping changes as a result.

wenchsenior

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #82 on: March 29, 2020, 10:09:57 AM »
I don't know how much will change other than this will exacerbate the current trend of minimizing humans doing jobs, and trying to do more jobs with machines or automated functions.

I suspect any other changes will last exactly as long as it takes for the people who are young teens and younger to grow up and start running things.  People have INCREDIBLY short memories are extremely bad at learning from history.


bmjohnson35

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #83 on: March 29, 2020, 10:35:42 AM »

Of course, it largely depends on how this all plays out over the next year or so.  I do believe we will see changes as industries  and economies are impacted and have to adapt.  Furthermore, I would hope that we learn from this experience and be better prepared for future incidents of this nature. 

The cruise industry will see a major impact.  One of Royal Caribbean mega ship's costs around 1.4 billion to build.  Having to park their entire fleet for 1-4 months is huge.  How long will it take for people to start sailing again? Will they reduce their fleet? Will some cruise lines fail? Will they have to change their business strategy completely?  I don't claim to know the answers, but I don't think it will be "business as usual" in the future.

I think home delivery services will continue to flourish following this pandemic.

I suspect international travel and travel in general may diminish for a while.

I suspect we may see masks being worn more often in public in the US, similar to what we see in the asian countries.

As others have stated, I think that some changes were inevitable and this pandemic may only serve to accelerate changes in society.

BJ



Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #84 on: March 29, 2020, 11:27:07 AM »
Oh one thing I definitely expect to see: prepping will be very cool going forward. When you canít rely on politicians or industrial leaders to exercise leadership, it falls to individuals, families and smaller social units like churches to do so.

Malkynn

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #85 on: March 29, 2020, 11:30:03 AM »
I'm really surprised how many people expect this to have large sweeping changes as a result.

Agreed, I can't see so much sweeping changes as an acceleration of changes, at least in the immediate future.

What will be interesting is what happens when very young people whose very basis of understanding of the world grow up and become a major economic/political force.

LWYRUP

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #86 on: March 29, 2020, 11:34:31 AM »
Oh one thing I definitely expect to see: prepping will be very cool going forward. When you canít rely on politicians or industrial leaders to exercise leadership, it falls to individuals, families and smaller social units like churches to do so.

Yep.  I started prepping in February when I listened to the WHO, CDC and major politicians (from many different countries, of various ideologies) and then compared it to the on-the-ground reports I was reading on reddit (videos from human rights activists, local reports, links to recently published medical research and interviews with epidemiologists) and realized that the powers that be were either totally incompetent or lying to the public or both.  I realized I needed to protect my family on my own.

Lesson learned.   

expatartist

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #87 on: March 29, 2020, 11:50:25 AM »
Things will to an extent depend on what your life is like now, how connected it is to the rest of the world, and what vaccines and treatments are found for COVID-19. The estimate is 18 months or more, by which time we will have had several waves. North America is still in its first wave. NYC (where #45 left residency) has received 2% of the aid requested of the federal government; Florida (where #45 has just moved residency) received 200% of the aid it requested. It is evident worldwide he is unreliable.

The perspectives on this thread may be different in a month or two. A friend recently lost both his parents in Italy to the virus, in a town devastated by it; another was stuck in West Africa as her father was dying of it. I know a half-dozen people who have wrestled with it and survived. But many areas of the US are looking to be headed for a disaster unseen anywhere in the world so far outside Northern Italy.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #88 on: March 29, 2020, 11:56:15 AM »
Oh one thing I definitely expect to see: prepping will be very cool going forward. When you canít rely on politicians or industrial leaders to exercise leadership, it falls to individuals, families and smaller social units like churches to do so.

I think of the husbandry of the Mu$tachian ethos as  prepping  absent paranoia.

marble_faun

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #89 on: March 29, 2020, 12:20:11 PM »
I don't agree that videos will replace the experience of traditional, in-person college education.  From what I've seen, students have mourned the loss of community as everything was abruptly cancelled.  Ideally college isn't just about absorbing facts.  It's a social world with a texture to it, and a telecommuting app is a pretty pale substitute.  If anything, the coronavirus may delay the embrace of distance learning as in-person interaction becomes more prized and valued.

I do think more people will learn to cut their own hair!

scottnews

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #90 on: March 29, 2020, 12:27:26 PM »
Baby boom in 9 months

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #91 on: March 29, 2020, 12:35:16 PM »
I don't agree that videos will replace the experience of traditional, in-person college education.  From what I've seen, students have mourned the loss of community as everything was abruptly cancelled.  Ideally college isn't just about absorbing facts.  It's a social world with a texture to it, and a telecommuting app is a pretty pale substitute.  If anything, the coronavirus may delay the embrace of distance learning as in-person interaction becomes more prized and valued.


 I'd arrange the hybrid  system I posted upthread  so that at the beginning of each semester all the new classmates would be taught in a classroom where they would interact in person and get to know each other so that later on, when telelearning, they would know who it was they were communicating with.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #92 on: March 29, 2020, 12:39:06 PM »
Baby boom in 9 months

Yes.

the guardian
2 days ago


 A global shortage of condoms is looming, the world's biggest producer has said, after a coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut down production.

Cranky

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #93 on: March 29, 2020, 12:46:17 PM »
Baby boom in 9 months

Only for people currently without children...

bacchi

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #94 on: March 29, 2020, 03:44:36 PM »
I'm not convinced a baby boom will happen. Do baby booms happen during recessions or depressions? There was a boom after WW2 but not in the early 30s, when >20% were unemployed and had plenty of time.

Speaking of the depression, it was a defining moment for people who grew up then. Many of our great+-grandparents kept their penny pinching ways their entire lives. This has the potential to do the same (and not only in financial ways).

wanderlustNW

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #95 on: March 29, 2020, 03:50:21 PM »
I think people will always be leery of group situations. Already I see myself with 12 months of social distancing not wanting to participate in going to a large concert, or any other kind of large scale thing where many people gather. My husband is even worse and it's only been a few weeks. I think we'll be more hermits than we already were. When we walk the dog in the neighborhood we are always weaving from one side of the street to the other just so we don't have to pass closely to someone else.

I also think this is going to fundamentally change eating out and bars. All around our city places are boarded up, many of them for good. People just aren't going to return in large number any time soon to this kind of establishment. Even though we flatten the curve, COVID infections are still going to happen until we get some immunization, and people are going to avoid these places.


marble_faun

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #96 on: March 29, 2020, 04:26:43 PM »
Yeah, not sure about a baby boom in the midst of a pandemic.  For one thing, it's not good to run a fever while pregnant, so given the choice, a lot of people might avoid conceiving at this time. 

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #97 on: March 29, 2020, 04:44:23 PM »
I've never understood the handshake (I will honor you that I don;t know at all with physical intimacy and giving you any cold I have) or cruise ships (voluntary physical imprisonment in a seasick environment which, if anyone happens to be present with a stomach flu, makes the seasickness seem a whole lot worse). 

I guess what I'm saying is, I don't know how they survived and thrived before, so no idea if they will after.

merula

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #98 on: March 29, 2020, 04:52:37 PM »
I do not know how it is outside Europe, but pandemic and mortality shocks are taken into account in the determination of the capital European insurance companies have to hold.

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/IandF_SA2_SolvencyII_2016.pdf

This is somewhat reassuring. I assume the references to tier one/two/three capital are at least broadly equivalent to the same headings in banking regulation.

Now we get to see who did their risk modelling properly, and who did their risk modelling to get the regulators off their backs. That 99.5% confidence interval makes me think there will be at least a couple of insurers who put this type of scenario at a less than one in 200 probability.

What kind of insurance do you see as being impacted? Are you talking about the US?

Channel-Z

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Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
« Reply #99 on: March 29, 2020, 05:24:20 PM »
I don't see people social-distancing in my neighborhood, despite the soft lock-down. Delivery drivers are more abundant around here than ever, so people aren't cooking from home either. People are itching to return to their normal lives.

The virus has simply hastened the end of a lot of service jobs that were doomed anyway.

A fundamental question will be your medical privacy vs. the public right to know. At what point does your health history and your current condition become part of the surveillance state, the transit process.