I am curious to see what happens with the gym. I, and many other people, purchased exercise equipment when the gym shut down. Will these people continue with home workouts and cancel their memberships? Personally I will go to the gym for certain things, and keep doing other exercise at home.
The home gym equipment purchased now will suffer the same fate home gym equipment purchased in the past: collecting dust in a corner somewhere.
As part of my business, I've followed up on those who leave my gym months later to see if they're still lifting. Those who did a single 3 month term it's about 10% - which is about the fraction of the population who are active on their own. 6 months makes it 25%, 9 months 50%, and 12+ months 90%. Now, we can argue about whether their experience at my gym makes them more dedicated and organised, or whether it's simply dedicated and organised people who stick around a long time.
But either way: most people need some combination of coaching and community to make them stick with things and get results. Now the fact is that if we're just thinking about health, 3 months at my gym gives them all the skills they need for a lifetime, they could get their own gear and do it on their own, maybe with a check in every 6 or 12 months for some general guidance. If we're talking performance, okay people need longer - but nobody needs to squat 180kg or run 5km in under 20' or have sixpack abs for their
health, and health is what most people are after. Still, they seem to need a year for things to stick.
I really wish it weren't so. I'd love to have my gym just working people through their first 3-6 months (allowing extra time for those with zero physical training background, chronic injuries or illnesses to work around), then they go off and do it on their own and I get a new bunch. Many of us do jobs in the hopes of making an impact, and I'd rather help 100 people in a year than 25 people. But unfortunately it's just not so.
It's like that line in
Good Will Hunting about getting a university education not for $100k but for $1.50 in late library fees. In theory that's possible, in practice extraordinarily few people manage it. Just think: we're going to pick some subject you don't know much about right now, and in 12 months' time you're going to sit down for 100-level university exams in that subject - how many people would pass? Now, extend that to a full Bachelor's degree, and give them four years... I'd be surprised if more than 1 in 100 people could do it.
Most of us need some sort of
structure, some guidance and company along the way - classes to go to at scheduled times with an instructor who offers a planned curriculum and expects assignments at certain times, and so on. Coaching and community, lecturers and student peers, same thing really.
The gear will mostly gather dust, unfortunately. People need coaching and community.
