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General Discussion => Welcome and General Discussion => Topic started by: fuzzy math on March 27, 2020, 12:37:47 PM

Title: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: fuzzy math on March 27, 2020, 12:37:47 PM
What industries do you think will disappear forever? What alternate methods that we're adapting to will become standard sooner because of quarantines?

My list:

- telehealth visits (were simply not available for many specialties and insurance frequently didn't pay the same). I'm guessing they will be covered permanently and much more available.

- Cruise lines. I don't see them ever being able to recover from this. For at least the next winter season we have to see how the virus plays out. What country is going to agree to possibly accept a boat full of 1000 sick people again? What 70 yr old couple wants to go on one?

- Online courses / e-learning / homeschooling. For both K-12 and universities, I think the sudden wide availability of school at home will continue. Many people may permanently pull their kids out of school over ongoing illness issues now that they've been forced to learn to homeschool.

-  Universities will go bankrupt eventually. Lots of money is tied up in having a fancy campus. With universities being closed we are learning  the optics of those fancy buildings do little to contribute to the education of students. Please note, I am not arguing that university buildings themselves are pointless. Many hours spent in science labs were the fundamentals of my education. The $$$ spent on optics for a university may no longer be valued as much.

- Hospitals are going to go bankrupt. Frankly I do not know how they will recover. The 1- 2 punch of an influx of patients at a time when many are losing their insurance and the ability to pay for care. Not good.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: bacchi on March 27, 2020, 01:15:31 PM
I agree about telehealth and cruise ships. The cruise ship industry is in for a long contraction.

- Re: telehealth, will we be able to talk with foreign doctors that have been vetted by our insurance provider? I.e., can I chat with a less expensive German doctor about my cough?

- Universities closing? No way. Look at all the seniors that are saddened about missing their last semester. Going to a U is not only about an education; it's also about interacting with thousands of your peers. There will always be people willing to pay for that. There are also many people that just don't do well with distance education.

- Hospitals will be propped up with government funds if necessary. There might even be a short spike of medical equipment purchasing as hospitals and local governments prepare for the next pandemic.


Other things:

- Travel will decline. Not only will the recession decrease travel but so will the desire to spend time in exotic locales with limited medical coverage.

- Will telework increase?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Sibley on March 27, 2020, 01:31:59 PM
I think you're pretty confident that we will remember all this in detail. If people remembered hard, painful scary stuff that well, there would never be any 2nd children.

There will be changes. Whether they will be universal or permanent, who knows?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: rantk81 on March 27, 2020, 01:32:33 PM
- More people will install and use bidets.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on March 27, 2020, 01:34:05 PM
I vote for telework increasing, and other jobs disappearing entirely when businesses send the folks who currently do those jobs home and realize the company is able to get along without them.

My guess is that this semester is going to leave a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths about the idea of internet based education. There is a good way to do it, but very hard for lots of professors and school teachers to manage it on anywhere from a couple of hours to a couple of weeks notice. So it may actually reinforce the preference for in-person education. But even a semester or two of disruption, combined with the dropping stock market, may be enough to push a lot of private non-elite universities that are currently teetering on the edge over into collapse.

My other predictions for long term shifts:

-I predict we'll see america and europe adopt a cultural view on wearing facemasks that is much more similar to the asian model (no one looks at you funny for wearing one out in public, and during flu season most people wear them).

-Shift to more eating at home as generations of people under lockdown who never learned to cook well are forced to experiment out of boredom and many realize they like it/are good at it.

-A growth in the number of one-income families as either fathers or mothers who spend months caring for kids at home during lockdown realize they get more satisfaction out of it than the job they work that pays just about enough to cover childcare.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: chemistk on March 27, 2020, 01:45:14 PM
I really think this will usher in a new 'normal' for remote work. My company, prior to this, was cool with one WFH day per week and a very very small handful of FT remote workers.

I'm going to bet that in the future, they encourage more WFH days - less electricity/water/supplies consumed at the office for nearly the same level of productivity.

I can imagine many other companies are discovering that virtual work really isn't all that bad.

---

I also think (hope) that this shifts the attitude here in the US of working while sick. So many people just plow through many types of illnesses because they have no sick leave and/or feel compelled to show that they're pulling their weight.

I'd love to see employers encourage people to stay at home/work from home if they're not feeling well and to generally have more protections/offerings for people who are sick so that even minor bugs don't get spread around nearly as often.

---

This one may not be universal to a lot of people, some might laugh/scoff at the notion, but I'd also love for some of the negative stigma surrounding stay-at-home parents to go away. I understand it hasn't always been this way, but my wife receives a lot of flak/jealousy from other people because she doesn't work. Some common themes:

"You're just watching kids, how hard can it be?"

"It must be sooo nice to be at home all day and not have to worry about work-related responsibilities."

"Have you considered getting a part time job to help support your family?"

"You know, in today's day and age, you don't have to stay home."

There have been others, and maybe it's a milennial/genz attitude, but she really gets a lot of negativity because of it. She was also 'left out' of the local moms group because she doesn't work or volunteer. Not everyone has the luxury to have one parent at home, and some people just plain see it as old-fashioned. It would be cool after all this for the SAHP naysayers (at least the ones we know) to change their tune a bit.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Alfred J Quack on March 27, 2020, 01:58:53 PM
I vote for telework increasing, and other jobs disappearing entirely when businesses send the folks who currently do those jobs home and realize the company is able to get along without them.
I agree with this. Most of our colleagues could work from home but were not permitted because of information sharing on the workfloor and such. Inside of a week from our governments ban _everyone_ that could technically work from home _is_ working from home. Me and colleagues from IT support had a hell of a job there but got it done.

But a lot of companies are ill equipped to do this properly though. Either with a IT infrastructure optimized for office desktops where only a small part works from home. Our biggest problem was outsourced hardware which had a performance problem outside of our control.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 27, 2020, 02:15:37 PM


- Online courses / e-learning / homeschooling. For both K-12 and universities, I think the sudden wide availability of school at home will continue. .

^
To these  I add more WFH employees.


It's not 1920.

It's 2020.

Congress ought to change its rules so that legislators can  telelegislate  instead of having to fly to Washington D.C. as much as they do now.



Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Zikoris on March 27, 2020, 02:27:24 PM
I think home grocery delivery is going to continue to be popular post-plague. I think that so many people in North America have basically been unaware of its existence until very recently. Certainly when I used it several years ago, the most common response was "What the hell, you can actually do that?"
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 27, 2020, 02:28:47 PM
I really think this will usher in a new 'normal' for remote work. My company, prior to this, was cool with one WFH day per week and a very very small handful of FT remote workers.


If WFH becomes the norm it will be a boon to  reduction of air pollution.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: matchewed on March 27, 2020, 02:29:17 PM
I'd argue that the WFH will actually reveal that companies have way more people than they need, or that computers have increased efficiency to a degree that they don't need as many people around.

I foresee another decrease in the civilian worker participation rate (US Metric) that remains fairly permanent.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Loretta on March 27, 2020, 02:37:14 PM
I live in an area where there is a nail salon in every shopping center—I suspect many of them will not bounce back after this.  Same with laser hair removal joints and day spas.  Not a necessary expenditure as many people are currently learning. 

The cruise industry is so not necessary and if they receive a government bailout I’ll be disgusted. 

Will more people think twice before going to unnecessary doctors appointments for a sniffle or an ache from here on out, thinking that medical facilities are filthy places to get sicker than when they started out?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on March 27, 2020, 02:40:26 PM
I think people are going to be incredibly eager to send their kids back to school, and delighted to get back to the office.

I don’t think grocery delivery/pickup is going all that smoothly for a lot of people, and personally will never again have less than 50lbs of flour in my house.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on March 27, 2020, 03:00:08 PM
Movies - the enforced move to streaming may mean the end for theaters?
This is only a hope - we become less celebrity obsessed as a society.
Outdoor recreation - can see a boom. "You don't know what you have until it's gone"
Pro sports - I can see that they may struggle after a boomlet at the beginning when it comes back. People may see their is more to life than slavishly following a team?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: haflander on March 27, 2020, 03:03:14 PM
Pro sports - I can see that they may struggle after a boomlet at the beginning when it comes back. People may see their is more to life than slavishly following a team?

Ha! Now that's rich, considering your user name. :)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ixtap on March 27, 2020, 03:04:52 PM
I think people are going to be incredibly eager to send their kids back to school, and delighted to get back to the office.



Perhaps there will finally be more appreciation for teachers and we can increase their salaries.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on March 27, 2020, 03:07:11 PM
Pro sports - I can see that they may struggle after a boomlet at the beginning when it comes back. People may see their is more to life than slavishly following a team?

Ha! Now that's rich, considering your user name. :)

Fair comment :-)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on March 27, 2020, 03:11:45 PM
Movies - the enforced move to streaming may mean the end for theaters?

I hadn't thought of this one, but I agree with you. Movie theaters were already on their way out, but once people get used to watching new releases on day one from the comfort of their own home I don't think they'll ever go back in substantial numbers.

I'd argue that the WFH will actually reveal that companies have way more people than they need, or that computers have increased efficiency to a degree that they don't need as many people around.

I foresee another decrease in the civilian worker participation rate (US Metric) that remains fairly permanent.

It surprises me how many people don't realize many of the types of middle management/white color jobs that existed before 2008/09 never came back and the labor force participation rate never recovered.

(https://imgpile.com/images/Immhgu.png) (https://imgpile.com/i/Immhgu)

The rate of advances in labor saving/replacing computer programs and automation hasn't appreciably slowed down since then, so I agree with you, we'll likely see another sustained decrease in labor force participation.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on March 27, 2020, 03:18:46 PM
Some people won't need to buy toilet paper for years.

Honestly, the only lasting change I foresee are obvious changes that should have happened anyway but were resisted for irrational reasons, like working from home.

Oh, and yes bidets.
It makes no sense that they aren't more popular.

I agree that movie theatres are probably fucked if people get used to paying a premium for new release theatrical streaming because of this.

Pandemic insurance will either become extremely popular, unaffordable expensive, or cease to exist, like flood insurance in some regions.
It's hard to say...I could ask people who know much more about this, but I won't because I don't feel like it yet.

I'm also curious what affect this might have on other types of insurance, especially travel insurance.

I do consulting for an insurance company, that's why most of my main curiosities are about insurance.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: rantk81 on March 27, 2020, 03:25:14 PM
In the long run, insurance is a scam.

I'm not calling it a scam because the "expected value" of a claim is less than what people expect to pay in premiums.  That's to be expected, and is valuable to an individual, on an individual basis, to insure against an unexpected event.

The reason I call it a scam is, it doesn't protect against the "[insert-large-number]-standard-deviation" tail-risk black swan events, where the insurance company just goes belly up and says "thanks for the fish. we're bankrupt now!  Good luck to all."  And that's kind of what we could be seeing now.

Another reason why I'll never buy an "annuity" from an insurance company.  You'd get a far better effective yield (and have less risk) by just buying a basket of insurance company stocks, and collecting the dividends.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on March 27, 2020, 03:27:37 PM
In the long run, insurance is a scam.

I'm not calling it a scam because the "expected value" of a claim is less than what people expect to pay in premiums.  That's to be expected, and is valuable to an individual, on an individual basis, to insure against an unexpected event.

The reason I call it a scam is, it doesn't protect against the "[insert-large-number]-standard-deviation" tail-risk black swan events, where the insurance company just goes belly up and says "thanks for the fish. we're bankrupt now!  Good luck to all."  And that's kind of what we could be seeing now.

Another reason why I'll never buy an "annuity" from an insurance company.  You'd get a far better effective yield (and have less risk) by just buying a basket of insurance company stocks, and collecting the dividends.

I'm very curious to see how the company that provides pandemic coverage for medical professionals here fares after all of this.

ETA, I don't consult on individual insurance, I consult regarding professional insurance
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on March 27, 2020, 03:31:46 PM
I think people are going to be incredibly eager to send their kids back to school, and delighted to get back to the office.

I don’t think grocery delivery/pickup is going all that smoothly for a lot of people, and personally will never again have less than 50lbs of flour in my house.

Re: bulk purchases. I realized a couple of weeks ago that I had maybe 2-week supplies of my gluten-free rolled oats (which I eat almost every morning) and chow for our pet rabbits. Somehow during my prep purchasing, I missed those two items. Checked online stocks at local stores. No luck. Checked the website of the company that produces the oats and an online pet supplies website, and the only options were 25-lb bags of each. Both were cheaper per pound than the smaller sizes, even after shipping. I never would have bought the bulk bags before, but now I will always buy them.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on March 27, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
There are going to be a lot of subtle but interesting changes. There will be much bigger ones, but the small things will be quite unusual.

I'm expecting to see a glut of TV quiz shows in the next twelve months: the format can be developed and put together fairly easily over Zoom, the questions can be written and compiled by question editors at home, the costs are relatively small (one studio set, a week of filming, a minimal crew and you have several months' worth of weekly shows), and it can be done with small numbers of people, so there's far less of an issue with large numbers.

There's going to be a desperate shortage of good rock and metal albums in about a year's time, but fans of cold and alienated electronica will probably be spoiled for choice. We'll also hopefully have a bumper crop of good books somewhere down the line, as authors spend weeks indoors with no distractions.

Work from home will, I suspect, become much bigger. A lot of workplaces will find it's not good enough, but a sizeable enough minority will realise that they've gotten substantial cost savings in return for little to no lost productivity, and will stick with it.

The really big one, and something I think could be profoundly important, is that in some countries, the idea of small-government conservatism will die as an electoral force. We're seeing it in Ireland at the moment; Fine Gael, the most economically rightwing of the main parties, has just announced the government-enforced lockdown of all citizens to within 2km of their homes except for essential work and to buy groceries.and is overseeing the largest expansion of unemployment benefits in Irish history. They will not be the only rightwing party to make this shift.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 27, 2020, 03:45:13 PM
There's going to be a desperate shortage of good rock and metal albums in about a year's time

You were supposed to talk about things that were going to be different.  :P
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on March 27, 2020, 03:56:32 PM
Oh, I almost forgot: insurance companies are absolutely fucked.

Some will avoid paying out on Covid-19 deaths by claiming force majeure. But a lot will spend a fortune defending themselves in court on that front, and a lot will spend a fortune paying out to the estates of people who die of cancer or blood loss while the hospitals are overrun, and I'd be willing to bet a sizeable amount of money that there isn't a single major insurer on the planet who took the time to work out their likely liabilities in a situation like this and made sure they were adequately funded.

With the obvious exceptions of things like flood insurance, the assumption for an insurance company is that liabilities are idiosyncratic rather than systemic, unlike banks. Bank defaults come in waves, because they're driven by crashes and recessions, but historically insurance liabilities have been mostly driven by individual circumstances. There are slow, sweeping changes, but nothing that can't be caught with careful annual assessment of the numbers. Insurance companies don't carry anything like the same level of assets on their books as banks, because they've never needed to and nobody's ever made them. Now they're going to see a spectacular, shocking systemic healthcare crisis, and the assets they hold to fund their suddenly exploding liabilities are going down the toilet along with the rest of the stock and bond markets.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on March 27, 2020, 03:57:21 PM
You were supposed to talk about things that were going to be different.  :P

Touche!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on March 27, 2020, 04:05:41 PM
I'm going to disagree about cruise lines being in trouble. For years they've been known as breeding grounds for various diseases, and yet they remain popular.

https://www.cruisemapper.com/wiki/1056-cruise-ship-norovirus-outbreaks#2018 (https://www.cruisemapper.com/wiki/1056-cruise-ship-norovirus-outbreaks#2018)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on March 27, 2020, 04:20:22 PM
Quote
There have been others, and maybe it's a milennial/genz attitude, but she really gets a lot of negativity because of it. She was also 'left out' of the local moms group because she doesn't work or volunteer. Not everyone has the luxury to have one parent at home, and some people just plain see it as old-fashioned. It would be cool after all this for the SAHP naysayers (at least the ones we know) to change their tune a bit.

This is hilarious!  I think it varies GREATLY on where you are.  It might be a "young person" thing?  Or possibly your location.  I can see the thought of it being old-fashioned.  Full disclosure: I'm a working mother, but I don't disparage SAHMs, as a bunch of them are my friends.

I've got two kids, and they are 14 and 7.  I'm an "older mother".  I'd say I was a tiny bit on the older side of my mom's group (60 women in the group) with kid #1 (I was 35, and probably 25% of us were that age or older).  We had a large group that met in a church room for two months, then the group splits off and a new group starts.  There was a woman in the group that offered to kind of "take charge" of the meetings after that (holding them in parks, etc.)  Several smaller groups had split off by then, so I'd say maybe 30-40 women left. 

ALL OF THE MEETINGS WERE AT 10 AM MID-WEEK.  ALL OF THEM.  I asked her, once, "would you ever think of having a meet-up on a Saturday?  Maybe once a month?"  The answer: "NO.  I don't work, and a large number of my friends in the group don't work.  Why would I do that?  I don't need any more friends."  (I wish I was making that up, but it's almost verbatim.) 

I went back to work at 13 weeks, which was 1 month into this 2 month group.  So I immediately sent an email to the group, scheduling "working mom meet-ups" mid-week in the evenings at my house.  We had 8-15 at any time, and we got the dads too!  Also, turns out one of the families was LITERALLY across the street and our kids have been best buds ever since.  Working moms were the ones being left out.  Funny that by the time our kids were 2-3, most of them were working again (by then they all had 2 kids).

By the time I had kid #2 I was super duper old.  (42).  The economy was still kind of in the toilet, so there were more working moms in that mom group, but still quite a number of SAHMs.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ender on March 27, 2020, 04:23:08 PM
I really think this will usher in a new 'normal' for remote work. My company, prior to this, was cool with one WFH day per week and a very very small handful of FT remote workers.

I'm going to bet that in the future, they encourage more WFH days - less electricity/water/supplies consumed at the office for nearly the same level of productivity.

I can imagine many other companies are discovering that virtual work really isn't all that bad.

Our team was talking about how much more effective we feel at delivering too. I really hope this is true.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on March 27, 2020, 04:23:48 PM
I think home grocery delivery is going to continue to be popular post-plague. I think that so many people in North America have basically been unaware of its existence until very recently. Certainly when I used it several years ago, the most common response was "What the hell, you can actually do that?"
Agreed.  I used to have a CSA membership, but it closed.  Then I tested out home delivery of produce (from a company that was started by the former CSA manager), and it is so great.  So great. 

Both my produce delivery services are SLAMMED right now.  SLAMMED.


I don't think universities will go away.  Certainly I couldn't do any of my chemical engineering labs at home (not safely, anyway).

More WFH though.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Enough on March 27, 2020, 04:47:56 PM
- Universities closing? No way. Look at all the seniors that are saddened about missing their last semester. Going to a U is not only about an education; it's also about interacting with thousands of your peers. There will always be people willing to pay for that. There are also many people that just don't do well with distance education.

Already happening: https://www.mac.edu/closure

I dont think we'll see large state colleges closing, but I could see smaller private universities having major financial difficulties.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 27, 2020, 04:50:33 PM
Well, first off I expect to see folks washing their hands more often.  That's some good news.

Certain co-morbidity enhancers such as high blood pressure and diabetes will become distinctly uncool.  Another good thing.

Homeschooling becomes both loved and reviled as parents get a real life test of it.  I expect that it will grow.

Cruise ships?  I don't expect them to do that well. 

WFH becomes much bigger.  Companies will notice how much cheaper it is not to maintain an office.  On the other hand, a lot of nonessential folks will be let go, so labor force participation drops again.

Budgeting and frugality become very cool out of necessity. 

A baby boomlet happens in about 9 months. 

Lots more people adopt doggies and kitties for companionship.  Another good thing. 

Shaking hands and physical touch is more uncommon, at least in public.

Car ownership takes a hit. 
 

 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on March 27, 2020, 05:19:14 PM
I think people are going to be incredibly eager to send their kids back to school, and delighted to get back to the office.

I don’t think grocery delivery/pickup is going all that smoothly for a lot of people, and personally will never again have less than 50lbs of flour in my house.

Re: bulk purchases. I realized a couple of weeks ago that I had maybe 2-week supplies of my gluten-free rolled oats (which I eat almost every morning) and chow for our pet rabbits. Somehow during my prep purchasing, I missed those two items. Checked online stocks at local stores. No luck. Checked the website of the company that produces the oats and an online pet supplies website, and the only options were 25-lb bags of each. Both were cheaper per pound than the smaller sizes, even after shipping. I never would have bought the bulk bags before, but now I will always buy them.

I pointed out to dh that 20 years ago I bought 125 lbs of flour every fall. The 25 lb bags went on sale then, and I knew that I used about that much every year.

Now my grocery stores don’t even carry those 25lb bags. My kids are grow; I bake less. So I stockpile less, and boy - do I regret it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on March 27, 2020, 05:31:55 PM
On my walks and runs here in Australia this last week or two, I've noticed a lot more people out and about walking, running and cycling - and the local park's been busier. Unfortunately they're all keeping their distance, so the usual social benefit of not sitting in your car or looking at your phone isn't there. Still, overall they are improving their physical health.

About a million people have lost their jobs (including me - I had to shut my business), and another million will follow shortly. Another few million are now working from home. So some people have all day free, and others are now more productive without the distraction of the open plan office, and they don't have the commute. This gives people more spare time.


Some jobs are so destructive to the person's mental health they are better-off lost, so that some people's mental health will improve unemployed, but most will I think be worse off. But those who are now more productive and not commuting will see an improvement in their mental health.


More people working from home will mean emptier offices. As well, large crowded shopping centres will become less attractive, and smaller more local shops more so. This, by the by, is going to hurt the commercial real estate market badly. But local businesses will do better - it'll take time because of the likely depression we're facing, but they'll come back up.

The panic-buying has given people full pantries and fridges, and restaurants and food courts have closed, so that people will be eating more meals cooked from fresh(ish) ingredients at home, improving their physical health.

The sight of empty shelves has led many people to start trying to grow some of their own food. Obviously due to space and skill limitations this will just be a token amount, nonetheless being a bit more aware by experience what's involved in natural processes of growth and decay, and the trouble taken to produce food, may improve people's sense of connection to natural processes and appreciation of what they're eating.

As they say in Yorkshire, "it's an ill wind that blows no good."
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Optimiser on March 27, 2020, 05:41:48 PM
I imagine we will see a spike in divorces too as spouses are spending a lot more time together under stressful circumstances.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 05:51:41 PM
- More people will install and use bidets.

Lol.  You don't know how many times I have eyeballed the American Standard version at Menards.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on March 27, 2020, 05:51:54 PM

I imagine we will see a spike in divorces too as spouses are spending a lot more time together under stressful circumstances.

In Australia there's already been a rise in calls to domestic violence support.

But while many bad marriages become worse or break up, I think good marriages will get better.


Without the commute and putting on suits and all that, people are more likely to be able to wake naturally rather than with an alarm. So there's better sleep and mood there for a start, which starts your day with your spouse better.


It varies by location, but the average Australian spends an hour a day commuting. That's now an hour free to do domestic tasks the other spouse is sick of, or neither of you ever did, to have a nice sit-down dinner with each-other and the children, if any.


And the things I mentioned earlier about better physical and mental health being possible, that's only going to help marriages, too.

It's easy to measure bad marriages getting worse, by separations and divorces and domestic violence statistics. It's harder to measure good marriages getting better. But I believe it'll happen.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Bloop Bloop on March 27, 2020, 05:59:42 PM
I don't think much will change. People said 9/11 would change the world forever. On a domestic level all it did was make airport scanning more onerous.

I can see incremental increases to working from home, and the like. I can see my taxes going up a fuckload to pay for all these stimulus measures. I don't consider either of them to be fundamental changes.

People will go back to beaches and restaurants the moments the lockdowns are lifted.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on March 27, 2020, 06:15:32 PM
I don't think much will change. People said 9/11 would change the world forever.
The people of Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan may feel differently.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Miss Piggy on March 27, 2020, 06:16:51 PM
I would be happy if people change their illness behaviors, including:
- Cover your cough/sneeze
- Stay the fuck home if you're sick

I don't ask for much.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Morning Glory on March 27, 2020, 06:23:15 PM
Germophobia will stay with us for a while and sales of products like purell and Lysol will be higher than before.

People will stop trying to reduce single use plastic.

Greetings such as kissing on the cheek might be gone forever, or reserved for immediate family.

It might become taboo to go out in public while sick.

Many people will keep more food and supplies in their homes for years to come.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ender on March 27, 2020, 06:24:02 PM
It might become taboo to go out in public while sick.

We can only hope...
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: CopperTex on March 27, 2020, 06:40:11 PM
There will be a big lull in reality TV shows in about 5-6 months.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: deborah on March 27, 2020, 07:44:02 PM
There are interesting things happening here with our federation, and in the US with your union. In both places, the national government is being led or flouted by the states as they grapple with what is happening in their jurisdictions. I suspect that some permanent changes to the state/national political balance may result.

There is also the problem of global trade vs isolationism. The current US government has been committed to destroying as much of the global framework as possible - for instance the WTO appeals court was shut down by US administration action/inaction. Covid-19 may accelerate isolationism, or it may accelerate global trade, depending on how things work out in the coming months - for instance if the rest of the world (mainly China) need to swoop in with medicinal aid.

As for the world political balance, at the rate things are going at the moment, the US may be the biggest casualty of the virus. They were already going to exchange positions with China economically some time in the next 10 years - it could now happen overnight. This could be very disruptive over most of the world.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: MrThatsDifferent on March 27, 2020, 08:16:20 PM
Hmmm, I’m not sure what will change vs what wish will change.

I think the idea of “safe spaces” will increase. People may be more focused on owning property that they can prepare in case of an emergency.

I think there will be more teleworking than ever before. It’s going to be hard for companies to justify not doing it after letting people work like that for 6 months. Distance education will rise as well and everyone who has resisted it, must relent and let it be a viable option.

I think organizations and governments need to return to having doomsday scenario plans in place and drills run.

Once this disease is knocked out, and it will be, a lot will return as before and people may be more determined to be together, touch and interact. People will be starved for affection and tactile interaction. It just take 2 years for this to happen.

Humans seem to have short memories for this stuff. Travel will resume, so will cruises and all of that. We’ve never seen anything like this in our lifetime, and most likely won’t again. However, there could be an environmental catastrophe that is equivalent that we all need to be prepared for.

I’m hoping the world learns more how interdependent we all are on a global level, and governments need to work together more.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LWYRUP on March 27, 2020, 09:37:25 PM
I think we will see shifts, not wholesale changes.

A shift towards more remote working.
A shift towards fewer cruises.

This doesn't mean cruises will disappear.  Some people are probably mad they can't be on a cruise right now.  Others will probably swear off them for life. 

I expect folks will generally keep pantries slightly more stocked for a while, and maybe some people are learning cooking skills.  (I am making sourdough starter, so there's that.)  Gardening may be more popular. 

I also think we should see a... renewed appreciation for smaller towns and places that are less dense.  I'm glad I'm not an investor that just purchased an office building with ground floor retail in NY/DC/San Fran with a lot of leverage and a 3% cap rate, for example.  Not that I think these places will suddenly collapse.  But just that some people locked in their apartments for a few months may decide in a few years that they'd rather go back home to Michigan or something rather than throw down their life savings for a tiny condo. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Polaria on March 27, 2020, 09:37:37 PM
Oh, I almost forgot: insurance companies are absolutely fucked.

Some will avoid paying out on Covid-19 deaths by claiming force majeure. But a lot will spend a fortune defending themselves in court on that front, and a lot will spend a fortune paying out to the estates of people who die of cancer or blood loss while the hospitals are overrun, and I'd be willing to bet a sizeable amount of money that there isn't a single major insurer on the planet who took the time to work out their likely liabilities in a situation like this and made sure they were adequately funded.

With the obvious exceptions of things like flood insurance, the assumption for an insurance company is that liabilities are idiosyncratic rather than systemic, unlike banks. Bank defaults come in waves, because they're driven by crashes and recessions, but historically insurance liabilities have been mostly driven by individual circumstances. There are slow, sweeping changes, but nothing that can't be caught with careful annual assessment of the numbers. Insurance companies don't carry anything like the same level of assets on their books as banks, because they've never needed to and nobody's ever made them. Now they're going to see a spectacular, shocking systemic healthcare crisis, and the assets they hold to fund their suddenly exploding liabilities are going down the toilet along with the rest of the stock and bond markets.

I do not know how it is outside Europe, but pandemic and mortality shocks are taken into account in the determination of the capital European insurance companies have to hold.

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/IandF_SA2_SolvencyII_2016.pdf
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: expatartist on March 27, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
In Hong Kong we've hunkered down during the first wave of infections and are now going deeper inside our shells and tiny apartments as the second hits us. This isn't going away soon, and the effects will linger.

I don't think much will change. People said 9/11 would change the world forever.
The people of Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan may feel differently.
+1

I'm from but have lived outside the US mostly since the late 90s. The US response to 9/11 began to fatally weaken our international credibility. 2008 illustrated our financial leadership was untrustworthy. The 2016 election showed that enough of us were were greedy, racist idiots that our 'democratic system', excuse for numerous conflicts begun elsewhere, is unreliable.

Our delayed response to this inevitable pandemic will hamstring the US for a generation, domestically and internationally.

Also, this is a good read from MIT. Life will not "go back to normal" in a couple of weeks or months https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on March 28, 2020, 12:43:30 AM
I do not know how it is outside Europe, but pandemic and mortality shocks are taken into account in the determination of the capital European insurance companies have to hold.

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/IandF_SA2_SolvencyII_2016.pdf

This is somewhat reassuring. I assume the references to tier one/two/three capital are at least broadly equivalent to the same headings in banking regulation.

Now we get to see who did their risk modelling properly, and who did their risk modelling to get the regulators off their backs. That 99.5% confidence interval makes me think there will be at least a couple of insurers who put this type of scenario at a less than one in 200 probability.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on March 28, 2020, 04:32:36 AM
I think there's been a trend towards a simpler mode of living for years now - grow your own, tiny houses, self sufficiency, sustainability, buying loca etc. I think this is going to now dominate everything mainstream as people realise that total dependence on others for the basics (food, power, shelter) is not a good feeling. And can bite you in the arse in times of crisis. I think a whole lot of people are going to reassess the value of their shoe collection!

I also think the arts and crafts hobby stores are going to explode. People will learn new stuff while locked down and get into it when they're let out.

I think travel in the way we've been doing it has had it's day. People will still explore the planet, but international trips will be a big deal - and probably much more expensive. The idea of crowding as many people as possible into a tin tube will be gone. And border protections will be far tighter.

Theaters are done. No one is going to sit next to strangers and their viruses for hours now. I expect a lot of entertainment will now happen in much smaller groups - concerts, plays, restaurant dining etc
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Psychstache on March 28, 2020, 09:03:00 AM
I doubt we will see any long-term societal level behavior change. There will be some who choose to shift their habits, but most will be back to business as usual. It's like the old adage about a near-death experience changing you forever...for about 8 weeks.

I do agree with the increase in birth and divorce rate though.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LaineyAZ on March 28, 2020, 09:18:49 AM
.....

[/quote]
+1

I'm from but have lived outside the US mostly since the late 90s. The US response to 9/11 began to fatally weaken our international credibility. 2008 illustrated our financial leadership was untrustworthy. The 2016 election showed that enough of us were were greedy, racist idiots that our 'democratic system', excuse for numerous conflicts begun elsewhere, is unreliable.

Our delayed response to this inevitable pandemic will hamstring the US for a generation, domestically and internationally.

Also, this is a good read from MIT. Life will not "go back to normal" in a couple of weeks or months https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
[/quote]

Good article, thanks.  It points out that surveillance of the population will continue and become our new normal.  Public health will be the reason, and goodbye civil rights.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: NAVRESLDO on March 28, 2020, 09:21:56 AM
I would add that the world of sports is ripe for a change.  People may recognize that it is not an important part of their lives, they may not be as comfortable with large gatherings and the economics of big sports will shift. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Sibley on March 28, 2020, 10:01:18 AM
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Fru-Gal on March 28, 2020, 10:18:35 AM
I would really hope that the environmental improvements would stick around after this but not sure why they would. However as many have observed it has felt like we were at the peak of global travel for a while now. Even a few years ago I began wondering about the conference industry. It did not used to be the case that every company or organization had a conference or three.

Predictions for US:
Fewer & smaller cruise ships
Generational swing away from air travel
More train travel
More local government transparency with Zoom-type broadcast of all public meetings
More local democracy-related tech tools
More biking
More downtowns closed to cars
Widespread mask-wearing
Arabic eye makeup gaining popularity
Less conference business
Invention of new conferencing and telework tools inspired by massive online gaming systems and controllers
More population surveillance for pandemic control
Less exotic travel
More state and county border control
More home cooking
More live streaming
Facetiming the new normal phone call
More instant test results and ability to prove to others via smart phone or certificate that one is disease-free
More work from home
Better mental health for a generation
Better physical health for a generation
Massive drop in school shootings for a generation
More public health study
More interest in math
More saving and disaster prepping
More neighborhood and local focus

I'd like to think auto sales would go down but not sure why. If fewer are commuting, that could be one reason.


Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Ryo on March 28, 2020, 10:19:27 AM
How public transportation will fare will be an interesting question. In Asia and Europe particularly, but also in places like NY, trains and subways are essential.  An increase in wfh might reduce passenger load somewhat, but there will still be many needing to commute.  But will people still be ok with being in a packed train with hundreds of strangers?  Is there a viable alternative? The roads certainly won't be able to handle everyone suddenly trying to commute in cars, and the distances involved will make bicycles unfeasible for many.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LWYRUP on March 28, 2020, 10:21:24 AM
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.

Unlikely, I think.  The only two other real competitors would be the EU and China.  There's not really evidence that the EU on a whole has been handling this a whole lot better.  Some places in the EU have been more responsible than others, but you could say the same about US states.  Ditto China.  I've seen too many horrifying videos of China (check out PhD Parody on Twitter or the video archive at archive.nothingburger.today) to believe for one second that everything in China is as the CCP says it is.

I think a lot of people on this forum are misperceiving things due to their hatred of Trump.  The reality is there have been an enormous amount of screw ups from various actors (WHO, CDC, EU, major news outlets for not covering human rights abuses in China, wall street for not reacting to obvious news in February).  My county in the USA has been locked down for two weeks (and I've been self-isolating for longer) and we have fewer cases per capita than Sweden or London where folks have been much slower to respond.  Remember it was the UK that came up with the "do nothing herd immunity" plan and it was the Mexican President just a few days ago told everyone to live their lives like normal, etc.  There are also issues in many, many countries with testing (inc. some places where it is purposefully to being done to make the party in power look good) and misclassification of deaths.  This list includes first world countries such as Germany and Spain. 

I am not saying Trump is great or the US has done a good job.  I just think you are misperceiving how equally shitty of a job many other paces have done, and you are probably erroneously relying on the official statistics of confirmed cases and deaths even though there are systemic issues with undercounting almost everywhere.  Whether left-wing or right-wing, I find it useful to get my news from international sources and not just US-centric left wing or US-centric right wing forums.  USA response has been middle of the road compared to some of the more proactive places and some of the less proactive ones. 

EU / China / Japan / Russia also have issues with age structure due to many years of depressed birth rates and lower immigration.  So notice in the financial world the flight to safety to U.S. treasuries has continued despite our many, obvious mistakes.  Economics is really a dismal science and everywhere has problems. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: renata ricotta on March 28, 2020, 10:21:32 AM
Here are the things I personally plan on changing forever, and hope they turn into societal trends that bake into us during this time.

- Being much more vigilant about washing my hands really frequently. Before I was the standard after bathroom/before eating person, on autopilot. Now I wash my hands most times I pass a sink for any reason, count to 30, and pay attention to scrubbing every part of my hand. I keep my fingernails short to make it easier to keep them clean.

- Being vigilant about not touching my face - not something I paid attention to before.

- Getting my flu shot every. year. I've always been on board with them and got it most years, but it was occasionally inconvenient so didn't get around to it. The talk about how many people die per year from the flu doesn't make me less concerned about coronavirus, it makes me more concerned about seasonal flu.

- Giving blood every 8 weeks like clockwork.

- Insisting on working from home anytime I have any symptoms of anything. No more giving into pressure to be at the office while "getting over" a cold and still sniffly. I will see you when it is 100% over. This one particularly I hope sticks as a societal norm; you are not being brave or a good worker by coming into work sick. And now everybody has the infrastructure to work from home, so we should use it for this more often.

- Keeping more pantry products/nonperishables on hand (was pretty good about this before but could improve)

- Keeping more of a cash cushion, because it's clear almost anybody could be laid off without warning, and I don't want to have to sell at a loss
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on March 28, 2020, 10:24:51 AM
How public transportation will fare will be an interesting question. In Asia and Europe particularly, but also in places like NY, trains and subways are essential.  An increase in wfh might reduce passenger load somewhat, but there will still be many needing to commute.  But will people still be ok with being in a packed train with hundreds of strangers?  Is there a viable alternative? The roads certainly won't be able to handle everyone suddenly trying to commute in cars, and the distances involved will make bicycles unfeasible for many.

An increase in remote work would alleviate some of the burden on public transportation and roads. Hopefully, employers will be more inclined to give their employees the choice of working at home, if possible.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on March 28, 2020, 10:28:42 AM
- Insisting on working from home anytime I have any symptoms of anything. No more giving into pressure to be at the office while "getting over" a cold and still sniffly. I will see you when it is 100% over. This one particularly I hope sticks as a societal norm; you are not being brave or a good worker by coming into work sick. And now everybody has the infrastructure to work from home, so we should use it for this more often.

Yes. I shudder to think of the times that I let myself be bullied into working with a fever and hacking cough, including during the H1N1 outbreak 10 years ago, when my boss at the time started harassing me to come back in after one sick day (bonus: after listening to me hack up a lung outside his office all day, he never again questioned me about sick days). Working while sick doesn't make you a hero. It makes you an asshole if you have the choice to stay home, or it makes your boss an asshole if you don't.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on March 28, 2020, 10:29:05 AM
Arabic eye makeup gaining popularity

This is so far outside my area I just have to ask.

What makes a kind eye makeup distinctly arabic and why do you think it's popularity will increase during/after coronavirus, @Fru-Gal ?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Hotstreak on March 28, 2020, 10:45:36 AM
I am curious to see what happens with the gym.  I, and many other people, purchased exercise equipment when the gym shut down.  Will these people continue with home workouts and cancel their memberships?  Personally I will go to the gym for certain things, and keep doing other exercise at home.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Fru-Gal on March 28, 2020, 10:49:24 AM
Quote
This is so far outside my area I just have to ask.

What makes a kind eye makeup distinctly arabic and why do you think it's popularity will increase during/after coronavirus, @Fru-Gal ?

Arabic eye makeup is very beautiful and detailed with the entire focus on eyes and eyebrows because most of the face is covered with a scarf. The scarves are colorful and part of a coordinated head-to-toe fashion statement.

Changes in makeup are common in times of economic uncertainty, and makeup artist ingenuity quite high.

It's also likely that the reverse will be true with a trend toward natural or no makeup. However, if mask wearing becomes commonplace, focusing on just eye makeup will save a lot of time.

Also, beauty is a major source of social power that women wield over both sexes, for those who think it only frivolous. It's also a major industry.

Permanent eyebrow and eyeliner may become even more popular, just as false lashes and lash serums have. It's possible that colored contact wearing would increase.

Plastic surgery might decrease if mask wearing became popular enough, along with fear of infection and less disposable income.

Finally, masks themselves might be an area of innovation. Technology built in? Fashion choices? Filter and oxygen (or other gas LOL like vaping) choices?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Sibley on March 28, 2020, 10:58:52 AM
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.

Unlikely, I think.  The only two other real competitors would be the EU and China.  There's not really evidence that the EU on a whole has been handling this a whole lot better.  Some places in the EU have been more responsible than others, but you could say the same about US states.  Ditto China.  I've seen too many horrifying videos of China (check out PhD Parody on Twitter or the video archive at archive.nothingburger.today) to believe for one second that everything in China is as the CCP says it is.

I think a lot of people on this forum are misperceiving things due to their hatred of Trump.  The reality is there have been an enormous amount of screw ups from various actors (WHO, CDC, EU, major news outlets for not covering human rights abuses in China, wall street for not reacting to obvious news in February).  My county in the USA has been locked down for two weeks (and I've been self-isolating for longer) and we have fewer cases per capita than Sweden or London where folks have been much slower to respond.  Remember it was the UK that came up with the "do nothing herd immunity" plan and it was the Mexican President just a few days ago told everyone to live their lives like normal, etc.  There are also issues in many, many countries with testing (inc. some places where it is purposefully to being done to make the party in power look good) and misclassification of deaths.  This list includes first world countries such as Germany and Spain. 

I am not saying Trump is great or the US has done a good job.  I just think you are misperceiving how equally shitty of a job many other paces have done, and you are probably erroneously relying on the official statistics of confirmed cases and deaths even though there are systemic issues with undercounting almost everywhere.  Whether left-wing or right-wing, I find it useful to get my news from international sources and not just US-centric left wing or US-centric right wing forums.  USA response has been middle of the road compared to some of the more proactive places and some of the less proactive ones. 

EU / China / Japan / Russia also have issues with age structure due to many years of depressed birth rates and lower immigration.  So notice in the financial world the flight to safety to U.S. treasuries has continued despite our many, obvious mistakes.  Economics is really a dismal science and everywhere has problems.

We'll see. We're not through corona yet, we've barely begun. I'm certainly not a political science junky, I avoid the news until it's time for me to vote, then I do a bunch of research on candidates, platforms, etc. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on March 28, 2020, 11:23:11 AM
Quote
This is so far outside my area I just have to ask.

What makes a kind eye makeup distinctly arabic and why do you think it's popularity will increase during/after coronavirus, @Fru-Gal ?

Arabic eye makeup is very beautiful and detailed with the entire focus on eyes and eyebrows because most of the face is covered with a scarf. The scarves are colorful and part of a coordinated head-to-toe fashion statement.

Changes in makeup are common in times of economic uncertainty, and makeup artist ingenuity quite high.

It's also likely that the reverse will be true with a trend toward natural or no makeup. However, if mask wearing becomes commonplace, focusing on just eye makeup will save a lot of time.

Also, beauty is a major source of social power that women wield over both sexes, for those who think it only frivolous. It's also a major industry.

Permanent eyebrow and eyeliner may become even more popular, just as false lashes and lash serums have. It's possible that colored contact wearing would increase.

Plastic surgery might decrease if mask wearing became popular enough, along with fear of infection and less disposable income.

Finally, masks themselves might be an area of innovation. Technology built in? Fashion choices? Filter and oxygen (or other gas LOL like vaping) choices?

Very cool. Would have not have occurred to me, but now that you explain it, it makes complete sense there would be more focus on more elaborate makeup of just the eyes in a culture where most of the face is hidden, whether by niqabs or surgical masks.

Looking at japan, where wearing face masks has been socially acceptable for some time now (and in fact there is a social expectation to wear them when you are sick or might be sick), there definitely is a pretty broad range of fashion diversity available.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 28, 2020, 12:10:42 PM
I've been thinking. I wonder if this pandemic really will be the downfall of the "American Empire". There's been arguments that the USA's influence has been waning for a while, but given how poorly we're responding to the pandemic, it's quite possible that we will be the ones being isolated from the rest of the world. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US loses the world superpower status, then someone or something else will eventually step into that void.

Those changes would be both subtle and profound, and cut across pretty much everything. Though it would be quite amusing that Trump, who's so obsessed with with winning, power, money, status, etc - would go down in history as the guy who finished it all off.

Unlikely, I think.  The only two other real competitors would be the EU and China.  There's not really evidence that the EU on a whole has been handling this a whole lot better.  Some places in the EU have been more responsible than others, but you could say the same about US states.  Ditto China.  I've seen too many horrifying videos of China (check out PhD Parody on Twitter or the video archive at archive.nothingburger.today) to believe for one second that everything in China is as the CCP says it is.

I think a lot of people on this forum are misperceiving things due to their hatred of Trump.  The reality is there have been an enormous amount of screw ups from various actors (WHO, CDC, EU, major news outlets for not covering human rights abuses in China, wall street for not reacting to obvious news in February).  My county in the USA has been locked down for two weeks (and I've been self-isolating for longer) and we have fewer cases per capita than Sweden or London where folks have been much slower to respond.  Remember it was the UK that came up with the "do nothing herd immunity" plan and it was the Mexican President just a few days ago told everyone to live their lives like normal, etc.  There are also issues in many, many countries with testing (inc. some places where it is purposefully to being done to make the party in power look good) and misclassification of deaths.  This list includes first world countries such as Germany and Spain. 

I am not saying Trump is great or the US has done a good job.  I just think you are misperceiving how equally shitty of a job many other paces have done, and you are probably erroneously relying on the official statistics of confirmed cases and deaths even though there are systemic issues with undercounting almost everywhere.  Whether left-wing or right-wing, I find it useful to get my news from international sources and not just US-centric left wing or US-centric right wing forums.  USA response has been middle of the road compared to some of the more proactive places and some of the less proactive ones. 

EU / China / Japan / Russia also have issues with age structure due to many years of depressed birth rates and lower immigration.  So notice in the financial world the flight to safety to U.S. treasuries has continued despite our many, obvious mistakes.  Economics is really a dismal science and everywhere has problems.

Good post.  Don't let your ideological and personal biases dissuade you from the evidence in front of your eyes. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Noodle on March 28, 2020, 01:10:54 PM
People really want normalcy, so I suspect in the short run things will go back pretty much to pre-corona ways. What happens in these big cultural events, though, is that it forces people to try new things and some of those will stick afterwards. The example I always think of is that at my employer we had an event that had happened pretty much the same way for decades. There were better ways to do it, but long-time participants were extremely invested in it as a "tradition" and I wasn't willing to spend the capital that it would take to get them to try it a new way. Well, guess what, we had a major natural disaster and the repairs forced us to do it another way (which I picked) and the vast majority loved the new way which has stuck even though the conditions which forced us to try it have ended.

The pandemic is pushing past people's cognitive biases about predicting what will and won't work. So some businesses will realize that working from home leads to less expensive operations and happy staff. Some restaurants may discover that they really like doing take-out and delivery. Some people will discover they like working out outside enough that a gym membership isn't necessary. But this may also cause some people to realize how much they value human contact, so I don't think movie theaters and restaurants and churches are going anywhere.

My employer won't expand WFH much, I suspect. We own our land and facilities, so moving people home doesn't save any money in terms of rent. The IT department only wants people working on employer-owned hardware and given the enormous economic hit we're taking, we will not be in a position to expand our investment in it (right now everyone is working from their own desktop hardware they dragged home, and 90% of our jobs would require at least some time at the workplace so you would also need a computer there). Plus, our sector has also taken a huge hit and there will be a lot of people anxious to fill open jobs. So our employer has zero motivation to provide WFH for employee morale other than for very high performers as it will be pretty easy to replace people who quit.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Frugal D on March 28, 2020, 02:07:34 PM
Agree with these and would add, VOTING!

We already mail in our ballots in Washington state. It doesn't make sense to have people take time away from their day to go to a central location to vote. Some states have already delayed their primaries due to social distancing. All states will move to a mail-in model.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: stoaX on March 28, 2020, 02:23:25 PM
Agree with these and would add, VOTING!

We already mail in our ballots in Washington state. It doesn't make sense to have people take time away from their day to go to a central location to vote. Some states have already delayed their primaries due to social distancing. All states will move to a mail-in model.

Yup - I lived in California for 14 years..up until a few months ago.  I always voted by mail and loved it.  To actually see the ballot and have time to do some research and think about it was great.  I know their are those who argue against it - this is just my personal experience. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on March 28, 2020, 02:45:01 PM
Agree with these and would add, VOTING!

We already mail in our ballots in Washington state. It doesn't make sense to have people take time away from their day to go to a central location to vote. Some states have already delayed their primaries due to social distancing. All states will move to a mail-in model.

Yup - I lived in California for 14 years..up until a few months ago.  I always voted by mail and loved it.  To actually see the ballot and have time to do some research and think about it was great.  I know their are those who argue against it - this is just my personal experience.

I love going to the polls, but I think it's great to offer both options to increase access to the ballot. We voted to expand absentee voting in Michigan a couple of years ago, and it's been really popular so far. Our governor just signed an executive order to have absentee ballots mailed to all registered voters in communities having elections this May, which is excellent.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on March 28, 2020, 06:42:06 PM
I am curious to see what happens with the gym.  I, and many other people, purchased exercise equipment when the gym shut down.  Will these people continue with home workouts and cancel their memberships?  Personally I will go to the gym for certain things, and keep doing other exercise at home.
The home gym equipment purchased now will suffer the same fate home gym equipment purchased in the past: collecting dust in a corner somewhere.

As part of my business, I've followed up on those who leave my gym months later to see if they're still lifting. Those who did a single 3 month term it's about 10% - which is about the fraction of the population who are active on their own. 6 months makes it 25%, 9 months 50%, and 12+ months 90%. Now, we can argue about whether their experience at my gym makes them more dedicated and organised, or whether it's simply dedicated and organised people who stick around a long time.

But either way: most people need some combination of coaching and community to make them stick with things and get results. Now the fact is that if we're just thinking about health, 3 months at my gym gives them all the skills they need for a lifetime, they could get their own gear and do it on their own, maybe with a check in every 6 or 12 months for some general guidance. If we're talking performance, okay people need longer - but nobody needs to squat 180kg or run 5km in under 20' or have sixpack abs for their health, and health is what most people are after. Still, they seem to need a year for things to stick.


I really wish it weren't so. I'd love to have my gym just working people through their first 3-6 months (allowing extra time for those with zero physical training background, chronic injuries or illnesses to work around), then they go off and do it on their own and I get a new bunch. Many of us do jobs in the hopes of making an impact, and I'd rather help 100 people in a year than 25 people. But unfortunately it's just not so.



It's like that line in Good Will Hunting about getting a university education not for $100k but for $1.50 in late library fees. In theory that's possible, in practice extraordinarily few people manage it. Just think: we're going to pick some subject you don't know much about right now, and in 12 months' time you're going to sit down for 100-level university exams in that subject - how many people would pass? Now, extend that to a full Bachelor's degree, and give them four years... I'd be surprised if more than 1 in 100 people could do it.

Most of us need some sort of structure, some guidance and company along the way - classes to go to at scheduled times with an instructor who offers a planned curriculum and expects assignments at certain times, and so on. Coaching and community, lecturers and student peers, same thing really.


The gear will mostly gather dust, unfortunately. People need coaching and community.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 28, 2020, 06:57:59 PM

Most of us need some sort of structure, some guidance and company along the way - classes to go to at scheduled times with an instructor who offers a planned curriculum and expects assignments at certain times, and so on. .


Right.

Students don't know what they don't know that they must  know  to be competent in their chosen field.

Instructors know what to include in a curriculum so  their students learn what  they need to in a structured, sequential manner.

Widespread telelearning will still require instructors, professors, and  guest lecturers who have specialized, expert  knowledge.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on March 28, 2020, 07:00:12 PM
The academics I know tell me their online courses have a much lower completion rate. We humans are social animals - we need in-person accountability. "The class is at 9, the teacher / my friend expects me there, I'd better get moving."
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 28, 2020, 07:06:46 PM
The academics I know tell me their online courses have a much lower completion rate. We humans are social animals - we need in-person accountability. "The class is at 9, the teacher / my friend expects me there, I'd better get moving."

I've thought a bit about the desirability of the social, in-person aspect of education so I favor a hybrid model.

Let some education occur in classrooms/lecture halls and some via at-home computer monitors.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIPurpose on March 28, 2020, 07:23:00 PM
I doubt we will see any long-term societal level behavior change. There will be some who choose to shift their habits, but most will be back to business as usual. It's like the old adage about a near-death experience changing you forever...for about 8 weeks.

I do agree with the increase in birth and divorce rate though.

Had to make it to page 2 of this discussion before hitting this opinion.

Yep, I fully expect no long-term changes to societal behavior. I expect as soon as it's over that people start behaving the same as they did before. I know several people that are chomping at the bit to get out of the house and travel. (And as soon as it's clear I think they'll be cruising as soon as they can.)

This pandemic I think would have to go on about 2-5 years before it had any lasting effect.

As long as it ends by July with little to no rebound in the fall, we'll have a vaccine more than likely next year. All in time to make sure that everyone forgets this ever happened by 2022, and we all go back to consuming as much as we ever did before.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mountain mustache on March 28, 2020, 08:02:18 PM
whatever things change in society, I think they were already going to...this pandemic merely accelerated things in the direction they had already been heading.


Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on March 28, 2020, 09:09:10 PM
I've thought a bit about the desirability of the social, in-person aspect of education so I favor a hybrid model.
Seems fair to me. It'd get rid of those boring lectures where the lecturer just shows you a video. "Okay, watch this at home and we'll discuss it next time."


As long as it ends by July with little to no rebound in the fall, we'll have a vaccine more than likely next year. All in time to make sure that everyone forgets this ever happened by 2022, and we all go back to consuming as much as we ever did before.

We don't have a vaccine for SARS-Cov, which was the source of the outbreak in 2002-3. We still don't have vaccines against malaria, HIV, MERS, Hepatitis C, Lyme disease, West Nile, or Zika. Unfortunately, vaccines are not inevitable.

Again, whether there are lasting changes depends on the duration of this drama. As I noted above, even a relatively simple thing like gym, 3 months doesn't produce lasting changes - but 12 months does. More complex changes, well we'll see.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Trimatty471 on March 28, 2020, 09:16:41 PM
I am curious to see what happens with the gym.  I, and many other people, purchased exercise equipment when the gym shut down.  Will these people continue with home workouts and cancel their memberships?  Personally I will go to the gym for certain things, and keep doing other exercise at home.

My wish is that gyms have ala carte pricing.
When I had membership, I only went to classes.  But you cannot pay for classes without paying for the use of equipment.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on March 28, 2020, 09:49:19 PM
That's been tried. What then happens is that everyone chooses whichever is the cheapest membership, then some people try to sneak into other classes and areas they haven't paid for - so that staff are forever having to challenge people for their membership cards, which people forget and... it's all very unpleasant and erodes that community feel which is what people are really after in the gym.


And people who choose the cheapest membership tend not to go much anyway. Which is the basis of the success of the cheap unstaffed 24 hour gyms - they're banking on your not going. An industry relying on people not using its goods and services does not have a great long-term future, there's a massive turnover in gym businesses. But there it is.


This is the fitness industry. There's always someone five minutes closer or five dollars cheaper. This is why people will of course buy gym gear for home - but not use it much. Likewise, this is why people will do their paid work from home if not actually prohibited by managers from doing so.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: poetdereves on March 29, 2020, 07:27:38 AM
I don’t think many things will change with such a big swing. There may be small differences, but most people will go back to their normal life.

I’m surprised the most by the people think international travel is going to disappear. It may take a hit for a while during the beginning while people get back into their work habits and build up more PTO, but almost everyone I know still has an international trip planned within the next year and I have personally been browsing cheap tickets for trips I have been wanting to take.

Coronavirus was barely scary enough to the majority of people to start washing their hands. Even where I currently live people aren’t taking it very seriously and aren’t staying home and changing their habits as much as they should. I doubt many people will change their habits with most of the things mentioned.

Two things that will change for me personally:
-I i will find a good used car to pay cash for because a lot of people can’t afford their payments and have to get rid of the car they can’t afford.
-I will finally get cheap home gym equipment when people realize they bought all this stuff that takes up space that they aren’t using.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: expatartist on March 29, 2020, 09:16:31 AM
I don’t think many things will change with such a big swing. There may be small differences, but most people will go back to their normal life.

I’m surprised the most by the people think international travel is going to disappear. It may take a hit for a while during the beginning while people get back into their work habits and build up more PTO, but almost everyone I know still has an international trip planned within the next year and I have personally been browsing cheap tickets for trips I have been wanting to take.

Your lives will change not because you want them to, not because you'll try, but because the rest of the world will change whether you want it to or not. So your choices will change, because prices and the options they reflect will be different. Income opportunities for some of you will change. The materials and labor and systems that have made your life what it is so far, are and will continue to be affected by this pandemic for several years. Entire industries will change. The people who make your clothes, your furniture, the breathe the toxic waste created by the goods that power many economies linked with yours, will die of this at incredibly high rates. Their nations will be devastated.

I worked in the travel industry for a handful of years: as a writer, photographer, for a tour company. Everyone I know who works in the travel industry knows this is the end of the business as they've known it. Every business that depends on international flows of currency and goods and / or people will be affected.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ender on March 29, 2020, 10:01:48 AM
I'm really surprised how many people expect this to have large sweeping changes as a result.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: wenchsenior on March 29, 2020, 10:09:57 AM
I don't know how much will change other than this will exacerbate the current trend of minimizing humans doing jobs, and trying to do more jobs with machines or automated functions.

I suspect any other changes will last exactly as long as it takes for the people who are young teens and younger to grow up and start running things.  People have INCREDIBLY short memories are extremely bad at learning from history.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: bmjohnson35 on March 29, 2020, 10:35:42 AM

Of course, it largely depends on how this all plays out over the next year or so.  I do believe we will see changes as industries  and economies are impacted and have to adapt.  Furthermore, I would hope that we learn from this experience and be better prepared for future incidents of this nature. 

The cruise industry will see a major impact.  One of Royal Caribbean mega ship's costs around 1.4 billion to build.  Having to park their entire fleet for 1-4 months is huge.  How long will it take for people to start sailing again? Will they reduce their fleet? Will some cruise lines fail? Will they have to change their business strategy completely?  I don't claim to know the answers, but I don't think it will be "business as usual" in the future.

I think home delivery services will continue to flourish following this pandemic.

I suspect international travel and travel in general may diminish for a while.

I suspect we may see masks being worn more often in public in the US, similar to what we see in the asian countries.

As others have stated, I think that some changes were inevitable and this pandemic may only serve to accelerate changes in society.

BJ


Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 29, 2020, 11:27:07 AM
Oh one thing I definitely expect to see: prepping will be very cool going forward. When you can’t rely on politicians or industrial leaders to exercise leadership, it falls to individuals, families and smaller social units like churches to do so.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on March 29, 2020, 11:30:03 AM
I'm really surprised how many people expect this to have large sweeping changes as a result.

Agreed, I can't see so much sweeping changes as an acceleration of changes, at least in the immediate future.

What will be interesting is what happens when very young people whose very basis of understanding of the world grow up and become a major economic/political force.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LWYRUP on March 29, 2020, 11:34:31 AM
Oh one thing I definitely expect to see: prepping will be very cool going forward. When you can’t rely on politicians or industrial leaders to exercise leadership, it falls to individuals, families and smaller social units like churches to do so.

Yep.  I started prepping in February when I listened to the WHO, CDC and major politicians (from many different countries, of various ideologies) and then compared it to the on-the-ground reports I was reading on reddit (videos from human rights activists, local reports, links to recently published medical research and interviews with epidemiologists) and realized that the powers that be were either totally incompetent or lying to the public or both.  I realized I needed to protect my family on my own.

Lesson learned.   
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: expatartist on March 29, 2020, 11:50:25 AM
Things will to an extent depend on what your life is like now, how connected it is to the rest of the world, and what vaccines and treatments are found for COVID-19. The estimate is 18 months or more, by which time we will have had several waves. North America is still in its first wave. NYC (where #45 left residency) has received 2% of the aid requested of the federal government; Florida (where #45 has just moved residency) received 200% of the aid it requested. It is evident worldwide he is unreliable.

The perspectives on this thread may be different in a month or two. A friend recently lost both his parents in Italy to the virus, in a town devastated by it; another was stuck in West Africa as her father was dying of it. I know a half-dozen people who have wrestled with it and survived. But many areas of the US are looking to be headed for a disaster unseen anywhere in the world so far outside Northern Italy.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 29, 2020, 11:56:15 AM
Oh one thing I definitely expect to see: prepping will be very cool going forward. When you can’t rely on politicians or industrial leaders to exercise leadership, it falls to individuals, families and smaller social units like churches to do so.

I think of the husbandry of the Mu$tachian ethos as  prepping  absent paranoia.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: marble_faun on March 29, 2020, 12:20:11 PM
I don't agree that videos will replace the experience of traditional, in-person college education.  From what I've seen, students have mourned the loss of community as everything was abruptly cancelled.  Ideally college isn't just about absorbing facts.  It's a social world with a texture to it, and a telecommuting app is a pretty pale substitute.  If anything, the coronavirus may delay the embrace of distance learning as in-person interaction becomes more prized and valued.

I do think more people will learn to cut their own hair!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: scottnews on March 29, 2020, 12:27:26 PM
Baby boom in 9 months
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 29, 2020, 12:35:16 PM
I don't agree that videos will replace the experience of traditional, in-person college education.  From what I've seen, students have mourned the loss of community as everything was abruptly cancelled.  Ideally college isn't just about absorbing facts.  It's a social world with a texture to it, and a telecommuting app is a pretty pale substitute.  If anything, the coronavirus may delay the embrace of distance learning as in-person interaction becomes more prized and valued.


 I'd arrange the hybrid  system I posted upthread  so that at the beginning of each semester all the new classmates would be taught in a classroom where they would interact in person and get to know each other so that later on, when telelearning, they would know who it was they were communicating with.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 29, 2020, 12:39:06 PM
Baby boom in 9 months

Yes.

the guardian
2 days ago


 A global shortage of condoms is looming, the world's biggest producer has said, after a coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut down production.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on March 29, 2020, 12:46:17 PM
Baby boom in 9 months

Only for people currently without children...
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: bacchi on March 29, 2020, 03:44:36 PM
I'm not convinced a baby boom will happen. Do baby booms happen during recessions or depressions? There was a boom after WW2 but not in the early 30s, when >20% were unemployed and had plenty of time.

Speaking of the depression, it was a defining moment for people who grew up then. Many of our great+-grandparents kept their penny pinching ways their entire lives. This has the potential to do the same (and not only in financial ways).
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: wanderlustNW on March 29, 2020, 03:50:21 PM
I think people will always be leery of group situations. Already I see myself with 12 months of social distancing not wanting to participate in going to a large concert, or any other kind of large scale thing where many people gather. My husband is even worse and it's only been a few weeks. I think we'll be more hermits than we already were. When we walk the dog in the neighborhood we are always weaving from one side of the street to the other just so we don't have to pass closely to someone else.

I also think this is going to fundamentally change eating out and bars. All around our city places are boarded up, many of them for good. People just aren't going to return in large number any time soon to this kind of establishment. Even though we flatten the curve, COVID infections are still going to happen until we get some immunization, and people are going to avoid these places.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: marble_faun on March 29, 2020, 04:26:43 PM
Yeah, not sure about a baby boom in the midst of a pandemic.  For one thing, it's not good to run a fever while pregnant, so given the choice, a lot of people might avoid conceiving at this time. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Much Fishing to Do on March 29, 2020, 04:44:23 PM
I've never understood the handshake (I will honor you that I don;t know at all with physical intimacy and giving you any cold I have) or cruise ships (voluntary physical imprisonment in a seasick environment which, if anyone happens to be present with a stomach flu, makes the seasickness seem a whole lot worse). 

I guess what I'm saying is, I don't know how they survived and thrived before, so no idea if they will after.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: merula on March 29, 2020, 04:52:37 PM
I do not know how it is outside Europe, but pandemic and mortality shocks are taken into account in the determination of the capital European insurance companies have to hold.

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/IandF_SA2_SolvencyII_2016.pdf

This is somewhat reassuring. I assume the references to tier one/two/three capital are at least broadly equivalent to the same headings in banking regulation.

Now we get to see who did their risk modelling properly, and who did their risk modelling to get the regulators off their backs. That 99.5% confidence interval makes me think there will be at least a couple of insurers who put this type of scenario at a less than one in 200 probability.

What kind of insurance do you see as being impacted? Are you talking about the US?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Channel-Z on March 29, 2020, 05:24:20 PM
I don't see people social-distancing in my neighborhood, despite the soft lock-down. Delivery drivers are more abundant around here than ever, so people aren't cooking from home either. People are itching to return to their normal lives.

The virus has simply hastened the end of a lot of service jobs that were doomed anyway.

A fundamental question will be your medical privacy vs. the public right to know. At what point does your health history and your current condition become part of the surveillance state, the transit process.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: CopperTex on March 29, 2020, 05:46:11 PM
I'm not convinced a baby boom will happen. Do baby booms happen during recessions or depressions? There was a boom after WW2 but not in the early 30s, when >20% were unemployed and had plenty of time.

There will definitely be a baby boom due to the close contact of couples combined with boredom. I've been a newborn photographer in south Louisiana for 16 years. There was a HUGE baby boom (aka business boom) nine months after Hurricane Katrina as well as another one nine months after the Saints won the Super Bowl.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 29, 2020, 06:24:45 PM
Baby boom in 9 months

Only for people currently without children...

Yep.  For those of us with children screaming in the background while we're trying to attend phone meetings, the term infanticide occasionally rings strongly through the brain.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on March 29, 2020, 06:49:21 PM
I agree about telehealth and cruise ships. The cruise ship industry is in for a long contraction.

- Re: telehealth, will we be able to talk with foreign doctors that have been vetted by our insurance provider? I.e., can I chat with a less expensive German doctor about my cough?

- Universities closing? No way. Look at all the seniors that are saddened about missing their last semester. Going to a U is not only about an education; it's also about interacting with thousands of your peers. There will always be people willing to pay for that. There are also many people that just don't do well with distance education.

- Hospitals will be propped up with government funds if necessary. There might even be a short spike of medical equipment purchasing as hospitals and local governments prepare for the next pandemic.


Other things:

- Travel will decline. Not only will the recession decrease travel but so will the desire to spend time in exotic locales with limited medical coverage.

- Will telework increase?

I would imagine tele-medicine will operate much like in-person medicine.  The provider will have to accept your insurance.  It's unlikely that German doctor will (assuming you aren't in Germany). 

~~~~

I'd like to believe that telework will become more common.  Now that most employers have been forced to give it a trial run, they will hopefully see that it works just fine, and may even save them money in the long run.  Hopefully when we are back to mostly normal, hopefully employers will offer at least things like once-per-week telework.  I wouldn't be surprised if business travel also sees cuts as people realize that video meetings work and save a ton of money. 

On a less bright note, I can see a hikikomori phenomenon. People are learning that they can do nearly everything from home, and I think some will struggle to let go of that, becoming shut-ins, or nearly so.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see a rise in agoraphobia.  People are conditioning themselves to believe that Out There is scary and dangerous.  They are wiping down everything that comes in the house, and not without some reason.  I think in some minds, especially those already prone to anxiety, that wiring my be a challenge to undo. 

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Morning Glory on March 29, 2020, 07:17:38 PM
Yeah, not sure about a baby boom in the midst of a pandemic.  For one thing, it's not good to run a fever while pregnant, so given the choice, a lot of people might avoid conceiving at this time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/the-world-could-be-running-out-of-condoms-because-of-pandemic
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 29, 2020, 07:38:04 PM



I'd like to believe that telework will become more common.  Now that most employers have been forced to give it a trial run, they will hopefully see that it works just fine, and may even save them money in the long run.  Hopefully when we are back to mostly normal, hopefully employers will offer at least things like once-per-week telework. 

Yes.

A reporter for Bloomberg News said the genie is out of the bottle and  not easily going back in.

 WFH is LONG overdue.

If I were brought in as a new CEO my first priority would be a WFH experiment for as many employees as possible.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: marble_faun on March 29, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
Yeah, not sure about a baby boom in the midst of a pandemic.  For one thing, it's not good to run a fever while pregnant, so given the choice, a lot of people might avoid conceiving at this time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/the-world-could-be-running-out-of-condoms-because-of-pandemic

Well, that's not good!

Thinking more about this, pregnant women also need to worry about the medical system being overwhelmed.  It would be a very scary time to be having a baby.

I have heard that infertility treatments are getting cancelled, so in nine months there will definitely be fewer babies born through IVF, etc.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on March 29, 2020, 09:01:48 PM
Yeah, not sure about a baby boom in the midst of a pandemic.  For one thing, it's not good to run a fever while pregnant, so given the choice, a lot of people might avoid conceiving at this time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/the-world-could-be-running-out-of-condoms-because-of-pandemic

Well, that's not good!

Thinking more about this, pregnant women also need to worry about the medical system being overwhelmed.  It would be a very scary time to be having a baby.

I have heard that infertility treatments are getting cancelled, so in nine months there will definitely be fewer babies born through IVF, etc.

I have a friend due in about 3 weeks.  She seems to be taking it all fairly in stride, but I'd be terrified.  Even just having to go to the hospital (and have a tiny, vulnerable baby spend any time there) would be scary.  It seems hospitals are limiting it to one person in the delivery room as kind of an attempt at social distancing, which sucks for those who hoped to use a doula. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on March 30, 2020, 02:36:36 AM
Over the weekend, I was thinking about how and when the world might return to normal after this.

I'm still convinced it will take a long, long time.

I'm in Ireland, where we shut down all the pubs and sporting events when we had two confirmed deaths and 223 confirmed cases. We went into full Italian-style lockdown (no going out except for essential work, essential shopping, and exercise within 2km of your house, all enforced by police patrols) when there had been nineteen confirmed deaths. We're going to remain in this status for at least a few weeks.

There is no fucking way once the lockdown finishes that I will be allowed to fly to another country and come home without any restrictions. No chance. I honestly expect the government to reserve the right to physically quarantine all entrants and returners to the country for a two-week period, and that could last for a year or more. It's going to be the same across Europe, I suspect - and Americans who'd otherwise head to Europe are not going to be impressed with the idea of spending two weeks in a sterile room.

It's going to be the same for any country that manages to arrest the spread of the virus. Once the lockdown succeeds, the next step is to rigorously control and monitor all entrants to ensure that any new vectors are found and isolated as fast as possible before they have a chance to restart the process. And if getting on a plane this summer means I have to spend two weeks in isolation at my destination, and two weeks in isolation when I get home, I'll get in a car and head to the Atlantic coast to visit some of my favourite breweries and go for a few runs in one of the most beautiful places in the world - and support the Irish economy and tourist industry by keeping my money within Ireland.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: 2sk22 on March 30, 2020, 02:48:04 AM
It's going to be the same for any country that manages to arrest the spread of the virus. Once the lockdown succeeds, the next step is to rigorously control and monitor all entrants to ensure that any new vectors are found and isolated as fast as possible before they have a chance to restart the process. And if getting on a plane this summer means I have to spend two weeks in isolation at my destination, and two weeks in isolation when I get home, I'll get in a car and head to the Atlantic coast to visit some of my favourite breweries and go for a few runs in one of the most beautiful places in the world - and support the Irish economy and tourist industry by keeping my money within Ireland.

I agree - I just don't see international travel returning to the old levels in a short time. For the next year and a half, I expect that all travel will be constrained to those who have a real need. Eventually after a vaccine is created and memories fade, perhaps some level of leisure travel will return.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on March 30, 2020, 06:44:39 AM
It's going to be the same for any country that manages to arrest the spread of the virus. Once the lockdown succeeds, the next step is to rigorously control and monitor all entrants to ensure that any new vectors are found and isolated as fast as possible before they have a chance to restart the process. And if getting on a plane this summer means I have to spend two weeks in isolation at my destination, and two weeks in isolation when I get home, I'll get in a car and head to the Atlantic coast to visit some of my favourite breweries and go for a few runs in one of the most beautiful places in the world - and support the Irish economy and tourist industry by keeping my money within Ireland.

I agree - I just don't see international travel returning to the old levels in a short time. For the next year and a half, I expect that all travel will be constrained to those who have a real need. Eventually after a vaccine is created and memories fade, perhaps some level of leisure travel will return.

Maybe I'm missing something, but once the virus is pretty much everywhere, why would travel still be an issue?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on March 30, 2020, 06:49:30 AM
It's going to be the same for any country that manages to arrest the spread of the virus. Once the lockdown succeeds, the next step is to rigorously control and monitor all entrants to ensure that any new vectors are found and isolated as fast as possible before they have a chance to restart the process. And if getting on a plane this summer means I have to spend two weeks in isolation at my destination, and two weeks in isolation when I get home, I'll get in a car and head to the Atlantic coast to visit some of my favourite breweries and go for a few runs in one of the most beautiful places in the world - and support the Irish economy and tourist industry by keeping my money within Ireland.

I agree - I just don't see international travel returning to the old levels in a short time. For the next year and a half, I expect that all travel will be constrained to those who have a real need. Eventually after a vaccine is created and memories fade, perhaps some level of leisure travel will return.

Maybe I'm missing something, but once the virus is pretty much everywhere, why would travel still be an issue?

Abundance of caution. Just because the virus is everywhere doesn’t mean that everyone will have been exposed, and local health authorities in normal high-traffic tourist destinations may not want to risk an influx of tourists who may overload the local facilities.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Miss Prim on March 30, 2020, 07:24:11 AM
I'm guessing that you will see a shortage of people going into the healthcare field.  No one will want to sign up to work in another pandemic and there will be others.  We were already facing a shortage of laboratory workers the last few years, and actually, with all our protections in place such as hoods to work under where the air is sucked up and out and gloves and PPE for tests where a splash could occur, we are probably safer than the front line workers.

If this happens, we are all screwed! 

                                                                      Miss Prim
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Bateaux on March 30, 2020, 07:58:42 AM
I'm not convinced a baby boom will happen. Do baby booms happen during recessions or depressions? There was a boom after WW2 but not in the early 30s, when >20% were unemployed and had plenty of time.

There will definitely be a baby boom due to the close contact of couples combined with boredom. I've been a newborn photographer in south Louisiana for 16 years. There was a HUGE baby boom (aka business boom) nine months after Hurricane Katrina as well as another one nine months after the Saints won the Super Bowl.

It will be interesting to see if there is one.  The birth rate has fallen so much already nationwide.   Maybe they're social distancing even for baby making.

By the way, I see you're from Mandeville.   I was hoping to ride the Tammany Trace today and they are shutting it down.  A normal Monday you'd almost have it to yourself.  I guess it's been busier lately.   A friend and I rode our bikepacking rigs on the Mississippi River levee on gravel yesterday.  I was hoping to get the road bike out today.  Hopefully Covid-19 makes the people who aren't working now appreciate it and want to strive for early retirement.  We're getting close to our retirement time and all this makes us want it more.  We considered  Mandeville for our retirement home as a nearby bike trail was a requirement.   We decided to buy in Citrus County Florida.  Many nearby paved and dirt trails.  Boating culture and plenty of festivals.   Inverness a local town reminds me of old Covington.   Crystal River a local waterfront reminds me of Mandeville/Madisonville.   If it doesn't work out, most likely we'll come back to Mandeville.   We lived on the Amite River in Port Vincent for 28 years.  We've had enough of the flooding.  Take care.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on March 30, 2020, 08:01:13 AM
The most likely outcome in Ireland will be that the lockdown is released when the government believes the virus has stopped spreading. That will probably be long before everyone in the country is exposed.

Once cases slow down to a trickle, and hospitals are back in control of the situation, governments will start loosening restrictions. But that will happen to different extents and at different times - Ireland may be internally ready to reopen at a point in time where the US is still in the midst of chaos. There's no way anyone's getting into Ireland at that point without a very thorough examination.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: thesis on March 30, 2020, 08:02:49 AM
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: br89 on March 30, 2020, 08:09:39 AM
Baby boom in 9 months

Men keep saying this but absolutely no women I know think this lol. A lot of my friends were actually trying to get pregnant before this and now 100% of them have stopped because:

(1) being pregnant compromises your immune system. Who wants to compromise their immune system during a global pandemic??

(2)WHO ON EARTH wants to have to go to the doctor's regularly for all of the pre-natal check ups you need right now

(3) and then you'd have to go to an overwhelmed hospital to give birth or take your chances at home and pray nothing goes wrong. The United States had one of the worst maternal mortality rates in the developed world before this and now it will only get worse. Hard pass.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: renata ricotta on March 30, 2020, 09:56:56 AM
    ...
    • Anti-vaxxers will largely disappear, and those who don't will be heavily ostracized
    ...


I truly hope this is the case, but the number of people who are resisting science and public health experts tooth and nail right now (including sometimes on this very forum) is very disheartening. If we can at least just reduce their number, and more people who believe in vaccines generally but don't bother to get their flu shots, I'll be happy.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 30, 2020, 10:29:08 AM



I truly hope this is the case, but the number of people who are resisting science and public health experts tooth and nail right now (including sometimes on this very forum) is very disheartening. If we can at least just reduce their number, and more people who believe in vaccines generally but don't bother to get their flu shots, I'll be happy.

Would that what you hope for will obtain.

I'm pessimistic.

I doubt reason will prevail.

I am afraid there is no end to persistent irrationality that thwarts one's acceptance of science and its proofs.



"Rodney Howard-Browne of The River at Tampa Bay Church in Florida mocked people concerned about the disease as 'pansies' and insisted he would only shutter the doors to his packed church 'when the rapture is taking place.'" Katherine Stewart



"On March 15, Guillermo Maldonado, who calls himself an 'apostle' and hosted Mr. Trump earlier this year at a campaign event at his Miami megachurch, urged his congregants to show up for worship services in person. 'Do you believe God would bring his people to his house to be contagious with the virus? Of course not,' he said."  Katherine Stewart
 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: asauer on March 30, 2020, 10:32:20 AM
I think there some stubborn employers (mine included) who think they only way to be productive is to be in the office.  I think these exercise will move the needle significantly for them.  Not a night and day change but I'm sure many businesses will see that people can actually be connected and productive while working online.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cassie on March 30, 2020, 10:45:28 AM
Not getting your kids vaccinated is crazy. I see flu shots in a different category as many years they aren’t very effective and you need to get them yearly. I hope that the schools get tough and don’t allow all the exceptions for vaccines. Kids that truly medically can’t get them need to be protected by herd immunity.  I would be surprised if we are able to come up with a effective vaccine for this virus. I hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on March 30, 2020, 10:46:51 AM
"Rodney Howard-Browne of The River at Tampa Bay Church in Florida mocked people concerned about the disease as 'pansies' and insisted he would only shutter the doors to his packed church 'when the rapture is taking place.'" Katherine Stewart


I'd like to note that this was the same pastor who told his congregants that God would multiply their toilet rolls.
https://www.newsweek.com/conservative-pastor-who-refused-close-church-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-suggests-god-will-help-1494903 (https://www.newsweek.com/conservative-pastor-who-refused-close-church-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-suggests-god-will-help-1494903)

Quote
In a clip posted to Twitter, pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, leader of the Florida-based Revival Ministries International, told his congregation that "this should be a time of supernatural sustenance, where what you have in your hand will multiply."

"And every day there will be multiplications," he continued. "You look at your toilet paper and you think I'm going to run out of toilet paper, but you have another roll where that one was and you don't know how did that even take place."

Howard-Brown added: "Are the toilet paper rolls getting together and having families now? What is taking place? When you look again, there's still enough. You think you're going to run out but when you look again there's still enough. That's supernatural sustenance."

There's really not much hope other than that people like this do not constitute the majority.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Aegishjalmur on March 30, 2020, 11:14:00 AM
I wonder if the number of professional sports teams will be reduced, or if not, the stupidly high salaries. Hard to afford to pay millions if there is no revenue from ticket sales, and lower merchandise sales.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: The Fake Cheap on March 30, 2020, 05:00:05 PM
I don't see people social-distancing in my neighborhood, despite the soft lock-down. Delivery drivers are more abundant around here than ever, so people aren't cooking from home either. People are itching to return to their normal lives.

The virus has simply hastened the end of a lot of service jobs that were doomed anyway.

A fundamental question will be your medical privacy vs. the public right to know. At what point does your health history and your current condition become part of the surveillance state, the transit process.

I really feel like they should start naming and shaming those who break their quarantine.  If anything it might help act as a deterrent to others thinking of doing the same. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 30, 2020, 09:21:53 PM
"Rodney Howard-Browne of The River at Tampa Bay Church in Florida mocked people concerned about the disease as 'pansies' and insisted he would only shutter the doors to his packed church 'when the rapture is taking place.'" Katherine Stewart


I'd like to note that this was the same pastor who told his congregants that God would multiply their toilet rolls.
https://www.newsweek.com/conservative-pastor-who-refused-close-church-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-suggests-god-will-help-1494903 (https://www.newsweek.com/conservative-pastor-who-refused-close-church-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-suggests-god-will-help-1494903)

Quote
In a clip posted to Twitter, pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, leader of the Florida-based Revival Ministries International, told his congregation that "this should be a time of supernatural sustenance, where what you have in your hand will multiply."

"And every day there will be multiplications," he continued. "You look at your toilet paper and you think I'm going to run out of toilet paper, but you have another roll where that one was and you don't know how did that even take place."

Howard-Brown added: "Are the toilet paper rolls getting together and having families now? What is taking place? When you look again, there's still enough. You think you're going to run out but when you look again there's still enough. That's supernatural sustenance."

There's really not much hope other than that people like this do not constitute the majority.


Coronavirus US: Florida pastor is arrested for still holding

www.dailymail.co.uk

13 hours ago


 Florida Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne turned himself in to authorities on ... with unlawful assembly and violation of a public health emergency order. ... services with hundreds of worshippers despite social distancing orders put in ... as Mayor de Blasio warns people may be fined $500 for not staying home.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Zette on March 31, 2020, 02:11:38 AM
I admit this one is wishful thinking:
Research on coronavirus results in a cure for the common cold, leading to the elimination of those viruses and the bankruptcy of cold medication companies.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on March 31, 2020, 02:18:41 AM
I admit this one is wishful thinking:
Research on coronavirus results in a cure for the common cold, leading to the elimination of those viruses and the bankruptcy of cold medication companies.

I'd love to see that happening - my wife is a teacher in primary school, and brings home every cold anyone in her class has (except somehow without actually contracting it herself), so I spend October to April with a sniffle.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: nath on March 31, 2020, 03:49:44 AM
Some people will become very rich out of this.  Imagine being invested in the exact company that comes up with the vaccines.
But a lot of people, will drop a lot of money and go broke. This is a worldwide economic meltdown like nothing ever seen before. If you were a successful but leveraged business owner, or someone who was already living on the edge financially with minimal savings and huge debt, you have a lot to lose.
Most people will be fine for now, as the banks are giving people payment ‘holidays’ on their mortgages and car loans, but that won’t last much longer than about 6 months, and it’s just kicking the can down the road.
There is a lot of people with a lot of debt, $million dollar mortgages and so on, and it won’t look pretty.
This will have wide ranging effects. People will not have funds to buy goods, services, cars, houses etc. all over the world.

Other things, travel will be very limited for most people for at least 12 months. I personally would want a needle in my arm guaranteeing I won’t catch Covid19 before I go anywhere interesting. And would hope the locals in my travel destination have also had it..

Another big one that could hit later, inflation!
Every country on the planet is spending up big on stimulus and this will very likely drive up the prices of everything, and within a year or 2 increase interest rates.
We may see anomaly’s too, like food pricing skyrocketing but asset values diminishing.
If one government goes too far, such as a country like the UK being too generous with government spending, it could cause their currency to go into hyperinflation and then cause a 2nd financial meltdown within a couple years.
(Worst case scenario of course!)
It really is a knife edge
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on March 31, 2020, 04:00:53 AM
I really don't mean to be provocative, but depending on how the US responds to the next phases of the pandemic, I wonder how that will impact the gun rights movement in America. Over here, we are in country-wide lockdown enforced (in different ways in different areas) by the police. New crimes have been created, such as "coronavirus coughing" (deliberately coughing at people and claiming you have coronavirus). I know other countries are tracking mobile data to track transmission.

This seems to me like a classic case of the kind of tyrannical government gun supporters want the right to fight against. Will the lack of such controls be painted as a win by gun supporters? Or, if they come in, will the gun supporters take to the streets to fight it? If not, will their tyrannical government argument no longer hold as much weight?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on March 31, 2020, 10:24:04 AM
I imagine we will see a spike in divorces too as spouses are spending a lot more time together under stressful circumstances.

I've heard this.  For us, so far (2.5 weeks in), it's the total opposite.  We were getting snippy, feeling a lot like roommates and not spouses.  It's hard when you are middle aged, you've got full time (demanding) jobs, offset schedules (both work and sleep), two kids in two schools, both kids pretty demanding.  We literally never got to talk.

Now we get to cook lunch and dinner together most days, and we eat lunch together and talk, and we walk the dog together.  It's awesome.

from Kyle:
Quote
So some people have all day free, and others are now more productive without the distraction of the open plan office, and they don't have the commute. This gives people more spare time.

THIS.  I probably am putting in fewer total hours but get a TON more done (which will likely decrease when I have to help homeschooling the kids).  The lack of open office distractions is huge.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on March 31, 2020, 10:30:17 AM
The academics I know tell me their online courses have a much lower completion rate. We humans are social animals - we need in-person accountability. "The class is at 9, the teacher / my friend expects me there, I'd better get moving."
Yep.  I'm pretty self-motivated (back to the gym topic).  But this is how I manage:

1. I have running books and training plans, and a training plan that I paid for from my running coach.  So, I have a running calendar and an app.  (Except my races were canceled so I'm going to cut back on the long run day.)

2.  I have weights and plenty of videos that I can do.  So...I printed out a lifting plan, integrated it with my running plan.

Thus, I have a calendar, and I get up and know exactly what I'm doing that day.

But man, as soon as it's safe to get back to the gym and in the weightlifting classes, yoga classes, or pool?  And as soon as the track is open and I can run with my buddies safely again?  I'm there.  I'm still paying for my gym memberships...
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on March 31, 2020, 01:20:36 PM
I don't see people social-distancing in my neighborhood, despite the soft lock-down. Delivery drivers are more abundant around here than ever, so people aren't cooking from home either. People are itching to return to their normal lives.

The virus has simply hastened the end of a lot of service jobs that were doomed anyway.

A fundamental question will be your medical privacy vs. the public right to know. At what point does your health history and your current condition become part of the surveillance state, the transit process.

I really feel like they should start naming and shaming those who break their quarantine.  If anything it might help act as a deterrent to others thinking of doing the same.

Two words for you:


Face Tattoos


(https://images.baklol.com/4ca784f01df416cf33467d9d63a36d9a1437732469.jpg)


Figure that would solve the problem right quickly.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: aspiringnomad on March 31, 2020, 02:27:54 PM
There's no way anyone's getting into Ireland at that point without a very thorough examination.

Or a negative covid test result. I imagine the logistics of procuring sufficient tests and having would-be travelers wait 15 minutes to an hour for their results isn't ideal, but it's probably better than shutting the border entirely until there's a vaccine.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Luz on March 31, 2020, 03:16:07 PM
Baby boom in 9 months

Men keep saying this but absolutely no women I know think this lol. A lot of my friends were actually trying to get pregnant before this and now 100% of them have stopped because:

(1) being pregnant compromises your immune system. Who wants to compromise their immune system during a global pandemic??

(2)WHO ON EARTH wants to have to go to the doctor's regularly for all of the pre-natal check ups you need right now

(3) and then you'd have to go to an overwhelmed hospital to give birth or take your chances at home and pray nothing goes wrong. The United States had one of the worst maternal mortality rates in the developed world before this and now it will only get worse. Hard pass.

There's a lot of anxiety surrounding pregnancy and COVID-19. I'd probably put off trying to conceive for a few months too. But I'm set to give birth in a few months and I find the following hopeful:

(1) From what I understand, being pregnant alters your immune system, with periods of heightened immunity during the first trimester/closer to delivery, and lower immunity during the second trimester. I'm not sure if pregnant women are usually at higher risk of contracting viral respiratory illnesses or they are just at higher risk of complications from them, but thus far, it appears that pregnant women who became ill with COVID in their 3rd trimester (and their babies) have had similar outcomes as lower risk groups. Studies have shown that for SARS susceptibility, estrogen (of which pregnant women have more during a single pregnancy than during the total of their life while not pregnant) was a protective factor (it reduced viral cell replication). I'm wondering if that's in part what's going on with COVID, since there is a disparity between male and female mortality and the evidence does not at this point show pregnant women to be high-risk.

(2) My prenatal appointments have been a mix of in-office and over the phone. They're managing it well. The waiting room at my OB is just pregnant patients. Not the same as staying home, but not at all like the ER waiting room (though there might be more exposure if your doc is a GP).

(3) I'm not so sure maternal mortality will increase. COVID is definitely changing maternal care (especially in terms of resource use and infection precautions), but at this point it is unlikely that women will lack the most vital services they need during and after delivery. I would think the related economic crisis would have a greater effect on maternal mortality, since the US's high rate is largely due to issues connected to poverty and lack of access (including untreated chronic conditions).
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: scottnews on March 31, 2020, 03:47:46 PM

I really feel like they should start naming and shaming those who break their quarantine.  If anything it might help act as a deterrent to others thinking of doing the same.

in addition to face tattoos, maybe they get the Honorable Mention category
https://darwinawards.com/slush/submit_story.html
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ketchup on March 31, 2020, 04:37:34 PM
Yeah, not sure about a baby boom in the midst of a pandemic.  For one thing, it's not good to run a fever while pregnant, so given the choice, a lot of people might avoid conceiving at this time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/the-world-could-be-running-out-of-condoms-because-of-pandemic
Getting that vasectomy two and a half years ago at 26 remains some of my best-spent dollars.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: matchewed on March 31, 2020, 04:45:26 PM
I don't see people social-distancing in my neighborhood, despite the soft lock-down. Delivery drivers are more abundant around here than ever, so people aren't cooking from home either. People are itching to return to their normal lives.

The virus has simply hastened the end of a lot of service jobs that were doomed anyway.

A fundamental question will be your medical privacy vs. the public right to know. At what point does your health history and your current condition become part of the surveillance state, the transit process.

I really feel like they should start naming and shaming those who break their quarantine.  If anything it might help act as a deterrent to others thinking of doing the same.

Two words for you:


Face Tattoos


/snip


Figure that would solve the problem right quickly.
(https://odditymall.com/includes/content/upload/no-ragrets-temporary-tattoo-2663.jpg)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: BurtMacklin on March 31, 2020, 04:47:40 PM
I admit this one is wishful thinking:
Research on coronavirus results in a cure for the common cold, leading to the elimination of those viruses and the bankruptcy of cold medication companies.

I'd love to see that happening - my wife is a teacher in primary school, and brings home every cold anyone in her class has (except somehow without actually contracting it herself), so I spend October to April with a sniffle.

Yes, us teachers get sick a lot in the early years of teaching. Now we rarely get sick even though we basically work in a germ factory.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FlytilFIRE on March 31, 2020, 05:34:25 PM
I agree with Nath that the economy is going to be the elephant in the room. When I had my Management class in collage, over 40 years ago, we learned that little permanent change occurs without a Significant Emotional Event. If one were to lose a loved one to Covid-19, that could bee a SEE. But more likely, the economic hardship encountered by many, in conjunction with the virus, will make a much larger impression on many.

The results will vary, as they always do. Some will learn, and be better prepared in future. Others will simply say, "See, YOLO, so I'd better party hearty!"

The current state of the US led me to pull the plug and retire. Not particularly early, but three years before I was planning to go. No regrets yet, but I'm still (relatively!) young. I haven't reached out to people to tell them I've retired, because many of my friends are struggling. But I also don't lie if people ask if I'm going to work.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on March 31, 2020, 06:46:39 PM
I really don't mean to be provocative, but depending on how the US responds to the next phases of the pandemic, I wonder how that will impact the gun rights movement in America. Over here, we are in country-wide lockdown enforced (in different ways in different areas) by the police. New crimes have been created, such as "coronavirus coughing" (deliberately coughing at people and claiming you have coronavirus). I know other countries are tracking mobile data to track transmission.

This seems to me like a classic case of the kind of tyrannical government gun supporters want the right to fight against. Will the lack of such controls be painted as a win by gun supporters? Or, if they come in, will the gun supporters take to the streets to fight it? If not, will their tyrannical government argument no longer hold as much weight?

I think most gun owners appreciate the constitutionality of  a  States' or political subdivisions'  exercise of their  police power in times of extraordinary exigency.

These informed gun owners  will recognize the legitimacy of  atypical exercises of governmental power due to this pandemic. They will  observe  recommendations to shelter in place,   accept orders to quarantine themselves, and obey temporary, local ordinances.

Of course there will be some who shout "tyranny" who do so because they are ignorant of the contingencies that actually constitute "tyrannical government" as described by Judge Kozinski in Silveira.




Silveira v. Lockyer (2003)


The Second Amendment is a doomsday provision, one designed for those exceptionally rare circumstances where all other rights have failed — where the government refuses to stand for reelection and silences those who protest; where courts have lost the courage to oppose, or can find no one to enforce their decrees. However improbable these contingencies may seem today, facing them unprepared is a mistake a free people get to make only once. Judge Kozinski (Dissent)
 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Linea_Norway on April 01, 2020, 12:53:36 AM
I think that companies are working harder than normal on automization. Our Norwegian office that pays out unemployement money now has an awful lot to do and said they were automating what they could.
But I can also imagine that factories that are missing employees that are at home are now thinking about automating.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Travis on April 01, 2020, 04:59:19 AM
I think that companies are working harder than normal on automization. Our Norwegian office that pays out unemployement money now has an awful lot to do and said they were automating what they could.
But I can also imagine that factories that are missing employees that are at home are now thinking about automating.

This is the ugly side of increased teleworking and benching "non essential" personnel. How many of them will continue to have jobs when the dust settles? If I'm a corporate HR manager or bean counter I'd be looking at whether these people kept home were ever really necessary for the business to operate.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: MayDay on April 01, 2020, 05:14:31 AM
Yeah, not sure about a baby boom in the midst of a pandemic.  For one thing, it's not good to run a fever while pregnant, so given the choice, a lot of people might avoid conceiving at this time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/the-world-could-be-running-out-of-condoms-because-of-pandemic

Well, that's not good!

Thinking more about this, pregnant women also need to worry about the medical system being overwhelmed.  It would be a very scary time to be having a baby.

I have heard that infertility treatments are getting cancelled, so in nine months there will definitely be fewer babies born through IVF, etc.

I have a friend due in about 3 weeks.  She seems to be taking it all fairly in stride, but I'd be terrified.  Even just having to go to the hospital (and have a tiny, vulnerable baby spend any time there) would be scary.  It seems hospitals are limiting it to one person in the delivery room as kind of an attempt at social distancing, which sucks for those who hoped to use a doula.

I have a few friends that are home birth or birth center (out of hospital) midwives, and they are absolutely swamped. I think it is a combo of not wanting to be in a germy hospital and not being allowed support persons during labor.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 01, 2020, 08:18:33 AM
I think open floor plan houses are going to be a lot less popular.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on April 01, 2020, 08:50:13 AM
I think open floor plan houses are going to be a lot less popular.

Meh.  If any person in your house has coronavirus, every person in your house does.  Don't think the floor plan is going to have any bearing on that.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: dandarc on April 01, 2020, 08:52:16 AM
I think open floor plan houses are going to be a lot less popular.

Meh.  If any person in your house has coronavirus, every person in your house does.  Don't think the floor plan is going to have any bearing on that.
Nothing to do with the virus itself . . .
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on April 01, 2020, 08:59:16 AM
I think open floor plan houses are going to be a lot less popular.

Meh.  If any person in your house has coronavirus, every person in your house does.  Don't think the floor plan is going to have any bearing on that.
Nothing to do with the virus itself . . .


Oh.  You mean noise/other people?  I like that our main floor is open concept with everyone home.  Our son has literally been running around in circles in the afternoon.  At least the openness gives him the space to do that while the wife and I work in the rooms upstairs.  :P
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: bilmar on April 01, 2020, 09:35:51 AM
I wonder if we will soon have a new 'class' of people.
Those who have recovered from the virus  and have documentation from an antibody test to prove it.

Such 'immunity' makes these people  very useful to any situation where transmission is a concern so giving blood, volunteering is all laudable and much needed but I can also see a darker side where they become 'better' employees, lower insurance risks etc. 
What if in 9 months,  jobs are offered to immune only?
Or only those with an  immunity cert are allowed to fly, visit the mall etc?

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on April 01, 2020, 09:52:43 AM
No commercial air travel should be allowed moving forward.

I mean, if we're serious about wanting to prevent future pandemics.  That's how these things spread.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Fru-Gal on April 01, 2020, 10:50:41 AM
Quote
No commercial air travel should be allowed moving forward.

I mean, if we're serious about wanting to prevent future pandemics.  That's how these things spread.

One thing I've been thinking about is tourism, which I thought was already peaking. How do we create the experience of tourism but have it be local? Part of the problem is that cheap air travel distorts the natural sense of distance. When you're on your feet, a bike, a train, a boat, a paddle board, etc, you are at ground level and forced to contemplate distance.

Ideas:

Endurance or long-term events, such through-hiking, point-to-point hiking (like to designated cabins), orienteering, scavenger hunts, geocaching, bike tours, walking tours.

Water activities, skilled sports like dance, yoga, karate...

Food tours but local?

Language immersion camps the way some colleges do?

Home exchange or college experiences for adults?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: okits on April 01, 2020, 11:16:01 AM
I think that companies are working harder than normal on automization. Our Norwegian office that pays out unemployement money now has an awful lot to do and said they were automating what they could.
But I can also imagine that factories that are missing employees that are at home are now thinking about automating.

This is the ugly side of increased teleworking and benching "non essential" personnel. How many of them will continue to have jobs when the dust settles? If I'm a corporate HR manager or bean counter I'd be looking at whether these people kept home were ever really necessary for the business to operate.

Part of me hopes that this experience will teach some people (ideally decision makers or influential figures) the importance of contingency plans and spare capacity.  Our local hospitals were already regularly operating beyond capacity before this pandemic.  That's not good.  (On a personal level, hopefully in the future more people will save up emergency funds.  I know, I'm saying "hope" a lot!  But maybe some of it will happen.)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIRE Artist on April 01, 2020, 11:17:49 AM
I think there will be a new industry in the US (US = any country without universal health care) for people to own their own ventilators, it will start with the 1%ers (who probably already own them likely) and will eventually migrate down to the upper middle classes. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIRE Artist on April 01, 2020, 11:21:59 AM
On a more realistic not, i think there will be some kind of EI equivalent program brought in for self employed folks in Canada.  The amount the government is shelling out to keep those people afloat to the same level as those who have been paying into EI all along is quite shocking and I think lessons will need to be learned from that.  As I understand it, those folks are expected to pay into CPP, paying both the employee and employer portion, I don't understand why they have been exempt from EI. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 01, 2020, 11:32:38 AM
On a more realistic not, i think there will be some kind of EI equivalent program brought in for self employed folks in Canada.  The amount the government is shelling out to keep those people afloat to the same level as those who have been paying into EI all along is quite shocking and I think lessons will need to be learned from that.  As I understand it, those folks are expected to pay into CPP, paying both the employee and employer portion, I don't understand why they have been exempt from EI.

There are EI special benefits available for the self employed, but for most people they're a terrible program.

This was already a significant issue being looked at very closely by the government, but I agree that this event will definitely accelerate action on developing full EI for self employed people that actually works.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LWYRUP on April 01, 2020, 11:35:32 AM
I admit this one is wishful thinking:
Research on coronavirus results in a cure for the common cold, leading to the elimination of those viruses and the bankruptcy of cold medication companies.

I'd love to see that happening - my wife is a teacher in primary school, and brings home every cold anyone in her class has (except somehow without actually contracting it herself), so I spend October to April with a sniffle.

Yes, us teachers get sick a lot in the early years of teaching. Now we rarely get sick even though we basically work in a germ factory.

Sorry, this "novel coronavirus" is very distinct from the viruses that cause minor colds.  I wouldn't hold your breath.

Also, for most people fighting minor colds is good for the immune system.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on April 01, 2020, 11:41:20 AM
I think there will be a new industry in the US (US = any country without universal health care) for people to own their own ventilators, it will start with the 1%ers (who probably already own them likely) and will eventually migrate down to the upper middle classes.

I'm looking forward to seeing a late night huckster selling a home-intubation kit to go with those private ventilators. For just 3 easy payments of $29.99, it could be yours!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: jinga nation on April 01, 2020, 11:56:00 AM
I admit this one is wishful thinking:
Research on coronavirus results in a cure for the common cold, leading to the elimination of those viruses and the bankruptcy of cold medication companies.

I'd love to see that happening - my wife is a teacher in primary school, and brings home every cold anyone in her class has (except somehow without actually contracting it herself), so I spend October to April with a sniffle.

Yes, us teachers get sick a lot in the early years of teaching. Now we rarely get sick even though we basically work in a germ factory.

Sorry, this "novel coronavirus" is very distinct from the viruses that cause minor colds.  I wouldn't hold your breath.

Also, for most people fighting minor colds is good for the immune system.
I think what @Zette is referring to is research that reveals how viruses mutate into various strains. Being able to simulate and predict would lead to faster vaccine development and follow-on effects.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Anon in Alaska on April 01, 2020, 12:59:00 PM
Somewhat more people, but not most people, will remember being short on money when they were out of a job and will start spending less.

This will be good for them, but not good for the economy as a whole as it will make it harder for businesses who (barely) got through the upcoming bad times to ever recover.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: caracarn on April 01, 2020, 01:29:23 PM
I think home grocery delivery is going to continue to be popular post-plague. I think that so many people in North America have basically been unaware of its existence until very recently. Certainly when I used it several years ago, the most common response was "What the hell, you can actually do that?"
Having joined the essential worked of Instacart in the last week to help in our community, I agree.  The number of first time orders is about 80% of what I see and I am doing this only as a side hustle along with food delivery.  Unlike food delivery, grocery shopping is a chore people must do and can outsource and pay a hefty sum (tips) to do because they understand how much they hate it.  Knowing they can avoid the lines and the hassle of shopping will stick with people for a long time after and I will keep adding to my stash because of it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: caracarn on April 01, 2020, 01:40:05 PM
  • Wearing face masks in public will become more socially accepted in Western countries
  • Restaurants will reorganize the physical layout of their dining areas to include greater distance between tables
Face masks - I hope not as I hope the research explaining what they are actually for will prevail and people will realize that wearing a mask does not lower your chance of infection, it lowers your chance of infecting others, and therefore people will assume you are sick and ask why you are outside.
Restaurants - I think this is very unlikely.  The cost structure of a restaurant does not change and having less people in your establishment means you need to charge more which lowers your overall demand as this is not an inelastic demand curve for dining out.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on April 01, 2020, 02:40:34 PM
Face masks - I hope not as I hope the research explaining what they are actually for will prevail and people will realize that wearing a mask does not lower your chance of infection, it lowers your chance of infecting others, and therefore people will assume you are sick and ask why you are outside.

Given that people infected with coronavirus shed virus before they show symptoms, anyone who is "healthy" could be spreading it.  Plus anything else that is spreading before symptoms start; a person with the common flu is thought to be contagious the day before symptoms start.  That person has no idea they have the flu, but they are shedding flu virus.  We bundle up in cold weather, why not mask up when we are in a crowd?  We would all know we were protecting each other, just in case. 

Seriously, this is not something I am used to, but seeing so many Asians in Australian and New Zealand airports before this even started made me realise that our view of what is socially acceptable is not universal, and that other views might have merit.  Masks during flu season are starting to seem like a good idea, even when the pandemic is over.

People here are talking about what virus factories little kids are, but I caught so many colds from my College students.  We are all potential vectors.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on April 01, 2020, 02:46:48 PM
Face masks - I hope not as I hope the research explaining what they are actually for will prevail and people will realize that wearing a mask does not lower your chance of infection, it lowers your chance of infecting others

In the translated words of the Czech song on this topic (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czb4c-diQpE&feature=emb_logo):

"Put on a face mask,
Think about others not just yourself,
Don't be shy, you protect me and I'll protect you."


It's a lot catchier in Czech.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: caracarn on April 01, 2020, 02:51:02 PM
Face masks - I hope not as I hope the research explaining what they are actually for will prevail and people will realize that wearing a mask does not lower your chance of infection, it lowers your chance of infecting others, and therefore people will assume you are sick and ask why you are outside.

Given that people infected with coronavirus shed virus before they show symptoms, anyone who is "healthy" could be spreading it.  Plus anything else that is spreading before symptoms start; a person with the common flu is thought to be contagious the day before symptoms start.  That person has no idea they have the flu, but they are shedding flu virus.  We bundle up in cold weather, why not mask up when we are in a crowd?  We would all know we were protecting each other, just in case. 

Seriously, this is not something I am used to, but seeing so many Asians in Australian and New Zealand airports before this even started made me realise that our view of what is socially acceptable is not universal, and that other views might have merit.  Masks during flu season are starting to seem like a good idea, even when the pandemic is over.

People here are talking about what virus factories little kids are, but I caught so many colds from my College students.  We are all potential vectors.
Having spent a good time working in Asia most of the masking there was done for air pollution not for viruses.  So people were used to wearing them for that and honestly have no idea if any increase happened with the virus or just the people already wearing them for air pollution.

And in the situation we have now, we have a vast shortage of masks, so right now it is the WRONG thing to do.  The healthcare community needs them to be available, and ordinary citizens need to stand down.  Next fall?  Sure, then we can start your method.

ETA:  And no sooner do I say this and this appears:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/coronavirus-mask-messaging-intl-hnk/index.html
So looks like things may be changing but the shortage still needs to be thought about.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Aegishjalmur on April 01, 2020, 03:08:45 PM
I am hoping that in the US it will lead to allowing nationwide mail in ballots for all elections.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on April 01, 2020, 04:00:06 PM
Face masks - I hope not as I hope the research explaining what they are actually for will prevail and people will realize that wearing a mask does not lower your chance of infection, it lowers your chance of infecting others, and therefore people will assume you are sick and ask why you are outside.

Given that people infected with coronavirus shed virus before they show symptoms, anyone who is "healthy" could be spreading it.  Plus anything else that is spreading before symptoms start; a person with the common flu is thought to be contagious the day before symptoms start.  That person has no idea they have the flu, but they are shedding flu virus.  We bundle up in cold weather, why not mask up when we are in a crowd?  We would all know we were protecting each other, just in case. 

Seriously, this is not something I am used to, but seeing so many Asians in Australian and New Zealand airports before this even started made me realise that our view of what is socially acceptable is not universal, and that other views might have merit.  Masks during flu season are starting to seem like a good idea, even when the pandemic is over.

People here are talking about what virus factories little kids are, but I caught so many colds from my College students.  We are all potential vectors.
Having spent a good time working in Asia most of the masking there was done for air pollution not for viruses.  So people were used to wearing them for that and honestly have no idea if any increase happened with the virus or just the people already wearing them for air pollution.

And in the situation we have now, we have a vast shortage of masks, so right now it is the WRONG thing to do.  The healthcare community needs them to be available, and ordinary citizens need to stand down.  Next fall?  Sure, then we can start your method.

ETA:  And no sooner do I say this and this appears:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/coronavirus-mask-messaging-intl-hnk/index.html
So looks like things may be changing but the shortage still needs to be thought about.

Not the case in Japan. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 01, 2020, 05:14:58 PM
I think open floor plan houses are going to be a lot less popular.

Meh.  If any person in your house has coronavirus, every person in your house does.  Don't think the floor plan is going to have any bearing on that.

LOL - no, I think people are going to have had more than enough of everyone trying to actually get stuff done in one giant room, and develop a whole new appreciation of walls and doors.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 01, 2020, 05:18:34 PM
And I think that food delivery has been an absolute flop, at least in my area.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on April 01, 2020, 06:45:02 PM
And I think that food delivery has been an absolute flop, at least in my area.

I've tried four types of grocery delivery (Costco, Amazon, and two grocery stores) they all suck.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on April 01, 2020, 06:46:25 PM
Face masks - I hope not as I hope the research explaining what they are actually for will prevail and people will realize that wearing a mask does not lower your chance of infection, it lowers your chance of infecting others, and therefore people will assume you are sick and ask why you are outside.

Given that people infected with coronavirus shed virus before they show symptoms, anyone who is "healthy" could be spreading it.  Plus anything else that is spreading before symptoms start; a person with the common flu is thought to be contagious the day before symptoms start.  That person has no idea they have the flu, but they are shedding flu virus.  We bundle up in cold weather, why not mask up when we are in a crowd?  We would all know we were protecting each other, just in case. 

Seriously, this is not something I am used to, but seeing so many Asians in Australian and New Zealand airports before this even started made me realise that our view of what is socially acceptable is not universal, and that other views might have merit.  Masks during flu season are starting to seem like a good idea, even when the pandemic is over.

People here are talking about what virus factories little kids are, but I caught so many colds from my College students.  We are all potential vectors.
Having spent a good time working in Asia most of the masking there was done for air pollution not for viruses.  So people were used to wearing them for that and honestly have no idea if any increase happened with the virus or just the people already wearing them for air pollution.

And in the situation we have now, we have a vast shortage of masks, so right now it is the WRONG thing to do.  The healthcare community needs them to be available, and ordinary citizens need to stand down.  Next fall?  Sure, then we can start your method.

ETA:  And no sooner do I say this and this appears:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/coronavirus-mask-messaging-intl-hnk/index.html
So looks like things may be changing but the shortage still needs to be thought about.

There are masses of YouTube sources on how to make a reasonably effective face mask that is not medical grade, but about 50% the effectiveness of medical grade.  Anyone can make one.  You don't even need sewing skills or equipment.  Got an old t shirt and a pair of scissors?  You can make a face mask.  May not be super pretty, but it will keep some of your droplets from getting into general circulation.  Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on April 01, 2020, 07:16:40 PM
And I think that food delivery has been an absolute flop, at least in my area.

I've tried four types of grocery delivery (Costco, Amazon, and two grocery stores) they all suck.

What sucks?  I haven't been to a grocery store in more than a month (Amazon Fresh) and it's been great.  I am going to have a hard time giving it up.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on April 01, 2020, 08:45:51 PM
And I think that food delivery has been an absolute flop, at least in my area.

I've tried four types of grocery delivery (Costco, Amazon, and two grocery stores) they all suck.

What sucks?  I haven't been to a grocery store in more than a month (Amazon Fresh) and it's been great.  I am going to have a hard time giving it up.

Earliest delivery was 2+ weeks for any service.  Costco is out of supplies of pretty much any staple (you can get caviar and elk meat delivered though).  Amazon is sold out of most staples, or is charging crazy prices.  The local grocery stores don't have functional websites.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on April 01, 2020, 09:45:39 PM
And I think that food delivery has been an absolute flop, at least in my area.

I've tried four types of grocery delivery (Costco, Amazon, and two grocery stores) they all suck.

What sucks?  I haven't been to a grocery store in more than a month (Amazon Fresh) and it's been great.  I am going to have a hard time giving it up.

Earliest delivery was 2+ weeks for any service.  Costco is out of supplies of pretty much any staple (you can get caviar and elk meat delivered though).  Amazon is sold out of most staples, or is charging crazy prices.  The local grocery stores don't have functional websites.

Interesting.  Locally, Amazon Fresh only schedules 2 days out.  They release new times randomly throughout the day, so I have had to check back periodically, but I've always been able to get a schedule within a few days (for one or two days out).  They are out of some things, but seem to restock often and have enough things available that it hasn't been a problem.  They exception has been white flour. (I haven't looked for TP or disinfecting cleaning products.)  I do live in a place where groceries seem to be very expensive, but I find the Amazon prices to be about the same, some more, some less.  (I do tip, and very well recently.)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 02, 2020, 04:47:44 AM
It clearly depends on where you are. The big grocery store chain has given up delivery altogether. I got a pickup slot last week, but that seems to have collapsed, too. Instacart seems very spotty - some people are able to get an order through but a lot o people can’t.

And I had used the delivery occasionally *before* all this!

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 02, 2020, 07:31:11 AM
I'm curious to see if any new overarching health regulatory structures come about, especially for self regulated fields like chiro and dentistry.

It's been a bit of a cluster fuck, and lawyers have had to be brought in to determine exactly who has authority of what when it comes to telling licensed health professionals what they can and cannot do, and what kind of action can be taken in the event of non compliance.

I suspect there will be far clearer guidelines in the future to avoid the kind of communication delays and contradictions we had this time around.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: sherr on April 02, 2020, 09:53:54 AM
I am hoping that in the US it will lead to allowing nationwide mail in ballots for all elections.

Not trying to get political, but this will definitely not happen nationwide. On the topic of Democratic proposals to increase voter protection:
Quote
The things they had in there were crazy. They had levels of voting, that if you ever agreed to it you'd never have a Republican elected in this country again. -President Trump

Elections are almost exclusively run by the states though, so if more individual states want to switch to universal mail-in ballots there's nothing the feds can do to stop them.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on April 02, 2020, 10:18:45 AM
And I think that food delivery has been an absolute flop, at least in my area.

I've tried four types of grocery delivery (Costco, Amazon, and two grocery stores) they all suck.
I love my produce delivery (I have two), but they are SLAMMED.  Because of course they are.  Both of them hit their max capacity this week.

I had no less than 3 people ask me who I  used in a 2 hour period. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Master of None on April 02, 2020, 10:42:33 AM
I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 02, 2020, 11:17:49 AM
It would be nice if the US adopted a universal healthcare OR detached healthcare insurance from employment. That just makes people vulnerable.

This is obviously a stupid question, because if it were that easy people in the USA would do it..... but why don't people buy their own health insurance?
In NZ we have universal healthcare, as well as a no fault insurance scheme for accidents that everyone is automatically eligible for - it's not linked to employment or citizenship or anything. If you step off a plane on a tourist visa and twist your ankle, you're covered. It's funded by levies on petrol, cigarettes, employment based levies that come out of your taxes etc. BUT, we can also buy health insurance which basically means you can possibly avoid any public waiting lists, publicly funded treatment criteria (some things are only funded if you meet age or symptom criteria), as well as bet with your insurance company whether you will break your glasses etc. Why do americans not buy their own?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Optimiser on April 02, 2020, 11:26:08 AM
It would be nice if the US adopted a universal healthcare OR detached healthcare insurance from employment. That just makes people vulnerable.

This is obviously a stupid question, because if it were that easy people in the USA would do it..... but why don't people buy their own health insurance?
In NZ we have universal healthcare, as well as a no fault insurance scheme for accidents that everyone is automatically eligible for - it's not linked to employment or citizenship or anything. If you step off a plane on a tourist visa and twist your ankle, you're covered. It's funded by levies on petrol, cigarettes, employment based levies that come out of your taxes etc. BUT, we can also buy health insurance which basically means you can possibly avoid any public waiting lists, publicly funded treatment criteria (some things are only funded if you meet age or symptom criteria), as well as bet with your insurance company whether you will break your glasses etc. Why do americans not buy their own?

Many people do, but it's pretty expensive. For example the cheapest plan we could find for my wife is about $335/month. At that price you still have co-pays every time you get anything done and a $7,900 deductible.

"Cheap" insurance like this still requires paying out of pocket quite a bit too. For example, last year she had a couple of ear infections that required going to urgent care. The bill for those visits, after insurance paid their part, was $700.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 02, 2020, 11:33:56 AM
It would be nice if the US adopted a universal healthcare OR detached healthcare insurance from employment. That just makes people vulnerable.

This is obviously a stupid question, because if it were that easy people in the USA would do it..... but why don't people buy their own health insurance?
In NZ we have universal healthcare, as well as a no fault insurance scheme for accidents that everyone is automatically eligible for - it's not linked to employment or citizenship or anything. If you step off a plane on a tourist visa and twist your ankle, you're covered. It's funded by levies on petrol, cigarettes, employment based levies that come out of your taxes etc. BUT, we can also buy health insurance which basically means you can possibly avoid any public waiting lists, publicly funded treatment criteria (some things are only funded if you meet age or symptom criteria), as well as bet with your insurance company whether you will break your glasses etc. Why do americans not buy their own?

Many people do, but it's pretty expensive. For example the cheapest plan we could find for my wife is about $335/month. At that price you still have co-pays every time you get anything done and a $7,900 deductible.

"Cheap" insurance like this still requires paying out of pocket quite a bit too. For example, last year she had a couple of ear infections that required going to urgent care. The bill for those visits, after insurance paid their part, was $700.

Interesting. My private insurance (surgical/specialist and diagnostic) is $150 a month (48 year old female). It has a $100 deductible, except on diagnostics which are fully covered. There's no co-pay. There is a limit on how much you can claim in a year. I think it's $600,000 or so which is a VAST amount in NZ healthcare.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: wenchsenior on April 02, 2020, 11:38:01 AM
It would be nice if the US adopted a universal healthcare OR detached healthcare insurance from employment. That just makes people vulnerable.

This is obviously a stupid question, because if it were that easy people in the USA would do it..... but why don't people buy their own health insurance?
In NZ we have universal healthcare, as well as a no fault insurance scheme for accidents that everyone is automatically eligible for - it's not linked to employment or citizenship or anything. If you step off a plane on a tourist visa and twist your ankle, you're covered. It's funded by levies on petrol, cigarettes, employment based levies that come out of your taxes etc. BUT, we can also buy health insurance which basically means you can possibly avoid any public waiting lists, publicly funded treatment criteria (some things are only funded if you meet age or symptom criteria), as well as bet with your insurance company whether you will break your glasses etc. Why do americans not buy their own?

Before the Affordable Care Act (for many decades) it was usually b/c it was either catastrophic care only, or it was prohibitively expensive and/or it didn't cover pre-existing conditions.

Since the ACA, it's mostly b/c it is still prohibitively expensive for some people. ACA capped costs for plans with certain pre-established types of coverage, but the old cheaper catastrophic-coverage only plans are no longer offered. But even with capped costs and subsidies, the costs are still too much for many.

Essentially, the cost is just insane here.  DH and I are covered under his federal employee insurance.  This is IMO very good insurance, which is apparently (I cannot verify) envied by many citizens.  Premiums for 2 of us (not a 'family plan') cost ~7,000$/yr, with DH's employer (the gov't) picking up the rest of the cost ($>13,000 MORE/year).  ETA: There are copays for most visits as well, plus a portion of most tests, Rx, surgeries, etc.

So for comparison, our total mortgage/house insurance/property taxes amount to about 13,000$/year, but if we had to buy that health plan ourselves, it would be ~20K/year just for premiums.

That is simply not do-able for most Americans.

ETA: Since the ACA, we would of course NOT buy that plan ourselves if we were looking for non-employer insurance, but as several people have noted, plans offered through the ACA aren't that cheap either.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: okits on April 02, 2020, 11:39:26 AM
I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.

It's to your frugal credit (or low-information diet) that you're just thinking about this now.  :)

Ghost kitchen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_kitchen)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 02, 2020, 11:45:45 AM
- I would guess that work from home gets more common as people has gotten more used to it and appreciate the benefits of not commuting. The employers also see the benefits: they get the work done with less office costs.
- There will be less business travel. I have heard so many people express how good the video meetings work. Even people that normally wants to meet in person. Companies will also see that a lot of the travel really was not necessary.
- Videoconferencing will be a lot more popular.
- Grocerydeliveries have increased a lot. Unfortunately for us that do it regularly normally it has become more difficult to find delivery slots. Homedelivery of other things have also become extremely popular.
- You see a lot of people out walking. People are more outdoors which has actually made the hiking and walking trails very popular. Actually so popular that I have started avoiding them during weekends.
- I also think that tourism within the country will be more popular and if you look at this summer I would guess that if you want to go on a vacation it will be in Sweden if even that. I think it will take time for international tourism to grow. Who wants to risk getting stuck in some country with a virus spread. I also think that tourism to US will be really limited from a risk point. I had hoped to make a longer trip in December this year but that will not happen.
- You would also hope that businesses would build up some reserves. It is interesting to see so called successful businesses to be in crisis mode after two weeks.
- Here we have a lot of talk about taking manufacturing back to Europe due to logistics risks. Factories had to shut down because the global distributions chains have not worked.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cassie on April 02, 2020, 11:56:30 AM
Most food doesn’t travel well and isn’t hot by the time you get it home. I doubt carry out will replace dining in a restaurant.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 02, 2020, 12:27:16 PM
It would be nice if the US adopted a universal healthcare OR detached healthcare insurance from employment. That just makes people vulnerable.

This is obviously a stupid question, because if it were that easy people in the USA would do it..... but why don't people buy their own health insurance?
In NZ we have universal healthcare, as well as a no fault insurance scheme for accidents that everyone is automatically eligible for - it's not linked to employment or citizenship or anything. If you step off a plane on a tourist visa and twist your ankle, you're covered. It's funded by levies on petrol, cigarettes, employment based levies that come out of your taxes etc. BUT, we can also buy health insurance which basically means you can possibly avoid any public waiting lists, publicly funded treatment criteria (some things are only funded if you meet age or symptom criteria), as well as bet with your insurance company whether you will break your glasses etc. Why do americans not buy their own?

Many people do, but it's pretty expensive. For example the cheapest plan we could find for my wife is about $335/month. At that price you still have co-pays every time you get anything done and a $7,900 deductible.

"Cheap" insurance like this still requires paying out of pocket quite a bit too. For example, last year she had a couple of ear infections that required going to urgent care. The bill for those visits, after insurance paid their part, was $700.

Yeah, we're looking into this now because husband will very likely lose both his job and our health insurance within the next month. We're looking at probably $600/month for a basic plan with a high deductible and high out-of-pocket costs. Hopefully his unemployment will cover whatever we need to pay in premiums.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 02, 2020, 01:01:49 PM
Most food doesn’t travel well and isn’t hot by the time you get it home. I doubt carry out will replace dining in a restaurant.

I concur. If I'm going to splurge on eating out, I want to experience of having it prepared well and eating it when it's at its peak. I couldn't imagine paying to eat out at anything like a "sit down" restaurant but doing it take out. I don't even see many people doing it now when there's no option to eat in the restaurant.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Master of None on April 02, 2020, 01:11:15 PM
I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.

It's to your frugal credit (or low-information diet) that you're just thinking about this now.  :)


Ghost kitchen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_kitchen)

Thanks for the info. I'd like to think its due to my frugality, but most likely I'm just out of the loop. Cool concept.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Khaetra on April 02, 2020, 01:53:17 PM
Most food doesn’t travel well and isn’t hot by the time you get it home. I doubt carry out will replace dining in a restaurant.

I concur. If I'm going to splurge on eating out, I want to experience of having it prepared well and eating it when it's at its peak. I couldn't imagine paying to eat out at anything like a "sit down" restaurant but doing it take out. I don't even see many people doing it now when there's no option to eat in the restaurant.

I see Outback advertising take-out.  The closest one to me is 20 minutes away (on a good day traffic-wise) and eating a steak that's been sitting out that long does not sound appealing.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 02, 2020, 02:07:00 PM
Most food doesn’t travel well and isn’t hot by the time you get it home. I doubt carry out will replace dining in a restaurant.

I concur. If I'm going to splurge on eating out, I want to experience of having it prepared well and eating it when it's at its peak. I couldn't imagine paying to eat out at anything like a "sit down" restaurant but doing it take out. I don't even see many people doing it now when there's no option to eat in the restaurant.

I see Outback advertising take-out.  The closest one to me is 20 minutes away (on a good day traffic-wise) and eating a steak that's been sitting out that long does not sound appealing.

I did some take out with delivery when I was in Thailand because the price was doable. Here I have looked into ordering takeout but it is never worth it money wise if you are not several people due to delivery fees. I figured that it was pretty much not worth it to pay 30 USD per meal from a decent restaurant to get it delivered home.

Someone mentioned that the use of makeup in a middle eastern fashion would grow. I have actually found that people really relax their outfits when they work from home. Sometimes to much actually. I would say that most of the people don't use makeup at all, when they work from home. I sit through most of the meetings in yoga pants (nobody sees them) and a decent top with a fleece jacket. That seems to be the work from home outfit for most of the people. I have dressed up a little for couple occasions like board meetings but basically most of the people don't bother doing that.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Northern gal on April 02, 2020, 02:51:56 PM
* places that isolated themselves early, like Ireland and Western Australia, will remain isolated for quite a while. In Australia, we are undergoing a huge shake up of the federation.

* unfortunately, I predict a rise in nationalism. Governments will push the reestablishment of national, protected industries. people will holiday in their country / state.

* unfortunately, I predict women's careers will suffer. There may be a perception that, when push comes to  shove and childcare is out of the picture, they are the less reliable workers. I also think there will be a renewed push for women to stay home and remain "clean and pure" even if only from a germ point of view. Essentially what Saudis call "compound living" will become the new norm. Meanwhile, many traditionally female jobs have become "frontline" jobs (cashiers, nurses, janitors), making them ever less attractive.

* many more people will aspire to a lifestyle of owning property with a yard and ideally land but much fewer will be able to afford it.

* we see panic buying of seeds and things like backyard chooks but people are really clueless. I predict a lot of them will get really disheartened. The gap between "the food people aspire to eat" and what they can actually afford to eat, will widen. Meanwhile, the rich will hire their own gardeners to grow their own.

* unemployment and crime will rise across the board. this will be used as an excuse to keep chipping away at civil liberties. It may  also make it more common for people to have  nannies, cooks, gardeners, drivers.

* interest in frontline medical jobs will fall

* there will be a lot of dying in the developing world (20%?) most people will just tune out and shrug it off. The value of human life will very much depend on your passport (as it already does).
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Northern gal on April 02, 2020, 02:55:41 PM
I think there will be a new industry in the US (US = any country without universal health care) for people to own their own ventilators, it will start with the 1%ers (who probably already own them likely) and will eventually migrate down to the upper middle classes.

It involves being flipped over twice a day, with lots of cables in place. while you are on drugs which paralyse all your muscles to keep your body from fighting the ventilator. You'd have to have at least 7 permanent staff. then a dialysis team and an ECMO

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn3nV4viapg
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GreenSheep on April 02, 2020, 02:58:10 PM
I also think that tourism to US will be really limited from a risk point.

Just curious, what risk are you referring to? As one who lives here, maybe it's equivalent to that saying about how fish don't notice the water because they live in it? The only thing I can think of is that I've heard some people outside the US mention that they're concerned about the cost of healthcare here, but wouldn't travel health insurance cover that?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: scottish on April 02, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Distributing global industry more evenly would actually make the world economy more robust, would it not?       For example, most technology manufacturing is done in Taiwan and China.    Most of the wealthier countries no longer have the ability to manufacture state of the art integrated circuits.  This would lead to more trade barriers and increased nationalism.    Economists will tell us that it's more efficient to do the manufacturing where it's cheapest, but I think it would also be much more robust if we could do everything in North America and Europe as well as Asia.

Another topic, the reduction in air travel has got to help the climate change situation.    I've never liked air travel much and the 30 year trend of packing passengers in tighter and tighter makes me actively avoid air travel if at all possible.    Aside from consolidation and bankruptcies, I wonder how this will affect the airline industry in the long term.    I would think people will consider paying more for more personal space next year.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Northern gal on April 02, 2020, 04:01:15 PM
   Economists will tell us that it's more efficient to do the manufacturing where it's cheapest, but I think it would also be much more robust if we could do everything in North America and Europe as well as Asia.

the true price of manufacturing would include the cost of supply being unavailable during black swan events, the cost of pollution, the cost of loss of life where factories don't  meet safety standards etc

A lot of goods only appear cheaper because the financial models are overly simplistic and focused on the short term.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: The Fake Cheap on April 02, 2020, 04:16:31 PM
Distributing global industry more evenly would actually make the world economy more robust, would it not?       For example, most technology manufacturing is done in Taiwan and China.    Most of the wealthier countries no longer have the ability to manufacture state of the art integrated circuits.  This would lead to more trade barriers and increased nationalism.    Economists will tell us that it's more efficient to do the manufacturing where it's cheapest, but I think it would also be much more robust if we could do everything in North America and Europe as well as Asia.

Another topic, the reduction in air travel has got to help the climate change situation.    I've never liked air travel much and the 30 year trend of packing passengers in tighter and tighter makes me actively avoid air travel if at all possible.    Aside from consolidation and bankruptcies, I wonder how this will affect the airline industry in the long term.    I would think people will consider paying more for more personal space next year.

Yes I was thinking the airline industry is going to need a "fresh" approach to win customers back, and have people try a new approach to flying.  That "new" approach could be taking air travel back to what it was in the 70s (80s even?) and making it an enjoyable experience. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 02, 2020, 05:13:21 PM
I actually do think that if things get bad enough in the US, we might get single payer health care through. It’s going to take a HUGE economic upheaval to make that happen.

It could have happened in 2009 if the financials hadn’t been bailed out - it will take something that big.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Loretta on April 02, 2020, 06:02:59 PM
I don’t see businesses who specialize in things like laser hair removal coming back on the scene anytime soon. 

I think we’ll see the popularity of the flu shot increase in the fall.  Shingles and pneumonia vaccines too I hope.  I had shingles in 2012 and they sucked. 

Now that the majority of commercial gyms in my area are closed and a lot of the high rises with gyms are now locking them down, I’m wondering if we’ll see more trails built out for exercise use.  I’ve seen more people exercising in the streets in my commute this week for sure.  Look out for traffic when crossing the street, Runners! 

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 02, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Now that the majority of commercial gyms in my area are closed and a lot of the high rises with gyms are now locking them down, I’m wondering if we’ll see more trails built out for exercise use.  I’ve seen more people exercising in the streets in my commute this week for sure.  Look out for traffic when crossing the street, Runners!

Yeah, we've definitely seen more walkers and joggers, especially with today's gorgeous weather. The young siblings across the street have played a lot of driveway basketball in the last few weeks, and another pair of siblings were playing games in their front yard while their mom watched. I barely saw either family before the shelter-in-place order, so that was nice.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on April 02, 2020, 08:40:41 PM
I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.

I read an article about restaurants branching out and selling meal kits and even just straight up groceries.  They can still get things from their suppliers, and they are reselling them.  Sometimes it is a 25 pound bag of flour, but sometimes it is an individual can of beans.  (Now, whether those beans and that flour are labeled for legal individual sale, I don't know.)  At a time when many stores are sold out of basics, it's a way to get more of them to people, and for these small businesses to get some revenue.

There's a taco shop near us selling home taco kits (and including a roll of toilet paper with each one). 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 02, 2020, 11:16:54 PM
I also think that tourism to US will be really limited from a risk point.

Just curious, what risk are you referring to? As one who lives here, maybe it's equivalent to that saying about how fish don't notice the water because they live in it? The only thing I can think of is that I've heard some people outside the US mention that they're concerned about the cost of healthcare here, but wouldn't travel health insurance cover that?

The health care cost is dealt with insurance but before the Coronavirus has dissappeared totally you have a large portion of population that has no health insurance or really high cost of health insurance that will deterr people from seeking help, has no sickdays and maybe no financial means to stay home if they are sick. I would also guess that if the virus continues to spread as it is doing now the travel ban to US will not be lifted in a while.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: 2Cent on April 03, 2020, 04:00:24 AM
I think there will be lots of stimuli like the low interest rates in 2009 that will never go away. If enough people will be hopelessly out of work for a longer period, I can see something resembling universal income funded by printing money sticking in some countries. That would nicely combine with the so called gig economy where people are self employed and work every now and then to earn some extras for luxury spending while rent and groceries are paid by basic income.

I actually think more people will go into healthcare that would otherwise go into other idealistic fields as young people are often driven by the image of a job and it is really getting a lot of praise at the moment. (like people signing up for the army during WW2).

Moving industry out of China was already a trend, but this will accelerate as companies are now experiencing the vulnerability of their supply chains. Due to higher employment costs factories that move back to the West will need to be highly automated.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GreenSheep on April 03, 2020, 08:06:23 AM
I also think that tourism to US will be really limited from a risk point.

Just curious, what risk are you referring to? As one who lives here, maybe it's equivalent to that saying about how fish don't notice the water because they live in it? The only thing I can think of is that I've heard some people outside the US mention that they're concerned about the cost of healthcare here, but wouldn't travel health insurance cover that?

The health care cost is dealt with insurance but before the Coronavirus has dissappeared totally you have a large portion of population that has no health insurance or really high cost of health insurance that will deterr people from seeking help, has no sickdays and maybe no financial means to stay home if they are sick. I would also guess that if the virus continues to spread as it is doing now the travel ban to US will not be lifted in a while.

I see. I was thinking post-COVID, since that's in the title of the thread.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Fru-Gal on April 03, 2020, 08:17:32 AM
I like the prediction above that young people will want to become health workers after this.

Interesting that I am seeing 2 predictions in various media that I think are wrong:

1, "life will never go back to what it was" (of course it will, it always does, in the main)

2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other. Of course not every severely mentally ill person will be improved, but many who were suffering mental illness due to affluenza (and whether we realize it or not, we are all suffering from this in one degree or another be it WRT food, entertainment, stuff or money), loneliness, lack of purpose, addiction, societal violence/trauma, school shootings, will be.

I have seen academic evidence from somewhere talking about economic depression and health saying that health improved during the Great Depression.

Is there any more specific evidence around mental health, does anyone know (beyond what could be extrapolated from general health improvement)?

FYI I am not gleefully embracing this crisis. It's scary and no end in sight. Just trying to find the silver linings.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 03, 2020, 10:03:38 AM
I also think that tourism to US will be really limited from a risk point.

Just curious, what risk are you referring to? As one who lives here, maybe it's equivalent to that saying about how fish don't notice the water because they live in it? The only thing I can think of is that I've heard some people outside the US mention that they're concerned about the cost of healthcare here, but wouldn't travel health insurance cover that?

The health care cost is dealt with insurance but before the Coronavirus has dissappeared totally you have a large portion of population that has no health insurance or really high cost of health insurance that will deterr people from seeking help, has no sickdays and maybe no financial means to stay home if they are sick. I would also guess that if the virus continues to spread as it is doing now the travel ban to US will not be lifted in a while.

I see. I was thinking post-COVID, since that's in the title of the thread.


That is a good point. At least here in Sweden, they tell it will be a long time before we are post-covid and the virus will be flashing up from time to time even when the worst crisis is over. So my response was written with that in mind.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on April 03, 2020, 10:03:53 AM
I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.

I read an article about restaurants branching out and selling meal kits and even just straight up groceries.  They can still get things from their suppliers, and they are reselling them.  Sometimes it is a 25 pound bag of flour, but sometimes it is an individual can of beans.  (Now, whether those beans and that flour are labeled for legal individual sale, I don't know.)  At a time when many stores are sold out of basics, it's a way to get more of them to people, and for these small businesses to get some revenue.

There's a taco shop near us selling home taco kits (and including a roll of toilet paper with each one).
Several of ours are doing this.  One Mexican place selling family meal kits, but also 1-25 lb bags of rice, beans. Tortillas, tomatoes, eggs, avocados.

The BBQ place is also selling eggs, rice, beans, meat, etc.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: MilesTeg on April 03, 2020, 10:17:56 AM
I eat our rarely, but I could see smart restaurant owners converting to a scaled down delivery/takeout model exclusively. Not just for big city centers but also for suburban communities. Just think, you could convert a strip mall into a string of 10 small take-out/delivery options. You could have a delivery company that handles delivery for all the restaurants and when things get back to normal you could include a decent patio for those who would like to set and eat. Kind of like a mall food court that is outside and offers delivery. Now if only if I had the capital and know how. Oh well. I'm sure I'm not the first with that idea.

I read an article about restaurants branching out and selling meal kits and even just straight up groceries.  They can still get things from their suppliers, and they are reselling them.  Sometimes it is a 25 pound bag of flour, but sometimes it is an individual can of beans.  (Now, whether those beans and that flour are labeled for legal individual sale, I don't know.)  At a time when many stores are sold out of basics, it's a way to get more of them to people, and for these small businesses to get some revenue.

There's a taco shop near us selling home taco kits (and including a roll of toilet paper with each one).

Hah, sorry but the TP with the taco kit is.. hilarious. Taco Bell needs to take note for the future.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Steeze on April 03, 2020, 10:41:33 AM
I could see some trends occurring, even if only for a couple years.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cassie on April 03, 2020, 10:58:14 AM
We love cruises and go once or twice a year. Don’t know if I will ever get on one again.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: deborah on April 03, 2020, 11:10:10 AM
It’s estimated here that 70% of work cannot be WFH. The MMM forum tends to include more of the 30%, so we tend to think that a WFH blitz is feasible.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 03, 2020, 11:18:27 AM
It’s estimated here that 70% of work cannot be WFH. The MMM forum tends to include more of the 30%, so we tend to think that a WFH blitz is feasible.

30% is an enormous amount of work that could be done from home, that is not at all a small number.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Jouer on April 03, 2020, 11:23:28 AM
I agree with others that work from home options will likely increase. Sometimes companies need to see for themselves how well it can work. An office fire 6-7 years ago started my work from home life. Our company found we worked quite well from home while the office was being cleaned/rebuilt so offered us the option to work from the office or from home.

Question: those who think work from home will reduce the number of employees. I don't see the correlation - mind explaining it to me?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Jouer on April 03, 2020, 11:27:33 AM
I think there will be some changes but I don't think skipping sporting events, concerts, cruises will be part of that.

Why? We had to close parks and beaches with gates and cops to keep people from congregating. We've had to threaten large fines and even jail time to get some affected people to stay the fuck home out of it. Based on that, I think people will go right back to their old ways as soon as it is socially acceptable to do so.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 03, 2020, 12:15:32 PM
My dh is WFH and not enjoying it one bit. He says everything takes a million times longer. He’s pretty crabby about the whole thing.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: MonkeyJenga on April 03, 2020, 12:21:28 PM
My dh is WFH and not enjoying it one bit. He says everything takes a million times longer. He’s pretty crabby about the whole thing.

I'm semi-FIRE now so I'm not working at all, but I've also hated my periods of full-time WFH. No physical separation to make me stop working ever, lack of social interaction, less motivation to exercise since I lost easy access to my work gym, close proximity to the fridge...
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: pachnik on April 03, 2020, 12:36:20 PM
We love cruises and go once or twice a year. Don’t know if I will ever get on one again.

We've gone on two cruises and really liked them.  I won't be getting on one any time soon. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ixtap on April 03, 2020, 12:51:15 PM
My dh is WFH and not enjoying it one bit. He says everything takes a million times longer. He’s pretty crabby about the whole thing.

Mine has been WFH for 3 weeks and is still figuring out his ergo set up.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: totoro on April 03, 2020, 03:09:25 PM
I know what has changed for me:

1. No longer as interested in international travel.  Permanent change in my view.  Lots of beautiful things to see locally and sanitation and environmental control and management are way more important to me.
2. Even more interested in permaculture and gardening.
3. I have permanently lost some faith in the ability of a significant proportion of our population to exercise critical thought and embrace logical steps for survival.  I have realized that a lot of people don't know how to research and make good decisions - or have no inclination to do so and just follow whatever someone in charge says.  No, seriously.  The whole face mask thing.  WTF?  I spent a lot of time raising awareness about this in my local community, had all the research and contacted the right people. Only now is there a start to community change on this topic because the CDC has indicated they may recommend cloth masks.  I still get angry push-back from people who are convinced that face masks are dangerous for the general public to wear because they'll infect themselves.  And the information is readily available for anyone to review on the internet.  I've now stopped advocating because I think we've reached a critical mass of awareness, but man was a lot of that a thankless waste of time beyond my immediate family and friends and perhaps some of those in leadership.
4. Leading directly from point 3, I am more interested in developing greater self-sufficiency and connection within a small circle of family and friends.   Not a crazy prepper type thing, but a circle of people who make sense.  I will probably not advocate for anything again except to higher levels of government or through the legal system.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Steeze on April 03, 2020, 04:01:48 PM
I know what has changed for me:

1. No longer as interested in international travel.  Permanent change in my view.  Lots of beautiful things to see locally and sanitation and environmental control and management are way more important to me.
2. Even more interested in permaculture and gardening.
3. I have permanently lost some faith in the ability of a significant proportion of our population to exercise critical thought and embrace logical steps for survival.  I have realized that a lot of people don't know how to research and make good decisions - or have no inclination to do so and just follow whatever someone in charge says.  No, seriously.  The whole face mask thing.  WTF?  I spent a lot of time raising awareness about this in my local community, had all the research and contacted the right people. Only now is there a start to community change on this topic because the CDC has indicated they may recommend cloth masks.  I still get angry push-back from people who are convinced that face masks are dangerous for the general public to wear because they'll infect themselves.  And the information is readily available for anyone to review on the internet.  I've now stopped advocating because I think we've reached a critical mass of awareness, but man was a lot of that a thankless waste of time beyond my immediate family and friends and perhaps some of those in leadership.
4. Leading directly from point 3, I am more interested in developing greater self-sufficiency and connection within a small circle of family and friends.   Not a crazy prepper type thing, but a circle of people who make sense.  I will probably not advocate for anything again except to higher levels of government or through the legal system.

#3 reminds me of my father - He actually is on the fence on whether this entire thing is a liberal conspiracy to take away personal freedoms. I get the feeling that he thinks that this is all a media hoax and that the hospitals are not actually overrun. He even pointed me to a video on YouTube where a guy was visiting NYC hospitals that had empty waiting rooms, and no lines out front to get tested like they show on the news.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on April 03, 2020, 04:15:47 PM
I think there will be some changes but I don't think skipping sporting events, concerts, cruises will be part of that.
Why? We had to close parks and beaches with gates and cops to keep people from congregating. We've had to threaten large fines and even jail time to get some affected people to stay the fuck home out of it. Based on that, I think people will go right back to their old ways as soon as it is socially acceptable to do so.

I could see sporting events, concerts, and cruises having a boom once this is all over. A pandemic is really good at reminding people that they should live for today for tomorrow they may die. So far during the lock-down, my 70 year old parents have already planned at least two trips for once things return to normal.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on April 03, 2020, 04:42:46 PM

I have permanently lost some faith in the ability of a significant proportion of our population to exercise critical thought and embrace logical steps for survival.  I have realized that a lot of people don't know how to research and make good decisions

I think this is related to your point :-) In February I did the Rim to Rim hike in the Grand Canyon with my daughter. I trained, with a pack. For months. I did it and had a great time. I am - shall we say - older. I saw people coming down the Canyon in t shirts and sneakers on ice for the first 1/2 mile. It is only a 4000ft drop off the edge if you slip, or slide into someone else. I tried to warn people as we were hiking up, but after a while. I just had to give up. It was nuts. People were asking me if there was a restaurant to eat half way down the Grand Canyon! I have also lost faith!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 03, 2020, 05:15:00 PM
I think mainstream media will change forever. I mean, it's already been going in that direction but this has hurried it up. The major outlets of news, like Trump's press conferences and WHO announcements, only release information that people online have been talking about for the last week. They're woefully behind. I think most sensible people will find the information they need online and go with that, instead of waiting for pronouncements from the powers that be. It's taken Trump how long to suggest wearing facemasks? It took WHO how long to say pandemic??
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: hops on April 03, 2020, 05:22:19 PM
2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other. Of course not every severely mentally ill person will be improved, but many who were suffering mental illness due to affluenza (and whether we realize it or not, we are all suffering from this in one degree or another be it WRT food, entertainment, stuff or money), loneliness, lack of purpose, addiction, societal violence/trauma, school shootings, will be.

I think there will unfortunately be many suicides of healthcare workers relating to this. Some remembrances have already been shared on some of my wife's closed physicians groups.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kyle Schuant on April 03, 2020, 07:27:52 PM
2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other.
When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: runbikerun on April 04, 2020, 01:24:29 AM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Hula Hoop on April 04, 2020, 03:53:39 AM
2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other.
When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.

Yes exactly.  I'm lucky that I've been able to work from home since we were locked down on March 9 but my husband lost his job and many people we know both lost their jobs. Our town here in Italy heavily relies on tourism.  There are several of my kids' classmates who are in danger of not being able to afford food at this point in the lock down.  Luckily, evictions have been halted.  Our kids' school is organizing a fund-raiser for families in need at the school. 

Obviously, the situation here in Italy is critical and no one I know is questioning the PM's decision to lock us down.  But as we get to nearly a month of lock down (all industry apart from critical industries have also been closed down) it's beginning to get difficult to feed everyone.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: scottish on April 04, 2020, 10:32:57 AM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

This pisses me off.   How could we be so sloppy as to rely on foreign sources for things like N95 masks?     

We had a huge stockpile (55M) of masks from the sars outbreak 15 years ago and nobody was managing them.  (Most of them have expired)

I wonder if they're really useless now.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: marble_faun on April 04, 2020, 11:13:55 AM
It's not just other countries.  The federal government has also seized medical supplies ordered by states like Massachusetts.  It can now redistribute the supplies as it pleases.

Gonna be honest, I'm embarrassed for our country and the utter incompetence of our government.  There has been no real leadership through this crisis.  Just misinformation and power-plays as millions lose their jobs and the bodies pile up.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 04, 2020, 11:18:38 AM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LWYRUP on April 04, 2020, 11:48:51 AM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 04, 2020, 12:10:14 PM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.

Have you read those articles? I followed the articles about Germany back to their sources and it seems the shipments were illegal. That's why they were seized. No one is suggesting that countries don't have the right to limit exports of items they need domestically. That's different from taking goods that had been paid for by another country while they were being moved from one plane to another in a third country.

You don't have to worry about what's true and what isn't. It will all come out in the years and years of analysis after this pandemic. Courses will be taught in universities about how it was handled. I personally don't think the USA will come out looking too neighbourly, but that's just my opinion.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LWYRUP on April 04, 2020, 12:31:04 PM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.

Have you read those articles? I followed the articles about Germany back to their sources and it seems the shipments were illegal. That's why they were seized. No one is suggesting that countries don't have the right to limit exports of items they need domestically. That's different from taking goods that had been paid for by another country while they were being moved from one plane to another in a third country.

You don't have to worry about what's true and what isn't. It will all come out in the years and years of analysis after this pandemic. Courses will be taught in universities about how it was handled. I personally don't think the USA will come out looking too neighbourly, but that's just my opinion.

If I had to guess, the truth will be in the eye of the beholder, and the version told by the CCP, Russia, USA, Europe, etc. will all be very different.  And they will all contain some truths and some distortions, either intentionally or due to the blinders of ideological bias.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on April 04, 2020, 02:39:48 PM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

This pisses me off.   How could we be so sloppy as to rely on foreign sources for things like N95 masks?     

We had a huge stockpile (55M) of masks from the sars outbreak 15 years ago and nobody was managing them.  (Most of them have expired)

I wonder if they're really useless now.

The n95 filters don't go bad if properly stored.  The elastic bands that affix the mask to the face degrade though.  If we have 55 million masks, they're usable, but might require jerry rigging to hold them up safely/correctly.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 04, 2020, 07:04:21 PM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

I think America has burned a of bridges over the last few years. I think that even your administration might be unaware of just how many, because other countries are still using a little thing called diplomacy. It's kind of like bad service in a restaurant - you might not complain, but you won't go back and you'll tell your friends. Whether Trump gets in or not, the USA might find far fewer countries willing to get involved in whatever the USA is wanting to do. If Trump does get in, that effect will be ten fold. This thing with Canada and the masks? Trudeau isn't a complete arse, so he won't be retaliating...... but I bet he won't be backing the USA for much in the future.

Except that all these other countries have done the exact same thing:

France seizes masks:  https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/france-seizes-millions-of-masks-gloves-intended-for-spain-and-italy

Germany seizes  masks:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/germany-faces-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany bans export of medical supplies:  https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-exports/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUSL8N2AX3D9

Germany, again, seizing medical supplies going to Switzerland:  https://www.rt.com/news/483582-germany--switzerland-medical-supplies-coronavirus/

India reducing pharma exports:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-drugs/europe-panicking-over-indias-pharmaceutical-export-curbs-industry-group-idUSKBN20R1MD

China nationalizing 3M factory:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

I could go on.  I found all of these with like three minutes of google searching, with slightly more effort there are hundreds of such articles 

It's amazing how 50 people will do something and Trump is one of them and then all of a sudden it's like everyone suddenly comes down with selective short term memory loss.

Have you read those articles? I followed the articles about Germany back to their sources and it seems the shipments were illegal. That's why they were seized. No one is suggesting that countries don't have the right to limit exports of items they need domestically. That's different from taking goods that had been paid for by another country while they were being moved from one plane to another in a third country.

You don't have to worry about what's true and what isn't. It will all come out in the years and years of analysis after this pandemic. Courses will be taught in universities about how it was handled. I personally don't think the USA will come out looking too neighbourly, but that's just my opinion.

If I had to guess, the truth will be in the eye of the beholder, and the version told by the CCP, Russia, USA, Europe, etc. will all be very different.  And they will all contain some truths and some distortions, either intentionally or due to the blinders of ideological bias.

I kind of agree. It'll be fascinating to see how this is all viewed once there's a bit of distance. There will be horrific stories come out on all sides.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: 2Cent on April 06, 2020, 01:29:55 AM
I'm really curious what the impact will be on our relationship with China. On the one hand China is trying to move into a global leadership position with a charm and propaganda offensive. I'm sure when the economic hits come they will make further moves to make the world dependent on them. On the other hand with the global supply chain disrupted many countries are now feeling how dependent they already are. So there will also be a counter move to loosen ties with China. It might be that the world divides into China dependent and China independent countries similar to the cold war east west divide.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: former player on April 06, 2020, 02:34:41 AM
Quote
When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.

Yeah, we're not broke or hungry yet, but my husband did lose his job because of this. He's happy about that because it was a dangerous job with a shitty employer and they were taking advantage of him, and he'd rather be alive than going into virus-filled areas with no protection. But he's itching to get back to work, and will likely not have trouble (the shitty folks are begging already) since he does work most people are relying on right now.

The question of whether a pandemic and/or global crisis is positively or negatively correlated with depression and suicide is not easily answered. Poverty is not associated with suicide, but unemployment is, and the Depression did have a high suicide rate. War tends to have a lower rate. And I can't find anything that studies how a pandemic affects suicide and mental health. However, part of the reason I made a prediction that mental health would improve is because suicide rates have been unusually high in the last few years and no one knows the reason (social media, drugs, mental health). So if they were high already, the pandemic might cause them to fall.
My understanding is that it is the feeling of a loss of social/economic status and being on the wrong side of significant societal inequality that drives a lot of mental health issues and suicides.  When economic pain is generalised among a large group of people then that is less of a factor.  The big issue will be how societies come out of this: will those who have lost most from the shutdown have a ladder back to prosperity and will there be measures to help lessen economic inequalities, or will the fat cats and the profiteers be allowed to get even richer while the working classes get left behind?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 06, 2020, 04:01:33 AM
Quote
When you're broke, hungry, and essentially locked inside your home, it's kind of hard to be thinking about how it's all for the public good.

Yeah, we're not broke or hungry yet, but my husband did lose his job because of this. He's happy about that because it was a dangerous job with a shitty employer and they were taking advantage of him, and he'd rather be alive than going into virus-filled areas with no protection. But he's itching to get back to work, and will likely not have trouble (the shitty folks are begging already) since he does work most people are relying on right now.

The question of whether a pandemic and/or global crisis is positively or negatively correlated with depression and suicide is not easily answered. Poverty is not associated with suicide, but unemployment is, and the Depression did have a high suicide rate. War tends to have a lower rate. And I can't find anything that studies how a pandemic affects suicide and mental health. However, part of the reason I made a prediction that mental health would improve is because suicide rates have been unusually high in the last few years and no one knows the reason (social media, drugs, mental health). So if they were high already, the pandemic might cause them to fall.
My understanding is that it is the feeling of a loss of social/economic status and being on the wrong side of significant societal inequality that drives a lot of mental health issues and suicides.  When economic pain is generalised among a large group of people then that is less of a factor.  The big issue will be how societies come out of this: will those who have lost most from the shutdown have a ladder back to prosperity and will there be measures to help lessen economic inequalities, or will the fat cats and the profiteers be allowed to get even richer while the working classes get left behind?

Not much of a question when you've got a fat orange cat making the rules.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Fru-Gal on April 06, 2020, 11:20:39 AM
Interestingly, suicide is not correlated with socio-economic status. It's highly correlated with gun ownership (not the only factor of course). In America, white males comprise 70% of all suicides, while African Americans have the lowest rate of all ethnicities. Latin America has high poverty and inequality and the lowest suicide rates in the world.

Sources:

1. https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

2. work I completed for a public health agency
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIRE Artist on April 06, 2020, 11:49:36 AM
Interestingly, suicide is not correlated with socio-economic status. It's highly correlated with gun ownership (not the only factor of course). In America, white males comprise 70% of all suicides, while African Americans have the lowest rate of all ethnicities. Latin America has high poverty and inequality and the lowest suicide rates in the world.

Sources:

1. https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

2. work I completed for a public health agency

OT

Malcom Gladwell's latest book Talking to Strangers talks about the link of the rate of suicide to the individual's preferred method of suicide.  It is pretty fascinating.  He talks about how the UK switching from coal gas to natural gas eliminated the option of sticking your head in an oven, and how as a result suicide deaths plummeted.  The argument is that if the preferred method of suicide is not available, people don't go out and find another method, contrary to what is common belief.  He made the same argument about putting rails up on the Golden Gate Bridge. 

Thought you might enjoy the book. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Psychstache on April 06, 2020, 12:41:05 PM
Interestingly, suicide is not correlated with socio-economic status. It's highly correlated with gun ownership (not the only factor of course). In America, white males comprise 70% of all suicides, while African Americans have the lowest rate of all ethnicities. Latin America has high poverty and inequality and the lowest suicide rates in the world.

Sources:

1. https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

2. work I completed for a public health agency

OT

Malcom Gladwell's latest book Talking to Strangers talks about the link of the rate of suicide to the individual's preferred method of suicide.  It is pretty fascinating.  He talks about how the UK switching from coal gas to natural gas eliminated the option of sticking your head in an oven, and how as a result suicide deaths plummeted.  The argument is that if the preferred method of suicide is not available, people don't go out and find another method, contrary to what is common belief.  He made the same argument about putting rails up on the Golden Gate Bridge. 

Thought you might enjoy the book.

Yes, I enjoyed all of talking with strangers and this chapter particularly, since it ties into my work.

The Interpersonal Theory of Suicide is also a useful model for thinking about suicidality. In a very short oversimplified form, suicide ideation begins when you have two factors: failed belongingness (loss of a tribe) and perceived burdensomeness (believing that those you care about would be better off if you were gone). When these factors are present, it presents a risk of suicide, particularly for those who have high acquired ability, or the ability to handle pain and discomfort to be able to go through with the act.

It is an interesting model with evidence and support. It helps explain why increased firearms lead to increased suicides (no need for an acquired ability if your method of suicide is painless) and why some groups might have higher levels of suicide than expected (veterans, individuals with eating disorders). Dr. Thomas Joiner's book "Why People Die By Suicide" is a great resource for the interested parties.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Fru-Gal on April 06, 2020, 01:34:47 PM
Interesting stuff, thanks for the book recommendation.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: jinga nation on April 06, 2020, 06:45:57 PM
Somewhat more people, but not most people, will remember being short on money when they were out of a job and will start spending less.

This will be good for them, but not good for the economy as a whole as it will make it harder for businesses who (barely) got through the upcoming bad times to ever recover.

Seriously doubt it. Humans are fickle and have short memories. After the last recession / housing bust, we're now at record highs for personal borrowing. Didn't learn jack shit.

Rinse & Repeat.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Loretta on April 06, 2020, 07:10:45 PM
Will the concept of checking in on our isolated mentally ill/unstable cohort remain once we’ve returned to business as usual?  I had been in a lot of communication with a college friend who is now schizophrenic and oh my gosh call me a villain but I had to stop communicating with her.  I’m afraid telehealth is not going to be enough support for her but she also needs to take some responsibility and do what she needs to do.  Don’t be arguing with schizophrenics, lesson learned.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 06, 2020, 09:06:25 PM
Will the concept of checking in on our isolated mentally ill/unstable cohort remain once we’ve returned to business as usual?  I had been in a lot of communication with a college friend who is now schizophrenic and oh my gosh call me a villain but I had to stop communicating with her.  I’m afraid telehealth is not going to be enough support for her but she also needs to take some responsibility and do what she needs to do.  Don’t be arguing with schizophrenics, lesson learned.

It's not villainous to accept you can't deal with someone, for whatever reason. You need to be cognizant of your own mental health/energy levels/priorities also.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: js82 on April 06, 2020, 09:29:50 PM
- Online courses / e-learning / homeschooling. For both K-12 and universities, I think the sudden wide availability of school at home will continue. Many people may permanently pull their kids out of school over ongoing illness issues now that they've been forced to learn to homeschool.

-  Universities will go bankrupt eventually. Lots of money is tied up in having a fancy campus. With universities being closed we are learning  the optics of those fancy buildings do little to contribute to the education of students. Please note, I am not arguing that university buildings themselves are pointless. Many hours spent in science labs were the fundamentals of my education. The $$$ spent on optics for a university may no longer be valued as much.

I think the business models for universities will change, and probably for the better.  I think the footprint per student will go down, and more institutions will find ways to offer effective remote instruction.  This *should* have the effect of driving tuition down, if executed well.

Not every university will go bankrupt, but this shift will lead to economies of scale, which will probably mean fewer, larger universities, with a bigger online presence and smaller physical footprints on a per-student basis.

Other thoughts/hopes:
-I'm hoping corporate culture around staying home while sick will change.  Even if it's not Covid-19, coming into work while you're sick and infecting coworkers isn't good for the company - but some companies encourage employees to do just that, due either to stingy sick leave policies or screwed-up corporate culture.  This needs to change, and this might be the catalyst.

-People will remember that truckers, grocery store employees, etc. are *essential* workers, and that their jobs are important and deserve respect, even if they aren't paid the same as a CEO.

-A lot of anti-vaxxers will become *former* anti-vaxxers

-The death of certain retail chains(not a hope, but it's almost guaranteed to happen).  For struggling chains, this is probably their death knell.  In this environment, Amazon wins, brick-and-mortar loses.  And it's unlikely to return to "normal" for some time after this pandemic ends.

-People will realize that a certain level of medical support is essential from a public health perspective, and can actually save everyone money.  Making treatment for Covid-19 free is great, but it's not the only disease out there where having people uninsured that can't get treatment/preventative care only ends up costing society more than it would if we simply made treatment accessible for everyone.


I may be dreaming on some of these, but I do think this pandemic has the potential to be an "aha!" moment for a number of things that really ought to change, and could be a catalyst for improving at least a few of them.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: marble_faun on April 07, 2020, 09:07:17 AM
The pandemic might spell the end of the typical movie theater. 

With theaters closed for COVID, studios are releasing their new films onto streaming platforms. For a long time the theaters were able to combat streaming and give themselves a window of exclusive time. But that might not be the case in the future.

The theaters that survive will have some sort of gimmick.  Like an interesting atmosphere or other entertainments to go along with the film which you can't experience at home. 

The average suburban multiplexes probably aren't going to hack it. They might struggle to survive for a few more years, but ultimately they will go the way of Blockbuster and Hollywood Video.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: marble_faun on April 07, 2020, 09:28:08 AM
I really don't mean to be provocative, but depending on how the US responds to the next phases of the pandemic, I wonder how that will impact the gun rights movement in America. Over here, we are in country-wide lockdown enforced (in different ways in different areas) by the police. New crimes have been created, such as "coronavirus coughing" (deliberately coughing at people and claiming you have coronavirus). I know other countries are tracking mobile data to track transmission.

This seems to me like a classic case of the kind of tyrannical government gun supporters want the right to fight against. Will the lack of such controls be painted as a win by gun supporters? Or, if they come in, will the gun supporters take to the streets to fight it? If not, will their tyrannical government argument no longer hold as much weight?

@shelivesthedream : Sure enough, some people see coronavirus restrictions as infringements on their rights and are prepared to put up "physical defense" against the government: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-idaho-bundy-patriot.html

(These are the same people who tried to take over a wildlife refuge and had an armed stand-off with the government a few years back.)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on April 07, 2020, 09:57:29 AM
The pandemic might spell the end of the typical movie theater. 

With theaters closed for COVID, studios are releasing their new films onto streaming platforms. For a long time the theaters were able to combat streaming and give themselves a window of exclusive time. But that might not be the case in the future.

The theaters that survive will have some sort of gimmick.  Like an interesting atmosphere or other entertainments to go along with the film which you can't experience at home. 

The average suburban multiplexes probably aren't going to hack it. They might struggle to survive for a few more years, but ultimately they will go the way of Blockbuster and Hollywood Video.
I don't really see that happening.  I like watching movies in the comfort of my own home, when I can pause and go pee.

But my husband LOVES the theater.  It's his thing.  He goes often (compared to me anyway, maybe 6 movies a year), and with our kid, and I bought him a gift card for Christmas.  What's more, I know several people who see a LOT of movies.  Weekly, at least.

Added to that, there are now (in several metro areas) "fancy" theaters where they serve food and drinks (I remember in the 1990s, we had one small theater that did that).  I see the popularity of those growing, not reducing. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Psychstache on April 07, 2020, 10:03:51 AM
The pandemic might spell the end of the typical movie theater. 

With theaters closed for COVID, studios are releasing their new films onto streaming platforms. For a long time the theaters were able to combat streaming and give themselves a window of exclusive time. But that might not be the case in the future.

The theaters that survive will have some sort of gimmick.  Like an interesting atmosphere or other entertainments to go along with the film which you can't experience at home. 

The average suburban multiplexes probably aren't going to hack it. They might struggle to survive for a few more years, but ultimately they will go the way of Blockbuster and Hollywood Video.
I don't really see that happening.  I like watching movies in the comfort of my own home, when I can pause and go pee.

But my husband LOVES the theater.  It's his thing.  He goes often (compared to me anyway, maybe 6 movies a year), and with our kid, and I bought him a gift card for Christmas.  What's more, I know several people who see a LOT of movies.  Weekly, at least.

Added to that, there are now (in several metro areas) "fancy" theaters where they serve food and drinks (I remember in the 1990s, we had one small theater that did that).  I see the popularity of those growing, not reducing.

Theaters that have a schtick and go above and beyond the atmosphere that can be developed at home will make it. I think OPs argument that we will have far fewer TOTAL theaters is likely.

We still enjoy going to see blockbusters starring explosions in the fancy theaters, but I can't remember the last time I set foot in an old school AMC or Cinemark type place.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: rantk81 on April 07, 2020, 10:14:18 AM
Theaters have really "upped their game" in the past few years.
Attached full service restaurants/bars.  Very large reclining seats, shared love-seats for couples.  Waiter/waitress service.  Much improved audio systems, etc.
With these improvements, the prices have gone up a little. However, I can see how the "value" of going out to the movies these days (pre-corona) has given the movie-go'er more bang-for-their-buck.

In spite of all of that, I still prefer my living room though :)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: jinga nation on April 07, 2020, 12:27:59 PM
Cash will probably go away. I know most here don't use cash but I imagine the look of horror and disgust a cashier will have when someone tried to pay with virus encrusted dollars that they must touch and return in change. I wonder if pole dancers, strippers, etc take Am Ex.
They'll wear NFC payment system like Square's reader for contactless. Wonder if they'll accept chip insertion or mag stripe... hmmm... only one way to find out.
"Honey, this is a research trip to Club de Tetas."
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Travis on April 07, 2020, 05:40:35 PM
Cash will probably go away. I know most here don't use cash but I imagine the look of horror and disgust a cashier will have when someone tried to pay with virus encrusted dollars that they must touch and return in change. I wonder if pole dancers, strippers, etc take Am Ex.
They'll wear NFC payment system like Square's reader for contactless. Wonder if they'll accept chip insertion or mag stripe... hmmm... only one way to find out.
"Honey, this is a research trip to Club de Tetas."

That seductive hand reaching around your waist? RF swiping your wallet.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: driftwood on April 07, 2020, 07:23:31 PM
Will people try to move to jobs/careers that are more 'essential'? 

I am luckily in a job that pays no matter what happens (well almost, but pretty close). I've stuck with this job primarily because of the stability it provides. I've abandoned dreams and hopes of turning something I love into a job that pays enough, because nothing I'm interested in doing pays enough to support me and my ex wife and my kids like this job does. Now, this 'sacrifice' is paying off, I don't have to stress about unemployment at all, even if I'm doing zero work.

I see others who are self-employed or in businesses that don't provide anything essential to a society in an emergency, and many are SOL as their businesses can't operate.

This isn't a judgement on their choices, there are pros and cons to each side. But will this event push those who took risks to do things they love that aren't really necessary back to bland grinding jobs with more security?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: okits on April 07, 2020, 07:46:16 PM
Will people try to move to jobs/careers that are more 'essential'? 

Really good question, @driftwood .  My spouse has been approached multiple times in the past to go on contract and make a whole lot more.  Right now we're really appreciating the stability of being a full-time employee with benefits and having built up some goodwill at an employer.

In my close circle, three of us work in quasi-gov big orgs.  No worries about them keeping the lights on.  One friend just left private industry for that more-secure job.  Great timing.

Depending on the extent of financial pain people feel through this and the perceived insecurity of the future, jobs that offer more stability might look far more attractive in the short/medium-term. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: jojoguy on April 08, 2020, 01:38:32 AM
Online orders, grocery delivery, and sidewalk pickup were already on the up and up before the current situation. This whole thing probably put the whole idea into hyperspeed even after the pandemic ends. If this pandemic ends later than sooner, people will keep many of the habits they are employing right now.

Personal side note: I have been spending less because how much we are staying indoors.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Bettersafe on April 08, 2020, 02:10:33 AM
2, depression and suicide will increase. I predict the opposite, because a universal crisis is a focusing moment like no other. Of course not every severely mentally ill person will be improved, but many who were suffering mental illness due to affluenza (and whether we realize it or not, we are all suffering from this in one degree or another be it WRT food, entertainment, stuff or money), loneliness, lack of purpose, addiction, societal violence/trauma, school shootings, will be.

I think there will unfortunately be many suicides of healthcare workers relating to this. Some remembrances have already been shared on some of my wife's closed physicians groups.

I'm very worried about this and reached out to my physician friends to check up on them. What will be fundamentally change from this? IMHO I think in healthcare there will be more attention to mental health of the healthcare workers themselves and things like prevention-programs and business accident teams wil be expanded en become normal instead of an exception they were before.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 08, 2020, 05:26:42 AM
Will people try to move to jobs/careers that are more 'essential'? 

I am luckily in a job that pays no matter what happens (well almost, but pretty close). I've stuck with this job primarily because of the stability it provides. I've abandoned dreams and hopes of turning something I love into a job that pays enough, because nothing I'm interested in doing pays enough to support me and my ex wife and my kids like this job does. Now, this 'sacrifice' is paying off, I don't have to stress about unemployment at all, even if I'm doing zero work.

I see others who are self-employed or in businesses that don't provide anything essential to a society in an emergency, and many are SOL as their businesses can't operate.

This isn't a judgement on their choices, there are pros and cons to each side. But will this event push those who took risks to do things they love that aren't really necessary back to bland grinding jobs with more security?

I'm in a pretty essential healthcare job and I've been shut down for my own safety even moreso than for the safety of my patients.

What's essential and what stays open really depends on what the crisis is.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: MayDay on April 08, 2020, 05:54:13 AM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

This pisses me off.   How could we be so sloppy as to rely on foreign sources for things like N95 masks?     

We had a huge stockpile (55M) of masks from the sars outbreak 15 years ago and nobody was managing them.  (Most of them have expired)

I wonder if they're really useless now.

Regarding expiration: I believe the main risk is that the elastic straps degraded. If they were properly stored there is a chance they are ok.

I think pre-trump it was reasonable for the is and Canada to say: hey you make masks, we'll make gowns, we can each make our thing cheaper, and we'll swap.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 08, 2020, 06:04:58 AM
I'm going to try to state this in as neutral a way as possible:

If Trump is reelected, or comes quite close, then there will be substantial changes to both world politics and to corporate structures.

The news from 3M that the Trump administration had tried to stop them from exporting masks to Canada, and the reports about shipments to other countries being redirected to the States and Trump's efforts to gain sole access to a vaccine, will probably spur other countries to plan for a different future in which their economies and supply chains are separated as much as possible from the US. There is at this point little benefit to being allied to the US as long as Trump remains in charge.

For similar reasons, a lot of global corporations will either seriously consider splitting themselves up or else shifting their headquarters elsewhere to avoid being caught between two competing countries. If an American company's factory in Germany, for example, can be ordered to export all essential supplies to the US, then forced nationalisation of the facility by Germany becomes a real risk. Shift HQ to Dublin, though, and the company is now an EU firm with American operations.

This pisses me off.   How could we be so sloppy as to rely on foreign sources for things like N95 masks?     

We had a huge stockpile (55M) of masks from the sars outbreak 15 years ago and nobody was managing them.  (Most of them have expired)

I wonder if they're really useless now.

Regarding expiration: I believe the main risk is that the elastic straps degraded. If they were properly stored there is a chance they are ok.

I think pre-trump it was reasonable for the is and Canada to say: hey you make masks, we'll make gowns, we can each make our thing cheaper, and we'll swap.

Pre-Trump the US had positive relationships with other nations.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 08, 2020, 06:29:55 AM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Spud on April 08, 2020, 06:30:23 AM
Personal side note: I have been spending less because how much we are staying indoors.

I was thinking about this yesterday. Seeing your comment has prompted me to post.

This will be something of a brain splurge, so bear with me.

Over the past few years we've had quite a few threads on the forum that asked what the world would be like if everybody was Mustachian, and more specifically, what would the world be like if everyone had the same consumer habits as the people who ended up responding to the thread. One of these threads even asked respondents what companies/industries would cease to exist if everyone on the planet had the same consumer habits as they did.

Well, here we are. Yes, we've arrived here via a pandemic (it's horrible with the loss of life and the economic downturn) which was unexpected, but we are now living a reality that is as close as anyone could have imagined to the hypothetical scenarios outlined in those threads.

Personally, my consumption habits haven't really altered as I have a very strong personal belief that reducing consumption of anything and everything is the single best was we can help the planet. That's another topic for another thread. However, speaking to lots of people online, friends, family, colleagues, neighbours, they're all saying the same thing. They're not buying anything other than food and they've never had so much money in their bank accounts.

Post COVID, I don't think anything will change. Although I'd like it to. I believe that once this lockdown comes to an end, we'll simply see people flooding back into the shops and restaurants and ramping consumption, pollution and spending back up to previous levels.

Sadly I don't think many people will reflect on the fact that in many ways they may well be happier and more content, but they simply don't realise it because they have been robbed of watching sport on the TV and sitting around in a bar getting drunk or hitting the drive-thru McDonald's twice a day.

I must admit from an economic perspective, I like the idea of the recession clearing out the dead wood from the economies around the world, getting rid of the companies that were basically on their knees anyway.

That said, I'm also aware that massive corporate debt is probably what is keeping much of the developing world afloat and that highly leveraged businesses that are seen as safe, successful and possibly essential might well disappear with negative consequences for those employed and the economy as a whole.

Not so long ago I read statistics about Christmas shopping here in the UK and how it's shifting more and more each year to online shopping and we're seeing fewer consumers venturing into physical shops of any kind. I think this pandemic will have accelerated that shift by about 10 years in less than 1 year. Post-COVID I think the only places that will be in demand are anywhere that serves food and drink because people still meet there for social purposes. I think places that fulfil needs as mundane as getting a new pair of boots, trousers or a shirt will experience an even bigger shift to the internet. If they're not ready with an established online presence, then it's game over.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: merula on April 08, 2020, 07:46:11 AM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I knew about it as a concept, but didn't really start thinking about it until I started doing volunteer low-income tax prep.

Some of the clients I see have complicated tax situations and ITINs and stuff, but the vast majority don't need the program or me. If they had access to a library and basic computer skills, they could use the free filing programs to enter their W-2s and dependents and be done with it. But they don't, so I do their data entry for them, and have the IRS mail them a check that they will take to their local check-cashing joint.

I also used to think check-cashing places were a total scam, but they're less of a scam than banks. The fees are right up front and you don't need to have any background knowledge on how the system works to use them.

But how do we solve it? Remove the expectations that everyone have middle-class knowledge bases? Educate people who have very little extra time as it is?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: former player on April 08, 2020, 09:33:12 AM
Something not to forget is that a not-insubstantial proportion of the adult population is functionally illiterate - that is as big a barrier as poverty to an online life or even having a bank account.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: JGS1980 on April 08, 2020, 09:46:27 AM
Personal side note: I have been spending less because how much we are staying indoors.
Post COVID, I don't think anything will change. Although I'd like it to. I believe that once this lockdown comes to an end, we'll simply see people flooding back into the shops and restaurants and ramping consumption, pollution and spending back up to previous levels.

Sadly I don't think many people will reflect on the fact that in many ways they may well be happier and more content, but they simply don't realise it because they have been robbed of watching sport on the TV and sitting around in a bar getting drunk or hitting the drive-thru McDonald's twice a day.

Agree wholeheartedly with the above. Self-Reflection is a superpower, because most human beings have none of it.

JGS
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: DadJokes on April 08, 2020, 11:01:58 AM
I would add that the world of sports is ripe for a change.  People may recognize that it is not an important part of their lives, they may not be as comfortable with large gatherings and the economics of big sports will shift.

Very late reply, but this stuck out to me.

Since football is the most popular sport in the country, and its season (which starts in September or so) is unlikely to be interrupted. Also, as most people watch it on TV, not in person, I don't see much changing there.

I'm a season ticket holder for a professional hockey team, and that's been one of the most difficult things to go without. I was on the fence about renewing for next season, due to price increases. However, going a month without has been terrible, and I'm more likely to renew now than I was before the outbreak.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 08, 2020, 01:22:27 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

This is like reading a book from 30 years ago.

I can understand that some elderly people don't have computers or smartphones but then I am talking about people that are in their 80s or 90s like my grandfather.  But even they have debit cards and bank accounts. Can't low income people get bank accounts or why do they not have bank accounts? How do you get your pension or salary paid out? Here you can't even get your pension or salary paid out if you don't have a bank account. Everyone can get a debit card but I guess not a credit card and internet banking is the norm and the cheapest option for paying your bills.

You can do your taxes by text message or internet if you need to do deductions.  We have some talk about digitalization going to fast for elderly but I haven't seen any talk about problems for low income-people because most of the people have smartphones. There has also been some talk about that the updates in phones are forcing people to update their phones too often and that is a problem for low income earners and those with low pensions.

Organisations for retired, libraries and some institutions are offering courses for elderly to learn to use smartphones, iPads and computers.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: renata ricotta on April 08, 2020, 01:27:27 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

This is like reading a book from 30 years ago.

I can understand that some elderly people don't have computers or smartphones but then I am talking about people that are in their 80s or 90s like my grandfather.  But even they have debit cards and bank accounts. Can't low income people get bank accounts or why do they not have bank accounts? How do you get your pension or salary paid out? Here you can't even get your pension or salary paid out if you don't have a bank account. Everyone can get a debit card but I guess not a credit card and internet banking is the norm and the cheapest option for paying your bills.

You can do your taxes by text message or internet if you need to do deductions.  We have some talk about digitalization going to fast for elderly but I haven't seen any talk about problems for low income-people because most of the people have smartphones. There has also been some talk about that the updates in phones are forcing people to update their phones too often and that is a problem for low income earners and those with low pensions.

Organisations for retired, libraries and some institutions are offering courses for elderly to learn to use smartphones, iPads and computers.

Significant numbers of Americans are "unbanked" or underbanked - here's an article an acquaintance of mine wrote on the problem, proposing that the US Postal Service serve as a banking facility for low-income Americans. https://harvardlawreview.org/2014/02/its-time-for-postal-banking/

This similar article estimates that 8% of Americans are unbanked and up to 20% underbanked: https://www.fastcompany.com/90416889/the-answer-to-helping-the-unbanked-exists-on-every-main-street-the-post-office
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ixtap on April 08, 2020, 01:40:14 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

This is like reading a book from 30 years ago.

I can understand that some elderly people don't have computers or smartphones but then I am talking about people that are in their 80s or 90s like my grandfather.  But even they have debit cards and bank accounts. Can't low income people get bank accounts or why do they not have bank accounts? How do you get your pension or salary paid out? Here you can't even get your pension or salary paid out if you don't have a bank account. Everyone can get a debit card but I guess not a credit card and internet banking is the norm and the cheapest option for paying your bills.

You can do your taxes by text message or internet if you need to do deductions.  We have some talk about digitalization going to fast for elderly but I haven't seen any talk about problems for low income-people because most of the people have smartphones. There has also been some talk about that the updates in phones are forcing people to update their phones too often and that is a problem for low income earners and those with low pensions.

Organisations for retired, libraries and some institutions are offering courses for elderly to learn to use smartphones, iPads and computers.

It can be $25/ month or more to get a bank account. A debit card might require a certain balance, in addition to monthly or transaction fees. For a while low wage places like McDonald's were trying to pay employees with these high fee debit cards.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 08, 2020, 02:00:16 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

This is like reading a book from 30 years ago.

I can understand that some elderly people don't have computers or smartphones but then I am talking about people that are in their 80s or 90s like my grandfather.  But even they have debit cards and bank accounts. Can't low income people get bank accounts or why do they not have bank accounts? How do you get your pension or salary paid out? Here you can't even get your pension or salary paid out if you don't have a bank account. Everyone can get a debit card but I guess not a credit card and internet banking is the norm and the cheapest option for paying your bills.

You can do your taxes by text message or internet if you need to do deductions.  We have some talk about digitalization going to fast for elderly but I haven't seen any talk about problems for low income-people because most of the people have smartphones. There has also been some talk about that the updates in phones are forcing people to update their phones too often and that is a problem for low income earners and those with low pensions.

Organisations for retired, libraries and some institutions are offering courses for elderly to learn to use smartphones, iPads and computers.

It can be $25/ month or more to get a bank account. A debit card might require a certain balance, in addition to monthly or transaction fees. For a while low wage places like McDonald's were trying to pay employees with these high fee debit cards.

It is like the banks are robbing people. So, cost of banking is a problem.  The articles talked a lot about loans but I figured you could use services like paying bills etc. You should look into banking in Africa as a model instead of the postal office. They manage a lot of the banking through cellphones.

I pay about 45 USD per year to get the internet banking, a debit and a credit card. I would ditch the cards, that I don't use because I use a credit card that gets me bonus points for flights, it would drop to 15 USD per year. 30-45 USD is a pretty average cost for internetbanking, accounts, cards etc here. Actually, it is really expensive if you want to pay your bills at the bank and don't do it through internet or trough autopay, where they make an automatic withdrawal from your account.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIPurpose on April 08, 2020, 03:43:23 PM
I've only ever banked with USAA. Never had a single fee assessed to me and all my ATM fees are refunded. (Well I may have had some ForEx fees while abroad...)

The amount of fees and hassle people talk about at other banks keeps me from even thinking about changing to a different bank.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: DaMa on April 08, 2020, 04:14:55 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

Every public library I've ever been to has computer classes to teach people how to use the free computers at the library.

Social Security mandates direct deposit.

Ally has free checking, not minimum deposit, no service fees, ATM fees refunded.

My 90 year old grandmother doesn't use a computer or a smart phone, but she uses a credit card.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: scottish on April 08, 2020, 05:03:43 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.
A friend of mine was in the process of writing an article about all the things you could no longer pay for with cash if you don't have a bank account, debt or CC and finding alternate ways to pay for things.  This was before the pandemic and even then it was a fairly long list of essential things. Now, and into the future, that list is likely to grow if basics (like food) can't be bought with cash.

For most of the people he interviewed it was difficult to even get their employer to give them a paper check to cash at a check cashing place instead of direct deposit to a bank account they didn't have.  Most other things like utilities could be paid with Money Orders (those still exist with a fee) but paying rent, mortgage, etc were close to impossible as landlords and loan places move to accepting online payment only. These are people that have no internet, computer, CC, bank accounts or debit cards. It was already tough for them and I think now and going forward it may be impossible. Throw in the "don't trust the internet with my financial stuff" people and the older non-tech users and people like me who never buy anything online and are Luddites for the most part (no I don't own a computer and normally don't  have home internet) and those people will need to make a big shift in order to keep functioning.

Are you posting from your phone then?    Your lack of spelling errors is impressive!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 08, 2020, 07:03:05 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

This is like reading a book from 30 years ago.

I can understand that some elderly people don't have computers or smartphones but then I am talking about people that are in their 80s or 90s like my grandfather.  But even they have debit cards and bank accounts. Can't low income people get bank accounts or why do they not have bank accounts? How do you get your pension or salary paid out? Here you can't even get your pension or salary paid out if you don't have a bank account. Everyone can get a debit card but I guess not a credit card and internet banking is the norm and the cheapest option for paying your bills.

You can do your taxes by text message or internet if you need to do deductions.  We have some talk about digitalization going to fast for elderly but I haven't seen any talk about problems for low income-people because most of the people have smartphones. There has also been some talk about that the updates in phones are forcing people to update their phones too often and that is a problem for low income earners and those with low pensions.

Organisations for retired, libraries and some institutions are offering courses for elderly to learn to use smartphones, iPads and computers.

It can be $25/ month or more to get a bank account. A debit card might require a certain balance, in addition to monthly or transaction fees. For a while low wage places like McDonald's were trying to pay employees with these high fee debit cards.

It is like the banks are robbing people. So, cost of banking is a problem.  The articles talked a lot about loans but I figured you could use services like paying bills etc. You should look into banking in Africa as a model instead of the postal office. They manage a lot of the banking through cellphones.

I pay about 45 USD per year to get the internet banking, a debit and a credit card. I would ditch the cards, that I don't use because I use a credit card that gets me bonus points for flights, it would drop to 15 USD per year. 30-45 USD is a pretty average cost for internetbanking, accounts, cards etc here. Actually, it is really expensive if you want to pay your bills at the bank and don't do it through internet or trough autopay, where they make an automatic withdrawal from your account.

Our banking cartel in North America is something to behold.  And here's the kicker: many of the services that they provide could be and are provided much cheaper elsewhere using cellphone based apps such as Alipay or WeChat.  That we still have payday loans and check cashing services in the US is really amazing.   
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: teen persuasion on April 08, 2020, 07:28:50 PM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

I work in a library in a rural area.  We try to help our patrons with access and tech help/training, but it's often a hard sell.  They are afraid of what they don't know.

I've helped people who have never used a computer do job searching online.  I've helped them sign up for an email address, work on tax returns, file the FAFSA, do homework, take online tests, create and send invoices, edit photos and upload to submit online, all sorts of online stuff that they can't do without internet access, or have never done.

Our system has a tech trainer to go to each branch for classes or one on one help, we schedule her and advertise the service, and no one takes advantage (and then call asking for the service!) - frustrating.

I wonder how some of our patrons are managing without access to our computers.  The Wi-Fi is on and can be accessed from outside the building, and we have limited phone hours for reference questions, but building is closed to patrons.  We have some self employed people who use us near daily for copies, faxes, and advice on how to (computer stuff).  They are surely out of work right now, and probably could use advice on unemployment (usually not for SE, but now can file) or PPP loans...


But, as much as we need to be up on many tech platforms to assist patrons, my library is still cash or checks only, no cards, to pay for copies, faxes, fines.

The one bank in the village sits closed.  When the big bank who had the branch decided to leave the US market, it got sold to a local bank system.  They had branches all around the region, so sold it to a competitor system.  A few years later that competitor took over the local system, and assimilation meant they had too many branches , so lots of branches were closed, especially in rural areas, like my village.  So now my library has to utilize a bank in another county (nearest option) instead of having one conveniently on Main St.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: DadJokes on April 09, 2020, 06:47:12 AM
Lightning-fast transitions away from cash, away from in-person shopping, etc. (yes I know we're already moving in that direction) will REALLY hurt the poor and elderly.

I don't know if most technophiles/high income earners think about this or not?

I have a LOT of low-income clients who don't even have email addresses, much less electronic ways to order stuff, pay for stuff, etc. Yes, they already struggle in society in a multitude of ways, but we have to be careful not to leave more "off the grid" people totally behind. The older guy in front of me at the grocery last week paid with a check. Yes, he did. I don't think I've paid in person with a check for a decade or more, maybe 15 years?

Many of my clients don't have bank accounts. They don't have debit cards or credit cards, they have cash and that's how they make transactions. They have to physically go to a store and use it. And these folks aren't going away any time soon.

The school district for my city is trying to distribute chromebooks to families because SO many families don't even have a SINGLE pc/ipad/chromebook  (whereas the "typical middle class family" these days probably has between 5-10 devices of different kinds at home)

I've found it odd that we don't, as a nation, offer ongoing technology education to our citizens. If we want to help teach people to "get on the grid," and then to actually stay up to date with all the constant changes, we are going to have to provide education and probably the devices to help them do that. And tech changes sooooo rapidly, what we learn now may be totally different in 2 years. I'd love to see some sort of "tech rollout" with the next administration.

So yes, I worry about who will be left even further behind if we go LIGHTSPEED with all of these changes.

This is like reading a book from 30 years ago.

I can understand that some elderly people don't have computers or smartphones but then I am talking about people that are in their 80s or 90s like my grandfather.  But even they have debit cards and bank accounts. Can't low income people get bank accounts or why do they not have bank accounts? How do you get your pension or salary paid out? Here you can't even get your pension or salary paid out if you don't have a bank account. Everyone can get a debit card but I guess not a credit card and internet banking is the norm and the cheapest option for paying your bills.

You can do your taxes by text message or internet if you need to do deductions.  We have some talk about digitalization going to fast for elderly but I haven't seen any talk about problems for low income-people because most of the people have smartphones. There has also been some talk about that the updates in phones are forcing people to update their phones too often and that is a problem for low income earners and those with low pensions.

Organisations for retired, libraries and some institutions are offering courses for elderly to learn to use smartphones, iPads and computers.

It can be $25/ month or more to get a bank account. A debit card might require a certain balance, in addition to monthly or transaction fees. For a while low wage places like McDonald's were trying to pay employees with these high fee debit cards.

It is like the banks are robbing people. So, cost of banking is a problem.  The articles talked a lot about loans but I figured you could use services like paying bills etc. You should look into banking in Africa as a model instead of the postal office. They manage a lot of the banking through cellphones.

I pay about 45 USD per year to get the internet banking, a debit and a credit card. I would ditch the cards, that I don't use because I use a credit card that gets me bonus points for flights, it would drop to 15 USD per year. 30-45 USD is a pretty average cost for internetbanking, accounts, cards etc here. Actually, it is really expensive if you want to pay your bills at the bank and don't do it through internet or trough autopay, where they make an automatic withdrawal from your account.

I have banked with a dozen or so banks in my life. Aside from an insufficient balance one time and the cost of ordering checks, I've never paid a bank fee.

Internet is more of a barrier, though almost everyone has data, which is sufficient for banking.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: terran on April 09, 2020, 07:09:02 AM
I have banked with a dozen or so banks in my life. Aside from an insufficient balance one time and the cost of ordering checks, I've never paid a bank fee.

Many banks require something like a $100 balance to avoid a fee. It sounds crazy to us, but for lots of people that's a real problem.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 09, 2020, 07:14:36 AM
Quick story:

Usually, my clients just take their settlement checks at our final meeting and roll out. I mean, I never see "what happens next."

BUT...one time last year I did.

The client was going to our firm's bank to cash his settlement check. I decided to go to the bank for some personal banking. It's right down the street. Long story short, we end up in line together in the bank lobby.

The bank won't cash my client's settlement check because he doesn't have "enough" ID. He needs two forms of ID, which is from a rather limited list (license, credit card, debit card, military ID, student ID, etc). The teller tells me this is to prevent fraud. My client has his license, but not any of the others. He has a whole stack of paycheck stubs in his car, AND I am literally right there telling the bank, "This is a check drawn on our account. He is the intended recipient. I can vouch he is John Doe."

But nope. They won't do it.

But WILL they do?

They will cash the check, with ONLY his ONE ID, IF he opens an account (which costs $50). So he's forced to do that.

So I am like, "What? Wait. You said that the 'Two ID' rule is intended to prevent fraud, but you'll let him open up an account with just ONE form of ID?"

Obviously the bank just wanted to squeeze $50 from this unbanked individual. I don't see how it had anything to do with concerns about fraud. I was very pissed about the situation and my boss spoke with the bank but it's not like they are going to change their policies. All we can do now is warn clients ahead of time of the hoops they need to jump through if they don't have a bank of their own.

I can't imagine how much shit low-income people have to deal with on a daily basis.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 09, 2020, 07:16:58 AM
I have banked with a dozen or so banks in my life. Aside from an insufficient balance one time and the cost of ordering checks, I've never paid a bank fee.

Many banks require something like a $100 balance to avoid a fee. It sounds crazy to us, but for lots of people that's a real problem.

Yep, and don’t forget that banks in the US also check credit scores when people apply to open an account.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 09, 2020, 07:28:54 AM
But back to the topic, I personally don't see how we can allow any large crowds for at least 1.5 years, until there is widespread distribution of a vaccine.

Now, will some events go on? Maybe?

MLB is trying to roll out an interesting form of play for May/June, which sounds potentially workable (all games in AZ, players/staff essentially quarantined to hotels/game sites, shorter games, lots of doublehitters, no one in stands, not even conferences with catcher/pitcher) but we'll see. I mean, baseball has advantages over sports like basketball, soccer, and especially football that all involve so much physical contact.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 09, 2020, 07:36:55 AM
But back to the topic, I personally don't see how we can allow any large crowds for at least 1.5 years, until there is widespread distribution of a vaccine.

Now, will some events go on? Maybe?

MLB is trying to roll out an interesting form of play for May/June, which sounds potentially workable (all games in AZ, players/staff essentially quarantined to hotels/game sites, shorter games, lots of doublehitters, no one in stands, not even conferences with catcher/pitcher) but we'll see. I mean, baseball has advantages over sports like basketball, soccer, and especially football that all involve so much physical contact.

Do you really feel like that will be implemented for that long of a timespan? It feels to me like the quarantine measures we have now are fraying at the edges for a few weeks of it. I guess if you mean large enough for tens of thousands, if the government truly banned things it could work. If we're talking in the hundreds, I sincerely doubt that will happen.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 09, 2020, 07:43:46 AM
But back to the topic, I personally don't see how we can allow any large crowds for at least 1.5 years, until there is widespread distribution of a vaccine.

Now, will some events go on? Maybe?

MLB is trying to roll out an interesting form of play for May/June, which sounds potentially workable (all games in AZ, players/staff essentially quarantined to hotels/game sites, shorter games, lots of doublehitters, no one in stands, not even conferences with catcher/pitcher) but we'll see. I mean, baseball has advantages over sports like basketball, soccer, and especially football that all involve so much physical contact.

Do you really feel like that will be implemented for that long of a timespan? It feels to me like the quarantine measures we have now are fraying at the edges for a few weeks of it. I guess if you mean large enough for tens of thousands, if the government truly banned things it could work. If we're talking in the hundreds, I sincerely doubt that will happen.

Well, ultimately you do what the experts advise, but yeah I acknowledge you have to consider peoples' "breaking points" since compliance is essentially voluntary.

But yeah I just don't see any way you can have big crowds allowed, so big concerts, NASCAR, NFL, soccer, even big political rallies, all of it. I just don't see how you allow it without restarting the whole spiral.

Now can some of this go on without crowds? Maybe!

I honestly think that is the best we can hope for this summer, is that we can have some cookouts in our back yards with small groups of friends. I mean, I would take that in a heart beat! Wouldn't you?

Big question to me is how do schools reopen in August/Sept? I mean, you can only do so much "social distancing" when you pack all these kids in a building, and especially the "littles" are going to struggle with whatever mitigation measures authorities would try to roll out.

Thankfully, we have 4 months to figure this out. But you can't just start schools on a dime. They are going to have to know by June or so what is feasible.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: DadJokes on April 09, 2020, 08:04:53 AM
Quick story:

Usually, my clients just take their settlement checks at our final meeting and roll out. I mean, I never see "what happens next."

BUT...one time last year I did.

The client was going to our firm's bank to cash his settlement check. I decided to go to the bank for some personal banking. It's right down the street. Long story short, we end up in line together in the bank lobby.

The bank won't cash my client's settlement check because he doesn't have "enough" ID. He needs two forms of ID, which is from a rather limited list (license, credit card, debit card, military ID, student ID, etc). The teller tells me this is to prevent fraud. My client has his license, but not any of the others. He has a whole stack of paycheck stubs in his car, AND I am literally right there telling the bank, "This is a check drawn on our account. He is the intended recipient. I can vouch he is John Doe."

But nope. They won't do it.

But WILL they do?

They will cash the check, with ONLY his ONE ID, IF he opens an account (which costs $50). So he's forced to do that.

So I am like, "What? Wait. You said that the 'Two ID' rule is intended to prevent fraud, but you'll let him open up an account with just ONE form of ID?"

Obviously the bank just wanted to squeeze $50 from this unbanked individual. I don't see how it had anything to do with concerns about fraud. I was very pissed about the situation and my boss spoke with the bank but it's not like they are going to change their policies. All we can do now is warn clients ahead of time of the hoops they need to jump through if they don't have a bank of their own.

I can't imagine how much shit low-income people have to deal with on a daily basis.

Is that $50 that the bank keeps, or a $50 opening deposit that can be withdrawn immediately afterward? That's the case for most banks.

I mean, it's still a stupid policy to claim they are trying to prevent fraud when they are perfectly okay with taking one ID to open an account.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 09, 2020, 08:08:45 AM
But back to the topic, I personally don't see how we can allow any large crowds for at least 1.5 years, until there is widespread distribution of a vaccine.

Now, will some events go on? Maybe?

MLB is trying to roll out an interesting form of play for May/June, which sounds potentially workable (all games in AZ, players/staff essentially quarantined to hotels/game sites, shorter games, lots of doublehitters, no one in stands, not even conferences with catcher/pitcher) but we'll see. I mean, baseball has advantages over sports like basketball, soccer, and especially football that all involve so much physical contact.

Do you really feel like that will be implemented for that long of a timespan? It feels to me like the quarantine measures we have now are fraying at the edges for a few weeks of it. I guess if you mean large enough for tens of thousands, if the government truly banned things it could work. If we're talking in the hundreds, I sincerely doubt that will happen.

Well, ultimately you do what the experts advise, but yeah I acknowledge you have to consider peoples' "breaking points" since compliance is essentially voluntary.

But yeah I just don't see any way you can have big crowds allowed, so big concerts, NASCAR, NFL, soccer, even big political rallies, all of it. I just don't see how you allow it without restarting the whole spiral.

Now can some of this go on without crowds? Maybe!

I honestly think that is the best we can hope for this summer, is that we can have some cookouts in our back yards with small groups of friends. I mean, I would take that in a heart beat! Wouldn't you?

Big question to me is how do schools reopen in August/Sept? I mean, you can only do so much "social distancing" when you pack all these kids in a building, and especially the "littles" are going to struggle with whatever mitigation measures authorities would try to roll out.

Thankfully, we have 4 months to figure this out. But you can't just start schools on a dime. They are going to have to know by June or so what is feasible.

I would certainly be fine with small groups - I very rarely go to gatherings of anything larger than, say, 50 people. And again, if the government shuts down large gatherings by decree then it probably won't happen, but yea, I dunno. I think people are going to push back a lot more as this continues.

I agree - schools are the biggest question. They're certainly top 2 if not the top in causing the most disruption in people's lives by not being in session. As long as schools are closed and relying on parents for childcare, you'll have a huge swath of the workforce that's impacted even if everything was reopened immediately. If you have kids at school, then you've got as big of a problem as concerts in my completely uneducated opinion.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Spud on April 09, 2020, 10:11:25 AM
I think people are going to push back a lot more as this continues.

Weirdly, the more people push back, the longer this goes on for, the longer the virus continues to spread. Remember, we don't have a vaccine at the moment and probably won't do until some time in 2021. People can push back all they want, but it will just result in the death toll being higher and the government cracking down harder. It might seem counter-intuitive, but the more you can sacrifice your personal freedom in the short term, the quicker we can return to something approaching normal. Short term pain for long term gain. The numbers coming out of Italy now really do suggest that if you adhere t the rules, things start to improve quite quickly.

On a very dark and morbid note, I think what a lot of the COVIDiots out there need, is for someone they know who isn't high risk (friend, family, neighbour, colleague) to die of COVID. They need a hard reality check. It's this overwhelming attitude of being untouchable and that it happens to people on the news and not to them, that keeps them flouting the rules.

If you were to add up the death toll of all the terrorist attacks that have occurred in the US and Europe, and all the school shottings in the US, (9/11, 7/7, Paris attacks, people being run over with trucks) this pandemic is quickly surpassing that total every few days in US alone, and the thing doing the killing, is arguably far harder to stop than terrorists or disgruntled/mentally ill students with guns, yet many people seem to be oblivious as if it's no big deal.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 09, 2020, 10:23:56 AM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 09, 2020, 10:32:43 AM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Is contactless pay not a thing in the US?
It's everywhere here, to the point that people get really irritated when there's no tap.

I'm rarely in the US, but I was there 4 years ago when chip cards were ubiquitous here in Canada and absolutely nowhere that I went in the US had them, it was still swipe everywhere.

Can anyone explain this to me?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: SomedayStache on April 09, 2020, 10:36:01 AM
I've stuck with this job primarily because of the stability it provides. I've abandoned dreams and hopes of turning something I love into a job that pays enough, because nothing I'm interested in doing pays enough to support me

I've made the same safe, stable choice to let go of my grand desires and stay with something that pays the bills. The last few years have been a mental rollercoaster as I've considered jumping ship and throwing caution to the wind. Now, today, as I sit in my house working from home as my safe/stable job has requested I am far more at peace with my decision to stay put.

I haven't saved any money due to Pandemic changes of habit as we were already living exceptionally frugal and there was not a lot to change. In fact, we've spent more due to not being able to comparison shop. I'm probably going to have to purchase another computer as well because none of our laptops have cameras and the 3 kids now have video classes in elementary school (that was a plot twist I never expected).

Our HSA balance was up to >$25k in February and last i checked it had lost almost 1/3.  Eek. But still enough to cover our OOP max, though I will say a HDHP and invested HSA are a pretty bad combination in a global pandemic. HOWEVER, I still have insurance and a job so I'm certainly not complaining. Can the US please get it's sh*t together and provide some sort of universal coverage NOT tied to full-time employment?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 09, 2020, 10:43:19 AM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Is contactless pay not a thing in the US?
It's everywhere here, to the point that people get really irritated when there's no tap.

I'm rarely in the US, but I was there 4 years ago when chip cards were ubiquitous here in Canada and absolutely nowhere that I went in the US had them, it was still swipe everywhere.

Can anyone explain this to me?

Explanation: The US is not nearly as much of a leader in technology as it thinks it is.

We do now have chips in our cards, but they still have the stripe. Making the safety features of the chip... not all that useful.

Contactless exists here, but it's definitely not ubiquitous at all. Of all the credit and debit cards I have, not a single one has contactless payment enabled. The next time I'm due to get a new/updated card is August 2020. We'll see if that one has it.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ctuser1 on April 09, 2020, 10:45:18 AM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Is contactless pay not a thing in the US?
It's everywhere here, to the point that people get really irritated when there's no tap.

I'm rarely in the US, but I was there 4 years ago when chip cards were ubiquitous here in Canada and absolutely nowhere that I went in the US had them, it was still swipe everywhere.

Can anyone explain this to me?

The cost of moving to a new technology is higher, due to sheer size. Consider number of terminals to upgrade, new cards to issue etc. Cost per card or terminal would be lower, but total cost to move would be higher.

The incentive to move is lower. Fraud can be managed more effectively at the scale that US has. US  is one of the less internationally integrated of the developed economies (due to sheer size, again). So pulling off an international CC heist would - I imagine - be rather more difficult.

Those are my gut-feel guesstimates. I have not actually done a project to pull fraud data and terminal/cc replacement costs to prove it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 09, 2020, 11:33:48 AM
I think people are going to push back a lot more as this continues.

Weirdly, the more people push back, the longer this goes on for, the longer the virus continues to spread. Remember, we don't have a vaccine at the moment and probably won't do until some time in 2021. People can push back all they want, but it will just result in the death toll being higher and the government cracking down harder. It might seem counter-intuitive, but the more you can sacrifice your personal freedom in the short term, the quicker we can return to something approaching normal. Short term pain for long term gain. The numbers coming out of Italy now really do suggest that if you adhere t the rules, things start to improve quite quickly.

On a very dark and morbid note, I think what a lot of the COVIDiots out there need, is for someone they know who isn't high risk (friend, family, neighbour, colleague) to die of COVID. They need a hard reality check. It's this overwhelming attitude of being untouchable and that it happens to people on the news and not to them, that keeps them flouting the rules.

If you were to add up the death toll of all the terrorist attacks that have occurred in the US and Europe, and all the school shottings in the US, (9/11, 7/7, Paris attacks, people being run over with trucks) this pandemic is quickly surpassing that total every few days in US alone, and the thing doing the killing, is arguably far harder to stop than terrorists or disgruntled/mentally ill students with guns, yet many people seem to be oblivious as if it's no big deal.

I'm not necessarily arguing against you, especially if we're talking about true large gatherings of say 2-300 or more. I will say that it's not idiotic to feel frustrated and depending on how long a true quarantine lasted - i.e. no going to work, no schools for kids, no small gatherings of friends - to push back against it. It's just human nature. People are wired to be communal, and this goes full force against something fundamental about human beings. So, it depends on what we're talking about. No large gatherings for a year or more - tough and grating but doable. The stay-at-home level quarantine we're at now for significant periods of time - I'm not going to call people idiots for pushing back on it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: sherr on April 09, 2020, 11:34:18 AM
The cost of moving to a new technology is higher, due to sheer size. Consider number of terminals to upgrade, new cards to issue etc. Cost per card or terminal would be lower, but total cost to move would be higher.

I've heard this argument before, but I'm not actually convinced it makes much sense. Total costs are irrelevant, what matters is cost per capita or cost per revenue dollar. Which should be about the same here as it is everywhere else.

I think it more boils down to two things:

1) I've heard that in the CC-stripe days the US had relatively low per-capita rates of CC fraud, so the impetus to move would be lower here than other places.
2) I've heard that the merchant contracts with the CC companies are radically different here than they are other places, where in the US the CC company bears the responsibility for fraud, not the merchant.

And in that environment it's hard to get the merchants to upgrade their terminals when it doesn't benefit them directly. And we only just managed to switch to chip-and-sign, so it would be doubly hard to get people to upgrade again for contactless.

My credit cards do all have the contactless chip, but a lot of terminals still don't support it. And yes they do all still have the magnetic stripe.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: DadJokes on April 09, 2020, 11:37:12 AM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Is contactless pay not a thing in the US?
It's everywhere here, to the point that people get really irritated when there's no tap.

I'm rarely in the US, but I was there 4 years ago when chip cards were ubiquitous here in Canada and absolutely nowhere that I went in the US had them, it was still swipe everywhere.

Can anyone explain this to me?

We use chip readers most places I go, but I still have to tap the screen to confirm the amount (and occasionally for my receipt option). It's an annoyance even when there isn't a contagion sitting on surfaces. Of course I am confirming the amount; that's why I decided to put my card in.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIPurpose on April 09, 2020, 11:58:34 AM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Is contactless pay not a thing in the US?
It's everywhere here, to the point that people get really irritated when there's no tap.

I'm rarely in the US, but I was there 4 years ago when chip cards were ubiquitous here in Canada and absolutely nowhere that I went in the US had them, it was still swipe everywhere.

Can anyone explain this to me?

We use chip readers most places I go, but I still have to tap the screen to confirm the amount (and occasionally for my receipt option). It's an annoyance even when there isn't a contagion sitting on surfaces. Of course I am confirming the amount; that's why I decided to put my card in.

Most of the big stores have a tap pay ability, but none of my cards have the feature. In fact, one of my credit cards still doesn't have a chip insert. I'm not holding out that any of my credit cards will actually update to include the feature when they renew.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ctuser1 on April 09, 2020, 12:20:48 PM
The cost of moving to a new technology is higher, due to sheer size. Consider number of terminals to upgrade, new cards to issue etc. Cost per card or terminal would be lower, but total cost to move would be higher.

I've heard this argument before, but I'm not actually convinced it makes much sense. Total costs are irrelevant, what matters is cost per capita or cost per revenue dollar. Which should be about the same here as it is everywhere else.

I think it more boils down to two things:

1) I've heard that in the CC-stripe days the US had relatively low per-capita rates of CC fraud, so the impetus to move would be lower here than other places.
2) I've heard that the merchant contracts with the CC companies are radically different here than they are other places, where in the US the CC company bears the responsibility for fraud, not the merchant.

And in that environment it's hard to get the merchants to upgrade their terminals when it doesn't benefit them directly. And we only just managed to switch to chip-and-sign, so it would be doubly hard to get people to upgrade again for contactless.

My credit cards do all have the contactless chip, but a lot of terminals still don't support it. And yes they do all still have the magnetic stripe.

Total costs are irrelevant, what matters is cost per capita or cost per revenue dollar. Which should be about the same here as it is everywhere else.

If you try to think how projects or initiatives are funded and launched in large organizations then it might make more sense.

A $1M project will likely be signed off by a lowly Director in a bank. A $1B project will likely require a CEO's signature.

Result? A bunch of $1m projects will get kicked off on a whim, while very few $1B projects will even be attempted.

This whole thing appears more perverse if you consider that a BofA or a Wells would have much lower per-revenue-dollar cost compared to a TD or a CIBC due to the sheer advantage of size and scale. Unfortunately, however, that's how large organizations operate sometimes.

I'm speaking from personal experience here.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Channel-Z on April 09, 2020, 02:55:53 PM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Is contactless pay not a thing in the US?
It's everywhere here, to the point that people get really irritated when there's no tap.

I'm rarely in the US, but I was there 4 years ago when chip cards were ubiquitous here in Canada and absolutely nowhere that I went in the US had them, it was still swipe everywhere.

Can anyone explain this to me?

Explanation: The US is not nearly as much of a leader in technology as it thinks it is.

We do now have chips in our cards, but they still have the stripe. Making the safety features of the chip... not all that useful.

Contactless exists here, but it's definitely not ubiquitous at all. Of all the credit and debit cards I have, not a single one has contactless payment enabled. The next time I'm due to get a new/updated card is August 2020. We'll see if that one has it.

I received a new card last month, and it is not contact-less. But even if it were, the only places I know I can use a tap-payment like that are Starbucks and McDonald's. In fact we have a Starbucks inside a Target store. The SBUX accepts mobile payments, and the Target registers do not.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on April 09, 2020, 03:26:44 PM
The US is way behind in banking. Card use and technology. This has been the case for at least a decade. The banks in this country just did not want to spend the money, and people here who do not travel abroad know no different.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on April 09, 2020, 03:44:07 PM
The US standing in the world order will be diminished.

The US Government response to Hurricane Katrina was met with dismay in many parts of the developed world. I travel a fair bit, and a consistent refrain was "How could this happen in America?" - referring to the disaster response. The Covid 19 federal response has been met with even more international dismay. The US and the rest of the world is looking at Germany, South Korea - and others - but not the US, for leadership, and a plan for how to get out of this mess.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Schaefer Light on April 09, 2020, 04:27:01 PM
I'm not really sure what the US federal government was supposed to do differently.  They don't have the power to shut down businesses.  They don't manage the hospitals.  They actually made a smart move in shutting down travel from China pretty early in the game.  I guess they could have forced businesses to start producing masks and ventilators sooner than they did.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: js82 on April 09, 2020, 04:35:55 PM
I'm not really sure what the US federal government was supposed to do differently.  They don't have the power to shut down businesses.  They don't manage the hospitals.  They actually made a smart move in shutting down travel from China pretty early in the game.  I guess they could have forced businesses to start producing masks and ventilators sooner than they did.

In short, the federal government needs to behave more like (most of) the state governments - less self-congratulating, fewer statements detached from reality, and more of a no-nonsense "this is where things are, and here's what we're doing about it" attitude.  And above all else, leaders need to show that they truly grasp the situation.

Statements about things like "reopening by Easter" or wanting to see sports stadiums full of fans sooner rather than later just make it painfully obvious that we have leadership detached from the reality of the situation.  Those statements would almost be funny, if they weren't dangerous.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on April 09, 2020, 05:00:14 PM
From abroad, our Federal Government response is thought of as a joke to be brutally honest.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: The Fake Cheap on April 09, 2020, 05:23:39 PM
The US is way behind in banking. Card use and technology. This has been the case for at least a decade. The banks in this country just did not want to spend the money, and people here who do not travel abroad know no different.

Yes, at least in terms with Canada.  I went to the US almost yearly for shopping from about 2000-2010.  From about 2000 on, I was able to use debit for a very large % of my purchases in Canada.  I remember on one of these trips probably about 2005, someone used a personal cheque at a major retailer in front of me in the checkout line, I was shocked!  I was even more shocked when the cashier accepted it without blinking an eye!  Everyplace in Canada that I knew of stopped accepting personal cheques at some point in the late 1990s.

I now use tap for any purchase I can on my cc, which has been pretty widely accepted here for the last 3 years or so. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on April 09, 2020, 05:38:14 PM
I'm not really sure what the US federal government was supposed to do differently.  They don't have the power to shut down businesses.  They don't manage the hospitals.  They actually made a smart move in shutting down travel from China pretty early in the game.  I guess they could have forced businesses to start producing masks and ventilators sooner than they did.

The big mistakes I think the federal government made:

1) Not restocking the national stockpile after the H1N1 flu.
2) Letting coronavirus testing get locked up by mess ups at the CDC (which was both blocking the WHO developed test AND blocking public and academic labs from running their own testing) rather than pushing every competent facility to start rolling out lab developed tests right away.
2B) They should have been doing a lot more contact tracing from confirmed cases, but this would only have been possible with more testing.
3) Ramp up mask production in early February. Ventilators are expensive to make and have long lead times. With 4-6 weeks and tens of millions (not billions) of dollars we'd be swimming in surgical masks right now. (Taiwan did exactly this.)
4) Refusing to recommend regular americans wear masks until a few days ago.

There are other bigger changes that I think they had enough information to make the call on (like shutting down international travel more generally, we now know the outbreak in NYC mostly came from Europe, not China directly), but other country's didn't make that call either and had access to the same information.

Items #1-4 many other countries DID do and are in much better situations than we are today as a result.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIPurpose on April 09, 2020, 05:53:09 PM
I'm not really sure what the US federal government was supposed to do differently.  They don't have the power to shut down businesses.  They don't manage the hospitals.  They actually made a smart move in shutting down travel from China pretty early in the game.  I guess they could have forced businesses to start producing masks and ventilators sooner than they did.

The big mistakes I think the federal government made:

1) Not restocking the national stockpile after the H1N1 flu.
2) Letting coronavirus testing get locked up by mess ups at the CDC (which was both blocking the WHO developed test AND blocking public and academic labs from running their own testing) rather than pushing every competent facility to start rolling out lab developed tests right away.
2B) They should have been doing a lot more contact tracing from confirmed cases, but this would only have been possible with more testing.
3) Ramp up mask production in early February. Ventilators are expensive to make and have long lead times. With 4-6 weeks and tens of millions (not billions) of dollars we'd be swimming in surgical masks right now. (Taiwan did exactly this.)
4) Refusing to recommend regular americans wear masks until a few days ago.

There are other bigger changes that I think they had enough information to make the call on (like shutting down international travel more generally, we now know the outbreak in NYC mostly came from Europe, not China directly), but other country's didn't make that call either and had access to the same information.

Items #1-4 many other countries DID do and are in much better situations than we are today as a result.

The federal government could have also:

5. Not reduced the budget of the CDC
6. Not get rid of the pandemic response team
7. Make bulk purchases of masks and other materials and then distribute them based on need to the states (instead Trump wanted to play a stupid money making game)
8. Deploy the military to work as emergency personnel in the hardest hit locations.

I think we can keep going with this list. In fact, Trump has been uniquely bad at responding to this pandemic.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on April 09, 2020, 10:20:14 PM
The US is way behind in banking. Card use and technology. This has been the case for at least a decade. The banks in this country just did not want to spend the money, and people here who do not travel abroad know no different.

Yes, at least in terms with Canada.  I went to the US almost yearly for shopping from about 2000-2010.  From about 2000 on, I was able to use debit for a very large % of my purchases in Canada.  I remember on one of these trips probably about 2005, someone used a personal cheque at a major retailer in front of me in the checkout line, I was shocked!  I was even more shocked when the cashier accepted it without blinking an eye!  Everyplace in Canada that I knew of stopped accepting personal cheques at some point in the late 1990s.

I now use tap for any purchase I can on my cc, which has been pretty widely accepted here for the last 3 years or so.

And I had no trouble using my Canadian credit card in New Zealand (mostly tap, some charges were over my limit and I had to swipe), and taking cash out of ATMs with CIRRUS. 

My DD even pays for little things (like a coffee) with tap, instead of cash.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 09, 2020, 11:51:44 PM
The US is way behind in banking. Card use and technology. This has been the case for at least a decade. The banks in this country just did not want to spend the money, and people here who do not travel abroad know no different.

Yes, at least in terms with Canada.  I went to the US almost yearly for shopping from about 2000-2010.  From about 2000 on, I was able to use debit for a very large % of my purchases in Canada.  I remember on one of these trips probably about 2005, someone used a personal cheque at a major retailer in front of me in the checkout line, I was shocked!  I was even more shocked when the cashier accepted it without blinking an eye!  Everyplace in Canada that I knew of stopped accepting personal cheques at some point in the late 1990s.

I now use tap for any purchase I can on my cc, which has been pretty widely accepted here for the last 3 years or so.

And I had no trouble using my Canadian credit card in New Zealand (mostly tap, some charges were over my limit and I had to swipe), and taking cash out of ATMs with CIRRUS. 

My DD even pays for little things (like a coffee) with tap, instead of cash.

I actually had to Google how the current cash bills looked about two years ago when I sold my sofa. Here in Sweden, there are a lot of places that don’t accept cash at all. Even the local athletic club in my small village accepts cards or mobilepayments. I pay everything with a card or with a mobile payment and that is how most of the people do it. The tap has become a norm here during the last years so much that there is a note on the machine if it has not the tap function. But above a certain limit you have to use the pin. I think they have upped the limit to 40 USD now during the coronacrisis.

Order people, in their 80-90ies still use some cash.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 10, 2020, 12:20:52 AM
The US is way behind in banking. Card use and technology. This has been the case for at least a decade. The banks in this country just did not want to spend the money, and people here who do not travel abroad know no different.

Yes, at least in terms with Canada.  I went to the US almost yearly for shopping from about 2000-2010.  From about 2000 on, I was able to use debit for a very large % of my purchases in Canada.  I remember on one of these trips probably about 2005, someone used a personal cheque at a major retailer in front of me in the checkout line, I was shocked!  I was even more shocked when the cashier accepted it without blinking an eye!  Everyplace in Canada that I knew of stopped accepting personal cheques at some point in the late 1990s.

I now use tap for any purchase I can on my cc, which has been pretty widely accepted here for the last 3 years or so.

And I had no trouble using my Canadian credit card in New Zealand (mostly tap, some charges were over my limit and I had to swipe), and taking cash out of ATMs with CIRRUS. 

My DD even pays for little things (like a coffee) with tap, instead of cash.

I actually had to Google how the current cash bills looked about two years ago when I sold my sofa. Here in Sweden, there are a lot of places that don’t accept cash at all. Even the local athletic club in my small village accepts cards or mobilepayments. I pay everything with a card or with a mobile payment and that is how most of the people do it. The tap has become a norm here during the last years so much that there is a note on the machine if it has not the tap function. But above a certain limit you have to use the pin. I think they have upped the limit to 40 USD now during the coronacrisis.

Order people, in their 80-90ies still use some cash.

I never use cash. Bills are paid online, and I'll use a card for purchases. Bigger places have paywave (tap) but the smaller one don't because it costs the retailers to provide it. The supermarkets at the moment are not taking cash except in one special lane where the staff have extra protection.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 10, 2020, 02:42:07 AM
I have heard, in relation to another US banking problem, that its about how the US  is organized. In the UK we have a few big national banks. If one does something, that's a big % of UK banking. In the US, it's huge geographically and they have more banks and more non-national banks, so if one does something it's a much smaller % of total banking. So it's harder for one bank to lead the way on something that needs buy-in from someone else because they won't see a return until everyone else adopts it too.

That said, US banking now sounds like UK banking when I was a young child - or even earlier. In the early 1990s people could still pay at tills with cheques but even then it was unusual.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Freedomin5 on April 10, 2020, 04:13:43 AM
We are kind of living a post-COVID life right now in China. There have been no local cases in Shanghai for the past few weeks and we have only had imported cases. Right now, everyone is still wearing masks and the government has stepped up its use of big data to track public health data. Everyone has a health QR code which you have to show to prove that you are healthy before being allowed enter public places.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 10, 2020, 04:20:30 AM
We are kind of living a post-COVID life right now in China. There have been no local cases in Shanghai for the past few weeks and we have only had imported cases. Right now, everyone is still wearing masks and the government has stepped up its use of big data to track public health data. Everyone has a health QR code which you have to show to prove that you are healthy before being allowed enter public places.

The health QR code I don't understand. You could be exposed 2 minutes after getting it. It really means nothing.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 10, 2020, 04:49:51 AM
I'm of the opinion that not much will change, at least in the US, as a result of this. I'm *hoping* the government will pull their heads out of their asses and be more prepared for the next time this happens. But I'm not optimistic.

One thing I really do hope will change is an increase in contactless forms of payment. We were in the UK right when this hit, and were struck by how many people had contactless credit cards. I know Apple Pay is a thing, but I think the credit card technology is going to be where it has to go to make it widespread. Crossing my fingers that when all of my cards renew, they'll be contactless-enabled.

Is contactless pay not a thing in the US?
It's everywhere here, to the point that people get really irritated when there's no tap.

I'm rarely in the US, but I was there 4 years ago when chip cards were ubiquitous here in Canada and absolutely nowhere that I went in the US had them, it was still swipe everywhere.

Can anyone explain this to me?

We use chip readers most places I go, but I still have to tap the screen to confirm the amount (and occasionally for my receipt option). It's an annoyance even when there isn't a contagion sitting on surfaces. Of course I am confirming the amount; that's why I decided to put my card in.

I'm talking about tap, not chip.

I mentioned chip as another example like, 10 years ago chip cards were everywhere in Canada, but then 4 years ago I went to the US and not a single place had chip reader.

We've had tap here in Canada almost everywhere for a few years now. There's usually a limit of $100CAD for tap, but during the crisis, a lot of chains are increasing that purchase limit to avoid contact.

Additionally, before this happened though, several places had already phased out cash. Our national train service had just phased out all cash purchases recently.

I'm just wondering what on earth the difference is between the US and Canada that makes our uptake of banking tech like a decade faster.

However, a PP mentioned number of banks, and that may be a thing? We really don't have a ton of banks here, and the vast majority bank with the "Big 5", who send out new cards with new tech, and then the demand from the public for merchants to accomodate that new tech is enormous.

Seriously, you should see the visible agitation people have here when they can't tap. It's intense. Even if you have a bolded sign that says 'NO TAP', they'll still try tapping a few times, and then get aggravated that it isn't working.

So I'm guessing you guys don't have a lot of places where you can pay contactless with your phones then???

Unless I'm driving, I don't even carry my wallet because I can use my phone as a credit card.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 10, 2020, 05:18:30 AM
Some factions of Evangelical Christianity believe that microchips are the mark of the beast (i.e., the devil). Unfortunately, I spent my teenage years hearing about this due to a parent who had converted to an insane church and took up watching televangelists as a hobby. Given the influence of that cultural background over the US (see the entire GOP), it isn't surprising to me at all that we're more than a decade behind other countries in terms of banking/payment tech.

Some of the larger stores around here have tap pay. I always use it at Costco, for example. I'm just grateful that I can get away with using cards for almost everything, even if I have to insert them in a chip reader. I get annoyed when I have to use cash.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 10, 2020, 06:09:35 AM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Freedomin5 on April 10, 2020, 06:16:39 AM
We are kind of living a post-COVID life right now in China. There have been no local cases in Shanghai for the past few weeks and we have only had imported cases. Right now, everyone is still wearing masks and the government has stepped up its use of big data to track public health data. Everyone has a health QR code which you have to show to prove that you are healthy before being allowed enter public places.

The health QR code I don't understand. You could be exposed 2 minutes after getting it. It really means nothing.

Not if they take your temperature every few hours (every time you enter a public space) and report you if you have a fever. Is it perfect? No. Will this type of monitoring allow the gvmt to identify some of the infected people. Yes.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 10, 2020, 06:21:10 AM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

My understanding is that for whatever reason the fees for the mechant are much less or nonexistent for contactless, and I am sure they do more business because of it because people can make small impulse purchases more easily than if they have to have cash. In fact, I know more than one small business that is 100% cashless and only takes card or contactless. The consumer demand for it is huge.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ctuser1 on April 10, 2020, 06:22:42 AM
There are fees for the cashless - fees that are direct and in your face - and they are typically in the 1% to 2% range.

In comparison, cash usage has costs too. This paper looks at the wider societal costs - https://hbr.org/2014/06/the-hidden-costs-of-cash. How about other types of direct costs to the merchant? cost of time to make a bank run every day? physical cash handling, loss, theft? These are all real costs.

I am too lazy to look up real data driven research right now to compare costs side by side. But, in my anecdotal and personal opinion, there is definitely more value in cashless transactions than the 1 to 2% fees charged. For random, small, one time purchases I'd gladly pay the 2% fee (even if not reimbursed by reward points) for the convenience of cashless transaction. Larger transactions are different, of course!

I think it is better to let the market decide the move. After COVID - I bet more people would hate germ-ridden cash. I'm personally happy to have the marketplace drive that push and drag the unwilling along. Overall, I strongly suspect, it will be a good thing for the entire economy if everyone moved to cashless transactions.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 10, 2020, 06:31:21 AM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

We're not cashless, a lot of places like farmers markets, etc are still pretty cash heavy. We also still have cheques, however, a lot of places without credit card payments will accept e-transfers. That's how I pay my therapist and physio.

Only some businesses are totally cash free.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: kanga1622 on April 10, 2020, 07:46:02 AM
I LOVE being able to tap my phone to pay. So easy and I don’t have to carry anything else around with me. Unfortunately, the vending machines in my workplace that have the tap feature charge an extra $.10 per item unless you use cash.

But my Walmart and grocery store can both be paid with my phone so that is the majority of my transactions. We only use the checkbook for fundraisers and real estate taxes (if you pay by debit/credit they charge a 3% fee).

DH still likes cash because he can see exactly how much he has available. Although I may convert him after this whole situation where he cannot spend any cash.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 10, 2020, 08:03:43 AM
Thanks for all the information feedback on this. I was curious and also interested for my personal payment for things. It sounds like my rationale is still sound, at least in my mind, for paying for things I had been with cash/check to benefit them. I can't imagine paying for something with a check, especially if it's a larger single donation, could balance out as worse for the person receiving it than taking 1-2% for a credit card. Farmer's markets still seems like it's benefiting them, but out of curiosity, I may ask some of them whenever we can finally go back to a farmer's market again.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cadman on April 10, 2020, 09:20:08 AM
Some posters have mentioned they've gone entirely cashless...how do you handle private transactions (garage sales, FB Marketplace, Craigslist?). Both as a buyer and a seller.

What do you put in little Johnny's birthday card? If you drop in for a beer at the local watering hole, do you run your card for a $3 purchase knowing they'll get stuck with the fee? When the envelope gets passed around the office, how do you handle that? Eggs for sale at the local farmhouse? A pickup truck load of firewood?

The local courthouse is happy to take a CC for property tax payments...along with a processing fee + 2% on a 4-figure bill. No thanks. Just write a check and drop it in the mail. Though from what I understand, not many EU countries have mail pickup at the home (as a German friend asked, what are those red flags on the boxes?). I was paying our electric bill by CC for points, but being a publicly owned utility, they now also charge a fee in the interest of overhead, so this got moved to a recurring transfer. One more automated payment I have to keep track of.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Unique User on April 10, 2020, 09:37:42 AM
I'd love to see "tap" credit card payments, we almost never use cash except tips while traveling.  I sincerely hope that all Americans stay more interested in sanitary practices everywhere.  I also hope that being an anti-vaxxer becomes no longer socially acceptable and that Americans return to valuing experts and intellectuals. 

Not to derail, but hi to @Wolfpack Mustachian!  I'm assuming Wolfpack is a reference to NC State.  My daughter is home from state finishing up her freshman year
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 10, 2020, 09:39:13 AM
We're not entirely cashless but spend about £10 a month.

1. Private transactions: Paypal or I can do an instant bank transfer on my bank's phone app. (But Paypal is better for refunds.)
2. Birthday cards: we don't. Might be an issue in the future, I guess, but if it's our child or a future niece/nephew I'd do a bank transfer and if it's someone else's child I wouldn't give them cash anyway (a present or nothing)
3. Beer: yes. My experience with small businesses is that they don't mind (and I don't think it is a 2% fee for contactless over here) because they gain other benefits (e.g. not having to carry change, easier accounting)
4. Envelope: don't work in an office. If I did, I would remember to bring in some cash the next day.
5. Eggs/firewood: not a part of my life, but if it was I might keep some cash in the house specially for egg runs and I would pay for the firewoodnin advance or on delivery by PayPal or bank transfer. Though to be frank, these days they might turn up with a card reader - even chuggers have them!
6. Courthouse: it's the opposite here. You would get charged for a cheque, you might get charged for a credit card, debit or bank transfer would be free. I can't believe it when people on this forum talk about mailing cheques to pay bills. Everything is (100% free) direct debit in our house. I know it will be paid on time automatically and I just glance at my bank statement at my leisure a day or so after it's all supposed to have gone through (all bills paid a few days after payday) to check I don't have to dispute anything. Besides, when paying with cheques, aren't you spending money on stamps and envelopes, ornpetrol and time? Automated payments rocks because I can keep track of them on my own time when it suits me, not somebody else's and have to worry about late fees and remembering when things are due. It's never happened, but if I had a problem I could dispute the charges with my bank online.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on April 10, 2020, 10:15:57 AM
Some posters have mentioned they've gone entirely cashless...how do you handle private transactions (garage sales, FB Marketplace, Craigslist?). Both as a buyer and a seller.

What do you put in little Johnny's birthday card? If you drop in for a beer at the local watering hole, do you run your card for a $3 purchase knowing they'll get stuck with the fee? When the envelope gets passed around the office, how do you handle that? Eggs for sale at the local farmhouse? A pickup truck load of firewood?

The local courthouse is happy to take a CC for property tax payments...along with a processing fee + 2% on a 4-figure bill. No thanks. Just write a check and drop it in the mail. Though from what I understand, not many EU countries have mail pickup at the home (as a German friend asked, what are those red flags on the boxes?). I was paying our electric bill by CC for points, but being a publicly owned utility, they now also charge a fee in the interest of overhead, so this got moved to a recurring transfer. One more automated payment I have to keep track of.
1. Venmo, paypal
2. Gift card, check (not exactly cashless)

When we were in Denmark this summer, parking in Copenhagen was all cashless.  App only.  Annoying at first but really cool once you got the hang of it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: kenner on April 10, 2020, 10:40:36 AM
Some posters have mentioned they've gone entirely cashless...how do you handle private transactions (garage sales, FB Marketplace, Craigslist?). Both as a buyer and a seller.

What do you put in little Johnny's birthday card? If you drop in for a beer at the local watering hole, do you run your card for a $3 purchase knowing they'll get stuck with the fee? When the envelope gets passed around the office, how do you handle that? Eggs for sale at the local farmhouse? A pickup truck load of firewood?

The local courthouse is happy to take a CC for property tax payments...along with a processing fee + 2% on a 4-figure bill. No thanks. Just write a check and drop it in the mail. Though from what I understand, not many EU countries have mail pickup at the home (as a German friend asked, what are those red flags on the boxes?). I was paying our electric bill by CC for points, but being a publicly owned utility, they now also charge a fee in the interest of overhead, so this got moved to a recurring transfer. One more automated payment I have to keep track of.

For the last one, there's a difference between a debit and a CC transaction.  I'm in the US and while my local courthouse, utility company, etc. will absolutely charge a fee for a CC transactions, debit card transactions are handled just the same as mailing a check and have no fees.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 10, 2020, 11:17:14 AM
Some posters have mentioned they've gone entirely cashless...how do you handle private transactions (garage sales, FB Marketplace, Craigslist?). Both as a buyer and a seller.

What do you put in little Johnny's birthday card? If you drop in for a beer at the local watering hole, do you run your card for a $3 purchase knowing they'll get stuck with the fee? When the envelope gets passed around the office, how do you handle that? Eggs for sale at the local farmhouse? A pickup truck load of firewood?

The local courthouse is happy to take a CC for property tax payments...along with a processing fee + 2% on a 4-figure bill. No thanks. Just write a check and drop it in the mail. Though from what I understand, not many EU countries have mail pickup at the home (as a German friend asked, what are those red flags on the boxes?). I was paying our electric bill by CC for points, but being a publicly owned utility, they now also charge a fee in the interest of overhead, so this got moved to a recurring transfer. One more automated payment I have to keep track of.
1. Venmo, paypal
2. Gift card, check (not exactly cashless)

When we were in Denmark this summer, parking in Copenhagen was all cashless.  App only.  Annoying at first but really cool once you got the hang of it.

Oh man, I love the parking apps. I wish Detroit would update theirs to be compatible with the current Android release (it hasn't worked on my phone in more than a year). At least the meters accept cards.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: jinga nation on April 10, 2020, 11:21:14 AM
The US standing in the world order will be has been diminished.

The US Government response to Hurricane Katrina was met with dismay in many parts of the developed world. I travel a fair bit, and a consistent refrain was "How could this happen in America?" - referring to the disaster response. The Covid 19 federal response has been met with even more international dismay. The US and the rest of the world is looking at Germany, South Korea - and others - but not the US, for leadership, and a plan for how to get out of this mess.

FTFY.

African countries shunning USA, Europe, World Bank and embracing China's Belt and Road Initiative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Schaefer Light on April 10, 2020, 12:55:46 PM
The US standing in the world order will be has been diminished.

The US Government response to Hurricane Katrina was met with dismay in many parts of the developed world. I travel a fair bit, and a consistent refrain was "How could this happen in America?" - referring to the disaster response. The Covid 19 federal response has been met with even more international dismay. The US and the rest of the world is looking at Germany, South Korea - and others - but not the US, for leadership, and a plan for how to get out of this mess.

FTFY.

African countries shunning USA, Europe, World Bank and embracing China's Belt and Road Initiative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
They'll come calling the good old US of A the next time they need any military assistance, though.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 10, 2020, 01:25:27 PM
I’m pretty sure that my most recent cc has tapping capabilities, but I’ve never set it up or tried it. I really only use it for online purchases. What is the advantage of tapping?

And my phone keeps telling me I can pay with the phone but I’ve never set that up. I did pay at Starbucks one time through the app but that’s been ages.

We usually use our debit cards and between the two of us we have maybe 10 transactions in a 2 week period. That includes deposits. It’s a lot fewer right now, of course. I usually get $20 back at the grocery store and use that for odds and ends of cash, like at the thrift store, for a couple of weeks, but I’m not doing that now, either.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 10, 2020, 01:36:29 PM
I’m pretty sure that my most recent cc has tapping capabilities, but I’ve never set it up or tried it. I really only use it for online purchases. What is the advantage of tapping?


In the context of this thread, not having to touch a credit card payment terminal that hundreds of other people have recently touched before you. It’s contactless.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: former player on April 10, 2020, 01:49:43 PM
The US standing in the world order will be has been diminished.

The US Government response to Hurricane Katrina was met with dismay in many parts of the developed world. I travel a fair bit, and a consistent refrain was "How could this happen in America?" - referring to the disaster response. The Covid 19 federal response has been met with even more international dismay. The US and the rest of the world is looking at Germany, South Korea - and others - but not the US, for leadership, and a plan for how to get out of this mess.


FTFY.

African countries shunning USA, Europe, World Bank and embracing China's Belt and Road Initiative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
They'll come calling the good old US of A the next time they need any military assistance, though.
Possibly, but given that Trump has spent a significant part of the last 3 years threatening to pull out of NATO and saying we all owe the USA money for Nato, and given his utter cowardice and kowtowing in the face of dictators, I'm not sure any of us think we can rely on y'all providing it any more.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 10, 2020, 01:52:25 PM
Some factions of Evangelical Christianity believe that microchips are the mark of the beast (i.e., the devil). Unfortunately, I spent my teenage years hearing about this due to a parent who had converted to an insane church and took up watching televangelists as a hobby. Given the influence of that cultural background over the US (see the entire GOP), it isn't surprising to me at all that we're more than a decade behind other countries in terms of banking/payment tech.


Is it really necessary to malign 30-40% of the US population here*?

There is another big reason why US currency persists notwithstanding political affiliations : the underground economy. Both in the US and abroad. If you want to buy drugs or your employer insists on paying you under the table, then nothing works quite as well as the greenback.

*(lest you think I’m favoring one US political faction over the other, I detest strongly dislike both and I don’t vote.)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ketchup on April 10, 2020, 02:00:33 PM
American cash-hating millennial checking in.  I use Apple Pay (contactless) on my phone whenever possible.  Plenty of stores don't take it though.  Home Depot and Walmart come to mind.  95% of gas stations don't either.  Most don't even take chip cards.  I'm not sure why gas pumps in particular seem so behind.  Especially now, I'm more aware of that.

I can only think of two cash transactions I've made so far this year.  One was a frozen raw dog food bulk buy (the person coordinating it prefers cash to checks or PayPal), and the other was pot (pot shops take only cash because rules are tricky).  Girlfriend uses cash for parking at dog shows and nothing else.  Cash on the spending side always feels so shady and/or old-timey.  And remembering how much I have on me ($71 leftover from my last month-ago cash transaction), or using a debit card at the grocery store to get cashback is nearly as annoying as physically going to an ATM.

Girlfriend is self-employed and maybe 5% of her income is in cash.  Cash in a pain in the ass there too.  Not losing the fees to CC/PayPal is nice, but the record-keeping is sloppier and less automatic, and it needs to be kept track of and deposited physically at a bank.  Checks can at least be deposited on her phone.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: GuitarStv on April 10, 2020, 02:04:45 PM
Some factions of Evangelical Christianity believe that microchips are the mark of the beast (i.e., the devil). Unfortunately, I spent my teenage years hearing about this due to a parent who had converted to an insane church and took up watching televangelists as a hobby. Given the influence of that cultural background over the US (see the entire GOP), it isn't surprising to me at all that we're more than a decade behind other countries in terms of banking/payment tech.


Is it really necessary to malign 30-40% of the US population here*?

There is another big reason why US currency persists notwithstanding political affiliations : the underground economy. Both in the US and abroad. If you want to buy drugs or your employer insists on paying you under the table, then nothing works quite as well as the greenback.

*(lest you think I’m favoring one US political faction over the other, I detest strongly dislike both and I don’t vote.)

Interesting.  You believe that pointing to strong evangelical Christian ties with the GOP is an insult?

I don't disagree, but don't often heard the sentiment voiced quite like that.  What percentage of US population do you think is maligned by that comment?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 10, 2020, 02:17:28 PM
I’m pretty sure that my most recent cc has tapping capabilities, but I’ve never set it up or tried it. I really only use it for online purchases. What is the advantage of tapping?


In the context of this thread, not having to touch a credit card payment terminal that hundreds of other people have recently touched before you. It’s contactless.

At this point, I’ve been to the store 3 times in the past month. I’ve worn gloves every time and honestly - by the time I get to the register, I’ve touched plenty of other things.

I did use hand sanitizer after ungloving and I did disinfect my card.

But in a general way I don’t feel that tapping my card would add a lot of value to my life. ;-)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 10, 2020, 02:23:11 PM
I’m pretty sure that my most recent cc has tapping capabilities, but I’ve never set it up or tried it. I really only use it for online purchases. What is the advantage of tapping?


In the context of this thread, not having to touch a credit card payment terminal that hundreds of other people have recently touched before you. It’s contactless.

At this point, I’ve been to the store 3 times in the past month. I’ve worn gloves every time and honestly - by the time I get to the register, I’ve touched plenty of other things.

I did use hand sanitizer after ungloving and I did disinfect my card.

But in a general way I don’t feel that tapping my card would add a lot of value to my life. ;-)

Okey-dokey.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 10, 2020, 02:30:58 PM
I've been thinking about the in-person transactions we make most frequently and why I love contactless so much, and actually the main way we use contactless is on public transport. All Tube stations and buses in London are contactless so you just tap your card and you've paid for your journey. No queue, no ticket to hang onto. Buses don't take cash any more which saves soooooo much time getting on when people can't try to pay their fare in farthings or "forget" to have enough money. If you don't have contactless on the Tube, you can queue up at a machine in the station, buy an Oyster card, and top it up with a card or cash, but then you have to keep an eye on how much money is on it and queue to top it up all the time. It's only for tourists now. That's the real value of contactless for me - it's removed an entire category of life admin from my life which I used to have to interact with on a frequent basis.

But even in other contexts I have appreciated how quick it is. Literally two seconds. It makes a difference when you're doing a quick transaction in a long queue. Sometimes I have gone so long only doing contactless I have been on the verge of forgetting my pin! (I only use an ATM every few months.)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 10, 2020, 02:47:00 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 10, 2020, 02:48:46 PM
I've been thinking about the in-person transactions we make most frequently and why I love contactless so much, and actually the main way we use contactless is on public transport. All Tube stations and buses in London are contactless so you just tap your card and you've paid for your journey. No queue, no ticket to hang onto. Buses don't take cash any more which saves soooooo much time getting on when people can't try to pay their fare in farthings or "forget" to have enough money. If you don't have contactless on the Tube, you can queue up at a machine in the station, buy an Oyster card, and top it up with a card or cash, but then you have to keep an eye on how much money is on it and queue to top it up all the time. It's only for tourists now. That's the real value of contactless for me - it's removed an entire category of life admin from my life which I used to have to interact with on a frequent basis.

But even in other contexts I have appreciated how quick it is. Literally two seconds. It makes a difference when you're doing a quick transaction in a long queue. Sometimes I have gone so long only doing contactless I have been on the verge of forgetting my pin! (I only use an ATM every few months.)

Yes indeed. My trip to London in early March right as things were ramping up was what made me want contactless so badly. It was really cool to see Londoners using it in so many different ways.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 10, 2020, 02:51:01 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: js82 on April 10, 2020, 03:11:01 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

At minimum, this crisis is a powerful illustration of how public health problems are PUBLIC problems that can hurt all of us.  The flu may not be as lethal as Covid-19 on a per-capita basis, but it's still absurd that people come into work sick because their company doesn't have a good sick leave policy and/or a culture where it's acceptable for people to stay home while they're contagious.  Or how in many cases, under-insuring our citizens is probably costing everyone more in the long run due to complications from unidentified/untreated medical conditions.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: dividendman on April 10, 2020, 03:31:29 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

I'd like to believe that too.  Unfortunately all of US history shows that American culture is more short sighted than many of the old-world cultures.

We can see clear improvement in the air quality.
We can see the need for individuals to be financially prudent.
We can see clear problems in labor equity.
We can see clear problems in the health system.
We can see clear problems with nepotism and government incompetence.
We can see clear advantages to listening to the experts.

What I think will happen is in 6 months when the strict quarantines are lifted is that people will forget about all of the above. Politicians and policy makers won't look to how we can reduce pollution overall with less economic impact, or even study how the environmental improvements from a brief economic pause helps us. People won't save more and will blow all of their money. The richest folks will get richer because we socialize business failures but privatize the gains. Anti-vaxxers will refuse the coronavirus vaccine if and when one becomes available leading to more outbreaks later - I don't think we could eradicate smallpox today. And ain't nobody puttin' no commie health care up in here.

Sigh.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 10, 2020, 04:07:23 PM
I've been thinking about the in-person transactions we make most frequently and why I love contactless so much, and actually the main way we use contactless is on public transport. All Tube stations and buses in London are contactless so you just tap your card and you've paid for your journey. No queue, no ticket to hang onto. Buses don't take cash any more which saves soooooo much time getting on when people can't try to pay their fare in farthings or "forget" to have enough money. If you don't have contactless on the Tube, you can queue up at a machine in the station, buy an Oyster card, and top it up with a card or cash, but then you have to keep an eye on how much money is on it and queue to top it up all the time. It's only for tourists now. That's the real value of contactless for me - it's removed an entire category of life admin from my life which I used to have to interact with on a frequent basis.

But even in other contexts I have appreciated how quick it is. Literally two seconds. It makes a difference when you're doing a quick transaction in a long queue. Sometimes I have gone so long only doing contactless I have been on the verge of forgetting my pin! (I only use an ATM every few months.)

I think it really makes a difference that you live in a big city, and I don’t!

I don’t stand in long lines.  It wouldn’t really save me any time to tap instead of pin. The busses aren’t currently running here, but it doesn’t slow anybody up when I put my change into the bus paying thing, especially since I’m often the only person riding the bus.

But I also only use my debit card a couple of times/week and don’t need to save those 5 seconds.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on April 10, 2020, 04:17:55 PM
I think it is making me more motivated to FIRE.  Some have posited that this situation will make FIRE less popular.  Setting aside for the moment where the market might settle our and what that will do to FIRE plans, I think that in our case, it will make us more aggressive about getting out of the workforce, not more hesitant to do so.

While we are worried and anxious and stir-crazy, being home and together all day has been lovely.  A version of this life where we can go on walks and hit up museums and travel and explore and have a picnic?  It's always sounded lovely, but now I feel like we've experienced the together-all-day aspects of it, as well as the we-have-all-the-time-we-need aspects.

DH is currently working in the office one day a week, and from home the rest of the time.  I think it's going to be difficult for him to go back to an everyday office schedule. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 10, 2020, 04:37:30 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

I'd like to believe that too.  Unfortunately all of US history shows that American culture is more short sighted than many of the old-world cultures.

We can see clear improvement in the air quality.
We can see the need for individuals to be financially prudent.
We can see clear problems in labor equity.
We can see clear problems in the health system.
We can see clear problems with nepotism and government incompetence.
We can see clear advantages to listening to the experts.

What I think will happen is in 6 months when the strict quarantines are lifted is that people will forget about all of the above. Politicians and policy makers won't look to how we can reduce pollution overall with less economic impact, or even study how the environmental improvements from a brief economic pause helps us. People won't save more and will blow all of their money. The richest folks will get richer because we socialize business failures but privatize the gains. Anti-vaxxers will refuse the coronavirus vaccine if and when one becomes available leading to more outbreaks later - I don't think we could eradicate smallpox today. And ain't nobody puttin' no commie health care up in here.

Sigh.

Agreed.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 10, 2020, 05:41:43 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 10, 2020, 05:51:29 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 10, 2020, 09:44:25 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?

The same way you you organize anything: by talking. Most of the current US unions don’t seem terribly interested in organizing and labor busting seems to be a well oiled machine. Still, I think events of the past few weeks can safely put lie to the myth that companies will bend over backwards to keep their staff employed. Nope, at the first sign of adversity they will lay people off as quickly as they can. So from a marketing perspective I do think that unions have a pretty good story to tell. I also think that given the large number of foreign born and raised Americans that there is a little less of the bootstrap idea that an individual has as good of an opportunity to negotiate with management as a union does.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 10, 2020, 11:51:06 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?

The same way you you organize anything: by talking. Most of the current US unions don’t seem terribly interested in organizing and labor busting seems to be a well oiled machine. Still, I think events of the past few weeks can safely put lie to the myth that companies will bend over backwards to keep their staff employed. Nope, at the first sign of adversity they will lay people off as quickly as they can. So from a marketing perspective I do think that unions have a pretty good story to tell. I also think that given the large number of foreign born and raised Americans that there is a little less of the bootstrap idea that an individual has as good of an opportunity to negotiate with management as a union does.

Why are people surprised by this?? You're only a thing of use to an employer. Stop being of use and you will be replaced. And that works both ways, btw. If they're not working for you, don't work for them.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 11, 2020, 02:06:22 AM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

The fees are included in the price for the purchase as for cash. You are not allowed to take out a separate fee for use of cards. It costs to make cash deposits and there was a fee for checks already 20 years when I worked in retail. Cash has also the cost of counting, making deposits and bank costs to handling deposit. Not to talk about the cost of robberies and security costs related to cash. That is a big driver to a cashless society.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 11, 2020, 02:30:28 AM
Some posters have mentioned they've gone entirely cashless...how do you handle private transactions (garage sales, FB Marketplace, Craigslist?). Both as a buyer and a seller.

What do you put in little Johnny's birthday card? If you drop in for a beer at the local watering hole, do you run your card for a $3 purchase knowing they'll get stuck with the fee? When the envelope gets passed around the office, how do you handle that? Eggs for sale at the local farmhouse? A pickup truck load of firewood?

The local courthouse is happy to take a CC for property tax payments...along with a processing fee + 2% on a 4-figure bill. No thanks. Just write a check and drop it in the mail. Though from what I understand, not many EU countries have mail pickup at the home (as a German friend asked, what are those red flags on the boxes?). I was paying our electric bill by CC for points, but being a publicly owned utility, they now also charge a fee in the interest of overhead, so this got moved to a recurring transfer. One more automated payment I have to keep track of.

Most of the people have Swish, the electronic payment option that is connected to your cellphone number. I would say that about 90 % of the transactions are made through it. If I sell something and someone gives me cash, I accept it but I probably would not bother to buy anything if they would not offer the ability to pay electronically.

Farmers markets and other professional vendors either offer pay through Swish or through cards. There is a thing for taking card payment for smaller businesses because if you make money over a certain threshold you have to have a cash register, which I guess is the deal for farmers markets and other kinds of markets.

The birthday card - I only have a niece and I have opened an account were I deposit and invest the money. In the bar I pay with a card. Many don't even accept cash. Money envelopes don't exist anymore. It is an email with a telephone number where you can Swish the money.  I have never bought eggs from a farm or firewood but I guess that they would have swish. For the firewood purchase I would probably make sure that I knew how he/she would like to have the payment. Property taxes are dealt with in the tax return so if you need to pay for it, you can make a direct deposit to you specifik tax account.

It is not like you can't take out cash from an ATM for use but most of the people don't find it necessary anymore because there are better options. Also the ATMs are getting less and less common when people are turning away from cash.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 11, 2020, 06:35:39 AM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 11, 2020, 06:47:32 AM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?

The same way you you organize anything: by talking. Most of the current US unions don’t seem terribly interested in organizing and labor busting seems to be a well oiled machine. Still, I think events of the past few weeks can safely put lie to the myth that companies will bend over backwards to keep their staff employed. Nope, at the first sign of adversity they will lay people off as quickly as they can. So from a marketing perspective I do think that unions have a pretty good story to tell. I also think that given the large number of foreign born and raised Americans that there is a little less of the bootstrap idea that an individual has as good of an opportunity to negotiate with management as a union does.

Problem is, a very large chunk of the people who will need to be convinced by this are Trump supporters.

They have been taught to think everything is Great(tm) and that talk like that is socialism.

I don’t think the story will sell well to them.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on April 11, 2020, 06:55:46 AM

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?

Oh, you mean like one tap for kindle books on Amazon?  I've had that for years.  ;-)

More generally, societies did not always run just on cash.  Lots ran on barter, we are mostly past that.

Agricultural communities and the general store, each family had an account that was paid when payment for the cash crop came in.  Farmers and their families were not historically crazy spenders. 

The jar/envelope system has been around for a long time - you get that chunk of cash from your paycheque, you don't spend it, you put the rent/mortgage money in its envelope, the food money in its food envelope, etc.  Gail Vaz-Oxlade used this on 'Till Debt Do Us Part for people to learn how to budget.

It is the easy credit mind set, not the method of payment, that really matters.  We have had functional budgeting methods in the past.  The trick is to relearn them using present-day methods.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 11, 2020, 06:59:01 AM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?

You bring up a very good point.  I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that currency isn't going away. I do think it will be used less and less over time, at least for most "legitimate" transactions.  However the grey and black markets will keep currency going for a good long time. Especially the greenback which has international acceptance.  And then there are the poor who often don't have access to the financial sector, or pay a steep price for it.  The US is not going to give up having the world reserve money voluntarily, and if that means printing currency, that'll just be the price paid.

As for myself, while I do use credit cards for most things, I still use currency as well. It's just easier for transactions among friends and purchases from very small vendors.  Currency is also a great bargaining tool. Finally, I have a moral aversion to businesses NOT accepting cash as what they're really saying is "poor people need not shop here."           
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on April 11, 2020, 07:08:39 AM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?

You bring up a very good point.  I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that currency isn't going away. I do think it will be used less and less over time, at least for most "legitimate" transactions.  However the grey and black markets will keep currency going for a good long time. Especially the greenback which has international acceptance.  And then there are the poor who often don't have access to the financial sector, or pay a steep price for it.  The US is not going to give up having the world reserve money voluntarily, and if that means printing currency, that'll just be the price paid.

As for myself, while I do use credit cards for most things, I still use currency as well. It's just easier for transactions among friends and purchases from very small vendors.  Currency is also a great bargaining tool. Finally, I have a moral aversion to businesses NOT accepting cash as what they're really saying is "poor people need not shop here."         

The US is not going to give up having the world reserve money voluntarily, and if that means printing currency, that'll just be the price paid.

Seriously, wtf are you even talking about???
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 11, 2020, 07:45:04 AM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?

You bring up a very good point.  I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that currency isn't going away. I do think it will be used less and less over time, at least for most "legitimate" transactions.  However the grey and black markets will keep currency going for a good long time. Especially the greenback which has international acceptance.  And then there are the poor who often don't have access to the financial sector, or pay a steep price for it.  The US is not going to give up having the world reserve money voluntarily, and if that means printing currency, that'll just be the price paid.

As for myself, while I do use credit cards for most things, I still use currency as well. It's just easier for transactions among friends and purchases from very small vendors.  Currency is also a great bargaining tool. Finally, I have a moral aversion to businesses NOT accepting cash as what they're really saying is "poor people need not shop here."         

I have never even considered not accepting cash would mean ”poor people need not shop here”. Here everybody can get a debit card and getting a bank account is not a financial decision.

Sometimes the discussions threads give a really sad picture about the american society.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 11, 2020, 08:05:28 AM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?

You bring up a very good point.  I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that currency isn't going away. I do think it will be used less and less over time, at least for most "legitimate" transactions.  However the grey and black markets will keep currency going for a good long time. Especially the greenback which has international acceptance.  And then there are the poor who often don't have access to the financial sector, or pay a steep price for it.  The US is not going to give up having the world reserve money voluntarily, and if that means printing currency, that'll just be the price paid.

As for myself, while I do use credit cards for most things, I still use currency as well. It's just easier for transactions among friends and purchases from very small vendors.  Currency is also a great bargaining tool. Finally, I have a moral aversion to businesses NOT accepting cash as what they're really saying is "poor people need not shop here."         

I have never even considered not accepting cash would mean ”poor people need not shop here”. Here everybody can get a debit card and getting a bank account is not a financial decision.

Sometimes the discussions threads give a really sad picture about the american society.

Honestly, I don’t think this particular problem is an American phenomenon. Not sure where you live, but very poor or homeless people anywhere are unlikely to have bank accounts and debit cards.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 11, 2020, 08:11:51 AM
If you have an address in the UK, you can get a free basic bank account. It is a problem for people who don't have an address at all, but they tend to have big problems that are more than just trying to live life without a debit card.

I agree with the PP that it's not like all transactions ever have been cash. Particularly that in less anonymous times it used to be common for shops to give credit so you could buy things on account and settle up monthly or quarterly. Just like... a credit card!

I spend cash more freely than card because it's already been deducted from my mental tally of how much I have in my account. In my mind the "spending" happens at the ATM. Different strokes for different folks.

I think the US is really behind western Europe on a lot of things. Sure, it's a bigger and more complicated country, but it's still kinda backward on things like banking and healthcare. It would be nice if coronavirus gave the politicians a kick up the arse, but... I doubt it. My dream for the UK is that it significantly advances the case for UBI (it's on my list to write letters to various people about it) but again... I doubt it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 11, 2020, 08:21:36 AM
If you have an address in the UK, you can get a free basic bank account. It is a problem for people who don't have an address at all, but they tend to have big problems that are more than just trying to live life without a debit card.

I agree with the PP that it's not like all transactions ever have been cash. Particularly that in less anonymous times it used to be common for shops to give credit so you could buy things on account and settle up monthly or quarterly. Just like... a credit card!

I spend cash more freely than card because it's already been deducted from my mental tally of how much I have in my account. In my mind the "spending" happens at the ATM. Different strokes for different folks.

I think the US is really behind western Europe on a lot of things. Sure, it's a bigger and more complicated country, but it's still kinda backward on things like banking and healthcare. It would be nice if coronavirus gave the politicians a kick up the arse, but... I doubt it. My dream for the UK is that it significantly advances the case for UBI (it's on my list to write letters to various people about it) but again... I doubt it.


Bank accounts in the US are pretty easy to get. It’s not a question of can get. It’s a question of have.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 11, 2020, 08:28:33 AM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?

You bring up a very good point.  I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that currency isn't going away. I do think it will be used less and less over time, at least for most "legitimate" transactions.  However the grey and black markets will keep currency going for a good long time. Especially the greenback which has international acceptance.  And then there are the poor who often don't have access to the financial sector, or pay a steep price for it.  The US is not going to give up having the world reserve money voluntarily, and if that means printing currency, that'll just be the price paid.

As for myself, while I do use credit cards for most things, I still use currency as well. It's just easier for transactions among friends and purchases from very small vendors.  Currency is also a great bargaining tool. Finally, I have a moral aversion to businesses NOT accepting cash as what they're really saying is "poor people need not shop here."         

I have never even considered not accepting cash would mean ”poor people need not shop here”. Here everybody can get a debit card and getting a bank account is not a financial decision.

Sometimes the discussions threads give a really sad picture about the american society.

Honestly, I don’t think this particular problem is an American phenomenon. Not sure where you live, but very poor or homeless people anywhere are unlikely to have bank accounts and debit cards.

I don’t expect all people in really poor countries to have bank accounts and debit cards but US is counted among the most wealthiest countries in the world.

I am living in Sweden. Even if you where very poor, I don’t think it would be possible to be without  a bank account because it would be very expensive to pay your bills and you have a right to get a bank account. If you are on wellfare you would need the account to get your benefits or if you worked to get your salary. So I guess even the homeless would have at least a bank account if they have not been homeless since childhood.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 11, 2020, 08:34:24 AM
If you have an address in the UK, you can get a free basic bank account. It is a problem for people who don't have an address at all, but they tend to have big problems that are more than just trying to live life without a debit card.

I agree with the PP that it's not like all transactions ever have been cash. Particularly that in less anonymous times it used to be common for shops to give credit so you could buy things on account and settle up monthly or quarterly. Just like... a credit card!

I spend cash more freely than card because it's already been deducted from my mental tally of how much I have in my account. In my mind the "spending" happens at the ATM. Different strokes for different folks.

I think the US is really behind western Europe on a lot of things. Sure, it's a bigger and more complicated country, but it's still kinda backward on things like banking and healthcare. It would be nice if coronavirus gave the politicians a kick up the arse, but... I doubt it. My dream for the UK is that it significantly advances the case for UBI (it's on my list to write letters to various people about it) but again... I doubt it.

I listened to an interesting book A world without work by Daniel Susskind, were he discussed the automation of work and the need of UBI in the future. I can recommend the book if you are interested in promoting UBI. Made me want to strive towards Fire fast.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 11, 2020, 08:48:24 AM
By the way, on the subject of being “unbanked,” here’s a decent global study.

https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/sites/globalfindex/files/chapters/2017%20Findex%20full%20report_chapter2.pdf
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 11, 2020, 09:50:38 AM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?

The same way you you organize anything: by talking. Most of the current US unions don’t seem terribly interested in organizing and labor busting seems to be a well oiled machine. Still, I think events of the past few weeks can safely put lie to the myth that companies will bend over backwards to keep their staff employed. Nope, at the first sign of adversity they will lay people off as quickly as they can. So from a marketing perspective I do think that unions have a pretty good story to tell. I also think that given the large number of foreign born and raised Americans that there is a little less of the bootstrap idea that an individual has as good of an opportunity to negotiate with management as a union does.

Problem is, a very large chunk of the people who will need to be convinced by this are Trump supporters.

They have been taught to think everything is Great(tm) and that talk like that is socialism.

I don’t think the story will sell well to them.

The idea that everything that is wrong with with society is caused by “Trump Supporters” has become a tired canard. It’s also code-speak for saying that we, the “wise and enlightened”  shouldn’t even give it a go. With respect, can we give the partisan politics a rest? Our obsession with it over the last 40 years has landed us where we find ourselves today. It’s also counterproductive because one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 11, 2020, 10:04:02 AM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?

The same way you you organize anything: by talking. Most of the current US unions don’t seem terribly interested in organizing and labor busting seems to be a well oiled machine. Still, I think events of the past few weeks can safely put lie to the myth that companies will bend over backwards to keep their staff employed. Nope, at the first sign of adversity they will lay people off as quickly as they can. So from a marketing perspective I do think that unions have a pretty good story to tell. I also think that given the large number of foreign born and raised Americans that there is a little less of the bootstrap idea that an individual has as good of an opportunity to negotiate with management as a union does.

Problem is, a very large chunk of the people who will need to be convinced by this are Trump supporters.

They have been taught to think everything is Great(tm) and that talk like that is socialism.

I don’t think the story will sell well to them.

The idea that everything that is wrong with with society is caused by “Trump Supporters” has become a tired canard. It’s also code-speak for saying that we, the “wise and enlightened”  shouldn’t even give it a go. With respect, can we give the partisan politics a rest? Our obsession with it over the last 40 years has landed us where we find ourselves today. It’s also counterproductive because one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Sigh.

I’m not saying everything that’s wrong with the country is caused by Trump supporters.

I’m saying Trump supporters have been taught to believe that those ideas you suggest — which are associated with the politics of the left — are non-starters, because they are evil.

And the demographic of many Trump supporters — many aspects of which are the very demographics who need these changes the most — mean that their support is pretty much essential to any of this actually changing.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 11, 2020, 12:39:29 PM
If you have an address in the UK, you can get a free basic bank account. It is a problem for people who don't have an address at all, but they tend to have big problems that are more than just trying to live life without a debit card.

I agree with the PP that it's not like all transactions ever have been cash. Particularly that in less anonymous times it used to be common for shops to give credit so you could buy things on account and settle up monthly or quarterly. Just like... a credit card!

I spend cash more freely than card because it's already been deducted from my mental tally of how much I have in my account. In my mind the "spending" happens at the ATM. Different strokes for different folks.

I think the US is really behind western Europe on a lot of things. Sure, it's a bigger and more complicated country, but it's still kinda backward on things like banking and healthcare. It would be nice if coronavirus gave the politicians a kick up the arse, but... I doubt it. My dream for the UK is that it significantly advances the case for UBI (it's on my list to write letters to various people about it) but again... I doubt it.


Bank accounts in the US are pretty easy to get. It’s not a question of can get. It’s a question of have.

Then why don't people have them if it's so easy? There's clearly some barrier here. Is it just the "pain point" hasn't been reached in American society? As Plina said, in the UK you need a bank account for your benefits to be paid into even if nothing else. And while some small employers would pay you in cash, the stories I hear of people getting literal cheques even for middle class white collar jobs are mind-boggling to me. If things like that started to change (e.g. need a bank account for benefits), would large numbers of previously unbanked people skip happily to the bank to sign up? If not, why not?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Steeze on April 11, 2020, 01:55:07 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?

The same way you you organize anything: by talking. Most of the current US unions don’t seem terribly interested in organizing and labor busting seems to be a well oiled machine. Still, I think events of the past few weeks can safely put lie to the myth that companies will bend over backwards to keep their staff employed. Nope, at the first sign of adversity they will lay people off as quickly as they can. So from a marketing perspective I do think that unions have a pretty good story to tell. I also think that given the large number of foreign born and raised Americans that there is a little less of the bootstrap idea that an individual has as good of an opportunity to negotiate with management as a union does.

Problem is, a very large chunk of the people who will need to be convinced by this are Trump supporters.

They have been taught to think everything is Great(tm) and that talk like that is socialism.

I don’t think the story will sell well to them.

The idea that everything that is wrong with with society is caused by “Trump Supporters” has become a tired canard. It’s also code-speak for saying that we, the “wise and enlightened”  shouldn’t even give it a go. With respect, can we give the partisan politics a rest? Our obsession with it over the last 40 years has landed us where we find ourselves today. It’s also counterproductive because one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Sigh.

I’m not saying everything that’s wrong with the country is caused by Trump supporters.

I’m saying Trump supporters have been taught to believe that those ideas you suggest — which are associated with the politics of the left — are non-starters, because they are evil.

And the demographic of many Trump supporters — many aspects of which are the very demographics who need these changes the most — mean that their support is pretty much essential to any of this actually changing.

If you even say “Union” near my dad he will get that vein in his forehead and he will start quoting Glen Beck and going on about freedom, ‘Merica, and the constitution. Good luck even having a conversation with people like that.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 11, 2020, 02:03:55 PM
If you have an address in the UK, you can get a free basic bank account. It is a problem for people who don't have an address at all, but they tend to have big problems that are more than just trying to live life without a debit card.

I agree with the PP that it's not like all transactions ever have been cash. Particularly that in less anonymous times it used to be common for shops to give credit so you could buy things on account and settle up monthly or quarterly. Just like... a credit card!

I spend cash more freely than card because it's already been deducted from my mental tally of how much I have in my account. In my mind the "spending" happens at the ATM. Different strokes for different folks.

I think the US is really behind western Europe on a lot of things. Sure, it's a bigger and more complicated country, but it's still kinda backward on things like banking and healthcare. It would be nice if coronavirus gave the politicians a kick up the arse, but... I doubt it. My dream for the UK is that it significantly advances the case for UBI (it's on my list to write letters to various people about it) but again... I doubt it.


Bank accounts in the US are pretty easy to get. It’s not a question of can get. It’s a question of have.

Then why don't people have them if it's so easy? There's clearly some barrier here. Is it just the "pain point" hasn't been reached in American society? As Plina said, in the UK you need a bank account for your benefits to be paid into even if nothing else. And while some small employers would pay you in cash, the stories I hear of people getting literal cheques even for middle class white collar jobs are mind-boggling to me. If things like that started to change (e.g. need a bank account for benefits), would large numbers of previously unbanked people skip happily to the bank to sign up? If not, why not?

The study I linked to a few posts above might shed some light, though it isn’t country-specific.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ctuser1 on April 11, 2020, 03:28:46 PM
.. one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

Are you sure you don't have the cause and effect swapped? AFAIK - unions formed and organized over strong objections of "pro-business conservatives" - i.e. the faction that most closely identify today with the Republicans.
 
I'm not sure Unions were the ones who did any "tying their fate" at all. They never had any realistic option otherwise.
 
The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Unions did a load of good 100 years ago when basic rights were in question.

What do you hope to achieve today with unions - in this day of automation? The way union shops operate seem very counter-innovation to me. Would it not be a lot more efficient and effective to let the businesses operate in the most brutal, cutthroat and efficient manner that they choose and produce the most economic value they can, as long as the shareholders and management have to fork over a fair share of their take - realized and unrealized - in the form of taxes. You use that to form a safety net.

Isn't that approach economically more efficient rather than having unions force businesses to keep unproductive headcount on the staff? Whenever you have more people than work - the corporate culture tends to become very anti-innovation and the economic competitiveness of that organization nosedives!

I am a knowledge worker used to a massive degree of autonomy and flexibility at my work. This is how it has always been after the first 1 to 2 years at my career. I can't imagine working in a union shop with the associated "card punching" culture. I used to make it a point to push back against anyone asking me to put accurate hours on time cards (Actual statement I made once - "If you want to treat me like an hour-wage worker - please give me overtime. Here is a 8-hour-flat-every-day timecard for you. You don't need to worry if I need to work 2 hours or 20 hours on any day to get my work done.").
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Icecreamarsenal on April 12, 2020, 11:18:47 AM
Decreased focus on pc-centric gender identity, microaggression, media coverage.
Increased racism against Asian Americans.
Increased net worth disparity.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Monerexia on April 12, 2020, 12:18:12 PM
There will be many more people. In fact, I have discovered through my research that 250 new ones are born every minute so no danger of running out.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Monerexia on April 12, 2020, 12:28:29 PM
.. one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

Are you sure you don't have the cause and effect swapped? AFAIK - unions formed and organized over strong objections of "pro-business conservatives" - i.e. the faction that most closely identify today with the Republicans.
 
I'm not sure Unions were the ones who did any "tying their fate" at all. They never had any realistic option otherwise.
 
The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Unions did a load of good 100 years ago when basic rights were in question.

What do you hope to achieve today with unions - in this day of automation? The way union shops operate seem very counter-innovation to me. Would it not be a lot more efficient and effective to let the businesses operate in the most brutal, cutthroat and efficient manner that they choose and produce the most economic value they can, as long as the shareholders and management have to fork over a fair share of their take - realized and unrealized - in the form of taxes. You use that to form a safety net.

Isn't that approach economically more efficient rather than having unions force businesses to keep unproductive headcount on the staff? Whenever you have more people than work - the corporate culture tends to become very anti-innovation and the economic competitiveness of that organization nosedives!

I am a knowledge worker used to a massive degree of autonomy and flexibility at my work. This is how it has always been after the first 1 to 2 years at my career. I can't imagine working in a union shop with the associated "card punching" culture. I used to make it a point to push back against anyone asking me to put accurate hours on time cards (Actual statement I made once - "If you want to treat me like an hour-wage worker - please give me overtime. Here is a 8-hour-flat-every-day timecard for you. You don't need to worry if I need to work 2 hours or 20 hours on any day to get my work done.").
Yes some people are made for unions some like to be unleashed and earn what they are worth. I worked for awhile as a member of a union and the whole place felt dead--just man your post and STFU and collect your pay. Don't make others look bad with enthusiasm or excessive production. Now I get paid for what I produce and I work twice as hard as anybody else and reap the rewards. Some aren't wired for that though which is a motivation problem.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: teen persuasion on April 12, 2020, 12:59:34 PM
I've been thinking about the in-person transactions we make most frequently and why I love contactless so much, and actually the main way we use contactless is on public transport. All Tube stations and buses in London are contactless so you just tap your card and you've paid for your journey. No queue, no ticket to hang onto. Buses don't take cash any more which saves soooooo much time getting on when people can't try to pay their fare in farthings or "forget" to have enough money. If you don't have contactless on the Tube, you can queue up at a machine in the station, buy an Oyster card, and top it up with a card or cash, but then you have to keep an eye on how much money is on it and queue to top it up all the time. It's only for tourists now. That's the real value of contactless for me - it's removed an entire category of life admin from my life which I used to have to interact with on a frequent basis.

But even in other contexts I have appreciated how quick it is. Literally two seconds. It makes a difference when you're doing a quick transaction in a long queue. Sometimes I have gone so long only doing contactless I have been on the verge of forgetting my pin! (I only use an ATM every few months.)
Reading this and other posts showed me the vast difference between life in Europe and in rural America.  Even rural America in NYS, not the sparsely populated West.

We don't have public transport in my county.  We have no cell service in the area around my property, so we don't own cell phones as they'd be useless.  We do have cable internet (not high speed) at my house, but neighbors a mile away do not have it available.  We don't have natural gas down our road (it's available in the village 3 miles away, though), we have to use oil for heating at a much higher price.

The US has large areas that are just like my lovely hometown, interspersed with pockets of the urban centers that have ALL the trappings of modern life.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 12, 2020, 01:24:04 PM
.. one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

Are you sure you don't have the cause and effect swapped? AFAIK - unions formed and organized over strong objections of "pro-business conservatives" - i.e. the faction that most closely identify today with the Republicans.
 
I'm not sure Unions were the ones who did any "tying their fate" at all. They never had any realistic option otherwise.
 
The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Unions did a load of good 100 years ago when basic rights were in question.

What do you hope to achieve today with unions - in this day of automation? The way union shops operate seem very counter-innovation to me. Would it not be a lot more efficient and effective to let the businesses operate in the most brutal, cutthroat and efficient manner that they choose and produce the most economic value they can, as long as the shareholders and management have to fork over a fair share of their take - realized and unrealized - in the form of taxes. You use that to form a safety net.

Isn't that approach economically more efficient rather than having unions force businesses to keep unproductive headcount on the staff? Whenever you have more people than work - the corporate culture tends to become very anti-innovation and the economic competitiveness of that organization nosedives!

I am a knowledge worker used to a massive degree of autonomy and flexibility at my work. This is how it has always been after the first 1 to 2 years at my career. I can't imagine working in a union shop with the associated "card punching" culture. I used to make it a point to push back against anyone asking me to put accurate hours on time cards (Actual statement I made once - "If you want to treat me like an hour-wage worker - please give me overtime. Here is a 8-hour-flat-every-day timecard for you. You don't need to worry if I need to work 2 hours or 20 hours on any day to get my work done.").
Yes some people are made for unions some like to be unleashed and earn what they are worth. I worked for awhile as a member of a union and the whole place felt dead--just man your post and STFU and collect your pay. Don't make others look bad with enthusiasm or excessive production. Now I get paid for what I produce and I work twice as hard as anybody else and reap the rewards. Some aren't wired for that though which is a motivation problem.

That's a huge generalization about unions though.
DH works in a heavily unionized environment, and there is absolutely no stifling of personal ambition whatsoever. If anything, because of it being so staunchly union, each individual has a better chance of being promoted based on merit because the systems in place practically make cronyism and nepotism impossible.

It will really depend on the specific workplace and union culture.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Monerexia on April 12, 2020, 02:15:21 PM
.. one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

Are you sure you don't have the cause and effect swapped? AFAIK - unions formed and organized over strong objections of "pro-business conservatives" - i.e. the faction that most closely identify today with the Republicans.
 
I'm not sure Unions were the ones who did any "tying their fate" at all. They never had any realistic option otherwise.
 
The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Unions did a load of good 100 years ago when basic rights were in question.

What do you hope to achieve today with unions - in this day of automation? The way union shops operate seem very counter-innovation to me. Would it not be a lot more efficient and effective to let the businesses operate in the most brutal, cutthroat and efficient manner that they choose and produce the most economic value they can, as long as the shareholders and management have to fork over a fair share of their take - realized and unrealized - in the form of taxes. You use that to form a safety net.

Isn't that approach economically more efficient rather than having unions force businesses to keep unproductive headcount on the staff? Whenever you have more people than work - the corporate culture tends to become very anti-innovation and the economic competitiveness of that organization nosedives!

I am a knowledge worker used to a massive degree of autonomy and flexibility at my work. This is how it has always been after the first 1 to 2 years at my career. I can't imagine working in a union shop with the associated "card punching" culture. I used to make it a point to push back against anyone asking me to put accurate hours on time cards (Actual statement I made once - "If you want to treat me like an hour-wage worker - please give me overtime. Here is a 8-hour-flat-every-day timecard for you. You don't need to worry if I need to work 2 hours or 20 hours on any day to get my work done.").
Yes some people are made for unions some like to be unleashed and earn what they are worth. I worked for awhile as a member of a union and the whole place felt dead--just man your post and STFU and collect your pay. Don't make others look bad with enthusiasm or excessive production. Now I get paid for what I produce and I work twice as hard as anybody else and reap the rewards. Some aren't wired for that though which is a motivation problem.

That's a huge generalization about unions though.
DH works in a heavily unionized environment, and there is absolutely no stifling of personal ambition whatsoever. If anything, because of it being so staunchly union, each individual has a better chance of being promoted based on merit because the systems in place practically make cronyism and nepotism impossible.

It will really depend on the specific workplace and union culture.

Yes just my experience. Also, my father was a union tradesman and when there wasn't work for them sometimes for weeks on end they would be issued LBKs (Look Busy Kits, consisting of a clipboard and a pencil etc) and were told "just don't get caught reading." They could wander the job site all day. Good work if you can get it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 12, 2020, 02:51:44 PM
That's a huge generalization about unions though.
DH works in a heavily unionized environment, and there is absolutely no stifling of personal ambition whatsoever. If anything, because of it being so staunchly union, each individual has a better chance of being promoted based on merit because the systems in place practically make cronyism and nepotism impossible.

It will really depend on the specific workplace and union culture.

Yes just my experience. Also, my father was a union tradesman and when there wasn't work for them sometimes for weeks on end they would be issued LBKs (Look Busy Kits, consisting of a clipboard and a pencil etc) and were told "just don't get caught reading." They could wander the job site all day. Good work if you can get it.

Yep, I used to work in staffing and I'm familiar with that type of union environment, but I'm also familiar with how different union environments can be.

 A factory union will differ from a university union will differ from an actor's union will differ from a teacher's union will differ from an engineer union and so on and so on.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Monerexia on April 12, 2020, 02:57:51 PM
That's a huge generalization about unions though.
DH works in a heavily unionized environment, and there is absolutely no stifling of personal ambition whatsoever. If anything, because of it being so staunchly union, each individual has a better chance of being promoted based on merit because the systems in place practically make cronyism and nepotism impossible.

It will really depend on the specific workplace and union culture.

Yes just my experience. Also, my father was a union tradesman and when there wasn't work for them sometimes for weeks on end they would be issued LBKs (Look Busy Kits, consisting of a clipboard and a pencil etc) and were told "just don't get caught reading." They could wander the job site all day. Good work if you can get it.

Yep, I used to work in staffing and I'm familiar with that type of union environment, but I'm also familiar with how different union environments can be.

 A factory union will differ from a university union will differ from an actor's union will differ from a teacher's union will differ from an engineer union and so on and so on.

Yep! And actually there are good and probably unavoidable reasons on the union side for that--it's not as nefarious as it appears--they need the staffing there in case the materials arrive early, or supply chain issues cause inevitable delays. In reality the job is bid and budgeted and will be completed--implementation is always a bit rocky and it's better to have excess capacity than its opposite.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ctuser1 on April 12, 2020, 03:26:07 PM
For a couple of years, I used to work as a "consultant" flying around and working on "re-org" projects. I was an employee of a big-name consulting firm. I was doing it during the good times, so re-org did not mean layoffs, thankfully, just re-organization of businesses.

Some of the union shops seemed to project their "union culture" upwards through the organization even in parts that were not unionized (e.g. the management, tech operations etc). I found a pervasive culture of underachieving in these places.

That can't be good economically!!

Hence my distrust to the concept of unions.

Now, you could argue that the AMA is really a doctor's union, and that the Bar association is a Lawyer's union. If so, then yeah they are very different. I don't think my reservations quite apply to them.
 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 12, 2020, 03:27:13 PM
I've been thinking about the in-person transactions we make most frequently and why I love contactless so much, and actually the main way we use contactless is on public transport. All Tube stations and buses in London are contactless so you just tap your card and you've paid for your journey. No queue, no ticket to hang onto. Buses don't take cash any more which saves soooooo much time getting on when people can't try to pay their fare in farthings or "forget" to have enough money. If you don't have contactless on the Tube, you can queue up at a machine in the station, buy an Oyster card, and top it up with a card or cash, but then you have to keep an eye on how much money is on it and queue to top it up all the time. It's only for tourists now. That's the real value of contactless for me - it's removed an entire category of life admin from my life which I used to have to interact with on a frequent basis.

But even in other contexts I have appreciated how quick it is. Literally two seconds. It makes a difference when you're doing a quick transaction in a long queue. Sometimes I have gone so long only doing contactless I have been on the verge of forgetting my pin! (I only use an ATM every few months.)
Reading this and other posts showed me the vast difference between life in Europe and in rural America.  Even rural America in NYS, not the sparsely populated West.

We don't have public transport in my county.  We have no cell service in the area around my property, so we don't own cell phones as they'd be useless.  We do have cable internet (not high speed) at my house, but neighbors a mile away do not have it available.  We don't have natural gas down our road (it's available in the village 3 miles away, though), we have to use oil for heating at a much higher price.

The US has large areas that are just like my lovely hometown, interspersed with pockets of the urban centers that have ALL the trappings of modern life.

It is sometimes like looking into a totally different world. :)

My parents live in rural Sweden. The closest public transport is 30 miles from their village. The food store is about 25 miles from them, but you can get free home delivery. They haven't had a land line for years, first due to the high cost of having both cellphone and landline and thereafter because the landlines were taken down. Now two operators have cell phone towers that covers the village. That could be problematic if the electricity is out for a long time but luckily they can also get coverage from Finland in need for the same price. Land line telephones are becoming rare. They use the cell towers for internet but high speed internet is planned to be installed by the municipality. Natural gas is mainly used in industries and not in peoples homes. Oil heating has also been disappearing and is pretty rare these days. When I was a kid most of the people in the village and my parents used firewood, now most of them use geothermal heating, air pumps or ground heat.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 12, 2020, 03:48:13 PM
I'd love to see "tap" credit card payments, we almost never use cash except tips while traveling.  I sincerely hope that all Americans stay more interested in sanitary practices everywhere.  I also hope that being an anti-vaxxer becomes no longer socially acceptable and that Americans return to valuing experts and intellectuals. 

Not to derail, but hi to @Wolfpack Mustachian!  I'm assuming Wolfpack is a reference to NC State.  My daughter is home from state finishing up her freshman year

Thanks for the shout out and the correct reference :-)! Good for her; it's a good school. My degree has served me well, and I hope that it serves her in a similar fashion.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: gaja on April 12, 2020, 03:53:02 PM
Some posters have mentioned they've gone entirely cashless...how do you handle private transactions (garage sales, FB Marketplace, Craigslist?). Both as a buyer and a seller.

What do you put in little Johnny's birthday card? If you drop in for a beer at the local watering hole, do you run your card for a $3 purchase knowing they'll get stuck with the fee? When the envelope gets passed around the office, how do you handle that? Eggs for sale at the local farmhouse? A pickup truck load of firewood?

The local courthouse is happy to take a CC for property tax payments...along with a processing fee + 2% on a 4-figure bill. No thanks. Just write a check and drop it in the mail. Though from what I understand, not many EU countries have mail pickup at the home (as a German friend asked, what are those red flags on the boxes?). I was paying our electric bill by CC for points, but being a publicly owned utility, they now also charge a fee in the interest of overhead, so this got moved to a recurring transfer. One more automated payment I have to keep track of.

Our local variety of Swish/venmo is called Vipps. It has no fees for privat transactions, and a small fee for businesses. But it is so easy that it more than makes up for it. Everything else is done via online banking.

.. one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

Are you sure you don't have the cause and effect swapped? AFAIK - unions formed and organized over strong objections of "pro-business conservatives" - i.e. the faction that most closely identify today with the Republicans.
 
I'm not sure Unions were the ones who did any "tying their fate" at all. They never had any realistic option otherwise.
 
The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Unions did a load of good 100 years ago when basic rights were in question.

What do you hope to achieve today with unions - in this day of automation? The way union shops operate seem very counter-innovation to me. Would it not be a lot more efficient and effective to let the businesses operate in the most brutal, cutthroat and efficient manner that they choose and produce the most economic value they can, as long as the shareholders and management have to fork over a fair share of their take - realized and unrealized - in the form of taxes. You use that to form a safety net.

Isn't that approach economically more efficient rather than having unions force businesses to keep unproductive headcount on the staff? Whenever you have more people than work - the corporate culture tends to become very anti-innovation and the economic competitiveness of that organization nosedives!

I am a knowledge worker used to a massive degree of autonomy and flexibility at my work. This is how it has always been after the first 1 to 2 years at my career. I can't imagine working in a union shop with the associated "card punching" culture. I used to make it a point to push back against anyone asking me to put accurate hours on time cards (Actual statement I made once - "If you want to treat me like an hour-wage worker - please give me overtime. Here is a 8-hour-flat-every-day timecard for you. You don't need to worry if I need to work 2 hours or 20 hours on any day to get my work done.").
Yes some people are made for unions some like to be unleashed and earn what they are worth. I worked for awhile as a member of a union and the whole place felt dead--just man your post and STFU and collect your pay. Don't make others look bad with enthusiasm or excessive production. Now I get paid for what I produce and I work twice as hard as anybody else and reap the rewards. Some aren't wired for that though which is a motivation problem.

That's a huge generalization about unions though.
DH works in a heavily unionized environment, and there is absolutely no stifling of personal ambition whatsoever. If anything, because of it being so staunchly union, each individual has a better chance of being promoted based on merit because the systems in place practically make cronyism and nepotism impossible.

It will really depend on the specific workplace and union culture.

Yes just my experience. Also, my father was a union tradesman and when there wasn't work for them sometimes for weeks on end they would be issued LBKs (Look Busy Kits, consisting of a clipboard and a pencil etc) and were told "just don't get caught reading." They could wander the job site all day. Good work if you can get it.
I'm in a union. So are my parents, and 90 % of my friends and coworkers. Most of us are in different ones, there is a lot of choice. My union has saved me thousands in cheap insurances and good rates on mortgage loans. Thanks to my union, DH got $2000/month from our insurance company while we waited for the state do decide on his disability. My union believes in individual pay negotiations, and handles everything on my behalf. I only send in a form annually describing what kind of raise I want, and they usually get quite close. I've never been in a strike, but if it happens, the union have saved up enough to cover my full paycheck for months.

Thanks to unions, we have 5 weeks vacation, 37.5 hour work week, 1 year parental leave, 10 days PTO for sick kids, up to a year with fully paid sick leave, etc. When my job recently went through a merger, the unions negotiated that most of us should stay working at a office close to home, and get full reimbursement of all travels to the main office. For those that had to switch to the new office, they negotiated increased salaries and that up to 2 hours of travel time should be counted as office time (meaning they only had to be at the office for 5.5 hours/day). The unions have also negotiated flexible time schedules. I'm supposed to be available within a core time, I think it is between 9 and 2(?). The reason I don't really know is that as long as you have accumulated extra hours you can use those to reduce the core time. I have a lot of fun projects, so I usually have a lot of extra hours in the bank.Overtime is supposed to be paid out if the boss orders me to work longer hours. That never happens, but I've gotten paid overtime if the boss would rather have me working than taking PTO. We have theoretical hierarchy, but if I disagree with what comes from the main office I can tell them so directly and loudly without any negative repercussions. And if it is a major thing and they won't listen, I can get help from the union.

The Nordic model works well, in a large part due to the three part cooperation: for all large decisions, the government has meetings with the business owner unions, and the workers unions. That way, large conflicts are settled way in advance. One example was in the early phases of the COVID-19 crisis, where the nurses' union agreed to change the regulations for working hours. No need for open conflicts or strikes, the healthcare system has a little bit better chance of handling the pandemic, and the healthcare workers are a bit more protected from being worked into the ground because the union sets preplanned limits.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Monerexia on April 12, 2020, 04:18:38 PM
Some posters have mentioned they've gone entirely cashless...how do you handle private transactions (garage sales, FB Marketplace, Craigslist?). Both as a buyer and a seller.

What do you put in little Johnny's birthday card? If you drop in for a beer at the local watering hole, do you run your card for a $3 purchase knowing they'll get stuck with the fee? When the envelope gets passed around the office, how do you handle that? Eggs for sale at the local farmhouse? A pickup truck load of firewood?

The local courthouse is happy to take a CC for property tax payments...along with a processing fee + 2% on a 4-figure bill. No thanks. Just write a check and drop it in the mail. Though from what I understand, not many EU countries have mail pickup at the home (as a German friend asked, what are those red flags on the boxes?). I was paying our electric bill by CC for points, but being a publicly owned utility, they now also charge a fee in the interest of overhead, so this got moved to a recurring transfer. One more automated payment I have to keep track of.

Our local variety of Swish/venmo is called Vipps. It has no fees for privat transactions, and a small fee for businesses. But it is so easy that it more than makes up for it. Everything else is done via online banking.

.. one of the huge errors unions made in the US was in tying their fate to that of one of our political factions.

Are you sure you don't have the cause and effect swapped? AFAIK - unions formed and organized over strong objections of "pro-business conservatives" - i.e. the faction that most closely identify today with the Republicans.
 
I'm not sure Unions were the ones who did any "tying their fate" at all. They never had any realistic option otherwise.
 
The folks who will benefit most from unionization are those who are already on the margins. The working poor, the unskilled, and those workers who tend to be considered as most disposable. I also happen to think they’re most receptive to a union message.

Im a unionist. A former steward. And I think it’s time to look up my union compatriots. Sounds like a cool retirement side gig.

Unions did a load of good 100 years ago when basic rights were in question.

What do you hope to achieve today with unions - in this day of automation? The way union shops operate seem very counter-innovation to me. Would it not be a lot more efficient and effective to let the businesses operate in the most brutal, cutthroat and efficient manner that they choose and produce the most economic value they can, as long as the shareholders and management have to fork over a fair share of their take - realized and unrealized - in the form of taxes. You use that to form a safety net.

Isn't that approach economically more efficient rather than having unions force businesses to keep unproductive headcount on the staff? Whenever you have more people than work - the corporate culture tends to become very anti-innovation and the economic competitiveness of that organization nosedives!

I am a knowledge worker used to a massive degree of autonomy and flexibility at my work. This is how it has always been after the first 1 to 2 years at my career. I can't imagine working in a union shop with the associated "card punching" culture. I used to make it a point to push back against anyone asking me to put accurate hours on time cards (Actual statement I made once - "If you want to treat me like an hour-wage worker - please give me overtime. Here is a 8-hour-flat-every-day timecard for you. You don't need to worry if I need to work 2 hours or 20 hours on any day to get my work done.").
Yes some people are made for unions some like to be unleashed and earn what they are worth. I worked for awhile as a member of a union and the whole place felt dead--just man your post and STFU and collect your pay. Don't make others look bad with enthusiasm or excessive production. Now I get paid for what I produce and I work twice as hard as anybody else and reap the rewards. Some aren't wired for that though which is a motivation problem.

That's a huge generalization about unions though.
DH works in a heavily unionized environment, and there is absolutely no stifling of personal ambition whatsoever. If anything, because of it being so staunchly union, each individual has a better chance of being promoted based on merit because the systems in place practically make cronyism and nepotism impossible.

It will really depend on the specific workplace and union culture.

Yes just my experience. Also, my father was a union tradesman and when there wasn't work for them sometimes for weeks on end they would be issued LBKs (Look Busy Kits, consisting of a clipboard and a pencil etc) and were told "just don't get caught reading." They could wander the job site all day. Good work if you can get it.
I'm in a union. So are my parents, and 90 % of my friends and coworkers. Most of us are in different ones, there is a lot of choice. My union has saved me thousands in cheap insurances and good rates on mortgage loans. Thanks to my union, DH got $2000/month from our insurance company while we waited for the state do decide on his disability. My union believes in individual pay negotiations, and handles everything on my behalf. I only send in a form annually describing what kind of raise I want, and they usually get quite close. I've never been in a strike, but if it happens, the union have saved up enough to cover my full paycheck for months.

Thanks to unions, we have 5 weeks vacation, 37.5 hour work week, 1 year parental leave, 10 days PTO for sick kids, up to a year with fully paid sick leave, etc. When my job recently went through a merger, the unions negotiated that most of us should stay working at a office close to home, and get full reimbursement of all travels to the main office. For those that had to switch to the new office, they negotiated increased salaries and that up to 2 hours of travel time should be counted as office time (meaning they only had to be at the office for 5.5 hours/day). The unions have also negotiated flexible time schedules. I'm supposed to be available within a core time, I think it is between 9 and 2(?). The reason I don't really know is that as long as you have accumulated extra hours you can use those to reduce the core time. I have a lot of fun projects, so I usually have a lot of extra hours in the bank.Overtime is supposed to be paid out if the boss orders me to work longer hours. That never happens, but I've gotten paid overtime if the boss would rather have me working than taking PTO. We have theoretical hierarchy, but if I disagree with what comes from the main office I can tell them so directly and loudly without any negative repercussions. And if it is a major thing and they won't listen, I can get help from the union.

The Nordic model works well, in a large part due to the three part cooperation: for all large decisions, the government has meetings with the business owner unions, and the workers unions. That way, large conflicts are settled way in advance. One example was in the early phases of the COVID-19 crisis, where the nurses' union agreed to change the regulations for working hours. No need for open conflicts or strikes, the healthcare system has a little bit better chance of handling the pandemic, and the healthcare workers are a bit more protected from being worked into the ground because the union sets preplanned limits.

Ah yes not bad! My experience was not unlike this. Currently I make over three times what I made then, but I do work ~360 days/year for it and any benefits I have are cash on the barrel. Work is quite pleasant, and I spend about 8% of my income on living expenses--it suits me but not for everybody.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: use2betrix on April 12, 2020, 04:19:33 PM
Getting back to the topic, something that I've found pretty heartening of late is the number of labor strikes within the US.  Maybe organization of labor will be one of the good things that comes out of it?

I'd like to believe that Americans won't forget so quickly. Better labor practices, better sick leave policies, and health insurance reform really all ought to be a result of this wake-up call.

One of the few ways we can get all of the above is through widespread unionization. The politicians certainly aren't going to volunteer to do it, and the corporatists sure aren't going to volunteer to pay for it. 

When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.   

So, how do we organize?

The same way you you organize anything: by talking. Most of the current US unions don’t seem terribly interested in organizing and labor busting seems to be a well oiled machine. Still, I think events of the past few weeks can safely put lie to the myth that companies will bend over backwards to keep their staff employed. Nope, at the first sign of adversity they will lay people off as quickly as they can. So from a marketing perspective I do think that unions have a pretty good story to tell. I also think that given the large number of foreign born and raised Americans that there is a little less of the bootstrap idea that an individual has as good of an opportunity to negotiate with management as a union does.

Why are people surprised by this?? You're only a thing of use to an employer. Stop being of use and you will be replaced. And that works both ways, btw. If they're not working for you, don't work for them.

That is a shortsighted mentality and those that share it are doomed to feel the same.

The alternative is making yourself valuable to an employer so they can’t afford to NOT have you. My current job gave me a $45k raise after 6 months (without me asking), and then about a year after I negotiated another $40k plus 3 weeks PTO and paid holidays. I know the value I add to my company and what it’s worth to them.

In the same aspect - we, as employees, are more than welcome to quit whenever we want. No one is obligated to perform a job, nor accept the compensation they are offering.

If you’re worth more, then go out and get it!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 12, 2020, 04:34:32 PM
I think it is making me more motivated to FIRE.  Some have posited that this situation will make FIRE less popular.  Setting aside for the moment where the market might settle our and what that will do to FIRE plans, I think that in our case, it will make us more aggressive about getting out of the workforce, not more hesitant to do so.

While we are worried and anxious and stir-crazy, being home and together all day has been lovely.  A version of this life where we can go on walks and hit up museums and travel and explore and have a picnic?  It's always sounded lovely, but now I feel like we've experienced the together-all-day aspects of it, as well as the we-have-all-the-time-we-need aspects.

DH is currently working in the office one day a week, and from home the rest of the time.  I think it's going to be difficult for him to go back to an everyday office schedule.

I'll just echo this. I must go back to work for 3 days next week after a couple of weeks working at home with my wife home a lot of the time, and I'm like, man, 3 days out is a lot.... I mean, I have gotten stir crazy mostly (I believe) because of the lack of places to go in general, but I'm definitely enjoying the family time.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 12, 2020, 04:46:18 PM
I think it is making me more motivated to FIRE.  Some have posited that this situation will make FIRE less popular.  Setting aside for the moment where the market might settle our and what that will do to FIRE plans, I think that in our case, it will make us more aggressive about getting out of the workforce, not more hesitant to do so.

While we are worried and anxious and stir-crazy, being home and together all day has been lovely.  A version of this life where we can go on walks and hit up museums and travel and explore and have a picnic?  It's always sounded lovely, but now I feel like we've experienced the together-all-day aspects of it, as well as the we-have-all-the-time-we-need aspects.

DH is currently working in the office one day a week, and from home the rest of the time.  I think it's going to be difficult for him to go back to an everyday office schedule.

I'll just echo this. I must go back to work for 3 days next week after a couple of weeks working at home with my wife home a lot of the time, and I'm like, man, 3 days out is a lot.... I mean, I have gotten stir crazy mostly (I believe) because of the lack of places to go in general, but I'm definitely enjoying the family time.

I agree. I mean, we are in a great position (DH retired, I work for myself) but if we had been caught in this pandemic in a not-great financial situation, I’m pretty sure my reaction would have been: a) we have got to redouble our frugality so we’re better prepared next time; and b) life is too short... it’s time to focus on the things and people in my life that really matter.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: kanga1622 on April 12, 2020, 05:36:03 PM
I’ve been watching a great series on Hulu called “The Food That Built America.” It is all about how many huge brands came about through the industrial revolution. I’m up to the point of manufacturing through and just after WWII. It is amazing to see how many things the US used to make here that is now all made in China. The narrators were praising that US had a better economy post war than before as we were able to make such a variety of products and export during the war.

Watching this has really been eye opening. So many of these creators took giant risks or went bankrupt several times before getting the right product and distribution. Seeing this in such a time of uncertainty has given me a little hope that perhaps we will raise some great companies or products from this situation.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: 2Cent on April 13, 2020, 09:13:51 AM
I’ve been watching a great series on Hulu called “The Food That Built America.” It is all about how many huge brands came about through the industrial revolution. I’m up to the point of manufacturing through and just after WWII. It is amazing to see how many things the US used to make here that is now all made in China. The narrators were praising that US had a better economy post war than before as we were able to make such a variety of products and export during the war.

Watching this has really been eye opening. So many of these creators took giant risks or went bankrupt several times before getting the right product and distribution. Seeing this in such a time of uncertainty has given me a little hope that perhaps we will raise some great companies or products from this situation.
During WWII the US actually didn't suffer any major loss. Europe and Japan got bombed to pieces. Especially the industrial centres. While the US was busy selling weapons to the allies. So after the war, all the competition was wiped out, there was a huge demand for products and America was regarded as the champion of democracy protecting the world from the Nazi's and Russians. So that was a uniquely good situation for the US economy.

This crisis will be a big reset for the world. Definitely there will be new companies formed, but it is very possible that the west will lose in a big way to the Chinese. In a way many old companies where already on the way down, but due to cheap credit and political support where surviving. I'm thinking Boeing, GE, etc. With stock prices crashing they may get purchased and stripped of talent and IP.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: former player on April 13, 2020, 09:17:27 AM
I’ve been watching a great series on Hulu called “The Food That Built America.” It is all about how many huge brands came about through the industrial revolution. I’m up to the point of manufacturing through and just after WWII. It is amazing to see how many things the US used to make here that is now all made in China. The narrators were praising that US had a better economy post war than before as we were able to make such a variety of products and export during the war.

Watching this has really been eye opening. So many of these creators took giant risks or went bankrupt several times before getting the right product and distribution. Seeing this in such a time of uncertainty has given me a little hope that perhaps we will raise some great companies or products from this situation.
During WWII the US actually didn't suffer any major loss. Europe and Japan got bombed to pieces. Especially the industrial centres. While the US was busy selling weapons to the allies. So after the war, all the competition was wiped out, there was a huge demand for products and America was regarded as the champion of democracy protecting the world from the Nazi's and Russians. So that was a uniquely good situation for the US economy.

This crisis will be a big reset for the world. Definitely there will be new companies formed, but it is very possible that the west will lose in a big way to the Chinese. In a way many old companies where already on the way down, but due to cheap credit and political support where surviving. I'm thinking Boeing, GE, etc. With stock prices crashing they may get purchased and stripped of talent and IP.
The UK didn't pay off the debt it owed the USA for equipment supplied in WWII until 2006.  Thanks, America.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on April 13, 2020, 09:52:29 AM
The UK didn't pay off the debt it owed the USA for equipment supplied in WWII until 2006.  Thanks, America.

In fairness, as of 2014 the UK was still making interest payments on debt it had originally incurred in 1720 as part of the South Seas Bubble.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/28/world/that-debt-from-1720-britains-payment-is-coming.html

So I don't think taking 60 years or so to pay off debt for equipment the UK chose to purchase from the USA during world war II stands out as particularly exceptional. It just tells us something about how long national debts tend to hang around in general once they are incurred.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: matchewed on April 13, 2020, 11:34:33 AM
I’ve been watching a great series on Hulu called “The Food That Built America.” It is all about how many huge brands came about through the industrial revolution. I’m up to the point of manufacturing through and just after WWII. It is amazing to see how many things the US used to make here that is now all made in China. The narrators were praising that US had a better economy post war than before as we were able to make such a variety of products and export during the war.

Watching this has really been eye opening. So many of these creators took giant risks or went bankrupt several times before getting the right product and distribution. Seeing this in such a time of uncertainty has given me a little hope that perhaps we will raise some great companies or products from this situation.
During WWII the US actually didn't suffer any major loss. Europe and Japan got bombed to pieces. Especially the industrial centres. While the US was busy selling weapons to the allies. So after the war, all the competition was wiped out, there was a huge demand for products and America was regarded as the champion of democracy protecting the world from the Nazi's and Russians. So that was a uniquely good situation for the US economy.

This crisis will be a big reset for the world. Definitely there will be new companies formed, but it is very possible that the west will lose in a big way to the Chinese. In a way many old companies where already on the way down, but due to cheap credit and political support where surviving. I'm thinking Boeing, GE, etc. With stock prices crashing they may get purchased and stripped of talent and IP.

Our manufacturing sector is very mature, the odds of a new wave of companies is very slim unless there is a technological advance which would cause one. Sure will there be some small companies that can't stay afloat in this environment, thereby opening up areas for entrepreneurship? Yeah. Will some of those smaller companies just become a part of a larger capital investment group? Yeah.

Will this somehow increase the amount of manufacturing done in the US? I doubt it. Many of the things that are manufactured in China are closer to the commodity side of the spectrum (Commodity-------------Custom). Commodities are meant to be cheaper and more disposable. It's tough to make things cheap when you have to pay a workforce much more. When your margins are already razor thin you'll dive out of an expensive place to make things like the US and jump to an overseas location for your commodity like products.

Will there be a wave of anti-globalization talk among people? Sure. I think we were already trending xenophobic in our rhetoric. I also think it's hard for Americans to stop their habit of buying crap regardless of an economic bump in the road. Remember people were talking in '08/'09 about how this might make people start to realize that they need to save more money and not leverage themselves to the hilt with an expensive mortgage. That didn't last too long IMO.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 13, 2020, 12:35:43 PM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

The fees are included in the price for the purchase as for cash. You are not allowed to take out a separate fee for use of cards. It costs to make cash deposits and there was a fee for checks already 20 years when I worked in retail. Cash has also the cost of counting, making deposits and bank costs to handling deposit. Not to talk about the cost of robberies and security costs related to cash. That is a big driver to a cashless society.

Interesting. So, the government inherently pays for the cost of cash in all systems I am aware of - at least the explicit costs of making it. Does the government create the system and the infrastructure that allows credit cards/debit cards to function in your situation? Or, do they simply regulate the banking industry and make them eat the cost of it?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: dandarc on April 13, 2020, 12:45:59 PM
The cost of literally printing the currency is not what anyone is talking about when we say "the cost of cash".

Cash has to be inventoried. Counted. Obtained from a bank, deposited at a bank. Need some kind of secure place to keep said cash. You've got even more mistakes made when transacting in cash vs cards. Cash is a lot of work. You know that thing that businesses pay people to do?

People look at a 2 to 3% fee for processing credit cards and think that's really high. Same people usually don't even know what it costs to handle their cash.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 13, 2020, 01:35:55 PM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

The fees are included in the price for the purchase as for cash. You are not allowed to take out a separate fee for use of cards. It costs to make cash deposits and there was a fee for checks already 20 years when I worked in retail. Cash has also the cost of counting, making deposits and bank costs to handling deposit. Not to talk about the cost of robberies and security costs related to cash. That is a big driver to a cashless society.

Interesting. So, the government inherently pays for the cost of cash in all systems I am aware of - at least the explicit costs of making it. Does the government create the system and the infrastructure that allows credit cards/debit cards to function in your situation? Or, do they simply regulate the banking industry and make them eat the cost of it?

As Dandarc points it out the cost of printing the cash is the small cost. Government or probably EU regulates the banking industry. You as the customer take the cost of card fees as well as you take the costs of handling cash. The banking industry pushes all the cost to the customers as any other business would do.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 13, 2020, 01:47:12 PM
I’ve been watching a great series on Hulu called “The Food That Built America.” It is all about how many huge brands came about through the industrial revolution. I’m up to the point of manufacturing through and just after WWII. It is amazing to see how many things the US used to make here that is now all made in China. The narrators were praising that US had a better economy post war than before as we were able to make such a variety of products and export during the war.

Watching this has really been eye opening. So many of these creators took giant risks or went bankrupt several times before getting the right product and distribution. Seeing this in such a time of uncertainty has given me a little hope that perhaps we will raise some great companies or products from this situation.
During WWII the US actually didn't suffer any major loss. Europe and Japan got bombed to pieces. Especially the industrial centres. While the US was busy selling weapons to the allies. So after the war, all the competition was wiped out, there was a huge demand for products and America was regarded as the champion of democracy protecting the world from the Nazi's and Russians. So that was a uniquely good situation for the US economy.

This crisis will be a big reset for the world. Definitely there will be new companies formed, but it is very possible that the west will lose in a big way to the Chinese. In a way many old companies where already on the way down, but due to cheap credit and political support where surviving. I'm thinking Boeing, GE, etc. With stock prices crashing they may get purchased and stripped of talent and IP.

Our manufacturing sector is very mature, the odds of a new wave of companies is very slim unless there is a technological advance which would cause one. Sure will there be some small companies that can't stay afloat in this environment, thereby opening up areas for entrepreneurship? Yeah. Will some of those smaller companies just become a part of a larger capital investment group? Yeah.

Will this somehow increase the amount of manufacturing done in the US? I doubt it. Many of the things that are manufactured in China are closer to the commodity side of the spectrum (Commodity-------------Custom). Commodities are meant to be cheaper and more disposable. It's tough to make things cheap when you have to pay a workforce much more. When your margins are already razor thin you'll dive out of an expensive place to make things like the US and jump to an overseas location for your commodity like products.

Will there be a wave of anti-globalization talk among people? Sure. I think we were already trending xenophobic in our rhetoric. I also think it's hard for Americans to stop their habit of buying crap regardless of an economic bump in the road. Remember people were talking in '08/'09 about how this might make people start to realize that they need to save more money and not leverage themselves to the hilt with an expensive mortgage. That didn't last too long IMO.

We have some companies that have started making protective gear in the country or are going to ramp up the production. One of them are importing the machinery from China and they are automating the part that is currently sewn  by Chinese workers. Another one is today making the fabric to Chinese factories were they sew the gowns. Now they have found a way to weld the gown instead of sewing it in china. So machines are fast replacing the Chinese workers as the cost of the supply chain have gone up. I have also read some articles were companies are talking about automating part of the production and taking it back to europé, mainly eastern europe due to risk we have seen with interrupted supply chains.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 13, 2020, 02:12:14 PM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

The fees are included in the price for the purchase as for cash. You are not allowed to take out a separate fee for use of cards. It costs to make cash deposits and there was a fee for checks already 20 years when I worked in retail. Cash has also the cost of counting, making deposits and bank costs to handling deposit. Not to talk about the cost of robberies and security costs related to cash. That is a big driver to a cashless society.

Interesting. So, the government inherently pays for the cost of cash in all systems I am aware of - at least the explicit costs of making it. Does the government create the system and the infrastructure that allows credit cards/debit cards to function in your situation? Or, do they simply regulate the banking industry and make them eat the cost of it?

As Dandarc points it out the cost of printing the cash is the small cost. Government or probably EU regulates the banking industry. You as the customer take the cost of card fees as well as you take the costs of handling cash. The banking industry pushes all the cost to the customers as any other business would do.

Right, I'm not arguing with the cost of cash outside of printing it, nor was I ever. It has a cost both societally and to the parties involved in the transfer - although I would think the cost is almost certainly smaller on a smaller scale where one person or couple sell personal goods directly, take cash, and then either uses the cash themselves (as people in those situations tend to be live more cash involved lives) or make a single deposit to the bank or whatnot (my theory, may not be true). In that context, 2-3% does certainly seem high to me. I had been simply saying earlier that I still feel that given the current situation where cash exists, for certain situations like farmer's markets or larger donations to a non-profit organization, it still makes sense to use cash or checks if you want to help the people there to avoid fees given our current setup for money. My goal is to talk to farmer's market people whenever I get a chance to see if they see it the same way.

My specific question was that there is an explicit cost of doing business that has to be put on someone. There are implicit costs as well, and they can be weighed by the parties involved in terms of what they accept or at least how they push for one type of payment or the other. Taxpayers as a whole front the cost of printing the money which is the explicit cost of using cash. I was curious if the government had actually created any infrastructure for it (doubt it but was curious) to do the backbone of simple money transactions or if they had simply regulated banks to declare that this will be free as a cost of doing business as a banks, thus where they transfer it on to the consumer. It sounds like the government doesn't charge for the cost it in taxes but forces banks to charge for it to customers in general. No moral judging either way, just curious, and in retrospect, probably a dumb question.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ketchup on April 13, 2020, 02:18:39 PM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?
I hate physical cash.  I hate having it in my wallet.  I'm way more likely to spend it on something dumb just to make it go away than I ever am to make a conscious swipe of the credit card, creating a transaction record that will exist forever.  Cash is fleeting, ethereal.  Once it's gone it's like it was never there.  My spending definitely feels less "real" when it's physical cash.  I'm probably not in the majority there.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: dividendman on April 13, 2020, 02:22:49 PM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?
I hate physical cash.  I hate having it in my wallet.  I'm way more likely to spend it on something dumb just to make it go away than I ever am to make a conscious swipe of the credit card, creating a transaction record that will exist forever.  Cash is fleeting, ethereal.  Once it's gone it's like it was never there.  My spending definitely feels less "real" when it's physical cash.  I'm probably not in the majority there.

I'm with you ketchup. Cash is already spent in my head. It's not in any accounts that I tally up for net worth. So... it's like "free" spending.

It's the worst :(
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 13, 2020, 02:31:02 PM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

The fees are included in the price for the purchase as for cash. You are not allowed to take out a separate fee for use of cards. It costs to make cash deposits and there was a fee for checks already 20 years when I worked in retail. Cash has also the cost of counting, making deposits and bank costs to handling deposit. Not to talk about the cost of robberies and security costs related to cash. That is a big driver to a cashless society.

Interesting. So, the government inherently pays for the cost of cash in all systems I am aware of - at least the explicit costs of making it. Does the government create the system and the infrastructure that allows credit cards/debit cards to function in your situation? Or, do they simply regulate the banking industry and make them eat the cost of it?

As Dandarc points it out the cost of printing the cash is the small cost. Government or probably EU regulates the banking industry. You as the customer take the cost of card fees as well as you take the costs of handling cash. The banking industry pushes all the cost to the customers as any other business would do.

Right, I'm not arguing with the cost of cash outside of printing it, nor was I ever. It has a cost both societally and to the parties involved in the transfer - although I would think the cost is almost certainly smaller on a smaller scale where one person or couple sell personal goods directly, take cash, and then either uses the cash themselves (as people in those situations tend to be live more cash involved lives) or make a single deposit to the bank or whatnot (my theory, may not be true). In that context, 2-3% does certainly seem high to me. I had been simply saying earlier that I still feel that given the current situation where cash exists, for certain situations like farmer's markets or larger donations to a non-profit organization, it still makes sense to use cash or checks if you want to help the people there to avoid fees given our current setup for money. My goal is to talk to farmer's market people whenever I get a chance to see if they see it the same way.

My specific question was that there is an explicit cost of doing business that has to be put on someone. There are implicit costs as well, and they can be weighed by the parties involved in terms of what they accept or at least how they push for one type of payment or the other. Taxpayers as a whole front the cost of printing the money which is the explicit cost of using cash. I was curious if the government had actually created any infrastructure for it (doubt it but was curious) to do the backbone of simple money transactions or if they had simply regulated banks to declare that this will be free as a cost of doing business as a banks, thus where they transfer it on to the consumer. It sounds like the government doesn't charge for the cost it in taxes but forces banks to charge for it to customers in general. No moral judging either way, just curious, and in retrospect, probably a dumb question.

Electronical payments between private persons does not cost anything. The swish option for companies is 6 USD per month and about 25-30 cents per transfer for the seller depending on your setup. That is the system mostly used at farmers markets and by small businesses. You can also use it to give money to charities.

The card payment option for small businesses have a 1,85 % fee.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Psychstache on April 13, 2020, 02:38:28 PM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?
I hate physical cash.  I hate having it in my wallet. I'm way more likely to spend it on something dumb just to make it go away than I ever am to make a conscious swipe of the credit card, creating a transaction record that will exist forever.  Cash is fleeting, ethereal.  Once it's gone it's like it was never there. My spending definitely feels less "real" when it's physical cash.  I'm probably not in the majority there.

+1

My first job I got when I was 15 had DD and I already had a  debit card and checking account, so digital money has always been very 'real' for me. I also worked a lot of jobs where we handled a LOT of cash so I never had this mystique of lots of physical money.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 13, 2020, 02:42:59 PM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?
I hate physical cash.  I hate having it in my wallet.  I'm way more likely to spend it on something dumb just to make it go away than I ever am to make a conscious swipe of the credit card, creating a transaction record that will exist forever.  Cash is fleeting, ethereal.  Once it's gone it's like it was never there.  My spending definitely feels less "real" when it's physical cash.  I'm probably not in the majority there.

Husband and I feel the same way. I can download every credit card or bank transaction directly into my financial planning software so I know exactly what we spent in which categories each month. Cash just gets frittered away.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Panly on April 13, 2020, 03:08:13 PM

my cooking ability will have increased by at least 50%  (albeit from a very low base, haha)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 13, 2020, 03:41:31 PM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?
I hate physical cash.  I hate having it in my wallet. I'm way more likely to spend it on something dumb just to make it go away than I ever am to make a conscious swipe of the credit card, creating a transaction record that will exist forever.  Cash is fleeting, ethereal.  Once it's gone it's like it was never there. My spending definitely feels less "real" when it's physical cash.  I'm probably not in the majority there.

+1

My first job I got when I was 15 had DD and I already had a  debit card and checking account, so digital money has always been very 'real' for me. I also worked a lot of jobs where we handled a LOT of cash so I never had this mystique of lots of physical money.

I remember the dirty feeling and smell on my hands when I dealt with cash or even worse coins in retail.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Gremlin on April 13, 2020, 05:08:24 PM
The cost of literally printing the currency is not what anyone is talking about when we say "the cost of cash".

Cash has to be inventoried. Counted. Obtained from a bank, deposited at a bank. Need some kind of secure place to keep said cash. You've got even more mistakes made when transacting in cash vs cards. Cash is a lot of work. You know that thing that businesses pay people to do?

People look at a 2 to 3% fee for processing credit cards and think that's really high. Same people usually don't even know what it costs to handle their cash.

I've never worked in a retail environment but a friend of mine opened a cafe a couple of years back.  Electronic transactions only.  I asked him this exact question.  He said he'd crunched the numbers and the cost of handling cash was just way too high.  It blew my mind at the time.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIPurpose on April 13, 2020, 06:25:55 PM
The cost of literally printing the currency is not what anyone is talking about when we say "the cost of cash".

Cash has to be inventoried. Counted. Obtained from a bank, deposited at a bank. Need some kind of secure place to keep said cash. You've got even more mistakes made when transacting in cash vs cards. Cash is a lot of work. You know that thing that businesses pay people to do?

People look at a 2 to 3% fee for processing credit cards and think that's really high. Same people usually don't even know what it costs to handle their cash.

I've never worked in a retail environment but a friend of mine opened a cafe a couple of years back.  Electronic transactions only.  I asked him this exact question.  He said he'd crunched the numbers and the cost of handling cash was just way too high.  It blew my mind at the time.

Most places I worked at when I was younger only trusted management to count the money too. So it's not even the minimum wage earners most of the time. That was basically half of the shift manager's job was to count, record, and deposit money. I could easily see a restaurant that didn't count money, could likely do without 1 of their current employees.

Never thought about it before you said this though. It makes intuitive sense to me.

Certain businesses though wouldn't be able to manage on only customers that have access to electronic payments.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 14, 2020, 05:33:21 AM
If you have an address in the UK, you can get a free basic bank account. It is a problem for people who don't have an address at all, but they tend to have big problems that are more than just trying to live life without a debit card.

I agree with the PP that it's not like all transactions ever have been cash. Particularly that in less anonymous times it used to be common for shops to give credit so you could buy things on account and settle up monthly or quarterly. Just like... a credit card!

I spend cash more freely than card because it's already been deducted from my mental tally of how much I have in my account. In my mind the "spending" happens at the ATM. Different strokes for different folks.

I think the US is really behind western Europe on a lot of things. Sure, it's a bigger and more complicated country, but it's still kinda backward on things like banking and healthcare. It would be nice if coronavirus gave the politicians a kick up the arse, but... I doubt it. My dream for the UK is that it significantly advances the case for UBI (it's on my list to write letters to various people about it) but again... I doubt it.


Bank accounts in the US are pretty easy to get. It’s not a question of can get. It’s a question of have.

Then why don't people have them if it's so easy? There's clearly some barrier here. Is it just the "pain point" hasn't been reached in American society? As Plina said, in the UK you need a bank account for your benefits to be paid into even if nothing else. And while some small employers would pay you in cash, the stories I hear of people getting literal cheques even for middle class white collar jobs are mind-boggling to me. If things like that started to change (e.g. need a bank account for benefits), would large numbers of previously unbanked people skip happily to the bank to sign up? If not, why not?

I don't think bank accounts are so easy to get in the US, especially at the larger banks. You've got to have ID and a minimum amount of money to deposit, and there are fees, especially if you don't keep a certain amount of $ in that account.

Benefits are typically paid on a different, government issued card, though. Housing benefits are paid to the landlord (AFAIK), food benefits and cash assistance go onto a state issued card.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ctuser1 on April 14, 2020, 06:27:53 AM
I don't think bank accounts are so easy to get in the US, especially at the larger banks. You've got to have ID and a minimum amount of money to deposit, and there are fees, especially if you don't keep a certain amount of $ in that account.

You can get around to a lot of those issues at a credit union.

I personally use a big one - DCU. They require $5 "share" deposit. There are many other local ones in Connecticut (and anywhere else I have "lived" - including Cincinnati) where you can have an account for $5.

ID is required. But credit unions will typically work with you if you don't have it.

Is it that credit unions are very uncommon in more rural corners? They aren't in CT - but I realize most of the country are not defined by what is normal in CT.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 14, 2020, 06:51:28 AM
Question for people in the essentially cashless society. Are the fees associated with electronic purchases just a part of life? Are they handled by the government? When I use it at places like the local farmer's market/writing checks to places I want to donate money too/etc. it makes me a little bit happier to realize they are not losing x% of it to fees that are unnecessary. I could care less about it if I buy something at Amazon or Walmart, but it does mean something for certain places that get my money.

The fees are included in the price for the purchase as for cash. You are not allowed to take out a separate fee for use of cards. It costs to make cash deposits and there was a fee for checks already 20 years when I worked in retail. Cash has also the cost of counting, making deposits and bank costs to handling deposit. Not to talk about the cost of robberies and security costs related to cash. That is a big driver to a cashless society.

Interesting. So, the government inherently pays for the cost of cash in all systems I am aware of - at least the explicit costs of making it. Does the government create the system and the infrastructure that allows credit cards/debit cards to function in your situation? Or, do they simply regulate the banking industry and make them eat the cost of it?

As Dandarc points it out the cost of printing the cash is the small cost. Government or probably EU regulates the banking industry. You as the customer take the cost of card fees as well as you take the costs of handling cash. The banking industry pushes all the cost to the customers as any other business would do.

Right, I'm not arguing with the cost of cash outside of printing it, nor was I ever. It has a cost both societally and to the parties involved in the transfer - although I would think the cost is almost certainly smaller on a smaller scale where one person or couple sell personal goods directly, take cash, and then either uses the cash themselves (as people in those situations tend to be live more cash involved lives) or make a single deposit to the bank or whatnot (my theory, may not be true). In that context, 2-3% does certainly seem high to me. I had been simply saying earlier that I still feel that given the current situation where cash exists, for certain situations like farmer's markets or larger donations to a non-profit organization, it still makes sense to use cash or checks if you want to help the people there to avoid fees given our current setup for money. My goal is to talk to farmer's market people whenever I get a chance to see if they see it the same way.

My specific question was that there is an explicit cost of doing business that has to be put on someone. There are implicit costs as well, and they can be weighed by the parties involved in terms of what they accept or at least how they push for one type of payment or the other. Taxpayers as a whole front the cost of printing the money which is the explicit cost of using cash. I was curious if the government had actually created any infrastructure for it (doubt it but was curious) to do the backbone of simple money transactions or if they had simply regulated banks to declare that this will be free as a cost of doing business as a banks, thus where they transfer it on to the consumer. It sounds like the government doesn't charge for the cost it in taxes but forces banks to charge for it to customers in general. No moral judging either way, just curious, and in retrospect, probably a dumb question.

Electronical payments between private persons does not cost anything. The swish option for companies is 6 USD per month and about 25-30 cents per transfer for the seller depending on your setup. That is the system mostly used at farmers markets and by small businesses. You can also use it to give money to charities.

The card payment option for small businesses have a 1,85 % fee.

Interesting. I'll have to look into this. I haven't seen anything at the farmer's market or events where there are local sellers that imply anything beyond a generic "we take VISA, MC, etc." Thanks.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ctuser1 on April 14, 2020, 08:04:06 AM
I've used Zelle a few times to make a few small electronic payments to some people. Random bar tab splits, paying a handyman etc. etc.

In all these cases - no fees for me, and none of the payees have complained about any fees either.

All electronic, no fees, seems much cleaner to me than cash. In half of the cases the recipient did not have a Zelle account, and seemed to be able to get set up with Zelle and connect it to their bank account pretty quickly.

I still carry some cash in my wallet for "just in case", but often go months before having to touch any of it.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Sugaree on April 14, 2020, 08:08:07 AM
I realize that most folks here have some self-restraint when it comes to spending money, especially what I'd categorize as "impulse buys." I think I'm in that camp too.

But...

Even I admit that spending cash is psychologically harder for me than just swiping a card. I tend to really be conservative with my spare cash, partially I guess because it's limited, but also because it's more "real" on some level, when I have a $20 bill in my hand, and I tend to question my purchase more.

I know "cashless" or some version near that, is going to happen soon, and I've already pointed out how it will hurt the elderly and lower-income people, but it won't exactly help the "generally middle-class Dave Ramsey caller" types either. By that, I mean the folks with decent jobs who still tend to spend everything they make and save little for retirement.

And the easier we make it to spend money (card swiping becomes just a tap, a tap becomes a wave of your hand, or just looking at something with your eyeballs), the most these people will struggle with their impulses. Cash can slow down people a little. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but there's a reason Dave talks about cash so much, because on some level it DOES create at least a bit of friction.

Is it really a good thing, if in 2 years, you can order from Amazon just by looking at an item and blinking? I mean, isn't SOME level of friction a good thing to balance between convenience and many people spending more recklessly and mindlessly than they already do?
I hate physical cash.  I hate having it in my wallet.  I'm way more likely to spend it on something dumb just to make it go away than I ever am to make a conscious swipe of the credit card, creating a transaction record that will exist forever.  Cash is fleeting, ethereal.  Once it's gone it's like it was never there.  My spending definitely feels less "real" when it's physical cash.  I'm probably not in the majority there.

I'm with you ketchup. Cash is already spent in my head. It's not in any accounts that I tally up for net worth. So... it's like "free" spending.

It's the worst :(

Same here.  I think it has to do with the fact that I had my first checking account before having my first job.  So any money in my account is money and any cash came from gifts or something other than my working.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on April 14, 2020, 08:45:38 AM
The research on this topic suggests that Spartana/Nick_Miller's experience is probably more representative of the general public. People tend to be willing to spend more for the same items when paying with a credit card than when paying with cash. Here's one of the classical early papers (https://web.mit.edu/simester/Public/Papers/Alwaysleavehome.pdf) in the field in study from back in 2001 (sorry for the PDF link).

Businesses are also aware of this. A more recent paper showed that once states convert from cash tolls to electronic tolls (https://www.nber.org/papers/w12924), they were able to raise toll rates by 20-40%.

So keep in mind that when businesses are pushing people towards electronic payments and trying to reduce and eliminate cash, they aren't just doing it for efficiency, they're doing it because it because it'll cause their customers to spend more.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Kris on April 14, 2020, 08:51:38 AM
The research on this topic suggests that Spartana/Nick_Miller's experience is probably more representative of the general public. People tend to be willing to spend more for the same items when paying with a credit card than when paying with cash. Here's one of the classical early papers (https://web.mit.edu/simester/Public/Papers/Alwaysleavehome.pdf) in the field in study from back in 2001 (sorry for the PDF link).

Businesses are also aware of this. A more recent paper showed that once states convert from cash tolls to electronic tolls (https://www.nber.org/papers/w12924), they were able to raise toll rates by 20-40%.

So keep in mind that when businesses are pushing people towards electronic payments and trying to reduce and eliminate cash, they aren't just doing it for efficiency, they're doing it because it because it'll cause their customers to spend more.

I definitely am not surprised by this.

I'm someone who definitely wants to move technology forward toward contactless. But at the same time, the idea of cash not being accepted -- as legal freaking tender!!! -- outrages me. Because again, not everyone has equal access to the technologies in question.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 14, 2020, 01:09:54 PM
I mean, I took it to the extreme with a small amount of our cash reserves. $2500 in quarters in my closet, some rolled, some not.

And it's "my" money, left over from my pocket money over a period of like two years. Do you know how many times I would have spent that money on stuff had it not been in quarters? At least three times that I can count.

Yet I haven't, because the friction was too great.

And I haven't deprived myself at all. I mean, I have everything I need. Plus I have $2500 which would almost pay our mortgage for 2 months in case of an extreme emergency.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 14, 2020, 01:36:50 PM
I mean, I took it to the extreme with a small amount of our cash reserves. $2500 in quarters in my closet, some rolled, some not.

And it's "my" money, left over from my pocket money over a period of like two years. Do you know how many times I would have spent that money on stuff had it not been in quarters? At least three times that I can count.

Yet I haven't, because the friction was too great.

And I haven't deprived myself at all. I mean, I have everything I need. Plus I have $2500 which would almost pay our mortgage for 2 months in case of an extreme emergency.

Some years ago I had a bag of coins with about 200 euros, about 200 USD that, I took with me on a biking vacation to Spain. It was a pretty heavy bag. We had all inklusive half of the time but you had to pay for the water and other drinks. The waiters were not happy to be paid by coins for their 2 euro water. Mallorca also has these Nice little cafés were you could get coffe for 2 euros in some small town café. The bag of coins lasted the whole two week vacation and was a pretty Nice way to use the coins that otherwise would still have been in a cupboard somewhere.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 15, 2020, 06:03:49 AM
I don't think bank accounts are so easy to get in the US, especially at the larger banks. You've got to have ID and a minimum amount of money to deposit, and there are fees, especially if you don't keep a certain amount of $ in that account.

You can get around to a lot of those issues at a credit union.

I personally use a big one - DCU. They require $5 "share" deposit. There are many other local ones in Connecticut (and anywhere else I have "lived" - including Cincinnati) where you can have an account for $5.

ID is required. But credit unions will typically work with you if you don't have it.

Is it that credit unions are very uncommon in more rural corners? They aren't in CT - but I realize most of the country are not defined by what is normal in CT.

You *can* get around them, but your average minimum wage worker is not awfully likely to pursue that, and while I think they are all open to the public now, they used to be connected to a specific job, at least in Ohio. We do belong to the credit union, which used to be limited to teachers. We keep our Big Emergency Account there, because it's local but not that easily accessible. There are not a lot of conveniently located branches. in fact, I've never been in that credit union - dh drops stuff off there when he's at work.

I'd also point out that there is a cash economy that some people voluntarily participate in, for a lot of reasons. It's not just drug deals. Cash is untraceable, and doesn't show up on your taxes. There are an awful lot of $100 bills circulating for that reason.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: matchewed on April 15, 2020, 07:31:59 AM
I’ve been watching a great series on Hulu called “The Food That Built America.” It is all about how many huge brands came about through the industrial revolution. I’m up to the point of manufacturing through and just after WWII. It is amazing to see how many things the US used to make here that is now all made in China. The narrators were praising that US had a better economy post war than before as we were able to make such a variety of products and export during the war.

Watching this has really been eye opening. So many of these creators took giant risks or went bankrupt several times before getting the right product and distribution. Seeing this in such a time of uncertainty has given me a little hope that perhaps we will raise some great companies or products from this situation.
During WWII the US actually didn't suffer any major loss. Europe and Japan got bombed to pieces. Especially the industrial centres. While the US was busy selling weapons to the allies. So after the war, all the competition was wiped out, there was a huge demand for products and America was regarded as the champion of democracy protecting the world from the Nazi's and Russians. So that was a uniquely good situation for the US economy.

This crisis will be a big reset for the world. Definitely there will be new companies formed, but it is very possible that the west will lose in a big way to the Chinese. In a way many old companies where already on the way down, but due to cheap credit and political support where surviving. I'm thinking Boeing, GE, etc. With stock prices crashing they may get purchased and stripped of talent and IP.

Our manufacturing sector is very mature, the odds of a new wave of companies is very slim unless there is a technological advance which would cause one. Sure will there be some small companies that can't stay afloat in this environment, thereby opening up areas for entrepreneurship? Yeah. Will some of those smaller companies just become a part of a larger capital investment group? Yeah.

Will this somehow increase the amount of manufacturing done in the US? I doubt it. Many of the things that are manufactured in China are closer to the commodity side of the spectrum (Commodity-------------Custom). Commodities are meant to be cheaper and more disposable. It's tough to make things cheap when you have to pay a workforce much more. When your margins are already razor thin you'll dive out of an expensive place to make things like the US and jump to an overseas location for your commodity like products.

Will there be a wave of anti-globalization talk among people? Sure. I think we were already trending xenophobic in our rhetoric. I also think it's hard for Americans to stop their habit of buying crap regardless of an economic bump in the road. Remember people were talking in '08/'09 about how this might make people start to realize that they need to save more money and not leverage themselves to the hilt with an expensive mortgage. That didn't last too long IMO.

We have some companies that have started making protective gear in the country or are going to ramp up the production. One of them are importing the machinery from China and they are automating the part that is currently sewn  by Chinese workers. Another one is today making the fabric to Chinese factories were they sew the gowns. Now they have found a way to weld the gown instead of sewing it in china. So machines are fast replacing the Chinese workers as the cost of the supply chain have gone up. I have also read some articles were companies are talking about automating part of the production and taking it back to europé, mainly eastern europe due to risk we have seen with interrupted supply chains.

But that is for product that is in exceptional demand due to current temporary circumstances. That PPE isn't going to remain in permanent high demand. When the need for that disappears what happens to those companies?

As for supply chain you do have a point there. I do think that supply chains in general will be impacted by this. How that shakes out will be particular to each thing being made and the availability of the raw materials. I'm not so convinced that a permanent shakeup of how business was done is going to happen. If anything how prepared countries are to respond to illnesses will change but I don't think how things or where things are made is going to rapidly change due to coronavirus.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 15, 2020, 09:01:49 AM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 15, 2020, 09:54:53 AM
I’ve been watching a great series on Hulu called “The Food That Built America.” It is all about how many huge brands came about through the industrial revolution. I’m up to the point of manufacturing through and just after WWII. It is amazing to see how many things the US used to make here that is now all made in China. The narrators were praising that US had a better economy post war than before as we were able to make such a variety of products and export during the war.

Watching this has really been eye opening. So many of these creators took giant risks or went bankrupt several times before getting the right product and distribution. Seeing this in such a time of uncertainty has given me a little hope that perhaps we will raise some great companies or products from this situation.
During WWII the US actually didn't suffer any major loss. Europe and Japan got bombed to pieces. Especially the industrial centres. While the US was busy selling weapons to the allies. So after the war, all the competition was wiped out, there was a huge demand for products and America was regarded as the champion of democracy protecting the world from the Nazi's and Russians. So that was a uniquely good situation for the US economy.

This crisis will be a big reset for the world. Definitely there will be new companies formed, but it is very possible that the west will lose in a big way to the Chinese. In a way many old companies where already on the way down, but due to cheap credit and political support where surviving. I'm thinking Boeing, GE, etc. With stock prices crashing they may get purchased and stripped of talent and IP.

Our manufacturing sector is very mature, the odds of a new wave of companies is very slim unless there is a technological advance which would cause one. Sure will there be some small companies that can't stay afloat in this environment, thereby opening up areas for entrepreneurship? Yeah. Will some of those smaller companies just become a part of a larger capital investment group? Yeah.

Will this somehow increase the amount of manufacturing done in the US? I doubt it. Many of the things that are manufactured in China are closer to the commodity side of the spectrum (Commodity-------------Custom). Commodities are meant to be cheaper and more disposable. It's tough to make things cheap when you have to pay a workforce much more. When your margins are already razor thin you'll dive out of an expensive place to make things like the US and jump to an overseas location for your commodity like products.

Will there be a wave of anti-globalization talk among people? Sure. I think we were already trending xenophobic in our rhetoric. I also think it's hard for Americans to stop their habit of buying crap regardless of an economic bump in the road. Remember people were talking in '08/'09 about how this might make people start to realize that they need to save more money and not leverage themselves to the hilt with an expensive mortgage. That didn't last too long IMO.

We have some companies that have started making protective gear in the country or are going to ramp up the production. One of them are importing the machinery from China and they are automating the part that is currently sewn  by Chinese workers. Another one is today making the fabric to Chinese factories were they sew the gowns. Now they have found a way to weld the gown instead of sewing it in china. So machines are fast replacing the Chinese workers as the cost of the supply chain have gone up. I have also read some articles were companies are talking about automating part of the production and taking it back to europé, mainly eastern europe due to risk we have seen with interrupted supply chains.

But that is for product that is in exceptional demand due to current temporary circumstances. That PPE isn't going to remain in permanent high demand. When the need for that disappears what happens to those companies?

As for supply chain you do have a point there. I do think that supply chains in general will be impacted by this. How that shakes out will be particular to each thing being made and the availability of the raw materials. I'm not so convinced that a permanent shakeup of how business was done is going to happen. If anything how prepared countries are to respond to illnesses will change but I don't think how things or where things are made is going to rapidly change due to coronavirus.

They are both hygiene and health related companies. The first one is not the corona virus specific masks but rather the lighter ones. If they already have the machinery and it is automated the cost should be lower than having Chinese doing it by hand so I think they will continue producing the stuff even when the high demand is over. Especially the first company could have continued producing the masks in a lot smaller quantity as they currently do instead of investing in new machinery. The wage levels are also increasing in China so companies are looking for cheaper markets and therefore automation could be an interesting option.
It will be interesting to follow.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Optimiser on April 15, 2020, 10:20:27 AM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

My daughter is starting high school next year too. She has been really good about the transition to learning at home, but she does not like it. In her mind things will be back to normal by the time school starts in the fall, but if they aren't she is gong to be devastated. My preschooler on the other hand seems to vastly prefer being home vs. going to school, but I think that half day of social interaction, that she is missing out on now, was really good for her development.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: CodingHare on April 15, 2020, 10:39:25 AM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

As a person who was homeschooled from K-12, I can say that social isolation is a big deal in those years.  I didn't speak to anyone my own age all through highschool, except online.  When I went to college I was unable to relate to my peers due to missing socialization skills.  It's only in my late twenties that I'm starting to overcome not building those skills in the formative years.

I mean, my homeschooling was way more restrictive than what most kids are facing now, but it's certainly not ideal for anyone.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: dandarc on April 15, 2020, 10:45:55 AM
@CodingHare - I went to public school my whole life and didn't really develop the social skills until well into my 20's. And I don't recall any time when I was away from school for a super long time for any reason.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 15, 2020, 10:57:33 AM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

My daughter is starting high school next year too. She has been really good about the transition to learning at home, but she does not like it. In her mind things will be back to normal by the time school starts in the fall, but if they aren't she is gong to be devastated. My preschooler on the other hand seems to vastly prefer being home vs. going to school, but I think that half day of social interaction, that she is missing out on now, was really good for her development.

I feel your pain, and hers too. Some of my kiddos' teachers are trying to soften the blow by gently holding out hope that a few end-of-year things might be salvaged, but we all know that's not going to happen. I think they're just trying to engage them any way they can, which I understand.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: CodingHare on April 15, 2020, 11:06:18 AM
@CodingHare - I went to public school my whole life and didn't really develop the social skills until well into my 20's. And I don't recall any time when I was away from school for a super long time for any reason.

Whereas my public schooled husband is still friends with his best friend from middle school and several people from college.  It truly is individual.  For me the absence of kids my own age was a direct cause of my lack of social skills--I was very outgoing when I was younger and my parents made an effort to go to homeschooling coops.  In any case, we're both proof that you can get there in the end.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on April 15, 2020, 11:34:28 AM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

I agree there are no easy answers. However, am I the only one that thinks that no matter what health people say, schools will be opened up for next school year? They go hand in hand with bringing America back up into some semblance of production functionality. Are there really that many childless Americans or Americans that can see themselves surviving on one parent's income? Technically, we can probably as a nation do without many of the service industries, but there's still a lot of things that are in some way produced in America and a lot of jobs that need people physically at them. I have no idea how where to start to do the math on what is actually required, but I can't see schools/day cares shut down outside of the short term.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on April 15, 2020, 12:07:28 PM
I agree there are no easy answers. However, am I the only one that thinks that no matter what health people say, schools will be opened up for next school year? They go hand in hand with bringing America back up into some semblance of production functionality. Are there really that many childless Americans or Americans that can see themselves surviving on one parent's income? Technically, we can probably as a nation do without many of the service industries, but there's still a lot of things that are in some way produced in America and a lot of jobs that need people physically at them. I have no idea how where to start to do the math on what is actually required, but I can't see schools/day cares shut down outside of the short term.

I think the short answer to your question is yes.

About 3/4ths of american households don't have any children living in them (including single person households, married couples without children, and people with adult children).

For the remaining 25% about 1/3 were married couples where only one person works outside the household to begin with.

Some additional number of households among the remaining 16% or so have either children too young to be in school or old enough that they can be trusted home alone (and maybe even watch younger siblings). I couldn't find good numbers for this. Figure 13+ can stay home alone, and once you have at least one teenage at home they could watch younger siblings during the day.

So hand wavey, back of the envelope number, I'd call it about one in ten households that are having to figure out alternative child care arrangements because schools are shutdown. Which is still a lot of people, but I don't think it's enough to drive policy decisions.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: phildonnia on April 15, 2020, 12:53:54 PM
Here are some things I think aren't coming back:


Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: startingsmall on April 15, 2020, 01:05:17 PM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

My daughter is starting high school next year too. She has been really good about the transition to learning at home, but she does not like it. In her mind things will be back to normal by the time school starts in the fall, but if they aren't she is gong to be devastated. My preschooler on the other hand seems to vastly prefer being home vs. going to school, but I think that half day of social interaction, that she is missing out on now, was really good for her development.

My daughter (currently in 2nd grade) is begging me to continue long-term homeschooling. I've admittedly considered it before... she gets a lot of positive socialization through church and extracurricular activities, while 2nd grade socialization feels like nothing but Lord of the Flies style free-for-alls and bullying. She was coming home from school in tears almost every day and it has been SO nice not to have that drama... she has definitely been much happier since being home.

I feel like it's almost unimaginable that schools won't open in the fall. I can't see people going for that. But will going to school in the fall be a GOOD idea? Probably not. I'm really considering homeschool or some sort of online program for next year. I haven't started researching it yet, but I guess I probably should.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: ketchup on April 15, 2020, 01:57:09 PM
  • Zombie movies We're sick of thinking about worldwide contagions and the dangers that lurk outside.  It's getting tedious. This trope is dead.
This one I'll disagree with.  I recently read World War Z only because of the pandemic, and every time in the past two months I've looked on JustWatch, Contagion (2010) is trending.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: frugalnacho on April 15, 2020, 02:00:47 PM
Here are some things I think aren't coming back:

  • Zombie movies We're sick of thinking about worldwide contagions and the dangers that lurk outside.  It's getting tedious. This trope is dead.

I've been watching those type of movies lately.  My life is largely still normal since I'm essential and still go to work, so it's not like I have a bunch of free time to sit around watching netflix like so many others are doing, but I am putting these movies into my queue and watching them when I have a chance.  I recently watched outbreak and contagion.  I have plans to watch pandemic, the stand, and I am legend.  I've already seen a lot of movies in the zombie genre, and I certainly hope it's not going away.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Plina on April 15, 2020, 02:11:27 PM
Here are some things I think aren't coming back:

  • Movie Theaters.  Movie theaters were already on the ropes, since so many people have home entertainment systems that are at least comparable in sound and picture quality, but allow you to pause to use the restroom or get more snacks, and don't cost $12 per showing.  Movie theaters were the first thing to be shut down for COVID, and they'll likely be the last to come back, if at all.
  • Full-service banking. I've been inside a bank branch exactly once in the last year, and that was because f***g Chase Bank won't let you open their bonus-paying account online.  While I was there, I saw the segment of humanity that still values that human touch, and expects velvet ropes, complementary coffee, and chatty tellers.  Now, I literally get an email every day from my various banks encouraging me to discover all that their website has to offer.  I can assume that those other people are getting these too, and will start to make that mental shift to fully online banking.
  • Paper Money Yesterday, I took a ten-dollar bill to the Taco Bell drive through, and I watched as the person in front of me paid with a credit card without ever actually touching the reader.  And then I came up with my filthy scrap of paper, and was given three more filthy scraps of paper in change.  I don't know where they came from, or who else might have sneezed all over them before me, but next time I'm bringing the plastic.  And so is everyone else.  There is almost nothing that requires Federal Reserve Notes any more.
  • The Office The stay-at-home orders were just the push we needed to force everyone into permanent tele-commuting.  Amid all the gripes about the distractions at home, you're not hearing just how wonderful it is not to spend an hour in the car each day.  And, you're also not hearing the businesses, as they wonder: If we're being just as productive, why the hell are we paying rent on this building, with all its electricity, window-washing, janitors, and toilet paper stock?
  • Zombie movies We're sick of thinking about worldwide contagions and the dangers that lurk outside.  It's getting tedious. This trope is dead.
  • Bulk Food I love the price; I love the variety.  But they're not bringing it back unless they can guarantee perfect sterility, which they can't.
  • Mega-cruise-ships Cruises in general will survive.  I plan to book one immediately when cruises return with discount rates.  But I never understood the appeal of bigger and bigger ships.  COVID was not even the first time that a plague has swept through these multi-thousand-passenger floating cities, which seem designed for disease transmission.  Look for a return of smaller, less Disney-esque ships with employee servers at the buffet.
  • Sick kids at school Elementary and secondary school will remain an in-person activity.  Let's face it, learning is a side-benefit to the school's primary purpose of watching your kids all day.  Even with working from home, it's nice to have a major government department watching your kids while you try to get something done..  Previously, there was an unspoken agreement that you can send your kid to school sick, but in return, I get to send my kid to school sick.  We'll all get sick, but that's the bargain.  Well, no more.  There will be new school policies that any cough or sniffle is a trip to the nurse, and a call home. 

I don’t see bulk food dissapearing. There is no such thing as totally sterile food. It would mean that all vegetabled and fruits, except the frozen, would need to disappear. Not to mention food buffets.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on April 15, 2020, 02:28:52 PM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

My daughter is starting high school next year too. She has been really good about the transition to learning at home, but she does not like it. In her mind things will be back to normal by the time school starts in the fall, but if they aren't she is gong to be devastated. My preschooler on the other hand seems to vastly prefer being home vs. going to school, but I think that half day of social interaction, that she is missing out on now, was really good for her development.
Same.  My son starts high school next year.  I think he probably thinks it would be fine to do the at home thing like we are currently doing.  But I think it would be an absolute shit-show to attempt all the advanced classes that way.   Right now, he's fine, because the teachers are (rightfully) phoning it in, a bit.  Many of them also have children at home, they are on a weird, reduced schedule.  A good % of kids don't have internet access yet.  So his math compaction class will NOT get through the amount that he would have normally.

I do think schools might not start up like we expect.  My son is VERY motivated by: challenging teachers and by: getting better grades than everyone else.  I think distance learning will muck that up.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mm1970 on April 15, 2020, 02:38:07 PM
I agree there are no easy answers. However, am I the only one that thinks that no matter what health people say, schools will be opened up for next school year? They go hand in hand with bringing America back up into some semblance of production functionality. Are there really that many childless Americans or Americans that can see themselves surviving on one parent's income? Technically, we can probably as a nation do without many of the service industries, but there's still a lot of things that are in some way produced in America and a lot of jobs that need people physically at them. I have no idea how where to start to do the math on what is actually required, but I can't see schools/day cares shut down outside of the short term.

I think the short answer to your question is yes.

About 3/4ths of american households don't have any children living in them (including single person households, married couples without children, and people with adult children).

For the remaining 25% about 1/3 were married couples where only one person works outside the household to begin with.

Some additional number of households among the remaining 16% or so have either children too young to be in school or old enough that they can be trusted home alone (and maybe even watch younger siblings). I couldn't find good numbers for this. Figure 13+ can stay home alone, and once you have at least one teenage at home they could watch younger siblings during the day.

So hand wavey, back of the envelope number, I'd call it about one in ten households that are having to figure out alternative child care arrangements because schools are shutdown. Which is still a lot of people, but I don't think it's enough to drive policy decisions.
My googling found data from 2016 that suggests that 40% of all households have children, and 61% of those have two working parents.  That means we are closer to 25% of the population needing alternative care arrangements. That's significant.

You cannot just say "well, there's an older teen".  Sure, our 14 yo can babysit his 7 yo brother for a few hours but we are NOT talking about child minding, we are talking about SCHOOLING.  Both kids need to be getting educated, simultaneously.  The teen can't get his schooling done and teach his 2nd grade brother.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: renata ricotta on April 15, 2020, 02:52:51 PM
Here are some things I think aren't coming back:

  • Movie Theaters.  Movie theaters were already on the ropes, since so many people have home entertainment systems that are at least comparable in sound and picture quality, but allow you to pause to use the restroom or get more snacks, and don't cost $12 per showing.  Movie theaters were the first thing to be shut down for COVID, and they'll likely be the last to come back, if at all.
  • Full-service banking. I've been inside a bank branch exactly once in the last year, and that was because f***g Chase Bank won't let you open their bonus-paying account online.  While I was there, I saw the segment of humanity that still values that human touch, and expects velvet ropes, complementary coffee, and chatty tellers.  Now, I literally get an email every day from my various banks encouraging me to discover all that their website has to offer.  I can assume that those other people are getting these too, and will start to make that mental shift to fully online banking.
  • Paper Money Yesterday, I took a ten-dollar bill to the Taco Bell drive through, and I watched as the person in front of me paid with a credit card without ever actually touching the reader.  And then I came up with my filthy scrap of paper, and was given three more filthy scraps of paper in change.  I don't know where they came from, or who else might have sneezed all over them before me, but next time I'm bringing the plastic.  And so is everyone else.  There is almost nothing that requires Federal Reserve Notes any more.
  • The Office The stay-at-home orders were just the push we needed to force everyone into permanent tele-commuting.  Amid all the gripes about the distractions at home, you're not hearing just how wonderful it is not to spend an hour in the car each day.  And, you're also not hearing the businesses, as they wonder: If we're being just as productive, why the hell are we paying rent on this building, with all its electricity, window-washing, janitors, and toilet paper stock?
  • Zombie movies We're sick of thinking about worldwide contagions and the dangers that lurk outside.  It's getting tedious. This trope is dead.
  • Bulk Food I love the price; I love the variety.  But they're not bringing it back unless they can guarantee perfect sterility, which they can't.
  • Mega-cruise-ships Cruises in general will survive.  I plan to book one immediately when cruises return with discount rates.  But I never understood the appeal of bigger and bigger ships.  COVID was not even the first time that a plague has swept through these multi-thousand-passenger floating cities, which seem designed for disease transmission.  Look for a return of smaller, less Disney-esque ships with employee servers at the buffet.
  • Sick kids at school Elementary and secondary school will remain an in-person activity.  Let's face it, learning is a side-benefit to the school's primary purpose of watching your kids all day.  Even with working from home, it's nice to have a major government department watching your kids while you try to get something done..  Previously, there was an unspoken agreement that you can send your kid to school sick, but in return, I get to send my kid to school sick.  We'll all get sick, but that's the bargain.  Well, no more.  There will be new school policies that any cough or sniffle is a trip to the nurse, and a call home. 

I don’t see bulk food dissapearing. There is no such thing as totally sterile food. It would mean that all vegetabled and fruits, except the frozen, would need to disappear. Not to mention food buffets.

Yeah I agree, I'm not following this one. Why would the bulk food section be any more or less difficult to sterilize than anything else in the grocery store?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: maizefolk on April 15, 2020, 03:48:02 PM
I agree there are no easy answers. However, am I the only one that thinks that no matter what health people say, schools will be opened up for next school year? They go hand in hand with bringing America back up into some semblance of production functionality. Are there really that many childless Americans or Americans that can see themselves surviving on one parent's income? Technically, we can probably as a nation do without many of the service industries, but there's still a lot of things that are in some way produced in America and a lot of jobs that need people physically at them. I have no idea how where to start to do the math on what is actually required, but I can't see schools/day cares shut down outside of the short term.

I think the short answer to your question is yes.

About 3/4ths of american households don't have any children living in them (including single person households, married couples without children, and people with adult children).

For the remaining 25% about 1/3 were married couples where only one person works outside the household to begin with.

Some additional number of households among the remaining 16% or so have either children too young to be in school or old enough that they can be trusted home alone (and maybe even watch younger siblings). I couldn't find good numbers for this. Figure 13+ can stay home alone, and once you have at least one teenage at home they could watch younger siblings during the day.

So hand wavey, back of the envelope number, I'd call it about one in ten households that are having to figure out alternative child care arrangements because schools are shutdown. Which is still a lot of people, but I don't think it's enough to drive policy decisions.
My googling found data from 2016 that suggests that 40% of all households have children, and 61% of those have two working parents.  That means we are closer to 25% of the population needing alternative care arrangements. That's significant.

You cannot just say "well, there's an older teen".  Sure, our 14 yo can babysit his 7 yo brother for a few hours but we are NOT talking about child minding, we are talking about SCHOOLING.  Both kids need to be getting educated, simultaneously.  The teen can't get his schooling done and teach his 2nd grade brother.

I think you're looking at the "percentage of all family households in the United States had children under age 18 living in the household." That's about 40%, but there are lots of households which don't count as family households (i.e. single adults) which is what brings the overall percentage down to 25% before we even start looking at households with kids where only one parent works to begin with.

I agree with the threshold is ongoing education rather than children are safe and supervised being babysit during the day by an older sibling isn't going to cut it. From what I've heard though, that's a standard we're already not meeting in a lot of states. Folks in my home town as being specifically told not to cover new material with their children (although they are welcome to review past material) because it would give those kids an unfair advantage over those whose parents aren't able to teach them during the school shutdown. Seems crazy to me.

Shall we say 10% of households if the threshold is "safe and supervised" and 16% if the threshold is "ongoing and effective remote education"?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 15, 2020, 03:53:30 PM
Here are some things I think aren't coming back:

  • Movie Theaters.  Movie theaters were already on the ropes, since so many people have home entertainment systems that are at least comparable in sound and picture quality, but allow you to pause to use the restroom or get more snacks, and don't cost $12 per showing.  Movie theaters were the first thing to be shut down for COVID, and they'll likely be the last to come back, if at all.
  • Full-service banking. I've been inside a bank branch exactly once in the last year, and that was because f***g Chase Bank won't let you open their bonus-paying account online.  While I was there, I saw the segment of humanity that still values that human touch, and expects velvet ropes, complementary coffee, and chatty tellers.  Now, I literally get an email every day from my various banks encouraging me to discover all that their website has to offer.  I can assume that those other people are getting these too, and will start to make that mental shift to fully online banking.
  • Paper Money Yesterday, I took a ten-dollar bill to the Taco Bell drive through, and I watched as the person in front of me paid with a credit card without ever actually touching the reader.  And then I came up with my filthy scrap of paper, and was given three more filthy scraps of paper in change.  I don't know where they came from, or who else might have sneezed all over them before me, but next time I'm bringing the plastic.  And so is everyone else.  There is almost nothing that requires Federal Reserve Notes any more.
  • The Office The stay-at-home orders were just the push we needed to force everyone into permanent tele-commuting.  Amid all the gripes about the distractions at home, you're not hearing just how wonderful it is not to spend an hour in the car each day.  And, you're also not hearing the businesses, as they wonder: If we're being just as productive, why the hell are we paying rent on this building, with all its electricity, window-washing, janitors, and toilet paper stock?
  • Zombie movies We're sick of thinking about worldwide contagions and the dangers that lurk outside.  It's getting tedious. This trope is dead.
  • Bulk Food I love the price; I love the variety.  But they're not bringing it back unless they can guarantee perfect sterility, which they can't.
  • Mega-cruise-ships Cruises in general will survive.  I plan to book one immediately when cruises return with discount rates.  But I never understood the appeal of bigger and bigger ships.  COVID was not even the first time that a plague has swept through these multi-thousand-passenger floating cities, which seem designed for disease transmission.  Look for a return of smaller, less Disney-esque ships with employee servers at the buffet.
  • Sick kids at school Elementary and secondary school will remain an in-person activity.  Let's face it, learning is a side-benefit to the school's primary purpose of watching your kids all day.  Even with working from home, it's nice to have a major government department watching your kids while you try to get something done..  Previously, there was an unspoken agreement that you can send your kid to school sick, but in return, I get to send my kid to school sick.  We'll all get sick, but that's the bargain.  Well, no more.  There will be new school policies that any cough or sniffle is a trip to the nurse, and a call home. 

I don’t see bulk food dissapearing. There is no such thing as totally sterile food. It would mean that all vegetabled and fruits, except the frozen, would need to disappear. Not to mention food buffets.

Yeah I agree, I'm not following this one. Why would the bulk food section be any more or less difficult to sterilize than anything else in the grocery store?

I could see greater restrictions on who can access the bulk food containers. Like, all of them would be behind a barrier of some sort, and an employee would have to measure out what customers wanted. Honestly, I'd consider that an improvement. I've heard enough stories about people sticking bare hands into bulk bins to be grossed out, and I'm not particularly squeamish.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: simonsez on April 15, 2020, 04:05:10 PM
I could see greater restrictions on who can access the bulk food containers. Like, all of them would be behind a barrier of some sort, and an employee would have to measure out what customers wanted. Honestly, I'd consider that an improvement. I've heard enough stories about people sticking bare hands into bulk bins to be grossed out, and I'm not particularly squeamish.
I think there are low tech solutions for this.  The grocery store we go to has the "gravity turnstile" containers for the bulk section.  No one's grubby hands touch your food before you (other than the employee filling the containers to begin with) but I guess if someone wanted to be nefarious they could put germs at the bottom part of the chute. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Metalcat on April 15, 2020, 04:45:08 PM
Here are some things I think aren't coming back:

  • Movie Theaters.  Movie theaters were already on the ropes, since so many people have home entertainment systems that are at least comparable in sound and picture quality, but allow you to pause to use the restroom or get more snacks, and don't cost $12 per showing.  Movie theaters were the first thing to be shut down for COVID, and they'll likely be the last to come back, if at all.
  • Full-service banking. I've been inside a bank branch exactly once in the last year, and that was because f***g Chase Bank won't let you open their bonus-paying account online.  While I was there, I saw the segment of humanity that still values that human touch, and expects velvet ropes, complementary coffee, and chatty tellers.  Now, I literally get an email every day from my various banks encouraging me to discover all that their website has to offer.  I can assume that those other people are getting these too, and will start to make that mental shift to fully online banking.
  • Paper Money Yesterday, I took a ten-dollar bill to the Taco Bell drive through, and I watched as the person in front of me paid with a credit card without ever actually touching the reader.  And then I came up with my filthy scrap of paper, and was given three more filthy scraps of paper in change.  I don't know where they came from, or who else might have sneezed all over them before me, but next time I'm bringing the plastic.  And so is everyone else.  There is almost nothing that requires Federal Reserve Notes any more.
  • The Office The stay-at-home orders were just the push we needed to force everyone into permanent tele-commuting.  Amid all the gripes about the distractions at home, you're not hearing just how wonderful it is not to spend an hour in the car each day.  And, you're also not hearing the businesses, as they wonder: If we're being just as productive, why the hell are we paying rent on this building, with all its electricity, window-washing, janitors, and toilet paper stock?
  • Zombie movies We're sick of thinking about worldwide contagions and the dangers that lurk outside.  It's getting tedious. This trope is dead.
  • Bulk Food I love the price; I love the variety.  But they're not bringing it back unless they can guarantee perfect sterility, which they can't.
  • Mega-cruise-ships Cruises in general will survive.  I plan to book one immediately when cruises return with discount rates.  But I never understood the appeal of bigger and bigger ships.  COVID was not even the first time that a plague has swept through these multi-thousand-passenger floating cities, which seem designed for disease transmission.  Look for a return of smaller, less Disney-esque ships with employee servers at the buffet.
  • Sick kids at school Elementary and secondary school will remain an in-person activity.  Let's face it, learning is a side-benefit to the school's primary purpose of watching your kids all day.  Even with working from home, it's nice to have a major government department watching your kids while you try to get something done..  Previously, there was an unspoken agreement that you can send your kid to school sick, but in return, I get to send my kid to school sick.  We'll all get sick, but that's the bargain.  Well, no more.  There will be new school policies that any cough or sniffle is a trip to the nurse, and a call home. 

I don’t see bulk food dissapearing. There is no such thing as totally sterile food. It would mean that all vegetabled and fruits, except the frozen, would need to disappear. Not to mention food buffets.

Yeah I agree, I'm not following this one. Why would the bulk food section be any more or less difficult to sterilize than anything else in the grocery store?

Also, most bulk produce is shelf stable, so very easy to leave alone for a few days in quarantine before using.
I'm still shopping at the bulk store, I just leave everything in the pantry for 72 hrs.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: phildonnia on April 15, 2020, 05:28:42 PM
Yeah I agree, I'm not following this one. Why would the bulk food section be any more or less difficult to sterilize than anything else in the grocery store?

It's probably no more difficult to keep clean than, say, the fresh produce.  But perception will play a big role.  Somehow, it doesn't bother me that someone else has handled all the apples, looking for rotten spots.  But the idea of someone running their hands through the cashews is disgusting.  People will avoid the bulk food, whether that makes sense or not.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FlytilFIRE on April 15, 2020, 05:45:40 PM

Some additional number of households among the remaining 16% or so have either children too young to be in school or old enough that they can be trusted home alone (and maybe even watch younger siblings). I couldn't find good numbers for this. Figure 13+ can stay home alone, and once you have at least one teenage at home they could watch younger siblings during the day.


Mailman,

I'm 62, so perhaps completely out of touch (just ask my SO!). But when I was 10, my 13 yo brother and I swapped babysitting my 2 yo brother all summer long (and we made $5/week, too!). The current situation might encourage many families to engage siblings in care giving roles. Of course the Authorities might then charge the entire family with child abuse/neglect, but I'd like to think not.

Individuals and families are going to have to adjust to the new world. And if they can do it, our communities will get stronger as well. This virus is a wake up call that the nanny state will fail you when you most need it. The individuals, and families, will figure it out.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 15, 2020, 05:46:34 PM
Yeah I agree, I'm not following this one. Why would the bulk food section be any more or less difficult to sterilize than anything else in the grocery store?

It's probably no more difficult to keep clean than, say, the fresh produce.  But perception will play a big role.  Somehow, it doesn't bother me that someone else has handled all the apples, looking for rotten spots.  But the idea of someone running their hands through the cashews is disgusting.  People will avoid the bulk food, whether that makes sense or not.

I wash fresh produce. I don’t generally wash cashews or baking supplies.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on April 16, 2020, 02:51:23 AM
Getting away from the cash/card issue, I think another big issue is education, especially for elementary through high school.

I mean, there's a REAL chance that at least some school districts won't open "as normal" this fall, which could mean continued distance learning or staggered schedules or something else. I mean, how can you claim to be adhering to ANY level of "social distancing" if you cram a 1,000+ kids into a school building all day? There doesn't seem to be much middle ground here. Either they're crammed in the building, or they aren't.

Yes it sucks for working parents, but think about how much it sucks for the kids. I have a kiddo starting high school this year and another starting middle school. Those are big milestones for most kids, and the thought that they will start the new phases by doing work alone at home just makes me sad. No making new friends, no meeting the teachers in a real way, no school activities or sports or assemblies or clubs or anything. That's a real possibility at least for the rest of 2020.

I'm glad we're just taking this a week at a time right now, because if my kids knew the rest of 2020 could look a lot like March and April, that would devastate them.

And then I feel horrible when I think about all the kids who have it so much worse. Kids who depend on school for much more than education: for food, a safe place, role models, etc. If we continue with online education for the rest of 2020, LOTS of kids will absolutely fall SO far behind, it will be staggering.

No easy answers here for school districts.

My daughter is starting high school next year too. She has been really good about the transition to learning at home, but she does not like it. In her mind things will be back to normal by the time school starts in the fall, but if they aren't she is gong to be devastated. My preschooler on the other hand seems to vastly prefer being home vs. going to school, but I think that half day of social interaction, that she is missing out on now, was really good for her development.
Same.  My son starts high school next year.  I think he probably thinks it would be fine to do the at home thing like we are currently doing.  But I think it would be an absolute shit-show to attempt all the advanced classes that way.   Right now, he's fine, because the teachers are (rightfully) phoning it in, a bit.  Many of them also have children at home, they are on a weird, reduced schedule.  A good % of kids don't have internet access yet.  So his math compaction class will NOT get through the amount that he would have normally.

I do think schools might not start up like we expect.  My son is VERY motivated by: challenging teachers and by: getting better grades than everyone else.  I think distance learning will muck that up.

I am a middle school teacher. I will only feel comfortable with returning to school if there is widespread testing, tracing, quarantine rules in place in my state. Even then, it will be uncomfortable and less than ideal. My class sizes are around 30 kids. Shifts of kids coming to school to reduce class sizes may have to come in. There is going to have to be some serious thinking out of the box, and radical adjustments to school until a vaccine is found.

Parents who are anti vaxxers. There will be more push back that if you are not going to vaccinate your kids, then they cannot take part in public education. You keep your choice, but you have to accept the consequences.

This is such a tough time for kids and parents. School is not just a place of learning, it is often a safe haven for those with difficult home lives. I miss my students.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 16, 2020, 07:00:45 AM
In some ways, I think it will be much mentally tougher this summer and this fall (stay with me here)...

Right now, for most of it, there are virtually no options. We stay at home unless working, and we social distance the crap out of everything. It sucks, but the expectations are pretty straightforward. For now.

But what happens let's say in June, when governors start to loosen restrictions a bit? I feel like the real mental anguish will start.

Scenario 1: Your buddy Laura invites to you a cookout at her house in June. There will be 30-40 people there, of all ages, and you won't know 2/3 of them, and you have no idea about their health status, etc. It's a crap shoot.  Do you go? It seems you start getting into utilitarian analysis re: the pleasure you might get from a few hours of eating and socializing in the sun versus the potential harm if even one person contracts the virus or spreads it to one other person. I mean, when you look at that "math," I'm not sure how I could convince myself to expose my wife and kids to that potential harm, but EVERYONE is going to want to go, so saying "no" to things once they "open up again" will start WWIII in many households. And hell, it could even ruin friendships if one friend thinks that it's now fine and expected to "hang out" some while the other thinks that non-essential contact with anyone is a ridiculous risk.

Scenario 2: Schools start back up in August, but there's no vaccine (there won't be), and kids will still be stuffed 25-30 students/per classroom. Only changes are widespread availability of hand sanitizer, more thorough cleanings of building, strict "stay home" orders at any sign of sickness. Would you send your kid? I mean, what analysis do you use? The old "Well, everyone else is doing it, so I guess we will" analysis? Would you be afraid of looking like a lunatic if you pulled your kids? Would pulling your kids mean you have to homeschool them? Do you just cross your fingers and tell yourself that they're young and things will probably be fine?"

Scenario 3: You find out that, by going to a totally unneeded activity, like a cookout or party, you unknowingly spread the virus to someone else, who later dies from it. How do you mentally or emotionally handle that? How do you ever forgive yourself, even if you didn't know you had the virus at the time? If you would have just stayed home, that person wouldn't have died.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: JGS1980 on April 16, 2020, 07:53:02 AM
In some ways, I think it will be much mentally tougher this summer and this fall (stay with me here)...

Right now, for most of it, there are virtually no options. We stay at home unless working, and we social distance the crap out of everything. It sucks, but the expectations are pretty straightforward. For now.

But what happens let's say in June, when governors start to loosen restrictions a bit? I feel like the real mental anguish will start.

Scenario 1: Your buddy Laura invites to you a cookout at her house in June. There will be 30-40 people there, of all ages, and you won't know 2/3 of them, and you have no idea about their health status, etc. It's a crap shoot.  Do you go? It seems you start getting into utilitarian analysis re: the pleasure you might get from a few hours of eating and socializing in the sun versus the potential harm if even one person contracts the virus or spreads it to one other person. I mean, when you look at that "math," I'm not sure how I could convince myself to expose my wife and kids to that potential harm, but EVERYONE is going to want to go, so saying "no" to things once they "open up again" will start WWIII in many households. And hell, it could even ruin friendships if one friend thinks that it's now fine and expected to "hang out" some while the other thinks that non-essential contact with anyone is a ridiculous risk.

Scenario 2: Schools start back up in August, but there's no vaccine (there won't be), and kids will still be stuffed 25-30 students/per classroom. Only changes are widespread availability of hand sanitizer, more thorough cleanings of building, strict "stay home" orders at any sign of sickness. Would you send your kid? I mean, what analysis do you use? The old "Well, everyone else is doing it, so I guess we will" analysis? Would you be afraid of looking like a lunatic if you pulled your kids? Would pulling your kids mean you have to homeschool them? Do you just cross your fingers and tell yourself that they're young and things will probably be fine?"

Scenario 3: You find out that, by going to a totally unneeded activity, like a cookout or party, you unknowingly spread the virus to someone else, who later dies from it. How do you mentally or emotionally handle that? How do you ever forgive yourself, even if you didn't know you had the virus at the time? If you would have just stayed home, that person wouldn't have died.

Great post Nick Miller.

How would I handle these 3 scenarios? We are in our 30's and have school aged kids.

First, I would assume we have reached ZERO [less than 5?] cases of Covid in our county at the time.

Scenario 1: Me and my family will refuse to go to a party with 30-40 people, most of them strangers.
We will, however, have 1-2 families over for dinner/cookout/drinks on the porch with play time for the kids.

Scenario 2: Assuming no cases locally, I would send my kids back to school.

Scenario 3: Will be avoided hopefully by limiting my social circle, avoiding crowds, and good old luck.

Of course all these scenarios are VERY individualized, if someone in my home were very high risk, all my decisions would change accordingly.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: T-Money$ on April 16, 2020, 08:07:39 AM
I don't think life will change very much in the longer term.  Not only is the current situation economically unsustainable, but it is depressing for a whole lot of people.  Many I'm close to want to go back living the way they were before, they realize correctly there is not a significant risk from the virus for the overwhelming majority of people.  There are things to be worried about, but COVID-19 ain't it.

As the virus spreads (which it will), if it behaves like other coronaviruses there will at the very least be short-term adaptive immunity with the overwhelming majority of those infected and it will likely mutate to something that is even less lethal than it is now.  Basically, the virus won't be as lethal, there will be at least some immunity in circulation and it won't be able to spread as fast. 

It's great there is so much effort towards a vaccine, but much like the flu vaccine I think it may be more of a psychological placebo than anything else. 

It seems unlikely society will be so fearful indefinitely, fear and insecurity are draining.  As more of the economy gets open (which seems to be happening in Europe first) and there aren't catastrophic consequences, life will mainly go back to the way it was.  It will take some time, for sure. 

Those that aren't good at assessing risk will direct their Chicken Little syndrome to the next flavor (child predators, terrorists, immigrants, the Flying Spaghetti Monster, etc.).

Or perhaps we are all going to die...who knows.  Time to go to the park without my mask on.  L8TR.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: former player on April 16, 2020, 09:49:44 AM

As the virus spreads (which it will), if it behaves like other coronaviruses there will at the very least be short-term adaptive immunity with the overwhelming majority of those infected and it will likely mutate to something that is even less lethal than it is now. 

Basically, the virus won't be as lethal, there will be at least some immunity in circulation and it won't be able to spread as fast. 

Can you explain these two statements for me?  On the first statement I would understand how lethal a virus is by what percentage of people who catch it are likely to die - ie the number of deaths out of number infected, and for the virus to become less lethal then either the virus has to evolve to become less deadly or the human population has to evolve to become more resistant.  If you are proposing the evolution answer to the virus what is the timeline for that?

On the second statement you seem to be saying that immunity means the virus won't be able to spread as fast.  By "immunity" I can see that the more people who have had the virus and therefore become immune (although I think the science isn't settled on this yet?) the less it will spread.  But taken with your first sentence you also seem to be proposing immunity through evolution, which I would like to think would happen within my natural lifespan but is there any science to say this could happen?

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 16, 2020, 10:36:10 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/coronavirus-pandemic-new-normal/index.html

Here's an interesting post analyzing some of the ideas we've expressed in this thread.

I guess I could see kids going to the school building on like a split 50/50 basis, to focus on group work, instruction, summative assessments, etc., and then performing a lot of the normal/re-enforcement work at home or through online lessons and programs. It would mitigate exposure if you only had 50% of the normal amount of students in the building, and it could give the kids the much-needed social interactions to strengthen their mental health.

But then you'd still have the issue of who watches the kiddos on "off days." And could school districts realistically handle this setup? You'd still need your full fleet of buses everyday (unless the staggering was geographically-based) and teachers could be pulled in both directions in an already very challenging field.

It seems like the one thing most everyone agrees on is no huge gatherings for the rest of the year. It will be interesting to see if MLB or other sports could make it work economically with no asses in the seats for 2020.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LifeHappens on April 16, 2020, 12:00:36 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/coronavirus-pandemic-new-normal/index.html

Here's an interesting post analyzing some of the ideas we've expressed in this thread.

I guess I could see kids going to the school building on like a split 50/50 basis, to focus on group work, instruction, summative assessments, etc., and then performing a lot of the normal/re-enforcement work at home or through online lessons and programs. It would mitigate exposure if you only had 50% of the normal amount of students in the building, and it could give the kids the much-needed social interactions to strengthen their mental health.

But then you'd still have the issue of who watches the kiddos on "off days." And could school districts realistically handle this setup? You'd still need your full fleet of buses everyday (unless the staggering was geographically-based) and teachers could be pulled in both directions in an already very challenging field.

It seems like the one thing most everyone agrees on is no huge gatherings for the rest of the year. It will be interesting to see if MLB or other sports could make it work economically with no asses in the seats for 2020.
I went to school in a district that did a split schedule because of building overcrowding. It didn't affect my class year, but the years before me had what were essentially long 1/2 days every day. Some students were in class from 7am-12pm and others from 12pm to 5pm. A setup like that could actually work fine with a combo of before/after care offsite and time at school.

Pro sports is going to be interesting. I'm a Sportsball fan and it's something I miss. Most teams make enough revenue off TV revenue to keep going, so I could see games played in empty venues as a solution. The bigger challenge, I think, will be keeping the players and their families healthy. Rich 20-somethings aren't exactly known for their common sense and good public health practices!
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Villanelle on April 16, 2020, 12:12:26 PM
In some ways, I think it will be much mentally tougher this summer and this fall (stay with me here)...

Right now, for most of it, there are virtually no options. We stay at home unless working, and we social distance the crap out of everything. It sucks, but the expectations are pretty straightforward. For now.

But what happens let's say in June, when governors start to loosen restrictions a bit? I feel like the real mental anguish will start.

Scenario 1: Your buddy Laura invites to you a cookout at her house in June. There will be 30-40 people there, of all ages, and you won't know 2/3 of them, and you have no idea about their health status, etc. It's a crap shoot.  Do you go? It seems you start getting into utilitarian analysis re: the pleasure you might get from a few hours of eating and socializing in the sun versus the potential harm if even one person contracts the virus or spreads it to one other person. I mean, when you look at that "math," I'm not sure how I could convince myself to expose my wife and kids to that potential harm, but EVERYONE is going to want to go, so saying "no" to things once they "open up again" will start WWIII in many households. And hell, it could even ruin friendships if one friend thinks that it's now fine and expected to "hang out" some while the other thinks that non-essential contact with anyone is a ridiculous risk.

Scenario 2: Schools start back up in August, but there's no vaccine (there won't be), and kids will still be stuffed 25-30 students/per classroom. Only changes are widespread availability of hand sanitizer, more thorough cleanings of building, strict "stay home" orders at any sign of sickness. Would you send your kid? I mean, what analysis do you use? The old "Well, everyone else is doing it, so I guess we will" analysis? Would you be afraid of looking like a lunatic if you pulled your kids? Would pulling your kids mean you have to homeschool them? Do you just cross your fingers and tell yourself that they're young and things will probably be fine?"

Scenario 3: You find out that, by going to a totally unneeded activity, like a cookout or party, you unknowingly spread the virus to someone else, who later dies from it. How do you mentally or emotionally handle that? How do you ever forgive yourself, even if you didn't know you had the virus at the time? If you would have just stayed home, that person wouldn't have died.

Spot on.  I've already given a lot of thought to #1.  While all my friends are social distancing, I'm the most intense about it (haven't left my house in nearly 5 weeks) and I started earliest.  I suspect our differences will be reflected when things are loosened up, and I can see scenarios where they feel judged for choosing to go out if I say I'm not going to go to X event, and I will feel judged for choosing to continue to be "extreme". 

My parents are getting squirrely as well.  Last night during our weekly Skype happy hour, they mentioned how excited they are to come visit in September, something that has been a loose plan for about a year.  It's going to be really awkward and difficult if I end up wanting to try to tell them not to come.  I think that as older people, their calculus on things is probably different than mine.  I respect that, but I also want to keep them (and my household, too) as safe as possible.  And if they come, I doubt they are going to be willing to just sit in our house. 

As for as school splitting, which it could work and provide at least a bit more safety, if we are asking teachers to put in even more hours, we are going to need to pay them more.  Extending their school day by 3 hours, in addition to all the other work they do, isn't going to fly unless they are paid more.  Even then, many of them rely on keeping roughly the same hours as their school aged children so they don't pay for childcare, which wouldn't work if they work from 7-530p and their kids go to school from 730 to 1230. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: startingsmall on April 16, 2020, 02:39:39 PM
Scenario 1: Your buddy Laura invites to you a cookout at her house in June. There will be 30-40 people there, of all ages, and you won't know 2/3 of them, and you have no idea about their health status, etc. It's a crap shoot.  Do you go? It seems you start getting into utilitarian analysis re: the pleasure you might get from a few hours of eating and socializing in the sun versus the potential harm if even one person contracts the virus or spreads it to one other person. I mean, when you look at that "math," I'm not sure how I could convince myself to expose my wife and kids to that potential harm, but EVERYONE is going to want to go, so saying "no" to things once they "open up again" will start WWIII in many households. And hell, it could even ruin friendships if one friend thinks that it's now fine and expected to "hang out" some while the other thinks that non-essential contact with anyone is a ridiculous risk.

Scenario 2: Schools start back up in August, but there's no vaccine (there won't be), and kids will still be stuffed 25-30 students/per classroom. Only changes are widespread availability of hand sanitizer, more thorough cleanings of building, strict "stay home" orders at any sign of sickness. Would you send your kid? I mean, what analysis do you use? The old "Well, everyone else is doing it, so I guess we will" analysis? Would you be afraid of looking like a lunatic if you pulled your kids? Would pulling your kids mean you have to homeschool them? Do you just cross your fingers and tell yourself that they're young and things will probably be fine?"

Scenario 3: You find out that, by going to a totally unneeded activity, like a cookout or party, you unknowingly spread the virus to someone else, who later dies from it. How do you mentally or emotionally handle that? How do you ever forgive yourself, even if you didn't know you had the virus at the time? If you would have just stayed home, that person wouldn't have died.

I'm starting to give some serious consideration to the issue of school in the fall. Obviously, a lot could change between now and then (for better OR for worse!), but I don't trust my local community to make the same risk assessments that I would. Our governor so far has been very reasonable, but he's getting a lot of pushback and if he leaves decisions to the counties we're screwed. (My county still has a lot of coronavirus deniers, probably because FOX News is our community's primary info source). I can definitely envision a scenario in which my husband and I opt for either homeschool or online schooling for our daughter for next year. We've considered homeschooling in the past and always decided against it, but reopening the schools with continued transmission in our area might tip the scale for us.

The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: 2Cent on April 16, 2020, 03:28:14 PM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: former player on April 16, 2020, 03:37:51 PM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.
Also, meetings without singing, because all that deep breathing and projecting sound is likely to have much the same effect in spreading exhalations as coughing.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: mancityfan on April 16, 2020, 04:29:02 PM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.
Also, meetings without singing, because all that deep breathing and projecting sound is likely to have much the same effect in spreading exhalations as coughing.

Was there not a case of a church choir that continued to sing and rehearse a few weeks back, and many of them got infected?
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 16, 2020, 04:31:12 PM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.
Also, meetings without singing, because all that deep breathing and projecting sound is likely to have much the same effect in spreading exhalations as coughing.

Was there not a case of a church choir that continued to sing and rehearse a few weeks back, and many of them got infected?

Yes. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak)
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: startingsmall on April 16, 2020, 05:16:32 PM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.

We definitely don't have enough younger members to support contemporary music... we're strictly an old-timey choir church.

What we'll need to do is come up with a way to artificially separate people in 2 or 3 separate services (our sanctuary is small) and figure out how to do just a small ensemble instead of the choir.

There are options, but I don't know how well-received they will be. Our church is very focused on their history and resists change. It's a small country church and there's definitely a potential for conflict. Hopefully not, but my husband & I are both a little nervous.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 17, 2020, 01:50:54 AM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.

WTF? What a weird thing to say. In my experience it's the middle aged people who are all about guitars, whereas the young adults and proper oldies like a normal choir. I guess that's not what you meant...?

There were calls to have more services before the churches closed, though, so you'd have fewer at each service. I don't know if there could be some way of allocating people to a service? Otherwise I think most people would just come at their regular time, rather than to one of the extra times. I know we picked our usual mass time for a lot of reasons (mostly toddler-related) which would be hard to change on a dime.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Cranky on April 17, 2020, 04:46:36 AM
And really, for my denomination, the question is going to be - when is communion safe? And if we all line up for that, does it really matter how many people are there?

At any rate, if I don’t feel safe at the grocery store, I won’t feel safe anywhere else.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FlytilFIRE on April 17, 2020, 06:57:33 AM
The most reasonable approach to services, IMHO, would be a series of abbreviated gatherings. First would be the elderly members (I assume they'd probably be awake earlier. I know I and my parents are). Then however many it takes to maintain distancing for the congregation.

A smaller choir, divvied up for the services, could do the same. Communion isn't an issue with a smaller service. Very easy to maintain distance.

I just read somewhere that social distancing might be the norm until a vaccine comes out. That's a year from now. So, time to experiment with what works, and what doesn't....
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: startingsmall on April 17, 2020, 07:15:40 AM
The most reasonable approach to services, IMHO, would be a series of abbreviated gatherings. First would be the elderly members (I assume they'd probably be awake earlier. I know I and my parents are). Then however many it takes to maintain distancing for the congregation.

A smaller choir, divvied up for the services, could do the same. Communion isn't an issue with a smaller service. Very easy to maintain distance.

I just read somewhere that social distancing might be the norm until a vaccine comes out. That's a year from now. So, time to experiment with what works, and what doesn't....

While that's all totally reasonable in theory, it's going to be a challenge in reality. We have roughly 90 members that are 80+, 20 that are 65-80, and maybe 20-30 members  <65 yrs old (including kids). Further complicating things, all of the younger people have older family members because our church is basically multiple generations that can all be traced back to just a few great-grandparents. (Our church likes to jokingly brag that everyone is related. We have exactly one couple and one individual who are not related to other members. Plus husband/me/kiddo.)

So, realistically, we'd have to divide it by family, not age. Given the size of our sanctuary and choir loft, we'd probably need to do AT LEAST three services to allow for appropriate distancing. That means everyone is going to sit in a spot that someone just got out of and that my husband and the pianist are going to be leading services for 3 hrs straight. I hate to be a negative Nancy, but it's just hard to see how it will work out without arguments and division in our setting. Our church has fired pastors over much smaller inconveniences in the past.

In my mind, it would be ideal to divide into 3-4 smaller groups. Each week, one group attends the "live" service while the others gather to watch remotely in someone's home. Heck, one group could even meet in our church fellowship hall. That would minimize risk of cross-contamination between groups, allow for a "normal" service (the ones in live church could even use their beloved antique hymnals, since they'd sit for a week before being needed again), and allow weekly fellowship. The church elders (there's at least one in each family) can serve communion. So we may try to present that approach, but I don't know how it will go.

Hopefully we're worried about nothing and everything will go smoothly, one way or the other, but it's going to be difficult to navigate without making the wrong person angry.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Nick_Miller on April 17, 2020, 07:20:10 AM
Another development I will be watching with interest...

Walt Disney World.

I'm not a Disney hater; my family has went twice, and we were planning a fall 2020 trip that is obviously not going to happen.

It looks like Disneyland (in CA) will remain closed for months, but I've read a few articles indicating that WDW (in FL) might reopen sooner than we'd think, perhaps in May.

I don't understand how that is possible. I mean, of all of the upcoming conferences, conventions and concerts I know of have been canceled, even those with June and July dates. And those venues typically hold a few thousand people. Magic Kingdom all by itself has a capacity of around 100,000, and much of that time is spent squished together in lines for rides, but even just walking around it's hard not to constantly brush up against people. Transportation between resorts has lines. The transportation itself squishes people in. Restaurants and gift shops are pretty much always packed.

I guess it's all about money and how crazy policy-makers in FL are? (yes I realized I probably answered my own question). But even if Disney "thinned the herd" by 50% (which I'd doubt they do), and switched to more virtual queues like they are with Galaxy's Edge, how in the hell is anyone supposed to "social distance" to any extent in that environment? Wouldn't they be putting their $15/hr employees in grave danger?

But I can see the Disney folks saying, "You expect us to keep park operations closed for an entire year? We'll lose 2 billion dollars! And we employee thousands of people." And yes, that's a big economic impact. But the whole "theme park model" is just at odds with social distancing.

Anyone want to predict when Walt Disney World opens up? My prediction is June 1st, which I think is WAY too soon, but I'm just reading tea leaves.

Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: startingsmall on April 17, 2020, 07:38:09 AM

Anyone want to predict when Walt Disney World opens up? My prediction is June 1st, which I think is WAY too soon, but I'm just reading tea leaves.

I have a little more faith in Disney. I'll say October.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Jouer on April 17, 2020, 08:29:21 AM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.

We definitely don't have enough younger members to support contemporary music... we're strictly an old-timey choir church.

What we'll need to do is come up with a way to artificially separate people in 2 or 3 separate services (our sanctuary is small) and figure out how to do just a small ensemble instead of the choir.

There are options, but I don't know how well-received they will be. Our church is very focused on their history and resists change. It's a small country church and there's definitely a potential for conflict. Hopefully not, but my husband & I are both a little nervous.

Wouldn't the congregation listen to the pastor? "God wants us to live - He gave us the will to isolate to save our fellow man."
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: shelivesthedream on April 17, 2020, 10:42:48 AM
The most reasonable approach to services, IMHO, would be a series of abbreviated gatherings. First would be the elderly members (I assume they'd probably be awake earlier. I know I and my parents are). Then however many it takes to maintain distancing for the congregation.

A smaller choir, divvied up for the services, could do the same. Communion isn't an issue with a smaller service. Very easy to maintain distance.

I just read somewhere that social distancing might be the norm until a vaccine comes out. That's a year from now. So, time to experiment with what works, and what doesn't....

I'm with startingsmall. A church congregation is a really complicated thing. Imagine if you even had a couple with children, one is 29 and one is 41, and an elderly relative living with them. Which age group do they get to attend? Also, word up for the people with toddlers who are also awake insanely early. And the old people who like to sleep in (my parents). I don't know if our church even has everyone's contact details up to date to start organising dividing it into family groups - and how do you decide who comes when?

Communion is a HUGE issue! The priest puts the host in people's hands or on their tongue, an obvious vector for disease if there's even the slightest touch or breathing. And don't get me started on the chalice!

Congregations are also complicated because everyone has an opinion and thinks theirs is right and people can be really bitchy and entitled about things that aren't to their liking. And the pastor/priest has little standing to tell them to fuck off if they don't like it! We're Catholics and all the churches are closed so we're watching livestreams, but my husband is keen to go back to physical church ASAP with precautions/distancing and I just want to stay faaaaaaar away until it's alllllll over. I don't know how we're going to navigate it if the council of bishops opens churches sooner than I think is OK.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 17, 2020, 10:45:36 AM
In many places, voting will likely be very different this fall. I had a conference call earlier with members of another local voter advocacy group and a local city clerk, and there are real concerns about safety measures and sufficient staffing at polling locations in August.

My group can help by heavily advertising absentee voting and helping to recruit younger poll workers (since many regular workers are in the high-risk age group). I plan to sign up myself and encourage anyone who is younger to consider it. Workers will be needed both at polls and to process absentee ballots.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: startingsmall on April 17, 2020, 10:45:47 AM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.

We definitely don't have enough younger members to support contemporary music... we're strictly an old-timey choir church.

What we'll need to do is come up with a way to artificially separate people in 2 or 3 separate services (our sanctuary is small) and figure out how to do just a small ensemble instead of the choir.

There are options, but I don't know how well-received they will be. Our church is very focused on their history and resists change. It's a small country church and there's definitely a potential for conflict. Hopefully not, but my husband & I are both a little nervous.

Wouldn't the congregation listen to the pastor? "God wants us to live - He gave us the will to isolate to save our fellow man."

It's complicated.

In some churches, yes, the pastor runs the church.

In our denomination, a committee of elected elders/deacons runs the church. My husband is viewed as an employee, hired by them to carry out certain responsibilities. He's charged with seeing to the spiritual health of the church, yes, but he doesn't get a vote in major church decisions and they have the option to fire him if they disagree with his decisions or performance. When we made the decision to cancel services (based on our state shutting down gatherings), he made the recommendation but the committee had to vote on it and they had the ultimate say.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: Jouer on April 17, 2020, 11:02:41 AM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.

We definitely don't have enough younger members to support contemporary music... we're strictly an old-timey choir church.

What we'll need to do is come up with a way to artificially separate people in 2 or 3 separate services (our sanctuary is small) and figure out how to do just a small ensemble instead of the choir.

There are options, but I don't know how well-received they will be. Our church is very focused on their history and resists change. It's a small country church and there's definitely a potential for conflict. Hopefully not, but my husband & I are both a little nervous.

Wouldn't the congregation listen to the pastor? "God wants us to live - He gave us the will to isolate to save our fellow man."

It's complicated.

In some churches, yes, the pastor runs the church.

In our denomination, a committee of elected elders/deacons runs the church. My husband is viewed as an employee, hired by them to carry out certain responsibilities. He's charged with seeing to the spiritual health of the church, yes, but he doesn't get a vote in major church decisions and they have the option to fire him if they disagree with his decisions or performance. When we made the decision to cancel services (based on our state shutting down gatherings), he made the recommendation but the committee had to vote on it and they had the ultimate say.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: dandarc on April 17, 2020, 11:06:21 AM
@startingsmall - That's how our denomination does it too - UU's here, so we don't call the board elders/deacons. I believe our church's board made the decision regarding remote services. Definitely not the minister's decision, although of course I'm sure he had input at that meeting.

Democratic principles are a core tenet of the denomination, so voting over what some might call way too many things is a part of practicing the religion, whether through our elected leaders or the direct votes we have a few times per year.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: FIRE Artist on April 17, 2020, 11:26:40 AM
Another development I will be watching with interest...

Walt Disney World.

I'm not a Disney hater; my family has went twice, and we were planning a fall 2020 trip that is obviously not going to happen.

It looks like Disneyland (in CA) will remain closed for months, but I've read a few articles indicating that WDW (in FL) might reopen sooner than we'd think, perhaps in May.

I don't understand how that is possible. I mean, of all of the upcoming conferences, conventions and concerts I know of have been canceled, even those with June and July dates. And those venues typically hold a few thousand people. Magic Kingdom all by itself has a capacity of around 100,000, and much of that time is spent squished together in lines for rides, but even just walking around it's hard not to constantly brush up against people. Transportation between resorts has lines. The transportation itself squishes people in. Restaurants and gift shops are pretty much always packed.

I guess it's all about money and how crazy policy-makers in FL are? (yes I realized I probably answered my own question). But even if Disney "thinned the herd" by 50% (which I'd doubt they do), and switched to more virtual queues like they are with Galaxy's Edge, how in the hell is anyone supposed to "social distance" to any extent in that environment? Wouldn't they be putting their $15/hr employees in grave danger?

But I can see the Disney folks saying, "You expect us to keep park operations closed for an entire year? We'll lose 2 billion dollars! And we employee thousands of people." And yes, that's a big economic impact. But the whole "theme park model" is just at odds with social distancing.

Anyone want to predict when Walt Disney World opens up? My prediction is June 1st, which I think is WAY too soon, but I'm just reading tea leaves.

Disney will obviously still have to follow any social distancing laws in place in Florida when then do reopen, but I don't think the connection to disney reopening and other things like conferences being cancelled is as clear as you think.  From a business risk standpoint it is very easy for Disney to reopen when things like conferences etc. are still being cancelled because of the size of the corporation and the disparate relationship of the attendees.  Things like conferences need people to commit to purchasing tickets early on and they can't take the financial risk of being left holding the bag for venue fees if people cancel en mass, so that is why many conferences jumped to cancel as soon as states of emergencies were declared allowing them to cancel without penalty.  For some organizations it means the difference between staying solvent for the next year or shutting the doors.   I am involved with a couple of art organizations that have annual conferences and this was the case for both of them.  Disney does not have the same kind of risks, and expect they can mobilize their business back into action with a much shorter timeline and can still turn a profit at much lower than peak attendance. 

Also in my city local arts festivals that run at the end of the summer are also being cancelled just in the last couple of weeks, not because we expect to be in lockdown by then, but because the organizations can't take the financial risk of having lower attendance.  In the case of the Fringe Festival, most of the acts do a circuit of festivals to make the season and all the costs associated with travel worth while.  It doesn't make sense to run an international festival at the end of the summer when all the events leading up to it are cancelled. 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: frugalnacho on April 17, 2020, 11:39:40 AM
In many places, voting will likely be very different this fall. I had a conference call earlier with members of another local voter advocacy group and a local city clerk, and there are real concerns about safety measures and sufficient staffing at polling locations in August.

My group can help by heavily advertising absentee voting and helping to recruit younger poll workers (since many regular workers are in the high-risk age group). I plan to sign up myself and encourage anyone who is younger to consider it. Workers will be needed both at polls and to process absentee ballots.

It should be 100% absentee ballots.  It should be that even without a pandemic.  It's so absurd to me how that is not just the standard anyway.  I've never worked a job that gave you election days off.  I know, I know, "it's the law! they have to allow you to vote!", but so are a lot of things like servers always being paid minimum wage, getting paid breaks at specified intervals, not having hazardous work conditions, etc that rarely get enforced.  And from the voter's side I don't understand why everyone would not just take the option to do absentee ballots.  If you have the option why would you ever bother going to vote in person? 
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 17, 2020, 11:41:05 AM
Also in my city local arts festivals that run at the end of the summer are also being cancelled just in the last couple of weeks, not because we expect to be in lockdown by then, but because the organizations can't take the financial risk of having lower attendance.  In the case of the Fringe Festival, most of the acts do a circuit of festivals to make the season and all the costs associated with travel worth while.  It doesn't make sense to run an international festival at the end of the summer when all the events leading up to it are cancelled.

Yeah, that's happening in my area too. My hometown has a big, very popular annual festival in early August that will likely be cancelled. The annual National Cherry Festival held in a northern Michigan city in July has already been cancelled.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 17, 2020, 11:42:56 AM
In many places, voting will likely be very different this fall. I had a conference call earlier with members of another local voter advocacy group and a local city clerk, and there are real concerns about safety measures and sufficient staffing at polling locations in August.

My group can help by heavily advertising absentee voting and helping to recruit younger poll workers (since many regular workers are in the high-risk age group). I plan to sign up myself and encourage anyone who is younger to consider it. Workers will be needed both at polls and to process absentee ballots.

It should be 100% absentee ballots.  It should be that even without a pandemic.  It's so absurd to me how that is not just the standard anyway.  I've never worked a job that gave you election days off.  I know, I know, "it's the law! they have to allow you to vote!", but so are a lot of things like servers always being paid minimum wage, getting paid breaks at specified intervals, not having hazardous work conditions, etc that rarely get enforced.  And from the voter's side I don't understand why everyone would not just take the option to do absentee ballots.  If you have the option why would you ever bother going to vote in person?

I actually love voting in person and get super excited on Election Day (which should be a national holiday), but I'm going to vote absentee this year and will encourage everyone I know to do so. In normal years, I think it's great to have both options and was thrilled that Prop 3 gave us that.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: LifeHappens on April 17, 2020, 12:55:49 PM
Disney may re-open, but I strongly suspect attendance will be way down because some employers will require people to self-quarantine before returning to work.

One set of neighbors had a March cruise scheduled. They ended up cancelling not because they were scared of being on a cruise in late March, but because their employers would have required both of them to self-quarantine for 14 days*. That would have burned 3 weeks of leave for each of them. If people are faced with that choice, they just won't travel.

*They both work in jobs where infecting others would have been a real and catastrophic risk. Their employers were completely justified in requiring this.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: 2Cent on April 17, 2020, 01:06:09 PM
...
The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.

WTF? What a weird thing to say. In my experience it's the middle aged people who are all about guitars, whereas the young adults and proper oldies like a normal choir. I guess that's not what you meant...?
Of course old and new music can be enjoyed by all generations. But if you put a loud rock band with all young people in the one, and an organ with traditional hymns in the other it is my experience that the elderly will prefer tradition and young the rock band. But I guess this is highly dependent on cultural factors.
Title: Re: Post COVID, what things in life will be fundamentally different?
Post by: OtherJen on April 17, 2020, 01:12:22 PM
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The biggest complication that we're foreseeing is church. My husband is a pastor. Right now, much of the congregation is supportive of him doing virtual services (they have no choice, since our governor mandated it)... but they seem to be growing impatient and getting antsy to return to in-person services. I can see a point coming where he has to choose between a) resuming services before we're comfortable with it or b) leaving his job. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of the questions about this virus will be answered, making the "right" choice more obvious, less controversial, more unanimous, etc... but I can easily see a scenario where we still feel that it's a significant threat to our elderly congregation and they try to force him to resume in-person services anyway.
There are in-between options where you do in person services with social distancing in place. You could easily separate the young and elderly members by having different music styles. The thing people are mostly missing is the social interaction. You could facilitate that by organising gatherings of smaller groups which mitigates some risk.

WTF? What a weird thing to say. In my experience it's the middle aged people who are all about guitars, whereas the young adults and proper oldies like a normal choir. I guess that's not what you meant...?
Of course old and new music can be enjoyed by all generations. But if you put a loud rock band with all young people in the one, and an organ with traditional hymns in the other it is my experience that the elderly will prefer tradition and young the rock band. But I guess this is highly dependent on cultural factors.

Yeah, when I was still a musician at a local Catholic church, the Boomers were most likely to want Kumbaya Mass and liturgical dance, while the older generations were more likely to call the contemporary styles "crap" and the younger ones tended to want as much Latin chant and smells-and-bells as possible (because we hadn't grown up with it).