Author Topic: Portfolio rebalancing with a pension?  (Read 2894 times)

Villanelle

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Portfolio rebalancing with a pension?
« on: November 02, 2014, 06:52:28 AM »
It's time for me to do some fairly significant portfolio rebalancing, but before I do so, I need to take care of something I've overlooked until now simply because I didn't know exactly how to deal with it.

DH will almost certainly receiving a military retirement check in anywhere from 6 to probably-no-more-than-12 years.  I don't know exactly how much it will be because we don't know how long he'll stay in and at what rank he'll retire, but I can come up with a minimum (unless the military completely revamps the program before his retirement) in today's dollars. 

Mentally for me, this acts in the same way a bonds do in a portfolio.  It's  reliable, stable amount of dependable income, which to my mind means I can and should be less conservative in my stocks/bonds allocation than I'd need to be if we didn't have this pension on the horizon.

Military retirement pay is inflation adjusted, more or less. 

But how exactly do I account for this?  How do I figure out what comparable % of bonds I should give up and move to stocks (and when I say "stocks", a mean almost exclusively mutual funds)?  I've read a zillion things on how to figure out what % of a portfolio should be in bonds ("your age as a % in bonds", etc.), but none of that covers how to calculate that when there's a pension involved other than , "less".

Any guidance or thoughts? 

Lkxe

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Re: Portfolio rebalancing with a pension?
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2014, 09:00:49 AM »
We are AD at 23 years and 18 months (?) to go. I spent his career getting our expenses covered by one paycheck. Not that difficult or challenging on an officers salary even with moves every 18 months, but the closer you get to 50% the easier retirement will be. I don't have an answer for you bond question, but I can give you my opinion and the reasons why I carry no bonds.  I bought no bonds during his early career because his life insurance is 400,000 more than a good start to get back on my feet, after 15 yrs he still had 400000 in life insurance and, barring bad behavior on his part, a very good chance of making it to retirement or at least getting a separation package. At 18 years, he was basically "vested" in his retirement and I had a good idea of the amount his retirement. Now with his retirement assured, a net worth higher than his insurance and our expenses below the check I expect, there is no reason for the safety play of bonds. Transferability of the GI bill further reduced my need to protect a percentage of my investments. If the Government was to fail to provide for it's veterans at least nominally I think the markets would have more problems than I can insure against.   That said your risk tolerance has a large role in your investment strategy and you should do what works for you.

Villanelle

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Re: Portfolio rebalancing with a pension?
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2014, 10:28:21 AM »
We are AD at 23 years and 18 months (?) to go. I spent his career getting our expenses covered by one paycheck. Not that difficult or challenging on an officers salary even with moves every 18 months, but the closer you get to 50% the easier retirement will be. I don't have an answer for you bond question, but I can give you my opinion and the reasons why I carry no bonds.  I bought no bonds during his early career because his life insurance is 400,000 more than a good start to get back on my feet, after 15 yrs he still had 400000 in life insurance and, barring bad behavior on his part, a very good chance of making it to retirement or at least getting a separation package. At 18 years, he was basically "vested" in his retirement and I had a good idea of the amount his retirement. Now with his retirement assured, a net worth higher than his insurance and our expenses below the check I expect, there is no reason for the safety play of bonds. Transferability of the GI bill further reduced my need to protect a percentage of my investments. If the Government was to fail to provide for it's veterans at least nominally I think the markets would have more problems than I can insure against.   That said your risk tolerance has a large role in your investment strategy and you should do what works for you.

My DH is at 15 years.  Due to timing or orders, it looks like he'll have to do at least 21, if not 22 before getting out.  I suspect that if he thinks he has a good change for O-6, he will stay for that, and then maybe long enough to get 3 HYT years in at that pay.  But who know? Of course he's not quite ensured the retirement yet, but barring something very bad, it's a safe bet.  He currently has verbal orders and is slated for a job that puts him through 19 years (yes, odd that we know this far out). 

 Congrats to your DH on the long and presumably successful career!

Thanks to what will end up being 3 sets of orders and 9 years OCONUS, we've had no choice but to set up to rely on one salary.  Unfortunately, that's the only salary, though in Japan (where we were, and will be again), there is at least the  ability to earn some nice part time money, but it's not really career building.  I'm going back to school (GI Bill) to hopefully increase my ability to find meaningful work when we are finally Stateside agin (Dec 2018, unless something drastic changes, which of course it might). 

I don't necessarily see quite the direct relationship between bonds and life insurance that you do.  DH is, IMO, grossly over-insured, but it's his thing and he's otherwise very frugal, so whatever.  But that doesn't help me hedge against market drops in retirement, which is part of the reason for holding bonds--a more stable holding than stocks.  Ideally, he will still be with me when we are happily spending down our retirement funds, so I don't look at insurance (his or mine) as being relevant.  Good to have, but not really a measure to protect against market instability, unless I'm missing something. 

Lkxe

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Re: Portfolio rebalancing with a pension?
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2014, 10:58:30 AM »

I don't necessarily see quite the direct relationship between bonds and life insurance that you do.  DH is, IMO, grossly over-insured, but it's his thing and he's otherwise very frugal, so whatever.  But that doesn't help me hedge against market drops in retirement, which is part of the reason for holding bonds--a more stable holding than stocks.  Ideally, he will still be with me when we are happily spending down our retirement funds, so I don't look at insurance (his or mine) as being relevant.  Good to have, but not really a measure to protect against market instability, unless I'm missing something. 
[/quote]

 Thanks- Yes fairly successful, he is in his command tour, up for O-6, if he gets it He will want to stay- we will see where that would take us even without promote. ( Always has been my choice, so we will see how old I feel next year)
 We are one income fam-I raised kids through deployments and moves with a little homeschooling for mid term shifts- helped keep the wants and needs low.( helps to remember that his retirement pay is higher than the average American income)  I count the retirement as bonds/cash and insurance isn't protection from fluctuations just my own protection. If he should have the bad taste to croak off on me I would add bonds to my portfolio for myself but not for the two of us. But I am an optimistic sort and have a least one old enough to pay back his college funding for the betterment of his old mum.  I have been told Japan is a great opportunity to bank some cola but hard to readjust from. Good Luck.

Catbert

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Re: Portfolio rebalancing with a pension?
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2014, 01:57:25 PM »
Personally I don't equate a pension with either life insurance or bonds.  To determine FIRE I would subtract the pension amount from the amount I needed each year to live and then aim to have a portfolio that would support the rest.

My pension (I'm a retired Federal employee) is enough to support my basic needs.  My portfolio is about: 15% bonds, 15% investment real estate, 5% cash and 60% mutual funds.  (Yes, I know that doesn't add up to 100% but it gives me wiggle room to minimize re-balancing).  Because of the pension I haven't moved more into bonds as I've gotten older.  That was my allocation when I was in my 40s and now in my 60s and I plan to keep that allocation when I'm in my 80s.

   

Villanelle

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Re: Portfolio rebalancing with a pension?
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2014, 02:26:17 PM »

 Thanks- Yes fairly successful, he is in his command tour, up for O-6, if he gets it He will want to stay- we will see where that would take us even without promote. ( Always has been my choice, so we will see how old I feel next year)
 We are one income fam-I raised kids through deployments and moves with a little homeschooling for mid term shifts- helped keep the wants and needs low.( helps to remember that his retirement pay is higher than the average American income)  I count the retirement as bonds/cash and insurance isn't protection from fluctuations just my own protection. If he should have the bad taste to croak off on me I would add bonds to my portfolio for myself but not for the two of us. But I am an optimistic sort and have a least one old enough to pay back his college funding for the betterment of his old mum.  I have been told Japan is a great opportunity to bank some cola but hard to readjust from. Good Luck.

My DH will be doing his command tour when we are back in Japan.  That will put him at about 19.5 years, but he'll have to do either 12 or 24 months, at a minimum, for his next tour.  No idea what happens after that, but I'm sure it will be interesting.

I didn't love our last Japan tour, and we are going back to the same base.  The COLA mostly made up for my lost income, and then I made amazing money teaching English part time.  I likely won't be able to teach as much next time, but I'm sure we won't starve!

Personally I don't equate a pension with either life insurance or bonds.  To determine FIRE I would subtract the pension amount from the amount I needed each year to live and then aim to have a portfolio that would support the rest.

My pension (I'm a retired Federal employee) is enough to support my basic needs.  My portfolio is about: 15% bonds, 15% investment real estate, 5% cash and 60% mutual funds.  (Yes, I know that doesn't add up to 100% but it gives me wiggle room to minimize re-balancing).  Because of the pension I haven't moved more into bonds as I've gotten older.  That was my allocation when I was in my 40s and now in my 60s and I plan to keep that allocation when I'm in my 80s.

   

This is what I've done to determine our FIRE amount, but it doesn't help me figure out how much of our portfolio to put into bonds.  Right now, I'm at about 25% bonds, which I think might be too high, given the pension.  (We are nearly 40.)  No idea when we plan to ER, or in DH's case, maybe just "R" with no "E".  He seems to think he will want to work until 60+, and I'm inclined to believe him.