Author Topic: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid  (Read 16139 times)

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2899
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #100 on: November 17, 2020, 11:06:40 AM »
Oh, I know.  I'm not saying I wouldn't probably take it once it was available.  I just hate that we're testing an entirely new KIND of vaccine as well as a vaccine for a new disease all in one go.  It would be nice if we had any sort of data on mRNA vaccines for other diseases that have a vaccine of another variety (acellular, killed virus, attenuated, anything) so we could compare safety, efficacy, etc.

I see what you're saying now, and I reread that post from @Abe.  I wonder how much extra time an average person would have to wait to get the Oxford vaccine instead of one of the mRNA vaccines.  Also, will the Oxford vaccine be quicker to scale up production anyway since it's using an established technology?

WhiteTrashCash

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1983
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #101 on: November 17, 2020, 11:30:57 AM »
We literally don't have any of those in use yet, so no one knows (in the long term) how they'll do.  It's a super cool technology, and I've only worked with it on small scale cell culture things, but it is a little worrying to me that we're testing what's basically a brand new technology on the entire world.

Very true, but the other option is to let billions of people catch COVID.  It's a brand new virus, and we don't truly know what its long-term effects are either.  It seems like our two choices are to test the vaccine on the entire world or test the virus on the majority of the world.

Oh, I know.  I'm not saying I wouldn't probably take it once it was available.  I just hate that we're testing an entirely new KIND of vaccine as well as a vaccine for a new disease all in one go.  It would be nice if we had any sort of data on mRNA vaccines for other diseases that have a vaccine of another variety (acellular, killed virus, attenuated, anything) so we could compare safety, efficacy, etc.

Everybody has watched too much "Walking Dead". It'll be fine.

YttriumNitrate

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1841
  • Location: Northwest Indiana
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #102 on: November 17, 2020, 11:42:46 AM »
Oh, I know.  I'm not saying I wouldn't probably take it once it was available.  I just hate that we're testing an entirely new KIND of vaccine as well as a vaccine for a new disease all in one go.  It would be nice if we had any sort of data on mRNA vaccines for other diseases that have a vaccine of another variety (acellular, killed virus, attenuated, anything) so we could compare safety, efficacy, etc.
Everybody has watched too much "Walking Dead". It'll be fine.
While it will likely be a pretty easy call in making the risk/reward call for the elderly, other populations probably won't be so easy. Based on current CDC numbers, there have been just 55 Covid19 related deaths among those ages 1 to 14. With a population of 55 million in that demographic it wouldn't take much of a rare side effect to have a repeat of the 1976 swine flu vaccine.

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2899
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #103 on: November 17, 2020, 11:48:35 AM »
While it will likely be a pretty easy call in making the risk/reward call for the elderly, other populations probably won't be so easy. Based on current CDC numbers, there have been just 55 Covid19 related deaths among those ages 1 to 14. With a population of 55 million in that demographic it wouldn't take much of a rare side effect to have a repeat of the 1976 swine flu vaccine.

Yes, but if we're talking rare side effects, what rare side effects does COVID have on people ages 1 to 14?  Deaths to rare side effects isn't an apples to apples comparison. 

J Dough

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 19
  • Location: Midwest USA
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #104 on: November 17, 2020, 12:02:31 PM »
While it will likely be a pretty easy call in making the risk/reward call for the elderly, other populations probably won't be so easy. Based on current CDC numbers, there have been just 55 Covid19 related deaths among those ages 1 to 14. With a population of 55 million in that demographic it wouldn't take much of a rare side effect to have a repeat of the 1976 swine flu vaccine.

Yes, but if we're talking rare side effects, what rare side effects does COVID have on people ages 1 to 14?  Deaths to rare side effects isn't an apples to apples comparison. 

That's true. While serious illness and lasting health impacts are rare for kids who get COVID, death is far from the only bad outcome. MIS-C is one of the big ones that health departments are trying to track.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #105 on: November 17, 2020, 08:21:13 PM »
To clarify, mRNA vaccines have been used for very small trials in certain cancers. Obviously quite different population but they did not appear to have major or very common long term side effects. The caveat being most patients didn’t survive long enough to develop any effects, or they were masked by their cancer symptoms. The technology itself is not new, it just hasn’t worked well in the past, and is being tried for a new reason on a different, healthy population.

The Oxford vaccine only requires standard refrigeration similar to most conventional vaccines. Ramping up will be fast as this is a fairly old technology, just a different target.

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2899
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #106 on: November 18, 2020, 10:47:10 AM »
Long term efficacy will not be available for the long term. It is worth everyone individually balancing their risk of serious long-term complications from covid and from the vaccines. In a Perfect world we would be able to estimate both, but we are in a situation where both the virus and the vaccine are fairly novel. It will be worth seeing, for low risk populations, the efficacy of the Oxford - AstraZeneca vaccine as that uses a vector that is well studied and generally quite safe from long term data in prior studies for malaria vaccines. People at higher risk who can’t reasonably social distance, such as myself, will likely benefit from any of the above vaccines. However, my risk factors aren’t high enough in my estimation to proceed with vaccination before at least the full phase 3 short term data on the new RNA vaccines are reported. I bet most of us are in this group. The options then are waiting patiently for vaccine data, waiting patiently for covid to run whatever course happens after people who are at high risk of complications from covid get vaccinated, or wait for the Oxford vaccine.

What would be your best wild guess as to the time delta between the RNA vaccines being available to the general public vs the more established vaccines?  Is it possible that the general public will have quicker access to the older type of vaccine anyway due to being able to ramp up manufacturing faster?

Would you personally think it was worth the risk for you to get an RNA vaccine once the FDA and other countries' equivalent approve it for general use?

PDXTabs

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5160
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Vancouver, WA, USA
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #107 on: November 18, 2020, 10:51:03 AM »
Would you personally think it was worth the risk for you to get an RNA vaccine once the FDA and other countries' equivalent approve it for general use?

Knowing how mRNA works, I don't have any reason to think that an mRNA vaccine is risky until someone actually presents me with some data showing the risk.

Jack0Life

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #108 on: November 18, 2020, 06:22:47 PM »
One thing is absolutely clear to me from the close results - Trump could have easily won the re-election if he could have found it in him to act like a responsible adult in a leadership position back in February / March.

Agreed 100%.
If he took Covid more serious, he would have won re-election.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #109 on: November 18, 2020, 08:57:11 PM »
Long term efficacy will not be available for the long term. It is worth everyone individually balancing their risk of serious long-term complications from covid and from the vaccines. In a Perfect world we would be able to estimate both, but we are in a situation where both the virus and the vaccine are fairly novel. It will be worth seeing, for low risk populations, the efficacy of the Oxford - AstraZeneca vaccine as that uses a vector that is well studied and generally quite safe from long term data in prior studies for malaria vaccines. People at higher risk who can’t reasonably social distance, such as myself, will likely benefit from any of the above vaccines. However, my risk factors aren’t high enough in my estimation to proceed with vaccination before at least the full phase 3 short term data on the new RNA vaccines are reported. I bet most of us are in this group. The options then are waiting patiently for vaccine data, waiting patiently for covid to run whatever course happens after people who are at high risk of complications from covid get vaccinated, or wait for the Oxford vaccine.

What would be your best wild guess as to the time delta between the RNA vaccines being available to the general public vs the more established vaccines?  Is it possible that the general public will have quicker access to the older type of vaccine anyway due to being able to ramp up manufacturing faster?

Would you personally think it was worth the risk for you to get an RNA vaccine once the FDA and other countries' equivalent approve it for general use?

Early 2021 (March-April) for the general population access to RNA vaccines, mid 2021 (June-August) for the others, just based on timeline of reporting preliminary data. I think either type can be produced much faster than the flu vaccines for technical reasons, but we the doses required is tremendous.

I would like to see the final data on efficacy and any known side effects at that point. This is because I'm at high risk of exposure, but low risk of complications, thus in a moderate-risk category. No one should be or feel pressured into taking a relatively unknown medication, especially as a preventative measure rather than curative treatment. It is not acceptable ethically to pressure this on the general population (which by definition is low risk). That being said, mRNA vaccines by their nature are not long-lasting so I doubt there are long-term side effects, and we frankly don't have time to wait to find out 100%. By the time the final efficacy data is available for both trials, we should know of any rare short-term side effects such as Guillan-Barre syndrome, etc.

nippycrisp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1341
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #110 on: November 19, 2020, 12:22:40 AM »
Long term efficacy will not be available for the long term. It is worth everyone individually balancing their risk of serious long-term complications from covid and from the vaccines. In a Perfect world we would be able to estimate both, but we are in a situation where both the virus and the vaccine are fairly novel. It will be worth seeing, for low risk populations, the efficacy of the Oxford - AstraZeneca vaccine as that uses a vector that is well studied and generally quite safe from long term data in prior studies for malaria vaccines. People at higher risk who can’t reasonably social distance, such as myself, will likely benefit from any of the above vaccines. However, my risk factors aren’t high enough in my estimation to proceed with vaccination before at least the full phase 3 short term data on the new RNA vaccines are reported. I bet most of us are in this group. The options then are waiting patiently for vaccine data, waiting patiently for covid to run whatever course happens after people who are at high risk of complications from covid get vaccinated, or wait for the Oxford vaccine.

What would be your best wild guess as to the time delta between the RNA vaccines being available to the general public vs the more established vaccines?  Is it possible that the general public will have quicker access to the older type of vaccine anyway due to being able to ramp up manufacturing faster?

Would you personally think it was worth the risk for you to get an RNA vaccine once the FDA and other countries' equivalent approve it for general use?

Early 2021 (March-April) for the general population access to RNA vaccines, mid 2021 (June-August) for the others, just based on timeline of reporting preliminary data. I think either type can be produced much faster than the flu vaccines for technical reasons, but we the doses required is tremendous.

I would like to see the final data on efficacy and any known side effects at that point. This is because I'm at high risk of exposure, but low risk of complications, thus in a moderate-risk category. No one should be or feel pressured into taking a relatively unknown medication, especially as a preventative measure rather than curative treatment. It is not acceptable ethically to pressure this on the general population (which by definition is low risk). That being said, mRNA vaccines by their nature are not long-lasting so I doubt there are long-term side effects, and we frankly don't have time to wait to find out 100%. By the time the final efficacy data is available for both trials, we should know of any rare short-term side effects such as Guillan-Barre syndrome, etc.

Don't want to speak for Abe on the last bit, but to clarify: I believe s/he means that the mRNA used in the vaccine doesn't persist very long, not that the conferred immunity will not last long. Naked mRNA is cleared within 15 seconds of injection. The vaccines use a stabilization and delivery technology that increases survival and allows the vaccine to penetrate the cell. I don't know this for a fact, but the differences in stability of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines is likely due to differences in this technology.

When vaccine mRNA enters a cell, it uses the cell's endogenous machinery to produce viral protein, in this case the spike protein Covid-19 relies on to dock with and enter host cells. The immune system views this new protein as foreign and begins "learning" how to mount a response when it is present (I can be much, much more specific on this). However, the original mRNA is long degraded by this point, and the proteins are also rapidly ubiquitinated and degraded within a few days. At this point, the vaccine itself is basically gone.

Compare this to a more conventional vaccine, which uses a killed or attenuated/replication-incompetent virus that doesn't use the body to produce a real protein and relies on direct recognition of the introduced particles. Different approach, different risks. For technical reasons, you could actually argue the traditional vaccines pose more of a threat for individuals due to the possibility of preexisting immune responses to the host vector.

The biggest limiter on using mRNA vaccines previously has been the delivery and stability problem, which I touched on earlier. People working in relative obscurity have been dealing with these issues, and it's a damn good thing that they were largely solved when this happened. Anyone remember the previous record for a soup-to-nuts development of a conventional vaccine approval? I believe the speed record was FOUR YEARS (for mumps, IIRC). Imagine having this conversation in April of 2024.

Joel

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 887
  • Location: California
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #111 on: November 19, 2020, 02:11:08 AM »
I just want to say thank you for the scientist types in this thread sharing their opinion.

I personally like the idea of waiting for a few regulatory agencies from different nations to approve any vaccine before I take it since I’m able to stay home as long as needed.

Segare

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 45
  • Location: Florida
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #112 on: November 19, 2020, 05:25:52 AM »
I'm not an anti-vaxxer at all . . . but have some misgivings about the speed development and testing is being done at for these vaccines.  I'm not confident that the initial vaccine will be safe.  Safer than covid?  Maybe.  But I'm not going to be first in line for it.  Nothing that I've read about the testing being done has given me strong confidence in the changes that have been made to normal process.
Yes, look up the 1976 Swine flu vaccine. It was rushed and people died.

BNgarden

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 508
  • Location: Alberta
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #113 on: November 19, 2020, 08:33:39 AM »
...For technical reasons, you could actually argue the traditional vaccines pose more of a threat for individuals due to the possibility of preexisting immune responses to the host vector.
...

Echoing thanks to the scientists willing to help understand what's up with vaccines.

Are you speaking here of ADE?  I've been reading up on this a bit, but the biology and scientific terms I'd have to learn to understand what I'm reading are significant!  Does mRNA method decrease chances of this?  I had read that it was less likely because of this particular virus using ACE2 receptors rather than Fc?

This is the one with too much science for me to follow well:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00789-5

This was better (for me to understand more):
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/covid-19-vaccine-researchers-mindful-of-immune-enhancement-67576

Some good laymen's overview articles in The Atlantic recently:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/vaccines-end-covid-19-pandemic-sight/617141/

Background on complexity of immune system:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/

TrMama

  • Guest
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #114 on: November 19, 2020, 10:03:38 AM »
I'm not an anti-vaxxer at all . . . but have some misgivings about the speed development and testing is being done at for these vaccines.  I'm not confident that the initial vaccine will be safe.  Safer than covid?  Maybe.  But I'm not going to be first in line for it.  Nothing that I've read about the testing being done has given me strong confidence in the changes that have been made to normal process.
Yes, look up the 1976 Swine flu vaccine. It was rushed and people died.

Development of the various Covid vaccines in development has been accelerated by carrying out some of the development steps concurrently, instead of consecutively. In normal times, this kind of approach would be considered far too costly. However, for Covid the problem is basically being solved by throwing vast amounts of money at the problem. For example, normally a company would identify a target vaccine, make a small amount of it to use in testing, gather test subjects, perform testing and then apply for approval from the various international regulatory bodies. Only after testing and approval would they really start to look at how they could make the vaccine in large quantities (scale up).

In the case of Covid vaccine development, many of those steps have been overlapped to save time. Look at the timeline figure in this article, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005630 for an illustration. These steps have been overlapped simply by throwing money at the problem. This has been a huge risk to the companies because they've invested in scale up processes and equipment before knowing whether their candidate will even be successful. In normal times this would be financial suicide and is the reason the effort is being funded by governments. It's the equivalent of buying your school age child a medical practice in the hopes he'll get into med school and become a doctor. It if works, great. If not you've just blown a huge wad of cash. In this case, the vaccine companies already have stockpiles of vaccine, ready to inject into our arms. If their vaccine passes testing and is approved, it can be shipped around the world that minute. If not, well, they've just spent millions to make garbage.

I think we'll look back on this period of history as one of our greatest human triumphs. I only wish we applied half this amount of effort to curing other infectious diseases. I have a degree in microbiology and used to work in biotech. However, I left the industry early in my career because I couldn't handle how it focuses only on the money, almost never on the public good. If the industry applied it's considerable resources towards curing malaria or HIV or any of the other awful diseases that affect poor people around the world I'd be happy to work for free. However, what do we get? Fucking Viagra. Only when rich people are in danger do we make these big leaps forward.

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2899
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #115 on: November 19, 2020, 10:45:12 AM »
If the industry applied it's considerable resources towards curing malaria or HIV or any of the other awful diseases that affect poor people around the world I'd be happy to work for free.

People seem to forget that we were already in another pandemic when this one hit.  HIV hasn't gone away even if we've mitigated a lot of the terrible effects seen in the 1980s.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we don't need any kind of technological advance at all to bring malaria deaths down to near zero, right?  My understanding is that it's more about making sure everybody has access to nets and medication that has been around for decades. 

the_fixer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1252
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #116 on: November 19, 2020, 11:14:47 AM »
So with the Mrna vaccination does it alter your genes or just teach the body how to fight the virus by introduction and causing an immune response.

I will likely be pressured at work to get it ASAP and towards the front of the line due to the nature of what we do.

Just trying to understand it a little better, I do not think they will force me but once a vaccine is available I will have to make a choice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

nippycrisp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1341
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #117 on: November 19, 2020, 11:19:48 AM »
...For technical reasons, you could actually argue the traditional vaccines pose more of a threat for individuals due to the possibility of preexisting immune responses to the host vector.
...

Echoing thanks to the scientists willing to help understand what's up with vaccines.

Are you speaking here of ADE?  I've been reading up on this a bit, but the biology and scientific terms I'd have to learn to understand what I'm reading are significant!  Does mRNA method decrease chances of this?  I had read that it was less likely because of this particular virus using ACE2 receptors rather than Fc?

This is the one with too much science for me to follow well:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00789-5

This was better (for me to understand more):
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/covid-19-vaccine-researchers-mindful-of-immune-enhancement-67576

Some good laymen's overview articles in The Atlantic recently:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/vaccines-end-covid-19-pandemic-sight/617141/

Background on complexity of immune system:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/

I'm a lowly retired neurobiologist, so take everything I say about immunology with a small grain of salt.

ADE refers to antibody-dependent enhancement, which basically means that the antibodies being produced make the situation worse instead of better. This generally happens in one of two ways:

(1) A vaccine can over-juice the immune system's response. Stimulating the immune system is good... to a point. A severe allergic reaction is a very bad thing, as is a situation where the immune system gets confused and starts attacking the wrong thing (Type 1 diabetes, or Multiple Sclerosis come to mind, although here they're talking about acute responses. I think "cytokine storm" is the cook-kids term in the press).

(2) Alternatively (or at the same time, if your luck is really horrible), the antibodies produced by vaccination can actually enhance the infectivity of the target virus. This sounds paradoxical, but I'll try and explain it simply: at the microscopic level, binding between proteins isn't all that different from clicking together legos - complimentary pieces tend to fit together nicely. It's a bit more complicated than this, but work with me. Sometimes the fit between a virus's docking protein and a host's surface receptor isn't perfect, and binding only occurs 50% of the time. But now there's an antibody that comes along that sticks to the side of the viral docking protein. Not enough to block its function or in a way that the body can recognize or destroy the virus, but enough to squeeze the docking protein into a shape that fits into the cell's receptor a little better, so that the infection rate goes from 50% to 80%. Bam, your close-but-not-quite antibody cure made the virus worse.

That said, these aren't big concerns for me, as safety data would have ferreted these issues out. My main concern about non-mRNA vaccines is an existing immune response. Conventional vaccines show some form of virus to the immune system. But remember that the immune system "remembers" what it sees, and this includes viruses. It's an issue in gene therapy, for example; if you receive virus X to treat disease Y, your body will remember virus X and attack the next time it sees it. For vaccines, it means it's very important to use a virus that's vaccine friendly (i.e., makes for good antibody response) and also unlikely to trigger repeat-administration immune reactions in people who have already been exposed. This is the reason Janssen is using Adenovirus 26, which is a crazy obscure virus that few people have ever been exposed to... we think. 

While I'm typing, I'll add this:

Comparing any part of the coronavirus to influenza (either viral biology or vaccine development) usually isn't a good idea unless you know a great deal about both viruses and know what you're talking about. There are massive differences in the virus's genetic materials, their target cell populations, their reservoirs (the animal species they live in before jumping into people). But the most common misunderstanding these days is (not) understanding how vaccine development differs for the influenza and coronavirus.

Vaccines are developed, not against the entire virus, but rather against specific proteins. Usually, these are the proteins that sit on the outside of the virus particles, which allow the virus to stick to and enter specific host cells. Influenzavirus infects cells using a combination of two proteins that have been modified with various sugars, which are referred to as glycoproteins. These two glycoproteins are called hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. There are many different variants of each of these, and influenzas are generally categorized by the combination of hemagglutinin/neuraminidase the strain has. You may have heard of H1N1 flu, and now you know where that comes from.

Point is, every year influenza retreats into cormorants and recombines into a new form that infects slightly differently. People who make the flu virus make educated guesses about what H(X)N(X) versions are likely to be this year and make a vaccine targeted at those proteins. It's essentially a yearly game of bop-a-mole.

Depressed? Well, here's the good news: Coronaviruses are much simpler. The protein used to dock the virus is called a spike protein, and it's very, very conserved (meaning it tends to stay the same over time). No seasonal change problem, no moving target. It also reduces/avoids some of the ADE problems mentioned above.

The methods of making the vaccines are also very different, but you get the idea. Point is, the comparison is apples to oranges unless you really know your stuff.

For those interested, I've posted off an on about Covid and vaccine development stuff on my blog, including my experiences participating in the Moderna trial as a volunteer.

Lastly:

I think we'll look back on this period of history as one of our greatest human triumphs. I only wish we applied half this amount of effort to curing other infectious diseases. I have a degree in microbiology and used to work in biotech. However, I left the industry early in my career because I couldn't handle how it focuses only on the money, almost never on the public good. If the industry applied it's considerable resources towards curing malaria or HIV or any of the other awful diseases that affect poor people around the world I'd be happy to work for free. However, what do we get? Fucking Viagra. Only when rich people are in danger do we make these big leaps forward.


The drug that became Viagra was serendipitously discovered. Originally, it was a vasodilator intended to alleviate chest pain by relaxing blood vessels around the heart. Long story short, it didn't work and the trial failed, but when the investigators started asking their heart patients - many of whom were older men - to return their unused pills, they discovered that many of them were reticent to do so. Someone asked why, and they discovered that the drug did relax certain blood vessels, just not the ones they'd originally intended. A happy accident.


dandarc

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5485
  • Age: 41
  • Pronouns: he/him/his
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #118 on: November 19, 2020, 11:22:59 AM »
@the_fixer  - see @nippycrisp's post a few up thread.

mRNA enters cell, cell produces the spike protein from the virus for a bit. Immune system sees spike protein as a threat and learns how to fight it.

PDXTabs

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5160
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Vancouver, WA, USA
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #119 on: November 19, 2020, 11:23:58 AM »
mRNA enters cell, cell produces the spike protein from the virus for a bit. Immune system sees spike protein as a threat and learns how to fight it.

Yup, with a sufficiently large amount of handwaving, the only difference is where you grow the spike protein.

Dollar Slice

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9651
  • Age: 46
  • Location: New York City
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #120 on: November 19, 2020, 11:24:17 AM »
So with the Mrna vaccination does it alter your genes or just teach the body how to fight the virus by introduction and causing an immune response.

It doesn't alter your genes. Viruses are made of RNA; as far as I understand it, the vaccine is injecting a very small piece of the virus so that your body will learn what it looks like and develop antibodies to it. The piece of the virus it's injecting is not the part that makes you sick and spreads to other people, so it's not dangerous in the same way as the whole virus is. The RNA being injected is sort of like the 'key' that lets the virus get into your cells. Just the key and nothing else. Getting the vaccine is like teaching your security system how to recognize a counterfeit key, so if a burglar comes and tries to get in with that fake key, it will know that they are an intruder and sound an alarm, instead of letting them open the door and waltz into your home.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #121 on: November 19, 2020, 09:37:38 PM »
Nippycrisp explained the mechanism very well. They are right I was referring to the mRNA degrading rapidly, not the immune response (hopefully- that remains TBD).

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #122 on: November 20, 2020, 12:33:29 AM »
Thx @nippycrisp

It's 08:33 where I sit and I feel just a little bit smarter than when I woke up this morning. Well explained!

thesis

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 407
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #123 on: November 20, 2020, 09:23:29 AM »
I think there is always a concern for safety when you are trying to elicit an immune response, but I guess I have more faith in the scientific community and that science has learned a hell of a lot more since the 1950s/1960s. Of course, we still don't have cures for a lot of things, but I don't know if that is a science problem or an economics/funding problem... (of course, the two are closely intertwined, just saying, I'd trust a new vaccine today far more than I would have a new vaccine in 1960)

As I've told friends, I might be open to taking the vaccine if people have been getting it for several months and seem to be doing fine. The caveat being, as others have mentioned, that it would need FDA approval.

What people haven't mentioned, though, is how fast it is mutating. I am NOT one of those people who seizes on the fear-mongering in the media over the handful of people who have experienced re-infection, but it is important to remember that learning how to treat this is just as important as learning how to prevent it. If, and that's a big IF, but if the prevention does the trick, then sure, we're doing great. But if we just ignore treatment and the prevention doesn't play out the way we expect (mutates too fast, etc), then we're not so great. And, technically, being able to "cure" it after infection would be great, too, long-term affects aside, depending on when a person gets treated.

I don't know. It's exciting news, absolutely, but it's not the whole picture.

Dollar Slice

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9651
  • Age: 46
  • Location: New York City
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #124 on: November 20, 2020, 09:40:39 AM »
What people haven't mentioned, though, is how fast it is mutating.

It's important to remember that the mutation speed is not dependent on time, but on the number of times the virus replicates itself. Infecting a million people a week is going to result in far more mutation than infecting 10,000 people a week. So if we can slow it down drastically (with a vaccine, mask mandates, lockdowns, etc.), we can lower the odds of a problematic mutation.

Although if the prospect of millions of dead people doesn't prevent someone from wanting to slow down the virus, I doubt the speed of mutation will make them want to wear a mask or take a vaccine, either...

thesis

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 407
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #125 on: November 20, 2020, 10:03:43 AM »
What people haven't mentioned, though, is how fast it is mutating.

It's important to remember that the mutation speed is not dependent on time, but on the number of times the virus replicates itself. Infecting a million people a week is going to result in far more mutation than infecting 10,000 people a week. So if we can slow it down drastically (with a vaccine, mask mandates, lockdowns, etc.), we can lower the odds of a problematic mutation.

Good point. That's actually encouraging to think of :)

shuffler

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 575
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #126 on: November 20, 2020, 10:04:11 AM »
What people haven't mentioned, though, is how fast it is mutating.
On the same page of this very thread:

Point is, every year influenza retreats into cormorants and recombines into a new form that infects slightly differently. People who make the flu virus make educated guesses about what H(X)N(X) versions are likely to be this year and make a vaccine targeted at those proteins. It's essentially a yearly game of bop-a-mole.

Depressed? Well, here's the good news: Coronaviruses are much simpler. The protein used to dock the virus is called a spike protein, and it's very, very conserved (meaning it tends to stay the same over time). No seasonal change problem, no moving target. It also reduces/avoids some of the ADE problems mentioned above.

HPstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2863
  • Age: 37
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #127 on: December 04, 2020, 09:43:25 AM »
Delaney is proposing the second round of stimulus check being dependent on being vaccinated for COVID-19... not sure what to think:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/1500-stimulus-checks-for-covid-19-shots-how-one-plan-would-work.html

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20798
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #128 on: December 04, 2020, 10:04:34 AM »
Delaney is proposing the second round of stimulus check being dependent on being vaccinated for COVID-19... not sure what to think:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/1500-stimulus-checks-for-covid-19-shots-how-one-plan-would-work.html

There is not enough vaccine available for this to work.  Plus if someone is not priority for the vaccine they won't get it any time soon, simply because they are not at the head of the line, no matter how much they want it.  So, not practical.  Plus, as much as I think anti-vaxxers are irrational, I would not force an adult to get it against their will.  Once the vaccine is plentiful, I think it makes sense to require children to have it to attend school, just as MMR etc. are required.

What is it with the US and making people jump through hoops for things?  Our benefits are being administered much more loosely (which is driving the Conservatives crazy) but we figure over-payments etc. will be recovered when people file taxes.  Better than the financial disasters which would occur otherwise.

Segare

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 45
  • Location: Florida
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #129 on: December 04, 2020, 11:16:31 AM »
Delaney is proposing the second round of stimulus check being dependent on being vaccinated for COVID-19... not sure what to think:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/1500-stimulus-checks-for-covid-19-shots-how-one-plan-would-work.html

That almost sounds criminal.

TrMama

  • Guest
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #130 on: December 04, 2020, 12:06:40 PM »
Once the vaccine is plentiful, I think it makes sense to require children to have it to attend school, just as MMR etc. are required.

Once a vaccine has been approved for use in kids, then we can talk about making it mandatory for school. However, the current vaccines are only just now being tested in kids 12-18. It's going to be a while still before they're available for younger kids.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2020, 12:20:10 PM by TrMama »

stoaX

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1008
  • Location: South Carolina
  • 'tis nothing good nor bad but thinking makes it so
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #131 on: December 04, 2020, 12:10:46 PM »
I'll take the vaccine as soon as I can get it

Me too. I figure that by the time it's available to a non-essential healthy person like me any nasty short term issues will be known.  At least that's what I keep telling myself...

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20798
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #132 on: December 04, 2020, 01:22:32 PM »
Once the vaccine is plentiful, I think it makes sense to require children to have it to attend school, just as MMR etc. are required.

Once a vaccine has been approved for use in kids, then we can talk about making it mandatory for school. However, the current vaccines are only just now being tested in kids 12-18. It's going to be a while still before they're available for younger kids.

I thought I implied that school vaccination was a down the road thing?  Kids are a low risk group, and apparently the mumps portion of the MMR vaccine provides a bit of cross immunity.  So 12-18 are low down the list, and 1-11 even later. 

Although I would hope to see teens working at grocery stores and fast food places be high priority as soon as their age group is approved.

RetiredAt63

  • CMTO 2023 Attendees
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *
  • Posts: 20798
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #133 on: December 04, 2020, 06:08:05 PM »
The big thing that concerns me is the potential (and highly likely) negative change in behaviour by politicians and citizens (open everything up, relaxed social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing, etc., etc) with vaccine rollouts and people having a false sense of security.  It’s likely going to take months if not YEARS to get a high proportion of a country’s population vaccinated, and in the meantime the viral spread could be even worse than it is now.  My fear is that the worst could be yet to come and I sure hope I’m wrong....

That is going to need a major public education campaign.  Especially since it needs 2 doses.


MicroRN

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1042
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #134 on: December 06, 2020, 08:24:56 AM »
I'll take it as soon as it's available to us.  For our hospital, they said it is not mandatory, just recommended.

However, I'm a research nurse, specifically working on COVID clinical trials.  In addition to the exposure risk, I'm following patients with COVID for months on end and seeing some of the effects.  Not everyone has major problems, of course.  Many are in the hospital a few days on oxygen then head home.  Long recovery at home, but nothing too bad, although we don't know all of the long-term effects of the disease yet.  A couple of them ended up in ICU for 2 or 3 months, on ventilators or ECMO, then trach + vent, and it killed their kidneys as well so they are on dialysis.  These were patients who had comorbidities (diabetes and hypertension), but both were healthy day to day with well controlled conditions.  We're now looking at long-term recovery of patients with COVID, getting recovered patients in for CT scans of the lungs, ECHO to check heart function, spirometry, and neurocognitive testing.  I'm interested to see what that shows. 

Considering what I do, my default tends to be willingness to try new treatments.  I took part in a vaccine trial years ago for a different disease that was very unlikely to affect me anyway.  I feel if I took that vaccine just for cash, there's no reason to not take this vaccine that could potentially help me.  And frankly, I'm more scared of the potential permanent dangers of COVID than I am of the potential vaccine effects.

TheContinentalOp

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 289
  • Location: Shenadoah Valley, Virginia
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #135 on: December 06, 2020, 07:49:20 PM »
I'm not in any one of the groups that looks to be designated to get the vaccine early.

But apparently I got COVID in early October. A bit of sniffles and felt run down for 3 days. Didn't get tested at the time, but I've since tested positive for the antibodies for 3 times. Figure I am safe until next summer and will evaluate what's been learned at that time to determine if I want the vaccine.

dandarc

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5485
  • Age: 41
  • Pronouns: he/him/his
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #136 on: December 07, 2020, 08:47:21 AM »
I'm not in any one of the groups that looks to be designated to get the vaccine early.

But apparently I got COVID in early October. A bit of sniffles and felt run down for 3 days. Didn't get tested at the time, but I've since tested positive for the antibodies for 3 times. Figure I am safe until next summer and will evaluate what's been learned at that time to determine if I want the vaccine.
Donate blood for convalescent plasma if there's a place to do that in your area.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #137 on: December 07, 2020, 09:05:51 PM »
I'm not in any one of the groups that looks to be designated to get the vaccine early.

But apparently I got COVID in early October. A bit of sniffles and felt run down for 3 days. Didn't get tested at the time, but I've since tested positive for the antibodies for 3 times. Figure I am safe until next summer and will evaluate what's been learned at that time to determine if I want the vaccine.
Donate blood for convalescent plasma if there's a place to do that in your area.

A multi-center randomized trial of convalescent plasma showed no survival benefit for severe COVID-19 pneumonia. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2031304

dandarc

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5485
  • Age: 41
  • Pronouns: he/him/his
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #138 on: December 08, 2020, 08:31:21 AM »
I'm not in any one of the groups that looks to be designated to get the vaccine early.

But apparently I got COVID in early October. A bit of sniffles and felt run down for 3 days. Didn't get tested at the time, but I've since tested positive for the antibodies for 3 times. Figure I am safe until next summer and will evaluate what's been learned at that time to determine if I want the vaccine.
Donate blood for convalescent plasma if there's a place to do that in your area.

A multi-center randomized trial of convalescent plasma showed no survival benefit for severe COVID-19 pneumonia. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2031304
Oh - they're still advertising it on the front page of OneBlood. Sucks it doesn't work that well.

HPstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2863
  • Age: 37
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #139 on: December 08, 2020, 10:04:01 AM »
The first dose of Pfizer's Covid vaccine was given outside of the trial to a 90 year old woman in the UK today.

Dollar Slice

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9651
  • Age: 46
  • Location: New York City
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #140 on: December 08, 2020, 07:09:45 PM »
I'm not in any one of the groups that looks to be designated to get the vaccine early.

But apparently I got COVID in early October. A bit of sniffles and felt run down for 3 days. Didn't get tested at the time, but I've since tested positive for the antibodies for 3 times. Figure I am safe until next summer and will evaluate what's been learned at that time to determine if I want the vaccine.
Donate blood for convalescent plasma if there's a place to do that in your area.

A multi-center randomized trial of convalescent plasma showed no survival benefit for severe COVID-19 pneumonia. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2031304
Oh - they're still advertising it on the front page of OneBlood. Sucks it doesn't work that well.

There's still some research going on involving plasma from COVID survivors, so if you want to donate, go for it. I've been getting ads from a nearby hospital about it (Mt. Sinai). There's also blood shortages in a lot of places, while we're talking about it... even if you don't think plasma helps you could donate blood.

WhiteTrashCash

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1983
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #141 on: December 10, 2020, 06:38:22 AM »
I think it's really important to point out to people that technology for developing vaccines has improved tremendously over the past forty years, which is one of the main reasons why we can assume the COVID-19 vaccines are safe. It's kind of like how 40 years ago, people would poop their pants in excitement over getting an Apple II and today we can do video calls with people on the other side of the planet with our wristwatches. Times change, technology improves, and that shortens the amount of time necessary to develop effective vaccines.

DragonSlayer

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 217
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #142 on: December 10, 2020, 06:58:59 AM »
I think it's really important to point out to people that technology for developing vaccines has improved tremendously over the past forty years, which is one of the main reasons why we can assume the COVID-19 vaccines are safe. It's kind of like how 40 years ago, people would poop their pants in excitement over getting an Apple II and today we can do video calls with people on the other side of the planet with our wristwatches. Times change, technology improves, and that shortens the amount of time necessary to develop effective vaccines.

Heck, just having computers to do the calculations and run the data cuts massive time off of development compared to when it all had to be done by hand.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23224
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #143 on: December 10, 2020, 07:48:16 AM »
I think it's really important to point out to people that technology for developing vaccines has improved tremendously over the past forty years, which is one of the main reasons why we can assume the COVID-19 vaccines are safe. It's kind of like how 40 years ago, people would poop their pants in excitement over getting an Apple II and today we can do video calls with people on the other side of the planet with our wristwatches. Times change, technology improves, and that shortens the amount of time necessary to develop effective vaccines.

There have been some advances that help in speeding up development of vaccines.  There have been no advancements that allow us to guarantee the same level of safety as a normal vaccine for a novel vaccine developed in under a year though.  If we were not in a world-wide crisis, no government on Earth would authorize distribution of a vaccine that has undergone as little testing as the current coronavirus vaccines.

An awful lot of people have been working very hard to ensure that the vaccines are safe . . . and we've done everything possible to ensure safety.  If you're in a high risk group, the odds of the vaccine being less safe than catching coronavirus are vanishingly low.  But to claim that a vaccine of a type never before OK'd for use in humans, with reduced testing can be guaranteed safe because of advances in technology - this is simply false.

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2899
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #144 on: December 10, 2020, 02:31:23 PM »
I think it's really important to point out to people that technology for developing vaccines has improved tremendously over the past forty years, which is one of the main reasons why we can assume the COVID-19 vaccines are safe. It's kind of like how 40 years ago, people would poop their pants in excitement over getting an Apple II and today we can do video calls with people on the other side of the planet with our wristwatches. Times change, technology improves, and that shortens the amount of time necessary to develop effective vaccines.

There have been some advances that help in speeding up development of vaccines.  There have been no advancements that allow us to guarantee the same level of safety as a normal vaccine for a novel vaccine developed in under a year though.  If we were not in a world-wide crisis, no government on Earth would authorize distribution of a vaccine that has undergone as little testing as the current coronavirus vaccines.

An awful lot of people have been working very hard to ensure that the vaccines are safe . . . and we've done everything possible to ensure safety.  If you're in a high risk group, the odds of the vaccine being less safe than catching coronavirus are vanishingly low.  But to claim that a vaccine of a type never before OK'd for use in humans, with reduced testing can be guaranteed safe because of advances in technology - this is simply false.

The companies making the vaccines are just looking for emergency use authorization at the moment in the US (not sure about Canada or others).  My understanding is that's not a full up approval (any experts feel free to weigh in), just that we're pretty sure the vaccine is less risky than chancing getting COVID for certain groups of people.  Even with full approval, it only needs to be less risky than chancing getting sick. 

Jack0Life

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #145 on: December 10, 2020, 04:09:08 PM »
The FDA advisory panel just approved it for emergency usage.
Out of 23 members, 17 voted YES, 4 NO and 1 abstain.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2020, 04:15:43 PM by Jack0Life »

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4579
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #146 on: December 10, 2020, 04:12:47 PM »
The FDA advisory panel just approved it for emergency usage.
Out of 23 members, 17 voted YES, 5 NO and 1 abstain.

I think the panel recommended it, there is still another step for actual approval. It would be interesting to know why some said no.

Jack0Life

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #147 on: December 10, 2020, 04:17:52 PM »
The FDA advisory panel just approved it for emergency usage.
Out of 23 members, 17 voted YES, 5 NO and 1 abstain.

I think the panel recommended it, there is still another step for actual approval. It would be interesting to know why some said no.

The FDA usually 99.9% follow what the panel recommend.
This is just for emergency usage. The full approval won't come till much later.

PDXTabs

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5160
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Vancouver, WA, USA
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #148 on: December 10, 2020, 04:22:51 PM »
An awful lot of people have been working very hard to ensure that the vaccines are safe . . . and we've done everything possible to ensure safety.  If you're in a high risk group, the odds of the vaccine being less safe than catching coronavirus are vanishingly low.  But to claim that a vaccine of a type never before OK'd for use in humans, with reduced testing can be guaranteed safe because of advances in technology - this is simply false.

Yes, everything in life is risk/reward and there is absolutely no evidence that the cure is worse than the disease in this case.

bmjohnson35

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 668
Re: Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid
« Reply #149 on: December 10, 2020, 04:28:24 PM »

The cruise industry has taken a beating by Covid. I wonder if cruise lines are considering documented vaccination as a future requirement for passengers.