Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective for Covid

[toocold]

The first results are out on a vaccine.  90% effective, which is a very high number. 

Does this mean that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel?  I can begin travel arrangements..

"U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech announced Monday their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, hailing the development as “a great day for science and humanity.”"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

[Dibbels81]

Airline stocks up 25% premarket. Dow up 5%. Should be a great day. Very good news for everyone.

[rantk81]

This is great news.

One of the anchors on CNBC was already posing questions to the Pfizer CEO regarding the timeline of releasing this information -- in terms of possibly withholding the news until after the election.

I'm sure this discussion could dominate the right wing media and conspiracy theorists for months or years to come...

[habanero]

Apparently has to be kept at -80 degrees celsius (-112F) so logistics complicated. Remember need for low temp storage and multi-dose was two of the things the developers really hoped to be a ble to avoid.

[reeshau]

Apparently has to be kept at -80 degrees celsius (-112F) so logistics complicated. Remember need for low temp storage and multi-dose was two of the things the developers really hoped to be a ble to avoid.

Importantly, this is much colder than the flu vaccine, so that existing infrastructure is not adequate.  In a 60 Minutes story on Operation Warp Speed, they mentioned, for example, that the US Virgin Islands has no storage capability currently.

[talltexan]

Is Pfizer connected to Warp Speed? I've got a quote by their head of research saying they were not part of it, and haven't received money from the US government.

[reeshau]

Is Pfizer connected to Warp Speed? I've got a quote by their head of research saying they were not part of it, and haven't received money from the US government.

I don't know specifically, but a key part of Warp Speed is that the government was paying to manufacture the vaccines before approval, taking on the risk that they would be duds.  They also are coordinating the full kits:  needles, swabs, etc. As well as coordinating the distribution priority.  So, I don't know how they would distribute in the US without being connected.

[reeshau]

Is Pfizer connected to Warp Speed? I've got a quote by their head of research saying they were not part of it, and haven't received money from the US government.

Here is a Pfizer press release to the contrary.

https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2020/Pfizer-and-BioNTech-Announce-an-Agreement-with-U.S.-Government-for-up-to-600-Million-Doses-of-mRNA-based-Vaccine-Candidate-Against-SARS-CoV-2/default.aspx

[ReadySetMillionaire]

Is Pfizer connected to Warp Speed? I've got a quote by their head of research saying they were not part of it, and haven't received money from the US government.

Here is a Pfizer press release to the contrary.

https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2020/Pfizer-and-BioNTech-Announce-an-Agreement-with-U.S.-Government-for-up-to-600-Million-Doses-of-mRNA-based-Vaccine-Candidate-Against-SARS-CoV-2/default.aspx

In addition to this, arguably the most important part of Warp Speed is that it removed the FDA timeline requirements for normal vaccine development. Pfizer would not even be close to complete with Stage Two right now if the usual time requirements were in place.

They are pinning their current press release on not taking federal money (yet), but that is an absurd way to argue they were not part of Warp Speed.

ETA — even Senator Chris Murphy is calling out the reporting on Pfizer — https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1325810972142002177?s=20

“FYI a lot of people are tweeting about how Pfizer didn't accept government money for this vaccine. This isn't true. HHS did a $2 billion deal with Pfizer to guarantee a market for the vaccine, making Pfizer's R&D spend viable. Classic public/private partnership.”

[HPstache]

This is fantastic news

[ReadySetMillionaire]

This is fantastic news

Scientists in Britain are saying life could be "completely" back to normal by Spring. Wow.

[Hula Hoop]

This is fantastic news

Scientists in Britain are saying life could be "completely" back to normal by Spring. Wow.

Oh my GOD!!!!! This is so great.

[G-String]

Announcing this prior to the election would have hurt Joe Biden and possibly changed the results of the election.  With Trump threatening to lower the cost of drug prices, this makes sense from Pfizer's perspective. 

[John Galt incarnate!]

The first results are out on a vaccine.  90% effective, which is a very high number. 

Does this mean that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel? I can begin travel arrangements..

"U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech announced Monday their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, hailing the development as “a great day for science and humanity.”"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

Hooray!

[PDXTabs]

Is Pfizer connected to Warp Speed? I've got a quote by their head of research saying they were not part of it, and haven't received money from the US government.

Yes and no.

Pfizer, unlike its competitors, did not join Operation Warp Speed, the government initiative designed to erase the financial risk of vaccine and therapeutics development by providing funding to companies and helping coordinate the trials. Instead, Pfizer plowed $2 billion of its own money into the project and then struck a $1.95 billion contract with the U.S. government to provide 100 million doses, contingent on the vaccine being effective. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/09/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-effective/

[honeybbq]

This is great news.

One of the anchors on CNBC was already posing questions to the Pfizer CEO regarding the timeline of releasing this information -- in terms of possibly withholding the news until after the election.

I'm sure this discussion could dominate the right wing media and conspiracy theorists for months or years to come...

People didn't change their vote because of this. No way no how. Trump followers don't care about coronavirus so they wouldn't care about a vaccine, either.

[dandarc]

Maybe 6 months till we can all go to Applebee's as much as we want.

[mizzourah2006]

The 90% Effective statement still seems to be a bit pre-mature, but it does sound like very good news. It sounds like they are basically saying of the 94 people in the study so far that have tested positive for Covid ~85 of them were in the placebo group. But there were ~40k people in the study and it doesn't sound like there is routine testing. So it could be that people are still contracting and possibly spreading the virus, but are just now asymptomatic. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we are currently very concerned about asymptomatic people as well and given that such a very small proportion of the population gets seriously ill from the virus it still remains to be seen how much protection it may or may not provide to the most vulnerable in our population and that's what we truly care about. People not getting life-alteringly sick or dying. It also appears that none of the 94 confirmed cases in the study were even remotely close to being the severe cases we are currently very concerned about (in either the placebo or the treatment groups).

[G-String]

Announcing this prior to the election would have hurt Joe Biden and possibly changed the results of the election.  With Trump threatening to lower the cost of drug prices, this makes sense from Pfizer's perspective.

Trump made a lot of threats.  A lot of bluster.  He had four years to lower the cost of drug prices.  Perhaps he was too busy building his wall.

Unlikely this would have changed the results.   I don't think there were all that many people who were so close to the fence when they voted that this would have changed their vote.

I respectfully disagree, especially in looking at the number of ultra tight elections results in a number of states.  Just look at market sentiment today...it's like we went back to 'normal' overnight. 

[dandarc]

One thing is absolutely clear to me from the close results - Trump could have easily won the re-election if he could have found it in him to act like a responsible adult in a leadership position back in February / March.

[bigblock440]

Announcing this prior to the election would have hurt Joe Biden and possibly changed the results of the election.  With Trump threatening to lower the cost of drug prices, this makes sense from Pfizer's perspective.

Trump made a lot of threats.  A lot of bluster.  He had four years to lower the cost of drug prices.  Perhaps he was too busy building his wall.

Unlikely this would have changed the results.   I don't think there were all that many people who were so close to the fence when they voted that this would have changed their vote.

I understand that you probably didn't hear about it much (or at all) in the mainstream media, but he had been taking steps to do so.  At least insomuch as the president has the authority to do.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/trump-administration-takes-historic-steps-lower-us-prescription-drug-prices
https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/07/24/trump-administration-announces-historic-action-lower-drug-prices-americans.html
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-lowering-drug-prices-putting-america-first/

[phildonnia]

On the one hand, this is the great news we've been waiting for.  I am reminded of George Harrison's explanation of the origin and meaning of "Here Comes the Sun".  Let's all sing a verse together:

Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been clear
Here comes the sun, doo-n-doo-doo
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's all right

On the other hand, I realize the end of Covid-19 is not going to play out exactly as I imagined. 

I supposed that one day, they would announce that there was a vaccine.  People with last names starting with S-Z can show up on Thursday to get their shot.  Then proceed directly to the Mongolian Barbecue and Buffet.  Later we'll have a big crowded party with unrelated persons, which will end with a celebratory mask-burning ceremony.  Don't forget to book your cruise.

So, it's not going to be like that.  It's going to be a slow, gradual digging-out, with lingering psychological fears of germs in general, and continuing political crap from anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers.

But anyway,

Sun, sun, sun! Here it comes!

[GuitarStv]

Hoping for the best.  I'll be interested to see how many problems and complications this super duper fast tracked and "safety processes be damned let's hurry it up" vaccine ends up having.  Anyone in this thread planning on being first in line to take it?

[TrMama]

Hoping for the best.  I'll be interested to see how many problems and complications this super duper fast tracked and "safety processes be damned let's hurry it up" vaccine ends up having.  Anyone in this thread planning on being first in line to take it?

I'll be lining up as soon as it's available here. In fact, I'll line up for whichever vaccine is approved first in Canada. The risk of Covid is much, much greater than the risk from any vaccine. My kids will get it ASAP and I'll encourage all my friends and relatives to do the same.

Fast tracking has been achieved via carrying out development and production steps concurrently, rather than consecutively, which was the previous development timeline for vaccine development.

Source: BSc in Microbiology and Biochemistry.

[dandarc]

I'm not in anything anyone would consider a high risk group, but I am relatively young and healthy, so I'll gladly get the shot after those who are more immediately at risk from Covid have their turn. Basically what @TrMama said - vaccine risk is almost certainly lower than covid risk.

[mathlete]

Still a ways to go. And yeah it's a bit of a cumbersome vaccine. But this gets me excited.

[YttriumNitrate]

Hoping for the best.  I'll be interested to see how many problems and complications this super duper fast tracked and "safety processes be damned let's hurry it up" vaccine ends up having.  Anyone in this thread planning on being first in line to take it?

I'll probably get it as soon as it's convenient to do so, and that could mean a few months so after it is released to the public. I'd rather not wait five hours in line.

[Kris]

One thing is absolutely clear to me from the close results - Trump could have easily won the re-election if he could have found it in him to act like a responsible adult in a leadership position back in February / March.

Yep, exactly. Trump own-goaled himself into this defeat.

[Kris]

Hoping for the best.  I'll be interested to see how many problems and complications this super duper fast tracked and "safety processes be damned let's hurry it up" vaccine ends up having.  Anyone in this thread planning on being first in line to take it?

I'll be lining up as soon as it's available here. In fact, I'll line up for whichever vaccine is approved first in Canada. The risk of Covid is much, much greater than the risk from any vaccine. My kids will get it ASAP and I'll encourage all my friends and relatives to do the same.

Fast tracking has been achieved via carrying out development and production steps concurrently, rather than consecutively, which was the previous development timeline for vaccine development.

Source: BSc in Microbiology and Biochemistry.

Exactly. The speed of development has not been achieved by sacrificing safety protocols.

If this vaccine had been developed as part of Trump's bogus Operation Warp Speed, I'd be worried. But it hasn't, so I will definitely get it as soon as it's available to me, assuming something better doesn't come along in the meantime.

[habanero]

Also bear in mind that noone actually knows if this (or any other vaccine in development for that matter) actually prevents someone infected but vaccinated from spreading the disease on to someone else. This was pointed out by our CDC some time ago - this has potential implications for which group it is best to prioritize. If it is also effective at preventing spreading, those who normaly spread it might be better candidates than someone in a high-rish group. The high-risk ones (i.e the elderly) generally have far less social contact and less interactions with random strangers so this group is likely to be far less important vector for spreading.

[dandarc]

One thing is absolutely clear to me from the close results - Trump could have easily won the re-election if he could have found it in him to act like a responsible adult in a leadership position back in February / March.

Yep, exactly. Trump own-goaled himself into this defeat.

The faintest of silver linings to all the unnecessary death.

And RSM - I was debating whether I should point this out here, but you're still going hard with "the cure is worse than the disease!" bullshit on the other thread. So yeah life should be getting back to normal in spring more or less, except for those who will already be dead or dealing with long-term problems and their friends and families.

[dandarc]

Regardless of high-spread risk vs. high-covid risk, medical workers should be at the front of the line for sure on this. Whoever I was listening to on NPR said as much yesterday.

[wageslave23]

Regardless of high-spread risk vs. high-covid risk, medical workers should be at the front of the line for sure on this. Whoever I was listening to on NPR said as much yesterday.

Medical workers should be able to decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  Their patients can also decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  My wife is a nurse and absolutely does not want to be the guinea pig for a vaccine for a disease which has an extremely low likelihood of seriously affecting her.

[HPstache]

I'll take the vaccine as soon as I can get it

[dandarc]

Regardless of high-spread risk vs. high-covid risk, medical workers should be at the front of the line for sure on this. Whoever I was listening to on NPR said as much yesterday.

Medical workers should be able to decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  Their patients can also decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  My wife is a nurse and absolutely does not want to be the guinea pig for a vaccine for a disease which has an extremely low likelihood of seriously affecting her.

Fair point. Hospitals and schools and so on should also be free to make rules around this. Suppose I was thinking this would be like the front row of a roller coaster - the number of folks who want to be at the front being much larger than the available supply.

[dandarc]

Yep, I am in a tremendously privileged place financially. Has freed my mind to actually consider my beliefs. I used to listen and take seriously many of the right wing talking points that I now realize were complete and utter bullshit all along. And this has been very difficult for us, and yes we are in as good a position as anyone could reasonably hope for to deal with this. And this could have been much easier - almost everywhere in the world has been able to get on with life to varying extents without all the death this country has and will experience. If people hadn't been so reluctant to make any sacrifice at all.

You're also in a tremendously privileged place "I have more money than I know what to do with and will ask for and ignore advice on what to do with it."

[dandarc]

Back on topic - hurray for vaccine! Hunker down for maybe 6 more months and we'll be in a far better place. Going to get worse before it gets better, for well documented reasons, but the end is in sight!

[EricEng]

I understand that you probably didn't hear about it much (or at all) in the mainstream media, but he had been taking steps to do so.  At least insomuch as the president has the authority to do.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/trump-administration-takes-historic-steps-lower-us-prescription-drug-prices
https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/07/24/trump-administration-announces-historic-action-lower-drug-prices-americans.html
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-lowering-drug-prices-putting-america-first/

Trump's actions were toothless and ineffective either by design or incompetence (your choice).  It is all talk and no change.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/14/health-202-trump-issued-another-toothless-executive-order-drug-prices/
https://www.salon.com/2020/10/31/trump-touts-his-war-on-drug-prices-as-costs-continue-to-climb_partner/
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/519816-trumps-claims-on-lowering-prescription-drug-prices-are-only-campaign

Real change would have involved working with one of the many Democrat proposals from the house that actually worked to resolve the issue instead of trying to do it all via Executive Order.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-congress-pharmaceuticals/democrats-pass-u-s-bill-to-lower-drug-prices-that-trump-threatens-to-veto-idUSKBN1YG2EL
Instead he threatened to Veto it because of who wrote it.

[Abe]

I’d be cautious with the preliminary data. We will need to see final results when the target endpoint of infections is met. The number of infection events is quite low and susceptible to confounding from uncontrollable factors, thus needs to be analyzed in detail.

[dandarc]

I’d be cautious with the preliminary data. We will need to see final results when the target endpoint of infections is met. The number of infection events is quite low and susceptible to confounding from uncontrollable factors, thus needs to be analyzed in detail.

What is normal for a new vaccine? Article said Pfizer and FDA were arguing over whether to check the results at about 30 positives vs. about 60 positives. But they argued long enough there were over 90 cases when they un-blinded the study to examine the results. And the next checkpoint is at about 160 positive tests.

[Caoineag]

I will happy to get this vaccine once I am eligible. That won't be for some time though. My home state has already decided on a priority list and I am very much at the bottom. Maybe I can get it in 2022? At least it will be nice that the medical staff who want it will be able to get it.

[dandarc]

I will happy to get this vaccine once I am eligible. That won't be for some time though. My home state has already decided on a priority list and I am very much at the bottom. Maybe I can get it in 2022? At least it will be nice that the medical staff who want it will be able to get it.

There's 3 other vaccines in late stage trials. Pfizer was the first one to announce, but the others are probably going to ultimately prove effective and safe as well. Takes time of course.

Pfizer went out of their way to clarify they were not part of operation Warp Speed as they thought the program would actually slow them down. Hard to argue when they were the first to get a big positive result.

[Abe]

I’d be cautious with the preliminary data. We will need to see final results when the target endpoint of infections is met. The number of infection events is quite low and susceptible to confounding from uncontrollable factors, thus needs to be analyzed in detail.

What is normal for a new vaccine? Article said Pfizer and FDA were arguing over whether to check the results at about 30 positives vs. about 60 positives. But they argued long enough there were over 90 cases when they un-blinded the study to examine the results. And the next checkpoint is at about 160 positive tests.

That's a good question regarding number of events and statistics that I don't have a straight-forward answer to, partly due to lack of expertise and partly due to lack of a good calculation that's accepted. I found a few RCTs of influenza vaccines, and in general those trials had confirmed infection rates of 2.6% - 11.1%. This trial had a confirmed infection rate (so far) of 94/38955 = 0.2%, so an order of magnitude lower than the influenza trials. This is obviously a back-of-the-envelope calculation, but the combination of limited Phase I/II data and smaller percentage of events than in other respiratory illness vaccine trials suggests that further events will be needed to confirm the results. Hence the trial design assuming 164 events needed to have a 90% power.

I think they should start ramping up, because an effect size this high is usually real (though may be lower in the final analysis), but with the caveat that further data is needed for widespread use. Under an emergency authorization it is warranted that high-risk individuals have an option of receiving it.

[MudPuppy]

Yes other vaccines are in similar stages and this has been public knowledge for at least a couple weeks now and is not a reflection of political machinations. Large organizations have been running what-if plans for distribution of whatever makes it to EUA. I feel reasonably confident it will happen without snarls of biblical proportions.


As far as receiving the vaccine, I’ve been a participant in an actual vaccine experiment (not approved like these will be) so my risk tolerance is likely not typical.


Humor tax

[bmjohnson35]

Great News.

Hopefully we will be in a much better place this time next year.

[gimmi80]

Regardless of high-spread risk vs. high-covid risk, medical workers should be at the front of the line for sure on this. Whoever I was listening to on NPR said as much yesterday.

Medical workers should be able to decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  Their patients can also decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  My wife is a nurse and absolutely does not want to be the guinea pig for a vaccine for a disease which has an extremely low likelihood of seriously affecting her.

No way they will be allowed to decide, it will be mandatory. Military and medical personnel have mandated vaccines due to professional exposure. At the university where I work the flu shot is mandatory... 

[MudPuppy]

Regardless of high-spread risk vs. high-covid risk, medical workers should be at the front of the line for sure on this. Whoever I was listening to on NPR said as much yesterday.

Medical workers should be able to decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  Their patients can also decide if they want to be at the front of the line.  My wife is a nurse and absolutely does not want to be the guinea pig for a vaccine for a disease which has an extremely low likelihood of seriously affecting her.

No way they will be allowed to decide, it will be mandatory. Military and medical personnel have mandated vaccines due to professional exposure. At the university where I work the flu shot is mandatory...

Nah, no way medical is mandatory. Military miiiight be, but medical will be voluntary only, at least while the vaccines are EUA only.

[Abe]

I agree they won’t be mandatory due to the emergency use authorization. Non-vaccinating employees will have to continue to wear masks.

[habanero]

Non-vaccinating employees will have to continue to wear masks.

Again, noone knows if this, or any other vaccine, prevents you from infecting others or not. All they know is that it is effective at preventing you from getting (very) sick with a high probability. In other words, it is very likely effective at preventing a bad outcome but might have zero effect on the actual spread of the disease. I'm not an expert in this, but this point, which is a bit counterintuitive, has been pointed out by our CDC several times during vaccine development. Hence, it is not entirely obvious who should get it first, it depends on what a vaccine does or doesn't.

If "only" preventing a bad outcome, then the high-risk-group the most obvious candidate. If also effective at preventing spread, then attacking the main spreading vectors is also a viable strategy given limited supply in the early phase.

[Segare]

I will not be getting the vaccine. I haven't for years and I am not starting now.  I figured we needed to hear from the other side, seems most people on the forum are for it.

I did not read the data on the trials, but 90%?  It seems to me that over 90% of the people without a vaccine are just fine. Only a small percentage of those testing positive don't feel good and an even smaller percent of that don't live.