Pessimism cannon

[dude]

If MMM carries an Optimism Gun, then Grantham carries a Pessimism Cannon.  I tend to be optimistic about the short-term, and about my station in life, but confess to a pretty dark pessimism about the long-term fate of humanity in this era of global climate change.  At any rate, pp. 17-25 of GMO's Quarterly Report for Q3 2015 are well worth reading:

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf

[Bajadoc]

Forget about the pessimism cannon, it won't work anyway.

[NotJen]

Forget about the pessimism cannon, it won't work anyway.

Hahaha - thanks, I'm feeling pretty crappy today, and this gave me a good laugh :)

[eljefe-speaks]

What's GMO?

[DaveR]

His favorite false proposition: the US ranks last in foreign aid generosity at 0.2% of GDP.

But wait. Isn't the US first in foreign aid generosity, giving $31bn, more than any other country?

I'm confused. Last? or first?

Grantham could have opened with another Twain quote about lies, damned lies, and statistics. It's all in how you look at it...

[dude]

His favorite false proposition: the US ranks last in foreign aid generosity at 0.2% of GDP.

But wait. Isn't the US first in foreign aid generosity, giving $31bn, more than any other country?

I'm confused. Last? or first?

Grantham could have opened with another Twain quote about lies, damned lies, and statistics. It's all in how you look at it...

Well, Dave, maybe in absolute dollars we give the most, but I think percentage of GDP is a better gauge personally. I mean, Bill Gates giving $1million is the equivalent of me giving $5! 

Funny line about the pessimism cannon not working, bajadoc!

[Le Poisson]

What's GMO?

from GMO.com - the website that this PDF was peeled from:

GMO is a global investment management firm committed to providing sophisticated clients with superior asset management solutions. Our sole business is investment management and, as a private partnership, we are accountable only to our clients and to ourselves. We forge strong partnerships with our clients, managing their money as if it were our own and offering them honest counsel. Our deep and talented investment teams are highly experienced and forward-thinking, investing with focused expertise in a wide range of asset classes.

[DaveR]

Well, Dave, maybe in absolute dollars we give the most, but I think percentage of GDP is a better gauge personally. I mean, Bill Gates giving $1million is the equivalent of me giving $5! 

I think we are both the best and the worst. You need both numbers to gauge. And interesting that you mention Gates, as their foundation is one of the largest private aid providers in the world. US private aid exceeds public aid, so what the government gives is not the whole picture. A number is just a number, but the context in which it is presented makes all the difference.

At least Grantham isn't all talk. His private foundation spends tens of million annually on climate change initiatives.

[dude]

Also from GMO, speaking of pessimism, is their 7-year forecast for equities.  It looks abysmal:

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-class-forecasts/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-(oct-2015).pdf?sfvrsn=2