Author Topic: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?  (Read 12518 times)

Meggslynn

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Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« on: December 11, 2014, 09:42:17 PM »
I work for a large drilling contractor. With the oil prices plummeting lay offs are unavoidable. I am about 70% sure I won't be let go as there is much more obvious choices for cleaning house but you can never be sure. Even though I have a very very healthy emergency account and can easily cut expenses and have zero debt (besides small mortgage) I feel a tad nervous. I know I would be fine but I really enjoy the position I am in so I don't want to lose that.
I feel really bad for my co workers though as they are freaking out. Most of them are maxed out and living pay to pay.  Previous to this crash in oil prices my hubby and I were considering on building a new house as ours has a few inconveniences and we were planning on getting me a larger vehicle now that we have a kid. I am so glad I didn't. This really put things into perspective for me.

Rangifer

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2014, 09:56:16 PM »
Not personally, but I'm sure plenty of folks are freaking out around here too.

4-6 months from now I expect there to be some really good deals on diesel 250s/2500s and all sorts of powersport toys...

FireYourJob

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2014, 10:17:32 PM »
It's certainly affected my portfolio but is creating a once a decade buying opportunity

Cwadda

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2014, 03:13:05 AM »
I'm a student studying geoscience and environment science and the drop has had me recently worrying about my major a bit.

Vorpal

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2014, 07:16:23 AM »
I'm a student studying geoscience and environment science and the drop has had me recently worrying about my major a bit.

If you don't skimp on the environmental science part, you always have the option of working as an environmental/regulatory specialist (working either for the state DEQ or for industry... oftentimes the former first, then the latter after gaining experience). Falling oil prices mainly (negatively) affect the oil & gas production industry; if you can get plugged into the petrochemical industry as a whole, your employment options are much greater -- as is your job security.

rocksinmyhead

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2014, 07:44:11 AM »
I'm an exploration geologist, so yep. at least they keep telling us we are well hedged for a couple years, and people keep talking about how this actually could be a good time for acquisitions as smaller companies with more debt or less economic plays can't hack it... but either way, I too am VERY glad to have a healthy liquid net worth and low fixed expenses :) people have been telling me since I started 3 years ago how cyclical the industry is, so honestly I think it's pretty stupid if people DON'T plan for the worst even if they aren't particularly mustachian!

but yeah, it's kind of annoying to keep hearing the media talk about how awesome low gasoline prices are... not awesome for me! even if I keep my job, my bonus is gonna suck next year! :P
« Last Edit: December 12, 2014, 07:45:56 AM by rocksinmyhead »

Meggslynn

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2014, 08:43:08 AM »
I'm an exploration geologist, so yep. at least they keep telling us we are well hedged for a couple years, and people keep talking about how this actually could be a good time for acquisitions as smaller companies with more debt or less economic plays can't hack it... but either way, I too am VERY glad to have a healthy liquid net worth and low fixed expenses :) people have been telling me since I started 3 years ago how cyclical the industry is, so honestly I think it's pretty stupid if people DON'T plan for the worst even if they aren't particularly mustachian!

but yeah, it's kind of annoying to keep hearing the media talk about how awesome low gasoline prices are... not awesome for me! even if I keep my job, my bonus is gonna suck next year! :P

Me too :(

I took on a lot of additional work this year and got my last and highest designation so I was anticipating a 10% raise and now I will be very lucky if its 3%.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2014, 12:10:40 PM by Meggslynn »

Angie55

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2014, 08:54:56 AM »
Yeah, its killing one of my old retirement accounts. Dumb, young me put 100% in Exxon stocks when I worked there. I was going to rebalance in July and consolidate accounts. I didn't.... Its gone down down 6% since then and I expect it to continue to drop. Not really sure what to do now. Do I leave it in and let it fix itself or pull out now and just get over losing thousands?

babysnowbyrd

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2014, 09:15:37 AM »
I work for an oilfield services company. Despite the lowering prices, we've actually been ramping up production, but that may be only because the money has already been allocated for the rest of the quarter. January might be looking pretty slim.

I'm pretty low on the totem pole, and while I'm pretty sure I'm ok, I still get nervous because I have a lot of debt I'm paying off, not much cushion. I don't much like the job but it pays decently. I used to work three jobs to cover the debts, but with recent overtime I haven't had time for the other (plus it's WAY more lucrative to work OT for this job than the low-wage PT jobs before.)

I can't wait to get to the point where (1) things like this won't worry me because I'll have a good stash and be debt-free and (2) I could even be in a position to take advantage of cheaper investment opportunities and (3) I can be doing something I like better.

We'll see how things are going next year. I might need to pick those other jobs back up again. :(


shotgunwilly

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2014, 09:29:41 AM »
Yeah, its killing one of my old retirement accounts. Dumb, young me put 100% in Exxon stocks when I worked there. I was going to rebalance in July and consolidate accounts. I didn't.... Its gone down down 6% since then and I expect it to continue to drop. Not really sure what to do now. Do I leave it in and let it fix itself or pull out now and just get over losing thousands?

Don't touch it.

MoneyCat

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2014, 10:14:59 AM »
I had just maxed out my Roth IRA for the year and then this oil plummet struck.  Just dandy.

slugline

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2014, 10:31:49 AM »
I live and work in the vicinity of the corporate center of the energy industry in the U.S., but am not actually part of it. Accepting volatility is part of the game for those that are.

Personally, I may be looking forward to a less-congested commute, but that's it.... Maybe the inflation in rents/housing will finally level off too.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2014, 10:34:06 AM by slugline »

Undecided

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2014, 11:04:03 AM »
Anyone effected by a poor grasp of English this year?

shelivesthedream

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2014, 11:13:10 AM »
Anyone effected by a poor grasp of English this year?

I always enjoy reading what such sentences actually say (i.e. that something is making something else happen). It's usually the opposite of what they mean, so this sometimes effects significant amusement.

Meggslynn

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2014, 12:09:23 PM »
Anyone effected by a poor grasp of English this year?

Hello, nice to meet you. Are you the forum bully?

I was typing this in bed and I half asleep. Quick to judge are we?




Cwadda

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2014, 12:26:21 PM »
Quote
If you don't skimp on the environmental science part, you always have the option of working as an environmental/regulatory specialist (working either for the state DEQ or for industry... oftentimes the former first, then the latter after gaining experience). Falling oil prices mainly (negatively) affect the oil & gas production industry; if you can get plugged into the petrochemical industry as a whole, your employment options are much greater -- as is your job security.

Quote
^This. I worked in the environmental compliance field (industrial waste) and there are lots of regulatory jobs out there at the fed, state, and county levels as well as in private industry besides oil and gas.

Thanks for the input. I'm working in environmental right now (industrial hygiene) for a private firm. It's a pretty good field. Also I'm getting a Masters right away to increase employability.

gimp

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2014, 12:29:58 PM »
Yeah, its killing one of my old retirement accounts. Dumb, young me put 100% in Exxon stocks when I worked there. I was going to rebalance in July and consolidate accounts. I didn't.... Its gone down down 6% since then and I expect it to continue to drop. Not really sure what to do now. Do I leave it in and let it fix itself or pull out now and just get over losing thousands?

Don't touch it.

I'm thinking of buying some. Anyone know a good vanguard index for oil companies? I figure VDE is the proper ETF. Wait a bit until people start panicking, put a few grand in there... yum.

SimpleGuy

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2014, 12:32:46 PM »
Yep, I'm a state employee and practically all of the state's income comes from oil. Projections are for a $3.5 billion shortfall and the new governor is talking about significant cuts.

Another Reader

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2014, 12:39:32 PM »
Seen this movie before and I know how it ends.  Looking forward to picking up some XLE and some individual companies as reality sets in.  Also some really cheap Houston real estate a couple of years from now if we get deeper into the down side of the cycle. 

Cwadda

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2014, 12:44:16 PM »
Yeah, its killing one of my old retirement accounts. Dumb, young me put 100% in Exxon stocks when I worked there. I was going to rebalance in July and consolidate accounts. I didn't.... Its gone down down 6% since then and I expect it to continue to drop. Not really sure what to do now. Do I leave it in and let it fix itself or pull out now and just get over losing thousands?

Don't touch it.

I'm thinking of buying some. Anyone know a good vanguard index for oil companies? I figure VDE is the proper ETF. Wait a bit until people start panicking, put a few grand in there... yum.

For reference:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/holdings?FundId=0951&FundIntExt=INT#tab=1

3 weeks left until new Roth maxing and currently licking my lips.

greaper007

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2014, 12:56:23 PM »
You guys realize that in 6 months to a year (when gas is back at $3.50+) everyone on this thread is going to be talking about how smart they were to work in the oil and gas field, right?

When I graduated high school in the late 90s gas was $1.00 a gallon, I wanted to be a pilot and the airlines were hiring like gangbusters.    Fast forward a few years and 9-11 hits, gas goes up, and everyone told me that aviation was the worst field ever to be in.   Then a couple of years later the airlines were hiring anyone with a pulse again.    In fact, I got hired with about 500hours total time (not even legal anymore).    I'm not even sure what the conversation is right now.   I think it's back at gangbusters after a year or so of doom and gloom a few years ago.

It's cyclical.    You might get laid off for a few months but the industry will rebound and you'll have a job again.   No use worrying about things that are completely out of your control, like OPEC.    Just stay in a financial position where you can reasonably support yourself for a year and a half or so.

acroy

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2014, 01:35:10 PM »
yeah I work in an industry that uses petroleum products as an input

We're super stoked right now :)

Cwadda

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2014, 02:29:45 PM »
Quote
If you don't skimp on the environmental science part, you always have the option of working as an environmental/regulatory specialist (working either for the state DEQ or for industry... oftentimes the former first, then the latter after gaining experience). Falling oil prices mainly (negatively) affect the oil & gas production industry; if you can get plugged into the petrochemical industry as a whole, your employment options are much greater -- as is your job security.

Quote
^This. I worked in the environmental compliance field (industrial waste) and there are lots of regulatory jobs out there at the fed, state, and county levels as well as in private industry besides oil and gas.

Thanks for the input. I'm working in environmental right now (industrial hygiene) for a private firm. It's a pretty good field. Also I'm getting a Masters right away to increase employability.
Lots of different areas of environmental beside oil and gas (although they are the biggie even now and really don't expect that to change). I still hold my prof. licenses so am always getting jobs sent to me in all sorts of environmental fields - even though I actually worked on the enforcement end of things  - kind of like this job but in Calif https://vthr.peoplesoft.state.vt.us/psc/VTHR/EMPLOYEE/HRMS/c/HRS_HRAM.HRS_CE.GBL?Page=HRS_CE_JOB_DTL&Action=A&JobOpeningId=616086&SiteId=1&PostingSeq=1& - so different from most other's here. If you're flexible then you'll never have a problem finding a decent job. Governments a big employer too  but much less pay than private sector.
Lots and lots of options for you out there.

Good to know! I figure getting a dual degree in Geo and Environmental, a specialized MSc, having certifications (Hazwoper, Asbestos Monitoring, Lead), plus work experience in environmental can expand the horizons and open up the options out there!

BlueMR2

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2014, 04:24:35 PM »
It's very positive for us.  Sales of clown cars (and trucks) are booming with cheap gas, and our industry seems to trail along with that.

vern

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2014, 08:29:27 PM »
Ladies and gentlemen, if I say I'm an oil man I think you'd agree. 

The timing of this price drop is a bad thing for my company.  My new well has just come in at Coyote Hills and I had to see about it. 

I have a string of tools ready to put to work, but with oil at less than $60 dollars a barrel it almost isn't worth the effort to drill.

I'm fixed like no other company in this business.  But you see the railroads and their shipping costs will negate any profits likely to be had. 

Perhaps I can run a pipeline to the coast and make a deal with Union Oil.  But this William Bandy character is boosting his price on the lease.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2014, 12:29:40 AM by vern »

FireYourJob

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2014, 11:18:01 PM »
right now I'm recommending WLL, OAS and if you don't mind a little more debt on the balance sheet, PVA.  Obama's either about to start a big f'n war with Russian (while we're simultaneously gutting our military and military leadership) or oil won't be down here for very long. 

It certainly won't plunge much lower than here for very long or you'll see terrorist attacks in random places across the globe taking supply out of the market and shooting the price back up.  There are way too many countries with way too many bad guys that rely 70%+ or more on petro dollars.  At their current basket price, they are not making money and those countries are generally more in debt than America and don't have the benefit of running their printing press like we do.

This is all by and large about Russia invading Ukraine and a distant second, America becoming energy independent and the largest producer of energy now on the planet. 

Interestingly enough, Obama and the environmentalists didn't want this to happen (his own energy secretary stated he wanted gas to be $7 a gallon so we all started riding bikes to work, etc).  However, the E&P industry created a tsunami of production that no one expected as good ol American ingenuity developed new and unique ways to tease oil out of the ground.

I believe this may be the buying opportunity that takes years off my working life and setsa 4% withdrawal rate much higher and sooner than I expected.

There is blood in the streets now.

Middlesbrough

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #26 on: December 13, 2014, 01:37:01 AM »
Does it inhibit the budget of my industry? Yes.
Will I lose my job? 99% no.
Will I lean on other technical areas in my industry to negate the difference? Most likely.

Net, slightly negative.

libertarian4321

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #27 on: December 13, 2014, 02:48:19 AM »
I'm a student studying geoscience and environment science and the drop has had me recently worrying about my major a bit.

The drop in crude oil costs should have a negligible effect on environmental careers.  Yeah, if it continues long term, there will be less env. work in the oil/energy sector.

But most of the jobs in that field are with the government, and a short term "blip" in the oil sector won't matter much.

- an environmental engineer with 29 years experience, currently on furlough due to a government screw up (and not worried at all- I'm on "funemployment," reading a stack of books I never had a chance to read.

libertarian4321

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #28 on: December 13, 2014, 03:07:56 AM »
right now I'm recommending WLL, OAS and if you don't mind a little more debt on the balance sheet, PVA.  Obama's either about to start a big f'n war with Russian (while we're simultaneously gutting our military and military leadership) or oil won't be down here for very long. 

It certainly won't plunge much lower than here for very long or you'll see terrorist attacks in random places across the globe taking supply out of the market and shooting the price back up.  There are way too many countries with way too many bad guys that rely 70%+ or more on petro dollars.  At their current basket price, they are not making money and those countries are generally more in debt than America and don't have the benefit of running their printing press like we do.

This is all by and large about Russia invading Ukraine and a distant second, America becoming energy independent and the largest producer of energy now on the planet. 

Interestingly enough, Obama and the environmentalists didn't want this to happen (his own energy secretary stated he wanted gas to be $7 a gallon so we all started riding bikes to work, etc).  However, the E&P industry created a tsunami of production that no one expected as good ol American ingenuity developed new and unique ways to tease oil out of the ground.

I believe this may be the buying opportunity that takes years off my working life and setsa 4% withdrawal rate much higher and sooner than I expected.

Yes, we have new ways of tapping previously unavailable oil.

That, however is pretty IRRELEVANT.

Yes, we can get the oil.  At $100 or even $80 a barrel, we can pump shale oil all day.  Woo Hoo, Happy Days are here again, and all that.

But can we get it and sell it for $57 a barrel and still stay profitable?

Probably not.

And really, it doesn't have a damned thing to do with "Obama and environmentalists."  It's all about whether Saudi, Kuwaiti, Russian, etc producers can undercut the price of US shale oil.  And at $57/barrel, they can...

Albert

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #29 on: December 13, 2014, 03:24:17 AM »
Russians certainly can not, they are counting on 100 $/barrel oil as well. Recession is forecast for next year in that country, partially because of oil prices and partially because of Western sanctions. If you believe the official numbers 60 $ is a bit too cheap for Saudis as well, but with their enormous currency reserves they can go at that price for a decade at least. Might be a sound business plan to run American and Canadian shale oil and tar sands producers out of business and at the same time punish their main geopolitical rivals (Iran and Russia). Some collateral damage like Nigeria and Venezuela but who cares about them?

soccerluvof4

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #30 on: December 13, 2014, 07:30:30 AM »
Being in transportation on the business side its definitely been great!!  Investment side some really good opportunities are starting to present themselves. 

surfhb

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #31 on: December 14, 2014, 04:22:42 PM »
Come on now folks!     Do you think these prices will last forever?     This time next year we'll be paying $4.00 again

hdatontodo

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #32 on: December 14, 2014, 06:04:08 PM »
Quote
Quick to judge are we?

Write like Yoda speaks, do I?

Malloy

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #33 on: December 15, 2014, 02:01:25 PM »
I work for a large drilling contractor. With the oil prices plummeting lay offs are unavoidable. I am about 70% sure I won't be let go as there is much more obvious choices for cleaning house but you can never be sure. Even though I have a very very healthy emergency account and can easily cut expenses and have zero debt (besides small mortgage) I feel a tad nervous. I know I would be fine but I really enjoy the position I am in so I don't want to lose that.
I feel really bad for my co workers though as they are freaking out. Most of them are maxed out and living pay to pay.  Previous to this crash in oil prices my hubby and I were considering on building a new house as ours has a few inconveniences and we were planning on getting me a larger vehicle now that we have a kid. I am so glad I didn't. This really put things into perspective for me.

I have no opinion about the price of oil, but I was struck by these sentences.  Anyone else think building a new house over "a few inconveniences" and the trotting out of the old "larger vehicle now that we have a kid" are face-punch worthy?  Just out of curiosity...how big would that new house have been?  What kind of larger vehicle, and what are you currently driving?  I feel like at least one of the cars is bound to be a clown car.

Meggslynn

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #34 on: December 15, 2014, 03:38:21 PM »
I work for a large drilling contractor. With the oil prices plummeting lay offs are unavoidable. I am about 70% sure I won't be let go as there is much more obvious choices for cleaning house but you can never be sure. Even though I have a very very healthy emergency account and can easily cut expenses and have zero debt (besides small mortgage) I feel a tad nervous. I know I would be fine but I really enjoy the position I am in so I don't want to lose that.
I feel really bad for my co workers though as they are freaking out. Most of them are maxed out and living pay to pay.  Previous to this crash in oil prices my hubby and I were considering on building a new house as ours has a few inconveniences and we were planning on getting me a larger vehicle now that we have a kid. I am so glad I didn't. This really put things into perspective for me.

I have no opinion about the price of oil, but I was struck by these sentences.  Anyone else think building a new house over "a few inconveniences" and the trotting out of the old "larger vehicle now that we have a kid" are face-punch worthy?  Just out of curiosity...how big would that new house have been?  What kind of larger vehicle, and what are you currently driving?  I feel like at least one of the cars is bound to be a clown car.

Our current house is about 1400 sq ft. Our new house would of been the same size but would of had a backyard (which we currently don't have) and a bathroom that can fit more than a toothbrush on either side of the sink and can fit two people comfortably (as is required for bathing and potty training).
My current car is a Kia Rio5 hatchback. I was looking at a used mid size sedan or a used mazda5. One that would fit the stroller in the trunk and had higher safety ratings as I have to commute on two lane highways to an industrial park.
The plummeting oil prices have made me realize that while we can very comfortably afford to move to a different house and get a better car we are making do just fine right now.

Malloy

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #35 on: December 16, 2014, 11:07:39 AM »
I work for a large drilling contractor. With the oil prices plummeting lay offs are unavoidable. I am about 70% sure I won't be let go as there is much more obvious choices for cleaning house but you can never be sure. Even though I have a very very healthy emergency account and can easily cut expenses and have zero debt (besides small mortgage) I feel a tad nervous. I know I would be fine but I really enjoy the position I am in so I don't want to lose that.
I feel really bad for my co workers though as they are freaking out. Most of them are maxed out and living pay to pay.  Previous to this crash in oil prices my hubby and I were considering on building a new house as ours has a few inconveniences and we were planning on getting me a larger vehicle now that we have a kid. I am so glad I didn't. This really put things into perspective for me.

I have no opinion about the price of oil, but I was struck by these sentences.  Anyone else think building a new house over "a few inconveniences" and the trotting out of the old "larger vehicle now that we have a kid" are face-punch worthy?  Just out of curiosity...how big would that new house have been?  What kind of larger vehicle, and what are you currently driving?  I feel like at least one of the cars is bound to be a clown car.

Our current house is about 1400 sq ft. Our new house would of been the same size but would of had a backyard (which we currently don't have) and a bathroom that can fit more than a toothbrush on either side of the sink and can fit two people comfortably (as is required for bathing and potty training).
My current car is a Kia Rio5 hatchback. I was looking at a used mid size sedan or a used mazda5. One that would fit the stroller in the trunk and had higher safety ratings as I have to commute on two lane highways to an industrial park.
The plummeting oil prices have made me realize that while we can very comfortably afford to move to a different house and get a better car we are making do just fine right now.

whoa-I was totally off base.  My apologies. I'm obviously jaded, because when I hear those things, it typically means 1. upgrade from  3000 sq. ft. house to 4500 sq. ft. and 2. trade in 4Runner for Excursion.  Because, you know, the children.   

TrulyStashin

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #36 on: December 16, 2014, 11:28:15 AM »
Yeah, its killing one of my old retirement accounts. Dumb, young me put 100% in Exxon stocks when I worked there. I was going to rebalance in July and consolidate accounts. I didn't.... Its gone down down 6% since then and I expect it to continue to drop. Not really sure what to do now. Do I leave it in and let it fix itself or pull out now and just get over losing thousands?

Don't touch it.

+1.  The current low prices are a deliberate, strategic play by the Saudis/ OPEC.  They're increasing production to drive prices down so that N. American/ Russian producers are squeezed out of the market.  Once enough blood has been shed to protect OPEC's market share, they'll cut production to drive prices up again.

The low prices we're seeing now are temporary.

Meggslynn

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #37 on: December 16, 2014, 11:47:59 AM »
I work for a large drilling contractor. With the oil prices plummeting lay offs are unavoidable. I am about 70% sure I won't be let go as there is much more obvious choices for cleaning house but you can never be sure. Even though I have a very very healthy emergency account and can easily cut expenses and have zero debt (besides small mortgage) I feel a tad nervous. I know I would be fine but I really enjoy the position I am in so I don't want to lose that.
I feel really bad for my co workers though as they are freaking out. Most of them are maxed out and living pay to pay.  Previous to this crash in oil prices my hubby and I were considering on building a new house as ours has a few inconveniences and we were planning on getting me a larger vehicle now that we have a kid. I am so glad I didn't. This really put things into perspective for me.

I have no opinion about the price of oil, but I was struck by these sentences.  Anyone else think building a new house over "a few inconveniences" and the trotting out of the old "larger vehicle now that we have a kid" are face-punch worthy?  Just out of curiosity...how big would that new house have been?  What kind of larger vehicle, and what are you currently driving?  I feel like at least one of the cars is bound to be a clown car.

Our current house is about 1400 sq ft. Our new house would of been the same size but would of had a backyard (which we currently don't have) and a bathroom that can fit more than a toothbrush on either side of the sink and can fit two people comfortably (as is required for bathing and potty training).
My current car is a Kia Rio5 hatchback. I was looking at a used mid size sedan or a used mazda5. One that would fit the stroller in the trunk and had higher safety ratings as I have to commute on two lane highways to an industrial park.
The plummeting oil prices have made me realize that while we can very comfortably afford to move to a different house and get a better car we are making do just fine right now.

whoa-I was totally off base.  My apologies. I'm obviously jaded, because when I hear those things, it typically means 1. upgrade from  3000 sq. ft. house to 4500 sq. ft. and 2. trade in 4Runner for Excursion.  Because, you know, the children.

No worries.
I am a big fan of smaller cars. I don't like driving those massive trucks and SUVs that are everywhere around me but the fact that my car doesn't even fit a fold up stroller is frustrating. Also, we love our house but whoever designed the bathroom really should be given a smack upside their head and of course a backyard for the kiddo to run around in would be nice. I am a big fan of smaller homes too. I find they are cozier and I would never want the responsibility of cleaning a big house. I would much rather spend the time playing with my kiddo than cleaning our house.

Albert

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #38 on: December 16, 2014, 12:09:45 PM »
+1.  The current low prices are a deliberate, strategic play by the Saudis/ OPEC.  They're increasing production to drive prices down so that N. American/ Russian producers are squeezed out of the market.  Once enough blood has been shed to protect OPEC's market share, they'll cut production to drive prices up again.

The low prices we're seeing now are temporary.

Or maybe it's Americans who arranged with their allies Saudis to keep prices low for a year or two to bankrupt Russians, Iranians and Venezuelans. Or maybe it's all because of high production volumes in US and weak demand in Europe or perhaps it's all just random fluctuations. It's all just guesswork. As they say those who speak a lot don't know anything and those who know a lot speak little.

TrulyStashin

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #39 on: December 18, 2014, 01:45:59 PM »
+1.  The current low prices are a deliberate, strategic play by the Saudis/ OPEC.  They're increasing production to drive prices down so that N. American/ Russian producers are squeezed out of the market.  Once enough blood has been shed to protect OPEC's market share, they'll cut production to drive prices up again.

The low prices we're seeing now are temporary.

Or maybe it's Americans who arranged with their allies Saudis to keep prices low for a year or two to bankrupt Russians, Iranians and Venezuelans. Or maybe it's all because of high production volumes in US and weak demand in Europe or perhaps it's all just random fluctuations. It's all just guesswork. As they say those who speak a lot don't know anything and those who know a lot speak little.

If you knew anything about the U.S oil/ gas extraction industry, you'd know how absurd your first sentence is.    Perhaps you can practice disagreeing without being disagreeable (and insulting) to others.

rocksinmyhead

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #40 on: December 18, 2014, 03:48:33 PM »
either way, the low prices are temporary and Exxon will be fine, so I think everyone's advice still stands :)

sol

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #41 on: December 18, 2014, 03:53:55 PM »
It's all about whether Saudi, Kuwaiti, Russian, etc producers can undercut the price of US shale oil.  And at $57/barrel, they can...

There are some very smart people in those countries, pulling these strings.  They must have a plan, an objective, a goal and a timeline.  You don't just go upsetting the global commodity market on a whim.

And there are some very smart people working in underground offices in Washington DC who try to predict what will happen when that first group of smart people starts tinkering.  There are scenario response plans, and confidential personality profiles of key players, and decision trees, and a thriving industry of folks whose job it is to brief the President on what will happen next week, next month, next year.   I just can't believe that the price of oil is randomly down for no reason and nobody knows what might happen, or when. 

We're talking about an industry that literally makes trillions of dollars per year, more than every tech company you've ever heard of combined, more than any nation state.  If there is any single industry that can afford to think ahead, to pay people to predict the future, it's the energy sector.  Trust me when I say I'm pretty sure they're not just winging it.

OPEC wouldn't be flooding the market unless they were pretty sure there was an edge in it.  They think they know what will happen, and it might include global recession as multiple nations default on their debt, and the US energy boom is strangled.  They think there is advantage in this for them, which means they think prices will be higher over time if they shut out other producers now by lowering the price, which means they think Russia and Venezuela and the US won't be able to ramp up to full production again when prices begin to recover.  Or they think prices will be permanently low and they're okay with that, maybe for geopolitical reasons like monkeying with Iran or suppressing civil unrest. 

I don't claim to be smart enough to know what all of those plans look like, but I'm smart enough to know that a plan exists.  This isn't random market fluctuations. 

MayDay

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #42 on: December 18, 2014, 04:49:27 PM »
I had stayed out of this thread because my job isn't affected, but I'm glad I clicked. I hadn't thought much about gas as I haven't filled up lately, but this is all interesting.

notmyhand

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #43 on: December 18, 2014, 07:57:28 PM »
I'm a consultant for oil/gas development for E&P companies.  My main client has already reduced their contractors by a third.  I'm forecasting I will be heavily impacted if these prices keep up for another 30-100 days.  My one year emergency fund is the only thing keeping me sleeping right about now.

lostamonkey

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #44 on: December 18, 2014, 08:52:31 PM »
This came up casually during lunch with my boss (and the owner of the company) and some coworkers. He said "there are a ton of trickle-down effects of low oil prices but what does up must go down, it'll be back up eventually." I hope he is right. I have already heard of a few people losing their jobs in Fort Mac because of the lower oil prices, and think it will continue. WTI hit $54 today which would have been unthinkable in the summer. It sucks that the oil boom is over but atleast I am saving some money at the pump.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 08:54:28 PM by lostamonkey »

Kmp2

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #45 on: December 19, 2014, 10:07:35 AM »
Our client slashed their capital budget for next year and my project was cancelled yesterday, and they finished drilling the first piles just las week! As Most of the capital cost on our project was spent last year, it was surprising! The shoe is starting to drop.

It's a boom bust sector I work for, mostly designing capital projects for oil companies. But personally i love the ebb and flow, the lows are a great change of pace, and time for some traveling, studying, reading or just hanging out as a stay at home parent. Just gotta know they are coming, they won't last forever, and live well below you boom means! Being mustachian has taken all the stress out of a bust.

Albert

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #46 on: December 19, 2014, 10:21:13 AM »
Unless you are in oil industry, and most of us here aren't, low oil prices have mostly positive effect. In any case oil prices already were at this level and lower not that many years ago and sky didn't fall. Of course eventually they will go up again, only no one knows for sure how long this "eventually" is going to last.

By the way with my previous post I just wanted to remind everyone that history has no deterministic path. Doesn't matter how smart you are, how many analysts you have and how many supercomputers run for you day and night. You still won't be able to anticipate what the results of doing XYZ will be 100% of a time (or close). And that's assuming you have all the information which we here on this board do not have.

Flash445

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Re: Oil prices effecting anyone else's job security?
« Reply #47 on: December 19, 2014, 05:28:51 PM »
I work upstream for a large company and I'm pretty sure the drop in prices will not affect my job security. Work may slow down next year with all the smaller companies that hire us for services slowing down. If anything the stock price for the company I work for may drop which is good because as an employee one could take advantage of the ESPP the company offers. I plan on investing a few percent next quarter to take advantage of it.