Not counting on Medicare to be around?

[SachaFiscal]

I've seen some posts on this forum and the regular site about people not counting on Social Security for their retirement.  If they get it, it will just be bonus money. So their stash will be appropriately higher. Is anyone also not counting on Medicare to be available when they turn 65?  Is anyone preparing for the event that they will have to pay for part or all of their health insurance after that point?  How are you estimating that?

The recent news about Medicare and Social Security becoming insolvent in the future got me thinking about this.  I've read some articles on both sides (some say that it will be insolvent by 2026 but others say that is not really true).

[CheapScholar]

I’m 38.  I actually think it’s more likely we will have Medicare for all than Medicare gets shut down by the time I’m 65.  Obviously, you need quite a swing of the political pendulum to get there.  You’d need the Democratic Party to truly adopt the policy (which, I think they are going that direction), and then have them win the WH, House, and Senate.  But, of course, it would be hard to do without 60 votes in the Senate.  Unless they have a majority and change the rules, etc.  But, if they got ACA done 10 years ago, I think they can get Medicare for all someday.

Not saying I necessarily WANT it to happen.  I generally do, but I have reservations.

I don’t think SS or Medicare will ever be killed.  Americans don’t want to watch old people die in the streets.  Americans also don’t want to financially support their elderly parents, that’s for the taxpayers.  I think worst case scenario they start seriously reducing the benefit payouts for SS (which would just incent recipients to move to LCOL areas even more) and/or use means testing for both SS and Medicare.

[FIREstache]

Is anyone also not counting on Medicare to be available when they turn 65?  Is anyone preparing for the event that they will have to pay for part or all of their health insurance after that point?

I'm definitely preparing to pay.  Beyond limited hospital coverage,  you already have to pay for Medicare when you turn 65.  I have family who have mentioned paying around $400 per month for one person and still having to pay for some services out of their pocket.

It's 11 years off for me, so I just loosely plan on it costing me about $400/mo. in today's dollars.

[mathlete]

Old people vote, and so they'll be taken care of. The only thing I'm concerned about is that since I'm young (30), the old people of today may vote to fix Medicare and SS by locking in today's benefits for themselves by pushing back or cutting my benefits.

But then me and my fellow old people of the future will just vote to undo that probably.

As a general rule, I don't worry about public policy as it relates to me very much. I'm rich. If anybody is going to be "okay", it's me. My interest in public policy usually relates to people living at the margins.

[DadJokes]

I find it far more likely that Medicare will be expanded than reduced, just from reading the political climate. I include it in my plans, but I also have a contingency plan where I can simply move to another country.

Social Security is not in my plan, though I expect to receive it, albeit a smaller amount than people today receive.

[Cassie]

I don’t think either program is going away as too many people depend on it.

[Cranky]

I don’t count on anything being around, including myself, but I think I’m more worried about environmental issues than Medicare (which I’m actually in the process of signing up for.)

[effigy98]

I already funded my plan B if medicare is gone. You can get 25 pack for $15 at cabelas.

[SachaFiscal]

I hope Medicare is still around in a couple decades when we need it.  I guess we can't predict the future.  Who knows what the healthcare situation in the US will be by then.  I'm not counting on Social Security but I'm pretty sure we're going to get something.  I was planning on Medicare and I think I'll just keep planning on it being around because there's no way to predict how much money we would need if it's not around.  I have no idea what healthcare will cost then. 

I just have to realize that there's only so much I can prepare for.  Nothing is completely certain, I just have to evaluate what data I have now and make the best choices I can. 

[ministashy]

I'm counting on Medicare because I don't have a choice.  I'm not a high earner--there's no way I could expect to ever retire if I had to pay out for private medical insurance or worse, long term care, through my twilight years.  Much less even consider early retirement.

The politicians will never get rid of Medicare--there would be fire and rioting in the streets if they did.  Certain politicians (Republicans) might try to drive the costs higher and make it more inaccessible, but I hope even they know they would be jeopardizing their own political careers by doing so. 

[YttriumNitrate]

Back in the 90s I distinctly remember thinking that Social Security and Medicare were going to implode soon due to being insolvent. Fast forward 25 years, and they still look insolvent, but are still going strong. My guess is that in another 25 they will also look like they are on the verge of collapse while still going strong.

[partdopy]

I kind of assume that we will have some form of a tax payer funded health care system.

I've been in the military before and seen the beauty of a government run VA system, and as such I max my HSA so that I'll hopefully have the money to pay out of pocket for my own care outside of the one the government 'runs'.

[Enigma]

The next revolution, in my opinion, will be a healthcare revolution.  I do not believe one would need Medicare.  Computers are showing more promise at diagnosing diseases and problems.  I foresee a person walking up to a machine, placing their hand on the machine, and immediately being diagnosed.

Cures for countless diseases are also around the corner.
- Israel stated that they should have a ‘complete cure’ for cancer within a year.
- Advancements in both PrEP (HIV preventative) and post-treatment of HIV (HIV undetectable) the cure is also right around the corner.

Also there are promising articles on the cure for the common cold.  I think advancements viral HIV has scientist reevaluating the idea that there isn’t a cure to be found.

[YttriumNitrate]

Cures for countless diseases are also around the corner.
- Israel stated that they should have a ‘complete cure’ for cancer within a year.
- Advancements in both PrEP (HIV preventative) and post-treatment of HIV (HIV undetectable) the cure is also right around the corner.

Perhaps, but in my experience startup biotech CEOs are the medicine hucksters of our day so expect 95%+ of everything they say to be complete and utter crap. When I worked at a startup biotech, there was a staggering gap between what was being sold to investors and the state of the actual science.

[uwp]

It, or something like it will be around.

When people talk about SS going bankrupt in the future they are referring to the Trust Fund (even if they don't realize it).  SS brings in enough money to continue paying 70% of current benefits, so it would never be completely empty.

[FIREstache]

Regarding SS, supposedly, it can still pay 79% just from payroll taxes, but there are ways to prevent benefits from being cut.  There was a nice thread on this forum that I was reading a few days back that discussed Social Security's future.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/social-security-will-not-be-bankrupt/

Medicare will probably get more expensive, faster than inflation, due to healthcare costs rising so quickly.  I think I'll jump my estimate up to at least $500/mo out of pocket for the different parts and a supplemental for that future date but in today's dollars.  I had stated $400/mo earlier.

[Just Joe]

Anything is possible. The social and political changes we have witnessed over the past ten years have been interesting. Never expected some of the outspoken opinions I've listened to. The country is changing - not necessarily for the better. I think the people at the top on the right would gladly kill off social security, medicare and ACA given the chance and some of their supporters repeatedly vote against their own interests.