Author Topic: Mega Millions  (Read 17928 times)

By the River

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #50 on: October 18, 2018, 08:48:02 AM »
I only purchase a ticket or tickets within our company pool. We have one person who sends around an email and collects for the lottery once it gets above 400-500M so we don't play that often. I participate as a longshot insurance policy. We are a small-medium size company with a larger percentage of employees that play and if the very VERY small chance that we win the company would be forced to close after "X" number of employees quit.

I understand the odds but still find it fun to think about the "what if" scenarios if we were to win as our lifestyle would definitely change in some respects.

My office has 38 people that put up $1 each week for tickets regardless of size of jackpot.  I consider my $52 yearly as an insurance policy to not be here basically by myself.  All small "winnings" are saved for weekend drawings when the pot is larger.   We did win $50K (split 38 ways) a couple of years ago which was distributed out to everyone. 

ketchup

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #51 on: October 18, 2018, 09:01:15 AM »
I think I'd take the 10 million in after tax dollars and give the rest away.  I don't want the responsibility of managing that much money.  I know where the rest would be best spent.
This would be basically my strategy.   My life would not be "better" with $300M to my name vs $10M.

fattest_foot

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #52 on: October 18, 2018, 09:23:25 AM »
I have no idea what I'd do with that amount of money.

Maybe find some deserving Mustachians to accelerate (instantly) their journey to FIRE?

I get nervous that most of the people you give money away to wouldn't handle it very well, similar to the "lottery ruined my life" type people. Gifting someone a lottery win is pretty much the same as winning it. But with a Mustachian, there's a pretty good chance they'll make the most of it. It's like a near-guaranteed way to know that the money won't be damning the person to an ill fate. The only down side is that most Mustachians probably don't particularly need it.

undercover

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #53 on: October 18, 2018, 10:23:29 AM »
I have no idea what I'd do with that amount of money.

Maybe find some deserving Mustachians to accelerate (instantly) their journey to FIRE?

I get nervous that most of the people you give money away to wouldn't handle it very well, similar to the "lottery ruined my life" type people. Gifting someone a lottery win is pretty much the same as winning it. But with a Mustachian, there's a pretty good chance they'll make the most of it. It's like a near-guaranteed way to know that the money won't be damning the person to an ill fate. The only down side is that most Mustachians probably don't particularly need it.

That's why you never give money to anyone. You talk to them about their problems and what they're doing to get over those problems and then you perhaps help them accelerate those processes.

People are obviously way better off and happier in the long run if they can fix their own problems and keep from having to ask anyone for help. But it's harder for some than others which is why helping them get on track is most useful instead of a wad of cash.

protostache

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #54 on: October 18, 2018, 11:42:24 AM »
I bought some numbers for the next Megamillions and Powerball pulls. My plan for the winnings: donate the full legal amount to every Democrat in every general election from now until eternity.

hernandz

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2018, 12:06:00 PM »
My vice is sugar, and I'm having little luck with taming my addiction.  Most lottery outlets also have candy for sale, so I avoid these trigger locations.  I am not immune to succumbing to the urge to buy a ticket, but it's not a great substitute for my vice of choice. 

As I've gotten closer to FIRE, my lotto fantasies have moved away from real estate and consumer goods towards charity efforts, both conventional and unconventional.  Could I fund a year of free Metrocards to NY residents, or some subsection (such as college students)? Establish a bike-share in my suburb that could really work for our day-laborer population? Pay off student loans for new librarians similar to other public-service loan forgiveness programs?  Fund the maintenance costs (not the initial purchase) of some worthy existing program such as a particular park or school program?  Scholarships for conference travel, so that more people can go learn stuff?  IF I SQUINT, maybe I can justify that as a mustachian reason to buy the next ticket.

scissorbill

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #56 on: October 18, 2018, 12:12:20 PM »
I found a Powerball ticket on my way out of the grocery store yesterday.  No one was around.  There were five plays on it, the purchaser lost $10 on it.  I wrote my name on the back and checked the numbers today.  I was relieved when it didn't win because I wouldn't feel right about claiming that money but I also wouldn't be able to not claim it!

Davids

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2018, 12:23:39 PM »
At the end of the day with a jackpot this size I am spending $2 to dream and you know what the cost is worth it.

radram

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #58 on: October 19, 2018, 07:29:37 AM »
I bought some numbers for the next Megamillions and Powerball pulls. My plan for the winnings: donate the full legal amount to every Democrat in every general election from now until eternity.

Do you realize the "full legal amount" is every cent you have, plus every cent you could possibly convince some loan entity to loan you?  It is called a Super PAC, and it could take all your money, even if you are not a lottery winner.

You could literally spend billions just to get 1 single person elected to office if you wanted to. Donating the full legal amount would not even get you past the next primary, let alone take you to eternity.

I love the world of dreaming. If you won $500 million, after taxes, which generated $30 million or so annually in earnings, how much would you actually dedicate to political campaigns? $10 million? $20 million? Would you form a Super PAC? How much of the money would you put into it? Any fun naming ideas?

tooqk4u22

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #59 on: October 19, 2018, 08:36:24 AM »
I bought some numbers for the next Megamillions and Powerball pulls. My plan for the winnings: donate the full legal amount to every Democrat in every general election from now until eternity.

I couldn't think of a more stupid way to use the money.....but I could think of an equally stupid way to use the money - to do the same on the republican side...haha.  politicians - no bueno. 

MsPeacock

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #60 on: October 19, 2018, 08:50:48 AM »
I buy a ticket when the jackpot gets huge - like Mega Millions is now. I don't really track it, so I am only aware when other people start mentioning it.

I get some entertainment thinking over what I'd do - like, what would I do FIRST? Who would I tell? Who would I not tell? How would I find a good lawyer? What charity would I fund, and how. I work for a non-profit for veteran's mental health - so most likely I'd do something in that area. The longer-term thinking has more to do w/ who would I give money to (e.g. my young relatives so that their college is paid for), what trips would I take, what fancy triathlon bike would I buy, etc.

I guess with something like 800 million that the idea of being "frugal" changes quite a bit. Maybe it then is frugal to fly business rather than chartering a jet? I have no idea....  I'm not a super-consumer-y person - I have no interest in fancy handbags or jewelry - so I don't see that changing. But I can see deciding not to work, or not to work full time, or shifting my energy to a different sort of work.

HamsterStache

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #61 on: October 19, 2018, 09:34:56 AM »
I bought some numbers for the next Megamillions and Powerball pulls. My plan for the winnings: donate the full legal amount to every Democrat in every general election from now until eternity.

I couldn't think of a more stupid way to use the money.....but I could think of an equally stupid way to use the money - to do the same on the republican side...haha.  politicians - no bueno.
+1

mm1970

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #62 on: October 19, 2018, 10:25:52 AM »
I just paid another $5 of insurance.

(aka, insurance that I'm not the ONLY person coming to work on Monday!)

Hedge_87

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #63 on: October 19, 2018, 11:11:51 AM »
I just paid another $5 of insurance.

(aka, insurance that I'm not the ONLY person coming to work on Monday!)

I used to work with some guys who would have a pool for tickets. I always put in because it would really suck to not and have them win it

DS

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #64 on: October 19, 2018, 11:21:34 AM »
I just paid another $5 of insurance.

(aka, insurance that I'm not the ONLY person coming to work on Monday!)

I used to work with some guys who would have a pool for tickets. I always put in because it would really suck to not and have them win it

This is how people at work were selling it.. I just think to myself there are so many people who win all the time.. Does it matter if I know them? Not really. I don't go joining strangers' pools or caring if strangers quit work. Just my thoughts.

dodojojo

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #65 on: October 19, 2018, 11:26:10 AM »
I just checked the "How to Win" section of the MM site.  Getting 4 numbers right "only" results in $500.  Wish there was a lottery that lowered the odds and gave out $2M each to 500 people  rather than a billion for 1 or 2 winners.  Or even zero winners.

partdopy

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #66 on: October 19, 2018, 12:14:46 PM »
Usually never waste my money on these things.  I did, however, notice the billboard listing the jackpot at $970 million today.

I know I won't win, but whenever it gets crazy high I always buy a ticket.  I figure a few bucks for a shot at a billion is alright, and I don't think I'll miss the few dollars too much.

Vibrissae

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #67 on: October 19, 2018, 12:22:01 PM »
I'm in an office pool that mostly just does our state lottery but throws money at MegaMillions as well when it gets really high. I figure I can spare a couple of bucks a week on the very, very, very, very off chance that we win something.

I find it kind of sad, though, that some of the people involved seem to be pinning desperate hopes on winning. I mean, a lot of money would be nice, but I'm not really disappointed when we don't win. Tbh I don't even really fantasize about what I'd do if I won, except that I'd like to do some traveling, donate money to my temple, and set myself up for excellent end-of-life care. MegaMillions is probably overkill.

oldmannickels

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #68 on: October 19, 2018, 12:31:53 PM »
Whenever I want to buy a ticket and the pot is as big as this is, I think about the 1,000,000,000+ that were wasted by people in creating that pot of money and decide I want nothing to do with that.

partgypsy

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #69 on: October 19, 2018, 12:34:02 PM »
I just checked the "How to Win" section of the MM site.  Getting 4 numbers right "only" results in $500.  Wish there was a lottery that lowered the odds and gave out $2M each to 500 people  rather than a billion for 1 or 2 winners.  Or even zero winners.

Yeah. I would actually prefer to participate in something like that. Because that is actually a very meaningful amount to me while these larger numbers are not. But that would mean researching lottery games, so, nah.

I was thinking if I won a bunch of money I'd try to help out the environment. But realized I didn't have to wait until I won to do that, so just gave $50 to Conservation International. So I'm good either way.

mak1277

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #70 on: October 19, 2018, 02:04:31 PM »
I just paid another $5 of insurance.

(aka, insurance that I'm not the ONLY person coming to work on Monday!)

I used to work with some guys who would have a pool for tickets. I always put in because it would really suck to not and have them win it

This is how people at work were selling it.. I just think to myself there are so many people who win all the time.. Does it matter if I know them? Not really. I don't go joining strangers' pools or caring if strangers quit work. Just my thoughts.

Somebody from some other office quitting wouldn't impact me at all.  48 people from my floor quitting would definitely have a negative effect.

Lanthiriel

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #71 on: October 19, 2018, 02:12:10 PM »
It's my birthday tomorrow. I bought 5 tickets with the $10 my adorable grandma still sends me for my birthday even though I'm 31 and make more money than her and my grandpa ever did. This morning my husband drew the floor plan of the house he would build in the steam from the bathroom shower. That was entertaining enough for my $10.

By the River

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #72 on: October 19, 2018, 03:15:32 PM »
In addition to tickets with my larger group of 38 coworkers, my immediate work group of 5 bought tickets as well.  I should just go over to the class of 2018 thread and add my name for October 22, 2018.  Can't miss since my odds are 24 in 302,575,350 now.

Villanelle

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #73 on: October 19, 2018, 11:18:16 PM »
I just realized all my Stateside family with whom I usually go in on the massive jackpots is traveling outside the country, so I guess I am out of luck. 

GrumpyPenguin

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #74 on: October 20, 2018, 07:19:38 AM »
It's up to $1.6 billion, or about $905 million lump sum now.  Sheesh.

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #75 on: October 20, 2018, 08:01:48 AM »
I threw into the office pool. Its an ideal state -- lower payout, substantially higher odds of winning (about 20x for my office).

The ticket vs vti is a invalid comparison without doing the math. You buy vti because of the expected return. You have to consider the ticket's expected return as well. Sure, its a long shot, but at $2 for a 1 in 300 mil chance to win, if the pot is high enough (600 mil starts to be that ballpark, ignoring taxes for a moment because that's complicated), your expected return is more than you spend.

But the odds are low enough you shouldn't go all-in!

Apple_Tango

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #76 on: October 20, 2018, 08:28:54 AM »
I throw in a few bucks when it gets crazy like this. I also play my state’s New Years millionaire raffle because someone is gurranteed to win...why can’t it be me? That’s $20. I’ll probaly spend $20 on this mega millions madness. I probably spend $20 on random scratch off tickets during the year. So $60 a year on the lottery.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 07:03:37 PM by Apple_Tango »

radram

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #77 on: October 20, 2018, 09:18:41 AM »
I threw into the office pool. Its an ideal state -- lower payout, substantially higher odds of winning (about 20x for my office).

Could you please explain what you mean by this?

maizefolk

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #78 on: October 20, 2018, 09:25:30 AM »
Oh, someone did the math. This is with powerball not megamillions, but accounts for taxes, the odds of sharing the jackpot increasing as higher headline numbers drive more people purchase tickets. The absolute values are going to be different but the shape of the curve may well be the same.



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/9pu4z7/mega_millions_is_over_1b_howeveroc/e849l01/

Channel-Z

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #79 on: October 20, 2018, 08:41:26 PM »
$2 here and there won't break my budget, so I play periodically.

Not that I expect to have such a problem, but I'm fortunate to live in a state (Kansas) that allows lottery winners to remain anonymous.

ND

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #80 on: October 20, 2018, 09:15:20 PM »
Whoever wins that money will likely become a "public figure," like with a Wikipedia article about them and everything.
I don't want random people on the internet knowing me as "that dude who has boat loads of cash to throw around."  I would be afraid to voluntarily put myself in such a situation, so for that reason alone, I probably won't bother entering.

I'm a weenie, and I like my wealth to be stealth.  :P

maizefolk

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #81 on: October 20, 2018, 09:38:56 PM »
Whoever wins that money will likely become a "public figure," like with a Wikipedia article about them and everything.

It's interesting to look at the list of past winners. It seems like a fair number of folks share your worry and create a shell company between finding out they won and claiming the prize to hide their identity.

May 4, 2018 - $142 million won by the ABC XYZ Trust with a ticket purchased in Moraine, Ohio
January 5, 2018 - $451 million won by Secret 007, LLC, of Port Richey, Fla.
November 18, 2016 - $83 million won by ADirectConnection LLC of Georgia
October 11, 2016 - $49 million won by the It Will Buy Me a Boat Revocable Trust of Rockwall, Texas

(To be fair a lot of other people do have their names on the public record.)

ender

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #82 on: October 20, 2018, 10:03:53 PM »
I am morally opposed to the lottery to begin with so no, I don't play it.


lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #83 on: October 20, 2018, 10:11:13 PM »
Oh, someone did the math. This is with powerball not megamillions, but accounts for taxes, the odds of sharing the jackpot increasing as higher headline numbers drive more people purchase tickets. The absolute values are going to be different but the shape of the curve may well be the same.


Update here adjusting expected new ticket sales down at higher pot values based on new data. Arm-waving estimate that positibe EV could occur around $3.1B (so you're saying there's a chance!)
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 10:16:06 PM by lost_in_the_endless_aisle »

PizzaSteve

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #84 on: October 21, 2018, 11:37:02 AM »
Any winners?....nope?  alrighty then....

maizefolk

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #85 on: October 21, 2018, 11:42:34 AM »
Oh, someone did the math. This is with powerball not megamillions, but accounts for taxes, the odds of sharing the jackpot increasing as higher headline numbers drive more people purchase tickets. The absolute values are going to be different but the shape of the curve may well be the same.
Update here adjusting expected new ticket sales down at higher pot values based on new data. Arm-waving estimate that positibe EV could occur around $3.1B (so you're saying there's a chance!)

Nice find!

fattest_foot

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #86 on: October 22, 2018, 09:15:39 AM »
Any winners?....nope?  alrighty then....

Really drives home how bad the odds are when the jackpot can climb $700 million between drawings, and still not have a winner.

mak1277

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #87 on: October 22, 2018, 09:32:36 AM »
Any winners?....nope?  alrighty then....

Really drives home how bad the odds are when the jackpot can climb $700 million between drawings, and still not have a winner.

I read where 57% of the possible number combinations were on peoples' tickets for Friday's drawing, so it was really a coin flip on whether someone won.  The estimate for the next drawing was 75% of combos, so it's more likely than not that Tuesday will have a winner.

Glenstache

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #88 on: October 22, 2018, 10:24:52 AM »
Well, my 4% SWR would certainly go a lot further if I won :)

In reality, it would just bring my FI date a lot closer and allow me to make some meaningful charitable contributions.

I play a handful of times a year as part of an office pool. It is a fun shared experience. I see people who are hard on their luck scratching off state gaming tickets at convenience stores occasionally. It makes me sad, and also appreciate the fortune I've had in my own life by pure circumstance. That has been worth far more than a lump sum lottery winning over the long haul.

Boofinator

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #89 on: October 22, 2018, 10:30:01 AM »
I spent part of today calculating how high the jackpot would need to be to be positive EV after accounting for taxes and the possibility of a split pot ($1.5 billion?).

I've tried to do this too a couple of times. The problem is that the total number of tickets purchased goes up as the size of the jackpot increases. But I don't know how to model how rapid that increase is (and it's probably not linear either).

Depending on the model you use, the expected value might never actually go positive.

Agreed, expected value will never go positive with the lottery if you are using appropriate units (discounting of course any emotional joy one may perceive in "playing"). And total dollars is completely the wrong units, because when you start reaching stratospheric levels of wealth the value of a dollar is highly nonlinear. "Happiness" is probably the best utility function, but that is extremely difficult to quantify, so instead let's use "time". Consider someone (a Mustachian, of course) who just plays the lottery when it gets big enough to yield a positive expected value, paying $5 once per year. Compounding that money at 7% over a 20-year career results in being able to retire a full day earlier than otherwise possible. Now, winning the lottery would result in immediate retirement, but the odds of doing so are about 1:300,000,000. If one works 250 days per year, you could potentially receive 5,000 days earlier retirement if winning on the first try. If you sum the total number of days one might win times the odds of winning, it works out to an expected value of 5 seconds. Even if those days would be twice as happy, you're looking at 10 seconds. Not a good deal.

If one considers the marginal utility of wealth, there are very few lotteries that come out with a positive expected value. (Though there's this one: https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/lotto-winners/)

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #90 on: October 22, 2018, 11:00:30 AM »
Based on the size of my town and median wage I could probably give every household 25x their annual salary and do one huge FIRE experiment...

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #91 on: October 22, 2018, 11:11:56 AM »
Based on the size of my town and median wage I could probably give every household 25x their annual salary and do one huge FIRE experiment...

Ha! That would be amazing. Be sure to save some money aside to either A) open a store that sells vices and luxury items, or B) offer free education on FIRE. Or better yet, C) both. Some will get it, and you can recoup some of your money from those that don't.

dude

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #92 on: October 22, 2018, 11:28:21 AM »
It's up to $1.6 billion, or about $905 million lump sum now.  Sheesh.

UNREAL.

JanetJackson

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #93 on: October 22, 2018, 11:34:40 AM »
I have never purchased a lottery ticket and never will.  My grandmother has gifted them to me once or twice as a kid for holidays- until I asked her not to.
I'm one of those people who believes that the lottery preys on the inherent hopefulness of poor people and perpetuates harmful spending cycles... but that's a whole OTHER discussion that I don't have the energy to argue here.

I have bought raffle tickets at local non profit events and things like that.

If I was given a large amount of money- if I'd won the lottery on one of those two lottery tickets when I was a kid...LOL...
 I'd automate the things I don't value in life (laundry), start an animal rescue, and donate to organizations who have missions I believe in.  I would pay off debt for my family and friends (about 6 people).
I'd buy a small house with a nice guest house to air bnb and I'd live off of that income while growing some vegetables and not being stressed about the cost if I made a mistake and lost a harvest. 
I'd build a little fire pit and cook potatoes over the fire. 
I'd get an electric vehicle and a decent bike and learn to bike long/er distances to do what I needed to in town (in my fantasy I live just outside of town, maybe like 10 miles on a little plot of land). 
I'd go to the gym 5x/wk and I'd pay for some upgrades at my small locally owned gym, maybe pay the owner a salary, as I don't believe he takes one now and he coaches 60/62 classes a week. 

I'd meet friends for coffee and not stress about buying them a cup here and there... and go visit my friends who live in different states. 

I'd take my dog to the beach and the park, I'd read at sunset with my dog instead of putting my stupid work clothes out and packing my stupid work lunch. 
I'd learn to bake sourdough bread.
I'd live a quiet life and I'd reconnect with the things I love.   

sisto

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #94 on: October 22, 2018, 11:35:28 AM »
We haven't played in many many years, but my FIL wanted me to go buy him some since it was so high so I did and went ahead and got $10 worth for us too. I don't fantasize about winning because the odds are so bad, but I would definitely quit my job and do tons of traveling if I won.

frugalnacho

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #95 on: October 22, 2018, 12:13:21 PM »
I buy a mega millions or a power ball ticket only when the jack pot gets insanely large like it is now and everyone talks about it.  Maybe once a year or so?  I can't really remember the last time, but I'll probably buy a couple for this 1.6B jackpot.  And no I would not remain mustachian with a billion dollars.  My life would be absolute insanity with out of control hedonism.  Every whim, every desire, there would be nothing standing in my way.  Drugs, women, jet skis, everything.   It would be a wild ride.

apkanne

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #96 on: October 22, 2018, 12:45:09 PM »
I get one if I am at the gas station and have cash to pay for something. My dad bought 2 a week when i was a kid, and always said to me "you can't win if you don't play". It was always fun to look up if our numbers hit. He actually called me last night and asked if I got mine, i didn't know this jackpot was so big, its fun to dream so i will be making a special stop to throw my $2 in.

Glenstache

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #97 on: October 22, 2018, 12:49:18 PM »
I think the important theme in this thread is that mustachians view things like the lottery as a fun distraction with a small expense relative to our respective incomes. We explicitly do not think that we will win, or that it is a reasonable "investment" by any stretch.

I do share the sentiment that much of the state and private gambling industry has a predatory nature, especially on those who are desperate or prone to gambling addiction (that dopamine hit is a powerful thing). Say something if you see someone you care about treating it irresponsibly.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #98 on: October 22, 2018, 12:50:08 PM »
I buy a mega millions or a power ball ticket only when the jack pot gets insanely large like it is now and everyone talks about it.  Maybe once a year or so?  I can't really remember the last time, but I'll probably buy a couple for this 1.6B jackpot.  And no I would not remain mustachian with a billion dollars.  My life would be absolute insanity with out of control hedonism.  Every whim, every desire, there would be nothing standing in my way.  Drugs, women, jet skis, everything.   It would be a wild ride.


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Re: Mega Millions
« Reply #99 on: October 22, 2018, 12:55:09 PM »
I wouldn't even know how to buy a lotto ticket, but if I somehow found a ticket worth half a billion, I'd set up an LLC to claim the winnings anonymously, pay off the house, retire, set up a sweet woodshop, and travel a bit more. I would also give away absolute gobs of money to environmental and humanitarian causes. There are just very few things I want out of life that I don't already have (besides my time, and I'm working on that.)