Lean, Normal, Fat Monthly expenses; Family & Single

[whywork]

I think there is confusion around what are the levels of FIRE numbers required; It is much easier to compute what we need per month and then extend it to a FIRE number. I have tried to come up with the monthly expenses for various scenarios. Let me know what you think, I can modify based on feedback. I have assumed rent for ease of use but home expenses will probably come to same considering ROI on home value as well

	Family-Lean	Family-Normal	Family-Fat	Single-Lean	Single-Normal	Single-Fat
Rent (Or property taxes, ins, maintenance)	700	1300	2500	600	900	1500
Grocery / Household	350	450	500	150	200	300
Eating Out	30	200	750	30	150	350
Entertainment	30	200	750	30	150	350
Utilities + cell + internet)	200	250	250	200	200	200
Car	120	150	200	120	150	200
Healthcare	200	200	750	200	200	500
Vacation		200	1000		200	700
Misc. (One time expenses)	150	150	200	150	200	200
Kids Classes / School	50	150	400
Total	1830	3250	7300	1480	2350	4300
FIRE Number / NW Required	550K	~1M	2.2M	~450K	700K	1.3M

[DreamFIRE]

I'm not sure if I've seen much confusion about how the 4% rule works except people forget that they need to figure in income taxes that are paid during FIRE because they are part of your spending that will need to be paid from the stash.  It looks like you left that out as well.  And net worth should NOT be used for the calculation but rather your stash/investments that you will draw down on, particularly if you own a home.  I see you made that mistake also.  An exception would be if you are planning to sell a very expensive home and downgrade/relocate into a much lower cost home for FIRE, so the difference would then become available stash to use with the 4% rule.

These expenses can vary all over the space, so trying to fit people into these categories and specific amounts doesn't work out well.  For now, I would be in the lean column of your single chart for overall spending, yet utilities for houses where I live are high, so I'm averaging close to $275/mo despite a tolerance for heat, a lower speed internet plan, nearly free cell service, and no cable,... so I exceed your "fat" budget there, even of the fat "family"!

If you're not getting subsidies, your healthcare can be very expensive also, especially in the later years prior to Medicare at over $1000/mo, and even with Medicare can be $400+ per month for adequate coverage for one person, double for a couple.

Adjusted for inflation, homes in my area have actually lost value since I bought mine 16 years ago.  But at $500/mo for tax/ins/maint, your chart isn't far off from that.  If someone has a mortgage on an expensive house, that would really drive up the monthly budget.

Edit:  I'm still working now, but your single "fat" column matches up more closely with my $50K/yr FIRE spending plan, although the individual items don't change as with your chart, since my $500/mo housing, for example, would not change.  It's the entertainment and travel that would really jump up, eating out more as part of that as well.  Of course, there's always the uncertainty around healthcare going forward between healthcare coverage and actual personal health.

[DreamFIRE]

I'm around $110 on a car just for registration, insurance, and gas with low miles driven.   Add in yearly maintenance over the long term, and I'm above that.  If I factor in that I'll need a new car someday, the average monthly cost jumps up a lot more.  As long as my older car runs, I can stay close to the figures in the chart.

[DreamFIRE]

I figure once I FIRE, I'll spend a lot more on gas, but at that point, much more of my driving could be considered as part of the vacation and entertainment budget since it won't be strictly for the usual necessary driving that I do mostly now.  I don't think I'll be living quite so lean then, but I'm not really sure I'll end up averaging $4K/mo, either.

[MrThatsDifferent]

I'm not sure if I've seen much confusion about how the 4% rule works except people forget that they need to figure in income taxes that are paid during FIRE because they are part of your spending that will need to be paid from the stash.  It looks like you left that out as well.  And net worth should NOT be used for the calculation but rather your stash/investments that you will draw down on, particularly if you own a home.  I see you made that mistake also.  An exception would be if you are planning to sell a very expensive home and downgrade/relocate into a much lower cost home for FIRE, so the difference would then become available stash to use with the 4% rule.

These expenses can vary all over the space, so trying to fit people into these categories and specific amounts doesn't work out well.  For now, I would be in the lean column of your single chart for overall spending, yet utilities for houses where I live are high, so I'm averaging close to $275/mo despite a tolerance for heat, a lower speed internet plan, nearly free cell service, and no cable,... so I exceed your "fat" budget there, even of the fat "family"!

If you're not getting subsidies, your healthcare can be very expensive also, especially in the later years prior to Medicare at over $1000/mo, and even with Medicare can be $400+ per month for adequate coverage for one person, double for a couple.

Adjusted for inflation, homes in my area have actually lost value since I bought mine 16 years ago.  But at $500/mo for tax/ins/maint, your chart isn't far off from that.  If someone has a mortgage on an expensive house, that would really drive up the monthly budget.

Edit:  I'm still working now, but your single "fat" column matches up more closely with my $50K/yr FIRE spending plan, although the individual items don't change as with your chart, since my $500/mo housing, for example, would not change.  It's the entertainment and travel that would really jump up, eating out more as part of that as well.  Of course, there's always the uncertainty around healthcare going forward between healthcare coverage and actual personal health.

Regarding taxes: I thought the idea would be that your taxes should be minimal if you’ve set everything up well? Check out go curry cracker who pays almost nothing in taxes. Does MMM include taxes in his $25k a year family expense?

[jim555]

Between qualified dividends and LTCG taxes should be zero to minimal, also no SS taxes on unearned income.  Autos costs go way down due to no commuting.  Clothing drops, no need for work clothes.  Medical can be zero if you structure your income right. 

[Fomerly known as something]

Health care.  I think many assume to low here if someone actually needs to use their health insurance vs. pay for a health insurance plan.  I was listening to the retirement answer man who walk talking about the plan available to him in Idaho.  I had a $50,000 out of plan deductible and limited in network plan.  Why because the plan wanted to make sure that if someone got sick they didn't have to pay for subject matter experts from places like the Mayo or Cleveland Clinics.

I also think that utilities is likely low,  With water/gas electric I pay close to $100 a month in access fees.  I'm not saying it can't be done but FAT Fire does not mean having to nickle and dime my internet/phone bill.

Same with Miscellaneous/Vacation with FATFIRE.  While $10,000 a year or so is a decent chunk of change, that can easily be whipped out for several years if one decides to engage in a major home improvement project, buy a new car or whatever.

Also there is no line item for charity.  Does my desire to donate come out of my miscellaneous budget?     

[DreamFIRE]

Regarding taxes: I thought the idea would be that your taxes should be minimal if you’ve set everything up well? Check out go curry cracker who pays almost nothing in taxes. Does MMM include taxes in his $25k a year family expense?

Are you forgetting state taxes?  These differ from state to state.  Curry Cracker may live in a state with very different taxation or without a state income tax, could be married, or minimizing his spending to require less income.  I already know I could do those things.  But, everyone's situation is different.

Minimizing taxes and "no" taxes are not the same thing.  A single person can't shield as much federal income from taxes as easily as a couple or family, and remember, the chart includes "fat" singles with $50K/yr spending.  If you're relying more on pre-tax 401Ks etc., pension, and/or SS, you'll have more taxable income.  Many members will be in that situation, even if not initially.  And many states allow very little shielding of income from taxation with very small deductions while taxing long term gains/dividends as ordinary income, so you need to factor that in also in many states.  Then there's taxable pension and SS benefits that many people receive.  That's very different than the still-young MMM "family" spending only "half" that "fat 50K" amount of a single person.  I don't know if he includes taxes, but that is irrelevant what one individual (err family) might do due to his (their) particular circumstances and taxation.  The common advice on this forum is to include taxes as part of your FIRE spending because it's another expense to pay from your drawdown, even more likely if you're a on a fat budget that requires more income or if receiving taxable pension/SS.  I agree with that, and it shouldn't be ignored.

I've been setting up my planned drawdown to optimize for lower taxes for years as mentioned in previous posts on this forum but will still generate about $24/yr in income as a single person while projecting fat expenses up to $50K/yr.  So for the first 15 years of FIRE, I'll be paying paying about 1.6% of my drawdown in taxes - all state income tax, about $66/mo if they don't raise it again.  No federal tax - 0%.  In 15 years, I'll have even more taxable income with taxable SS/pension income, so then my total state and federal tax combined will be 4.6% of my drawdown and SS benefits combined.  More SS benefits are taxable every year because the thresholds that are used for triggering the taxable amounts are not indexed to inflation, so I am accounting for those changes 16 years in advance (planning FIRE in 1 year).  I could lower or eliminate all income taxes, at least for the first 15 years, but that would also mean moving to a different state (which I might for other reasons) or lowering my spending to a much lower amount, but that wouldn't make sense to put such a spending restriction on myself when my stash is already more than enough to fund a fat spending FIRE and cover the 1.6% to state income tax prior to reaching SS age and 4.6% total taxes after SS age.  I would rather spend a little more and enjoy retirement with more travel and entertainment than intentionally reduce spending just to cut taxes further leaving a huge amount of stash unspent.  Compared to the high taxes I'm paying now, 1.6% is trivial.

Many people are not setup for tax optimization as I am while still wanting to spend for "fat" FIRE, and along with pension income or even SS, they may have to pay much more in income tax than me, depending on the state also.

[DreamFIRE]

Between qualified dividends and LTCG taxes should be zero to minimal

Ahh, no, you forgot that many of us have state income taxes that tax these as ordinary income with very little deduction.  See my previous post where I break down why I will still have to pay 1.6% of my drawdown due to state income taxes.

also no SS taxes on unearned income.

I wasn't referring to SS/FICA taxes in FIRE.  I'm referring to income tax that needs to be paid from the stash/retirement income, not regular jobs.  Many people will have taxable pension or SS income as well.  However, despite no FICA tax, SS benefits are taxable at certain income levels and are becoming taxed more every year as explained in this post:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/what-age-to-take-social-secuirty/msg1928490/#msg1928490

Also see my previous post on this whole matter.

Autos costs go way down due to no commuting.

Not for me.  My work commute is 2 miles one way while I then sit in an office for 8 to 10 hours per day leaving the car parked.   I expect my auto costs to go up tremendously when I FIRE because I don't plan to be sitting around home or offices for 8 to 10 hours per day.  And that's not even factoring in the vacations I'll be taking with the car.  And when the car finally junks out, the costs will go up even more.  If someone was very old and/or didn't drive, that would be different.

Clothing drops, no need for work clothes.

My clothing budget is already minimal.  I'll still wear clothes when I'm not working, though.

Medical can be zero if you structure your income right.

Only way to do that in my state would be to throttle my income to about $16K/yr or less to get on Medicaid expansion (at least my state expanded it), which wouldn't be easy since I earn about that much in dividends and interest in my post-tax account, and I understand Medicaid uses monthly income to determine eligibility month to month in my state, and I would frequently surpass that on interest and dividend payouts even if I managed to keep the yearly amount within the limit.  Also, Medicaid would potentially cut my doctor/provider availability, and it would put my estate at the mercy of the Medicaid estate recovery program.  Putting my estate at the mercy of the state is a non-starter for me as is throttling my income to such a low level, and probably isn't possible in a practical sense for me due to dividends and interest along with the monthly eligibility requirement.  Even attempting to lower my MAGI to those low monthly levels would coincide with the need to reduce my spending allowance in FIRE and would leave me with a big pile of unused stash.  And I would definitely be concerned about available providers and having to change doctors.  I'm comfortable with ACA and maybe $300/mo on the budget for it in a typical year, which works for my planned spending levels and controlled income.  This way I can keep my "fat" FIRE, pay the low state income tax with no federal income tax until SS age, and have affordable decent healthcare coverage.

Reducing my income further by putting such spending restrictions on myself just to avoid a little tax and low healthcare premiums (along with the problems mentioned in regard to Medicaid monthly income eligibility, estate recovery, and physician availabiilty) doesn't work for me.

[jim555]

Medical can be zero if you structure your income right.

Only way to do that in my state would be to throttle my income to about $16K/yr or less to get on Medicaid expansion (at least my state expanded it), which wouldn't be easy since I earn about that much in dividends and interest in my post-tax account, and I understand Medicaid uses monthly income to determine eligibility month to month in my state, and I would frequently surpass that on interest and dividend payouts even if I managed to keep the yearly amount within the limit.  Also, Medicaid would potentially cut my doctor/provider availability, and it would put my estate at the mercy of the Medicaid estate recovery program.  Putting my estate at the mercy of the state is a non-starter for me as is throttling my income to such a low level, and probably isn't possible in a practical sense for me.  Doing so would reduce my spending allowance in FIRE and would leave me with a big pile of unused stash.  And I would definitely be concerned about available providers and having to change doctors.  I'm comfortable with ACA and maybe $300/mo on the budget for it in a typical year, which works for my planned spending levels and controlled income.  This way I can keep my "fat" FIRE, pay the low state income tax with no federal income tax until SS age, and have affordable decent healtcare coverage.

Reducing my income further by putting such spending restrictions on myself just to avoid a little tax and low healthcare premiums doesn't work for me.

I am on the low road income wise so state tax happens but it is not a lot.

NY has a plans up to 200% FPL that are $20 a month with very reasonable co-pays and deductibles.  One plan in the 138-150 FPL range is basically Medicaid like coverage for free but not Medicaid and no estate recovery.  The doctor network hasn't been a problem for me. 

[DreamFIRE]

I am on the low road income wise so state tax happens but it is not a lot.

I think the 1.6% tax to the state on my drawdown is reasonable with no fed tax for my projected spending level as a single person.  One thing positive about my state is that they don't tax SS benefits or traditional IRA/401k, although "some" keep mentioning that as a source for more tax revenue, so I hope they don't screw us over there.

NY has a plans up to 200% FPL that are $20 a month with very reasonable co-pays and deductibles.  One plan in the 138-150 FPL range is basically Medicaid like coverage for free but not Medicaid and no estate recovery.  The doctor network hasn't been a problem for me.

I saw your posts about that in the other thread where someone was asking about NY healthcare coverage.  I had not heard about it before, but it sounds nice.  No such luck here.

[Cranky]

  Autos costs go way down due to no commuting.  Clothing drops, no need for work clothes.  Medical can be zero if you structure your income right.

YMMV, literally. We've always been a one car family; I've always walked to work. Dh drives 8 miles to work. I kind of expect those expenses to go up when we're both retired, at least for a while. And we just wear regular clothes to work, so I don't see that changing either.

People need to remember that their vision and dental expenses are likely to increase as they get older, too.

[wenchsenior]

  Autos costs go way down due to no commuting.  Clothing drops, no need for work clothes.  Medical can be zero if you structure your income right.

YMMV, literally. We've always been a one car family; I've always walked to work. Dh drives 8 miles to work. I kind of expect those expenses to go up when we're both retired, at least for a while. And we just wear regular clothes to work, so I don't see that changing either.

People need to remember that their vision and dental expenses are likely to increase as they get older, too.

I expect our housing costs, medical, gas/auto, vacations/recreation, etc all to go UP in retirement.    Taxes, if we can structure our savings properly, will at the very least stay the same, but I wouldn't be shocked if they went up as well. 

[DreamFIRE]

People need to remember that their vision and dental expenses are likely to increase as they get older, too.

And they'll go up the first year you FIRE if you had decent coverage through your employer.  I have $70/mo tacked onto my FIRE budget for that vs. $15/mo while working.   And I might have to tweak that up over time.

[FIRE47]

I can appreciate the effort that was put in and it is good to have some kind of a yardstick for people to benchmark/sanity check against but I do wonder how much value standard numbers provide given different COL, family sizes, healthcare circumstances etc.

That being said even as a rule of thumb I see a few major areas for improvement:

The difference between Normal Family and Fat Family is far too large. I think that partially because your "lean" is more like "early retirement extreme lean" and your "normal" is more like extra lean and then you jump right to upper middle class luxury.

Likewise I'm not sure what adding $30 a month really does for car expenses that is different between lean and normal?

The vehicle expenses are all so low unless that is just monthly insurance and gas? For $120 a month not sure how you will keep a car on the road with insurance, gas, maintenance let alone depreciation. Maybe that is just a payment/savings for a very old car?

[jlcnuke]

There is an approximately 0% chance I'd call $1.3M "Fat-FIRE".

Healthcare is going to be more than $500/month if you're single, and making $5x,xxx/year if you ever have to use it, because that $6k/year plan is going to have a pretty nice deductible you'll have to get through on top of the premiums.

$200/month for a car will cover insurance, gas, and maintenance for a paid off car, but it isn't going to cover saving for the next one or buying another car in the future, much less a "Fat FIRE" car.

My electric bill + gas bill + internet will exceed your $200/month utility estimate, and I haven't yet paid for water/sewage/trash/cell phone at that point. Or TV services (whether cable or Hulu/Netfilx etc).

[DreamFIRE]

There is an approximately 0% chance I'd call $1.3M "Fat-FIRE".

Healthcare is going to be more than $500/month if you're single, and making $5x,xxx/year if you ever have to use it, because that $6k/year plan is going to have a pretty nice deductible you'll have to get through on top of the premiums.

$200/month for a car will cover insurance, gas, and maintenance for a paid off car, but it isn't going to cover saving for the next one or buying another car in the future, much less a "Fat FIRE" car.

My electric bill + gas bill + internet will exceed your $200/month utility estimate, and I haven't yet paid for water/sewage/trash/cell phone at that point. Or TV services (whether cable or Hulu/Netfilx etc).

I agree those fat fire car and utilities are too low, and I made similar comments.

But regarding healthcare under the $50K/yr "fat" FIRE, you stated "making" $50K/yr while the fat FIRE for singles budget refers to "spending" $50K/yr.   If you are tax optimized, you can have actual income less than half the $50K figure while still spending $50K/yr.  As I mentioned earlier, I plan to keep my MAGI income under $24K/yr so that I qualify for CSR87 to cut potential out of pocket costs in half.  Fortunately, I've been a light healthcare user to date, but I add in some budget buffer just in case and still budget well less than $500/mo.  The good news, is along with reasonable healthcare costs, I'll still get to enjoy "fat" FIRE at $50K/yr spending.  Since that's more than double my barebones, I may not even end up spending that much, but at least it's available if my best FIRE calls for it.

[Monkey Uncle]

Regarding the health care aspect of this discussion, don't forget that (1) ACA and Medicaid expansion may or may not be around forever, and (2) eventually you will have to go on Medicare, at which point your total costs will go up compared to a MAGI-optimized ACA/expanded Medicaid scenario.

[jim555]

Regarding the health care aspect of this discussion, don't forget that (1) ACA and Medicaid expansion may or may not be around forever, and (2) eventually you will have to go on Medicare, at which point your total costs will go up compared to a MAGI-optimized ACA/expanded Medicaid scenario.

Medicare has Medicare Savings Programs that will pay for co-pays and deductibles if your income is under the range of 100-135% FPL.  In my state there is a program to help pay for Part D expenses for low income households.  Social security runs a program called Extra Help that also helps with Part D expenses.

[Lan Mandragoran]

<-- Normal. Adjusting with our situation though ;P.

[Monkey Uncle]

Regarding the health care aspect of this discussion, don't forget that (1) ACA and Medicaid expansion may or may not be around forever, and (2) eventually you will have to go on Medicare, at which point your total costs will go up compared to a MAGI-optimized ACA/expanded Medicaid scenario.

Medicare has Medicare Savings Programs that will pay for co-pays and deductibles if your income is under the range of 100-135% FPL.  In my state there is a program to help pay for Part D expenses for low income households.  Social security runs a program called Extra Help that also helps with Part D expenses.

Thanks for pointing that out.  Obviously I'm clueless on that particular program, but just from briefly visiting the program's web page, it appears that it is means tested. https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/help-paying-costs/medicare-savings-program/medicare-savings-programs.html

The individual resource limits for a couple are under $12,000, so I don't see how a FIREee could qualify, unless you run out of money by the time you're 65.  But everything I know about that program I just read in the last 5 minutes, so if I am missing something, please educate me.

[intellectsucks]

Looks like a great starting point for people who are just getting into MMM and frugality to set certain benchmarks for themselves.  Obviously a lot of those numbers will look different depending on your individual situation (career, family size and style, family health, where you live etc), but I think the overall totals are close enough for government work.  Yes, some numbers will be higher depending on your situation, but in that case other numbers will likely be lower.
Great work!! 

[PoutineLover]

It's interesting to look at those numbers, although it would need a lot of tweaking for individual circumstances. For me, having lived alone for the past couple years and just moving in with a partner, my historical spending is basically single, normal spending without a car. But over the next decade or so, I expect to have kids, possibly a car, probably a house, so as of now it's pretty much impossible to estimate what my FIRE number is actually going to be, there are just way too many variables. Luckily, health insurance won't be as big of a deal since I live in Canada, but I still don't feel like I can plan with any degree of accuracy until some of the uncertainties of life are resolved.

[jim555]

Regarding the health care aspect of this discussion, don't forget that (1) ACA and Medicaid expansion may or may not be around forever, and (2) eventually you will have to go on Medicare, at which point your total costs will go up compared to a MAGI-optimized ACA/expanded Medicaid scenario.

Medicare has Medicare Savings Programs that will pay for co-pays and deductibles if your income is under the range of 100-135% FPL.  In my state there is a program to help pay for Part D expenses for low income households.  Social security runs a program called Extra Help that also helps with Part D expenses.

Thanks for pointing that out.  Obviously I'm clueless on that particular program, but just from briefly visiting the program's web page, it appears that it is means tested. https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/help-paying-costs/medicare-savings-program/medicare-savings-programs.html

The individual resource limits for a couple are under $12,000, so I don't see how a FIREee could qualify, unless you run out of money by the time you're 65.  But everything I know about that program I just read in the last 5 minutes, so if I am missing something, please educate me.

In NY there is no resource test.
http://www.wnylc.com/health/entry/99/

[Monkey Uncle]

Regarding the health care aspect of this discussion, don't forget that (1) ACA and Medicaid expansion may or may not be around forever, and (2) eventually you will have to go on Medicare, at which point your total costs will go up compared to a MAGI-optimized ACA/expanded Medicaid scenario.

Medicare has Medicare Savings Programs that will pay for co-pays and deductibles if your income is under the range of 100-135% FPL.  In my state there is a program to help pay for Part D expenses for low income households.  Social security runs a program called Extra Help that also helps with Part D expenses.

Thanks for pointing that out.  Obviously I'm clueless on that particular program, but just from briefly visiting the program's web page, it appears that it is means tested. https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/help-paying-costs/medicare-savings-program/medicare-savings-programs.html

The individual resource limits for a couple are under $12,000, so I don't see how a FIREee could qualify, unless you run out of money by the time you're 65.  But everything I know about that program I just read in the last 5 minutes, so if I am missing something, please educate me.

In NY there is no resource test.
http://www.wnylc.com/health/entry/99/

Interesting.  I wonder how NY gets around the means testing.  The federal web page gives no indication that states might waive the asset limit.  My state caps assets at $10k per couple.

[Monkey Uncle]

Regarding the health care aspect of this discussion, don't forget that (1) ACA and Medicaid expansion may or may not be around forever, and (2) eventually you will have to go on Medicare, at which point your total costs will go up compared to a MAGI-optimized ACA/expanded Medicaid scenario.

Medicare has Medicare Savings Programs that will pay for co-pays and deductibles if your income is under the range of 100-135% FPL.  In my state there is a program to help pay for Part D expenses for low income households.  Social security runs a program called Extra Help that also helps with Part D expenses.

Thanks for pointing that out.  Obviously I'm clueless on that particular program, but just from briefly visiting the program's web page, it appears that it is means tested. https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/help-paying-costs/medicare-savings-program/medicare-savings-programs.html

The individual resource limits for a couple are under $12,000, so I don't see how a FIREee could qualify, unless you run out of money by the time you're 65.  But everything I know about that program I just read in the last 5 minutes, so if I am missing something, please educate me.

In NY there is no resource test.
http://www.wnylc.com/health/entry/99/

Interesting.  I wonder how NY gets around the means testing.  The federal web page gives no indication that states might waive the asset limit.  My state caps assets at $10k per couple.

https://www.medicareinteractive.org/pdf/MSPFinancialEligibiltyGuidelines.pdf

Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Missis-sippi, New York, and Vermont do not apply asset limits.

Looks like the program is a no-go unless you live in one of the eight states listed above.  But worth keeping a check on, as things like that are bound to change some during a multi-decade FIRE.

[DreamFIRE]

Regarding the health care aspect of this discussion, don't forget that (1) ACA and Medicaid expansion may or may not be around forever, and (2) eventually you will have to go on Medicare, at which point your total costs will go up compared to a MAGI-optimized ACA/expanded Medicaid scenario.

The ACA is the law of the land for now.  At my planned subsidy level with ACA with MAGI just under 200% FPL, my budget for Medicare parts/supplemental won't change much from my planned ACA budget.

Looks like the program is a no-go unless you live in one of the eight states listed above.

With the income based means testing, it wouldn't be on my radar even if I lived in NY or one of those states.  At Medicare age, I'll have SS and have to shift more drawdown to my pre-tax 457B/401a plan, which generates more income, so my MAGI will go from <200% FPL during ACA to about 400% FPL at Medicare age, which would price me way out of that.  It looks like that program has limited funds allocated as well meant for poor people, which gets back to that ethical discussion in the other thread.

[redbird]

Some of those things are really weird to me. For example, the utilities category - I can't get below $200 for utilities + internet + phone in a month unless it's spring/fall when I don't have to run heat or air conditioning at all during the month. And I'm an extremely frugal spender for those things, with a $100/year phone cost, no cable TV whatsoever, no rental costs for an internet modem (got my own), keep the thermostat set high in the summer/low in the winter, almost never use the clothes dryer (I hang mine), only run the washing machine 1-2 times per week, and only use the dishwasher a few times a week at most (I wash dishes manually a lot). I live in a ~2300 square foot single family house that was built only a few years ago.

Most people in the US probably spend way more on utilities per month, especially if you include phone and internet costs in it, than I do.

These numbers will also wildly vary depending on where you live too, even in the same country. It's not just a HCOL vs LCOL housing cost difference or a temperature heat/AC difference. Food costs vary wildly in different locations. Trash costs vary. Even internet costs can vary wildly. If I want internet at my house, I'm not getting cheaper than ~$55/month for that (and that is typically introductory offers that only last ~1 year, then it goes up) in my location. The only way to get less than that is to just have no internet and go use free WiFi at the library or a store. I'm also having to pay $50/month for trash to the city. There's zero way to get out of that bill, no matter if you're renting or owning, where I live.

[simonsez]

I’m still trying to figure out how this clears anything up.

I’m looking at these numbers and they make no sense to me.
Internet and phone for “normal” and “fat” appear to be the same. Wouldn’t “fat” be more? More cell data, AppleCare for everyone’s brand new phones? Etc, etc
Or are we not considering “fat” to be a Bogleheads level of fat?
$200 is “lean”? DH and I are in Canada where internet and cell is particularly expensive and we only pay $140 for fairly generous internet and cell plans. I would think that “lean” could be done pretty damn cheap, no?
Are other household utilities included in that number?? Which ones? Electricity? Hot water? Heat?
If those are included, then “fat” could be $1-2K for someone heating a large house and a hot tub over the winter.

Are these just OP’s personal numbers? Or are they supposed to generalize to everyone, which seems rather impossible.

I agree.

OP, your recent poll should've told you already that the wide dispersion reflecting an order of magnitude difference for the extreme variance in FIRE planning means there are not universal numbers that will fit certain adjectives.

Have a plan that works for YOU and go with it.