2021 Toyota Mirai - Crazy good deal on a new car?

[dividendman]

The 2021 Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Assuming you live near a hydrogen station in California the price/incentives seems crazy good, unless I'm missing something:

MSRP for the 2021 XLE (base) is $50k, let's say the 7.5% sales tax and other closing BS makes it 55k.

Toyota has a 20K cash back incentive right now so that brings to 35k.

There is a federal tax credit of $8k, so now we're at 27k.

There is a California tax credit (the fund of which is exhausted for 2021 but will likely be renewed) of 4.5k, so now we're at 22.5k.

Toyota then gives you $15k to buy hydrogen for up to 6 years (whichever is exhausted first, the 15k or the 6 years, so basically no gas expense for 6 years).

So, if you drive a fair amount in California, you might spend $10k of this in the 6 years... so 12.5k for a new car?

They also give you 21 days of free rental cars for 3 years in case you need to go somewhere that it outside of a hydrogen refilling area.

Am I missing something here?

[ericrugiero]

How does the cost of hydrogen compare to the cost of gas?  For a fuel efficient gas car to drive 400 miles at 40 mpg with $3/gallon gas it would cost $30.  How much would it cost to drive a Mirai 400 miles at current hydrogen prices (once the free hydrogen is gone)? 

Sounds like a really good deal for the right person in the right location.  I just don't know anything about the cost or availability of hydrogen in California.  You would be rolling the dice on what the availability and price of hydrogen will be in 6 years. 

[dividendman]

How does the cost of hydrogen compare to the cost of gas?  For a fuel efficient gas car to drive 400 miles at 40 mpg with $3/gallon gas it would cost $30.  How much would it cost to drive a Mirai 400 miles at current hydrogen prices (once the free hydrogen is gone)? 

Sounds like a really good deal for the right person in the right location.  I just don't know anything about the cost or availability of hydrogen in California.  You would be rolling the dice on what the availability and price of hydrogen will be in 6 years.

Currently hydrogen is more than 4x the cost of gas for the same mileage (assuming you don't have a gas guzzler). It will theoretically go down in a few years. But yeah, I guess that's the gamble.

Actually, it's only a gamble if you can't sell the car in 6 years for 12k.

[ericrugiero]

How does the cost of hydrogen compare to the cost of gas?  For a fuel efficient gas car to drive 400 miles at 40 mpg with $3/gallon gas it would cost $30.  How much would it cost to drive a Mirai 400 miles at current hydrogen prices (once the free hydrogen is gone)? 

Sounds like a really good deal for the right person in the right location.  I just don't know anything about the cost or availability of hydrogen in California.  You would be rolling the dice on what the availability and price of hydrogen will be in 6 years.

Currently hydrogen is more than 4x the cost of gas for the same mileage (assuming you don't have a gas guzzler). It will theoretically go down in a few years. But yeah, I guess that's the gamble.

Actually, it's only a gamble if you can't sell the car in 6 years for 12k.

Yes, but the value of the car in 6 years will be highly dependent on the cost of hydrogen.  And, if hydrogen is 4X the price, that means the free hydrogen is worth $4,000 of gas.