With the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act, it would seem that there will now be a 30% incentive for solar, up to $8,000 for installing a new heat pump, and $840 for installing a new induction stove.
So it seems. However, other than the 30% solar credit, I believe the rest are pretty severely income gated based on median income in your area, so it's not a given that you can get the full credit for them. Check your income vs the limits before assuming you'll get the credit.
If everything ran off electricity, the idea of having zero energy bill forever for both house and car(s) seems pretty amazing.
If you're going to replace
everything gas and shut off your gas service, that would make sense, if you're OK with the reduction in energy diversity. That's not a bet I'd be making right now the way global energy systems are going. Also, check what your area's net metering policies are, and what they're likely to be in the future if you can find information on that. The legacy kWh for kWh net metering, use the grid for free sort of arrangements are very rapidly going away, so just because you have solar doesn't automatically mean a zero energy bill. Solar groups tend opposed to this, but I've no real problems with it, the grid has to be maintained somehow, and the energy bit of the bill isn't usually the dominant factor. So don't just assume "solar means no energy bill." It may, for some while, but you can tell a solar salesperson is lying when their lips are moving, so do your own research on what's in your area. Then do your own solar, because you can do it for around $1.25/W installed if you do the work yourself. Pre-incentive.
Is it crazy to consider replacing a brand new natural gas furnace with a heat pump, along with a brand new gas stove for an induction stove?
The heat pump, no, though if you live anywhere particularly cold, you probably want to get it set up as a dual fuel system, in which the gas furnace will take over when the outdoor temperatures are low enough. You get the energy efficiency of the heat pump during the shoulder seasons, and the output of the gas furnace in the dead of winter, if it's particularly cold. With as little as you'd be using the gas furnace, it should last about forever - just be sure to fire it every month or so during the winter to keep any corrosion at bay.
As for the induction stove, is your kitchen wired for electric to the stove? Unless you've got a 14-50 outlet down there or something similar, you're also going to have to pay someone to run electrical wiring to the kitchen, and a fairly hefty bundle of it (40-50A). It's not staggeringly expensive, but neither is it trivially cheap.
If you want to use less gas, you might get a countertop 120V induction plate and use that, see how you like it. I know some people who use those almost exclusively because they don't like their stovetop.
Normally, I feel like it would be pretty stupid to spend a lot of money to switch those items over since brand new, but it seems like the incentives might make it either a VERY low cost switch, or possibly no cost at all. I'm sure I could recoup some money by selling the like new gas stove if I replace it, and I hope to find an HVAC installer who would swap the heat pump out and take the like new gas furnace as full or partial payment for the work done. If the existing ductwork for central heat and air could be used, maybe it would be feasible?
Again, where's your income? As I understand it, you only get 100% rebate if you're below 80% of the median area income, 50% rebate from 80% to 150%, and nothing above that. It's possible you're down there, but with what sounds like brand new construction, an EV... you don't sound like the target for that, and it might take some serious creativity to get your AGI down far enough. You might be able to get some credit for the nearly-new units, but I wouldn't count on that, either. I know what used gas ranges go for from kitchen remodels, and it's pennies on the dollar. Good for buyers, bad for sellers.
Depending on your electrical service and panel, you might also have some issues with panel capacity - adding 50A for a stove, having the backfeed space for solar, etc... will require a pretty good sized panel. My experience has been that "gas homes" tend to be pretty badly underpaneled if you want to pure electric, so there are costs to be had there as well.
Am I crazy for considering changing out brand new items?
Mostly. If it works out as you hope it will, it might be a decent plan, but I seriously doubt it will work like you hope it does, and I think you'll be out an awful lot of money for fairly minimal gains.
Obviously I will want to make sure that my local utilities buys back excess electricity at full price but I *think* that is the case. So a properly sized solar system can produce excess energy when I don't need it, in order to cover heating costs during cloudy days.
The question there is not only what they're doing now, but what things might change to. I ended up, mostly through luck and optimism, grandfathered into a kWh for kWh plan until late 2045 with my solar install, but that's very unusual. Most of the time, if you have solar and they decide to change the rate schedules to reduce payout, that just applies. So if some solar payback promises are on a 30 year schedule, don't assume things will remain unchanged for 30 years.
But with the exception of solar, all of it hinges on your income and how low you can get that.
