If bitcoin fails (should we say when?) what might replace it?

[Roland of Gilead]

I am curious to get in on the ground floor of the next currency idea if bitcoin should fail.

Any ideas what it might be?

[GuitarStv]

tulips

[arebelspy]

There has to be some compelling reason for something to rise up and take its spot.

I do think there may eventually be a digital currency that becomes dominant and useful.

But BitCoin gained traction as a novelty - it was the first.  If and when it falls, there has to be something unique or special for the next one to become prominent above the others and, further, to actually be used.

Especially because it will have the hurdle of the skepticism from BitCoin failing.

[Ottawa]

Speculation - get rich quick mentality - don't do it! It is the classic assumption that the past will predict future...assuming you know which up-and-comer will be the next bitcoin. Pennystocks would be a better bet.

OR  index investing

Tulips definitely - cause they will make you happy and get you outside.

[Roland of Gilead]

Speculation - get rich quick mentality - don't do it! It is the classic assumption that the past will predict future...assuming you know which up-and-comer will be the next bitcoin. Pennystocks would be a better bet.

OR  index investing

Tulips definitely - cause they will make you happy and get you outside.

There is a difference between speculation and realizing opportunity.

But even so, the first 10,000 bitcoins went for the price of two pizzas.  I can afford to risk $30 (or even $40 if they want meat lovers)

[GuitarStv]

Speculation - get rich quick mentality - don't do it! It is the classic assumption that the past will predict future...assuming you know which up-and-comer will be the next bitcoin. Pennystocks would be a better bet.

OR  index investing

Tulips definitely - cause they will make you happy and get you outside.

There is a difference between speculation and realizing opportunity.

But even so, the first 10,000 bitcoins went for the price of two pizzas.  I can afford to risk $30 (or even $40 if they want meat lovers)

OK then, paypal me your 30-40$ and I'll give you 10,000 of my new currency . . . buttcoins (PATENT PENDING PATENT PENDING PATENT PENDING).  Could be the next big thing.

[Ottawa]

Speculation - get rich quick mentality - don't do it! It is the classic assumption that the past will predict future...assuming you know which up-and-comer will be the next bitcoin. Pennystocks would be a better bet.

OR  index investing

Tulips definitely - cause they will make you happy and get you outside.

There is a difference between speculation and realizing opportunity.

But even so, the first 10,000 bitcoins went for the price of two pizzas.  I can afford to risk $30 (or even $40 if they want meat lovers)

OK then, paypal me your 30-40$ and I'll give you 10,000 of my new currency . . . buttcoins (PATENT PENDING PATENT PENDING PATENT PENDING).  Could be the next big thing.

LOL...I thought someone else might jump on that...do I get a 10% finders fee?**

** Just because.

[Roland of Gilead]

Maybe I should abandon this idea and try my other idea:

Start a kickstarter campaign to establish a kickstarter clone business.

[GuitarStv]

Speculation - get rich quick mentality - don't do it! It is the classic assumption that the past will predict future...assuming you know which up-and-comer will be the next bitcoin. Pennystocks would be a better bet.

OR  index investing

Tulips definitely - cause they will make you happy and get you outside.

There is a difference between speculation and realizing opportunity.

But even so, the first 10,000 bitcoins went for the price of two pizzas.  I can afford to risk $30 (or even $40 if they want meat lovers)

OK then, paypal me your 30-40$ and I'll give you 10,000 of my new currency . . . buttcoins (PATENT PENDING PATENT PENDING PATENT PENDING).  Could be the next big thing.

LOL...I thought someone else might jump on that...do I get a 10% finders fee?**

** Just because.

Our corporate policy is to pay all finders fees in buttcoins.

[tomq04]

I've rah rah'd on behalf of bitcoin before.  I suspect we will get a cryptocurrency 2.0 in the near future.  I believe that it is just as likely to be bitcoin as any other one.

There is some serious big venture capital money going into bitcoin companies and I have reasonable faith it is here to stay.  That being said "investing" in it is moderately moronic, but helping get involved isn't.  Having a few bucks worth to throw around and actually getting out and talking to businesses about the benefits is all good for cryptocurrency in general.

I've heard it best compared to texting back in its infancy.  T9, one letter at a time, that's about where we are, it won't be long until we are at smart phone level of acceptance, just a matter of time before coinbase/square/circle etc gets it right and really easy for public consumption.

Also of note, it is really taking off just about everywhere but north america, I suspect we will be the late comers to the game.

[arebelspy]

There is some serious big venture capital money going into bitcoin companies and I have reasonable faith it is here to stay.

I don't know how the first part of this second leads to the second.  Speculation is nothing new to them.

[warfreak2]

The successor to Bitcoin (et al.) will not be a new currency. It will be a more convenient and efficient way to trade with the perfectly good currencies we already use. My prediction is for peer-to-peer banking and payment processing, built upon existing trust relationships and the already well-understood principles of public key cryptography.

It's hard to imagine the general populace buying into a new currency; even Bitcoin at its peak was a fringe "look at this ridiculous internet money" sideshow. Private individuals who found new currencies just make the impression that they are cynics who want to get rich by printing their own money, and the arguments in favour of Bitcoin in particular really only appealed to geeks who like the novelty, and extreme libertarian lunatics who measure currencies by their similarity to gold.

[Spork]

The successor to Bitcoin (et al.) will not be a new currency. It will be a more convenient and efficient way to trade with the perfectly good currencies we already use. My prediction is for peer-to-peer banking and payment processing, built upon existing trust relationships and the already well-understood principles of public key cryptography.

It's hard to imagine the general populace buying into a new currency; even Bitcoin at its peak was a fringe "look at this ridiculous internet money" sideshow. Private individuals who found new currencies just make the impression that they are cynics who want to get rich by printing their own money, and the arguments in favour of Bitcoin in particular really only appealed to geeks who like the novelty, and extreme libertarian lunatics who measure currencies by their similarity to gold.

This is one of the first reasonable predictions I've heard.... and I'm one of those libertarian lunatics (but extremely skeptical of bitcoin or any sort of speculation.)

[Flaneur]

bitcoin (lower case B), the currency, might not last because it serves little to zero purpose for people who have access to the legacy banking system. Bitcoin (upper case B), the protocol/ledger/platform isn't going anywhere for a while and when it does it will be superseded by another decentralized cryptocurrency with a public ledger.

To say Bitcoin and cryptocurrency appeal only to geeks and those adorning tinfoil hats is presumptuous and short-sighted. How can you determine who this technology appeals to when 99.9999% of the world is completely oblivious to it? Do you know how many people in this world own cell phones with SMS capability? Do you know how many people in this world who have those cell phones do not have access to legitimate financial systems as banking, lending, person-to-person transfers, enforceable contracts, etc.? Do you know how much in fees and taxes these people pay to send funds from one another? How many people want to start businesses but can't because they don't have the funding? How many of those people could potentially get the funding from others via crowdfunding on the web? How many of these people were surveyed about digital payment systems before the comment about geeks and libertarians was made?

Thinking of Bitcoin as an investment, as something you can profit from, is missing the point. Digital financial systems are not about making it easier for rich white people to buy their lattes via iPhone, but giving the other six billion people on this planet access to a financial platform they otherwise wouldn't.

The internet did not appeal to the masses at infancy. Neither did email. You had to be a geek or a freak/weird dude to use either of those pieces of technology when they were first made available. But, here we are -- in 2014 -- using internet and email as integral parts of our lives. Digital payment systems and cryptocurrency aren't any different.

Before forming an opinion of digital payment systems I would recommend spending the ~50 hours of study requisite to develop an understanding of what they are and what their capabilities are as it's way more than currency.

[warfreak2]

bitcoin (lower case B), the currency, might not last because it serves little to zero purpose for people who have access to the legacy banking system. Bitcoin (upper case B), the protocol/ledger/platform isn't going anywhere for a while and when it does it will be superseded by another decentralized cryptocurrency with a public ledger.

No. A new currency is a really terrible way of enabling electronic transactions, a public ledger is a really terrible way of maintaining a currency, and the Bitcoin (with your capital B) protocol is a really terrible way of maintaining a public ledger.

To say Bitcoin and cryptocurrency appeal only to geeks and those adorning tinfoil hats [...]

The rest of your post is irrelevant because I simply didn't say this. You describe the utility of efficient electronic transaction systems, which I don't, and didn't, dispute in the slightest. I referred to the arguments in favour of Bitcoin in particular, over other solutions, and said they were of limited appeal. That isn't even to say that Bitcoin itself is of limited appeal, let alone that efficient electronic transaction systems are. (Also I made no reference to Bitcoin as an "investment", as opposed to an electronic transaction system.) But at least you found a way to be angry, I guess?

[tomq04]

Thinking of Bitcoin as an investment, as something you can profit from, is missing the point. Digital financial systems are not about making it easier for rich white people to buy their lattes via iPhone, but giving the other six billion people on this planet access to a financial platform they otherwise wouldn't.

The internet did not appeal to the masses at infancy. Neither did email. You had to be a geek or a freak/weird dude to use either of those pieces of technology when they were first made available. But, here we are -- in 2014 -- using internet and email as integral parts of our lives. Digital payment systems and cryptocurrency aren't any different.

Before forming an opinion of digital payment systems I would recommend spending the ~50 hours of study requisite to develop an understanding of what they are and what their capabilities are as it's way more than currency.

This is exactly what i've tried to communicate for a month, however after reading this statement, I realized I pretty much suck at communication!  Great post!

[warfreak2]

Before forming an opinion of digital payment systems I would recommend spending the ~50 hours of study requisite to develop an understanding of what they are and what their capabilities are as it's way more than currency.

Just noticed this part and lol'd. I have done a lot more than 50 hours of study on the subject...

Generally, don't assume that if only everyone else were aware of the facts, they would have the same opinions as you.

[Sonorous Epithet]

No one else has mentioned that there already are hundreds of cryptocurrencies out there. There's a tracker here: http://coinmarketcap.com/. It's relatively trivial to start your own cryptocurrency, so sometimes people will do it just for fun, to see how it works.

Out of the supposed $6.9 billion market cap, Bitcoin accounts for $6.2bn.

Litecoin and Dogecoin are the only other ones I have really heard being used. Actually, I've never heard of Litecoin being used, only mined.

I think cryptocurrency is silly right now, though. It's barely functional as an actual currency, because actual (useful) currencies are relatively stable.

Here's my take (Disclaimer: I have far less than 50 hours of research into Bitcoins): If Bitcoins are continually mined, increasing their supply steadily, why would the price go up, not down? You would expect Bitcoin prices to be inflationary, just like the US Dollar. Well, it's gotta be because demand is outpacing the rise in supply. And why would demand increase on something that intrinsically should fall in value because it is becoming increasingly less scarce? Because: have you seen the news lately? People are getting rich of this stuff! Hence, speculative bubble.

[arebelspy]

Here's my take (Disclaimer: I have far less than 50 hours of research into Bitcoins): If Bitcoins are continually mined, increasing their supply steadily, why would the price go up, not down? You would expect Bitcoin prices to be inflationary, just like the US Dollar. Well, it's gotta be because demand is outpacing the rise in supply. And why would demand increase on something that intrinsically should fall in value because it is becoming increasingly less scarce? Because: have you seen the news lately? People are getting rich of this stuff! Hence, speculative bubble.

There is a limit to the number of BitCoins that can be mined.  A hard limit on the total number out there.  As more are mined, the difficulty of mining increases.

As wallets are lost, less BitCoins are out there.

It's inherently a deflationary currency.

[greaper007]

Whatever currency is tied to Esperanto.

[tomq04]

It's inherently a deflationary currency.

Bitcoin is deflationary as arebelspy said.

Other alt's like dogecoin are inflationary and do not have a cap.  Curious which way will win in the end.

[Roland of Gilead]

Bitcoin is deflationary as arebelspy said.

Other alt's like dogecoin are inflationary and do not have a cap.  Curious which way will win in the end.

I predict the virtual currency that succeeds will be the one that makes bankers the most money.  This is how it has been for the last 5000 years or so.

[grantmeaname]

Yeah, even the Babylonian bankers had no trouble profiting of digital cryptocurrencies.

[MidWestLove]

IMHO Bitcoin may or may not succeed (likely not as it was trailblazer and was first - not everything that is first wins, see MySpace as example)
However, the temptation of the currency our government can not instantly inflate for its own purposes is just too great so more of cryptocurrencies would be coming and they would be better.
as far as all complaints about bitcoin (hard to trace, could be used for various shady deals ,etc) - it all applies to cash and have not been a showstopper yet.

[grantmeaname]

However, the temptation of the currency our government can not instantly inflate for its own purposes is just too great so more of cryptocurrencies would be coming and they would be better.

Too great for what? Why does the fact that a central bank regulates the money supply mean that real currencies are worse? I don't follow your logic.

as far as all complaints about bitcoin (hard to trace, could be used for various shady deals ,etc) - it all applies to cash and have not been a showstopper yet.

Cash isn't hard to trace at all. If you get a meaningful amount of cash out of the bank, the bank and the banking system's regulators will know.

[MidWestLove]

"Too great for what? Why does the fact that a central bank regulates the money supply mean that real currencies are worse? I don't follow your logic."

look at the purchasing power of the dollar and then tell me how "central bank regulation" of money supply is working for us. Plus, as person coming from former Soviet Union , I am biased against unlimited ability of the government to inflate as it is exactly what it will do in a pitch screwing its population along the way. lived through that on personal experience where the same amount that could purchase an apartment had ability to buy a jacket to wear in less than 2 year and a ability to buy a loaf of bread a year later.

"Cash isn't hard to trace at all. If you get a meaningful amount of cash out of the bank, the bank and the banking system's regulators will know"

so you say your $100 purchase in cash is now traceable? do not confuse AML regulations (10k and above limits) with routine purchase traceability which is much lower for cash vs anything else I know of.

[warfreak2]

You don't have to think that government control of the money supply is good, in order to think that no control over the money supply is worse. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins, but those same bitcoins are supposed to support an expanding economy. Result: totally predictable deflation. Result: hoarding. Result: more deflation.

As you pointed out, you have experience with the negative effects of too much inflation. However, even a small sustained level of deflation has negative effects too. 0% inflation is too damn close, and it can't be controlled so precisely; 2-3% appears to be a good, safe level for it to wobble around.

[grantmeaname]

look at the purchasing power of the dollar and then tell me how "central bank regulation" of money supply is working for us.

Pretty damn good. Steady inflation of about 2% a year ever since that's what the central bank decided to target. Merciful and short recessions every time a major macroeconomic crisis has occurred and the Fed has responded with the correct monetary policy (the one exception being the Great Depression, where the Fed was using contractionary policy based on the misguided "Real Bills" doctrine). No currency crises ever. No failures of major exchanges that make it impossible to exchange my currency for something of value, because there's useful regulation. And so on.

Plus, as person coming from former Soviet Union , I am biased against unlimited ability of the government to inflate as it is exactly what it will do in a pitch screwing its population along the way. lived through that on personal experience where the same amount that could purchase an apartment had ability to buy a jacket to wear in less than 2 year and a ability to buy a loaf of bread a year later.

Sure. But what does that have to do with bitcoin? You're making a logical leap from a single action taken by the government of a failed economic system to a generalization about all currencies which have their inflation controlled by something other than the ratio of the speed at which graphics cards get faster to the speed at which people start offering goods in that currency.

[Mod Edit: Fixed quote tags.]

[FrugalZony]

I am curious to get in on the ground floor of the next currency idea if bitcoin should fail.

Any ideas what it might be?

Here you go! You are welcome!

Goal 5: Displace US Dollar with "Arebelbucks" Currency

• Encourage alternative market based on Badassitude instead of Consumer Suckeritude.
• Initially tie Arebelbucks to Dollar with conversion based on conditions in Badassitude market.
• Provide minor incentives to my 10,000,000 tenets to pay in Arebelbucks instead of dollars.
• As Badassitude Market gains acceptance, decouple Arebelbucks into free-floating currency which will assume the natural roll as reserve currency of Badassitude.
• Totally bankrupt Consumer Suckeritude, which will eventually crumble under the weight of its own irrelevance.

[GuitarStv]

I don't like this competing interest on my Buttcoins. . .

[Cassie]

Bitcoin has been approved to be on the Nasdaq & NY stock exchange by the end of the year.  This will go a long way in helping it become mainstream.

[rocketpj]

There is likely to be some kind of currency upheaval over the next few years as the poorly designed Euro continues to cause havoc.  I'm not sure what the outcomes will be - I doubt any currency is safe, but I am not a clairvoyant.

That said, I'd like to see a single global currency that works, probably defined as a measure of a basket of currencies.  Right now the default global currency is the US dollar, and much shenanigans have been possible for the US as a result (nobody else can print money without serious consequences).  At some point that will change, probably in a crisis of some sort. 

At that change point there is likely to be a digital currency in place.  I doubt it will be Bitcoin, but it will be something different and hopefully global.

[grantmeaname]

That said, I'd like to see a single global currency that works

Works for what?