I need to stop relying on Luck. How to learn resilience?

[FIREin2018]

I've lived my life on luck.
No planning... just happy go lucky.
And managed to FiRE at age 47 in 2018.

Here's my post from 2020 (4yrs ago) where I thought my luck had run out:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/what-to-do-when-you-feel-like-your-luck-has-run-out/

I had an unexpected $10k dental work. That was the 1st major bad luck i've had. (Yeah, my life has been very lucky if a $10k expected bill after FiRE was the worse thing that happened to me.)
Sidenote: After going to another dentist for a 2nd option, got it all done for a few hundred.

Back to luck:
So i FiRED in 2018 because I got laid off. That got me crunching #s and as long as i keep my expenses low, I didn't need to work again.
At that time, I had no clue about Sequence of Returns Risk.

the S&p 500 was at 2700 in mid-2018.
Now it's at 5200, almost double.

I wasn't worried about the stock market sinking during Covid because it'll be 10+ yrs till i touch my retirement funds.
I've been beaten over the head by Bogleheads to not worry because it's far away and it'll probably recover.
Plus as long as i maintain my AA for my age (ie: bonds = Age - 10, 40% max), I'll do fine even if it doesn't.

I never head of Sequence of Return Risk till after Covid.
And I lucked out on that with the stock market almost doubling since i FiRED 6 yrs ago.

But i need to stop thinking my luck will never run out.
That's hubris.

I need to learn resilience for when that event happens.
But how?

[Posthumane]

I think in a broad sense resilience comes from knowing that you can weather a variety of hardships, and one of the best ways of gaining that knowledge is from actually exposing yourself to those hardships in a controlled manner. You can start small and work your way up to larger challenges if you get through the lesser ones without issue, or if you don't then you can learn from the experience and try again.

So, for example, if you want to see if you can weather a financial difficulty such as losing a large percentage of your stache then try living on a smaller percentage of your regular spending amount and find out what changes (if any) you need to make in order for that to work. More than likely you will find it's actually not that much of a challenge and you will become more comfortable knowing that if you do lose that chunk of money you'll be able to get through it.

Another thing that practicing the various hardships that may come into your life does for you is it builds your mental toolkit that you have at your disposal for dealing with problems. For example, if you learn DIY skills you will be less worried about stuff breaking and having to pay someone to fix it or replace it because you will know how to fix it yourself. You can take this to the extreme and learn how to live in the wild and be completely self sufficient, growing and hunting your own food, building your own shelter, and so on. Then you would know you would be able to deal with losing almost everything and still get through it. You don't actually need to go that far (unless you want to) but it's useful even as just a thought exercise.

[vand]

That you recognise your good luck is probably a reasonable sign that you have both mental and practical contingency in place for the time the pendulum swings the other way.  If you want to really HTFU maybe join the army or do an Iron-Man.

[Ron Scott]

Luck is 90% of the game.

The fact that I was born white; in the NYC land of opportunity; and to parents who loved me, valued education, and had strong work ethics, is all the luck I ever needed. But then I landed a job in a data science non-profit that eventually IPOed after I’d become an exec. In retirement I look back and think “what was that all about?” Well, it was all about luck.

Anyone who built wealth by investing in the stock market after 2008 is extremely lucky. If the promises of technology are realized (in artificial intelligence, biotechnology/genomics, and clean energy) that luck will continue. Otherwise our luck will run out.

Anyone who is reliant on continued strong gains in the stock market is actually “betting” on luck.  Not the best strategy. People who are in that position and want to prepare for the worst, can either make peace with the idea of a lower standard of living, or find a way to bring in income. It’s simple math.

[mistymoney]

Generally - since you are kind of over the SORR danger zone during the 5-10 years post fire, your luck seems to hold for SORR.

One thing COVID highlighted was our dependence on the global supply chain, so a piece of your future resilience plan could be to future proof against shortages. Like a large store of dried beans, seed for kitchen sprouts for quick access to some fresh food, gardening seeds in case you need to grow your own or supplement super high grocery prices. Those are all easy and cheap! If you've never made counter top sprouts or done any vegetable gardening, would be a good idea to experiment in that area so you have the skills to put it into practice immediately without trial and error.

Higher ticket items would be converting house to electric, with storage and solar, an EV, etc.

Those are more back ups rather than building resilience as a person. But I think resilience comes in when you can manage things when the outside resources aren't there for you any more.

Financially, the usually endorsed paid off home, no debt, low overhead, etc.

other than that, I go nothing!

I wasn't worried about the stock market sinking during Covid because it'll be 10+ yrs till i touch my retirement funds.

Not sure I'm understanding this....all your stocks were in retirement funds, so you had cash bonds to live off since 2018? Or what was the scenario?

[use2betrix]

I would prescribe reading one of my favorite books, and a recommendation from MMM, “A Guide to the Good Life.”

In it, the author speaks in depth about a technique called negative visualization. This would help both in preparation and weathering any of those events, should they happen.

The author has also written a book called, “The Stoic Challenge,” which is also fantastic and may be even better suited to help. Many of the issues he runs into and how he addresses them are quite comical.

[Laura33]

Start doing hard shit.  Doesn't matter what -- physical, artistic, building, etc.  Push yourself, get uncomfortable, fail, get back up, try again.  You learn to be resilient by being resilient.   When you navigage little hardships that don't matter, you're training your brain to deal with the big ones that actually do.   

Most of us learn this just through life.  But if life hasn't thrown you opportunities to fail -- or if your "I'm lucky" mindset means you failed to notice the ones presented to you -- then you need to create your own. 

And yeah, it truly doesn't matter what area you pick -- it doesn't matter what you do, just that you do it.  When I got to the gym and got involved in strongman stuff, I felt like a total badass, and that bled over into every other aspect of my life.  I still remember being on a conference call at work and just suddenly realizing that I was really, really good at my job and people should listen to me.* 

And then keep doing it.  When I stopped during Covid and when my coach moved away, so did feeling like a badass, and that also bled over into the rest of my life.  It's just like going to the gym -- it's just training your brain and your emotions, not your body.

So just pick something that sounds interesting + hard + scary.  Then go do it.  Rinse, repeat.


*Yeah, it sounds egotistical.  But for someone who suffered from imposter syndrome for literally decades, it was a big thing for me to give myself credit. 

[mathlete]

Great answers from everyone! I used to think the world was entirely talent-driven. I had math talent and pursued mathy things. I didn't have musical talent and I was bad in band. I considered that "luck" because being in the top 10% of mathematical ability is a pathway to hundreds of thousands of jobs, meanwhile, there are a ton of incredible musicians who are unemployed or underemployed.

Eventually though, I found out that while I wasn't and would never be a great brass player, I actually learned some good music theory concepts just by being in band. And many years later, I used that to go from being a 0/10 on playing the piano to maybe a 2/10 by leveraging the music theory to learn songs that I like to play, rather than whatever the band director picked out.

So lucky dice rolls on talent or circumstances are important. But also, you can get better at things. You can probably become better than average (though still unremarkable) at most things.

Prove that to yourself a couple of times and you'll be good.

[Laura33]

One other thought:  you may be able to re-set your thinking by looking at the hardships that you did actually face.  Your resiliency fears all seem to focus around money -- dental work, market crashes, etc.  But even from what little you've posted, you have faced hard situations -- like, say, getting laid off.  To many people, that would be a really big deal, even if they were fine at the end of it (AMHIK).  But you portray it as this awesome thing that allowed you to FIRE, without any angst or concern at all. 

Maybe you're just an optimist, and your self-perception of being "lucky" prevents you from seeing that you have already faced a bunch of objectively hard things, and you've handled them with aplomb.  If that's the case, then the real question is why do you lose all faith in your ability to handle money issues the same way you've handled everything else?

[ChpBstrd]

There are 3 "resilient" things mentioned in the OP.

1) When faced with a $10k dental bill, got a second opinion instead of giving up. Not everyone would go through that trouble.

2) Didn't sell during the 2020 pandemic, which killed millions of people worldwide and left millions more with disabling long-term symptoms.

3) Looking back upon fearful / unpleasant times to learn from them. Most people just move on to the next emergency in their lives, and don't seek to measure their own previous responses to things in order to improve strategy or assess one's own capacities.

So maybe you don't have as much an issue with mental resilience as you are concerned about?

I do second the suggestions to take on hard things like doing exercise to build physical resilience, or reading the Stoics to become even mentally tougher. There's always a new vector for improvement, even after acing the past 5-6 years of hard tests. E.g. What vice habit could you drop with some effort? Are you helping or mentoring anyone who might not be so lucky? Are you contributing to your community? How much garbage is in your diet? That sort of stuff.

[eyesonthehorizon]

... And then keep doing it.  When I stopped during Covid and when my coach moved away, so did feeling like a badass, and that also bled over into the rest of my life.  It's just like going to the gym -- it's just training your brain and your emotions, not your body. ...

A penny dropped just here. Seconding this advice, because it explains a lot for me.

[Metalcat]

Resilience just means the capacity to adapt.

It sounds like you've been adapting just fine in life, which you interpret as "luck."

I'm not really sure what you are looking for in terms of being more "resilient."

Is there something about your life you aren't happy with? If so, do some difficult things and change that. But if you are optimally happy with your life, then keep doing what you're doing, because obviously you pretty naturally adapt to change in ways that cultivate the life you want.

I've known a lot of very "lucky" people who have had very easy lives and they are, on average, pretty miserable people who feel a certain amount of emptiness because they've never felt empowered to make decisions, autonomy scares the living fuck out of them.

It doesn't sound at all like you lack autonomy. You seem to take things in life, examine them, and make decisions that make sense for you.

Sure, you've never suffered a major financial setback...okay, so what would you do if you did?? That's easily something you can reflect on and plan for.

The pattern of the threads you have started suggests you're going through some phase of self-doubt. So I would focus on why that's happening now. What is driving this sudden need to question your own choices and capacities when in the past you've apparently been so comfortable just acting autonomously and decisively?

That's what I would focus on. Why the sudden self doubt? What purpose is it trying to serve?