i might be market timing. help!

[celticblue]

All thoughts are appreciated.

I have a large expense to pay over an approx 16-18 month period. I can start it immediately or wait about one more year. I will be paying approx $9,000 per month. It will come from not putting the same money into the market. Meaning it will always be paid from current income rather than selling assets. I am concerned I am  market timing.

I could either start setting aside money now (ie not put into market now) so the 16-18 months starts now. Or I could carry on investing (VASGX) and then start the expense later. Once I start I cannot stop or pause. Once this expenditure is complete I will FIRE.

So if the market tanks as I begin paying I will lose the ability to be "buying low". Right prior to FIRE. If it does not tank I will begin FIRE after a historically long bull market with increased sequence of return risks.

As I say this it just feels like every other post on market timing. But I have a real expense, that I get choice about when to start, and I would like to make sure I am understanding my options in the best way. And whether I am missing something some obvious strategy.

[sokoloff]

To me, this question is more about FIRE timing than market timing. If you must pay over time and will FIRE when you're done, then whether you start now or a year from now changes your FIRE date by a year. That's more important than market timing IMO.

I'm definitely suffering from "OMY" (one more year [of working]) as we could retire now financially, but life circumstances (two kids and a job that I basically enjoy) mean I've decided to keep working until they're off to college, so I'd be inclined in your situation to delay and invest for 12 more months, but again, that's nothing to do with market timing and my own bias towards an overly-luxe retirement, even if a shorter one.

[DarkandStormy]

Well, when you FIRE (or now) you should switch to a more conservative AA.  You could move have of your VASGX holdings to VWINX (or something similar).  That way, if the market does crash, you only have ~25-40% of your stash in stocks.