Poll

How many FIRE numbers do you have?

One is all I need
28 (24.3%)
Two
24 (20.9%)
Three
42 (36.5%)
Four
5 (4.3%)
Five
3 (2.6%)
Six
1 (0.9%)
I have so many options you'll be surprised if I ever settle on one!
12 (10.4%)

Total Members Voted: 115

Author Topic: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?  (Read 4872 times)

jlcnuke

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How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« on: April 12, 2019, 05:34:08 AM »
Personally, I have a "lean" FIRE (not really lean, but not allowing for as much travel etc spending that I'd prefer to have) number and a "this is what I'd like for FIRE" number (that should allow me to spend what I'd like to and do the things I'd like to without too much concern about costs for those things). Additionally, for each of those I have a "3-year part time FIRE" number, where I work part time (well, full-time but only for a few months out of the year - doing contract work in my industry) for 3 years, allowing me to "semi-FIRE" for those years, while my stache grows to support full-FIRE, and my not-full-time job income covers my spending for those years.

How many options are you giving yourself right now?

tipster350

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2019, 06:35:58 AM »
I have three. The leanest number ia little leaner than your description of number 1. The next number will allow more extras and wiggle room, and the third is what will make me feel more comfortable and do more travel, and pay for more services.

I started the singles poll because I am really tired and considering the leanest number. I wanted to see what others are targeting for their FIRE number.

I think if this period ends without me pulling the plug, I'll probably end up with number #2.

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2019, 08:13:51 AM »
Personally, I have a "lean" FIRE (not really lean, but not allowing for as much travel etc spending that I'd prefer to have) number and a "this is what I'd like for FIRE" number (that should allow me to spend what I'd like to and do the things I'd like to without too much concern about costs for those things). Additionally, for each of those I have a "3-year part time FIRE" number...

That is so close to my situation. 

1. A “lean” number which covers our current standard of living, assuming we paid off the mortgage from our cash reserves.  (There is only 15 months left on the note so there is <$8000 remaining.)  I am very thankful we have surpassed this number already.  Because 26% of this level of spending is discretionary - donations, travel/entertainment, replace two cars with new vehicles every 12 years, etc. the “lean” part of the title doesn’t really mean what some others’ “lean” implies. 

2. A desired standard of living number.  This starts at our “lean” rate and just triples our “entertainment/travel” category.  It assumes a certain rate for health insurance based on this year’s silver plan (even though bronze seems more cost effective).  44% of this number is discretionary spending.

3. My “work at the gas station” number.  This is an ever-shrinking number of hours I (and/or my wife) would need to work some part-time job (based on the wage I see posted at my corner gas station) to make up the difference between my desired standard spending and what my portfolio could generate now.  This is a pretty much imaginary number that I like to think of when I get upset by something at my current workplace. 

Raenia

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2019, 08:15:58 AM »
We have 3 as well.

 - a CoastFI number, at which we could go down to one income or even one earner part time to support our expenses while the stash continues to grow.  Will most likely not use this one, though it is an option if we want to have a SAHP once we have kids
 - a LeanFI number, with little wiggle room and assuming a move to LCOL
 - a full FI number - our actual goal number

thd7t

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2019, 08:43:08 AM »
I have a lean number where I will feel really optimistic and could potentially FIRE and a FIRE number where I think that variables that I'm not considering adequately will be covered.

brute

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2019, 08:44:55 AM »
Two for me. I've got a number where I wouldn't look for another job if I were suddenly unemployed, but would probably take on some consulting projects. The other one is full FIRE where I wouldn't do anything I didn't believe in the mission of, but I'd still be supporting some causes with my time.

tyd450

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2019, 09:24:09 AM »
Two for me. I've got a number where I wouldn't look for another job if I were suddenly unemployed, but would probably take on some consulting projects. The other one is full FIRE where I wouldn't do anything I didn't believe in the mission of, but I'd still be supporting some causes with my time.

I have a similar plan.  My first is $1M in investments and a paid off house.  If I get to that point and get laid off from my job, I don't think  I will stop working, but I will probably not get another job office/cubicle job in corporate america.  Something more barista/coast FIREesque. 

My real FIRE number (at least at the moment) is $1.5M invested and a paid off house.  At that point I am really going to question staying at my job or any job at all. 

Parizade

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2019, 09:24:20 AM »
I hit FI a couple of years ago, so I suppose that was my first number. RE is only 70 days away so I suppose that is my second number. That's all I need. My FIRE is relatively lean but comfortable and includes winters in Mexico (not negotiable after this year, it's April 12 and we are  still battling winter storms).

fattest_foot

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2019, 09:39:22 AM »
Mine seems a bit different than the rest of yours. It's less about different dollar figures (although they are different) and more about timeline.

  • Full time, retire end of 2021
  • Part time starting end of 2019, retire 2022
  • Part time starting mid 2020, retire 2022

Had a 4th option for part time July 2019, but we won't be making that so it's gone.

They're all ballparks at this point though, so mostly irrelevant. I just did them out of boredom and to dream a little about going part time. We'll see in the next 6 months if both of our employers are open to us going part time.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 09:41:23 AM by fattest_foot »

Valvore

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2019, 09:42:41 AM »
I feel like my number is always changing because my spending hasn't been consistent over the last three years. Its really frustrating because its like "well we could live off of x, but also y, and z is a safer bet, and don't for get about z minus student loan payment, or we could do x if we paid off the house"

My goal number has stayed the same, my original leanish FIRE number. It gives me something to shoot for, but I am constantly reevaluating my FIRE number. Technically I could barista FIRE right now, but I'm such a scaredy cat. Even when I make it to my original FIRE number, I think I'll be afraid to pull the the trigger. Fat Fire seems like a much safer option.

- Barista FIRE (here now)
- Leanish FIRE (always changing because I could cut out things...)
- FIRE (average spending of last three years)
- FAT FIRE (where I feel safest...)

Zikoris

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2019, 10:01:38 AM »
I've only ever had one, which is based on an amount to replicate our current lifestyle. Because the lifestyle we lead now is pretty close to perfect for us. It seems kind of pointless to have a secondary number based on lifestyle I don't want to live. I mean, what use is that? Isn't it pretty detrimental to lock yourself down into a lifestyle you don't want?

CoffeeR

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2019, 10:12:03 AM »
I guess I am strange. My three FIRE numbers are 1) $ in taxable account, 2) $ in retirement accounts, 3) date I can leave MegaU with lifetime health benefits. I hope to hit all three before I retire, but if I were to loose my job today, I would not seek new employment. I will probably FIRE or downshift when I hit #3 since for #1 & #2 I am FI-enough.

Fae

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2019, 12:36:07 PM »
I have three and they all revolve around health care. For background, both sides of my family have a long history of serious health issues developing later in life, eg. dementia, severe osteoporosis, diabetes, stroke, cancer, blood clotting disorders, heart disease, etc. I already have asthma, so insurance costs are a very important part of my FI/RE plans. My different scenarios, from lowest FI/RE number to highest are:

1. Convince husband to move to a country with Universal health care (or get super lucky and have the US become a universal health care country before my FI/RE date), this would cut my FI/RE date by a third
2. Get health care through the Marketplace; Currently we could get it at about 160/month (w/ subsidy) and plan to meet 75% of OOP (11850 of 15800) every year
3. ACA gets repealed, buy stupid expensive individual insurance (~1400/month*) and plan to meet 75% of OOP (11850 of 15800) every year

* Based on when I looked into getting it over a decade ago and adjusting for inflation and adding a spouse

Tyson

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2019, 12:38:59 PM »
I have a FI number (1 million) and a separate full FIRE number (1.5 million).  The full FIRE number allows me to pay off the balance of my mortgage so I can keep my expenses (and thus income needed) low, which in turns allows me to pay very little in taxes. 
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 01:14:55 PM by tyort1 »

fuzzy math

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Re: How many FIRE &quot;numbers&quot; do you have?
« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2019, 12:47:18 PM »
Mine seems a bit different than the rest of yours. It's less about different dollar figures (although they are different) and more about timeline.

  • Full time, retire end of 2021
  • Part time starting end of 2019, retire 2022
  • Part time starting mid 2020, retire 2022

Had a 4th option for part time July 2019, but we won't be making that so it's gone.

They're all ballparks at this point though, so mostly irrelevant. I just did them out of boredom and to dream a little about going part time. We'll see in the next 6 months if both of our employers are open to us going part time.

I feel like my situation is most similar to yours. If I havent hit my goal(ish) by my date, I will have to explore whether I want to barista fire for a couple years. My version of barista fire is either airbnb or substitute teaching...


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Knapptyme

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2019, 01:29:51 PM »
I put there are numerous numbers for me and my family. Since we just had another child and plan to have one more, God-willing, I am flexible with target FIRE numbers. If it were just me and my wife, we would be set. As it is, I already "retired" even though I do make money doing fun, side hustles.

Three reasons for my wife to keep working are health benefits, paid maternity leave, and direct deposit triggered bank bonuses (extra $2000-$3000 annual income). She also happens to enjoy most of what she does.

There's also the number at which we would take a paid teaching gig overseas for fun.

JLee

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2019, 01:32:43 PM »
I have a bare minimum number and then some vague idea of where I'd like to be in order to not have to compromise all the stuff I actually want to do. They're very different.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2019, 02:04:35 PM »
I have two: single FIRE or single with kid FIRE. Either way, I’ll be fine.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2019, 05:55:06 PM »
I have small goals which allow me some flexibility with "numbers" since numbers can go up or go down depending on many things.

Age 34 - get married
Age 36 - pay off 2nd house
Age 38 - supercar, 1st kid
Age 40 - 2nd kid
Age 42 - pay off 3rd house
Age 44 - semi-retire
Age 46 - pay off 4th house and retire

I try to break time down into chunks so I'm not always looking at the big goal 15 years away otherwise it's a long time to go holding your breath.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 05:57:14 PM by Bloop Bloop »

enFuego

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2019, 10:32:01 PM »
I voted one but in reality I have one but I don't know what it is. All I know is once I have enough then I'm done! I have a range for what that number is but not what it will actually be. The upper number is probably 50% above the lower number.

The reason I say I don't know my number is that I can't really nail down our budget yet. I know the lifestyle we are comfortable with I just don't know some of the decisions to be made like where we will live. We are in a HCOL area. Will we keep our house or downsize? If we downsize will we move to a cheaper town or LCOL area? What will our health costs be? I am estimating on the high end but maybe that changes. I am probably being too conservative in my estimated need by MMM standards but that's my risk tolerance. (Took financial risks earlier in my life and I'll never do that again, especially when it'll be late in life to recover.)

What is known somewhat is the timeframe. Won't retire before the kids are out of college. That's six years from now. Or at least until the last payment has been made. Anywhere up to a couple years after that is on the table. That's a long horizon so how much we actually save and how much our investments earn will drive that as well.

I don't think a long term coast is in the plans so I don't see a reason to have that number in play. Part time consulting would be a possibility in my field but I think I'd have a hard time mentally doing that.  Too hard to shift gears all the time and still stay focused/motivated. I feel like I'd rather push through till I hit my number then pull the plug hard and be done. I have plans for hobbies/possible side gigs but do not want to need them to provide money. That's called work and would ruin my enjoyment of them. If they throw off cash then great I'll spend it haha.

spartana

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2019, 11:17:57 AM »
I suppose I had 2. The first one was a lean FIRE just on some savings and investments when I quit my job to do some things I could only do while younger. I could have lived like that I indefinitely without ever working again but it would be tight.  Did that for 8 years from 42 to 50.

 The second is where I'm at now. Sold the house with plans to move to a LCOL area and buy a place with cash,  and added some of the equity to the stash plus started a small gov pension at 50. No real # but my expenses have been very low so most of my added FIRE income goes for fun stuff.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 11:19:58 AM by spartana »

FIRE 20/20

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2019, 11:45:57 AM »
I just have one, but it varies with CAPE.  This is completely unscientific and is basically guesswork, but given high CAPE right now and my personal situation (high pay, good job in a field that's impossible to re-enter after my certifications expire) I have aimed for a 3.3% or lower withdrawal rate.  However, if the markets dropped to where CAPE was below 25 I'd be comfortable with a 4% WDR.  In other words, hypothetically if my number is $1M with the current CAPE with annual spending of $33k (3.3% WDR) then I would be ok if the markets drop and my stache is worth $825k resulting in a 4% WDR to generate $33k annually.  If they dropped even further then I'd be ok with going a bit above 4.0% because I'd feel somewhat confident that the worst had passed and we're likely to see a correction that would get me back to 4.0% or lower before I drained too much of my stache. 

I don't necessarily recommend this approach because I don't think we know enough about what a high CAPE really is due to a lot of factors, including the change to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in 2001.  It's just guesswork on my part but I'm comfortable with it because I think I have enough backup plans built in that if I'm wrong and we do revert to a CAPE of 16 I would be able to figure out ways to handle it - although that significant a drop for the long-term would be painful. 

ender

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2019, 11:48:46 AM »
We had our first kid less than a year ago and probably will have more.

It's impossible to guesstimate what our "number" is at this point until we know more clearly what our situation looks like. But we just keep saving and will end up with that option, hopefully :)

Radagast

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2019, 12:06:48 PM »
I went for the "so many options" one. For a person who likes numbers, I am pretty vague about this. At best, I have about 10 more years of working and saving, so to start with it doesn't even matter what my number is for at least 8 years. Then, I don't even know what my spending will be in the future. I also don't know what my attitudes towards work, money, time, and others will be in 10 years. We plan to have kids whereas now we have none, who knows what that will change? Anything could happen. At some point there will be a coincidence of having enough money for some level or other of RE, along with a strong desire to take life in a different direction. Whatever number and time that happens at will be completely unpredictable to present day me. Fat FIRE, lean FIRE, anything could happen.

I do have one notable number, which is "amount in retirement accounts = amount required to have a traditional retirement assuming 5% real returns if we never save another dollar." We will hit that sometime this year, and from then on we can do whatever we want to survive and enjoy the next 30 years without feeling too much pressure.

Steeze

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2019, 04:08:19 PM »
3 numbers:
-FI with current expenses
-FI with future expenses (1.5x current)
-Coast FI with 5 years part time

Still not 100% on RE ... just want to make increasing my stash more of a hobby than a full time job.

Malcat

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2019, 12:04:01 PM »
Only CoastFI, and even then, it's not really a solid number because we will probably always make more than we need just doing the work we love.

FIREstache

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #26 on: April 14, 2019, 02:36:36 PM »

I don't really have any numbers.  I just plan to keep building my stash up over the next year and retire with whatever I have by living within whatever means I need to when the time comes.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #27 on: April 14, 2019, 02:47:06 PM »
I have 4, and we already passed the first two. We are now in a period of thought about whether we really need to reach the 3rd to finally pull the trigger. I really don’t plan to reach the 4th, but if I’m really enjoying my work and have time to do the other things I want to do, maybe.

Bateaux

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #28 on: April 14, 2019, 03:17:39 PM »
Bottom FIRE number is 2 million in investments and zero debt.  Top FIRE humber is 2.5 million investments and no debt.  We we're debt free and almost 2 million in investments.   We bought our retirement home in Florida and now have 180K debt. We're almost 2.1 million investments, so as soon as we can payoff the mortgage we'll be able to FIRE.  The 2 million number is the floor where anytime in retirement we drop through, I'll be job hunting.  The rollercoaster only goes up past 2 million or FIRE is postponed.

Freedomsaver

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #29 on: April 16, 2019, 01:24:31 AM »
I have 5 numbers but 2 of those are dates and all are with a paid off house. 
-Work current job till the end of 2020 then get a part time job
-Lean fi with 1-2 years off then probably work part time
-Fire number
-Fat Fire number
-Quit the end of 2025 from current job no matter what I have

Mmm_Donuts

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #30 on: April 16, 2019, 05:48:53 AM »
I have three numbers, ranging from most risky to most conservative:

1. lean FIRE, possibility to supplement with PT work (level achieved)
2. full FIRE, assuming future supplement of downsizing the house and/or inheritance (should achieve in the next year or two)
3. full FIRE, liquid assets only, not including possible house sale or inheritance (should achieve by 2023, my current FIRE date)

mizzourah2006

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #31 on: April 16, 2019, 07:01:22 AM »
I have 2.

1. Leanfire, where if shit hit the fan, we stopped vacations and pulled the kids out of daycare we'd be fine.
2. FIRE, where we could maintain our current lifestyle.

I don't have a 3rd because I'm more focused on the FI than the RE at this point anyway and I doubt I'd pull the plug when we hit our FI(RE) because our kids will likely be in middle school and at this point both my wife and I kind of enjoy our jobs.

GuitarStv

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #32 on: April 16, 2019, 08:16:06 AM »
I don't need more than enough, and less than enough won't quite cut it.

So one number only - enough.

PDXTabs

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #33 on: April 16, 2019, 08:23:02 AM »
Three:

  • The number that I want, because I'm greedy and right now I have a lot of childcare expenses.
  • The number I will be able to live on when my kids are out of the house and I've helped with a few years of college.
  • The middle number, between the other two.

Also, once I'm FI I might keep working some contracts to buy real estate (I have none now) for purely selfish reasons. But I won't need to work, so we'll see.

fatcow240

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #34 on: April 16, 2019, 08:25:59 AM »
Bare bones < my number < SO number

SansSkill

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #35 on: April 16, 2019, 09:04:37 AM »
I've had three.
The first one was covered existing; roof, food, taxes and basic utilities.
The second one covered an average month; more and better utilities, better food.
The third one was about 20% more then an average month; this adds more security as well as allow me to splurge on occasion and more easily catch one off higher payments.

I say 'had' because I stopped having numbers at all, I realized all my numbers were way too dependant on housing costs, house related maintenance and taxes, and utilities. Neither my student housing nor my parents place could give accurate estimations as they were more then likely too cheap and too expensive respectively. So I figured I'll ditch all numbers until I get my own place, which will probably take at least three more years, if not five to ten.

GoHokies

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #36 on: April 16, 2019, 09:54:04 AM »
Two. 

One would be a "CoastFIRE" number. This number would allow me quit my job I am doing today to scale back to something part time. I've always envisioned this something I could work for 25-30 hours per week and earn about $1.5k-$2k per month.  I already have this number today, but continue to work my higher earning/higher stress job and use the CoastFIRE plan as a backup if I were to lose my job or hate my job too much.

The 2nd would just be the number I would feel comfortable retiring and never having to work again. I am about halfway to this number. 

Never been someone to separate out "bare bones" and some sort of "comfortable" or "excess" FIRE number. I either want to fully embrace FIRE and have enough $ to never have to worry about working again and meet all my expense needs, or do some sort of CoastFIRE plan that includes part time work. 


Maenad

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #37 on: April 16, 2019, 12:25:50 PM »
I have two - one is FI based on our projected spending, including health insurance, increased traveling, etc. The second is "RE", it's the FI number plus saving for a few big one-time projects/expenses (e.g replacing the driveway) and the number at which we'll actually retire.

MonkeyJenga

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #38 on: April 16, 2019, 01:01:32 PM »
1. "Won't die" FIRE - I can couchsurf or move somewhere super cheap, eat a very basic diet, and have zero luxuries, no gym, no air travel, no restaurants. Plan on getting another job if the ACA goes away and I need costly healthcare.

2. LeanFIRE - I can live with roommates in MCOL cities, take public transit, join a gym, take some vacations, and leave a buffer for healthcare expenses. Might need to move between cities if rent gets too costly in one place. Again ACA disbanding would be the main risk.

3. FIRE - Basically the same as LeanFIRE but I can live with rooomates in a HCOL, or in nicer places in MCOL, and spend a bit more on... hm. I don't know, maybe a nicer laptop, travel, and charity.

4. CrazyFIRE - I can live almost anywhere, have a big buffer for expected short-term and old age health care expenses, and increase my travel and charity spend.

I'm doing a combination Lean/Coast FIRE, where I plan on working seasonally for causes I care about, but I don't need the money in the short-term. I'll probably get to #3, but unlikely I'll hit #4. Healthcare is the biggest unknown, and any buffer I earn will likely be saved, not spent, for that reason.

GoingToMaine

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #39 on: April 16, 2019, 01:47:29 PM »
I have three.  They're all fairly close together in the grand scheme of things, but I keep them mostly for milestone purposes.

First I have the "we won't starve" number.  House, food, clothing, basic utilities, cheap transportation, and the most basic of insurances.  We would have no fun budget and maybe a flip phone to share.  We'd be alive but it wouldn't be much fun.  It's free activities or nothing.  I'd be looking for a part time job or something, both for entertainment and to be able to afford some sort of fun.  We're actually at this number as of last week (yay!).

Next is the "it would work" number.  All of "we won't starve" plus smartphones and a small fun budget.  We're 89% of the way to this one.  Once we hit this, I'll consider us in the clear.

Finally, there's the "all the way" number.  It adds a very nice fun budget, internet plus a streaming service or two, more frequent ski/hiking/kayaking equipment upgrades and passes, and some help for when we're older and would struggle to do the work ourselves (like snow removal).  Plus there's some extra slack in the budget in case any of our estimates are wrong.  We're 72% of the way to this number.

Hitting the "we won't starve" number was a morale booster because I know that every penny saved from now on goes toward lifestyle improvement.  The basic needs are taken care of, so it's all gravy.  Want to have ski passes every year?  Want to always have a shiny, new-ish kayak?  Want a night at the pub once a month?  How about once a week?  Whatever I decide I want I can save for.

HeadedWest2029

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #40 on: April 16, 2019, 02:13:25 PM »
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security
My safest FIRE number would be 3.5% SWR with no expectations of social security, inheritance, future consulting income, basic side-hustle like CC churning, cutting discretionary during a downturn, selling other assets that don't generate income.  In all likelihood some or most of these should provide extra layers of safety, but I think my optimism is partially offset by the high CAPE, US outlier stock market performance relative to other markets, and covering future educational and medical expenses.

However, if I put in my current stash and factor in something like social security I can get 100% success in cfiresim now so I consider myself FI, just not RE until I reach my safe FIRE number.  Great thread.  I find the "number" to be very inexact

ADDITION: I find hitting FI to be a mixed bag honestly.  Relief that you have some assurance of being OK should you lose your job, but it can be a mental strain to be in a gray area between FI numbers and have the constant thought running thru your head of "I could quit right now" every time you experience some work BS
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 02:17:04 PM by HeadedWest2029 »

GoingToMaine

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #41 on: April 16, 2019, 02:46:35 PM »
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security
I don't bother because I'm not going to depend on something I don't already have in hand.  So I factor on there being no social security.  If I happen to get social security eventually, that becomes fun money.

HeadedWest2029

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #42 on: April 16, 2019, 02:57:27 PM »
Do you also
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security
I don't bother because I'm not going to depend on something I don't already have in hand.  So I factor on there being no social security.  If I happen to get social security eventually, that becomes fun money.
yeah, but that's the fun in having multiple numbers.  I get what you're saying, but none of this is in hand really.  Like, I don't consider future US equity returns to necessarily have the same range of returns in the next 100 years.  It could be exceptional US equity returns are largely due to an emerging dynamic economy benefiting from 2 world wars being fought on foreign soil.  Some people don't want to factor in social security, but DO factor in medicare keeping health expenses low, which seems like an arbitrary assumption.

Assumptions abound when calculating these sort of things

MonkeyJenga

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #43 on: April 16, 2019, 02:59:06 PM »
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security

I'm in my early 30's, Social Security is so far down the line that it's irrelevant. I do expect to get something, even if it's not 100% benefits. By the time I'm eligible, though, I'll either have enough or will have gone back to work decades earlier, depending on the market and healthcare costs.

GoingToMaine

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #44 on: April 16, 2019, 03:01:38 PM »
Do you also
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security
I don't bother because I'm not going to depend on something I don't already have in hand.  So I factor on there being no social security.  If I happen to get social security eventually, that becomes fun money.
yeah, but that's the fun in having multiple numbers.
Oh totally.  But I think it'll be even more fun to get an unexpected $17k (or whatever) raise.  :)

enFuego

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #45 on: April 16, 2019, 03:22:26 PM »
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security

That's kind of where I started when I first tried to figure out my target mostly for what-if scenarios... but I've always assumed I can't rely on social security so when/if it actually comes through I'll have way more money than I need and be asking why I didn't retire sooner.  Perhaps when I get closer to my number and get more anxious to stop working I'll magically find a second lower number that assumes social security.

spartana

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #46 on: April 16, 2019, 03:36:11 PM »
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security

I'm in my early 30's, Social Security is so far down the line that it's irrelevant. I do expect to get something, even if it's not 100% benefits. By the time I'm eligible, though, I'll either have enough or will have gone back to work decades earlier, depending on the market and healthcare costs.
And if you are an early, or very early, retiree you may not pay anything into SS for 30 or 40 years. The amount you may get once older will be tiny. But hey, additional beer money is always a good thing! I haven't paid into SS since I was 30, plus I'm subject to the WEP,  so no reason to add it in to a FIRE number.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 03:38:39 PM by spartana »

MonkeyJenga

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #47 on: April 16, 2019, 04:41:06 PM »
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security

I'm in my early 30's, Social Security is so far down the line that it's irrelevant. I do expect to get something, even if it's not 100% benefits. By the time I'm eligible, though, I'll either have enough or will have gone back to work decades earlier, depending on the market and healthcare costs.
And if you are an early, or very early, retiree (or like me haven't paid into SS since age 30) you may not pay anything into SS for 30 or 40 years. The amount you may get will be tiny. But hey, additional beer money is always a good thing!

For me it would be hot chocolate money, but same deal. :P

ender

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #48 on: April 16, 2019, 04:44:59 PM »
And if you are an early, or very early, retiree you may not pay anything into SS for 30 or 40 years. The amount you may get once older will be tiny. But hey, additional beer money is always a good thing! I haven't paid into SS since I was 30, plus I'm subject to the WEP,  so no reason to add it in to a FIRE number.

Well, SS is pretty progressive in terms of how much you get back relative to paying into it, so for folks here who are non-military you still will get a decent percentage of what you'd get working a full career when FIRE'ing.

spartana

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Re: How many FIRE "numbers" do you have?
« Reply #49 on: April 17, 2019, 02:20:02 AM »
Kinda surprised no one else has FIRE numbers based on social security / no social security / 25% shortfall in social security

I'm in my early 30's, Social Security is so far down the line that it's irrelevant. I do expect to get something, even if it's not 100% benefits. By the time I'm eligible, though, I'll either have enough or will have gone back to work decades earlier, depending on the market and healthcare costs.
And if you are an early, or very early, retiree (or like me haven't paid into SS since age 30) you may not pay anything into SS for 30 or 40 years. The amount you may get will be tiny. But hey, additional beer money is always a good thing!

For me it would be hot chocolate money, but same deal. :P
It's monthly cake money 'cause...cake!

@ender I'm curious about the approx amount a lower income person who didn't pay much into SS would get if they had left employment at 30 and didn't pay into it again. I can't imagine it would be very much at 67. There are a few around here who didn't have high salaries but retired at 30 or earlier and use real estate or some other income for FIRE. I contributed approx 12 years into SS at a low income (very low by today's standards) and think a full benefit at 67 would be around $700/month (not counting the Windfall Elimination Provision reduction I'd be subject to). I guess that would be high for only contributing 12 low income years plus teenager jobs.