How long will it take the US to recover from the economic impact of Covid-19?

[Michael in ABQ]

4-5 years is my guess. 1-2 years until there's either a vaccine or we reach some sort of equilibrium with herd immunity. Then another 3-4 years to actually recover the lost jobs and GDP.

However, there are going to be some fundamental shifts. A lot of colleges are going to go out of business, especially private ones without a large endowment. Online schools are going to become more widely accepted as a substitute. Once that happens the in-person experience is going to be a much harder sell. Regular college as we know it will still exist, but I predict a substantial number of students will choose a degree that is all or mostly online. We already see this with a lot of professional and military education. Some people go to the resident 5-month course, others spend 150 hours on online classes with a couple of weeks of more intensive in-person classes. A lot of office jobs are going to switch to 75-100% remote. Grocery delivery and ecommerce is going to continue to grow. Delivery via drone will start to take off which will cause some creative destruction. Some delivery drivers will lose their jobs but new jobs will be created to build, maintain, and program/operate those drones. Other industries we can't think of will start and grow. Historically you get some companies that do very well starting during a recession.

[Imma]

I also believe remote work will be here to stay. We've found out now that many office jobs can perfectly be done remotely. And nearly everyone I speak seems to prefer work from home over early mornings and long commutes. Of course some in person contact is always going to remain important, but for an employer it will be much cheaper to get rid of a lot of office space and instead rent a much smaller place with some meeting and coworking spaces. Especially when the economy takes a hit and profit declines, it will be attractive for companies to significantly lower their costs by getting rid of half their floorspace. This has been happening for a long time - I don't think we ever reached pre-2008 levels of office space.

[Tyler durden]

I also believe remote work will be here to stay. We've found out now that many office jobs can perfectly be done remotely. And nearly everyone I speak seems to prefer work from home over early mornings and long commutes. Of course some in person contact is always going to remain important, but for an employer it will be much cheaper to get rid of a lot of office space and instead rent a much smaller place with some meeting and coworking spaces. Especially when the economy takes a hit and profit declines, it will be attractive for companies to significantly lower their costs by getting rid of half their floorspace. This has been happening for a long time - I don't think we ever reached pre-2008 levels of office space.

Not sure I agree with this idea of less office space. It’s a logical argument but I could see companies wanting more office space as well to, create space. Employees won’t tolerate jamming themselves into tight quarters again. People may want / need the extra space to spread out.

Still to early to tell I’d say.

[Michael in ABQ]

I also believe remote work will be here to stay. We've found out now that many office jobs can perfectly be done remotely. And nearly everyone I speak seems to prefer work from home over early mornings and long commutes. Of course some in person contact is always going to remain important, but for an employer it will be much cheaper to get rid of a lot of office space and instead rent a much smaller place with some meeting and coworking spaces. Especially when the economy takes a hit and profit declines, it will be attractive for companies to significantly lower their costs by getting rid of half their floorspace. This has been happening for a long time - I don't think we ever reached pre-2008 levels of office space.

I used to be in commercial real estate and the office demand in the Albuquerque market (which was one of the worst-performing office markets in the country) did not reach the previous peak until just recently. Part of that was a loss of office-using jobs, part of that was a steady trend towards less space per person. Call centers might be 100 SF per person or less while a law firm might be at 300+ SF per person due to lots of relatively large private offices.  Most offices with a mix of private offices and open office/cubicles were around 200-250 square feet per person. Now that includes hallways, break rooms, conference rooms, a portion of shared elevator lobbies or bathrooms on that floor, etc.

I work for the Air Force now and there are specific standards for office space based on your rank/civilian grade and your position. As a mid-level supervisor I am allocated 100 SF for my office, even though my actual office is 240 SF. The base commander is only allocated 300 SF and pretty much anyone lower ranking than him, even other officers of the same rank, are only allocated 200 SF for a private office. The typical office worker is allocated 36 square feet, i.e. a 6'x6' cube. There are buildings with cube farms holding 100+ people in an area. Now that's just for your actual work space. It doesn't include area for circulation among cubes or hallways, bathrooms, etc. There are also specific guidelines for how much area to allocate for conference rooms or training rooms as well, depending on how many people will be utilizing it. Packing 100 people in cubes in 20-30,000 square feet is probably not going to work anymore. Especially when you see how easily it can spread in an office setting.

Another great example is the outbreak in a call center (see below). A single infected employee came to work on the 11th floor of a building. That floor had 216 employees. Over the period of a week, 94 of those people became infected (43.5%: the blue chairs). 92 of those 94 people became sick (only 2 remained asymptomatic).

source: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them and original source: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

[Cranky]

I also believe remote work will be here to stay. We've found out now that many office jobs can perfectly be done remotely. And nearly everyone I speak seems to prefer work from home over early mornings and long commutes. Of course some in person contact is always going to remain important, but for an employer it will be much cheaper to get rid of a lot of office space and instead rent a much smaller place with some meeting and coworking spaces. Especially when the economy takes a hit and profit declines, it will be attractive for companies to significantly lower their costs by getting rid of half their floorspace. This has been happening for a long time - I don't think we ever reached pre-2008 levels of office space.

Not sure I agree with this idea of less office space. It’s a logical argument but I could see companies wanting more office space as well to, create space. Employees won’t tolerate jamming themselves into tight quarters again. People may want / need the extra space to spread out.

Still to early to tell I’d say.

There was an article in the NYT last week about the long term impact on commercial real estate there. A number of big companies have already said they don’t plan to bring most of their people back to the office.

[dcheesi]

Granted none of us were around during the great depression, I think it would be comparing apples to oranges.  TGD was an economy that was broken and just...broke.  COVID has more or less "stunned" our economy for lack of a better term.  I would think we are much better suited to recover from this.  It will take many months, or years though in my opinion.  But, not decades.

In regards to our Federal leadership...it's pretty bad all around.  Your local officials will have a much bigger impact on how your area deals with the virus.

My father lived through it though and so did his brother, who just died last week.  Maybe there are a few 92+ year olds on here...

My dad's 93, though he grew up on a farm on the East coast (safely out of Dust Bowl territory), so I think WWII actually had a greater impact on him.

[YttriumNitrate]

The answer to "how long will it take the US to recover from the economic impact of Covid-19?" depends greatly on the definition of recover. If recover means getting back to 3.5% unemployment like in Feb. 2020, it's going to be a while, but getting back to 6% unemployment will be much much faster.

[PJC74]

my in laws own a restaurant that did very well before the pandemic. They are doing even better now.

Normal night was 200-400 dinners, now they are doing 500+ in 4 hours and no need to have linens cleaned, glasses washed, heat, AC, etc etc

[dandarc]

my in laws own a restaurant that did very well before the pandemic. They are doing even better now.

Normal night was 200-400 dinners, now they are doing 500+ in 4 hours and no need to have linens cleaned, glasses washed, heat, AC, etc etc

My sister is a shift manager at a B-Dubs. Same thing - "apparently people got the stimulus checks and are spending it all on chicken wings". Granted, no alcohol sales off-sets increases in selling food, but far from a "put us out of business" situation.

[PJC74]

in Mass they can sell alcohol to go, too. They can't make the Sangria fast enough!

[Bloop Bloop]

The answer to "how long will it take the US to recover from the economic impact of Covid-19?" depends greatly on the definition of recover. If recover means getting back to 3.5% unemployment like in Feb. 2020, it's going to be a while, but getting back to 6% unemployment will be much much faster.

Isn't 3.5% unemployment going to cause unwarranted inflation? I thought the comfortable band was around 5%.

[dandarc]

Unemployment was under 5% since late 2015 / early 2016 in the United states, and has been pretty much continuously declining from there. Inflation has been more variable, but between 0.75 and 3% that whole time. So I'd say "unemployment below 5% causes unwarranted inflation" to be far from proven in recent US history.

[Melisande]

I really just don’t think the current economic downswing will be anywhere near as bad as the Great Depression, but then again, back in 2002, I was sure we wouldn’t go to war with Iraq and back in 2016, I was sure Trump wouldn’t be elected. So ...

[Kyle Schuant]

Is it when, or is it if?


Consider your answer carefully. Show your workings.

[MrThatsDifferent]

I guess, here’s some thinking: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-expect-a-quick-recovery-our-survey-of-economists-says-it-will-likely-take-years/

[talltexan]

Granted none of us were around during the great depression, I think it would be comparing apples to oranges.  TGD was an economy that was broken and just...broke.  COVID has more or less "stunned" our economy for lack of a better term.  I would think we are much better suited to recover from this.  It will take many months, or years though in my opinion.  But, not decades.

In regards to our Federal leadership...it's pretty bad all around.  Your local officials will have a much bigger impact on how your area deals with the virus.

And one lesson of the Great Recession is that it isn't so easy to stimulate our way out of an economic crisis.

@Cranky , can you tell us a little more about how you came to believe this?

Sure, the federal government passed TARP and ARRA, totaling $1,600 billion. (those seem very small compared to what has been passed in spring 2020) But the decrease in spending at the state levels from 2009-2011 offset this such that there was little effective stimulus, and the Republican majority in the House effectively foreclosed any spending increase and led to the sequester, which was a sharp decrease in spending. It feels like a Republican Senate majority has been much more willing to stimulate an economy when a Republican President is trying to win re-election than when a Democratic President is trying for that.

[slappy]

I really just don’t think the current economic downswing will be anywhere near as bad as the Great Depression, but then again, back in 2002, I was sure we wouldn’t go to war with Iraq and back in 2016, I was sure Trump wouldn’t be elected. So ...

I was just listening to a podcast this morning where the guest was explaining that both Buffet and Dalio are basically calling for/saying we are in a Depression.

[js82]

Is it when, or is it if?


Consider your answer carefully. Show your workings.

That depends on how you define "recover".

If recovery is defined as unemployment returning to pre-pandemic levels, my best-guess answer is "not within my lifetime, likely not ever".  We were at historically low levels of unemployment pre-COVID, and when you combine that with the continuing rise of automation I expect that the "new normal" for unemployment will be higher.  I don't see <4% unemployment being realistic a decade from now, with that much additional time for AI/automation to render various forms of human labor obsolete.

If recovery is defined as returning to the same level of GDP I'd give it 2-4 years.  I'm guessing we'll still have 6-8% unemployment in that time frame, but productivity growth will have the GDP at a similar point despite the higher unemployment.

Some sectors(retail) will be permanently scarred by this, no matter what happens.

[Body Surfer]

Having a business oriented President like we currently have will help speed along the recovery. I am way more concerned if there is a change at the executive branch this November.

[Tyler durden]

Having a business oriented President like we currently have will help speed along the recovery. I am way more concerned if there is a change at the executive branch this November.

Biden might tinker around the edges a bit with personal and corporate taxes. Don’t see much more than that happening if the senate stays Republican. That wouldn’t be so bad. Not great to increase taxes in a recession but probably not ruinous.

He could plant the seed of a bigger issue though. If he opens the borders up for millions of low/no skilled labor at the same time we already have high unemployment that would be a nightmare for anyone in the trades or hospitality industries for a long time coming.

[marty998]

Having a business oriented President like we currently have will help speed along the recovery. I am way more concerned if there is a change at the executive branch this November.

Biden might tinker around the edges a bit with personal and corporate taxes. Don’t see much more than that happening if the senate stays Republican. That wouldn’t be so bad. Not great to increase taxes in a recession but probably not ruinous.

He could plant the seed of a bigger issue though. If he opens the borders up for millions of low/no skilled labor at the same time we already have high unemployment that would be a nightmare for anyone in the trades or hospitality industries for a long time coming.

I thought you republican types love cheap labor? ;)

More people generally means more demand for housing, which is a huge boost for all trades - construction workers, architects, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, tilers.... all of which are generally small businesses. All those tradies need a place to go to lunch too. The local diners will do well out of it.

And when people buy or rent a new place what happens? They fill it out with furniture and fittings.

An influx of people is generally a good thing for the economy.

[MrThatsDifferent]

Having a business oriented President like we currently have will help speed along the recovery. I am way more concerned if there is a change at the executive branch this November.

Ah yes, the business minded president with multiple bankruptcies. The president whose business college was closed for being fraudulent. The president whose cancer charity for children was closed for misappropriation of funds. The president who diverted campaign money to pay off his mistresses.

Yeah, let mister this a democratic hoax drink some bleach and stand in the sun guide us through a recovery.

[Tyler durden]

Having a business oriented President like we currently have will help speed along the recovery. I am way more concerned if there is a change at the executive branch this November.

Biden might tinker around the edges a bit with personal and corporate taxes. Don’t see much more than that happening if the senate stays Republican. That wouldn’t be so bad. Not great to increase taxes in a recession but probably not ruinous.

He could plant the seed of a bigger issue though. If he opens the borders up for millions of low/no skilled labor at the same time we already have high unemployment that would be a nightmare for anyone in the trades or hospitality industries for a long time coming.

I thought you republican types love cheap labor? ;)

More people generally means more demand for housing, which is a huge boost for all trades - construction workers, architects, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, tilers.... all of which are generally small businesses. All those tradies need a place to go to lunch too. The local diners will do well out of it.

And when people buy or rent a new place what happens? They fill it out with furniture and fittings.

An influx of people is generally a good thing for the economy.

I don’t want to derail this into an immigration debate that’s probably best for another thread. Though i will never be convinced that flooding our country with unskilled labor and people who have no assets And little income potential are a net positive in the short term.  One parent with low income and a couple kids is going to suck up more resources from the kids school and ER visits than they will ever add in taxes paid or money pumped into the economy. Maybe long term those Immigrants contribute on the net but short term they are an immediate drain or resources. High unemployment should not be combined with huge influx of unskilled labor.

Not sure what Biden would do. Is he an open borders / decriminalize entry kind of guy? I’ll have to go do some research on that.

[talltexan]

@Tyler durden , it's clear that you believe Trump is more business friendly than Biden. But his "social media" executive order seems to have legitimately targeted certain businesses. Can you walk us through your reasoning that the set of businesses he favors will gain more employees than the rest will lose?

[Tyler durden]

@Tyler durden , it's clear that you believe Trump is more business friendly than Biden. But his "social media" executive order seems to have legitimately targeted certain businesses. Can you walk us through your reasoning that the set of businesses he favors will gain more employees than the rest will lose?

Your putting words in my mouth big Tex. Not sure I said Trump is better for businesses. I just take each idea/policy as they come.

Is his new regulation by executive order going to cost jobs? That is your question right ? I really don’t know. What business is he favoring ? Do you mean something in the same executive order or business he favors more generally?

I haven’t looked all that closely at the new executive order so won’t comment until I study it more. That’s one me to do the research first though.

[Buffaloski Boris]

I’ve been thinking more about this and looked at the chicken innards and consulted the astrological signs and I’m of the view that we need to decide who we’re talking about here when we talk about recovery. In short, IF you recover depends on where you stand. Are you a worker, a producer, or a rent seeker? If you’re a rent seeker you’re probably going to do fine. Uncle Jerome has your back. Markets are doing ok and will probably do better. Landlords? Not so much.

If you’re a producer, it depends what sort of business you run. It’ll be tough but if you have adequate liquidity you’ll probably be back in a few years.

If you’re a worker, you’re probably screwed unless you’re close to retirement.  Some highly technical professions that require onsite performance will be OK. Outside of that, we’re going to see a lot of jobs go away. Not directly due to COVID so much although we’ll see some of that. What I think is the big unwritten story here is the impact of WFH on employment . WFH is great, huh? You don’t have to commute. Well, not really. If you’re in a job that can be done from 20 miles away, what’s to prevent it from being done from 6000 miles away for 1/4 the cost or less? We’ve seen a lot of manufacturing jobs leave to seek lower labor costs. What does it cost an employer to outsource office and professional jobs in a WFH environment other than a zoom connection?

[Michael in ABQ]

I’ve been thinking more about this and looked at the chicken innards and consulted the astrological signs and I’m of the view that we need to decide who we’re talking about here when we talk about recovery. In short, IF you recover depends on where you stand. Are you a worker, a producer, or a rent seeker? If you’re a rent seeker you’re probably going to do fine. Uncle Jerome has your back. Markets are doing ok and will probably do better. Landlords? Not so much.

If you’re a producer, it depends what sort of business you run. It’ll be tough but if you have adequate liquidity you’ll probably be back in a few years.

If you’re a worker, you’re probably screwed unless you’re close to retirement.  Some highly technical professions that require onsite performance will be OK. Outside of that, we’re going to see a lot of jobs go away. Not directly due to COVID so much although we’ll see some of that. What I think is the big unwritten story here is the impact of WFH on employment . WFH is great, huh? You don’t have to commute. Well, not really. If you’re in a job that can be done from 20 miles away, what’s to prevent it from being done from 6000 miles away for 1/4 the cost or less? We’ve seen a lot of manufacturing jobs leave to seek lower labor costs. What does it cost an employer to outsource office and professional jobs in a WFH environment other than a zoom connection?

I'm not sure we'll see a wholesale outsourcing of many jobs that have proven possible to be done from home. But I think we'll see a lot of companies reevaluate that office in Downtown Seattle or San Francisco or New York. You might have to pay $100k for a mid-level skilled worker in one of those cities. That same employee working from home in Missouri would probably be thrilled to earn $70k given the lower cost of living (and not having to commute). So now you're saving on personnel, generally the largest cost, and you're not paying for downtown office rents - or much lower rent as more employees are remote.

The reason companies locate in big cities is because that's where the talent is. The more specialized the talent, the less likely you are to find it in a smaller city. If you need someone with 10+ years creating sub-prime mortgage bonds, you're going to find them in New York City, not Lexington, KY. But if you're expanding your hiring pool to the whole US you may find someone with those skills who lives in a LCOL area and will accept a lower salary.

[mm1970]

Having a business oriented President like we currently have will help speed along the recovery. I am way more concerned if there is a change at the executive branch this November.

Biden might tinker around the edges a bit with personal and corporate taxes. Don’t see much more than that happening if the senate stays Republican. That wouldn’t be so bad. Not great to increase taxes in a recession but probably not ruinous.

He could plant the seed of a bigger issue though. If he opens the borders up for millions of low/no skilled labor at the same time we already have high unemployment that would be a nightmare for anyone in the trades or hospitality industries for a long time coming.

I thought you republican types love cheap labor? ;)

More people generally means more demand for housing, which is a huge boost for all trades - construction workers, architects, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, tilers.... all of which are generally small businesses. All those tradies need a place to go to lunch too. The local diners will do well out of it.

And when people buy or rent a new place what happens? They fill it out with furniture and fittings.

An influx of people is generally a good thing for the economy.

I don’t want to derail this into an immigration debate that’s probably best for another thread. Though i will never be convinced that flooding our country with unskilled labor and people who have no assets And little income potential are a net positive in the short term.  One parent with low income and a couple kids is going to suck up more resources from the kids school and ER visits than they will ever add in taxes paid or money pumped into the economy. Maybe long term those Immigrants contribute on the net but short term they are an immediate drain or resources. High unemployment should not be combined with huge influx of unskilled labor.

Not sure what Biden would do. Is he an open borders / decriminalize entry kind of guy? I’ll have to go do some research on that.

You are ignoring a few aspects of the immigration debate.

You ignore the money that comes into the economy by way of cheap labor.  That broccoli on your plate, those strawberries.  They are cheap for a reason.

You also ignore the income that those children generate as adults.

[Telecaster]

Yes, in hindsight, travel from Europe should have been shut down earlier, but even in March people were pissed about it.  January, when Trump was shutting down travel and quarantining travelers from the only known hotspot at the time, the democrats were calling it a manufactured crisis to distract from impeachment. 

I missed this.  Who said that? 

[Telecaster]

On the other hand Biden's politics have gotten in the way a little right? He was on message hard flagging the racist card on trump for daring to stop some travel from China.

This is not true.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/27/donald-trump/fact-checking-whether-biden-called-trump-xenophobi/

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trump-biden-spin-china-travel-restrictions/

Trump's response to this issue has been objectively terrible.   He and his top advisors have told an enormous number of lies and spread vast amounts of misinformation and otherwise downplayed, dismissed the problem, and failed to express a sense of urgency.    A recurring lie is that the US "went early" to lock down travel.   Many other countries had already done so before the US.   Remember just a few days before the travel Trump said "everything was under control' and he was not concerned at all about COVID.  About the same time at a rally, Trump promised "we will have a very good ending."  In early February at a rally Trump claimed without evidence "Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”  He repeated a version of this statement later as well.    A few days later he said "We have it very much under control in this country."   

By the end February, Nancy Messonier said the CDC was preparing for a pandemic.  Trump threatens to fire her.   The next day Trump puts Mike Pence in charge of the COVID task force.  An odd choice, you'd think a public health professional would be running things.  The day after that Trump says “It’s going to disappear. One day—it’s like a miracle—it will disappear.”    About this time Larry Kudlow says for the second time that "we have this locked down."   Shortly after, Trump pressed US pharma executives to say they would have a vaccine soon.  They all declined to give this assurance. Trump however stated a vaccine will be ready "relatively soon."  A day after Mike Pence says there is a test kit shortage, Trump says at the CDC “Anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful.”   That statement is still not true.    On March 13, Trump declares a statement of emergency.  But many jurisdictions have already done so.  Washington State for example, had done so two weeks previously.  Trump again is late. 

I mention all that to point out his lack of sense of urgency.  But he's focused on several areas of misinformation that are troubling to me.  One is his focus on miracle cures.  He's flogged hydroxychloroquine as a "game changer" despite there being no real evidence it works.   As late as last week, his press secretary was still promoting it.  Dr. Rick Bright was reassigned at HHS because, according to Bright, he wasn't pushing enough money towards hydroxychloroquine.  Recently Trump announced "Operation Warp Speed" to find a vaccine.  Why wasn't Operation Warp Speed started in February or March?  Strangely, Trump also claimed they had a "final vaccine."  This is objectively not true.  Then his bizarre statements about light and disinfectants.

Similarly, he and his administration have wildly oversold and under delivered on testing.   I do not feel this pattern of misinformation and distraction is helpful or productive.

[Tyler durden]

Telecaster - I read the links thanks.

In one it states Biden called Trump xenophobic the same day Trump called for the travel ban. I mean it seems one has to really go out of their way to believe Biden wasn’t talking about the travel ban being xenophobic. All coincidence...I’m just not buying that. Sounds like malarkey ;)

[Michael in ABQ]

On the other hand Biden's politics have gotten in the way a little right? He was on message hard flagging the racist card on trump for daring to stop some travel from China.

This is not true.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/27/donald-trump/fact-checking-whether-biden-called-trump-xenophobi/

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trump-biden-spin-china-travel-restrictions/

Trump's response to this issue has been objectively terrible.   He and his top advisors have told an enormous number of lies and spread vast amounts of misinformation and otherwise downplayed, dismissed the problem, and failed to express a sense of urgency.    A recurring lie is that the US "went early" to lock down travel.   Many other countries had already done so before the US.   Remember just a few days before the travel Trump said "everything was under control' and he was not concerned at all about COVID.  About the same time at a rally, Trump promised "we will have a very good ending."  In early February at a rally Trump claimed without evidence "Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”  He repeated a version of this statement later as well.    A few days later he said "We have it very much under control in this country."   

https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel-restrictions-china-due-covid-19 This page lists all of the countries that shut down travel from China in some form or another. Virtually all of it occurred around the same time as the US did on February 2nd. 90% of these countries did so between January 31st and February 3rd. However, conspicuously absent from this list are countries like Canada, the UK, and virtually all of Europe. Italy acted on January 31st but France, Germany, and Spain never shut things down. Granted, probably not a lot of travel from China to Iceland.

New Zealand and Australia both acted on February 1st but Malaysia waited until February 9th and Indonesia isn't even on the list. South Korea acted on February 4th but only for people from Hubei province.

So yes, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands acted faster than the US, but many countries never acted.

[Imma]

If you’re a worker, you’re probably screwed unless you’re close to retirement.  Some highly technical professions that require onsite performance will be OK. Outside of that, we’re going to see a lot of jobs go away. Not directly due to COVID so much although we’ll see some of that. What I think is the big unwritten story here is the impact of WFH on employment . WFH is great, huh? You don’t have to commute. Well, not really. If you’re in a job that can be done from 20 miles away, what’s to prevent it from being done from 6000 miles away for 1/4 the cost or less? We’ve seen a lot of manufacturing jobs leave to seek lower labor costs. What does it cost an employer to outsource office and professional jobs in a WFH environment other than a zoom connection?

Well, good luck to my employer finding an employee in a lower-wage country who has in-depth knowledge of my country's tax and labour law and speaks our language, HQ's language and English.

I'm not saying most jobs could never be outsourced at all but as a highly educated specialist I'm not super worried. My company has recently decided to get rid of 80% of HQ though. Turned out most decisions could better be taken at the country level where people know most about their specific situation, who would have thought? A few years back we tried to move all the admin work to a lower wage country, but that project ended in disaster even though the people they hired there had good degrees and spoke English. It was just too complicated.

[bigblock440]

Yes, in hindsight, travel from Europe should have been shut down earlier, but even in March people were pissed about it.  January, when Trump was shutting down travel and quarantining travelers from the only known hotspot at the time, the democrats were calling it a manufactured crisis to distract from impeachment. 

I missed this.  Who said that?

Can't seem to find it, looks like I'm possibly conflating a handful of Democrats' responses with the media, and throwing in their comments about the NO BAN act that they introduced.  Aside from Biden and two others(Rep. Ami Bera and  Rep. Eliot L. Engel), I couldn't find anything concrete from January/early February that specifically referenced the travel restrictions from China, but I could swear I heard/read comments of the sort.  Maybe something from one of the debates.

"The initial thought from the Dems, I think," a GOP Senate aide told Politico, "is that we were trying to distract from impeachment."

[sixwings]

Retail is in trouble, people have been forced to do online shopping and many aren't going to go back to in person shopping now. Expect Amazon to gain a lot more market share. Traditional brick and mortar retail will never recover and this will accelerate the decline. Which is sad for a lot of the mom and pop shops.