Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675550 times)

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4100 on: October 18, 2020, 02:59:57 AM »
Even the HCW are restricted in how much time they can spend with you, and the precious few moments you will have that other human near you they're essentially in a space suit. 
Not in Victoria! Not even an N95 fit-tested mask.

Why yes, we did have a lot of healthcare worker infections, why do you ask?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4101 on: October 18, 2020, 05:36:04 AM »
@Kyle Schuant we don’t have fit tested N95s either and haven’t for a long time.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4102 on: October 18, 2020, 05:37:53 AM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4103 on: October 18, 2020, 07:43:50 AM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

Seconded.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4104 on: October 18, 2020, 12:44:34 PM »
The following can both be true;

-2.8 million Americans die a year and we don’t give it much thought
-excess mortality for 25 straight weeks and counting is a huge fucking deal

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4105 on: October 18, 2020, 01:13:14 PM »
The following can both be true;

-2.8 million Americans die a year and we don’t give it much thought
-excess mortality for 25 straight weeks and counting is a huge fucking deal

Yep. I mean, 3,000 Americans died on 9/11 and we ended up with a completely overhauled airport security system.

Nearly 220,000 COVID-19 deaths since February of this year is apparently not a enough deal to convince some pseudo-patriots to strap little pieces of fabric on their faces when they go to public places.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4106 on: October 18, 2020, 01:26:12 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4107 on: October 18, 2020, 01:59:37 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?
I didn't see the town hall, but it's possible to make a law saying eg "you can only attend a concert with more than 100 other people if you've been vaccinated".  Or if you wanted to travel abroad you have to produce a vaccination certificate to the country you are travelling to.  Mandatory but not mandatory: you can avoid it by making different choices, but eventually your choice not to be vaccinated is more of a problem than being vaccinated.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4108 on: October 18, 2020, 03:05:42 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?

What are you envisioning?  Jack booted feds kick down every person's door and forcefully administer the vaccine?  It's possible to prevent/ban unvaccinated folks from doing lots of stuff . . . but how would the mechanics of mandatory vaccination work?

It's important to remember that any vaccination we get before the end of next year is going to be tested much less than usual.  Chances of complications and problems are therefore likely going to be higher, maybe much higher.  I'm far and away from an antivaccine stance . . . but it seems to me that there are valid reasons to not get it (at least for a while after it's being introduced).

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4109 on: October 18, 2020, 03:13:13 PM »
Given the assumptions of how infectious covid-19 is there is no reason to vaccinate everyone. Bit over 60% should be sufficient provoided a vaccine is close to 100% efficient (which it is unlikely to be). For measels - the most contaigious virus known you need somwehere in the high 90s and that vaccine is 95% efficient after two doses. The famous R for measels is estimated at 12-18, meaning every person who has it infects 12-18 others.

Apparently the old adage “death and taxes” was once “death, taxes and measles” (sources on that admittedly scarce so might be a modern invention)

So anti-vaccers unlikely to spoil the party. The disease does not spread fast enough.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 03:14:45 PM by habanero »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4110 on: October 18, 2020, 03:16:15 PM »
Agreed, everyone should be willing to "strap little pieces of fabric on their faces" to help slow the spread of covid and benefit the community. Maybe, if Uncle Joe wins, we'll get to see how he and the Democrats do at dealing with the pandemic. I think having a calm, sane person as head of state will make a difference, hopefully. TBH, though, I feel a little uncomfortable with Joe's reluctance to answer with an unequivocal, "NO!" when he was asked at his town hall meeting, last Wednesday, whether he would make a Covid vaccine mandatory. To me, it's fucking crazy that someone who may become our president in just 3 months believes that a vaccine that hasn't even been completed or approved yet should be MANDATORY. He qualified his answer by saying that, yeah, it's not really possible to *force* Americans to get a vaccine, but that he would still like to make the vaccine mandatory. wtf?
I didn't see the town hall, but it's possible to make a law saying eg "you can only attend a concert with more than 100 other people if you've been vaccinated".  Or if you wanted to travel abroad you have to produce a vaccination certificate to the country you are travelling to.  Mandatory but not mandatory: you can avoid it by making different choices, but eventually your choice not to be vaccinated is more of a problem than being vaccinated.

Yeah, we don't have jackbooted soldiers showing up to drag people outside and stick needles in their arms. But generally, kids have to be vaccinated to attend public school, health workers have to be vaccinated against hepatitis viruses, etc., and many countries require travelers to have been vaccinated prior to entry. I could also see airlines, senior residential communities, and tertiary educational facilities deciding to require vaccination.

In other words, you can't be forced to vaccinate, but you may be self-selecting yourself out of various public settings. Again, same deal as refusing to wear a mask into a private business. Here in Michigan, that's now in violation of a public health department mandate (and OSHA, for employers/employees), and a business can legally refuse entry.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4111 on: October 18, 2020, 03:21:59 PM »
The following can both be true;

-2.8 million Americans die a year and we don’t give it much thought
-excess mortality for 25 straight weeks and counting is a huge fucking deal

Yep. I mean, 3,000 Americans died on 9/11 and we ended up with a completely overhauled airport security system.

Not to mention invaded a foreign country and maintained a significant military presence there for nearly 20 years now.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4112 on: October 18, 2020, 04:30:46 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

Seconded.

Save your pennies, maybe you can immigrate to Ontario, Canada.   (Medical assistance in dying is available here.)

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4113 on: October 18, 2020, 06:45:48 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.


I agree with you that additional options for death should be available for those who might wish it

Seconded.

Save your pennies, maybe you can immigrate to Ontario, Canada.   (Medical assistance in dying is available here.)

It's been a long time since I last visited Ontario, but I have good memories of time spent there, as a kid. Last summer, we really enjoyed a short visit to Vancouver, B.C. Definitely looking forward to visiting Canada again, after covid ends. Not sure how easy it would be for us as retirees to move there permanently, though. The exchange rate looks pretty good now...

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4114 on: October 18, 2020, 07:07:37 PM »
As far as mandatory vaccines goes, I just felt like it was a dumb move for Biden to say out loud, in public that he would like to make a covid vaccine mandatory. Obviously, it's possible for schools, airlines, employers, etc., to make school attendance, employment or a plane ticket dependent upon proof of vaccination. That doesn't mean, though, that it would be mandatory. Nobody has to fly on a plane, work for any particular employer or send their kids to a public school. Those are all choices people get to make. Maybe it's just semantics, but I was pretty frustrated by Biden's choice of words. Once a vaccine seems relatively safe and effective, my family and I are definitely planning on getting it. We're not anti-vaxxers, by any stretch of the imagination. Our daughter has all of the vaccines recommended by her pediatrician, and when we traveled around the world for 2 years, we got all the shots recommended by the CDC for each of the countries we visited. We have American friends, though, who are big time anti-vaxxers. They homeschool their kids, so they don't have to get them vaccinated. I think it's dumb, but that's their choice. I don't think they should be forced to do anything. I think our government needs to do a better job of educating the public and persuading them to voluntarily get vaccinated. For months on social media, I've been trying to reassure "vaccine skeptics," as some of our anti-vaxx friends like to call themselves, that "there's not a chance in hell that any US government will try to make a covid vaccine mandatory. It's not going to happen. Stop worrying!" And then that dumb ass Biden gets up on the stage and says to the whole world that he would like to make a covid vaccine mandatory. smdh. :)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4115 on: October 18, 2020, 07:41:41 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4116 on: October 18, 2020, 08:03:20 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Coming from Australia, I'm not surprised you think that, Bloop. I also know some Americans who would agree with you, wholeheartedly. I've just always preferred to use words to persuade people to do things I want them to do, rather than brute force. I guess you're not actually advocating *force*, but your approach seems a bit more forceful than I'd be comfortable with.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4117 on: October 18, 2020, 08:40:09 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

My view is more along the lines of 'no vaccination, no passport' or 'no vaccination, mandatory quarantine upon return from any other country'. Otherwise there'll be continual re-introduction of any overseas-acquired viruses (and not just covid) into the community.

That way one can refuse the vaccination if they really want, provided they accept the travel limitations.

The 5km limit has now been increased to 25km after almost a week of days of new case numbers in single figures, along with a few other eased restrictions. Retail/hospitality is set to reopen from the 2nd of November, potentially earlier. I can finally get a haircut, I haven't had one of those since June. I drove past the hairdressers today and there was about four people queued out the front.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 08:45:14 PM by alsoknownasDean »

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4118 on: October 18, 2020, 10:29:28 PM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

So the stick comes out for the poor, but the wealthy can do as they please?  I think that the speed at which any vaccine has been produced will cause concern among many.  I would be willing to get a vaccine if it has been through the proper clinical trials, but not if it is fast-tracked without the usual safeguards.

As a school teacher, there is no "force" used to get me to get a flu vaccine every year.  But our school makes sure it is free, and available at the school on at least two days, usually in May.  Almost 100% of the staff get it.  If the same sort of approach is used with a covid vaccine, easy to get, free and with known health benefits, I suspect 70 - 80% of the Australian population would get it.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4119 on: October 18, 2020, 10:30:39 PM »
It makes zero sense to me to start out talking about coercive measures the government might take to try to force people into getting a vaccine that doesn't even exist yet. As I think habanero said above, it's possible that with covid we may not need as many people to get vaccinated as with some other, more contagious, diseases like measles, in order to wipe it out. If 2 or 3 years from now the world is still struggling with constant reinfections of covid by people who travel abroad, then, yeah, maybe then it would make sense for governments to start becoming more aggressive in their strategies for trying to get more people vaccinated. At this point, though, I think we should concentrate on coming up with safe vaccines that work. That'll be the best way to get more people on board with getting vaccinated. If anti-vaxxers look around and see that those of us who have gotten the vaccine aren't keeling over and that we are able to return to our normal lives, without fear of getting sick, then many of them will voluntarily get vaccinated themselves. I just think Joe Biden, and others, should save their authoritarian rhetoric for a later date.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4120 on: October 19, 2020, 03:56:04 AM »
For an epidemic to eventually fizzle out you need immunity in 1 - 1/R of the population, where R is the effective reproduction number. For Covid-19 R is estimated around 3, which means 1 - 1/3 = 66.7% of the population needs immunity one way or the other. The easy way to think about this is that if on average every person infects 3 others, but 2 of those have immunity then they won't get the disease and won't spread it on so the reproductive number will stay under 1. This does not mean that noone will get it of course, it just means that the rate of infections will go down instead of up and eventually it will almost completely die out.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4121 on: October 19, 2020, 07:22:12 AM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

If available next year, a vaccine for covid will have been approved faster and with fewer safety checks than a normal vaccine.  So when you say you support a mandatory vaccine subject to medical issues . . . what exactly do you mean?  The medical issues will be unknown when it's available.

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Is this going to include the people who suck the most from the state's teat - those who pay reduced taxes on investment income?

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4122 on: October 19, 2020, 09:42:51 AM »
See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.
Damn dude. "Poor people should be the subject of coercive medical experimentation" is a take! Maybe that's not what you meant, but it is the direct implication of what you said.

Requiring the vaccination for school attendance or the usage of public and semi-public facilities (e.g. community centers, libraries, restaurants, non-essential stores) is fine. Tying the provision of otherwise unrelated benefits to being vaccinated is on the other side of the line.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4123 on: October 19, 2020, 05:14:04 PM »
I'm looking forward to a Covid vaccine, but I want to be sure it has been properly tested before I get it.  I expect lots of people will think the same thing, so early use will most likely be in people who are at greatest risk.  I can keep self-isolating until I am ready to be confident in it.  Canada seems to be being a bit less eager to push for an early vaccine and a bit more willing to let the trials proceed at an acceptable pace, so this may not end up being much of an issue.  Time will tell.

BTW, I get my flu vaccine every year (normally easy to get here) and when DD was a child she got all the recommended vaccinations on schedule.  If the Covid vaccine ends up being a repeat vaccine, then we will just need to get it on a more regular basis.  Flu vaccine is only good for a year (because of fluctuations in which strains are common in any year) , tetanus should be redone every ten years, it isn't like all vaccines are for life.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4124 on: October 19, 2020, 07:03:13 PM »
For Covid-19 R is estimated around 3, which means 1 - 1/3 = 66.7% of the population needs immunity one way or the other.

Unfortunately the math is a bit lot more fuzzy than that and not quite so simple.


« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 07:04:48 PM by HBFIRE »

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4125 on: October 20, 2020, 12:09:50 AM »

Unfortunately the math is a bit lot more fuzzy than that and not quite so simple.

Yes, I know. The point is still that it's not necessary that everyone takes a shot, nor to force it upon everyone. And as mentioned in the article it depends on a lot of factors, how efficient the vaccine is being one of the key ones.

The idea that "everyone must be vaccinated" is more relevant for measels where you need a much higher proportion of the population due to the very high infection rate.

I also have a hunch that a large part of the population views a vaccine as a binary thing - as in something offering 100% protection which generally is not the case.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 02:24:08 AM by habanero »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4126 on: October 20, 2020, 04:45:48 AM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

If available next year, a vaccine for covid will have been approved faster and with fewer safety checks than a normal vaccine.  So when you say you support a mandatory vaccine subject to medical issues . . . what exactly do you mean?  The medical issues will be unknown when it's available.

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Is this going to include the people who suck the most from the state's teat - those who pay reduced taxes on investment income?

if it's not safe then it's not safe and no one needs to take it. If whoever approves vaccines isn't happy to approve it like they would approve any other vaccine then don't put it out and keep it experimental or optional or whatever. I leave that to the professionals to decide.

And haha at the investment income jibe.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4127 on: October 20, 2020, 07:23:47 AM »
I don't see why a vaccine shouldn't be mandatory (Subject to medical issues, both general to the larger population and confined to any given individual).

If available next year, a vaccine for covid will have been approved faster and with fewer safety checks than a normal vaccine.  So when you say you support a mandatory vaccine subject to medical issues . . . what exactly do you mean?  The medical issues will be unknown when it's available.

if people don't want to get the vaccination they shouldn't be thrown in jail, but I would advocate stopping payment of any and all medical/welfare/social security benefits till they do - again, subject to medical exemptions.

Maybe it's bad "optics" but it's time we stopped giving any thought to the views of the anti-vaxxer crowd. See how tough they are when they can no longer suck from the state's teat.

Is this going to include the people who suck the most from the state's teat - those who pay reduced taxes on investment income?

if it's not safe then it's not safe and no one needs to take it. If whoever approves vaccines isn't happy to approve it like they would approve any other vaccine then don't put it out and keep it experimental or optional or whatever. I leave that to the professionals to decide.

Although researchers will have done everything that they can to ensure safety, we won't really know if it's safe.  It's not possible to ensure that in such a short period of time.  It will almost certainly be approved for use regardless, as the risk from impacts of the virus (including economic risks) will be viewed as higher.



And haha at the investment income jibe.

This was not a jibe.

I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings.  This makes me a taker from society, and certainly someone who sucks deeply at the state's teat.  If your concern is people taking advantage of the state, I suck more via my investments than your typical poor person does via welfare.  It makes no sense to be upset only at the poor.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4128 on: October 20, 2020, 08:00:57 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4129 on: October 20, 2020, 09:26:55 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4130 on: October 20, 2020, 05:01:09 PM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

I find it hard to believe that GuitarStv is a net taker from society.   As long as you're not cheating on your taxes, you're paying what society has asked you to pay.

Also, in Ontario, we can complete line 46500 on our tax return in the event that we feel we aren't paying enough taxes.    The money we voluntarily pay on this line is earmarked to pay down the provincial debt.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4131 on: October 20, 2020, 05:12:37 PM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

I find it hard to believe that GuitarStv is a net taker from society.   As long as you're not cheating on your taxes, you're paying what society has asked you to pay.

Also, in Ontario, we can complete line 46500 on our tax return in the event that we feel we aren't paying enough taxes.    The money we voluntarily pay on this line is earmarked to pay down the provincial debt.

I would be interested to see stats on the usage of that box.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4132 on: October 20, 2020, 05:20:01 PM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Well, that would include pretty much everyone. A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes). That doesn't pass the eyeball test, so I'm a little skeptical of the per capita budget.

However, I think it's fair to say that some people use more in government benefits than others (people over 62, for example).

I find it hard to believe that GuitarStv is a net taker from society.   As long as you're not cheating on your taxes, you're paying what society has asked you to pay.

Also, in Ontario, we can complete line 46500 on our tax return in the event that we feel we aren't paying enough taxes.    The money we voluntarily pay on this line is earmarked to pay down the provincial debt.

I would be interested to see stats on the usage of that box.

I would too.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4133 on: October 21, 2020, 08:05:50 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying. 

tralfamadorian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4134 on: October 21, 2020, 08:33:34 AM »
...
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

I would surmise that income that the government derives from each resident includes federal and state income tax, sales tax, real estate taxes of primary residences, residential rental real estate and commercial/industrial property (you purchase from a business that hereby is able to pay their own taxes), employer side taxes and some others that are not coming to mind at the moment. So, personal yearly taxes due on April 15 > $20k does not automatically make you an under-contributor.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4135 on: October 21, 2020, 08:40:58 AM »
Wikipedia's link is a pretty unsophisticated Total Budget / population.  This doesn't take into consideration number of people filing individual taxes or other sources of revenue, which gets complicated quickly. 

I would love to see a better breakdown of where US revenue is coming from specifically from individual income taxes.  One thing I found was that the top 1% provides a greater share of revenue than the bottom 90% (and how embarrassing it is that 90% of income earners are "the bottom"), so The vast majority of us are not paying our "fair share" if you want to calculate fair share as equal proportion, which I sure don't since I don't get an equal share of the benefit of all that money.

One thing that is blindingly obvious from a very superficial dive into the CBO, is that the current deficit is not sustainable and we need to raise taxes on everyone.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4136 on: October 21, 2020, 08:50:19 AM »
...
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

I would surmise that income that the government derives from each resident includes federal and state income tax, sales tax, real estate taxes of primary residences, residential rental real estate and commercial/industrial property (you purchase from a business that hereby is able to pay their own taxes), employer side taxes and some others that are not coming to mind at the moment. So, personal yearly taxes due on April 15 > $20k does not automatically make you an under-contributor.

Yeah but a family of 3 would have a tax burden $62k but the median household income is only $60k in the usa (all 2017 numbers).  Still does not seem to add up to being possible to me.   

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4137 on: October 21, 2020, 09:17:33 AM »
Wikipedia's link is a pretty unsophisticated Total Budget / population.  This doesn't take into consideration number of people filing individual taxes or other sources of revenue, which gets complicated quickly. 

Is it unsophisticated?

It's pretty easy to get state revenues and, since most states pass through municipal sales tax, that's easily found as well. In fact, I found a handy table listing all revenue by source for my state, including utility taxes, alcoholic taxes, hotel taxes, and "other" taxes, among many others.

We have to remember that (some) corporations pay a lot in taxes. Exxon paid $8.6B in income taxes per year from 2008-2017. Apple paid over $10B in 2017. That quickly adds up (their business property taxes would be included in the state breakdown).


Eta: The $20k/person isn't helpful, though, since we all get a "credit" for Exxon's and Apple's payments. And maybe that's what you mean. We can't simply compare what an individual pays vs what the average benefit is because it ignores the billions and billions that are paid on our behalf, so to speak.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 09:20:02 AM by bacchi »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4138 on: October 21, 2020, 09:30:26 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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NotJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4139 on: October 21, 2020, 09:51:37 AM »
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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Same.  I paid an average of $25k in federal income tax + FICA for the last many years while maxing out 401k (that's about the only tax advantage I had available).  According to the numbers I've seen, I don't break the top 10% for income.

To even things out, I'm going to be an underpayer for a while...

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4140 on: October 21, 2020, 10:10:19 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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Ok so 401k + 401k + family HSA + MFJ deduction = $69,400 in income before you start being taxed.  On taxable income you then paid $970 in the 10% bracket, $8,310 in the 12% bracket, $19,679 in the 22% bracket, and $11,041 in the 24% bracket for a grand total of $40k in taxes on $214.4k of taxable income.  Plus the $69,400 that wasn't taxable means you earned $283.8k.  This places you in the top 3-4% of household income in 2019.  So "top 1%" might be a slight exaggeration.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4141 on: October 21, 2020, 10:15:41 AM »
I've paid about $6k in federal taxes from 2014-2019.  I've earned about $500k in those 6 years. 

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4142 on: October 21, 2020, 10:28:22 AM »
"I pay significantly less of my share of taxes on my investment earnings."

Perhaps if your only income is investment earnings and the tax you pay on it is outweighed by welfare handouts then you are indeed a taker from society. But if your net tax position (taxes paid less welfare payments/benefits in kind received) is positive then you are not.

If I have $50k in wage earnings and I'm meant to be paying (for the sake of example) $20k in tax on it, and instead I have $50k in investment earnings and I pay only $10k in tax on it, it's correct to say I've saved $10k in tax. It's not correct to say I've taken $10k from the government. More like the government has taken $10k less from me. It's quite different from someone with $0 in earnings who is paid a $10k handout by the government.
According to Wikipedia the cost per person of government services is almost identical in the USA and Australia, at $20,670 and $20,674 respectively.  If you are paying less than this in annual taxes you are indeed sucking at the government teat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_per_capita

Something about this seems off.  How can it be that high?  I've never paid anywhere even remotely close to that in taxes, nor have most people.  You'd have to be in the top 1% of income earners with a family of 3 to balance out and pay your fair share of taxes.  Obviously most families are not in the top 1%, and I can't see the top 1% paying enough to make up the slack of the other 99% under paying.

Looking at my w2 from last year I paid the federal government ~20k

My wife paid right at ~25k

Received a 5k refund so about 40k total

This was with us maxing out 401ks, HSA and every other tax advantaged item we could.

So we paid about 18% in federal taxes, add to that what our employers pay and all of the additional fees / taxes we pay and it adds up to a substantial amount.

We are no where near the 1% mark for earnings, according to most articles I have seen we are in the top 10% or so and I do everything I can to shield our income from taxes so not sure your statement about having to be in the top 1% is true.


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Ok so 401k + 401k + family HSA + MFJ deduction = $69,400 in income before you start being taxed.  On taxable income you then paid $970 in the 10% bracket, $8,310 in the 12% bracket, $19,679 in the 22% bracket, and $11,041 in the 24% bracket for a grand total of $40k in taxes on $214.4k of taxable income.  Plus the $69,400 that wasn't taxable means you earned $283.8k.  This places you in the top 3-4% of household income in 2019.  So "top 1%" might be a slight exaggeration.
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.


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frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4143 on: October 21, 2020, 10:33:38 AM »
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.

Where is the error?  How did you pay $40k in federal income taxes, and max 2 IRAs and an HSA and not have that income?

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4144 on: October 21, 2020, 10:38:47 AM »
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.

Where is the error?  How did you pay $40k in federal income taxes, and max 2 IRAs and an HSA and not have that income?
Not sure, took the information directly from my W2 and knew I was close on my wife’s.

I did round up from 19,580 to call it 20k to make it easy.

We get no advantage from the Roth due to income limits and HSA is just for me so $3050


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bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4145 on: October 21, 2020, 10:40:46 AM »
I wish we made that much you are off by tens of thousands of dollars :)

Even at the number you gave we would not be 1%. Add the taxes we paid plus everything else and employer payments into the tax system and I do not think that number mentioned up thread about tax burden per person is that unbelievable.

Remove all of the tax advantage stuff we do and that makes people with even lower income than us creep up into paying that amount of tax pretty easily. And I can say without a doubt very few people max out pretax buckets or even think about it.

Where is the error?  How did you pay $40k in federal income taxes, and max 2 IRAs and an HSA and not have that income?
Not sure, took the information directly from my W2 and knew I was close on my wife’s.

I did round up from 19,580 to call it 20k to make it easy.

We get no advantage from the Roth due to income limits and HSA is just for me so $3050


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The $20k number excludes FICA.

NotJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4146 on: October 21, 2020, 10:43:03 AM »
I've paid about $6k in federal taxes from 2014-2019.  I've earned about $500k in those 6 years.

This doesn't include FICA?

The $20k number excludes FICA.

But why?  Aren't SS and Medicare expenditures included in the budget?
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 10:46:13 AM by NotJen »

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4147 on: October 21, 2020, 10:51:08 AM »
I went by this so my number was all three combined.


“A household with two working spouses, which apparently costs the government $41,348, has to have an AGI of $254,440 before they pay that much in taxes (which includes federal income, SS & Medicare taxes”


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frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4148 on: October 21, 2020, 10:55:39 AM »
I've paid about $6k in federal taxes from 2014-2019.  I've earned about $500k in those 6 years.

This doesn't include FICA?


Correct.  My FICA was whatever the FICA tax rate is on my ~$500k, so about ~$38,250 in FICA over the last 6 years.  Plus my employer matched that.  Still doesn't seem to compare against the ~$300k* allotted to me and my family members from 2014-2019.   

*Using $20k/yr/person for me (6), my wife (6), and my son (3) from 2014-2019

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4149 on: October 21, 2020, 10:56:31 AM »
The $20k number excludes FICA.

But why?  Aren't SS and Medicare expenditures included in the budget?

Shrug. That's how the CIA World Factbook calculates it.

Quote from: ciaworldfactbook
note: revenues exclude social contributions of approximately $1.0 trillion; expenditures exclude social benefits of approximately $2.3 trillion

SS revenues are projected to be $1.011T in FY2021 but the numbers are from 2017 so it's possible it also includes medicare. It's vague.