Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675189 times)

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4050 on: October 15, 2020, 02:11:24 AM »
Victoria, 10 cases a day: "Well I suppose we might allow you to see someone outside the house, can't reopen retail though, and you have to stay within 5km, and can only leave the house for two hours a day, also we need new powers to be able to detain people without charge or trial on the suspicion that they might not stay home when we tell them to."

UK, 10,000 cases a day: "We should probably close pubs."

"Lockdown" is a very, very broad term.
Australia has reasonable hopes of pretty much getting rid of the virus altogether.  The UK is just trying to stop too many people dying at the same time.  Completely different strategies for completely different purposes.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4051 on: October 15, 2020, 02:34:25 AM »
Victoria, 10 cases a day: "Well I suppose we might allow you to see someone outside the house, can't reopen retail though, and you have to stay within 5km, and can only leave the house for two hours a day, also we need new powers to be able to detain people without charge or trial on the suspicion that they might not stay home when we tell them to."

UK, 10,000 cases a day: "We should probably close pubs."

"Lockdown" is a very, very broad term.
Australia has reasonable hopes of pretty much getting rid of the virus altogether.  The UK is just trying to stop too many people dying at the same time.  Completely different strategies for completely different purposes.

@former player is Avalon in Australia? It has been close to you then. 

Totally agree with what you said, and elimination from the local community is obviously the aim.

I watched some of the NZ election coverage.  No distancing, no masks.  Just back to normal.  We can get there in a month or two.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4052 on: October 15, 2020, 04:56:52 AM »
Avalon is Britain

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4053 on: October 15, 2020, 05:50:48 AM »
I found out through a coincidence that the receptionist at a place I'd gone to yesterday and the day before tested positive for COVID. She was behind a screen (though normally wore her mask on her chin) and I always had my mask on when I was near her. So I'm not particularly worried. I am curious to see if I'll be contacted about it since I had appointments the last two days and they could obviously figure out I was there.

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.


It seems clear to me looking at maps and the spread of this that it's been going in waves through different regions in the US. It started on the coasts in NYC and Seattle, spread through the northeast, then to the sunbelt, and now through the interior - midwest and mountain region. Right now it's spiking in the Dakotas, Montana, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Alaska, Indiana, and New Mexico.

Remember how everyone is Florida and Texas were going to die (with little mention of California in the same condition)? Now they went through their spike (average 11k and 10k cases per day, respectively) and things leveled off (average 3k and 4k cases per day, respectively).

Excellent visualization of the data on this page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html I refresh it every day or two.

Sanitary Stache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4054 on: October 15, 2020, 07:28:23 AM »
Thanks for sharing that resource @Michael in ABQ.  What stood out to me, which seems somewhat relevant to this thread, is the difference in total deaths between the early March-April surge in the northeast and the later surges in California/Texas/Florida and now the midwest/rural surge. 

The data implies that flattening the curve has gone a very long way toward reducing the death toll.  A strong argument for continuing to keep the curve flat.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4055 on: October 15, 2020, 10:59:01 AM »
Is California in the same condition as Florida? Significantly fewer cases and deaths per capita.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4056 on: October 15, 2020, 11:03:55 AM »
Thanks for sharing that resource @Michael in ABQ.  What stood out to me, which seems somewhat relevant to this thread, is the difference in total deaths between the early March-April surge in the northeast and the later surges in California/Texas/Florida and now the midwest/rural surge. 

The data implies that flattening the curve has gone a very long way toward reducing the death toll.  A strong argument for continuing to keep the curve flat.

My mental benchmark for this kind of comparison has always been Louisiana, because like the northeast, it was hit early on. But it's population density is closer to that of other states and the weather is generally warmer. Nothing super scientific, just a rule of thumb.

If we didn't control local spread and shut down interstate flights early on, I definitely could see the entire country looking more like Louisiana. For context, that's another 180K deaths. If it looked more like Massachusetts or New Jersey/New York, obviously it'd be even worse.

180K is a staggeringly large number. I agree that it's a strong argument for staying the course (at bare minimum).

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4057 on: October 15, 2020, 02:56:57 PM »
180K is a staggeringly large number.

It's bit more than 1/3 of the annual death toll from smoking in the US. (estimated at 480k / year).

One one hand you have the option of not smoking (albeit 41k of the 480k are from secondhand exposure). On the other hand these 480k happen every year.

Numers from here https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm


GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4058 on: October 15, 2020, 03:52:26 PM »
180K is a staggeringly large number.

It's bit more than 1/3 of the annual death toll from smoking in the US. (estimated at 480k / year).

One one hand you have the option of not smoking (albeit 41k of the 480k are from secondhand exposure). On the other hand these 480k happen every year.

Numers from here https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm

This is an odd comment to make.

You're comparing voluntarily putting an addictive poison into your body (and typically doing so for decades before succumbing to it) with a novel viral pandemic.  To what end?

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4059 on: October 15, 2020, 04:00:41 PM »
Only an example of how far the perception of «dangerous», «tragedy» «avoid at any cost» and such has moved. Im not in any way  opposed to preventing spread of covid (and we have been very good at it where I live) but im a bit baffled why suddenly everyone runs around and try to pretend that every death is a tragedy and something society is obliged to go to any length to prevent from happening.The usual standard is that hardly anyone cares apart from friends and family.


Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4060 on: October 15, 2020, 04:54:35 PM »
Is California in the same condition as Florida? Significantly fewer cases and deaths per capita.

Yes. California peaked at around 10,000 cases per day (a bit less per capita than Texas and Florida) and has leveled out in the last month or two around 3k cases per day.

As far as deaths, California is much lower at 1.0 per 100,000 per day in the last 7 days. Texas is 1.8, and Florida is at 3.2. New York is down to 0.3.

Part of that might be the older demographic in Florida which has a median age of 42 compared to 36 and 34 for Texas and California respectively. Obviously Florida is known as a retiree haven so it probably has a large cohort over 70 which are more likely to die from COVID.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4061 on: October 15, 2020, 05:19:51 PM »
Only an example of how far the perception of «dangerous», «tragedy» «avoid at any cost» and such has moved. Im not in any way  opposed to preventing spread of covid (and we have been very good at it where I live) but im a bit baffled why suddenly everyone runs around and try to pretend that every death is a tragedy and something society is obliged to go to any length to prevent from happening.The usual standard is that hardly anyone cares apart from friends and family.
Last I checked I have the ability to choose not to smoke cigarettes (or go to smoking establishments) and I can go about living my life as normal.

I do not however have the ability to choose not to catch a highly contagious virus while still living my life as normal.


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Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4062 on: October 15, 2020, 06:17:09 PM »
Yeah, shutting bars down is not "at any cost". That is a hyperbolic statement at best. Other people's lives are worth more than our convenience. That being said, there is a middle ground that can sustain the economy in some fashion through the potential fall wave. A lot of it is wearing a mask and washing hands. The other part is not hanging out indoors with random strangers.

I counter the smoking example with another nonsense example. Why have limits on alcohol consumption before driving? We all like to have a good time, right? If a few extra tens of thousand bite the dust, it's no biggie! Think of all the increased revenue and employment from those jam-packed restaurants and bars' liquor sales! Except for their families and friends...

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4063 on: October 15, 2020, 07:11:53 PM »
Only an example of how far the perception of «dangerous», «tragedy» «avoid at any cost» and such has moved. Im not in any way  opposed to preventing spread of covid (and we have been very good at it where I live) but im a bit baffled why suddenly everyone runs around and try to pretend that every death is a tragedy and something society is obliged to go to any length to prevent from happening.The usual standard is that hardly anyone cares apart from friends and family.

Now re-run the numbers if we didn't care about COVID at all. We're concerned because the death toll is competitive with other mass causes of death after implementing control measures. It truly would be a tragedy if we pretended it wasn't a societal issue.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4064 on: October 15, 2020, 08:56:32 PM »
Only an example of how far the perception of «dangerous», «tragedy» «avoid at any cost» and such has moved. Im not in any way  opposed to preventing spread of covid (and we have been very good at it where I live) but im a bit baffled why suddenly everyone runs around and try to pretend that every death is a tragedy and something society is obliged to go to any length to prevent from happening.The usual standard is that hardly anyone cares apart from friends and family.

Now re-run the numbers if we didn't care about COVID at all. We're concerned because the death toll is competitive with other mass causes of death after implementing control measures. It truly would be a tragedy if we pretended it wasn't a societal issue.

I remember noting back in March that the only way to prove people who are opposed to infection containment numbers wrong is to dance on the mountain of bodies and say "told you so". But there's always the possibility of a higher mountain they can stand on and say "well I don't know any of those people in either pile so who cares!" The 1918 influenza pandemic killed ~20 million worldwide, 5x more US citizens (~700k) than the "War to end all wars" that was just finishing, and there was still strong opposition to infection control measures in areas like San Francisco, NYC and LA, for example. At least we've, on average, learned something...
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 09:03:35 PM by Abe »

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4065 on: October 15, 2020, 09:56:25 PM »
In Australia (population 5 million at about that time), WWI killed 60,000 and influenza 12,000.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4066 on: October 16, 2020, 01:57:54 AM »
Yeah, shutting bars down is not "at any cost". That is a hyperbolic statement at best. Other people's lives are worth more than our convenience. That being said, there is a middle ground that can sustain the economy in some fashion through the potential fall wave. A lot of it is wearing a mask and washing hands. The other part is not hanging out indoors with random strangers.

This was kind of my point, in a way. Some context: Where I live we have been very good at striking this balance for one reason or another - a fairly compliant population, high level of trust in government, demographics and maybe just some sheer luck. As of now we have 22 in hospitals of which 5 in ICU of which 2 on a ventilator. So it's a level of strain on the health system that's barely measurable and it has been like this since the march/april peak died out due to the measures implemented. Death toll is 278. Population bit over 5 mio in the country and measured in covid-19 deaths per capita we rank at 100-something in the world. And btw we do count every single one so the number is accurate give or take a very small handful. Unemployment is still higher than pre-Covid, but way, way down from the peak and by historical standards there is nothing special about the current rate. For most people life is fairly normal, but someone working in (or used to) working in hospitality, airlines or culture is probably gonna disagree with that statement.

With no measures or a non-compliant population etc the numbers would of course be higher, potentially by very, very much - that's not really debatable. But even with these - so far - very low number there is still an underlying anxiety in the population, a sense that every death from Covid-19 is a some major news item (it gets flashed in the news when it happens) and while we have the usual camps of laxing measures / keeping as is / tightening further the general consensus is that our politicians and other bodies of government have done a pretty good job so far while some details of this and that can of course be debated if should be more so or less so or skipped or if they should have done this instead of that.

If we continue at this pace for the rest of the year Covid-19 is probably gonna be among least common cause of death in the country for which there is any statistics apart from traffic deaths, of which we have very few as well. Still, even with these, on an international scale, stupid low numbers this is still seen as health risk numero uno. It isn't, it hasn't been but it could probably have been.

If we look at who has actually died from covid-19, 65% are aged 80+. If now "lives lost" has been introduced as the holy metric and what should guide society as a whole one at least has to be consistent and should also apply to other sides of life. I would for example assume that by very simple, non-invading measures like good hygiene, not sending children to school/kindergarden when sick etc a good chunk of annual deaths from the regular flu could be prevented, but it has never been even a topic of discussion despite claiming in the area of 1000 lives per year. And rinse and repeat for pretty much any cause of death that could have been prevented or at least delayed by a few years if this or that measure was taken. But people won't do that and when Covid-19 I guess everything will be back to normal and noone bar friends and family will really care when someone dies (at old age).

Humans are pretty bad at rationally assessing risks. And I don't buy it when pretty much everyone is running around claiming a sudden and great overall care for the elderly, chronically sick etc. Because it wasn't there before and I don't think it will be there afterwards when life returns to normal. If it was there to start with, quite a few things would be different.

And yes, of course inhaling a toxic substance is your own choice as opposed to getting a virus from some random person. But so is living a life that puts you in an at-risk-zone for a lot of nasty stuff including Covid-19. So if "lives" is the new currency, then it should apply elsewhere than the field of Covid-19. There are tons of lives to be saved or prolonged with much less invasive measures than we are currently seeing. Most "early" deaths come from lifestyle choices. Even these days with Covid-19 in the equation.

Jouer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4067 on: October 16, 2020, 07:13:03 AM »

(snip)

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.

(snip)


Wow, we have about 750 new cases a day here in Ontario, which at a population of 15 million is 5 cases per 100,000. And we are freaking out since we were around 100 daily cases here in early August.

In the three hardest hit regions, not coincidently the largest cities, we've gone back to a modified stage 2 where bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc. are shut down.

Schools are open but the implementation has been a shit-show and our beloved minor hockey is shutting down in some regions. Halloween in cancelled in at least one city.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4068 on: October 16, 2020, 09:28:04 AM »
Yeah, shutting bars down is not "at any cost". That is a hyperbolic statement at best. Other people's lives are worth more than our convenience. That being said, there is a middle ground that can sustain the economy in some fashion through the potential fall wave. A lot of it is wearing a mask and washing hands. The other part is not hanging out indoors with random strangers.

This was kind of my point, in a way. Some context: Where I live we have been very good at striking this balance for one reason or another - a fairly compliant population, high level of trust in government, demographics and maybe just some sheer luck. As of now we have 22 in hospitals of which 5 in ICU of which 2 on a ventilator. So it's a level of strain on the health system that's barely measurable and it has been like this since the march/april peak died out due to the measures implemented. Death toll is 278. Population bit over 5 mio in the country and measured in covid-19 deaths per capita we rank at 100-something in the world. And btw we do count every single one so the number is accurate give or take a very small handful. Unemployment is still higher than pre-Covid, but way, way down from the peak and by historical standards there is nothing special about the current rate. For most people life is fairly normal, but someone working in (or used to) working in hospitality, airlines or culture is probably gonna disagree with that statement.

With no measures or a non-compliant population etc the numbers would of course be higher, potentially by very, very much - that's not really debatable. But even with these - so far - very low number there is still an underlying anxiety in the population, a sense that every death from Covid-19 is a some major news item (it gets flashed in the news when it happens) and while we have the usual camps of laxing measures / keeping as is / tightening further the general consensus is that our politicians and other bodies of government have done a pretty good job so far while some details of this and that can of course be debated if should be more so or less so or skipped or if they should have done this instead of that.

If we continue at this pace for the rest of the year Covid-19 is probably gonna be among least common cause of death in the country for which there is any statistics apart from traffic deaths, of which we have very few as well. Still, even with these, on an international scale, stupid low numbers this is still seen as health risk numero uno. It isn't, it hasn't been but it could probably have been.

If we look at who has actually died from covid-19, 65% are aged 80+. If now "lives lost" has been introduced as the holy metric and what should guide society as a whole one at least has to be consistent and should also apply to other sides of life. I would for example assume that by very simple, non-invading measures like good hygiene, not sending children to school/kindergarden when sick etc a good chunk of annual deaths from the regular flu could be prevented, but it has never been even a topic of discussion despite claiming in the area of 1000 lives per year. And rinse and repeat for pretty much any cause of death that could have been prevented or at least delayed by a few years if this or that measure was taken. But people won't do that and when Covid-19 I guess everything will be back to normal and noone bar friends and family will really care when someone dies (at old age).

Humans are pretty bad at rationally assessing risks. And I don't buy it when pretty much everyone is running around claiming a sudden and great overall care for the elderly, chronically sick etc. Because it wasn't there before and I don't think it will be there afterwards when life returns to normal. If it was there to start with, quite a few things would be different.

And yes, of course inhaling a toxic substance is your own choice as opposed to getting a virus from some random person. But so is living a life that puts you in an at-risk-zone for a lot of nasty stuff including Covid-19. So if "lives" is the new currency, then it should apply elsewhere than the field of Covid-19. There are tons of lives to be saved or prolonged with much less invasive measures than we are currently seeing. Most "early" deaths come from lifestyle choices. Even these days with Covid-19 in the equation.
Not sure where you live but in the US we spend a large amount of money, time and effort on all sorts of enforcement / education on trying to reduce deaths and health related issues to pretty much any data point you can come up with.

Just one example

Smoking - free medications to help you quit, free hotlines to help you quit, surgeon general warnings on the pack, tv Ad’s, Billboards, age restrictions, higher taxes, enforcement of age restrictions and even outlawed indoors in many areas.

Similar examples exist for drugs, drinking, driving, food safety, nutrition health and safety and on and on.

Do they stop it? No
Do they help? Yes (sometimes it takes decades)

So yes deaths from the above items are sad, but major efforts are made to reduce and eliminate where possible.

With a virus / pandemic efforts need to happen fast you can not wait decades for cultural change to happen.


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the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4069 on: October 16, 2020, 09:32:45 AM »
Sorry double post

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4070 on: October 16, 2020, 10:35:23 AM »

(snip)

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.

(snip)


Wow, we have about 750 new cases a day here in Ontario, which at a population of 15 million is 5 cases per 100,000. And we are freaking out since we were around 100 daily cases here in early August.

In the three hardest hit regions, not coincidently the largest cities, we've gone back to a modified stage 2 where bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc. are shut down.

Schools are open but the implementation has been a shit-show and our beloved minor hockey is shutting down in some regions. Halloween in cancelled in at least one city.

577 cases in the WHOLE STATE? Jesus, over here next door we're hitting an average of 200 new cases per day for weeks just in our single COUNTY, and our hospitals are getting close to capacity.  And yet, there's hardly any local concern about it (ETA, except the heads of our two hospitals, who are freaking out).  It's astonishing.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4071 on: October 16, 2020, 10:38:28 AM »

(snip)

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.

(snip)


Wow, we have about 750 new cases a day here in Ontario, which at a population of 15 million is 5 cases per 100,000. And we are freaking out since we were around 100 daily cases here in early August.

In the three hardest hit regions, not coincidently the largest cities, we've gone back to a modified stage 2 where bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc. are shut down.

Schools are open but the implementation has been a shit-show and our beloved minor hockey is shutting down in some regions. Halloween in cancelled in at least one city.

577 cases in the WHOLE STATE? Jesus, over here next door we're hitting an average of 200 new cases per day for weeks just in our single COUNTY, and our hospitals are getting close to capacity.  And yet, there's hardly any local concern about it (ETA, except the heads of our two hospitals, who are freaking out).  It's astonishing.

Wisconsin?

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4072 on: October 16, 2020, 11:09:09 AM »

Not sure where you live but in the US we spend a large amount of money, time and effort on all sorts of enforcement / education on trying to reduce deaths and health related issues to pretty much any data point you can come up with.


So do we, obviously. And with much higher success than the US on probably on any data point you can come up with. Spending on health care is way lower than in the US but life expectancy is about 5 years longer and overall health in the population is much better. And oh, everyone has access to advanced health care of course and if you max out your own "deductible" you are looking at something like all of 200 dollars per year in out-of-pocket expenses. This is also partly of the reason why Covid-19 containment has been successful. People who suspect they are sick can stay home at their own free will with zero influence on pay or job security. And if you get sick and require hospitalization you will get the best treatment available which happens to be the same as anyone else can get. Our health system has been nowhere near capacity so far.

Im not in any way opposed to measures to contain Covid-19, even fairly drastic ones - if anyone should have that impression. I think we over here have struck a fairly good balance given out local circumstances which are obviously quite different than what a major world city like New York probably would need to do to obtain the same results. In my personal - and frankly largely irrelevant opinion - I think we have probably slightly overreacted in some key areas (like reopening day care and schools too late), but overall I think our politicians and the government has done a very good job in striking a balance so far. We do have the luxury of a government pretty well wired into reality and they mostly listens to the pandemic experts which also helps. My life is fairly normal these days and my personal sacrifices are so small they are not even worth mentioning plus I have gotten some side benefits like partly wfh which is a new one for me personally and I kind of enjoy. Once the kid's school was back in business it was all pretty good. The school closure lasted bit less than 2 months which everyone in hindsight agrees was too long.

What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself. It is very much so for especially the elderly and also for someone with the wrong underlying condition(s) and also for a few random outliers. I simply don't believe in this newfound great care for these groups. And I'm pretty certain it will evaporate once there is an efficient vaccine available and we all can put this behind us. Or to put in another way, there is close to zero will to implement measures that on an annual basis, and definately over several years, would save way more lives than any Covid-19-motivated measure. Like just outright banning smoking, for example. Hence the reference to annual death toll from smoking. Which is truly a staggering number given how few  actively smokes.

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4073 on: October 16, 2020, 11:21:48 AM »

(snip)

New Mexico is hitting all-time highs despite staying relatively locked-down - and the Governor is increasing it further now. Had 577 cases yesterday, 7-day average is above 400 which surpasses the previous peak in late July around 325. This is in a state of 2 million+ so about 20 new cases per 100,000. When I get back to the state at the beginning of September we were as low as about 130/day on average.

(snip)


Wow, we have about 750 new cases a day here in Ontario, which at a population of 15 million is 5 cases per 100,000. And we are freaking out since we were around 100 daily cases here in early August.

In the three hardest hit regions, not coincidently the largest cities, we've gone back to a modified stage 2 where bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc. are shut down.

Schools are open but the implementation has been a shit-show and our beloved minor hockey is shutting down in some regions. Halloween in cancelled in at least one city.

577 cases in the WHOLE STATE? Jesus, over here next door we're hitting an average of 200 new cases per day for weeks just in our single COUNTY, and our hospitals are getting close to capacity.  And yet, there's hardly any local concern about it (ETA, except the heads of our two hospitals, who are freaking out).  It's astonishing.

Wisconsin?

Texas, though the situation in my home state is also shocking.

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4074 on: October 16, 2020, 12:37:49 PM »
What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself.

Don't most people care for their elderly parents or grandparents?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4075 on: October 16, 2020, 12:42:18 PM »
What's the deal with cracking down on drunk drivers?  We barely even have like 30 deaths/day in the USA due to drunk driving.  Seems pretty small compared to the 1,000/day we have from coronavirus.  Complete over reaction to drunk drivers IMO, we should just let it run rampant. 

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4076 on: October 16, 2020, 12:51:49 PM »
What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself.

Don't most people care for their elderly parents or grandparents?
I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to. And they are the ones who regularily die (being old and all). We went to see my parents in June and considered not going as we live in the capital (one of the local hotspots by our local standards) and they are old and my dad's overall health not the best. I briefly mentioned that to my mom and she would have none of that and we should most def come. That's their call, I guess.

In the western world somewhere between 0.6% and 1% of the population die every year from something. I find it immensely shallow to pretend this is anything people care about at all unless its one own's beloved ones.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 01:04:06 PM by habanero »

rockstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4077 on: October 16, 2020, 01:27:02 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4078 on: October 16, 2020, 02:02:03 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.

Doesn't seem frightening to me, at all, just realistic. The CDC says that, under normal circumstances, close to 8K people in the US die every day. That doesn't seem any more upsetting to me than the fact that ~10K babies are born each day. Life and death are both completely natural. When someone in my family or a close friend dies, I'm, of course, sad, but I can't say that I've ever worried too much about the fact that 400K+ people die from smoking cigarettes, every year. If I know them, I care. If not, they're just a number on a page.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4079 on: October 16, 2020, 02:06:22 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.

It's a victimless crime.  Like punching someone in the dark.

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4080 on: October 16, 2020, 02:30:38 PM »
In the western world somewhere between 0.6% and 1% of the population die every year from something. I find it immensely shallow to pretend this is anything people care about at all unless its one own's beloved ones.

It's not an doesn't have to be an either-or.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4081 on: October 16, 2020, 03:09:14 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.
The US has about 2.800.000 deaths per year. If we assume you sleep on average 7 hour per day you are left with 6205 hours per year or about 22 million seconds to mourn and care deeply. That gives you bit less than 8 seconds to mourn and deeply care about every life lost in the US, given all lives are equal and all.

Get real.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 03:11:17 PM by habanero »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4082 on: October 16, 2020, 03:23:14 PM »
What I have problems with is how all this is justified in gen pop. Now all of a sudden people pretend to have this newfound great care for the at-risk population. If you are not in an at-risk group due to age or underlying health problems Covid-19 isn't really that dangerous - probably less so than life itself.

Don't most people care for their elderly parents or grandparents?
I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to. And they are the ones who regularily die (being old and all). We went to see my parents in June and considered not going as we live in the capital (one of the local hotspots by our local standards) and they are old and my dad's overall health not the best. I briefly mentioned that to my mom and she would have none of that and we should most def come. That's their call, I guess.

In the western world somewhere between 0.6% and 1% of the population die every year from something. I find it immensely shallow to pretend this is anything people care about at all unless its one own's beloved ones.

That's really sad. Besides our parents, husband and I have lots of aunts and uncles older than 60, and lots of friends between 60 and 90 years old.  There are loads of elderly people in my community who I don't know, but they also have loved ones and contribute to their community and the economy.

Yes, everyone dies, but a COVID death is usually in isolation, with no human contact beyond frightened, exhausted clinicians behind several layers of PPE, after days or weeks of painful intubation and organ failure. Contrast that with my three older relatives and two friends who died of non-COVID causes in the last 6 months: they were able to receive hospice care, and all were surrounded by family.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 03:39:34 PM by OtherJen »

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4083 on: October 16, 2020, 03:25:36 PM »

I care for mine and my girlfriends parents, they are all 70+ and mine are 80+. The rest I don't know and hence I don't really care and don't pretend to.
This is a frightening attitude. It's one that I knew that some people held, but not one I knew they would admit to.
The US has about 2.800.000 deaths per year. If we assume you sleep on average 7 hour per day you are left with 6205 hours per year or about 22 million seconds to mourn and care deeply. That gives you bit less than 8 seconds to mourn and deeply care about every life lost in the US, given all lives are equal and all.

Get real.

So, I think that I understand your point habanero.  The human brain doesn't really process big numbers well.  I can hear 2.8 million deaths, but it just doesn't process in my brain in a way that makes me feel deeply sad/mourn.

That said, understanding what it's like to lose a best friend I'm able to care about the kind of impact that those imply for others.  So while I may not care for millions of dead people I don't know as much as say . . . my mom or dad, I do care that these deaths are happening because I know that they are someone's moms and dads.  I certainly am interested in minimizing the number.

I think that what's causing some friction in the responses is that you're trying to express the first concept, but failing to express the second.  This kinda makes you sound like a sociopath.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4084 on: October 16, 2020, 04:42:29 PM »
It does sound cold.   There's a lot of evidence to support habanero's position though.

For example, consider the long term care homes in Ontario.     A huge fraction of the sars-cov2 deaths in the spring occurred in our long term care homes.   The public was outraged and the federal government volunteered the medical arm of the military to assist.

Guess what?   Our long term homes sucked back in 80's when my grandmother, who had Alzheimer's disease and an aggressive personality had to live in one.    They were terrible.   Nobody cared enough to fix things over the subsequent 30 years.

Now it's 3 months later in the pandemic and what happened to the outrage?     People care when it's in their face or when it's happening to their relatives, but not so much when it's some random senior citizens.

rockstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4085 on: October 16, 2020, 05:05:35 PM »
It does sound cold.   There's a lot of evidence to support habanero's position though.

You’re right and I don’t dispute that s/he feels that way, or that other people do also. However, when you choose to surround yourself with good people who DO care about others, it can be jarring (and disgusting) to remember that quite a lot of people care only for themselves.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4086 on: October 16, 2020, 06:46:05 PM »
Yeah, shutting bars down is not "at any cost". That is a hyperbolic statement at best. Other people's lives are worth more than our convenience. That being said, there is a middle ground that can sustain the economy in some fashion through the potential fall wave. A lot of it is wearing a mask and washing hands. The other part is not hanging out indoors with random strangers.

This was kind of my point, in a way. Some context: Where I live we have been very good at striking this balance for one reason or another - a fairly compliant population, high level of trust in government, demographics and maybe just some sheer luck. As of now we have 22 in hospitals of which 5 in ICU of which 2 on a ventilator. So it's a level of strain on the health system that's barely measurable and it has been like this since the march/april peak died out due to the measures implemented. Death toll is 278. Population bit over 5 mio in the country and measured in covid-19 deaths per capita we rank at 100-something in the world. And btw we do count every single one so the number is accurate give or take a very small handful. Unemployment is still higher than pre-Covid, but way, way down from the peak and by historical standards there is nothing special about the current rate. For most people life is fairly normal, but someone working in (or used to) working in hospitality, airlines or culture is probably gonna disagree with that statement.

With no measures or a non-compliant population etc the numbers would of course be higher, potentially by very, very much - that's not really debatable. But even with these - so far - very low number there is still an underlying anxiety in the population, a sense that every death from Covid-19 is a some major news item (it gets flashed in the news when it happens) and while we have the usual camps of laxing measures / keeping as is / tightening further the general consensus is that our politicians and other bodies of government have done a pretty good job so far while some details of this and that can of course be debated if should be more so or less so or skipped or if they should have done this instead of that.

If we continue at this pace for the rest of the year Covid-19 is probably gonna be among least common cause of death in the country for which there is any statistics apart from traffic deaths, of which we have very few as well. Still, even with these, on an international scale, stupid low numbers this is still seen as health risk numero uno. It isn't, it hasn't been but it could probably have been.

If we look at who has actually died from covid-19, 65% are aged 80+. If now "lives lost" has been introduced as the holy metric and what should guide society as a whole one at least has to be consistent and should also apply to other sides of life. I would for example assume that by very simple, non-invading measures like good hygiene, not sending children to school/kindergarden when sick etc a good chunk of annual deaths from the regular flu could be prevented, but it has never been even a topic of discussion despite claiming in the area of 1000 lives per year. And rinse and repeat for pretty much any cause of death that could have been prevented or at least delayed by a few years if this or that measure was taken. But people won't do that and when Covid-19 I guess everything will be back to normal and noone bar friends and family will really care when someone dies (at old age).

Humans are pretty bad at rationally assessing risks. And I don't buy it when pretty much everyone is running around claiming a sudden and great overall care for the elderly, chronically sick etc. Because it wasn't there before and I don't think it will be there afterwards when life returns to normal. If it was there to start with, quite a few things would be different.

And yes, of course inhaling a toxic substance is your own choice as opposed to getting a virus from some random person. But so is living a life that puts you in an at-risk-zone for a lot of nasty stuff including Covid-19. So if "lives" is the new currency, then it should apply elsewhere than the field of Covid-19. There are tons of lives to be saved or prolonged with much less invasive measures than we are currently seeing. Most "early" deaths come from lifestyle choices. Even these days with Covid-19 in the equation.

I agree that for your country COVID-19 seems to be a minor issue. Every geographic location is somewhat different in their risk and reasonable measures for a given risk.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4087 on: October 17, 2020, 06:37:14 AM »
I certainly am interested in minimizing the number.

So are most people I would assume. I, for one, do not disagree with you on that, but it also has to be balanced against other factors in a society. In normal circumstances any society accepts that people die from something, even if those deaths could have been avoided or at least delayed if you really wanted to, but that would probably come with side effects you don't want - like lack of freedom for the individual. Our health authorities has openly stated that all the usual measures of cost/benefit in health has been thrown overboard now and also point out the problem that the definition of "health" has become very one-dimensional and the side effects of a prolonged situation can easily be far worse than the pandemic itself given how well it has been contained here. It is, however partly the winner's curse. Measures are deemed too harsh partly because they have been so successful. It's hard to know the outcome if you had loosened up or one thing or the other. The complete package was remarkably effective, but it's harder to know what was necessary and what wasn't.

What is new this time is that pretty much everywhere you get close to live coverage of the Covid-19 situation. Even here with very few infected/hospitalized/deaths there is constant newsflashes on number of infected updated several times per day and also when there is a death from covid-19 which happens every few days. I have never seeing anything like that ever before. There was for example one case here a few months ago with an outbreak in a care facility for elderly - think they had 5 covid deaths there over a few weeks. The manager was interviewed and he said something along the lines of it being sad, like any death, but in the same timeframe more than 30 had died in the same facility from other causes. None of which made the news in any way of course.

We actually have significantly  fewer deaths than usual this year. This is due to very few from Covid-19, and the social distancing etc also helps preventing the spread of other germs. Flu season came to a complete halt in mid-march when we did our "lockdown" which was unprecedented over here but very soft compared to what was done around the world. It is telling that even undertakers have to apply for government support as business is slow (which really is more due to not being able to sell the whole big packages around the funeral, but it still has some irony to it).

These days the number of Covid-19-deaths is pretty much the ultimate metric to gauge the success of a society and the metric against everything is measured and for which almost any sacrifice on other fronts can be deemed necessary without really considering cost/benefit. I find this a narrow way of looking at it - the swedes for example has gotten a lot of heat for how they approached this, but the Swedish approach was from the beginning to balance several factors and do "enough" but not too much. This is why they never closed schools for example - schools were deemed too important to close and if keeping schools open resulted in more infections (and by consequence deaths etc) that was a price worth paying in their view. Once you close day care and schools, especially for the youngest, you create a whole new world of problems they wanted to avoid. One can agree or disagree, but it's not like the approach is devoid of any logic or is sheer craziness. And the swedes are pretty compliant  - you don't have to ban stuff, treathen with prosecution or anything - the government urging the population to do this or that is generally sufficient to get the desired result. The wild west it's been portrayed as in the international press is very, very far from reality on the ground.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 07:05:49 AM by habanero »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4088 on: October 17, 2020, 08:28:07 AM »
As stated multiple times, Sweden and the US have very different national ethos. I suspect that Swedish society doesn't worship selfishness in the disguise of "freedom" and "personal rights."

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4089 on: October 17, 2020, 10:52:54 AM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4090 on: October 17, 2020, 11:36:30 AM »
Are you trying to say that the families of and the elderly themselves dying from COVID should be grateful and view a ineptly managed pandemic as a mercy killing

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4091 on: October 17, 2020, 11:48:57 AM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4092 on: October 17, 2020, 12:25:40 PM »
Are you trying to say that the families of and the elderly themselves dying from COVID should be grateful and view a ineptly managed pandemic as a mercy killing

Not at all. Only stating my personal preference. YMMV.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4093 on: October 17, 2020, 12:30:26 PM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Yeah, I suspect you're right, Steve. I guess not many people are actually choosing to get Covid. If I or one of my close family members were terminally ill and suffering, I sure would be grateful for anything that sped things up, even if it wasn't an actual choice we got to make.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4094 on: October 17, 2020, 01:07:04 PM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Yeah, I suspect you're right, Steve. I guess not many people are actually choosing to get Covid. If I or one of my close family members were terminally ill and suffering, I sure would be grateful for anything that sped things up, even if it wasn't an actual choice we got to make.

They’d be dying in isolation, without loved ones or normal hospice care. That’s not a good death.

NotJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4095 on: October 17, 2020, 01:34:44 PM »
Wonder how many elderly people suffering from long-term illnesses have been killed relatively quickly, this year, by Covid-19? Given the choice of dying slowly from cancer or dementia, or dying in just a week or two from Covid. I know, for sure, which one I'd choose.

I suspect it's very different when you have a choice.

Yeah, I suspect you're right, Steve. I guess not many people are actually choosing to get Covid. If I or one of my close family members were terminally ill and suffering, I sure would be grateful for anything that sped things up, even if it wasn't an actual choice we got to make.

They’d be dying in isolation, without loved ones or normal hospice care. That’s not a good death.

Not to mention the risk of spreading it to others before you get to isolation.  I'm all for a speedy death if that's your choice, but not at the expense of others.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4096 on: October 17, 2020, 07:04:04 PM »
Yeah. It's not like you can just pass away in your sleep. You feel like you are slowly suffocating from the inability to oxygenate. You become more and more tachypneic as your lungs fill with fluid. Eventually you are either intubated or placed on a terminal opiate drip (to slow down your breathing and sedate you since the agonal gasping is usually a bit much). Would you still choose that route? Remember we may not be able to make that decision until it gets time to intubate, because we wouldn't want to end your life for a mild or moderate, but recoverable, illness.
 
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 07:07:45 PM by Abe »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4097 on: October 17, 2020, 07:07:32 PM »
Speaking as a HCW who has been with positive patients as they prepare for death and through death, it’s not a death to be envied. Even the HCW are restricted in how much time they can spend with you, and the precious few moments you will have that other human near you they're essentially in a space suit.  Even for those who aren’t suffering terribly at the end (lots do, if they’re conscious) it’s a cold way to go.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4098 on: October 17, 2020, 08:12:08 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4099 on: October 17, 2020, 09:29:15 PM »
Thanks for the HCWs' perspective on dying by covid. Guess I won't choose that way to die, assuming I get a choice. It doesn't sound very pleasant. I just thought it would be quicker and, therefore, better than suffering for a long time from something like cancer. Having seen people I love suffer, for months and months, from terminal cancer, I've come to believe strongly that we should all have a clear, legal right to end our lives, at any time, for basically any reason. Aside from people who are clearly temporarily depressed or crazy or whatever, all of us should be able to get a prescription for some pills we can take to end our lives when we are ready to die. I just can't imagine suffering for a long time, knowing that at the end I was just going to die anyway.

I agree with you. The barriers to a death with dignity are too high and arbitrary, specifically with regards to length of time left. Yes there is a risk of abuse, but I think the suffering that fully competent and sound-minded individuals have to endure for this theoretical risk is unnecessary. 

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!