Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 675266 times)

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4000 on: October 03, 2020, 06:56:12 PM »
Keeping schools closed indefinitely would require a fundamental restructuring of our economy/society, really. It's not a realistic option in the US, for the most part.

-W

Here in Victoria schools have been closed (other than with a few exceptions, and for a few weeks earlier in the year between our lockdowns) for over six months. That will have an obvious effect on children's learning. Particularly those children living in poor households with poor digital literacy. But even putting that aside, putting kids in their bedroom to learn online from their iPads is a very poor substitute in most cases for face to face learning and the environment of a school.

It is also wreaking havoc on university admissions. These are usually determined by performance in final year assessments and exams. Every final year student here in Victoria is going to be granted "special consideration" and their individual circumstances will be taken into account. There will be less weighting on exam marks. Some assessments can't practically go ahead given lockdown.

What this means, no doubt, is that the range of exam/assessment scores will be attenuated and will converge towards the mean, since there's going to be artificial consideration applied. This is not good for stand-out students who will have wanted the opportunity to learn well and perform well in exams (e.g. to get scholarships at university). They will have less opportunity to shine. It's not good all-round and the children are one of the silent casualties of our policies.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4001 on: October 03, 2020, 07:19:54 PM »
Keeping schools closed indefinitely would require a fundamental restructuring of our economy/society, really. It's not a realistic option in the US, for the most part.

-W

Here in Victoria schools have been closed (other than with a few exceptions, and for a few weeks earlier in the year between our lockdowns) for over six months. That will have an obvious effect on children's learning. Particularly those children living in poor households with poor digital literacy. But even putting that aside, putting kids in their bedroom to learn online from their iPads is a very poor substitute in most cases for face to face learning and the environment of a school.

It is also wreaking havoc on university admissions. These are usually determined by performance in final year assessments and exams. Every final year student here in Victoria is going to be granted "special consideration" and their individual circumstances will be taken into account. There will be less weighting on exam marks. Some assessments can't practically go ahead given lockdown.

What this means, no doubt, is that the range of exam/assessment scores will be attenuated and will converge towards the mean, since there's going to be artificial consideration applied. This is not good for stand-out students who will have wanted the opportunity to learn well and perform well in exams (e.g. to get scholarships at university). They will have less opportunity to shine. It's not good all-round and the children are one of the silent casualties of our policies.

Yep.  The bulk of kids are getting screwed over big time.  The children of the affluent go to private schools.  They're actually in school with significant safety measures.  Their parents are able to work.  This isn't going to affect them so much. 

The public schools are closed. A good sized minority of those kids aren't even showing to the digital sessions .Any bets on what their economic futures will look like as a group?

Edubb20

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4002 on: October 03, 2020, 07:35:31 PM »

Childcare isn't a real crisis. It's a symptom.
In-person schooling isn't a real crisis. It's a symptom.
Wealth inequality is a real crisis.
If the working class could survive off of a single income we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Public schools are childcare for families who can't afford to live on a single income, which is most families at this time. The current system is more product of wealth inequality than it is actual education.I'm a firm believer that 6 hour days, 25-30 students to a classroom, is one of the worst teaching the average child. An ipad likely isn't that much worse, particularly for those who have parent at home.Hope someday, post covid, to see a 3 hour school day, increased trade schooling at the 9-12 level and the complete destruction and reinvention of the university system.

... I'm completely aware that my post has zero practical solutions for someone who has to figure how to get their kid taken care of or educated right now, but i do think we need to zoom out and remember how we got here.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4003 on: October 03, 2020, 07:44:17 PM »
I don't agree with any of that. I went to a public school and really enjoyed the 6 hours of instruction and 3-4 hours of homework each day that I did. Had nothing to do with parental wealth - my parents paid nothing for my tuition. A 3 hour school day would have stunted my educational and intellectual development. The destruction of the university system would have prevented me (again, paying nil fees upfront) from studying a degree which got me a good job out of school. Not all of us want to do trades. Some of us just want to do well in school and then study a professional degree.

Perhaps for the ordinary student, you'd be better off with short school days, emphasis on non-intellectual trades, and an overhaul of the system. But it would be awful for the bright students.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4004 on: October 04, 2020, 07:14:53 AM »
I don't agree with any of that. I went to a public school and really enjoyed the 6 hours of instruction and 3-4 hours of homework each day that I did. Had nothing to do with parental wealth - my parents paid nothing for my tuition. A 3 hour school day would have stunted my educational and intellectual development. The destruction of the university system would have prevented me (again, paying nil fees upfront) from studying a degree which got me a good job out of school. Not all of us want to do trades. Some of us just want to do well in school and then study a professional degree.

Perhaps for the ordinary student, you'd be better off with short school days, emphasis on non-intellectual trades, and an overhaul of the system. But it would be awful for the bright students.

The really bright kids I've known tend to be bright because they're motivated to learn on their own without much instruction.  Of course, some instruction in school helps to force them to pick up topics they're not naturally interested in to become better rounded . . . but they're likely to be just fine doing distance ed type stuff.

You mention that your parents wealth didn't play a role in your learning . . . and this seems unlikely to me.  I grew up in a very poor community.  Several of my elementary school friend came home each night after school, picked up their infant siblings, changed their diapers, and made themselves dinner most nights.  Mom and dad were working and didn't get home until 6 or 7.  It's important not to forget the less obvious advantages that having wealthy parents give you.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4005 on: October 04, 2020, 08:05:35 AM »
I don't agree with any of that. I went to a public school and really enjoyed the 6 hours of instruction and 3-4 hours of homework each day that I did. Had nothing to do with parental wealth - my parents paid nothing for my tuition. A 3 hour school day would have stunted my educational and intellectual development. The destruction of the university system would have prevented me (again, paying nil fees upfront) from studying a degree which got me a good job out of school. Not all of us want to do trades. Some of us just want to do well in school and then study a professional degree.

Perhaps for the ordinary student, you'd be better off with short school days, emphasis on non-intellectual trades, and an overhaul of the system. But it would be awful for the bright students.


The really bright kids I've known tend to be bright because they're motivated to learn on their own without much instruction.  Of course, some instruction in school helps to force them to pick up topics they're not naturally interested in to become better rounded . . . but they're likely to be just fine doing distance ed type stuff.

You mention that your parents wealth didn't play a role in your learning . . . and this seems unlikely to me.  I grew up in a very poor community.  Several of my elementary school friend came home each night after school, picked up their infant siblings, changed their diapers, and made themselves dinner most nights.  Mom and dad were working and didn't get home until 6 or 7.  It's important not to forget the less obvious advantages that having wealthy parents give you.
Agree. My parents were teachers, and they were quite clear that the bright kids would be OK whatever schooling they had, it was the average to below average kids that needed the leg up.  And of course these days money substitutes for brains, all too often.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4006 on: October 04, 2020, 09:37:00 AM »
I don't agree with any of that. I went to a public school and really enjoyed the 6 hours of instruction and 3-4 hours of homework each day that I did. Had nothing to do with parental wealth - my parents paid nothing for my tuition. A 3 hour school day would have stunted my educational and intellectual development. The destruction of the university system would have prevented me (again, paying nil fees upfront) from studying a degree which got me a good job out of school. Not all of us want to do trades. Some of us just want to do well in school and then study a professional degree.

Perhaps for the ordinary student, you'd be better off with short school days, emphasis on non-intellectual trades, and an overhaul of the system. But it would be awful for the bright students.

The really bright kids I've known tend to be bright because they're motivated to learn on their own without much instruction.  Of course, some instruction in school helps to force them to pick up topics they're not naturally interested in to become better rounded . . . but they're likely to be just fine doing distance ed type stuff.

You mention that your parents wealth didn't play a role in your learning . . . and this seems unlikely to me.  I grew up in a very poor community.  Several of my elementary school friend came home each night after school, picked up their infant siblings, changed their diapers, and made themselves dinner most nights.  Mom and dad were working and didn't get home until 6 or 7.  It's important not to forget the less obvious advantages that having wealthy parents give you.

As you said, instruction in school can make a bright child extend his or her learning, and in particular, having a learning environment (best done in person) consisting of other bright peers is likely to spur a bright child's motivation. Streaming has been shown to help bright students quite a bit. The reason streaming is controversial is that it harms below-average students in the process.

The bright senior students in Victoria are being done a particular kind of disservice because the attenuation of everyone's exam marks (plus the lack of face-to-face teaching which must inevitably impinge on their exam study and exam prep) will, like I said, give students less chance/opportunity to shine. That means it will be harder for them to achieve scholarships and distinctions which can have financial consequences.

Also, on your last point, my parents were not wealthy. They are now, but when I was 5, or 10, or 15, they were anything but. I went to public schools all the way through, my parents spent nothing on school fees or tuition, and in fact I stayed home alone every afternoon until dinnertime since my parents were both working. The parental "privilege" that I got had little to do with money: rather, it was that my parents read to me; took me to the library every single week; and kept me healthy so that I could focus on school. That did not take "wealth" to achieve, only parental prudence.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4007 on: October 04, 2020, 09:53:34 AM »
... I'm completely aware that my post has zero practical solutions for someone who has to figure how to get their kid taken care of or educated right now

Yes, that was my point. You might not think in person school as currently configured is the best thing, but it's a hell of a lot better than what amounts to no school at all for the bottom half of the income distribution in the US. Reconfiguring our entire economy so that parents can afford more time for their kids is a great goal. It's also not helpful right now. Keeping the (even if you think it's terribly flawed) primary education system functioning at least for elementary aged kids in person should be a primary goal right now.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4008 on: October 04, 2020, 12:26:53 PM »
Also, on your last point, my parents were not wealthy. They are now, but when I was 5, or 10, or 15, they were anything but. I went to public schools all the way through, my parents spent nothing on school fees or tuition, and in fact I stayed home alone every afternoon until dinnertime since my parents were both working. The parental "privilege" that I got had little to do with money: rather, it was that my parents read to me; took me to the library every single week; and kept me healthy so that I could focus on school. That did not take "wealth" to achieve, only parental prudence.

Bloop, I didn't/don't know your parents or their financial situation at any point in their lives.  So if you say they weren't wealthy then I'm forced to take your word for it.  Good for them for doing what they could to help you get ahead!

But the 'parental prudence' you're talking about is very difficult for many poor families.  It's hard to read to your kid each night when you work nights and have four or five kids, it's hard to take your kid to the library on the weekend when you work weekends, it's hard to keep a kid healthy when you've got little money and time for home made meals/sports programs, it's hard to help a kid focus on school when you live in a bad/noisy neighbourhood and don't have the cash to move or when you rely on your kids to do things like child care for their siblings.

If you grew up poor, then I'm surprised you are arguing that none of this is a big deal.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4009 on: October 04, 2020, 04:08:18 PM »
I would say not having four or five kids (if you don't have the time/resources to devote to them) is part of parental prudence.

I wouldn't say I grew up "poor" - I feel my parents started off working class and ended up upper-middle class.

I'm also not saying money doesn't matter at all. I'm saying it doesn't necessarily matter, since libraries, books, public schools and standardised testing are all free. You put it on me that my parents were wealthy, so I made the inverse point. But that doesn't mean that I am saying that as a whole money doesn't matter.

My initial point was that our lockdowns are affecting both poor children (due to the digital divide) and bright children (due to the lack of dedicated teaching resources) and of course there is some overlap between those two groups but there is also plenty of non-overlap.

rockstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4010 on: October 04, 2020, 04:46:37 PM »
I would say not having four or five kids (if you don't have the time/resources to devote to them) is part of parental prudence.

And I would say it’s part of privilege. Lots of low income parents don’t have the luxury of affording birth control, or the education and knowledge to do any family planning.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4011 on: October 04, 2020, 04:50:58 PM »
I would say not having four or five kids (if you don't have the time/resources to devote to them) is part of parental prudence.

And I would say it’s part of privilege. Lots of low income parents don’t have the luxury of affording birth control, or the education and knowledge to do any family planning.

Condoms aren't very expensive...   can you expand on the cost thing?      On the surface it doesn't seem very hard to understand that if you're having trouble with the costs of 1 kid then you shouldn't have more.

rockstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4012 on: October 04, 2020, 05:10:25 PM »
I would say not having four or five kids (if you don't have the time/resources to devote to them) is part of parental prudence.

And I would say it’s part of privilege. Lots of low income parents don’t have the luxury of affording birth control, or the education and knowledge to do any family planning.

Condoms aren't very expensive...   can you expand on the cost thing?      On the surface it doesn't seem very hard to understand that if you're having trouble with the costs of 1 kid then you shouldn't have more.
I’m going to assume this is a good faith question, but there are several factors. Many men hate condoms and don’t/won’t use them. Family planning is not a concept for a lot of uneducated folks, so they don’t stop to discuss whether they should bring a child into the family, they just don’t use any protection. Birth control pills are often not covered by insurance, or low income folks don’t have insurance so that’s often not an option. If your parents had you young, you’re statistically likely to also start having children quite young and teenagers don’t usually see those consequences coming because they have teenage brains which aren’t fully developed. And so on and so forth. Our country has generally done a terrible job at sex Ed and family planning in school (abstinence only being still taught in many schools - highly ineffective), and so the problems compound.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4013 on: October 04, 2020, 05:26:26 PM »
I would say not having four or five kids (if you don't have the time/resources to devote to them) is part of parental prudence.

And I would say it’s part of privilege. Lots of low income parents don’t have the luxury of affording birth control, or the education and knowledge to do any family planning.

Condoms aren't very expensive...   can you expand on the cost thing?      On the surface it doesn't seem very hard to understand that if you're having trouble with the costs of 1 kid then you shouldn't have more.
I’m going to assume this is a good faith question, but there are several factors. Many men hate condoms and don’t/won’t use them. Family planning is not a concept for a lot of uneducated folks, so they don’t stop to discuss whether they should bring a child into the family, they just don’t use any protection. Birth control pills are often not covered by insurance, or low income folks don’t have insurance so that’s often not an option. If your parents had you young, you’re statistically likely to also start having children quite young and teenagers don’t usually see those consequences coming because they have teenage brains which aren’t fully developed. And so on and so forth. Our country has generally done a terrible job at sex Ed and family planning in school (abstinence only being still taught in many schools - highly ineffective), and so the problems compound.

You're also responding to a Canadian poster. The right to birth control is still in question here in the USA.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4014 on: October 04, 2020, 05:29:14 PM »
"Hating condoms" is not really an excuse, though, is it? Unless you're going to say that impulse control/ability to communicate about sex entails some form of "privilege", which to me really stretches the definition of privilege.

Likewise the lack of discussion of whether one should bring a child into the family.


middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4015 on: October 04, 2020, 06:27:11 PM »
...

My initial point was that our lockdowns are affecting both poor children (due to the digital divide) and bright children (due to the lack of dedicated teaching resources) and of course there is some overlap between those two groups but there is also plenty of non-overlap.

I agree with half of this statement.  But only the part about the digital divide.  I will also add that in Victoria, the government has given out dongles and devices to thousands of disadvantaged kids who didn't have access to them.  That doesn't mean they are now suddenly a digital native and have no disadvantage, but it does go some way to helping with the divide.

As for the part about high flyers in year 12 not being recognised, and not having the dedicated teaching resources that they would normally get, I can only assume it is a long time since you were in a classroom.  My wife is teaching year 12 Mathematics, with a high flyer in her class.  He is now able to contact her more easily than before, with face to face or screen to screen communication rather than in the past - email, or earlier waiting for a class.  He gets better and faster help for the few questions he does actually have.  He may (or may not) be one of those written up in the paper. 

Ultimately your assumptions are based on your own world views.  I have a number of students who prefer online learning for some of their classes.  I have a number of students who would have dominated a normal classroom who have been much quieter in the online environment, allowing others to get a chance. 

It is just different.  Better for some, worse for others.  One of the most revealing things is that parents can no longer say they were unaware that their kids were hard to get to work, hard to keep focused, and were behind in their literacy or numeracy.  They have seen exactly what their kids are like in class.  Not all of them like it.

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4016 on: October 05, 2020, 02:12:18 AM »
As much as I hate how this pandemic has killed so many people and messed up most people's lives:

My daughter is doing much better in online school than she did in traditional school. She is fairly introverted and I realize now how stressful her giant public school was for her. I knew it was stressful before just from her stories and behavior, but I just didn't know how much better she could feel and achieve. Before the change to online school she was a B/C student. Now she is earning straight A's, and she pulled all of her grades up to A's in the spring once the switch to online school was made. The social stresses and bullying during times like lunch and between classes are non-existent now. The only thing she misses about live school is sports, as far as I can tell.

My son is having a really rough time now. He is very extroverted and loved the social aspects of school. He is making an effort to do his work, but listening to the teachers drone with nothing else happening is boring him to tears. He's really trying to do well, but he tells me daily that he hates it, something I never heard from him before. On the plus side, some of his best friends are not very serious students, so being physically isolated from them has helped him take schoolwork more seriously.

Everyone is different.

soccerluvof4

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4017 on: October 05, 2020, 03:09:34 AM »
As much as I hate how this pandemic has killed so many people and messed up most people's lives:

My daughter is doing much better in online school than she did in traditional school. She is fairly introverted and I realize now how stressful her giant public school was for her. I knew it was stressful before just from her stories and behavior, but I just didn't know how much better she could feel and achieve. Before the change to online school she was a B/C student. Now she is earning straight A's, and she pulled all of her grades up to A's in the spring once the switch to online school was made. The social stresses and bullying during times like lunch and between classes are non-existent now. The only thing she misses about live school is sports, as far as I can tell.

My son is having a really rough time now. He is very extroverted and loved the social aspects of school. He is making an effort to do his work, but listening to the teachers drone with nothing else happening is boring him to tears. He's really trying to do well, but he tells me daily that he hates it, something I never heard from him before. On the plus side, some of his best friends are not very serious students, so being physically isolated from them has helped him take schoolwork more seriously.

Everyone is different.


+1  3 out of 4 are doing well for us online (2 are in College 2 in HS) . What helped matters the most was having going through it in spring, summer off.  schools got a lot more prepared both where I live and where my kids out of state attend school. Our HS kids started in School learning but were in a State (Wisconsin) that is sadly really seeing a rise and they have gone back to virtual after a month in. But as I said its really run well now compared to the first go around. And there in public schools.

I grew up very poor and hardly ever saw my parents. College was never talked about but learning to be a hard work was emphasized as well as discipline and being held accountable. Personally I think parents involvement not matter how busy they are is the biggest factor in at least going on from one level of education to the next. I never wanted to let my parents down because they did what they could to put food on the table and there was a respectful fear there. And the schools were bad to say the least I even got stabbed in the sternum fortunately on the way home from school jumped in an alley. And back then people would have more kids to get more money from the state which is now changed in alot of ways. So in my view there are alot of factors going into it and I have seen plenty of entitled kids with bigger life long problems or different problems as those struggling with money.

On the helmet thing I ride on average 4xs a week and hardly see anyone who doesn't wear one. We always made our kids wear one as well because not only do they add as stated a line of protection from falls which kids do a lot of but at least there more stylish then when we were growing up and looked like wearing a big cue-tip on your head. And kids as you know dont want to look like a dork.

rockstache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4018 on: October 05, 2020, 04:18:57 AM »
"Hating condoms" is not really an excuse, though, is it? Unless you're going to say that impulse control/ability to communicate about sex entails some form of "privilege", which to me really stretches the definition of privilege.

Likewise the lack of discussion of whether one should bring a child into the family.

I can't speak to being a man. As a woman (especially a young one), I have endured a lot of pressure from men about having sex, and not wearing condoms. As an educated young woman, I did not sleep with those jerks. If my parents or teachers had taught me less about the dangers of giving in to such pressures, then I absolutely might have. So yes, education is a privilege and not everyone gets it. I know you're in Australia, so I have no idea what sex ed is like there, but here in many places it doesn't exist. Rumors persist that if you pull out you can't get pregnant, if she doesn't orgasm she can't get pregnant etc. In fact, I once worked with a 24 year old who held these beliefs. I'm not just talking about teens. If Australia is doing better, making condoms and other birth control methods available for free, teaching kids the realities about sex....good for you. We aren't.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4019 on: October 05, 2020, 02:49:41 PM »
"Hating condoms" is not really an excuse, though, is it? Unless you're going to say that impulse control/ability to communicate about sex entails some form of "privilege", which to me really stretches the definition of privilege.

Likewise the lack of discussion of whether one should bring a child into the family.

I can't speak to being a man. As a woman (especially a young one), I have endured a lot of pressure from men about having sex, and not wearing condoms. As an educated young woman, I did not sleep with those jerks. If my parents or teachers had taught me less about the dangers of giving in to such pressures, then I absolutely might have. So yes, education is a privilege and not everyone gets it. I know you're in Australia, so I have no idea what sex ed is like there, but here in many places it doesn't exist. Rumors persist that if you pull out you can't get pregnant, if she doesn't orgasm she can't get pregnant etc. In fact, I once worked with a 24 year old who held these beliefs. I'm not just talking about teens. If Australia is doing better, making condoms and other birth control methods available for free, teaching kids the realities about sex....good for you. We aren't.

I know condoms suck.   But 50 cents for a condom is better than an unwanted child.    And I know from personal experience that birth control pills have unpleasant side effects for some women.

And... what about AIDS and other diseases?     

I can see your point for more expensive contraception  like birth control pills.    And vasectomies are really only a good option for older men.    I suppose both require either medical insurance or substantial out of pocket expenses in the US?

These sound like general problems with society, not a case of privilege.    Everyone should have some basic sex ed and access to birth control.    AIDS is no joke even with modern treatments.   It's way cheaper to avoid unwanted pregnancies than it is to deal with later.    Same with disease, prevention is less expensive than treatment.

I think it's sad if these things are a privilege for most Americans, they should just be part of life.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4020 on: October 05, 2020, 02:56:12 PM »
You have to remember that as a Canadian you're used to all these common sense little bits of good governance being in place. ( That's what happens when your country isn't deluged with paranoid delusions of one day needing to overthrow the democratically elected government with some rifles and hand guns.)  We also have a radically lower number of abortions than the US.  The two go hand in hand.

There's a surprising amount of influence that religious groups have in the US, particularly the southern states.  This influence has crept into sex education.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4021 on: October 05, 2020, 03:58:51 PM »
You have to remember that as a Canadian you're used to all these common sense little bits of good governance being in place. ( That's what happens when your country isn't deluged with paranoid delusions of one day needing to overthrow the democratically elected government with some rifles and hand guns.)  We also have a radically lower number of abortions than the US.  The two go hand in hand.

There's a surprising amount of influence that religious groups have in the US, particularly the southern states.  This influence has crept into sex education.

In an ideal world abortions would be backup to failure of birth control, failure of the morning-after pill, or for medical reasons.  Good birth control means fewer abortions.  Babies should not be punishment for having sex.  Babies should be wanted.  My sample size is small, but every "had to get married"  marriage I know of has ended in divorce.  I know of divorces in my parents'generation, and it was a lot harder when you could only get an "at fault" divorce.  People did, even if the couple had to arrange for the PI to testify.

Even when a married couple wants a baby, they should have some control over when and how many.  Which is the whole point of planned parenthood.

Condoms are old tech, used long before anyone on the forums were born.  But they are better than they used to be.

I'll get off my soap box now.   ;-)

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4022 on: October 05, 2020, 06:04:50 PM »
I also grew up very poor.  But I was smart.  And my parents were poor, but smart.  My dad read a lot of books, whatever he could get his hand on.  Watched PBS.  My mom was pretty smart too.  And they worked hard.  That was a thing.  I loved school.  I loved to read.  (This was not true of all my siblings though.)

On the birth control thing...I'm the 8th of 9 children, and we were Catholic, so there's that.  The babies stopped coming twice ... when my father's first wife died during a hysterectomy.  (Then he got a vasectomy.) 

You know, even growing up poor though, I see kids in my sons' classes.  And they are way worse off than we were.  We had a roof, and extended family, and at least a garden.  I know kids now that are homeless.  Live in cars.  Live in an apartment but don't have a bed (sleep on the floor).  Don't get 3 meals unless at school.  Do not speak English.  Have parents who do not speak English.  That's a whole other level of poor.  They get kicked out of zoom?  Nothing we can do about it, and their parents can't do it either.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4023 on: October 05, 2020, 06:43:56 PM »
"Hating condoms" is not really an excuse, though, is it? Unless you're going to say that impulse control/ability to communicate about sex entails some form of "privilege", which to me really stretches the definition of privilege.

Likewise the lack of discussion of whether one should bring a child into the family.

I can't speak to being a man. As a woman (especially a young one), I have endured a lot of pressure from men about having sex, and not wearing condoms. As an educated young woman, I did not sleep with those jerks. If my parents or teachers had taught me less about the dangers of giving in to such pressures, then I absolutely might have. So yes, education is a privilege and not everyone gets it. I know you're in Australia, so I have no idea what sex ed is like there, but here in many places it doesn't exist. Rumors persist that if you pull out you can't get pregnant, if she doesn't orgasm she can't get pregnant etc. In fact, I once worked with a 24 year old who held these beliefs. I'm not just talking about teens. If Australia is doing better, making condoms and other birth control methods available for free, teaching kids the realities about sex....good for you. We aren't.

I know condoms suck.   But 50 cents for a condom is better than an unwanted child.    And I know from personal experience that birth control pills have unpleasant side effects for some women.

And... what about AIDS and other diseases?     

I can see your point for more expensive contraception  like birth control pills.    And vasectomies are really only a good option for older men.    I suppose both require either medical insurance or substantial out of pocket expenses in the US?

These sound like general problems with society, not a case of privilege.    Everyone should have some basic sex ed and access to birth control.    AIDS is no joke even with modern treatments.   It's way cheaper to avoid unwanted pregnancies than it is to deal with later.    Same with disease, prevention is less expensive than treatment.

I think it's sad if these things are a privilege for most Americans, they should just be part of life.

It's kind of funny the caricature people have of America. I live in a rural, very pro-Trump, very religious area of the nation. Condoms are certainly completely accessible. I've never heard of anyone getting any push back on getting birth control, even at a young age. I suppose you could say there's a cost thing if you don't have insurance, but that's surely not the case for condoms. In terms of education, coincidentally (and again, remember my area) I actually looked at the sex education curriculum in a public high school literally today, and not only did it talk about all kinds of informative stuff such as protection, abortion (and no, not to trash it), and so on, and it even talked about gender identity and a variety of topics. I mean, sure, if you're homeschooled or something, education could potentially be an issue, but again, it's funny to see how people think all of this craziness is happening in America or that being able to family plan is a privileged thing in America due to these reasons....I have seen nothing of the sort.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4024 on: October 05, 2020, 06:55:53 PM »
I also grew up very poor.  But I was smart.  And my parents were poor, but smart.  My dad read a lot of books, whatever he could get his hand on.  Watched PBS.  My mom was pretty smart too.  And they worked hard.  That was a thing.  I loved school.  I loved to read.  (This was not true of all my siblings though.)

On the birth control thing...I'm the 8th of 9 children, and we were Catholic, so there's that.  The babies stopped coming twice ... when my father's first wife died during a hysterectomy.  (Then he got a vasectomy.) 

You know, even growing up poor though, I see kids in my sons' classes.  And they are way worse off than we were.  We had a roof, and extended family, and at least a garden.  I know kids now that are homeless.  Live in cars.  Live in an apartment but don't have a bed (sleep on the floor).  Don't get 3 meals unless at school.  Do not speak English.  Have parents who do not speak English.  That's a whole other level of poor.  They get kicked out of zoom?  Nothing we can do about it, and their parents can't do it either.

This exactly. A lot of people like to believe they grew up poor. But there’s poor, and then there’s really poor.

I grew up poor. But I’m white. And I was an only child. My parents, though working class, poured a lot of time, belief, and what resources they had into making sure I had the best shot I could have. My mom read to me every night, which alone probably contributed to my learning to read myself before I got to kindergarten. She brought me to the library for my first library card when I was four. I went to public school, but she was focused on making sure she paid attention to whether I was learning, and went to parent teacher conferences to make sure she got regular feedback from my teachers.

That is enormous, enormous privilege.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4025 on: October 05, 2020, 07:16:03 PM »
I also grew up very poor.  But I was smart.  And my parents were poor, but smart.  My dad read a lot of books, whatever he could get his hand on.  Watched PBS.  My mom was pretty smart too.  And they worked hard.  That was a thing.  I loved school.  I loved to read.  (This was not true of all my siblings though.)

On the birth control thing...I'm the 8th of 9 children, and we were Catholic, so there's that.  The babies stopped coming twice ... when my father's first wife died during a hysterectomy.  (Then he got a vasectomy.) 

You know, even growing up poor though, I see kids in my sons' classes.  And they are way worse off than we were.  We had a roof, and extended family, and at least a garden.  I know kids now that are homeless.  Live in cars.  Live in an apartment but don't have a bed (sleep on the floor).  Don't get 3 meals unless at school.  Do not speak English.  Have parents who do not speak English.  That's a whole other level of poor.  They get kicked out of zoom?  Nothing we can do about it, and their parents can't do it either.

This exactly. A lot of people like to believe they grew up poor. But there’s poor, and then there’s really poor.

I grew up poor. But I’m white. And I was an only child. My parents, though working class, poured a lot of time, belief, and what resources they had into making sure I had the best shot I could have. My mom read to me every night, which alone probably contributed to my learning to read myself before I got to kindergarten. She brought me to the library for my first library card when I was four. I went to public school, but she was focused on making sure she paid attention to whether I was learning, and went to parent teacher conferences to make sure she got regular feedback from my teachers.

That is enormous, enormous privilege.

+1 There is a steep drop off of what is poor and manageable versus what is poor and almost completely unmanageable (of course the exceptions can do it but most can't). That drop off usually involves being malnourished, not being able to go to the doctor when sick, not having parents around during waking hours/being the babysitter for your siblings, not having a stable place to live (constant fear/reality of being evicted), etc. It's doable to survive that given enough other positive factors, but it's a huge setback.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4026 on: October 05, 2020, 07:16:37 PM »
"Hating condoms" is not really an excuse, though, is it? Unless you're going to say that impulse control/ability to communicate about sex entails some form of "privilege", which to me really stretches the definition of privilege.

Likewise the lack of discussion of whether one should bring a child into the family.

I can't speak to being a man. As a woman (especially a young one), I have endured a lot of pressure from men about having sex, and not wearing condoms. As an educated young woman, I did not sleep with those jerks. If my parents or teachers had taught me less about the dangers of giving in to such pressures, then I absolutely might have. So yes, education is a privilege and not everyone gets it. I know you're in Australia, so I have no idea what sex ed is like there, but here in many places it doesn't exist. Rumors persist that if you pull out you can't get pregnant, if she doesn't orgasm she can't get pregnant etc. In fact, I once worked with a 24 year old who held these beliefs. I'm not just talking about teens. If Australia is doing better, making condoms and other birth control methods available for free, teaching kids the realities about sex....good for you. We aren't.

I can't speak for the female perspective. Here, sex ed is prevalent. It is disappointing to hear that men pressure women to have sex without having a condom but, again, I don't believe that goes to "privilege". Not every societal or interpersonal failing is a matter of privilege.

By the way the "pulling out" method (withdrawal) when combined with the rhythm method (counting days) has an extremely high safety rate when used perfectly. There are some people who can't use both methods in combination - particularly women who have irregular cycles. However if the woman has a regular cycle (and therefore can have a decent chance of knowing her date of ovulation) then the risk of pregnancy is quite low as long as you understand what the risky days are, and as long as you are careful with the withdrawal method (and you don't have a "second go" when there is leftover sperm in the urethra. There is very mixed evidence about whether pre-ejaculate fluid contains any sperm at all.

I've read up on the above studies and also spoken to a friend who does obstetrics and she told me the reason that "pulling out" isn't advocated is because of a lack of discipline on the part of its adherents, not because it's inherently dangerous. Perfect use efficacy of withdrawal + rhythm gets very close to the safety rate of using a condom.

Anyway, I guess you can say that the knowledge of how to Google those things and read scientific paper abstracts is also a form of educational privilege?

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4027 on: October 05, 2020, 07:43:33 PM »

I've read up on the above studies and also spoken to a friend who does obstetrics and she told me the reason that "pulling out" isn't advocated is because of a lack of discipline on the part of its adherents, not because it's inherently dangerous. Perfect use efficacy of withdrawal + rhythm gets very close to the safety rate of using a condom.


I'm old enough to remember pre-pill, preIUD.  The "lack of discipline" (ahem) on the part of certain people was why women took to the pill so happily, despite lots of side effects with the early versions.  Because if we didn't want to get pregnant, we could rely on being super reliable on taking the pill every day and not have to worry about someone else's "lack of discipline".  And of course at that point we weren't worrying about STIs much, because most of them hadn't developed antibiotic resistance yet.  If I were 20 now, it would be condoms and the pill/IUD.

To get back on topic, lack of discipline, generalized, is why I am wearing my N95 mask when I shop.  It gets lots of time to recover between uses, and I trust me more than I trust people who don't wear their mask properly, or associate with more people than they should. My area's numbers are up, so yes I am a bit paranoid.  My age alone is reason to be paranoid.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4028 on: October 05, 2020, 09:45:42 PM »

By the way the "pulling out" method (withdrawal) when combined with the rhythm method (counting days) has an extremely high safety rate when used perfectly. There are some people who can't use both methods in combination - particularly women who have irregular cycles. However if the woman has a regular cycle (and therefore can have a decent chance of knowing her date of ovulation) then the risk of pregnancy is quite low as long as you understand what the risky days are, and as long as you are careful with the withdrawal method (and you don't have a "second go" when there is leftover sperm in the urethra. There is very mixed evidence about whether pre-ejaculate fluid contains any sperm at all.

I've read up on the above studies and also spoken to a friend who does obstetrics and she told me the reason that "pulling out" isn't advocated is because of a lack of discipline on the part of its adherents, not because it's inherently dangerous. Perfect use efficacy of withdrawal + rhythm gets very close to the safety rate of using a condom.


We have always been "disciplined" with our sexual activities, but alas we ended up with 3 rather than our planned 2.  We are happy with 3 (and probably would have wanted more if the first two births were not so traumatic).  The problem is that it doesn't need a very high failure rate for consequences.

* I know that data is not the plural of anecdote but I won't be recommending withdrawal and rhythm methods to my children.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4029 on: October 06, 2020, 05:06:19 AM »

By the way the "pulling out" method (withdrawal) when combined with the rhythm method (counting days) has an extremely high safety rate when used perfectly. There are some people who can't use both methods in combination - particularly women who have irregular cycles. However if the woman has a regular cycle (and therefore can have a decent chance of knowing her date of ovulation) then the risk of pregnancy is quite low as long as you understand what the risky days are, and as long as you are careful with the withdrawal method (and you don't have a "second go" when there is leftover sperm in the urethra. There is very mixed evidence about whether pre-ejaculate fluid contains any sperm at all.

I've read up on the above studies and also spoken to a friend who does obstetrics and she told me the reason that "pulling out" isn't advocated is because of a lack of discipline on the part of its adherents, not because it's inherently dangerous. Perfect use efficacy of withdrawal + rhythm gets very close to the safety rate of using a condom.


We have always been "disciplined" with our sexual activities, but alas we ended up with 3 rather than our planned 2.  We are happy with 3 (and probably would have wanted more if the first two births were not so traumatic).  The problem is that it doesn't need a very high failure rate for consequences.

* I know that data is not the plural of anecdote but I won't be recommending withdrawal and rhythm methods to my children.

This reminds me of the old joke.

What do you call a couple who practice the rhythm method?  Parents.


A method that inspires jokes like this is not as reliable as one might wish.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4030 on: October 06, 2020, 08:14:16 AM »

By the way the "pulling out" method (withdrawal) when combined with the rhythm method (counting days) has an extremely high safety rate when used perfectly. There are some people who can't use both methods in combination - particularly women who have irregular cycles. However if the woman has a regular cycle (and therefore can have a decent chance of knowing her date of ovulation) then the risk of pregnancy is quite low as long as you understand what the risky days are, and as long as you are careful with the withdrawal method (and you don't have a "second go" when there is leftover sperm in the urethra. There is very mixed evidence about whether pre-ejaculate fluid contains any sperm at all.

I've read up on the above studies and also spoken to a friend who does obstetrics and she told me the reason that "pulling out" isn't advocated is because of a lack of discipline on the part of its adherents, not because it's inherently dangerous. Perfect use efficacy of withdrawal + rhythm gets very close to the safety rate of using a condom.


We have always been "disciplined" with our sexual activities, but alas we ended up with 3 rather than our planned 2.  We are happy with 3 (and probably would have wanted more if the first two births were not so traumatic).  The problem is that it doesn't need a very high failure rate for consequences.

* I know that data is not the plural of anecdote but I won't be recommending withdrawal and rhythm methods to my children.

This reminds me of the old joke.

What do you call a couple who practice the rhythm method?  Parents.


A method that inspires jokes like this is not as reliable as one might wish.

My wife and I did the Cathloic marriage prep course.  On the whole it was pretty good and there was a lot of valuable information about getting to know one another, talking about money/finances/future plans, and stuff like that.  Overall it was worth doing.

The recommended birth control method though was not.  It was very old school "pull n'pray" or hope for the best with a calander.  It also contained some questionable comments like "condoms only work 70% of the time" and "the birth control pill will make you sterile".  Ugh.  About half the other couples in the room with me were giggling along with the ridiculousness . . . but sadly that other half . . . they really seemed to believe the lies (and likely all have children now).

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4031 on: October 06, 2020, 08:31:56 AM »

By the way the "pulling out" method (withdrawal) when combined with the rhythm method (counting days) has an extremely high safety rate when used perfectly. There are some people who can't use both methods in combination - particularly women who have irregular cycles. However if the woman has a regular cycle (and therefore can have a decent chance of knowing her date of ovulation) then the risk of pregnancy is quite low as long as you understand what the risky days are, and as long as you are careful with the withdrawal method (and you don't have a "second go" when there is leftover sperm in the urethra. There is very mixed evidence about whether pre-ejaculate fluid contains any sperm at all.

I've read up on the above studies and also spoken to a friend who does obstetrics and she told me the reason that "pulling out" isn't advocated is because of a lack of discipline on the part of its adherents, not because it's inherently dangerous. Perfect use efficacy of withdrawal + rhythm gets very close to the safety rate of using a condom.


We have always been "disciplined" with our sexual activities, but alas we ended up with 3 rather than our planned 2.  We are happy with 3 (and probably would have wanted more if the first two births were not so traumatic).  The problem is that it doesn't need a very high failure rate for consequences.

* I know that data is not the plural of anecdote but I won't be recommending withdrawal and rhythm methods to my children.

This reminds me of the old joke.

What do you call a couple who practice the rhythm method?  Parents.


A method that inspires jokes like this is not as reliable as one might wish.

My wife and I did the Cathloic marriage prep course.  On the whole it was pretty good and there was a lot of valuable information about getting to know one another, talking about money/finances/future plans, and stuff like that.  Overall it was worth doing.

The recommended birth control method though was not.  It was very old school "pull n'pray" or hope for the best with a calander.  It also contained some questionable comments like "condoms only work 70% of the time" and "the birth control pill will make you sterile".  Ugh.  About half the other couples in the room with me were giggling along with the ridiculousness . . . but sadly that other half . . . they really seemed to believe the lies (and likely all have children now).

We did a similar Catholic course. The non-bedroom stuff was great, and we had plenty of time to talk about finances, in-laws (i.e., family of origin), etc. The facilitator was a middle-aged man with a long marriage and a few kids, and he was very relatable and personable.

The family planning section...no. Just no. It was an elderly couple who spent half the time railing about HPV and cervical cancer in teenage girls, and the other half very poorly explaining "natural family planning" and railing against contraception.

I grew up around a lot of very conservative Catholics. It didn't escape my notice that most of the families tended to have at least 5 kids each. One of my friends was kid #5 of 16. So yeah, anecdotally, the natural methods are probably not great after you've had a kid and you're exhausted and have wacky hormones. I certainly wouldn't rely on them.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4032 on: October 06, 2020, 09:00:28 AM »
Americans: Daily deaths (7 day average) have started to level out and are likely due to pick up soon. Another week of data will help confirm, but we're absolutely not out of this. Tens of thousands more deaths before the end of the year and who knows what after. Stay safe.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4033 on: October 06, 2020, 11:04:12 AM »
Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life.

Trump got it and is doing fine.  I hear he might even debate wrestle a bear later because he's feeling so good and strong. 

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4034 on: October 06, 2020, 11:45:08 PM »
Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life.

Trump got it and is doing fine.  I hear he might even debate wrestle a bear later because he's feeling so good and strong. 

A heavy dose of steroids will do that for you.

How bout that drug test now?

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4035 on: October 07, 2020, 05:54:45 AM »
We now have a steroid-addled president and the joint chiefs in quarantine. Uh, can anyone say national security risk?

Is this still #winning? I can’t keep up.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4036 on: October 07, 2020, 06:04:46 AM »
We now have a steroid-addled president and the joint chiefs in quarantine. Uh, can anyone say national security risk?

Is this still #winning? I can’t keep up.

Right? I sure feel safe. [/sarcasm]

SunnyDays

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4037 on: October 07, 2020, 10:36:36 AM »
We now have a steroid-addled president and the joint chiefs in quarantine. Uh, can anyone say national security risk?

Is this still #winning? I can’t keep up.

Is he any less addled without steroids?  And other staff have no influence on him anyway ..........

Travis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4038 on: October 07, 2020, 07:28:17 PM »
My base just had it's first infection since April, all because someone off base had a conversation with one of the locals and one of them wasn't wearing a mask.  And the kids just got to go back to school this week.

Edit: the infected soldier learned he was close to someone who was infected and checked himself into the hospital for testing.  Everyone he's been around the last few days has been contacted and quarantined. Commander is confident his proactive decision kept it from spreading further. School for the kids is still a go.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2020, 04:00:27 AM by Travis »

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4039 on: October 08, 2020, 09:51:34 AM »
My base just had it's first infection since April, all because someone off base had a conversation with one of the locals and one of them wasn't wearing a mask.  And the kids just got to go back to school this week.

Edit: the infected soldier learned he was close to someone who was infected and checked himself into the hospital for testing.  Everyone he's been around the last few days has been contacted and quarantined. Commander is confident his proactive decision kept it from spreading further. School for the kids is still a go.

Love to hear it! Social distancing and masks are great, but the number one thing we can do is isolate and get tested if we think we were exposed.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4040 on: October 10, 2020, 04:03:44 PM »
One of the strongest correlations in Sweden for COVID-19 death was being a male from North Africa/Middle East

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18926-3

Using more reasonable estimates of COVID iFRs, etc., death rate projections change dramatically in numerical modelling

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1.full.pdf

Travel bans/quarantines are not particularly effective at reducing COVID-19 infections

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-72175-4

School closures during lockdown may have actually increased COVID-19 death in the UK

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588

Fascinating study about cross-reactive T cell memory (potential immunity) with COVID-19

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6512/89.full

Sweden has had the lowest increase in COVID cases during Europe's "2nd wave" with one COVID-19 death on October 5th & October 6th and zero COVID-19 deaths on October 7th.

Meanwhile, the largest mask efficacy study (from Denmark) with 6,000 participants was completed, however the authors refuse to release the conclusions.  Wonder why?

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04337541

Morbidly obese Chris Christie was just released from the hospital, making the fatality rate from the White House "super spreader" event so far 0.0

https://www.npr.org/sections/latest-updates-trump-covid-19-results/2020/10/10/922618001/chris-christie-released-from-hospital-a-week-after-seeking-covid-19-treatment

In Iceland, COVID-19 anti-bodies are "long lasting" with an iFR of 0.3%

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116?query=featured_home

« Last Edit: October 10, 2020, 04:14:23 PM by T-Money$ »

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4041 on: October 10, 2020, 05:56:44 PM »
Morbidly obese Chris Christie was just released from the hospital, making the fatality rate from the White House "super spreader" event so far 0.0

That's quite the gish gallop.

What does it mean that Chris Christie was released? Does it mean that the 200k deaths in the US are a hoax? Or that we shouldn't care about an active carrier being in the same room as others because...they'll be fine, especially if they can take $100,000 of drug treatments in a few days? It's no worse than the flu?
« Last Edit: October 10, 2020, 06:24:41 PM by bacchi »

bacchi

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4042 on: October 10, 2020, 06:12:00 PM »
Sweden has had the lowest increase in COVID cases during Europe's "2nd wave" with one COVID-19 death on October 5th & October 6th and zero COVID-19 deaths on October 7th.

Why does everyone keep ignoring Finland? It hasn't had any deaths recently AND it has a mortality rate per million almost 10x lower than Sweden. Same with Norway.

Look, Sweden may turn out to have the correct approach but we don't know that yet. Please stop blowing smoke up our asses and telling us that it's blow. Their mortality rate is awful -- and, no, the "dry tinder" excuse doesn't work because Finland had the same or lower flu mortality rate the last few years (and Finland is slightly older).

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4043 on: October 10, 2020, 06:21:04 PM »
Sweden has had the lowest increase in COVID cases during Europe's "2nd wave" with one COVID-19 death on October 5th & October 6th and zero COVID-19 deaths on October 7th.

Why does everyone keep ignoring Finland? It hasn't had any deaths recently AND it has a mortality rate per million almost 10x lower than Sweden. Same with Norway.

I don't :(

I work directly with COVID data every day. It’s driving massive excess mortality. People dying is bad for the economy. And more people dying as we go about our life as usual would have been bad for the economy as well.

The only thing I’m skeptical of is why the US government downplayed the threat for the very beginning and refused to coordinate testing at the Federal level. Breaking up testing delays = living a more normal life.

I’ve been told by skeptics that the H1N1 outbreak was worse. Then we hit 1K-2K deaths per day. The skeptics said that the virus would die in the heat even though moderate climate countries like Ecuador were getting hit hard at the time. Then US deaths spiked over the summer. Today I’m told that Sweden actually had it right even though they’re suffering economically along with the rest of the world and have 10x the per capita deaths of their neighbors Norway and Finland.

Lock downs suck but I encourage everyone to look on the bright side. Firstly, we’re undoubtedly saving lives. Second, this whole year has been a massive proof of concept for working remote. The implications that has for high rent NIMBY cities that do not want to zone for density is huge.

Mathlete, why does everyone compare Sweden to Norway and Finland?    It's superficially an obvious comparison because they're all part of Scandinavia.   But Sweden is not that dissimilar to the UK, Italy and Spain is it?

I compared them because they’re neighboring countries with population density on the same order of magnitude and have similarly good access to healthcare. Sweden is bracketed by Norway and Finland in terms of median age with Norway being younger and Finland older.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4044 on: October 10, 2020, 08:25:46 PM »
Sweden has had the lowest increase in COVID cases during Europe's "2nd wave" with one COVID-19 death on October 5th & October 6th and zero COVID-19 deaths on October 7th.

Why does everyone keep ignoring Finland? It hasn't had any deaths recently AND it has a mortality rate per million almost 10x lower than Sweden. Same with Norway.

I don't :(

I work directly with COVID data every day. It’s driving massive excess mortality. People dying is bad for the economy. And more people dying as we go about our life as usual would have been bad for the economy as well.

The only thing I’m skeptical of is why the US government downplayed the threat for the very beginning and refused to coordinate testing at the Federal level. Breaking up testing delays = living a more normal life.

I’ve been told by skeptics that the H1N1 outbreak was worse. Then we hit 1K-2K deaths per day. The skeptics said that the virus would die in the heat even though moderate climate countries like Ecuador were getting hit hard at the time. Then US deaths spiked over the summer. Today I’m told that Sweden actually had it right even though they’re suffering economically along with the rest of the world and have 10x the per capita deaths of their neighbors Norway and Finland.

Lock downs suck but I encourage everyone to look on the bright side. Firstly, we’re undoubtedly saving lives. Second, this whole year has been a massive proof of concept for working remote. The implications that has for high rent NIMBY cities that do not want to zone for density is huge.

Mathlete, why does everyone compare Sweden to Norway and Finland?    It's superficially an obvious comparison because they're all part of Scandinavia.   But Sweden is not that dissimilar to the UK, Italy and Spain is it?

I compared them because they’re neighboring countries with population density on the same order of magnitude and have similarly good access to healthcare. Sweden is bracketed by Norway and Finland in terms of median age with Norway being younger and Finland older.

Things that affect spread and outcomes the most are: density, age and obesity rates

Please refer to this population density map and identify which countries are most like Sweden based on that metric: https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345
Densities (people/km2):
UK - 281
Spain - 94
Italy - 206
Sweden - 25
Norway - 15
Finland -18

Each of the non-Scandinavian countries have multiple cities with higher population densities and populations than Stockholm (>5000/km2). Just the parts of London that have 3x this density have nearly 50% higher population than Stockholm. London itself, whose overall density is similar to Stockholm's, has 10x more people (9m vs 0.9m). Madrid has 7x more. If one compares the densities of the surrounding metropolitan areas, Northeast italy has a similar density to the county of Stockholm (~300/km2) but with 20x more people (~20m). In fact, the UK and Italy's entirety (population 123 million) is on average 2/3 as densely populated than Stockholm county.

Regarding age >65: all the countries in question (UK, Spain, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Finland) have approximately 20% of their population in this age range so all are valid for that comparison.

Regarding obesity https://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf:
UK has the highest (27%), Finland (25%) Spain (17%), then while Sweden, Norway and Italy the lowest (12, 12, 10%).

So in general, it's a grab bag. I would say because of population densities, UK and Italy are not good comparisons to Sweden. UK again loses due to high obesity rates. Spain is probably a legitimate comparison as its density and obesity rates are lower. Norway meets all three criteria, Finland meets 2 out of 3 (loses on obesity rates).

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4045 on: October 11, 2020, 01:00:55 PM »
I could buy that.   Sweden, Norway and Finland have similarities to Canada where our population is concentrated in a small fraction of our land area.

Countries like England, Spain and Italy have much larger developed areas as a fraction of their total land area.

cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4046 on: October 11, 2020, 01:16:28 PM »
Countries like England, Spain and Italy have much larger developed areas as a fraction of their total land area.

It's even more pronounced if you look at England rather than the UK - 432 people per km2.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4047 on: October 14, 2020, 08:02:10 AM »
Central parts of the city I live in has same population density as New York (Manhattan alone has ~2.5 time that rate, btw).

If you look at Oslo, the capital of Norway it comes up with a very low density for a capital, only ~1700 ppl / square kilometer. But international websites don't know that 2/3 of the official area of Oslo is forest and noone lives in the forest.

SotI

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4048 on: October 14, 2020, 01:51:27 PM »
Well, France is just introducing curfews in quite a few cities (9pm to 6am).
So,  European lockdowns are on the rise.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4049 on: October 14, 2020, 11:06:13 PM »
Victoria, 10 cases a day: "Well I suppose we might allow you to see someone outside the house, can't reopen retail though, and you have to stay within 5km, and can only leave the house for two hours a day, also we need new powers to be able to detain people without charge or trial on the suspicion that they might not stay home when we tell them to."

UK, 10,000 cases a day: "We should probably close pubs."

"Lockdown" is a very, very broad term.