Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 225748 times)

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3950 on: September 16, 2020, 11:20:41 AM »

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3951 on: September 16, 2020, 11:23:53 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

So, anyone who disagrees with you is "basically retarded or even stupider than that"? PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

I thought my bold text made it very clear I was referring to people believing that evolution is 'conscious' or a directed process.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 11:25:31 AM by wenchsenior »

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3952 on: September 16, 2020, 12:00:37 PM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

So, anyone who disagrees with you is "basically retarded or even stupider than that"? PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

People sure are good at strawmannirg any anti-covid-lockdown stances in this thread, hey. I've been called racist just because I dared point out that our Chief Health Officer himself stated that migrant communities were virus hotspots in our state.

At the end of the day, history will give us perspective, and the final death toll will have to be aligned with the economic destruction and the deaths of despair wrought. I've previously posted stats from our government that mental health admissions to hospital were 25-33% increased in the past 2 months due to lockdown. I don't know how many young people's lives have been affected thus, but it's worthwhile doing a QALY assessment there. That's all I've been asking all along. Yet some people seem unable to conceive of our response as any sort of 'balancing exercise' at all.

The question must be asked now with about 40 cases per day in Victoria whether the further 6 weeks of complete lockdown from today [we will be locked down and curfew imposed till daily cases number <5] are justified in light of the huge mental health toll (not to mention financial toll) being wrought.

Again, my humble hypothesis is that only an elected official would take such a conservative approach to the figures. Our own Chief Health Officer suggested a thawing at about 25 cases per day. No one knows where the 5 cases per day guideline came from. I think our premier just wants to avoid the political fallout of a wave 3...but in doing so he has the blood of young people's suicides on his hands.
Well hereís the deal Bloop.

A large portion of people on this site are from the US and few are from Australia and even more from across the globe so you have a majority of people looking at it from their experience where many of us have had family, friends and people we know get covid or even die from it.

You are looking at it from your viewpoint where you and your country have been relatively shielded from the outbreak and saying see it is not that bad we should not be locked down and it is excessive.

Meanwhile we have people that have more cases / deaths in their city, county or state than your entire country. Different decisions different outcomes.

I can assure you that even with lack of restrictions mental health and associated collateral damage still occurs maybe just to a different demographic. No matter how you slice it people are going to suffer.

Someday we will know what the right strategy was but dammed if I would want to be the person in charge making decisions that will literally change everything... Dammed if you do and dammed if you donít situation.


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« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 12:06:01 PM by the_fixer »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3953 on: September 16, 2020, 03:01:31 PM »


Fake news! Everyone in this thread knows it only kills old people.  There should probably be a decrease in the younger age groups because covid probably makes you even stronger and healthier.

Quote from: abe
Age <25 had absolutely no difference in mean deaths per week.

Additionally, this is for excess deaths.  We don't know which portion is from covid.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 03:03:35 PM by HBFIRE »

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3954 on: September 16, 2020, 03:38:23 PM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

So, anyone who disagrees with you is "basically retarded or even stupider than that"? PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

I thought my bold text made it very clear I was referring to people believing that evolution is 'conscious' or a directed process.

Hello!   X-men?    Charles Xavier?     If the X-men can do it it must be much easier for a stupid virus.

I saw it at the movies.

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3955 on: September 16, 2020, 04:32:16 PM »
At this point I personally know dozens of people who have contracted COVID-19. Some have gotten extremely, extremely ill. Thankfully I do not know that any of my "people" have died. However, my elderly uncle and aunt have it now and they are not faring well. We are justifiably concerned that they may die.

My state currently has >1000 new cases per day confirmed and it has been this way for months. We are not in lockdown, but instead are in "phased reopening." Gyms and restaurants have been open for months. Dine in at a restaurant? Like . . . inside? What a terrible idea!

Masks are by far the best we can do to prevent spread short of lockdowns, and masks are mandated at the state level here, but I see completely unmasked people indoors every time I go get groceries. Assholes. If you are one of those people, then I just think you are an asshole.

It has been rampant through my children's high school friends. They have not been "out and about playing" with each other . . . they are high schoolers! Both of my children are attempting to stay in shape and they have been directly exposed to known positive cases (once in March and once in August) through workout partners. My son lifts huge heavy weights and can't safely do that alone. They do wear masks during workouts. We have gone through 14 day household quarantines each time, which means I haven't even gone out to get groceries during that time because I don't want to be responsible for accidentally infecting someone who then dies.

I really don't understand this whole "it's not a big deal we should go back to normal" mentality I am reading in some of these posts. Literally a million people have died of this new disease in just a few months. My friend who is an MD and infectious disease expert has been sleeping in the garage of his million-dollar home since March so he doesn't expose the rest of his family (he has daily high exposure). Do you think you know more about this than he does? For real?
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 06:03:32 PM by Zamboni »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3956 on: September 16, 2020, 05:19:50 PM »
At this point I personally know dozens of people who have contracted COVID-19. Some have gotten extremely, extremely ill. Thankfully I do not know that any of my "people" have died. However, my elderly uncle and aunt have it now and they are not faring well. We are justifiably concerned that they may die.

My state currently has >1000 new cases per day confirmed and it has been this way for months. We are not in lockdown, but instead are in "phased reopening." Gyms and restaurants have been open for months. Dine in at a restaurant? Like . . . inside? What a terrible idea!

Masks are by far the best we can do to prevent spread short of lockdowns, and masks are mandated at the state level here, but I see completely unmasked people indoors every time I go get groceries. Assholes. If you are one of those people, then I just think you are an asshole.

It has been rampant through my children's high school friends. They have not been "out and about playing" with each other . . . they are high schoolers! Both of my children are attempting to stay in shape and they have been directly exposed to known positive cases (once in March and once in August) through workout partners. My soon lifts huge heavy weights and can't safely do that alone. They do wear masks during workouts. We have gone through 14 day household quarantines each time, which means I haven't even gone out to get groceries during that time because I don't want to be responsible for accidentally infecting someone who then dies.

I really don't understand this whole "it's not a big deal we should go back to normal" mentality I am reading in some of these posts. Literally a million people have died of this new disease in just a few months. My friend who is an MD and infectious disease expert has been sleeping in the garage of his million-dollar home since March so he doesn't expose the rest of his family (he has daily high exposure). Do you think you know more about this than he does? For real?

I can tell you that when one of our cardiologists left there was a going away party and many staff (including other MDs) attended it. So just because you know one MD who is so paranoid that he sleeps in the garage, don't assume that every MD (or any other health care worker) out there is like that. The loudest voice is most often heard over the rest of the population who isn't out shouting all day about it.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3957 on: September 16, 2020, 05:31:48 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.

I have spoken to a couple of specialist doctors (one a physician, one a surgeon) (I think in the States you would call them MDs?) on the front line and neither was particularly concerned about transmission to or from themselves, because it's so localised (to certain hotspots) here in Melbourne, and health care workers have relatively good PPE and training, other than in aged care homes which are extremely problematic and at a couple of known hospitals which briefly had flare ups.

With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3958 on: September 16, 2020, 05:34:09 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.
...
With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

So, the lockdown is working?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3959 on: September 16, 2020, 05:59:28 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.
...
With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

So, the lockdown is working?

Yes, dammit . . . and from what I can tell from his posts that's really pissing Bloop off.

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3960 on: September 16, 2020, 06:14:13 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.

I have spoken to a couple of specialist doctors (one a physician, one a surgeon) (I think in the States you would call them MDs?) on the front line and neither was particularly concerned about transmission to or from themselves, because it's so localised (to certain hotspots) here in Melbourne, and health care workers have relatively good PPE and training, other than in aged care homes which are extremely problematic and at a couple of known hospitals which briefly had flare ups.

With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

I'm so glad it's not spreading there in Melbourne the way it is here. Where I am in the US, we are way past the tipping point for any sort of effective contact tracing. Your country's leadership is managing it much better than the USA, and I wish you could just realize that.

In contrast, South Korea never even really shut down because everyone wears masks and they had widespread social distancing, testing, and contract tracing from day one. If we had sane national leadership and people in the US, as a group, had a lick of common sense, then we would not have had this rampant spread. It was preventable. Many other countries have proven that. Instead, we are ignorant and proud of it here. It's disheartening, and it means I'm going to be semi-locked down for much longer than necessary.

My MD friend knows he is exposed daily as part of his job. He has friends, doctors and nurses, who have died of it. He is not being "paranoid." He was top of his class at Hopkins and he knows what he is dealing with. He got called in to handle their earliest cases and it as been non-stop since then. Many cardiologists probably aren't exposed daily, especially if masks are required in the facility and that requirement is enforced. I've met with my own cardiologist in the past few months . . . she's not intubating COVID-positive people, so masks and normal protocols work just fine for her and many MD's.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 06:17:52 PM by Zamboni »

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3961 on: September 16, 2020, 07:03:02 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.

I have spoken to a couple of specialist doctors (one a physician, one a surgeon) (I think in the States you would call them MDs?) on the front line and neither was particularly concerned about transmission to or from themselves, because it's so localised (to certain hotspots) here in Melbourne, and health care workers have relatively good PPE and training, other than in aged care homes which are extremely problematic and at a couple of known hospitals which briefly had flare ups.

With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

'Waaah, only other people should be under restrictions!'

Remember that it's entirely possible for an aged care worker or similar to live in a different area to where they work. They have families, they still need to go to the supermarket, etc.

There were similar concerns with the Geelong area because of how many people from Geelong work in Melbourne.

I'm so glad it's not spreading there in Melbourne the way it is here. Where I am in the US, we are way past the tipping point for any sort of effective contact tracing. Your country's leadership is managing it much better than the USA, and I wish you could just realize that.

In contrast, South Korea never even really shut down because everyone wears masks and they had widespread social distancing, testing, and contract tracing from day one. If we had sane national leadership and people in the US, as a group, had a lick of common sense, then we would not have had this rampant spread. It was preventable. Many other countries have proven that. Instead, we are ignorant and proud of it here. It's disheartening, and it means I'm going to be semi-locked down for much longer than necessary.

My MD friend knows he is exposed daily as part of his job. He has friends, doctors and nurses, who have died of it. He is not being "paranoid." He was top of his class at Hopkins and he knows what he is dealing with. He got called in to handle their earliest cases and it as been non-stop since then. Many cardiologists probably aren't exposed daily, especially if masks are required in the facility and that requirement is enforced. I've met with my own cardiologist in the past few months . . . she's not intubating COVID-positive people, so masks and normal protocols work just fine for her and many MD's.

Have any US states shut their borders to those from other states, or is that unconstitutional?

A big issue here is that a number of states have closed their borders and kept them closed, even to states with fairly low case numbers. It's kept the numbers down in those states but obviously there's implications.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 07:08:15 PM by alsoknownasDean »

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3962 on: September 16, 2020, 08:05:21 PM »

I'm so glad it's not spreading there in Melbourne the way it is here. Where I am in the US, we are way past the tipping point for any sort of effective contact tracing. Your country's leadership is managing it much better than the USA, and I wish you could just realize that.

In contrast, South Korea never even really shut down because everyone wears masks and they had widespread social distancing, testing, and contract tracing from day one. If we had sane national leadership and people in the US, as a group, had a lick of common sense, then we would not have had this rampant spread. It was preventable. Many other countries have proven that. Instead, we are ignorant and proud of it here. It's disheartening, and it means I'm going to be semi-locked down for much longer than necessary.

My MD friend knows he is exposed daily as part of his job. He has friends, doctors and nurses, who have died of it. He is not being "paranoid." He was top of his class at Hopkins and he knows what he is dealing with. He got called in to handle their earliest cases and it as been non-stop since then. Many cardiologists probably aren't exposed daily, especially if masks are required in the facility and that requirement is enforced. I've met with my own cardiologist in the past few months . . . she's not intubating COVID-positive people, so masks and normal protocols work just fine for her and many MD's.

The critical care intensivists and anesthesiologists (both of whom do intubation) also lack sticks in their asses here too. Amusingly enough the cardiologist I met with today had just had a COVID patient in the cath lab. I think that (since you do not work in a hospital), you are under the mistaken impression that cardiologists spend most of their time dealing with out patients in the office. That is far from correct.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3963 on: September 16, 2020, 08:30:37 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.

I have spoken to a couple of specialist doctors (one a physician, one a surgeon) (I think in the States you would call them MDs?) on the front line and neither was particularly concerned about transmission to or from themselves, because it's so localised (to certain hotspots) here in Melbourne, and health care workers have relatively good PPE and training, other than in aged care homes which are extremely problematic and at a couple of known hospitals which briefly had flare ups.

With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

More anecdata from Melbourne.  My wife's family has lost an elderly relative about 2 weeks ago.  My neice couldn't attend her grandmothers funeral due to restrictions.  So it does affect people in Melbourne.

Also anecdata, there were 111,000 jobs added in Australia in August, many more than expected.  Unemployment is now at 6.8%, or using a US type metric, it would be 7.9%.  So the economy is doing better than expected.

The suicide rate in Victoria to the end of June was actually slightly down compared to last year.

The idea that the CHO Brett Sutton wanted to ease restrictions with 25 cases is not what he has said at news conferences.  He had said opening at that level would, in 65% or more of models, lead to increasing cases and more lockdowns.

Fundamentally the second lock down here seems harder than the first because it is not ALL of us, but only Melbourne, and it was so unnecessary if the hotel quarantine was done properly.  But at least this lock down is being done properly and until it is truly under control.

Other states such as Western Australia have had no transmission of the virus in more than 5 months.  They can go to the pub and the footy, their economy is growing, their friends can come over for dinner.  That is where I would like all of Australia to be, and where the majority of Australians that I talk to would like the country to be. 

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3964 on: September 16, 2020, 08:34:48 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.
...
With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

So, the lockdown is working?

The question is whether the lockdown needs to continue, as it is now planned to, for another 6 weeks - yes 6 weeks - with all businesses other than essential businesses closed.

It's easy to support a 6 week lockdown when the numbers were at 700 cases per day [six weeks ago]. I in fact supported it, six weeks ago.

It's kinda hard now to support the recent 6 week extension (to 26 October) when the numbers are at 28 per day, and the trigger to come out of lockdown is <5 cases per day for 14 days. That's a ridiculously conservative approach.

It's particularly hard to support a continued lockdown when we KNOW that the active cases are overwhelmingly coming from aged care, hospital workers, and small patches in the city's NW and SE. Just lock down those patches and let the rest of the city transition to stage 3. It's not brain surgery. With <30 cases per day you can contact trace very carefully.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3965 on: September 16, 2020, 08:39:36 PM »
Quote
Other states such as Western Australia have had no transmission of the virus in more than 5 months.  They can go to the pub and the footy, their economy is growing, their friends can come over for dinner.  That is where I would like all of Australia to be, and where the majority of Australians that I talk to would like the country to be.

This is another thing I don't agree with (you can tell I'm a contrarian, but hear me out). Dan Andrews wants us to be effectively back to stage 1.5 by Christmas so we can have big (20 people) family gatherings. This requires a hugely onerous lockdown till October/November with the aim of effectively eliminating the virus. I suspect that if Andrews wasn't so gung-ho about Christmas, and was willing to keep stage 2.5 restrictions (5 people gatherings) in place over Christmas, we wouldn't need to eliminate the virus and could instead work on suppression and management, like how NSW has done it here in Australia.

I think we are going so hard - and incurring economic penalties - all for the sake of enabling large family gatherings at Xmas, and that seems to me to be a disproportionately small benefit in the scheme of things. In other words I'd be content with a longer period of stage 2 restrictions in return for a shorter period of stage 4 lockdown. And I am sure that this would help those at the fringes of society who are worried about their jobs - not about whether they can have the great-aunts over for Xmas.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3966 on: September 16, 2020, 08:51:38 PM »
At this point I personally know no one who has contracted COVID-19. That's the power of anecdata. We each live in a different societal context. However I know a lot of people whose businesses or jobs have been affected by Melbourne's lockdown.
...
With just 28 new cases today (of a state of 5 million) and most of them geographically localised, it's just an entirely different context. No doubt some parts of the U.S. are a lot riskier than here in Melbourne, which just speaks to the onerousness of our continuing curfew and lockdown.

So, the lockdown is working?

The question is whether the lockdown needs to continue, as it is now planned to, for another 6 weeks - yes 6 weeks - with all businesses other than essential businesses closed.

It's easy to support a 6 week lockdown when the numbers were at 700 cases per day [six weeks ago]. I in fact supported it, six weeks ago.

It's kinda hard now to support the recent 6 week extension (to 26 October) when the numbers are at 28 per day, and the trigger to come out of lockdown is <5 cases per day for 14 days. That's a ridiculously conservative approach.

It's particularly hard to support a continued lockdown when we KNOW that the active cases are overwhelmingly coming from aged care, hospital workers, and small patches in the city's NW and SE. Just lock down those patches and let the rest of the city transition to stage 3. It's not brain surgery. With <30 cases per day you can contact trace very carefully.

Except NSW has had 22 cases in the last week, and 21 of them are from known sources.  Looking at 14 day averages, NSW has had 59 cases at 4.2 per day, with only 5 from currently unknown sources.

Victoria has had an average of 44.9 cases per day in the last 14 days or 628 cases, and of those 83 are from an unknown source.

The two states are still nowhere near in the same place.  Until the unknown source cases head towards zero, opening up will just let the genie out of the bottle again, with more lock downs and less compliance as people get tired of it.

I agree that we are finally starting to get to where contract tracing could be done properly.  The issue is not the cases today, it is the ones that are still out there and need to be found.  That will take time.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3967 on: September 16, 2020, 09:04:26 PM »
and small patches in the city's NW and SE. Just lock down those patches

Easier to say when you don't live there.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3968 on: September 16, 2020, 10:11:56 PM »
and small patches in the city's NW and SE. Just lock down those patches

Easier to say when you don't live there.

I had a similar response to this and other posts  earlier in the day but thereís no sense continuing the conversation.

The nonsense post about Andrews having blood on his hands was what did it for me.

It is true in NSW we have a small but manageable caseload and we are still relatively open.

Honestly though? Itís dumb luck we havenít seen what Victoria has seen. There is nothing special about what we are doing, Corona is still circulating, life is still restricted. The young people who get it still suffer severe after effects of fatigue and reduced lung capacity. Death numbers are not the only measure of harmful effects.

There but for the grace of God go we.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3969 on: September 16, 2020, 10:22:57 PM »
and small patches in the city's NW and SE. Just lock down those patches

Easier to say when you don't live there.

I think it would be worth remembering that we did try that, and ended up with the harder lockdown as it didn't work.  The fundamental issue is that Melbourne is not a series of villages that can be contained.  It is a highly mobile city with links across suburbs from work, school, family, shopping and recreation.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3970 on: September 16, 2020, 10:25:22 PM »

So, the lockdown is working?

It is. If you lock everyone in their houses 23 hours a day, that will slow the spread of a communicable disease. Likewise, HIV would not spread as well if we criminalised sex before and outside marriage. That the lockdowns work is not in doubt, but whether they are proportionate or necessary, and whether their costs exceed their benefits is in doubt.

For example, in you had blood in your stool in March, you will still be waiting for a colonoscopy - and your day procedure to remove polyps has become living with a colostomy bag, and perhaps chemotherapy for liver cancer. If you had a lump in your breast in March, you won't have had a mammogram - and your breast cancer may have become lymphatic cancer. If you are a woman with endometriosis in March, you are still in pain in September.

If you had a small business in March, you will have had only 10% your income for six months. 98% of Australian businesses employ 20 or less people, and they contribute 35% of our GDP while employing about 42% of our people. If you are over 50 and become unemployed, you may never work again. Financial stresses contribute to mental health issues (suicides rise during recessions, moreso in countries with weaker social welfare safety nets), and to marriage breakups. And marriage breakups often lead to one parent being absent, and children with at least one absent parent are more likely to grow up to be teenaged parents, engage in substance abuse and minor crime, to not finish school, and so on.

The benefits of the lockdown are clear. The costs of the lockdown are now becoming clearer.

What is also clear now is that if you have a good testing and tracing system, then minor outbreaks are squashed. Victoria went from 5 cases a day to 700, but not overnight, it had to pass through 10, 20, and so on cases a day first. In one case a guard was infected at hotel quarantine, and she infected someone in her household who worked in aged care, which led to a larger outbreak killing dozens in that place. From guest --> guard --> aged care staff --> resident, at each of those steps a competent testing and tracing system could have stopped it in its tracks.

Because our contact tracing system was overwhelmed with 10 cases a day, the only solution the government could find was lockdown. Which is to say, lockdowns are a tool of incompetent governments. It is thus unsurprising that they have many costs to go along with their benefits.

This naturally raises the question as to whether the costs exceed the benefits. Coupled with this is the fact that the government, as all governments do, is also using the crisis as an excuse to arrogate more power to itself. It's interesting that regardless of the nature of a crisis - terrorism, war, crime, pollution, climate, whatever - the answer is never, "delegate more power to do so-and-so to locals and citizens." Authoritarian centralisation is always the answer.


As an example, the government is now seeking the power to forcibly detain anyone who they believe will not be willing to isolate themselves as requested. The Minister specifically gave the example of "conspiracy theorists." When the government has used its current powers to arrest people organising protests against the government, and when a police officer has been filmed stomping a man's head in, what will they do with further powers?

https://libertyvictoria.org.au/content/liberty-victoria-very-concerned-about-proposed-new-powers-introduced-covid-19-emergency
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 10:47:26 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3971 on: September 17, 2020, 12:40:36 AM »
and small patches in the city's NW and SE. Just lock down those patches

Easier to say when you don't live there.

I think it would be worth remembering that we did try that, and ended up with the harder lockdown as it didn't work.  The fundamental issue is that Melbourne is not a series of villages that can be contained.  It is a highly mobile city with links across suburbs from work, school, family, shopping and recreation.

We can't say the localised lockdowns didn't work. By then we were already well onto the upwards curve of the second wave. To say the localised lockdowns didn't work is like saying stage 3 lockdown didn't work because we ended up needing a stage 4. It's a non sequitur. In fact, because the stage 3/local lockdown/stage 4 change happened so quickly, even to this day we don't know whether the success is due to stage 3 or stage 4 or a combination of both.

As for you saying "Melbourne is not a series of villages that can be contained", the fact that we are, indeed, containing all of metro Melbourne (as a global village) makes me think that it would be possible to deem, say, 20% of Melbourne (the NW and SE) as two global villages and set up roadblocks the same way we are doing now across all of metro Melbourne, or the same way we did it in July when in fact we did the local lockdowns. You can hardly say it doesn't work when we're doing it on a larger scale (now) and when we did it on a similar scale (in July).

Alternatively, we could excise the large parts of the city that have few active cases, set up roadblocks around them and let those residents exercise more freely. Of course, in egalitarian Melbourne where people want to suffer to the extent of the lowest common denominator, that would never fly.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3972 on: September 17, 2020, 12:48:00 AM »
Or we could just not have lockdowns at all. If we had a contact tracing system that could handle more than 10 cases a day, for example.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3973 on: September 17, 2020, 03:19:13 AM »
We have a tracing and quarantine system in place which seems to - so far - be working reasonably well. The daily number of registered cases has increased a lot, for 10 to above 100 per day after the summer holidays etc, but the numbers have been stable for a couple of weeks now. The population is about 5.5 million, so 100/day isn't really a big deal. There is zero talk of any lockdown, but measures are applied locally, so if someone at say a school tests positive they move to home schooling for a week-ish.

But the system will break down if cases increase siginficantly, its quite labor-intensive to do it, but the testing capacity itself is not a limiting factor afaik.

fuzzy math

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3974 on: September 17, 2020, 08:07:41 AM »


Have any US states shut their borders to those from other states, or is that unconstitutional?

A big issue here is that a number of states have closed their borders and kept them closed, even to states with fairly low case numbers. It's kept the numbers down in those states but obviously there's implications.

Its unconstitutional. The most any state can do is restrict people by harassing them at the border and force them to quarantine upon arrival.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3975 on: September 17, 2020, 07:50:10 PM »
It's very probably unconstitutional here, too. But until it's successfully challenged in court, the roadblocks remain.


That's the thing about governments or corporations doing something illegal - it remains legal until a court steps in. And to call the legal system "glacial" is an insult to frozen water's alacrity.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3976 on: September 17, 2020, 09:10:17 PM »
One thing the government's doing well now is (finally - NSW has been doing it for months) naming and shaming covid hotspots. E.g. we now know that 5 families in Casey/Dandenong are responsible for 34 cases of covid. 34 cases doesn't sound like "a lot" but it's 15% of our weekly caseload. It's probably about 50% of the weekly caseload when you subtract cases linked to aged care/hospital clusters.

The better we can localise the geographical spread, the more effectively we can put in place measures like door knocking, mass tests for whole suburbs, etc.

By talking about the risk factors involved (in this case, it seems to have been large households/household intermingling/non-English speaking background*), we also get more transparency about what really causes the virus to spread.

*Not entirely sure why "multicultural communities" (the government's term) or NESB communities should somehow not understand basic virus hygiene but I'm just reporting what the newspapers are saying.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3977 on: September 17, 2020, 09:53:55 PM »
One thing the government's doing well now is (finally - NSW has been doing it for months) naming and shaming covid hotspots. E.g. we now know that 5 families in Casey/Dandenong are responsible for 34 cases of covid. 34 cases doesn't sound like "a lot" but it's 15% of our weekly caseload. It's probably about 50% of the weekly caseload when you subtract cases linked to aged care/hospital clusters.

The better we can localise the geographical spread, the more effectively we can put in place measures like door knocking, mass tests for whole suburbs, etc.

By talking about the risk factors involved (in this case, it seems to have been large households/household intermingling/non-English speaking background*), we also get more transparency about what really causes the virus to spread.

*Not entirely sure why "multicultural communities" (the government's term) or NESB communities should somehow not understand basic virus hygiene but I'm just reporting what the newspapers are saying.

I couldn't agree more with you regarding the naming of hotspots (but not sure about shaming, that may stop people getting tested). 

Some of the issues I have heard about this particular NESB community is a lack of basic education full stop.  They can't read or write, never attended school due to warfare in their original country and have a huge distrust of authority.  They were reluctant to reveal where they had been when it became clear they could be fined for travelling more than 5 kms and visiting others homes.  Only when that threat was removed did they start to speak more freely.

This virus has really revealed some of the issues we already had within our society, but were prepared to ignore or sweep under the carpet.