Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253745 times)

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3900 on: September 14, 2020, 07:51:23 PM »

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

It's interesting because the incitement laws were never used on the organisers of the Black Lives Matter protest. Or, from the other end of the political spectrum, they weren't used on the organisers and supporters of various abortion clinic protests during non-covid times (those protests are illegal under a different law which bans harassment of women seeking abortions). The incitement laws seem only to be targeted against lockdown protestors.

We have just found out that 25% of yesterday's new caseload can be attributed to 2 migrant family clusters in one suburb. No mention of it in the news other than in one article. No mention of it in daily discussion.

It's kinda time we lay blame where it's due - large/multigenerational family transmission - and stop acting like single people / couples living in non-hotspot suburbs carry equal risk and should therefore bear equal burden.

I just can't believe the messaging that people are happily swallowing.

Up here the government says spread is increasing because of 'social gatherings'.   I presume this to mean parties.    We're not seeing much if any enforcement - but if you're allowed to have 50 people at an indoor gathering enforcement would be hard anyway.    I mean, who's going to count and see if you have 49 or 51 people at a party to see if they can issue a ticket?


Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3901 on: September 14, 2020, 08:14:05 PM »
From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

I'm pretty sure wealth plays a big role. I'd also be considered in the upper middle class and don't remember my liberties ever being curtailed. Even so, Khruschev's quote is only partially accurate for the US!! Cite: someone who looks like Henry Louis Gates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy) likely can't take it for granted that the police state will leave them alone, while his colleagues at Harvard with a different set of physical features likely can!!

But then, we can do better than just anecdotal evidences. Look at the "Civil Liberties" score of Australia vs. US in the Democracy Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#cite_note-index2012-2.

Oh I remember that case in Cambridge. Wealth was obviously a huge factor in Mr. Gates surviving the incident intact. If Mr. Gates had been in a working class neighborhood it may not have ended so well.

As for the Democracy Index and the like, I don’t pay much attention to those indexes as they’re so subjective. What specific freedoms are we talking about? And who is to say which freedom is more important?  I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote. But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3902 on: September 14, 2020, 08:51:30 PM »
As for the Democracy Index and the like, I don’t pay much attention to those indexes as they’re so subjective. What specific freedoms are we talking about? And who is to say which freedom is more important? 
Please feel free to propose alternative quantitative methodologies.


I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote. But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.

Interesting take that free speech is intact in the US!!

It seems to me that a typical American commonly seen in the wild (i.e. the bottom 99%) got a large part of his free speech rights taken away after Citizens United!! The erosion was systemic and not direct in nature, but the effect was the same (if not worse)!! My speech was always going to be less important than Mr. Bezos' (and I have a huge amount of respect for Mr. Bezos), but now even the pretense of equality in the arena of democracy was shredded. Why do you think there is such an angst that the American democracy no longer represent the people??!!

I think we may also disagree on how to "measure" freedom. To me the freedom of the most vulnerable part of the polity is the most important indicator.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3903 on: September 15, 2020, 03:14:14 AM »
From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

I'm pretty sure wealth plays a big role. I'd also be considered in the upper middle class and don't remember my liberties ever being curtailed. Even so, Khruschev's quote is only partially accurate for the US!! Cite: someone who looks like Henry Louis Gates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy) likely can't take it for granted that the police state will leave them alone, while his colleagues at Harvard with a different set of physical features likely can!!

But then, we can do better than just anecdotal evidences. Look at the "Civil Liberties" score of Australia vs. US in the Democracy Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#cite_note-index2012-2.

Oh I remember that case in Cambridge. Wealth was obviously a huge factor in Mr. Gates surviving the incident intact. If Mr. Gates had been in a working class neighborhood it may not have ended so well.

As for the Democracy Index and the like, I don’t pay much attention to those indexes as they’re so subjective. What specific freedoms are we talking about? And who is to say which freedom is more important?  I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote. But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

StashingAway

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3904 on: September 15, 2020, 06:11:49 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3905 on: September 15, 2020, 06:30:34 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.
Then you need to explain your "crummy free speech rights" comment.  Perhaps you could do so in relation to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights as interpreted and guaranteed by the European Court of Human Rights?

(Note for the uninformed: Brexit means leaving the EU but not the ECHR, so will not change the obligation of the UK to comply with the ECHR including Article 10.)

StashingAway

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3906 on: September 15, 2020, 07:24:04 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.
Then you need to explain your "crummy free speech rights" comment.  Perhaps you could do so in relation to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights as interpreted and guaranteed by the European Court of Human Rights?

(Note for the uninformed: Brexit means leaving the EU but not the ECHR, so will not change the obligation of the UK to comply with the ECHR including Article 10.)

I don't need to explain jack. I didn't make a crummy comment and I really don't have a dog in this fight, other than to point out that you used a straw man argument which you are doubling down on right now.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 07:26:06 AM by StashingAway »

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3907 on: September 15, 2020, 07:32:47 AM »
Do you mean that in the UK the politicians and TV talking heads can't openly incite violence against minorities?  I'm OK with that.

Nice straw man argument. Perhaps try to envision why someone would think otherwise? Use the old debate tactic of arguing the side you disagree with? There are plenty of good reasons why someone would be passionate about free speech. Casually tossing those aside shows lack of empathy and willing discussion.
Then you need to explain your "crummy free speech rights" comment.  Perhaps you could do so in relation to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights as interpreted and guaranteed by the European Court of Human Rights?

(Note for the uninformed: Brexit means leaving the EU but not the ECHR, so will not change the obligation of the UK to comply with the ECHR including Article 10.)

I don't need to explain jack. I didn't make a crummy comment and I really don't have a dog in this fight, other than to point out that you used a straw man argument which you are doubling down on right now.
I made a request for an explanation of what I consider an unjustified comment.  You may interpret it as a strawman argument if you wish, but the request was not addressed to you so so your deliberate(?) misinterpretation of my request for clarification, followed by refusing to engage with the original question, becomes a failed distraction.  My point remains unanswered: in what respect are UK free speech rights, protected  by the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Court of Human Rights, "crummy"?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3908 on: September 15, 2020, 07:44:13 AM »
I don’t much care about voting practices: I don’t vote.

Whether or not you vote, voting practices are very important.  They're the bedrock that a democratic system is built on.  Without them, democracy tends to collapse, and I suspect that many of the freedoms you currently enjoy would be missed once they're gone.


But I do care about free speech with a passion. A country with very good voting practices but with crummy free speech rights like the UK doesn’t belong in the same category as a country such as the US where even (gasp!) extremely offensive speech is legal.

There are plenty of limits to free speech in the US:
- incitement to suicide
- incitement to immediate violence
- defamation
- perjury
- child pornography
- obscenity
- threatening the president
- intellectual property

Which speech rights in the UK are radically different?

StashingAway

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3909 on: September 15, 2020, 08:46:57 AM »
I made a request for an explanation of what I consider an unjustified comment.  You may interpret it as a strawman argument if you wish, but the request was not addressed to you so so your deliberate(?) misinterpretation of my request for clarification, followed by refusing to engage with the original question, becomes a failed distraction.  My point remains unanswered: in what respect are UK free speech rights, protected  by the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Court of Human Rights, "crummy"?

You did NOT make a reasonable request on good faith. You moved the goalposts. I refused to answer because I don't believe that you are open to any answer I give. Therefore, I am not playing the game. I don't need to "interpret" it as a straw-man. It IS a straw man. Like I said, I don't have to defend anything because the game is rigged. The conversation is bunk. There's no hope for reasonable communication. We're all just floating around on this messy ball of social media, not admitting our own faults somehow thinking that there's going to be some reward for winning an argument (being correct is not the point, the point is to win here).

None of this is being done with an honest attempt to understand each other. So, what's the point? Get going until our collective blood pressure hits escape velocity? Trying to nit pick our way through some policy as though it's going to make a difference? Is anyone going to change their mind? Nah... so why not just throw wrenches at each other?


RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3910 on: September 15, 2020, 09:13:41 AM »
Some of you are getting way off topic and are derailing the thread way past foam levels.  If you want a discussion on free speech go start a thread.  This thread is basically about covid policy.


frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3911 on: September 15, 2020, 09:25:35 AM »
This thread has been about australia and their covid policy for most of the thread, despite them barely having covid.  The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia. 

Longwaytogo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3912 on: September 15, 2020, 10:08:46 AM »
This thread has been about australia and their covid policy for most of the thread, despite them barely having covid.  The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

True...and more recently Pelosi's hair :D

I don't know my county numbers off hand but my state has 4 times the deaths of Australia.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3913 on: September 15, 2020, 10:20:10 AM »
The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

Oakland county?  ~ 20 k cases and 1200 deaths, no?   How do you figure 8x?  Last I checked AU has around 30 K cases and approaching 1 K deaths.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 10:22:34 AM by HBFIRE »

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3914 on: September 15, 2020, 10:27:34 AM »
This thread has been about australia and their covid policy for most of the thread, despite them barely having covid.  The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

I don't really care which country we talk about as long as we stay on topic.  It should be useful to see how things are working out in different areas based on health actions taken or not taken, but there hasn't been much of that recently.  It should also be useful to discuss support measures to help those worst affected financially, so that health policies and economics don't conflict, but we aren't seeing much of that discussion either.

In a way it is all just hot air, because if we vent here instead of pressuring our political class to be more effective,  based on what is effective elsewhere, nothing will change.


DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3915 on: September 15, 2020, 10:29:09 AM »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3916 on: September 15, 2020, 10:32:27 AM »
Please feel free to propose alternative quantitative methodologies.

Sure. A personal freedom index is more meaningful. As would be the ability to rank specific liberties in priority order. What’s important to me is probably different from the next person. So for example you could have 10 or so metrics such as “Free and fair elections” and “hate speech prohibitions” and “ability to own firearms” and “ability to retain earnings” etc.  And you could rank from 1-10 what is important to you which would calculate the weighting. So in my case free speech issues and ability to retain earnings would be high on the priority list while elections would be very low.

Quote

Interesting take that free speech is intact in the US!!

It seems to me that a typical American commonly seen in the wild (i.e. the bottom 99%) got a large part of his free speech rights taken away after Citizens United!! The erosion was systemic and not direct in nature, but the effect was the same (if not worse)!! My speech was always going to be less important than Mr. Bezos' (and I have a huge amount of respect for Mr. Bezos), but now even the pretense of equality in the arena of democracy was shredded. Why do you think there is such an angst that the American democracy no longer represent the people??!!

I think we may also disagree on how to "measure" freedom. To me the freedom of the most vulnerable part of the polity is the most important indicator.

We do disagree on what’s important. To me Citizens United just wasn’t all that important except for it being a refreshingly honest assessment of how our political system works. No ones rights were “taken away.” The courts simply acknowledged that money talks.  OK. Niki noted that long before Citizens United came about (see quote below). In my view we can choose to gnash our teeth about how that works or acknowledge the truth and work on accumulating our own wealth so that we too have power. I see the latter as a better course of action. YMMV.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3917 on: September 15, 2020, 10:49:51 AM »
We’ve been duly admonished to stick to COVID.

Any new ideas for control of the outbreak beyond what we’re already doing?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3918 on: September 15, 2020, 10:54:04 AM »
The county I live in has 5X as many cases and over 8X as many coronavirus deaths as the entire continent of australia.

Oakland county?  ~ 20 k cases and 1200 deaths, no?   How do you figure 8x?  Last I checked AU has around 30 K cases and approaching 1 K deaths.

I was looking at the wrong figure.  Those figures are for my state, not my county. 

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3919 on: September 15, 2020, 11:01:54 AM »
nothing will change.

FTFY

Not sure why you wrote this?  Lots has changed, here in Canada, Ontario and Ottawa, to zoom in geographically.  We have gone from no masks to total indoor masks, we have figured out how to protect nursing homes, we continue to have priority shopping hours, we are carefully starting school, Ottawa libraries are now circulating actual paper books, we are doing region-based levels of opening.  Lots of us have figured out Zoom.  Lots of us gardened more this year.  Lots of us worked from home this year.  We have mostly not made this political (there are exceptions).

Politicians surprised us, or lived up to expectations.  Doug Ford has done a reasonable job this year, with some blunders, and believe me it was unexpected, at least by me.  Maritime premiers kept their numbers low, despite other difficulties.  Most premiers, and the PM, listened to their health advisers.  Jason Kenny, from what I read, is not being very useful in support of his health system (any Albertans want to comment?).

Our numbers fluctuate (flat well into August, now up a bit), but we have basically coped.

We've managed one provincial election and have another next month.  We expect our elections to be well run, and that expectation hasn't changed.

We had trouble getting PPE from our usual sources (China and the US), more is now being made in Canada.  A more Canadian priority to sourcing will probably continue, since our governments realized our vulnerability.    Both the US and China are now seen as unreliable sources for essential supplies because of political pressures.

So "nothing will change"  isn't accurate overall.  It is accurate if citizens are not happy about things but do nothing. 


DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3920 on: September 15, 2020, 11:02:59 AM »
Sorry, I was referring to the US.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3921 on: September 15, 2020, 11:37:02 AM »
Sorry, I was referring to the US.

It's an international discussion, you need to state country where applicable.   ;-)

I hope you are wrong that nothing will change in the US, because from here it looks like you are heading for disaster.  The very fact that people can question that a sitting President would refuse to leave office if he loses the election is extremely troubling.  The handling of the pandemic is troubling.  What happened to the country that tightened it's collective belts and pulled together in WWII?  The focus on individuality and rights has neglected the social community and any focus on responsibility.  I see it here too but to a much lesser degree.  It all makes me feel old and a stranger in a strange land.

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3922 on: September 15, 2020, 11:53:37 AM »
Sorry, I was referring to the US.

It's an international discussion, you need to state country where applicable.   ;-)

I hope you are wrong that nothing will change in the US, because from here it looks like you are heading for disaster.  The very fact that people can question that a sitting President would refuse to leave office if he loses the election is extremely troubling.  The handling of the pandemic is troubling.  What happened to the country that tightened it's collective belts and pulled together in WWII?  The focus on individuality and rights has neglected the social community and any focus on responsibility.  I see it here too but to a much lesser degree.  It all makes me feel old and a stranger in a strange land.

In fairness, people thought the same thing about President Bush. I think people tend to try too hard to compare Republicans to dictators.

As far as what changed between WWII and now, I can't say with any degree of certainty, simply because I wasn't around in WWII times. Was the nation really that united? Or did the crazies simply not have a platform from which to shout their ideas? If I had to venture a guess, I'd say that mainstream media is probably the biggest culprit in dividing Americans. I don't think other countries have anything quite as absurd as the 24 hour news channels we have.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3923 on: September 15, 2020, 02:57:58 PM »
Sorry, I was referring to the US.

It's an international discussion, you need to state country where applicable.   ;-)

I hope you are wrong that nothing will change in the US, because from here it looks like you are heading for disaster.  The very fact that people can question that a sitting President would refuse to leave office if he loses the election is extremely troubling.  The handling of the pandemic is troubling.  What happened to the country that tightened it's collective belts and pulled together in WWII?  The focus on individuality and rights has neglected the social community and any focus on responsibility.  I see it here too but to a much lesser degree.  It all makes me feel old and a stranger in a strange land.

In fairness, people thought the same thing about President Bush. I think people tend to try too hard to compare Republicans to dictators.

As far as what changed between WWII and now, I can't say with any degree of certainty, simply because I wasn't around in WWII times. Was the nation really that united? Or did the crazies simply not have a platform from which to shout their ideas? If I had to venture a guess, I'd say that mainstream media is probably the biggest culprit in dividing Americans. I don't think other countries have anything quite as absurd as the 24 hour news channels we have.

I was not comparing Trump to Bush.  I was comparing the US attitude to other countries.  The Parliamentary system has it's own issues and faults, but a close election simply means a minority government.  We actually have one now.  It means whoever is PM has to have policies that are supported by another party.  It doesn't mean chaos, or fighting in the media or the streets.

The how to deal with Covid is what was troubling to me.  The political divide has dictated approach.  It is encouraging that some Republican governors seem to be dropping the politics and looking at the medical information.   Of course we have a lot more than before, although we don't have even 4 seasons worth yet.  Our federal and provincial governments are worrying about winter, since given our climate we are inside a lot more in winter, and of course school has started.  No-one has all the answers, we are just trying to figure out best practice as we go.
 
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 03:05:30 PM by RetiredAt63 »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3924 on: September 15, 2020, 03:29:44 PM »

I was not comparing Trump to Bush.  I was comparing the US attitude to other countries.  The Parliamentary system has it's own issues and faults, but a close election simply means a minority government.  We actually have one now.  It means whoever is PM has to have policies that are supported by another party.  It doesn't mean chaos, or fighting in the media or the streets.

The how to deal with Covid is what was troubling to me.  The political divide has dictated approach.  It is encouraging that some Republican governors seem to be dropping the politics and looking at the medical information.   Of course we have a lot more than before, although we don't have even 4 seasons worth yet.  Our federal and provincial governments are worrying about winter, since given our climate we are inside a lot more in winter, and of course school has started.  No-one has all the answers, we are just trying to figure out best practice as we go.

My question is US based. What steps can we realistically take given the situation? In my view there isn’t much given the practical constraints.

So let’s expand testing!  OK is there even a demand for additional tests? If we run them can the existing labs handle them? So far the answer seems to be NO.

So let’s do more contact tracing! OK. So how is that going to work? We’re assuming that people will provide information about their contacts, and assuming you can find them in the first place. Or that they’ll answer the phone call.  The experience so far a lot of those contacted will refuse to provide who they’ve been in contact with.

So what else is left? Are we going to try another shut down? Mandatory face masks for those who aren’t already wearing them? I’d like to see how that’s going to be enforced.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3925 on: September 15, 2020, 05:08:45 PM »

I was not comparing Trump to Bush.  I was comparing the US attitude to other countries.  The Parliamentary system has it's own issues and faults, but a close election simply means a minority government.  We actually have one now.  It means whoever is PM has to have policies that are supported by another party.  It doesn't mean chaos, or fighting in the media or the streets.

The how to deal with Covid is what was troubling to me.  The political divide has dictated approach.  It is encouraging that some Republican governors seem to be dropping the politics and looking at the medical information.   Of course we have a lot more than before, although we don't have even 4 seasons worth yet.  Our federal and provincial governments are worrying about winter, since given our climate we are inside a lot more in winter, and of course school has started.  No-one has all the answers, we are just trying to figure out best practice as we go.

My question is US based. What steps can we realistically take given the situation? In my view there isn’t much given the practical constraints.

So let’s expand testing!  OK is there even a demand for additional tests? If we run them can the existing labs handle them? So far the answer seems to be NO.

So let’s do more contact tracing! OK. So how is that going to work? We’re assuming that people will provide information about their contacts, and assuming you can find them in the first place. Or that they’ll answer the phone call.  The experience so far a lot of those contacted will refuse to provide who they’ve been in contact with.

So what else is left? Are we going to try another shut down? Mandatory face masks for those who aren’t already wearing them? I’d like to see how that’s going to be enforced.


More propaganda. There's always a desire for more of that. More fear, more pitting people against each other. The news was on at work today and as if "anti maskers" wasn't bad enough I heard "half maskers" (ppl who don't cover their nose). OMG. More reminders why my TV is off.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3926 on: September 15, 2020, 05:16:02 PM »
If I were religious I would be praying for you.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3927 on: September 15, 2020, 06:03:58 PM »
If I were religious I would be praying for you.

That’s about the best solution I’ve seen so far. We are glued, screwed, and tattooed. By the time our next political messiah comes to power it’ll be mid winter.

At least the chances of surviving once you contract it seem to be improving.

Zamboni

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3928 on: September 15, 2020, 08:53:05 PM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3929 on: September 15, 2020, 09:47:13 PM »
Here's the latest data on excess deaths per the CDC. I've only graphed April-July as August data is not mature yet. All age groups >25 have seen statistically significant increase in excess deaths, associated with age. Age <25 had absolutely no difference in mean deaths per week.

Source (which provides time-series graphs): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Mean excess deaths per age group from this time period were:
Age 25-44: 877/2619 = 33% increase
Age 45-64: 2089/10180 = 20% increase
Age 65-74: 2925/9872 = 30% increase
Age 75-84: 3357/12233 = 27% increase
Age 85+   : 3601/15972 = 23% increase

What is interesting is the proportional increase in excess deaths is not wildly different between age groups. Part of this is the artificially wide age groupings (a 45 year old person's risk of death is much lower than a 64 year old's, for example).
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 10:05:22 PM by Abe »

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3930 on: September 15, 2020, 09:57:49 PM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

Self censoring before I start labelling the virus as smarter than a few people.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3931 on: September 16, 2020, 07:47:16 AM »
Here's the latest data on excess deaths per the CDC. I've only graphed April-July as August data is not mature yet. All age groups >25 have seen statistically significant increase in excess deaths, associated with age. Age <25 had absolutely no difference in mean deaths per week.

Source (which provides time-series graphs): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Mean excess deaths per age group from this time period were:
Age 25-44: 877/2619 = 33% increase
Age 45-64: 2089/10180 = 20% increase
Age 65-74: 2925/9872 = 30% increase
Age 75-84: 3357/12233 = 27% increase
Age 85+   : 3601/15972 = 23% increase

What is interesting is the proportional increase in excess deaths is not wildly different between age groups. Part of this is the artificially wide age groupings (a 45 year old person's risk of death is much lower than a 64 year old's, for example).

Fake news! Everyone in this thread knows it only kills old people.  There should probably be a decrease in the younger age groups because covid probably makes you even stronger and healthier. 

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3932 on: September 16, 2020, 07:50:56 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3933 on: September 16, 2020, 07:59:38 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3934 on: September 16, 2020, 08:17:19 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction. 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3935 on: September 16, 2020, 08:56:22 AM »
Here's the latest data on excess deaths per the CDC. I've only graphed April-July as August data is not mature yet. All age groups >25 have seen statistically significant increase in excess deaths, associated with age. Age <25 had absolutely no difference in mean deaths per week.

Source (which provides time-series graphs): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Mean excess deaths per age group from this time period were:
Age 25-44: 877/2619 = 33% increase
Age 45-64: 2089/10180 = 20% increase
Age 65-74: 2925/9872 = 30% increase
Age 75-84: 3357/12233 = 27% increase
Age 85+   : 3601/15972 = 23% increase

What is interesting is the proportional increase in excess deaths is not wildly different between age groups. Part of this is the artificially wide age groupings (a 45 year old person's risk of death is much lower than a 64 year old's, for example).

Fake news! Everyone in this thread knows it only kills old people.  There should probably be a decrease in the younger age groups because covid probably makes you even stronger and healthier.

The younger deaths could be deaths of despair, for all we know. What we know for certain is that no one under 33 in Australia has died and only 4 people under 50. That's in a nation of 25 million people with 800 or so covid deaths. Median age of death is in the mid 80s.

Although I suspect the actual covid case fatality rate is lower than reported, for two reasons:
- Many asymptomatic cases are slipping through the net
- Here in Australia, anyone with covid in their system who dies is labelled a "covid death" which might explain why the mortality rate for 80+ is ridiculously high (25%).

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3936 on: September 16, 2020, 09:25:32 AM »
Will be interesting to see if the trend continues to head toward a much lower than the expected deaths through the end of the year as all of the extremely high risk people who would have died from more normal winter illnesses will already have passed earlier in the year.

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3937 on: September 16, 2020, 09:32:54 AM »
Here's the latest data on excess deaths per the CDC. I've only graphed April-July as August data is not mature yet. All age groups >25 have seen statistically significant increase in excess deaths, associated with age. Age <25 had absolutely no difference in mean deaths per week.

Source (which provides time-series graphs): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Mean excess deaths per age group from this time period were:
Age 25-44: 877/2619 = 33% increase
Age 45-64: 2089/10180 = 20% increase
Age 65-74: 2925/9872 = 30% increase
Age 75-84: 3357/12233 = 27% increase
Age 85+   : 3601/15972 = 23% increase

What is interesting is the proportional increase in excess deaths is not wildly different between age groups. Part of this is the artificially wide age groupings (a 45 year old person's risk of death is much lower than a 64 year old's, for example).

Fake news! Everyone in this thread knows it only kills old people.  There should probably be a decrease in the younger age groups because covid probably makes you even stronger and healthier.

You're making an assumption that all excess deaths are covid.

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3938 on: September 16, 2020, 10:06:05 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3939 on: September 16, 2020, 10:09:29 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that. 

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3940 on: September 16, 2020, 10:16:29 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

Just wait and see how the science education of this country is when a vaccine hypothetically is available next month...

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3941 on: September 16, 2020, 10:25:40 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

Just wait and see how the science education of this country is when a vaccine hypothetically is available next month...

From everything I understand and have read about vaccine testing, it is not possible to guarantee the safety of a vaccine developed that quickly.  It's very concerning to me, not just the dubious claims of a vaccine being ready . . . but the damage that releasing a vaccine that doesn't work (or even does damage to people) will do to trust in medicine and science in general.  This is very concerning to me.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3942 on: September 16, 2020, 10:29:24 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

So, anyone who disagrees with you is "basically retarded or even stupider than that"? PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3943 on: September 16, 2020, 10:52:42 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

Just wait and see how the science education of this country is when a vaccine hypothetically is available next month...

From everything I understand and have read about vaccine testing, it is not possible to guarantee the safety of a vaccine developed that quickly.  It's very concerning to me, not just the dubious claims of a vaccine being ready . . . but the damage that releasing a vaccine that doesn't work (or even does damage to people) will do to trust in medicine and science in general.  This is very concerning to me.

It really isn’t possible to complete the necessary safety/efficacy testing that quickly, no matter how politically expedient it may be for the ruling party. AstraZeneca did the right thing by suspending their trial when a subject developed a significant potential adverse effect. Such suspensions should happen any time an event like that occurs, because this is the point in the process when researchers have to identify causal links between the tested vaccine and potential adverse effects.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3944 on: September 16, 2020, 10:55:03 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

That's not what wenchsenior was referring to, see the portion they bolded.

Also, please avoid using the r word.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3945 on: September 16, 2020, 10:59:35 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

So, anyone who disagrees with you is "basically retarded or even stupider than that"? PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

People sure are good at strawmannirg any anti-covid-lockdown stances in this thread, hey. I've been called racist just because I dared point out that our Chief Health Officer himself stated that migrant communities were virus hotspots in our state.

At the end of the day, history will give us perspective, and the final death toll will have to be aligned with the economic destruction and the deaths of despair wrought. I've previously posted stats from our government that mental health admissions to hospital were 25-33% increased in the past 2 months due to lockdown. I don't know how many young people's lives have been affected thus, but it's worthwhile doing a QALY assessment there. That's all I've been asking all along. Yet some people seem unable to conceive of our response as any sort of 'balancing exercise' at all.

The question must be asked now with about 40 cases per day in Victoria whether the further 6 weeks of complete lockdown from today [we will be locked down and curfew imposed till daily cases number <5] are justified in light of the huge mental health toll (not to mention financial toll) being wrought.

Again, my humble hypothesis is that only an elected official would take such a conservative approach to the figures. Our own Chief Health Officer suggested a thawing at about 25 cases per day. No one knows where the 5 cases per day guideline came from. I think our premier just wants to avoid the political fallout of a wave 3...but in doing so he has the blood of young people's suicides on his hands.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3946 on: September 16, 2020, 11:00:08 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

So, anyone who disagrees with you is "basically retarded or even stupider than that"? PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

No. That statement is completely unrelated to covid, or my personal opinions regarding covid.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that, period. 

MOD NOTE: Yeah, lets not with that.

From a subsequent post by you:

"Apologies to anyone offended by the r word.  My intent was to disparage the entire species, not any one particular group."

Disparaging everyone by comparing them to a group assumes that it is an insult to be a part of that group (membership of which is not within that person's control). Just as disparaging people for their skin color, a trait they didn't choose, is not okay.

Cheers!
« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 01:02:04 PM by arebelspy »

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3947 on: September 16, 2020, 11:05:33 AM »
PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

I'd like to add some context to this as I think the bolded is misleading. You're probably referring to Dr. Anders Tegnell who said:

Quote
Face masks can be a complement to other things when other things are safely in place. But to start with having face masks and then think you can crowd your buses or your shopping malls - that's definitely a mistake.

Quote
There could be a role for face masks if you have a high frequency of occurrence in a limited geographic area and you want to do whatever you can to prevent it from happening as soon as possible

Somehow a number of news outlets have spun this into headlines like "Sweden’s disease expert says just wearing face masks could be ‘very dangerous’"

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3948 on: September 16, 2020, 11:17:19 AM »
^That is why I have been trying to get my family to contract COVID as late as possible. Doctors are figuring out better how to treat it and the virus itself is mutating to become less lethal over time (if it is a smart virus . . . not that viruses have brains . . . it knows that a less lethal, more contagious virus will spread faster and further.)

The virus doesn't know shit, it's just the consequences of the forces of nature.  Kind of like saying water is smart, or it knows it needs to follow the path of least resistance and get to the lowest point possible - it doesn't know anything, that's just how natural forces work.

It's the short way of saying natural selection will favour the spread of more benign versions of the virus.  Corona virus colds are just colds, because it is easier for a virus to spread if the host is out and about and sneezing instead of home in bed exposing almost no one.  This is not universal, it is advantageous for a pathogen to make it's host sick if it is spread by a vector.  You are less likely to slap that mosquito if you have a high fever.

Yes, but I have seen too many people have a misunderstanding about this.  The way it's usually explained is that the virus is smart, and the virus is making a conscious decision to become less lethal over time to increase its survival odds.  Perhaps zamboni understands the distinction, but the way it is phrased isn't clear, and I've see far too many people not understand the distinction and actually claim the virus is making a conscious decision to evolve in a particular direction.

Christ on a cracker!  If people believe this kind of nonsense, then science education is even more abysmal than I thought.

Uh hello, there are a ton of people in this thread that don't believe this virus is a legitimate threat, and a huge movement of people that refuse to wear masks or socially distance.  The average person is basically retarded, and half the population is even stupider than that.

That's not what wenchsenior was referring to, see the portion they bolded.

Also, please avoid using the r word.

It's entirely related, I was just providing more examples of people fundamentally misunderstanding science that is clear.

Apologies to anyone offended by the r word.  My intent was to disparage the entire species, not any one particular group.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3949 on: September 16, 2020, 11:20:34 AM »
PhD epidemiologists and other public health experts in Sweden have been discouraging the use of masks in their country, since the beginning of this pandemic. Last I checked, daily deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden were down around 1 person/day, in a country of over 10MM people. Sure wish things in my state were anywhere even close to that good.

I'd like to add some context to this as I think the bolded is misleading. You're probably referring to Dr. Anders Tegnell who said:

Quote
Face masks can be a complement to other things when other things are safely in place. But to start with having face masks and then think you can crowd your buses or your shopping malls - that's definitely a mistake.

Quote
There could be a role for face masks if you have a high frequency of occurrence in a limited geographic area and you want to do whatever you can to prevent it from happening as soon as possible

Somehow a number of news outlets have spun this into headlines like "Sweden’s disease expert says just wearing face masks could be ‘very dangerous’"

You're probably right. Saying that Tegnell, etal, are *discouraging* mask use is misleading. Tegnell's not telling anyone, "don't wear a mask." He does say, however, and I've seen it happening irl here in the US, that mask wearing can lead some people to have a false sense of security. The idea that it's okay to pack a bunch of people into a small room, with no ventilation, for hours and hours, and it's all okay, "because everyone is wearing a mask," is pretty dumb, IMHO.